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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Wednesday, Jan 09, 2002 at 07:42AM EST    Commentary last updated: Wednesday, Jan 09, 2002 at 09:34AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote     Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS  or Aquila    New! >> Printable PDF Trader Summary  (You must have Adobe Acrobat Reader  to open or print a PDF)   Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'      Today: Wednesday, January  9, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 48 +2 ERCOT(SP) 74 +1 FRCC(SE) 62 NC MAAC(NE) 43 +1 MAIN(CTR) 52 +2 MAPP(HP) 47 +2 NPCC(NE) 37 +1 SERC(SE) 59 +1 SPP(SP) 67 +4 WSCC(NW) 45 +1 WSCC(RK) 44 +2 WSCC(SW) 61 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 44 44 37 41 37 56 66 57 Max 50 51 40 45 45 62 74 62 Min 40 40 33 37 33 53 60 53 Range 10 11 7 8 12 9 14 9 StD-P 3.1 3.5 1.7 2.8 3.6 2.9 4.2 2.7 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:   Bismarck, North Dakota was warmer yesterday than Miami, Florida! Overall weather pattern still finds bitter cold arctic air lurking... in the NW territories.  Bismarck was 38 degrees above normal yesterday at 63 while Miami was about 12 degrees below normal at 61. Its all a product of the jet stream pattern which has taken modified Canadian air deep into the South while allowing a downslope wind off the Rockies to really warm up the Plains. This warm air is heading East and will attack the Ohio Valley and East Coast snow cover with a vengeance the next couple of days. I do see a reversal of temperatures gradually occurring in the South the rest of the week as the deep trough weakens. The current quiet pattern will become a little more active in the storm department later in the week. There is a benign loo! king system on the West Coast today which may redevelop over the Lower Mississippi Valley this weekend. While I would not give this a "major storm" designation, it could provide the East some snow late in the period. In addition, another moderate cold front in the Northern branch will end the unseasonable warmth in the Plains this weekend, but I would hardly call it cold. The five day numbers will still grade out well above normal. The stagnant pattern in the West looks to continue as high pressure remains anchored over the Great Basin. Storms coming in off the Pacific have a small punch as they hit the coast, but rapidly weaken once inland. Overall, temperatures there look to remain a bit above normal.    Tomorrow: Thursday, January 10, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 47 +2 ERCOT(SP) 67 +2 FRCC(SE) 70 +1 MAAC(NE) 53 +4 MAIN(CTR) 40 +1 MAPP(HP) 36 +1 NPCC(NE) 43 +1 SERC(SE) 63 +3 SPP(SP) 46 -1 WSCC(NW) 40 -2 WSCC(RK) 33 -3 WSCC(SW) 59 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 38 41 40 30 60 61 56 Max 50 51 47 45 45 66 72 61 Min 37 33 37 35 19 57 55 51 Range 13 18 10 10 26 9 17 10 StD-P 2.9 4.5 2.0 2.5 6.1 2.4 4.0 3.4 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Friday, January 11, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 39 +1 ERCOT(SP) 57 -3 FRCC(SE) 73 +3 MAAC(NE) 43 +1 MAIN(CTR) 37 +2 MAPP(HP) 35 +3 NPCC(NE) 39 +3 SERC(SE) 54 +3 SPP(SP) 47 -1 WSCC(NW) 42 -3 WSCC(RK) 38 -3 WSCC(SW) 60 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 37 38 41 32 57 51 57 Max 41 41 46 44 38 64 63 60 Min 32 32 33 38 24 51 42 51 Range 9 9 13 6 14 13 21 9 StD-P 2.5 2.8 3.0 1.7 4.2 3.2 4.9 3.3 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 4: Saturday, January 12, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 37 +1 ERCOT(SP) 62 +1 FRCC(SE) 68 +7 MAAC(NE) 42 +2 MAIN(CTR) 34 -2 MAPP(HP) 33 -5 NPCC(NE) 31 -1 SERC(SE) 51 +2 SPP(SP) 48 -3 WSCC(NW) 43 +1 WSCC(RK) 39 -4 WSCC(SW) 60 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 36 31 41 35 50 51 57 Max 36 41 40 44 40 60 58 61 Min 31 31 26 37 30 45 41 52 Range 5 10 14 7 10 15 17 9 StD-P 1.1 2.7 3.9 2.4 3.2 4.2 5.0 2.6 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 5: Sunday, January 13, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 36 -4 ERCOT(SP) 62 -2 FRCC(SE) 65 +3 MAAC(NE) 41 -1 MAIN(CTR) 36 -3 MAPP(HP) 33 -2 NPCC(NE) 34 NC SERC(SE) 52 NC SPP(SP) 48 -5 WSCC(NW) 39 +2 WSCC(RK) 35 -1 WSCC(SW) 58 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 37 33 37 32 49 54 55 Max 37 41 36 43 41 55 59 60 Min 30 32 29 31 21 44 48 50 Range 7 9 7 12 20 11 11 10 StD-P 1.5 2.8 1.8 3.2 7.3 3.4 3.2 2.8 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:  My mid range forecast continues to disagree with many who are calling for much colder air to invade the Northern U.S. The NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day products seem to be leading this charge with strong probabilities of below normal temperatures over much of the country especially in the 8-14 day time frame. I think a mistake is being made in equating a large area of below normal probabilities with very cold air. Keep in mind that in a probability forecast one degree below normal grades out the same as 30 degrees below normal. There are two distinct branches of the jet stream right now, but clearly the Pacific branch is more dominant in the U.S. than the arctic branch. Repeated efforts at reversing that have not yet materialized and I won't forecast that occurrence without more evidence. I am not arguing against cooler tha! n current weather or even the return to below normal temperatures in the North next week. I just don't see the whole motherlode of arctic air coming down. This outlook will bust big time if I am wrong though if one looks at the extreme cold being predicted on the end panels (days 14-16) of the MRF in NW Canada. Those readings are as cold as anything I have ever seen. But, they are at the end of the long range and in NW Canada. I think it has been proven several times already this winter it is very premature to bring that air down though if you hammer at it often enough it may eventually happen.     Day 6: Monday, January 14, 2002  Click Here  for Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information.  Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 36 -3 ERCOT(SP) 62 -2 FRCC(SE) 68 -2 MAAC(NE) 40 -5 MAIN(CTR) 35 -1 MAPP(HP) 29 +2 NPCC(NE) 31 -5 SERC(SE) 52 -5 SPP(SP) 47 -3 WSCC(NW) 38 +2 WSCC(RK) 33 +1 WSCC(SW) 57 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 31 32 35 30 52 55 53 Max 38 36 38 40 36 55 60 58 Min 32 26 25 30 18 47 47 47 Range 6 10 13 10 18 8 13 11 StD-P 1.4 3.7 3.3 3.1 6.3 2.3 4.9 3.5 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Tuesday, January 15, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 38 NC ERCOT(SP) 65 +1 FRCC(SE) 71 NC MAAC(NE) 41 -2 MAIN(CTR) 33 NC MAPP(HP) 25 +4 NPCC(NE) 32 -1 SERC(SE) 56 -1 SPP(SP) 47 -3 WSCC(NW) 39 +3 WSCC(RK) 32 +1 WSCC(SW) 56 +3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 28 34 34 29 54 58 51 Max 37 31 38 39 35 59 63 56 Min 27 22 31 26 19 50 51 46 Range 10 9 7 13 16 9 12 10 StD-P 1.6 2.6 1.9 3.2 6.4 2.4 2.5 3.3 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 8: Wednesday, January 16, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 36 -7 ERCOT(SP) 65 -3 FRCC(SE) 64 NC MAAC(NE) 37 -2 MAIN(CTR) 31 -9 MAPP(HP) 27 +5 NPCC(NE) 34 +5 SERC(SE) 53 -1 SPP(SP) 42 -14 WSCC(NW) 34 +13 WSCC(RK) 20 +8 WSCC(SW) 46 +6     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 30 34 34 28 55 60 50 Max 34 34 39 40 34 58 66 56 Min 25 22 29 28 17 49 54 45 Range 9 12 10 12 17 9 12 11 StD-P 1.8 2.5 2.0 2.5 6.5 2.1 2.4 3.9 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Thursday, January 17, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 33 -6 ERCOT(SP) 50 -13 FRCC(SE) 68 +2 MAAC(NE) 41 -6 MAIN(CTR) 32 +8 MAPP(HP) 33 +19 NPCC(NE) 34 -7 SERC(SE) 54 -6 SPP(SP) 36 +1 WSCC(NW) 38 +13 WSCC(RK) 26 +13 WSCC(SW) 50 +11     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 30 33 34 27 57 57 50 Max 42 33 36 38 32 60 67 55 Min 26 25 26 30 18 52 47 45 Range 16 8 10 8 14 8 20 10 StD-P 4.1 2.2 2.4 3.2 3.7 2.0 6.0 3.0 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 10: Friday, January 18, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 32 +8 ERCOT(SP) 57 +10 FRCC(SE) 66 NC MAAC(NE) 32 NC MAIN(CTR) 35 +12 MAPP(HP) 35 +18 NPCC(NE) 31 +5 SERC(SE) 44 -3 SPP(SP) 44 +7 WSCC(NW) 38 +11 WSCC(RK) 29 +11 WSCC(SW) 54 +9     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 26 34 31 22 52 54 43 Max 34 36 43 38 28 56 58 54 Min 25 15 27 22 15 48 48 32 Range 9 21 16 16 13 8 10 22 StD-P 3.3 6.7 5.6 5.2 4.4 2.8 3.0 8.3 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]