Assessing the post September 11 Landscape: CERA's New Global Energy
Initiative

The uncertainties created by the attack on September 11 and the global
response have created turmoil for near-term energy planning and
investment decision making. Circumstances demand rapid reassessments of
near-term risks and strategies. In response to client requests, CERA is
undertaking a comprehensive, new initiative to develop a framework for
understanding potential energy futures and their implications.  This
special multiclient project will include interactive analyses,
face-to-face workshops, and real-time updates. It will draw on CERA's
broad industry and regional expertise, offering participants both a
framework and a robust tool for evaluating strategies across all sectors
of the energy business and all geographies. The focus will be on
creating new and highly relevant insights into the energy future and the
political and economic context. It will highlight both key trends and
probable discontinuities -- and assess urgent issues in a setting that
will promote thoughtful and informed dialogue.

By emphasizing both virtual and in-person exchanges among participating
members and CERA experts, we will establish a three-year road map for
decision makers across the energy business, to complement CERA's
industry-specific and shorter-term analyses. In addition, the process
will offer a unique opportunity to interact with others across the
energy spectrum and to share ideas and experiences.

* Could the economic slowdown be prolonged and inflation be rekindled?
* What is the impact on energy demand -- does the fuel mix shift?
* How great are the risks for disruptions of supply? In which countries
and for which fuels?
* How would disruptions play out?  And how tumultuous will they be for
energy companies?
* How will energy policies change -- relative to energy security,
environmental trade-offs, and fuel strategies?
* Will the global coalition hold, or are we moving to a more divided and
more fractured world?
* How profound will be the changes for the energy business?

This timely series provides a three-year horizon that draws on the
framework established in CERA's longer-term scenarios. It uses the clash
between the "Fragmentation" and "Globality" scenarios as the starting
point for assessing the new world in which energy-decision makers will
operate and the critical choices they will face.

The first workshop will be held in Houston on November 15, in
conjunction with CERA's Fall Roundtable series.  Additional workshops,
both in Houston and other cities and via online technologies, will
follow. We will announce the entire schedule, with events and
deliverables, soon. The process will deliver a clear framework for
anticipating the future, and conclusions for energy strategy. 

For more information, please contact Steve Haggett at shaggett@cera.com,
or +617 441 2646.