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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Monday, Oct 29, 2001 at 11:47AM EST    Commentary last updated: Monday, Oct 29, 2001 at 09:58AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy /  True Quote     Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS  or Aquila    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'     Today: Monday, October 29, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 56 +1 ERCOT(SP) 75 -1 FRCC(SE) 74 -1 MAAC(NE) 56 -1 MAIN(CTR) 56 +1 MAPP(HP) 50 NC NPCC(NE) 51 -1 SERC(SE) 65 -1 SPP(SP) 71 NC WSCC(NW) 56 +1 WSCC(RK) 63 NC WSCC(SW) 71 +3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 51 52 50 52 60 62 70 67 Max 59 58 55 56 67 67 76 72 Min 44 47 45 48 52 54 62 63 Range 15 11 10 8 15 13 14 9 StD-P 3.7 2.7 2.6 2.4 4.1 4.0 4.4 3.0 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10    Day 1-5 Discussion:   Pacific air to overwhelm most of the country this week with a lack of significant storminess. There may however be some late season percolation in the tropics.  For the third time this month, we set a handful of record lows in the SE U.S. this weekend. The Canadian high is moving toward the coast though and we should soon initiate a broad (though light) SW flow of air that will warm the East back to above normal levels. This is already well under way in the Plains where 70's were common this weekend. This pattern shuts off the Gulf of Mexico and allows for mainly dry frontal passages. One such front in the Plains will shift to the NE through Wednesday. Since we have a zonal flow developing in the upper levels, this front does little more than slow down the warm up as opposed to stopping it all together. ! Storms are a little more robust in the Pacific NW as a deep trough in the Gulf of Alaska continues to send impulses of energy your way. Some precip should get as far South as Northern California. With no additional arctic air in sight this week, most five day averages return to above seasonal norms.  The most excitement for weather fanatics this week may be late season development in the tropics. We have a tropical depression in the Central Atlantic now and satellite pictures suggest another one may be developing over the next 24 hours in the Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. My initial thought was its a little too far South and too close to land to really have an impact in the Gulf and SE. However, there is considerable forecast scatter among the models. It runs anywhere from nothing at all to development in the Gulf of Mexico. So, I wont rule it out yet, but since it would be days away and not even developed yet, I'll wait a couple of days before issuing a p! rediction. Tomorrow: Tuesday, October 30, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 54 -3 ERCOT(SP) 76 -1 FRCC(SE) 78 NC MAAC(NE) 57 -1 MAIN(CTR) 56 -3 MAPP(HP) 52 -3 NPCC(NE) 50 NC SERC(SE) 69 NC SPP(SP) 72 -1 WSCC(NW) 56 +1 WSCC(RK) 64 +6 WSCC(SW) 67 +2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 51 59 48 51 59 65 70 63 Max 57 63 52 56 66 72 77 70 Min 46 54 43 48 53 58 60 59 Range 11 9 9 8 13 14 17 11 StD-P 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.6 3.7 4.4 4.6 3.2 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10   Day 3: Wednesday, October 31, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 62 -1 ERCOT(SP) 79 NC FRCC(SE) 81 NC MAAC(NE) 54 -5 MAIN(CTR) 64 +2 MAPP(HP) 62 +2 NPCC(NE) 47 -2 SERC(SE) 70 -1 SPP(SP) 73 +2 WSCC(NW) 53 NC WSCC(RK) 58 +2 WSCC(SW) 67 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 57 61 46 47 50 67 73 62 Max 63 67 50 54 59 73 78 67 Min 53 56 42 43 45 63 66 59 Range 10 11 8 11 14 10 12 8 StD-P 2.9 3.1 2.2 3.1 4.3 3.6 3.5 2.5 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8   Day 4: Thursday, November  1, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 67 +3 ERCOT(SP) 81 NC FRCC(SE) 82 NC MAAC(NE) 66 NC MAIN(CTR) 64 +1 MAPP(HP) 61 +4 NPCC(NE) 56 -4 SERC(SE) 75 -1 SPP(SP) 73 +1 WSCC(NW) 52 NC WSCC(RK) 53 NC WSCC(SW) 67 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 59 53 57 47 44 71 74 63 Max 64 61 60 52 55 76 79 68 Min 55 48 54 43 37 68 68 59 Range 9 13 6 9 18 8 11 9 StD-P 2.6 3.6 1.8 2.8 5.0 2.6 4.0 2.8 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6   Day 5: Friday, November  2, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 64 +2 ERCOT(SP) 81 +1 FRCC(SE) 82 NC MAAC(NE) 67 NC MAIN(CTR) 61 +4 MAPP(HP) 56 +4 NPCC(NE) 62 +2 SERC(SE) 75 NC SPP(SP) 71 NC WSCC(NW) 54 NC WSCC(RK) 53 NC WSCC(SW) 68 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 56 50 62 48 45 72 73 65 Max 60 58 64 54 54 76 79 69 Min 51 41 59 45 37 69 67 61 Range 9 17 5 9 17 7 12 8 StD-P 3.1 5.4 1.6 2.5 6.2 2.2 4.2 2.6 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6    Day 6-10 Discussion:  Last week 6-10 day forecasts from the models were largely in agreement and so far have been mostly on the money. Given the pattern though, I would have expected this to be the case. The next change in weather will likely not be so agreed upon and there is already some scatter in the models. My early expectations are for another buckle to take place in the jet stream over the Eastern U.S. early in this period. Some keep things zonal, but you certainly can't argue the trend so far this fall is for this to occur about every seven days. But, there is reason to think the Eastern trough will not be as robust as the last several. In other words, it won't be as cold or spread as far South or West. If it goes this way, we would turn slightly below normal East, a little above in the West and a little of both(or normal) in the P! lains. Day 6: Saturday, November  3, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 60 +4 ERCOT(SP) 79 +2 FRCC(SE) 83 +1 MAAC(NE) 64 +3 MAIN(CTR) 59 +5 MAPP(HP) 53 +2 NPCC(NE) 56 +1 SERC(SE) 74 +2 SPP(SP) 69 +3 WSCC(NW) 54 NC WSCC(RK) 54 -1 WSCC(SW) 70 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 50 51 58 52 47 71 70 67 Max 57 57 61 56 55 76 76 72 Min 45 45 56 48 40 69 67 63 Range 12 12 5 8 15 7 9 9 StD-P 3.9 4.7 1.5 3.3 5.6 2.2 2.9 3.2 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 7: Sunday, November  4, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 52 -2 ERCOT(SP) 74 -2 FRCC(SE) 81 -1 MAAC(NE) 56 -3 MAIN(CTR) 51 -3 MAPP(HP) 50 -2 NPCC(NE) 52 NC SERC(SE) 70 -1 SPP(SP) 64 -2 WSCC(NW) 54 -2 WSCC(RK) 54 -1 WSCC(SW) 70 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 48 52 48 51 47 67 66 67 Max 54 60 53 54 56 71 71 71 Min 41 44 43 49 38 64 63 63 Range 13 16 10 5 18 7 8 8 StD-P 5.6 6.2 4.0 1.7 7.4 2.6 2.9 3.0 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 8: Monday, November  5, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 36 -7 ERCOT(SP) 62 -1 FRCC(SE) 67 -3 MAAC(NE) 46 +2 MAIN(CTR) 39 -5 MAPP(HP) 45 -7 NPCC(NE) 42 +3 SERC(SE) 53 -5 SPP(SP) 56 +2 WSCC(NW) 44 -4 WSCC(RK) 47 -5 WSCC(SW) 63 -3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 48 52 48 47 51 63 66 67 Max 57 57 53 53 56 69 72 71 Min 40 48 43 44 49 56 61 63 Range 17 9 10 9 7 13 11 8 StD-P 6.8 3.1 4.5 2.4 2.5 6.1 4.4 2.7 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 9: Tuesday, November  6, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 45 -2 ERCOT(SP) 68 +2 FRCC(SE) 63 -3 MAAC(NE) 44 -1 MAIN(CTR) 50 -4 MAPP(HP) 45 -7 NPCC(NE) 40 NC SERC(SE) 54 +1 SPP(SP) 60 -3 WSCC(NW) 42 +1 WSCC(RK) 40 -6 WSCC(SW) 63 +3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 49 47 46 45 47 62 66 65 Max 52 50 55 50 52 69 67 68 Min 47 45 41 42 44 56 66 63 Range 5 5 14 8 8 13 1 5 StD-P 1.5 1.9 5.9 3.3 3.0 6.0 0.3 1.7 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4   Day 10: Wednesday, November  7, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 45 -7 ERCOT(SP) 61 -7 FRCC(SE) 66 -3 MAAC(NE) 50 -3 MAIN(CTR) 41 -14 MAPP(HP) 36 -11 NPCC(NE) 45 -3 SERC(SE) 60 +1 SPP(SP) 47 -19 WSCC(NW) 42 +3 WSCC(RK) 41 +3 WSCC(SW) 61 +3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 41 43 43 42 60 58 56 Max 40 44 46 45 43 61 58 61 Min 40 39 38 42 40 57 56 47 Range 0 5 8 3 3 4 2 14 StD-P 0.0 1.9 3.6 1.2 1.4 1.9 0.9 6.0 Count 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]