Kevin Hyatt and I attended Sempra Energy Trading's weather derivatives 
briefing in Houston last night, chaired by their chief meterologist, Dan 
Guertin.  Dan's forecast for the winter of '00-01 seems to track pretty much 
lockstep with the CPC's.  Dan also believes that this will be an 
"oceanographic neutral" winter, with no El Nino or La Nina influences.  He 
sees slightly above average temperatures for the western marketplace and a 
relatively "normal" winter pattern (30 yr. avg.) for the mid-continent.

As far as monthly variations, he is predicting a cooler than usual November - 
December, and a slightly warmer than usual pattern for the remainder of the 
heating season.  He has promised to make his presentation information 
available to the briefing attendees.  If I can secure a copy of it, I'll pass 
it on.




ET & S Business Intelligence Department
From: Lorna Brennan on 09/21/2000 04:04 PM
To: Lynn Blair/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Rick Dietz/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Steven 
January/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Sheila Nacey/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Donna 
Scott/FGT/Enron@ENRON, Julia White/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Mike 
McGowan/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Michael Bodnar/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Joni 
Bollinger/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, David Badura/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Janet 
Bowers/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Craig Buehler/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Bob 
Burleson/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Allen Cohrs/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, John 
Fiscus/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Steve Gilbert/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Morgan 
Gottsponer/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Stephen Herber/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Dana 
Jones/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Stephanie Korbelik/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Bill 
Mangels/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Penny McCarran/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Vernon 
Mercaldo/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Larry Pavlou/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Eileen 
Peebles/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Tony Perry/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Loren 
Penkava/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Ken Powers/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Chris 
Sebesta/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Frank Semin/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Neal 
Shaw/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Larry Swett/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Kay 
Threet/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Mike Ullom/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Lisa 
Valley/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Chuck Wilkinson/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Jim 
Wiltfong/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Jo Williams/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Karen 
Lagerstrom/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Bob Stevens/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Sue M 
Neville/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Mike Barry/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Martha 
Janousek/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Kimberly Watson/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Don 
Powell/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Steve Weller/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Michael G 
Stage/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Tim Johanson/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Laura 
Lantefield/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Frank Oldenhuis/ET&S/Enron@Enron, Jeff 
Nielsen/ET&S/Enron@Enron, Tracy Schwartzkopf/ET&S/Enron@Enron, Robert 
Mason/ET&S/Enron@Enron, Sean Bolks/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Miriam 
Martinez/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Lee Ferrell/ET&S/Enron@Enron, John 
Williams/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Reyna Cabrera/ET&S/Enron@Enron, Theresa 
Branney/ET&S/Enron@Enron, Rockey Storie/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Kent 
Miller/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, John Dushinske/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Dave 
Neubauer/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Bill Fowler/ET&S/Enron@Enron, Steven 
Harris/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Jeffery Fawcett/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Lorraine 
Lindberg/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Kevin Hyatt/ET&S/Enron@Enron, Christine 
Stokes/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, TK Lohman/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Michelle 
Lokay/ET&S/Enron@Enron, Lindy Donoho/ET&S/Enron@ENRON
cc:  
Subject: CPC's Winter Weather Prediction for the U.S.

Climate Prediction Center Winter  Outlook
?
??? The Climate Prediction Center,  a unit of the National Oceanic and 
Atmospheric Administration, discusses the  outlook for this winter. The 
agency does not expect El Nino and La Nina to  affect global weather for the 
next nine months. The two weather patterns, which  occur because of changes 
in ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, directly  influence US rain 
patterns and land temperatures. The CPC says this winter will  be the first 
year in three that the US has not had a strong influence from this  
particular climate-driving force. But, that does not mean there will be a 
whole  lot of difference in terms of when winter will start. It will have 
something to  do with temperatures, because both La Nina and El Nino have 
tended to make  temperatures moderate in the winter.? The CPC expects that 
this winter  nationwide on average will still be slightly warmer than normal, 
but not as warm  as the last three. The northern part of the nation and 
particularly the  Northeast, however, could be an exception with colder 
weather. The warmer  pattern will be confined more to the West and the South. 
East of the Mississippi  with the exception of Florida should be cooler this 
winter and most of  California and the northern half of the Rockies and the 
Dakotas. For the fall  and winter, expect the Southwest to be the mild and 
dry.