Yesterday's run up doesn't, at least at first glance, resemble a major bottom.
Yes, we did make a new low and settle higher, setting the stage for a possible
reversal. To confirm, we need to see a settle above the $19.40 high from
Tuesday. The reason it didn't resemble a major bottom was the lack of solid
spread action. Crude spreads barely budged, even at the highs. If people were
really seeing yesterday as a potential bottom, it should have been reflected in
more nervousness in short crude spreads. The only market that did react
spread-wise was heating oil. Turnarounds and a mildly improving overseas market
have had some effect. Mar/Apr, in particular, has moved in from -50 to flat.
Replacing barrels during turnaround at close to carry makes sense, anything in
premium only makes sense if a squeeze opportunity arises. Given the huge stock
overhang in PADD One and lack of extended cold weather, I don't see this as
viable. Paper players are clearly very short, however, and that has some
bearing. Back on the short spread angle, you could make the case for a lack of
covering until a strong settle was seen. If the majority sees yesterday's settle
as important, we should see a definite crude spread reaction today. A decent
number of out of the money $19 calls were exercised last night, we haven't seen
that play in some time.  Gas demand fell of the table and gas/heat continues to
look soft.






_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Ce message et toutes les pieces jointes (ci-apres le "message") sont etablis a l'intention exclusive de ses destinataires et sont confidentiels. Si vous recevez ce message par erreur, merci de le detruire et d'en avertir immediatement l'expediteur.

Toute utilisation de ce message non conforme a sa destination, toute diffusion ou toute publication, totale ou partielle, est interdite, sauf autorisation expresse.

L'internet ne permettant pas d'assurer l'integrite de ce message, BNP PARIBAS (et ses filiales) decline(nt) toute responsabilite au titre de ce message, dans l'hypothese ou il aurait ete modifie.
	----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This message and any attachments (the "message") are intended solely for the addressees and are confidential. If you receive this message in error, please delete it and immediately notify the sender.

Any use not in accord with its purpose, any dissemination or disclosure, either whole or partial, is prohibited except formal approval.

The internet can not guarantee the integrity of this message. BNP PARIBAS (and its subsidiaries) shall (will) not therefore be liable for the message if modified.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________