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## Accuracy of dimensionality reduction

In this section, we evaluate the accuracy of DR, DR-PI, and DR-CI. In all our experiments below, the error in an analysis (DR, DR-PI, or DR-CI) is defined as a relative difference against simulated value:

Simulation is kept running until the simulation error becomes less than 1% with probability 0.95 [85,168,193]. More precisely, our simulation keeps generating sample values,'' where the -th sample value,'' , is computed as a sample mean of the metric of interest in the -th run with a large number (say ten million; this number can be different for different parameter settings) of events, until one of the following two conditions are satisfied3.8: (i) and , where and are the sample mean and the sample variance of the sample values,'' respectively; (ii) and . Then, the sample mean of the sample values'' is output as the simulated value.

Unless otherwise stated, we approximate the busy period'' distribution by a two-phase PH distribution. In our parameter settings, two phases are sufficient to match the first three moments of the most of the busy periods. Even in a few cases where two phases are not sufficient, we are able to choose a two phase PH distribution whose first three moments are very close to those of the busy periods. Hence, using more phases to match the exact three moments does not appear to improve the accuracy appreciably.

We first evaluate the error in DR in predicting the mean delay in the preemptive priority queue. Here, delay of a job denotes the time the job spends waiting in the queue, i.e. delay does not include the service time. We choose to evaluate the error in mean delay rather than the error in mean response time (delay plus service time), since the error is larger in mean delay.

Figure 3.30: Accuracy of DR in the analysis of preemptive priority queues. (a) shows the error in the analysis of an M/M/2 with four priority classes as a function of load, , where the load of class is for each . (b) shows the error in the analysis of an M/PH/2 with two priority classes as a function of of the service demands of both high and low priority jobs, where the total load is fixed at and the load is balanced between the classes.
Error in DR

 High prio.: small ( )

 All same mean ()

 High prio.: large ()

 (a) M/M/2 with 4 priority classes
 (b) M/PH/2 with 2 priority classes

Figure 3.30 shows the error in DR in the analysis of the mean delay in the preemptive priority queue. Column (a) shows the error in the analysis of an M/M/2 queue with four priority classes, as a function of load, . (Class 1 is not shown in the figure for clarity, but the analysis of class 1 does not involve DR, and its error is comparable to the error in classes 2-4.) The load of each class is one-quarter of the total load, , i.e. each class has the same load. The service rate of class jobs is set for or 4. Namely, implies small high priority jobs, and implies large high priority jobs. The three rows in Figure 3.30 correspond to different values of . Column (b) shows the error in the analysis of an M/PH/2 queue with two priority classes. Here, we assess the effect of , the squared coefficient of variability of the job size distribution (both the high and low priority jobs), defined as the variance divided by the square of the mean. The load of each class is fixed at 0.3, and hence the total load is . We use a two phase Coxian PH distribution (see Section 2.2) as the job size distribution3.9, where the service rate of class jobs is set for or 4 as before.

Figure 3.30 shows that the error in DR is within 2% for all classes, for all 's, for all 's, and for all 's. On average, DR tends to underestimate the mean delay only by 0.2% of the simulation. Overall, the error in DR is quite small in predicting the first order metric (such as mean delay, mean response time, and mean queue length). We evaluate the error in DR when it is applied to other multiserver systems, and find that the error is within 3% in predicting the first order metric for a range of loads, job size distributions, and other parameters (see [67,68,70,151,152,155]).

Figure 3.31: Accuracy of DR, DR-PI, and DR-CI in predicting the first two moments of the queue length distributions, where and for each .
Error in DR, DR-PI, and DR-CI

 (a) First moment of queue length
 (b) Second moment of queue length

Next, we evaluate the accuracy of DR-PI and DR-CI as well as DR in predicting the first two moments of queue length distributions, through the analysis of SBCS-ID. We choose to evaluate the moments of queue length distributions, rather than delay or response time distributions, since the analysis of higher moments of delay and response time distributions are complicated, although possible as we show in Section 3.8. Throughout, we assume that class jobs arrive according to a Poisson process with rate , and their service demand has an exponential distribution with rate for .

Figure 3.31 shows the error in DR, DR-PI, and DR-CI in predicting the first two moments of queue length distributions. Here, we assume that the load made up of each class is fixed at 0.8 (i.e. ), and is chosen such that class 1 jobs are the shortest and class jobs are the longest, specifically . Column (a) shows the error in the first moment, and column (b) shows the error in the second moment. In the top row, the number of classes (and servers) is , and all of DR, DR-PI, and DR-CI are evaluated. In the middle row, the number of servers is , and here only DR-PI and DR-CI are evaluated, since evaluation via DR is computationally too expensive with (see Section 3.9.2). In the bottom row, the number of servers is , and here only DR-CI is evaluated3.10. The horizontal axis shows the server name,'' where server name denotes the -th server, and hence corresponds to the -th process. Note that the scale of the vertical axis is different between (a) and (b).

Figure 3.31 shows that the error in DR, DR-PI, and DR-CI is quite small in predicting the first moment, and it is always within 3%. The error in the second moment is slightly larger, but it is bounded by 6% for all of DR, DR-PI, and DR-CI. In both the first and second moments, the error does not appear to increase appreciably as the number of classes (processes) increases. Top two rows suggest that DR-PI tends to have only slightly larger error than DR, and DR-CI tends to have only slightly larger error than DR-PI. The small error in DR-PI and DR-CI suggests that the duration of the busy period of server affects the queue length of server primarily by the marginal distribution of the busy period duration, and the dependency in the sequence of busy period durations has a smaller effect.

Figure 3.32 shows how the system load affects the accuracy of RDR in predicting the first two moments of queue length distributions. Here, the error in DR, DR-PI, DR-CI is plotted at three different loads, , 0.8, or 0.9 for each . Throughout, is fixed at . The figure suggests that the error in DR, DR-PI, and DR-CI tends to become larger at higher load. Also, the error in DR-PI and DR-CI tends to become larger at a slightly faster rate (as the load increases) than the error in DR. For example, when for , the error in DR, DR-PI, DR-CI is within 1% (respectively, 2%) in predicting the first (respectively, second) moment of the queue length distribution. On the other hand, when for , the error in DR is within 3% (respectively, 5%) for the first (respectively, second) moment, while the error in RDR-PI and RDR-CI is within 4% (respectively, 7%) for the first (respectively, second) moment.

Figure 3.32: Accuracy of DR, DR-PI, and DR-CI at different loads, where .

 (a) Second moment of queue length
 (b) First moment of queue length
Figure 3.33: Accuracy of DR, DR-PI, and DR-CI at different job size configurations, where for each .
Effect of job sizes in error

 (a) First moment of queue length
 (b) Second moment of queue length

Figure 3.33 shows how the relative difference in the mean job size of each class affects the accuracy of DR, DR-PI, and DR-CI in predicting the first two moments of the queue length distribution. Here, the error in DR, DR-PI, DR-CI is plotted at four different job size configurations: , , , or . Throughout, is fixed for . Figure suggests that the error (in predicting both first and second moments) is greater when idle cycles of the server for longer jobs is stolen. We conjecture that this is primarily due to the fact that the busy period of server , which is the sojourn time in levels in the -th process, is relatively larger as compared to the service time and interarrival time at server if server is serving longer jobs, and hence the error in approximating/ignoring the distribution and dependency of the busy period has larger effect in predicting the queue length distribution at server . In general the error in DR, DR-PI, and DR-CI tends to be an increasing function of , when . Also, the error in DR-PI and DR-CI tends to become larger at a slightly faster rate (as increases) than the error in DR. For example, when , the error in DR, DR-PI, and DR-CI is negligible in both the first and second moments of the queue length distribution. On the other hand, when , the error in DR is within 3% (respectively, 7%) in predicting the first (respectively, second) moment, while the error in DR-PI and DR-CI is within 6% (respectively, 10%) in predicting the first (respectively, second) moment.

Finally, we study the effect of ignoring higher moments (specifically, the second and third moments) of the busy period distributions when they are approximated by PH distributions in DR, DR-PI, and DR-CI. Figure 3.34 shows the error in DR, DR-PI, and DR-CI when the busy period distributions are approximated by exponential distributions matching only the first moments. Other parameter settings are exactly the same as in Figure 3.31. Overall, ignoring the variability (and the third moment) of the busy periods can lead to as high an error as 10% in predicting the first moment of the queue length distribution and 20% in predicting the second moment.

Figure 3.34: Error in DR, DR-PI, and DR-CI when the busy period is approximated by an exponential distribution matching only the first moment.
Error in matching only one moment

 (a) First moment of queue length
 (b) Second moment of queue length

Next: Running time of dimensionality Up: Validation Previous: Validation   Contents
Takayuki Osogami 2005-07-19