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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Tuesday, Jan 15, 2002 at 07:39AM EST    Commentary last updated: Tuesday, Jan 15, 2002 at 09:08AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote     Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS  or Aquila    New! >> Printable PDF Trader Summary  (You must have Adobe Acrobat Reader  to open or print a PDF)   Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'      Today: Tuesday, January 15, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 38 NC ERCOT(SP) 67 +1 FRCC(SE) 71 NC MAAC(NE) 49 NC MAIN(CTR) 35 +1 MAPP(HP) 24 +1 NPCC(NE) 38 NC SERC(SE) 57 NC SPP(SP) 52 +1 WSCC(NW) 36 +3 WSCC(RK) 29 NC WSCC(SW) 55 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 25 38 32 28 54 58 50 Max 34 28 41 37 32 61 66 56 Min 27 22 33 27 23 50 54 46 Range 7 6 8 10 9 11 12 10 StD-P 1.7 1.9 2.0 3.0 2.5 3.3 3.9 2.8 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:    The battle rages on between the Hudson Bay polar vortex and the Caribbean ridge. While widespread cold is still not likely, widespread storminess is.   I don't expect any large storms during the period, but a series of weak to moderate ones appear likely. With the jet stream in a zonal flow, it gets difficult to bring up much in the way of Gulf moisture. Therefore, precipitation production is more a function of the dynamics of the storm itself. Bottom line, nothing heavy for a while. This zonal flow is also keeping the polar and subtropical jet streams separate and distinct. There is plenty of cold air now on this side of the pole in Canada waiting for an excuse to come South. but, it runs into a wall in the Northern U.S. Any buckle of the jet stream looks to be confined to the Western U.S. over the next several ! days and probably longer. That trough in the West looks fairly weak so the temperature departures from normal are slight.     Tomorrow: Wednesday, January 16, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 36 +1 ERCOT(SP) 68 -1 FRCC(SE) 71 +2 MAAC(NE) 41 NC MAIN(CTR) 33 +4 MAPP(HP) 21 +2 NPCC(NE) 32 +1 SERC(SE) 56 +1 SPP(SP) 49 +3 WSCC(NW) 33 +1 WSCC(RK) 23 -2 WSCC(SW) 53 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 25 33 32 21 55 61 49 Max 32 27 40 35 32 60 67 54 Min 27 22 27 26 13 50 57 44 Range 5 5 13 9 19 10 10 10 StD-P 1.2 1.3 3.8 2.7 4.4 3.1 2.8 3.2 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Thursday, January 17, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 34 +1 ERCOT(SP) 62 -2 FRCC(SE) 76 +1 MAAC(NE) 45 +3 MAIN(CTR) 27 NC MAPP(HP) 19 NC NPCC(NE) 32 +3 SERC(SE) 57 +1 SPP(SP) 39 -1 WSCC(NW) 36 NC WSCC(RK) 23 -3 WSCC(SW) 53 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 26 22 35 32 21 57 56 49 Max 29 25 38 37 25 61 64 53 Min 23 17 32 28 15 54 52 45 Range 6 8 6 9 10 7 12 8 StD-P 1.9 2.8 1.3 2.2 3.5 2.0 2.5 2.8 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 4: Friday, January 18, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 31 -1 ERCOT(SP) 63 -1 FRCC(SE) 77 +2 MAAC(NE) 38 NC MAIN(CTR) 26 +1 MAPP(HP) 15 -1 NPCC(NE) 30 -1 SERC(SE) 54 -1 SPP(SP) 39 NC WSCC(NW) 35 -1 WSCC(RK) 23 -3 WSCC(SW) 52 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 23 22 29 32 20 56 56 48 Max 26 27 35 35 27 62 59 53 Min 18 17 24 26 11 51 53 43 Range 8 10 11 9 16 11 6 10 StD-P 2.3 3.2 3.4 3.2 5.7 3.3 1.4 3.0 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 5: Saturday, January 19, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 33 +2 ERCOT(SP) 58 NC FRCC(SE) 79 +2 MAAC(NE) 37 +2 MAIN(CTR) 30 +1 MAPP(HP) 25 NC NPCC(NE) 28 NC SERC(SE) 56 +2 SPP(SP) 42 NC WSCC(NW) 38 -3 WSCC(RK) 29 -3 WSCC(SW) 53 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 27 27 29 33 22 57 56 48 Max 34 32 33 38 29 62 63 53 Min 23 22 23 28 14 54 50 43 Range 11 10 10 10 15 8 13 10 StD-P 3.6 3.7 2.3 1.9 4.9 2.3 3.2 2.9 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:  The 6-10 day outlook in my view features more of the same. There is frustration in that Day 10 models continue to show the Southward progression of arctic cold, but without any real change in the upper level flow patterns. While I recognize cold air by weight can flow South on its own, it is tough to get very far South. The NWS 6-10 day outlook is warm virtually everywhere East of the Rockies. I am inclined to trim back the Northern part of that to allow for that slow South drift of arctic air. In addition this pattern may grow more favorable for Great Lakes enhanced snows. But, without a large surface High to press South out of the Yukon and with the Caribbean ridge still exerting an influence, I cannot see any large scale cold outbreaks developing.    Day 6: Sunday, January 20, 2002  Click Here  for Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information.  Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 37 +1 ERCOT(SP) 61 -1 FRCC(SE) 79 +2 MAAC(NE) 38 -1 MAIN(CTR) 35 +1 MAPP(HP) 30 +2 NPCC(NE) 32 NC SERC(SE) 56 +1 SPP(SP) 46 NC WSCC(NW) 41 +1 WSCC(RK) 32 NC WSCC(SW) 54 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 29 29 30 35 26 58 56 48 Max 33 33 38 41 33 62 62 54 Min 25 24 25 30 17 54 49 44 Range 8 9 13 11 16 8 13 10 StD-P 2.2 2.1 3.8 2.3 5.1 1.8 3.4 3.2 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Monday, January 21, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 41 +4 ERCOT(SP) 63 -1 FRCC(SE) 78 +2 MAAC(NE) 44 +3 MAIN(CTR) 36 +3 MAPP(HP) 31 +7 NPCC(NE) 36 +4 SERC(SE) 58 +2 SPP(SP) 50 +3 WSCC(NW) 40 -1 WSCC(RK) 36 +1 WSCC(SW) 57 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 32 31 35 30 59 57 49 Max 36 37 38 40 37 66 61 57 Min 28 30 24 32 24 55 52 45 Range 8 7 14 8 13 11 9 12 StD-P 2.3 1.8 3.6 2.6 3.8 2.8 3.1 3.5 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 8: Tuesday, January 22, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 40 +9 ERCOT(SP) 66 +5 FRCC(SE) 72 +3 MAAC(NE) 40 +9 MAIN(CTR) 38 NC MAPP(HP) 33 -6 NPCC(NE) 33 +4 SERC(SE) 62 +14 SPP(SP) 55 +2 WSCC(NW) 27 -3 WSCC(RK) 23 -6 WSCC(SW) 45 +2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 32 34 34 28 62 61 49 Max 38 35 40 40 36 65 64 56 Min 31 28 29 27 22 58 57 45 Range 7 7 11 13 14 7 7 11 StD-P 2.1 1.4 2.9 4.5 4.7 1.9 1.6 4.1 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Wednesday, January 23, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 47 +6 ERCOT(SP) 57 -9 FRCC(SE) 72 +1 MAAC(NE) 55 +19 MAIN(CTR) 39 -7 MAPP(HP) 21 -16 NPCC(NE) 41 +10 SERC(SE) 64 +6 SPP(SP) 43 -13 WSCC(NW) 30 +3 WSCC(RK) 13 -6 WSCC(SW) 43 +2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 30 39 34 25 62 57 49 Max 38 37 47 39 37 66 63 55 Min 29 23 34 29 12 58 52 43 Range 9 14 13 10 25 8 11 12 StD-P 2.2 3.9 4.7 3.6 8.1 2.2 3.3 4.4 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 10: Thursday, January 24, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 24 -25 ERCOT(SP) 41 -14 FRCC(SE) 70 -2 MAAC(NE) 51 -3 MAIN(CTR) 15 -26 MAPP(HP) 18 -10 NPCC(NE) 44 -2 SERC(SE) 50 -12 SPP(SP) 39 -4 WSCC(NW) 35 +3 WSCC(RK) 28 +10 WSCC(SW) 51 +6     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 23 29 39 33 21 52 42 42 Max 29 34 46 38 26 57 50 51 Min 16 23 32 29 15 47 38 34 Range 13 11 14 9 11 10 12 17 StD-P 4.4 4.2 5.7 3.1 3.4 2.9 3.3 6.7 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]