Weather Headlines
Tuesday February 5, 2002
There is still no true arctic air in the pattern, but the Southern jet
stream is active for storms and the trend is certainly colder than recent
weeks.
We have seen a definitive change in the weather pattern from last month.
January on the whole featured the strong ridge and unseasonable warmth in
the Eastern U.S. while the West had a trough and occasional record breaking
cold. If you smooth out the maps, we will see in general a reversal over
the next two weeks with a trough in the East and Ridge in the West. I still
don't see any highlight making cold with this trough, but a "cold and
stormy" projection does not seem unreasonable for the East. We have this
morning a storm in the South that will bring snow to Oklahoma and NW Texas
today with rain farther South. It will track towards the SE U.S. coast
through Thursday then appears to move out to sea. The Interior SE may see
some light to moderate snow with this, but otherwise will be a rainmaker.
This should be the most significant weather maker in the short term. The
coldest of the air in the short term covers the Eastern U.S. right now.
This should start modifying although only in a gradual sense through the
rest of the week.
The same threats and questions raised yesterday in the 6-10 day outlook
still apply today. The Canadian and European schemes still look sharper
with the western ridge and eastern trough than their American counterpart.
The correct forecast up to now most of the time was to go with the warmer
solution. This time I am running with the colder one. The Canadian model
has been consistent with a stronger Eastern trough since the middle of last
week. It brings a moderate batch of arctic air next week into the Eastern
U.S. The potential of some sort of East coast storm also remains in this
pattern. I am not by any means forecasting any brutal cold, but I am going
against yesterdays NWS 6-10 and 8-4 day outlooks which are above normal in
the Eastern U.S. I believe most of the region will grade out slightly below
normal instead while the West is in a moderating phase.
For the period Tuesday February 5 through Saturday February 9, expect the
following temperature trends:
Average 4 to 6-degrees below normal: Intermountain West, Gulf Coast,
Southeast...
Average 1 to 3-degrees below normal: Desert SW, California, Northeast,
Mississippi Valley...
Average 1 to 3- degrees above normal: Great Lakes, Ohio Valley,
Mid-Atlantic, Rockies, Southern Plains..
Average 4 to 6-degrees above normal: Northern and Central Plains...
Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist APB Energy / True Quote