Note:  The following CERA analysis speaks to the California/Western markets.  I am also attaching
a presentation I found from the Northwest Power Planning Council that has some insightful hydro
predictions. See both of the reports below.


Title: One Tight Winter Peak Remains 	

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WESTERN ENERGY--WINTER DEMAND PEAKS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PRICE SPIKES OR RELIABILITY PROBLEMS

Building natural gas and power supplies are providing a cushion for the western 
energy markets for this winter. Although seasonal gas and power demand spikes 
will again push prices higher, this winter will not look like the winter of 
2000/01. Unlike during the record high gas and power prices and blackouts last 
year winter, reduced demand, increased gas storage levels, and new gas and 
power supplies will significantly temper prices and significantly reduce the 
risk of supply disruptions. 

*  A supply build of 300 million cubic feet (MMcf) per day in the Rockies and 
900 MMcf in western Canada is meeting with declining demand in the West

*  Fourth quarter power demand is expected to be 13 percent below levels last 
year, while over 5,000 megawatts of new supply has been added this year

*  Only severe cold weather, prolonged drought, or a supply disruption could 
produce a reliability problem this winter

**end**