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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Wednesday, Feb 06, 2002 at 07:06AM EST    Commentary last updated: Wednesday, Feb 06, 2002 at 09:14AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy /True Quote     Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS  or Aquila    New! >> Printable PDF Trader Summary  (You must have Adobe Acrobat Reader  to open or print a PDF)   Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'      Today: Wednesday, February  6, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 38 -1 ERCOT(SP) 49 NC FRCC(SE) 75 +3 MAAC(NE) 41 -1 MAIN(CTR) 36 -1 MAPP(HP) 38 +1 NPCC(NE) 30 -1 SERC(SE) 44 -1 SPP(SP) 37 -1 WSCC(NW) 41 -2 WSCC(RK) 39 +1 WSCC(SW) 59 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 36 29 39 32 51 45 54 Max 40 43 35 41 39 54 48 58 Min 31 30 23 36 23 50 43 51 Range 9 13 12 5 16 4 5 7 StD-P 2.2 3.3 2.7 2.0 4.7 1.2 1.4 2.1 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:  More troughing in the East and ridging in the West. Pattern developing as advertised, but will the cold air materialize?  The Southern stream storm track is alive and well and should continue to be so for the next couple of weeks. All of the models point to the potential of healthy winter storms in the midst of a warmer than normal temperature pattern. The lack of realized cold continues to frustrate me as once again the air simply is not that frigid. We are still below normal relative to normal over much of the South and West. In the West, it is due to high pressure trapped in the Intermountain region while in the South it is in response to inclement weather along the storm track. The North and East are back into a warming mode in spite of the fact that a trough will reform in the East. Upstream over the Western h! alf of Canada, it is just not that cold anymore. The MRF is up to its old tricks of a sharp cooling "just past this period" and the Canadian still insists on a moderate intensity high coming down this weekend. It may well turn cooler, but certainly not in an excessive way. The five day numbers will be warming, not cooling.     Tomorrow: Thursday, February  7, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 41 -1 ERCOT(SP) 58 NC FRCC(SE) 73 NC MAAC(NE) 42 -3 MAIN(CTR) 42 +2 MAPP(HP) 40 +3 NPCC(NE) 38 +4 SERC(SE) 49 NC SPP(SP) 49 +2 WSCC(NW) 43 -1 WSCC(RK) 43 +2 WSCC(SW) 59 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 39 36 39 37 52 51 55 Max 42 47 42 43 44 55 57 59 Min 32 34 33 36 28 50 45 52 Range 10 13 9 7 16 5 12 7 StD-P 3.1 4.0 2.4 2.2 4.2 1.2 3.5 2.4 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Friday, February  8, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 48 +5 ERCOT(SP) 64 NC FRCC(SE) 69 +1 MAAC(NE) 49 +2 MAIN(CTR) 46 +4 MAPP(HP) 39 NC NPCC(NE) 39 +4 SERC(SE) 58 NC SPP(SP) 56 +1 WSCC(NW) 44 -1 WSCC(RK) 39 -4 WSCC(SW) 60 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 38 38 36 40 35 53 57 56 Max 44 46 43 44 44 61 62 60 Min 34 34 29 36 26 48 53 51 Range 10 12 14 8 18 13 9 9 StD-P 2.8 3.5 3.3 2.9 5.4 3.2 2.2 2.8 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 4: Saturday, February  9, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 48 +3 ERCOT(SP) 61 -4 FRCC(SE) 73 +3 MAAC(NE) 52 +4 MAIN(CTR) 39 +1 MAPP(HP) 32 -1 NPCC(NE) 38 NC SERC(SE) 60 -1 SPP(SP) 48 -3 WSCC(NW) 46 +1 WSCC(RK) 37 -1 WSCC(SW) 63 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 37 36 37 42 31 57 56 58 Max 42 43 43 47 40 62 63 63 Min 34 31 30 36 23 53 49 54 Range 8 12 13 11 17 9 14 9 StD-P 2.1 3.2 2.7 2.7 5.8 2.4 4.0 2.7 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 5: Sunday, February 10, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 43 +4 ERCOT(SP) 61 -2 FRCC(SE) 70 NC MAAC(NE) 49 +3 MAIN(CTR) 38 +1 MAPP(HP) 36 +3 NPCC(NE) 40 NC SERC(SE) 56 NC SPP(SP) 53 -1 WSCC(NW) 45 +1 WSCC(RK) 45 +1 WSCC(SW) 66 +3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 36 39 41 41 38 56 52 61 Max 39 45 46 45 46 62 59 66 Min 31 36 37 37 33 50 45 55 Range 8 9 9 8 13 12 14 11 StD-P 2.1 2.5 2.3 2.8 3.4 2.9 4.4 1.9 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:  The 6-10 day period appears to be much more favorable for talk of storms rather than any excessive cold. We are rapidly running out of time for that as normal temperatures are now on their way up. We may not see anything extreme, but I still see some potential for the East being slightly below normal for the period if the Canadian is on the right track. The models do seem to show ridging to continue out West. It has been a very slow process, but moderation should continue.   Day 6: Monday, February 11, 2002  Click Here  for Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information.  Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 42 NC ERCOT(SP) 66 NC FRCC(SE) 69 -1 MAAC(NE) 46 +1 MAIN(CTR) 41 +2 MAPP(HP) 37 +7 NPCC(NE) 38 +1 SERC(SE) 59 +1 SPP(SP) 58 +4 WSCC(NW) 42 +1 WSCC(RK) 44 +6 WSCC(SW) 62 +3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 37 41 37 38 38 54 56 59 Max 40 45 42 46 47 61 64 65 Min 34 36 31 33 31 47 53 52 Range 6 9 11 13 16 14 11 13 StD-P 1.8 2.2 2.6 4.2 4.4 4.1 2.6 3.5 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Tuesday, February 12, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 44 +3 ERCOT(SP) 68 +2 FRCC(SE) 73 NC MAAC(NE) 49 +2 MAIN(CTR) 37 +4 MAPP(HP) 27 +1 NPCC(NE) 37 +2 SERC(SE) 61 +2 SPP(SP) 52 +4 WSCC(NW) 40 -1 WSCC(RK) 35 +1 WSCC(SW) 61 +4     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 36 33 38 37 33 56 59 57 Max 40 46 41 45 47 63 65 63 Min 31 26 29 27 24 52 54 51 Range 9 20 12 18 23 11 11 12 StD-P 2.9 5.0 2.5 5.6 6.6 2.6 3.2 3.8 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 8: Wednesday, February 13, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 39 -2 ERCOT(SP) 53 +6 FRCC(SE) 67 -3 MAAC(NE) 48 -3 MAIN(CTR) 23 NC MAPP(HP) 11 -10 NPCC(NE) 43 +1 SERC(SE) 57 -1 SPP(SP) 26 -7 WSCC(NW) 30 -2 WSCC(RK) 14 -9 WSCC(SW) 48 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 31 38 38 30 57 53 55 Max 40 42 45 43 45 61 65 63 Min 24 18 30 30 12 50 46 47 Range 16 24 15 13 33 11 19 16 StD-P 4.2 7.0 4.0 4.6 9.4 3.6 5.1 4.8 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Thursday, February 14, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 21 -4 ERCOT(SP) 38 -13 FRCC(SE) 67 +1 MAAC(NE) 40 -8 MAIN(CTR) 20 -7 MAPP(HP) 23 -6 NPCC(NE) 32 -11 SERC(SE) 48 +2 SPP(SP) 31 -10 WSCC(NW) 36 +3 WSCC(RK) 23 -4 WSCC(SW) 52 +3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 35 33 39 33 54 51 55 Max 38 40 38 44 41 61 62 61 Min 20 28 28 35 23 47 36 51 Range 18 12 10 9 18 14 26 10 StD-P 5.0 3.8 2.2 3.3 7.1 3.8 8.5 3.0 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 10: Friday, February 15, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 22 -8 ERCOT(SP) 45 -9 FRCC(SE) 52 -10 MAAC(NE) 16 -13 MAIN(CTR) 31 -3 MAPP(HP) 34 -2 NPCC(NE) 15 -4 SERC(SE) 34 -11 SPP(SP) 43 -6 WSCC(NW) 37 +6 WSCC(RK) 31 -1 WSCC(SW) 55 +11     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 32 22 35 26 42 46 48 Max 35 37 28 39 32 49 52 56 Min 26 27 14 30 11 37 40 36 Range 9 10 14 9 21 12 12 20 StD-P 2.0 4.5 5.0 3.0 6.1 4.8 3.3 7.5 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]