Enron's Bonds Tell the Tale: Stay Away
By Herb Greenberg <mailto:hgreenberg@thestreet.com>
Senior Columnist

RealMoney.com
10/24/2001 02:47 PM EDT
URL: <http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/herbonthestreet-rm/10002953.html>

If you ever have questions about whether a battered stock is cheap, check out its bonds. Bond analysts almost always know best because they're looking at the guts of a company -- the ability of a company to service its debt. If it can't service the debt, stockholders are at a greater risk of getting pummeled because debtholders always come before stockholders when it comes to getting paid. 
Which brings us to Enron (ENE:NYSE - news - commentary) . The only reason to mention it is that some analysts are really reiterating buys based on its low multiple. (Low, fellas, is relative to reality!) Cramer today talks about his hunch that the stock is vulnerable because, as he says, "accounting irregularities = sell." 
Good point. Now let's back that up with the bond market's view, which can be seen in the so-called "swap spread," which is bond-traderspeak for the spread between the LIBOR interest rate and the interest rate for comparable paper, or swaps. It's a benchmark bond traders use to determine risk. Tuesday, that spread on Enron's five-year notes was 650 basis points, or about 6.5 percentage points. Today, it's 1,000 points, or 10 percentage points. As one bond trader told me today, anybody would be crazy to pay that much. Another bond trader told another friend the same thing. 
Why? As of June 30, Enron had cash of just $847 million and debt of nearly $13 billion. 
And this observation: Those five-year notes currently yield about 13%. That's a junk-bond yield for what is still rated as an investment-grade debt; anything more than 9% is considered ultra-high risk. So while you can make 13%, that's still not enough "where the accounting is questionable," one bond trader says. "You're not being adequately compensated for the fact that the company could default. You have to worry about your recovery value." 
Not the kind of risk/reward an investor wants to see when the company in question still has a market cap of about $12.5 billion with a capital B. 
Speaking of bonds and stocks: Even with its stock at about $1.16, Global Crossing (GX:NYSE - news - commentary) still has a market cap that exceeds $1 billion. But while its stock has rallied, its bank debt has stayed relatively flat at around 50 cents to 53 cents on the dollar. Similar stories can be told for XO Communications (XOXO:Nasdaq - news - commentary) , with a market cap of about $473 million and bank debt trading at around 52 cents on the dollar; Level 3 Communications (LVLT:Nasdaq - news - commentary) , with a market cap of $1.2 billion and bank debt trading at 66 cents; and McLeodUSA (MCLD:Nasdaq - news - commentary) , with a market cap of $462 million and debt that trades at 53 cents. 
Where are opportunistic bond investors, who should be hopping on such cheap debt -- especially bank debt, which is at the top of the getting-paid-back food chain? They're nowhere to be seen, for the same reasons they're not jumping to buy Enron's bonds: Too much risk, because when companies like those go bad, their assets trade for less than the bonds are currently trading. (Try telling that to "hope-springs-eternal" stock investors!) 
Providian pratfalls: Turns out an item here back in May was more fortuitous than it appeared. The item noted how institutional bond investors, who often pony up a slight premium to LIBOR to buy so-called credit default-protection insurance, couldn't find any at any price for Providian (PVN:NYSE - news - commentary) . The insurance is sold by investment banks such as J.P. Morgan Chase and typically involves a complex hedge of stocks and options that requires an investor to take the other side of the trade. If nobody'll take the other side of the trade -- or will charge a ridiculously high price to do so -- investors should beware. Which brings us back to Enron: It is possible to buy credit insurance, but at more than a whopping 1,000 basis points over LIBOR. Hardly a vote of confidence.