This page is for internal use by members of this project.
It can also be accessed from "http://www.cs.cmu.edu/afs/cs/project/theo-35/fmri/www/"
inside the ".cmu.edu" domain.
-
visual displays of means and variances -
for subject 02882:
mean,
var,
stdev
- for subject 02930:
mean,
var,
stdev
-
Using neural network to predict left broca(t+1) from left broca(t).Initial
results show the average RMS error for neural net is 35.1, compared
to 47.3 when using voxel mean as the prediction, and 44.7 when using the
previous voxel value as the prediction.
More detailed results on a later
run include the partial derivatives of the predictions.
-
Using linear regression to predict left broca(t) from left broca(t-1,..,t-N).
N varies from 1 to 10.Results show that the
RMS error on the testing set varies from 36.0 to 79.6 as the width of the
time window goes from 1 up to 10, when absolute values are predicted from
absolute values. Best results are achieved for small time windows. Similar
results are achived when predicting the first difference of the signal
from a window of time-lagged first differences. The best overall result
of 38.4 is obtained with time window of three.
A comparison between typical true and predicted results for linear
regression on the training set is shown below. The prediction was
based on a time window of size three.
The same comparison for the corresponding testing set:
-
Using k nearest neighbors to predict left broca(t) from left broca(t-1,..,t-N).
N varies from 1 to 10, and k varies from 1 to 7. Results
show
the best RMS error is achieved when predicting absolute values, and for
small time windows and as many nearest neighbors as possible. The best
result is 38.9, for N=2 and k=7. In contrast, predicting first differences
with kNN did not perform well - the best result was 56.8, again for N=2
and k=7.
These results can be compared against two baselines
:
using the mean as prediction and using the previous value in the time series.
The mean value yielded a high RMSE of 49.2. When using the most recent
value as a predictor, the error was somewhat lower (45.5), but not by a
lot.
-
More detailed results on
regression This
chart shows the performance of linear regression when predicting absolute
values of the fifteen voxels in left Broca with a window of three time
slices. Of those fifteen voxels, eight are linearly predictable, while
the other seven are not.
The regression coefficients are visualized in the image below.
Black corresponds to negative and white corresponds to positive coefficients.
A pixel with coordinates (x,y), counted from the upper left corner of the
image, corresponds to the coefficient relating input x to output y - that
is, the image corresponds to a Jacobian matrix in its layout. The time
delayed vector of inputs has time slice t-N to the left and time slice
t-1 to the right.
The image below shows the correlation matrix of the activation signals
of the fifteen voxels in left Broca. White color corresponds to strong
positive correlation, and black to no (zero) correlation.
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Using neural network to predict lb,lt(t+1) from lb,lt(t).Initial
results . RMS prediction error 33.31, compared to 41.45 using means
to predict.
-
Using neural network to predict lt(t+1) from lb(t).Initial
results . RMS prediction error 31.82, compared to 39.07 using means
to predict.
-
Using neural network to predict lb(t+1) from lt(t).Initial
results RMS prediction error 38.89, compared to 47.1 using means to
predict.
Predicting lb(t+1) from lb(t) for 02882 - PP&RRC
Method |
Error on raw data |
Error on percentages |
linear regression |
35.4030 |
35.3599 |
kernel regression |
36.7323 |
44.2866 |
k nearest neighbors |
37.6975 |
40.3757 |
latest value |
44.3493 |
44.3493 |
mean value |
47.9650 |
47.9650 |
Predicting lb(t+1) from lb(t) for 02882 - PP
Method |
Error on raw data |
Error on percentages |
linear regression |
36.9842 |
37.1254 |
kernel regression |
37.1057 |
44.2537 |
k nearest neighbors |
37.8392 |
40.1486 |
latest value |
44.2351 |
44.2351 |
mean value |
46.8361 |
46.8361 |
Predicting lb(t+1) from lb(t) for 02882 - RRC
Method |
Error on raw data |
Error on percentages |
linear regression |
37.3158 |
37.3919 |
kernel regression |
38.4470 |
44.9196 |
k nearest neighbors |
38.3039 |
40.8477 |
latest value |
44.4042 |
44.4042 |
mean value |
47.3010 |
47.3010 |
Predicting lt(t+1) from lt(t) for 02882 - PP&RRC
Method |
Error on raw data |
Error on percentages |
linear regression |
31.2933 |
31.1898 |
kernel regression |
31.2634 |
33.4739 |
k nearest neighbors |
32.0502 |
40.3757 |
latest value |
38.5323 |
38.5323 |
mean value |
39.8031 |
39.8031 |
Predicting lt(t+1) from lt(t) for 02882 - PP
Method |
Error on raw data |
Error on percentages |
linear regression |
34.2106 |
34.1594 |
kernel regression |
31.8218 |
37.0377 |
k nearest neighbors |
32.2334 |
34.2376 |
latest value |
39.0910 |
39.0910 |
mean value |
39.3279 |
39.3279 |
Predicting lt(t+1) from lt(t) for 02882 - RRC
Method |
Error on raw data |
Error on percentages |
linear regression |
34.1592 |
33.8042 |
kernel regression |
31.9268 |
35.8551 |
k nearest neighbors |
31.5950 |
33.1942 |
latest value |
38.2995 |
38.2995 |
mean value |
37.5290 |
37.5290 |
Predicting lb,lt(t+1) from lb,lt(t) for 02882 - PP&RRC
Method |
Error on raw data |
Error on percentages |
linear regression |
32.9781 |
32.9912 |
kernel regression |
32.9026 |
38.3856 |
k nearest neighbors |
33.4124 |
34.7364 |
latest value |
40.2931 |
40.2931 |
mean value |
42.3672 |
42.3672 |
Predicting lb,lt(t+1) from lb,lt(t) for 02882 - PP
Method |
Error on raw data |
Error on percentages |
linear regression |
36.6374 |
36.5897 |
kernel regression |
33.5188 |
38.6737 |
k nearest neighbors |
33.2764 |
35.0448 |
latest value |
40.6927 |
40.6927 |
mean value |
41.7719 |
41.7719 |
Predicting lb,lt(t+1) from lb,lt(t) for 02882 - RRC
Method |
Error on raw data |
Error on percentages |
linear regression |
37.4406 |
37.3416 |
kernel regression |
33.8780 |
38.2591 |
k nearest neighbors |
33.1496 |
34.6820 |
latest value |
40.2573 |
40.2573 |
mean value |
40.6477 |
40.6477 |
Predicting lb(t+1) from lb(t) for 02930 - PP&RRC
Method |
Error on raw data |
Error on percentages |
linear regression |
36.0740 |
36.0824 |
kernel regression |
35.5461 |
39.0011 |
k nearest neighbors |
36.2593 |
38.3240 |
latest value |
44.5436 |
44.5436 |
mean value |
40.2094 |
40.2094 |
Predicting lb(t+1) from lb(t) for 02930 - PP
Method |
Error on raw data |
Error on percentages |
linear regression |
37.6649 |
37.7794 |
kernel regression |
36.4024 |
38.8822 |
k nearest neighbors |
36.3552 |
38.0757 |
latest value |
43.9044 |
43.9044 |
mean value |
39.0530 |
39.0530 |
Predicting lb(t+1) from lb(t) for 02930 - RRC
Method |
Error on raw data |
Error on percentages |
linear regression |
36.4076 |
36.5440 |
kernel regression |
35.7675 |
38.1737 |
k nearest neighbors |
36.4065 |
38.1637 |
latest value |
44.3173 |
44.3173 |
mean value |
38.2857 |
38.2857 |
Predicting lt(t+1) from lt(t) for 02930 - PP&RRC
Method |
Error on raw data |
Error on percentages |
linear regression |
32.6557 |
32.6441 |
kernel regression |
33.0032 |
36.3991 |
k nearest neighbors |
33.9985 |
37.2002 |
latest value |
38.5323 |
38.5323 |
mean value |
36.9298 |
36.9298 |
Predicting lt(t+1) from lt(t) for 02930 - PP
Method |
Error on raw data |
Error on percentages |
linear regression |
33.1444 |
33.0677 |
kernel regression |
33.4922 |
36.1160 |
k nearest neighbors |
32.7904 |
35.5905 |
latest value |
40.4429 |
40.4429 |
mean value |
36.2968 |
36.2968 |
Predicting lt(t+1) from lt(t) for 02930 - RRC
Method |
Error on raw data |
Error on percentages |
linear regression |
34.1112 |
33.9552 |
kernel regression |
33.1998 |
35.5823 |
k nearest neighbors |
34.0388 |
36.9136 |
latest value |
41.8895 |
41.8895 |
mean value |
35.5599 |
35.5599 |
Predicting lb,lt(t+1) from lb,lt(t) for 02930 - PP&RRC
Method |
Error on raw data |
Error on percentages |
linear regression |
34.7935 |
34.8552 |
kernel regression |
34.5333 |
37.8808 |
k nearest neighbors |
34.6222 |
36.6398 |
latest value |
43.4562 |
43.4562 |
mean value |
38.7148 |
38.7148 |
Predicting lb,lt(t+1) from lb,lt(t) for 02930 - PP
Method |
Error on raw data |
Error on percentages |
linear regression |
37.4442 |
37.4967 |
kernel regression |
35.0515 |
37.8006 |
k nearest neighbors |
34.2027 |
36.0388 |
latest value |
42.6260 |
42.6260 |
mean value |
38.2030 |
38.2030 |
Predicting lb,lt(t+1) from lb,lt(t) for 02930 - RRC
Method |
Error on raw data |
Error on percentages |
linear regression |
36.9964 |
37.0235 |
kernel regression |
34.5741 |
37.0835 |
k nearest neighbors |
35.1504 |
37.2247 |
latest value |
43.3474 |
43.3474 |
mean value |
37.2884 |
37.2884 |