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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Thursday, Jan 10, 2002 at 08:25AM EST    Commentary last updated: Thursday, Jan 10, 2002 at 09:12AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote     Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS  or Aquila    New! >> Printable PDF Trader Summary  (You must have Adobe Acrobat Reader  to open or print a PDF)   Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'      Today: Thursday, January 10, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 48 +2 ERCOT(SP) 71 +4 FRCC(SE) 70 NC MAAC(NE) 53 +1 MAIN(CTR) 44 +3 MAPP(HP) 38 +2 NPCC(NE) 43 NC SERC(SE) 64 +1 SPP(SP) 52 +5 WSCC(NW) 43 +2 WSCC(RK) 38 +5 WSCC(SW) 60 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 38 42 40 30 61 60 56 Max 44 45 48 43 38 66 66 60 Min 38 34 38 35 25 58 57 52 Range 6 11 10 8 13 8 9 8 StD-P 1.9 3.2 2.5 2.4 3.5 2.7 2.8 2.2 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:   It still appears we will lose the unseasonable warmth in the Plains this weekend, but the true arctic remains bottled. Models tone down any East Coast storm for the weekend and show signs of shifting a trough into the West.   A cold front will push through the Northern Plains ending the record warmth of recent days. But, I still do not see any brutal cold heading into the region in the short term(and longer) so numbers will continue on the warmer side of normal. This warm air continues to spread out to the East and slowly redeveloping to the South as well. Weak to moderate weather systems will traverse the Plains and East with light amounts of rain and snow, nothing significant here. A stronger system crashes into the Pacific NW this weekend only to fall apart into the Great Basin high that has been anchored ! the last couple of weeks. My five day numbers for temperatures remain above normal almost coast to coast though again the Plains will be cooler than recent days.    Tomorrow: Friday, January 11, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 41 +2 ERCOT(SP) 57 NC FRCC(SE) 73 NC MAAC(NE) 46 +3 MAIN(CTR) 39 +3 MAPP(HP) 38 +2 NPCC(NE) 40 +1 SERC(SE) 57 +2 SPP(SP) 50 +3 WSCC(NW) 43 +2 WSCC(RK) 41 +2 WSCC(SW) 61 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 37 39 40 42 33 59 54 57 Max 43 49 47 45 43 65 65 61 Min 33 33 35 39 24 55 46 52 Range 10 16 12 6 19 10 19 9 StD-P 2.7 4.4 3.0 1.6 4.5 2.7 4.0 2.8 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Saturday, January 12, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 38 +2 ERCOT(SP) 60 -2 FRCC(SE) 73 +5 MAAC(NE) 42 NC MAIN(CTR) 39 +5 MAPP(HP) 35 +3 NPCC(NE) 31 NC SERC(SE) 54 +4 SPP(SP) 53 +5 WSCC(NW) 43 NC WSCC(RK) 41 +2 WSCC(SW) 61 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 38 32 41 37 54 51 57 Max 38 45 42 44 43 61 59 61 Min 31 33 27 37 31 49 40 53 Range 7 12 15 7 12 12 19 8 StD-P 2.0 3.6 3.8 2.0 3.2 3.8 4.8 2.5 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 4: Sunday, January 13, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 39 +3 ERCOT(SP) 64 +1 FRCC(SE) 72 +6 MAAC(NE) 44 +3 MAIN(CTR) 36 NC MAPP(HP) 31 -2 NPCC(NE) 32 -1 SERC(SE) 55 +3 SPP(SP) 50 +2 WSCC(NW) 38 -2 WSCC(RK) 33 -2 WSCC(SW) 58 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 36 33 36 30 53 55 56 Max 37 43 36 43 43 58 60 61 Min 32 32 30 31 18 50 47 50 Range 5 11 6 12 25 8 13 11 StD-P 1.5 3.0 1.6 3.4 7.3 3.1 3.8 3.1 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 5: Monday, January 14, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 37 +1 ERCOT(SP) 61 -1 FRCC(SE) 73 +5 MAAC(NE) 40 NC MAIN(CTR) 34 -1 MAPP(HP) 28 -1 NPCC(NE) 30 -1 SERC(SE) 55 +3 SPP(SP) 45 -1 WSCC(NW) 40 +1 WSCC(RK) 30 -3 WSCC(SW) 58 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 31 33 36 27 55 52 54 Max 36 38 41 40 35 58 61 59 Min 32 25 27 31 17 52 41 50 Range 4 13 14 9 18 6 20 9 StD-P 1.1 3.2 4.5 2.0 6.0 1.7 5.6 2.5 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:  The NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks continue to indicate some cold air potential. I continue to disagree on the magnitude and southward extent. As I mentioned yesterday, they can verify correctly if you are one degree below normal as their forecast is a probability scheme. I can't totally rule out some arctic air in the normally frigid northern U.S. this time of year, but current patterns and charts convince me it would be extremely difficult to send this air very far South. The MRF and its ensembles remain in the camp of a trough East and ridge holding in the West. The European and Canadian models hint in the 6-10 day period of a pattern reversal with more of a trough in the West and ridge in the East. This ridge would not have near the amplitude of the one that produced the record warm November and December, but it would! effectively choke off any cold air East of the Mississippi. I think the European/Canadian combo has done a much better job than the MRF this year and may be a believable solution. The one change it does result in though is an opportunity to drive some cold air into the sparsely populated areas of the Interior NW and Rockies.      Day 6: Tuesday, January 15, 2002  Click Here  for Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information.  Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 37 -1 ERCOT(SP) 59 -6 FRCC(SE) 71 NC MAAC(NE) 44 +3 MAIN(CTR) 31 -2 MAPP(HP) 23 -2 NPCC(NE) 31 -1 SERC(SE) 54 -3 SPP(SP) 41 -6 WSCC(NW) 40 +1 WSCC(RK) 29 -3 WSCC(SW) 56 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 28 34 36 27 51 51 52 Max 32 34 37 40 37 57 57 57 Min 27 22 31 31 16 47 44 47 Range 5 12 6 9 21 10 13 10 StD-P 1.0 4.0 1.9 2.1 7.0 3.5 4.5 3.4 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Wednesday, January 16, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 34 -4 ERCOT(SP) 55 -8 FRCC(SE) 70 -2 MAAC(NE) 40 NC MAIN(CTR) 30 -3 MAPP(HP) 21 -6 NPCC(NE) 31 -1 SERC(SE) 52 -4 SPP(SP) 41 -5 WSCC(NW) 41 +1 WSCC(RK) 31 -2 WSCC(SW) 56 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 29 28 32 36 25 51 53 50 Max 37 33 35 41 32 57 64 57 Min 25 24 29 31 15 46 42 44 Range 12 9 6 10 17 11 22 13 StD-P 3.0 2.3 1.4 2.3 6.1 3.8 5.9 3.9 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 8: Thursday, January 17, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 25 -8 ERCOT(SP) 45 -6 FRCC(SE) 60 -8 MAAC(NE) 31 -10 MAIN(CTR) 22 -10 MAPP(HP) 23 -10 NPCC(NE) 30 -4 SERC(SE) 41 -13 SPP(SP) 37 NC WSCC(NW) 37 -1 WSCC(RK) 24 -2 WSCC(SW) 47 -3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 27 30 32 38 27 52 52 51 Max 33 33 38 42 35 61 63 56 Min 23 28 28 34 22 45 42 47 Range 10 5 10 8 13 16 21 9 StD-P 2.9 1.4 2.2 2.3 4.1 4.3 5.7 3.7 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Friday, January 18, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 29 -3 ERCOT(SP) 43 -14 FRCC(SE) 61 -5 MAAC(NE) 29 -3 MAIN(CTR) 31 -4 MAPP(HP) 34 -2 NPCC(NE) 26 -5 SERC(SE) 41 -4 SPP(SP) 40 -4 WSCC(NW) 39 +1 WSCC(RK) 26 -2 WSCC(SW) 51 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 29 32 31 39 28 51 50 52 Max 38 35 38 42 35 61 56 57 Min 24 28 26 35 23 45 42 49 Range 14 7 12 7 12 16 14 8 StD-P 2.9 2.0 3.3 1.7 4.0 4.4 4.5 2.4 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 10: Saturday, January 19, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 32 -4 ERCOT(SP) 50 -6 FRCC(SE) 62 -5 MAAC(NE) 35 -4 MAIN(CTR) 31 -5 MAPP(HP) 31 -1 NPCC(NE) 32 -1 SERC(SE) 44 -7 SPP(SP) 43 -5 WSCC(NW) 39 -1 WSCC(RK) 29 -4 WSCC(SW) 54 -3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 29 32 34 23 49 44 44 Max 32 35 45 39 28 57 50 54 Min 24 22 23 29 13 42 34 35 Range 8 13 22 10 15 15 16 19 StD-P 3.5 4.5 4.9 4.0 5.0 2.9 5.1 8.8 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]