Syncrasy - Weather for Business 
	


      Syncrasy, LLC?    713.228.8470 Off   713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue     Suite 1314      Houston, TX 77002    www.syncrasy.com      Sales:                   713.228.4407   Development Offices:   970.247.4139 Off   970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue       Suite 221        Durango, CO 81301   		    Complementary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.     - If you would like to receive this product first thing in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for subscription rates or send an email to sales@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com    - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to subscribe_tradersummary@syncrasy.com        Data last updated  Friday, Jun 08, 2001 at 07:46AM EST    Commentary last updated  Friday, Jun 08, 2001 at 08:47AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'     Today: Summary Forecast for Fri, Jun  8, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  76  +1  ERCOT(SP)  87  NC  FRCC(SE)  89  NC  MAAC(NE)  80  +2  MAIN(CTR)  77  +1  MAPP(HP)  77  NC  NPCC(NE)  77  +3  SERC(SE)  83  NC  SPP(SP)  83  NC  WSCC(NW)  75  NC  WSCC(RK)  81  -1  WSCC(SW)  87  +1      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   72 76 70 69 79 80 84 85  Max    77 81 77 76 83 84 87 89  Min     67 73 64 62 76 76 81 80  Range  10 7 14 13 7 8 6 9  StD-P  3.1 1.8 5.2 4.0 3.1 2.9 2.2 2.6  Count  9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9    Day 1-5 Discussion:  The Gulf Coast and Southeast continue to be the highlight regions due to their heavy rain potential into early next week. The remnants of Allison may still be spinning in the region early next week. Since the system has started moving SSW toward the Gulf Waters, speculation may intensify to the possibility of regeneration. I still don't expect it, but I can not dismiss the potential entirely. Whether this happens or not, more heavy rain looks likely from SE Texas into Alabama. There have been unofficial reports of close to two feet of rain in SE Texas. The rain though farther North and East remains welcome. Into Florida and the Carolina's, a cold front will spark additional welcome moderate to heavy rains.  The above developments may help to put a lid on daytime temperatures in the deep South for a few more days. This is not the case! for the Plains however. The ridge that has been in the SW for weeks now will flex NE. Temperatures in the 90's could get as far North as Nebraska and Iowa. A mild NW flow aloft will keep things slightly below normal from the Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic though a strong June sun is starting to work on the atmosphere. The only fresh cooling in the short term will be in the PNW as the next upper low moves in. This cooling should spread into the Northern Plains early next week.  Tomorrow: Summary Forecast for Sat, Jun  9, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  78  +1  ERCOT(SP)  88  NC  FRCC(SE)  88  NC  MAAC(NE)  79  +1  MAIN(CTR)  80  +1  MAPP(HP)  79  NC  NPCC(NE)  74  +2  SERC(SE)  85  NC  SPP(SP)  86  NC  WSCC(NW)  71  +2  WSCC(RK)  85  +1  WSCC(SW)  86  +1      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   74 79 68 65 83 80 85 83  Max    80 84 76 73 87 85 88 88  Min     68 74 62 59 79 76 81 79  Range  11 9 13 14 7 9 7 8  StD-P  3.3 2.3 5.0 4.4 2.7 3.2 2.5 2.3  Count  9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9   Day 3: Summary Forecast for Sun, Jun 10, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  79  +1  ERCOT(SP)  90  -1  FRCC(SE)  89  +1  MAAC(NE)  82  +1  MAIN(CTR)  81  NC  MAPP(HP)  81  +1  NPCC(NE)  76  NC  SERC(SE)  88  +1  SPP(SP)  89  -1  WSCC(NW)  66  +2  WSCC(RK)  82  +2  WSCC(SW)  83  NC      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   75 80 69 59 83 82 87 82  Max    80 82 78 67 85 88 91 84  Min     71 76 63 54 80 78 83 79  Range  10 6 15 13 5 10 8 5  StD-P  2.8 2.2 5.7 4.1 1.5 3.9 2.7 1.6  Count  7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7   Day 4: Summary Forecast for Mon, Jun 11, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  80  -2  ERCOT(SP)  91  -1  FRCC(SE)  89  NC  MAAC(NE)  77  -4  MAIN(CTR)  83  NC  MAPP(HP)  81  +5  NPCC(NE)  75  NC  SERC(SE)  88  -1  SPP(SP)  90  +1  WSCC(NW)  64  -3  WSCC(RK)  77  +2  WSCC(SW)  82  NC      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   77 77 67 57 79 82 87 80  Max    82 80 76 64 80 88 91 82  Min     72 73 62 52 76 79 84 79  Range  9 7 13 12 5 9 7 3  StD-P  2.7 2.3 3.5 4.1 1.7 2.9 2.3 1.1  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 5: Summary Forecast for Tue, Jun 12, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  84  NC  ERCOT(SP)  90  -1  FRCC(SE)  89  NC  MAAC(NE)  81  -2  MAIN(CTR)  82  +4  MAPP(HP)  74  +2  NPCC(NE)  77  -1  SERC(SE)  88  -1  SPP(SP)  87  +3  WSCC(NW)  67  -3  WSCC(RK)  70  -3  WSCC(SW)  82  NC      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   75 68 67 60 66 80 84 77  Max    80 73 79 67 74 88 90 83  Min     66 61 60 40 49 74 75 58  Range  14 12 19 28 25 14 15 25  StD-P  3.9 4.3 3.8 6.8 6.6 2.8 3.3 6.3  Count  6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6    Day 6-10 Discussion:  For the first time in awhile, the various longer range models are coming to a consensus. There is still a question in my mind as to whether I accept the solution. The models now agree to expand the ridge into the Eastern U.S. later next week and beyond. There are a number of compelling arguments to support this scenario. If one translates the upper level features down to the surface you get a return to the early April heat in the Northeast. The one difference though is the addition of tropical air to the mix. Where it does not rain, AC demand will certainly soar, but it is my feeling that there will be Showers and a cold front passage or two despite the upper level look. So, while yes it will be warming(and thats been well documented here for over a week) I want to see what the models look like Monday before committing to an expanded warm spel! l here. Besides this is all contingent on the next Pacific upper low lifting far North into Canada, a situation I am not yet convinced on. That low, by the way spells more tstorm mischief and cooling into the Northern Plains and Great Lakes during this period. The deep South slowly dries out while the east expansion of the ridge allows the amplitude to modify a bit in the West. Overall, it does look much more like a summer pattern nationally. It should though, climatological summer is less than 2 weeks away.  Day 6: Summary Forecast for Wed, Jun 13, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  82  +3  ERCOT(SP)  89  NC  FRCC(SE)  90  NC  MAAC(NE)  83  +3  MAIN(CTR)  77  +2  MAPP(HP)  71  -1  NPCC(NE)  79  +3  SERC(SE)  87  NC  SPP(SP)  80  +1  WSCC(NW)  71  -3  WSCC(RK)  70  -4  WSCC(SW)  82  NC      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   72 66 70 69 68 80 84 83  Max    76 70 81 72 74 87 87 86  Min     68 61 67 65 61 78 82 81  Range  8 10 13 7 13 9 5 5  StD-P  2.6 4.4 4.1 2.7 4.8 2.6 1.7 1.7  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 7: Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun 14, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  76  -3  ERCOT(SP)  87  -2  FRCC(SE)  89  NC  MAAC(NE)  80  NC  MAIN(CTR)  73  -4  MAPP(HP)  70  -5  NPCC(NE)  78  +2  SERC(SE)  85  -1  SPP(SP)  80  -5  WSCC(NW)  74  -1  WSCC(RK)  73  -4  WSCC(SW)  83  NC      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   68 71 70 71 75 80 80 85  Max    73 78 78 75 82 86 85 88  Min     61 64 66 69 69 78 74 83  Range  11 15 13 6 12 8 11 5  StD-P  4.8 5.7 3.2 2.5 3.9 2.3 5.0 1.9  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 8: Summary Forecast for Fri, Jun 15, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  76  +1  ERCOT(SP)  88  +5  FRCC(SE)  90  +10  MAAC(NE)  78  +5  MAIN(CTR)  74  -1  MAPP(HP)  72  -4  NPCC(NE)  75  +8  SERC(SE)  85  +7  SPP(SP)  84  -1  WSCC(NW)  74  +8  WSCC(RK)  77  NC  WSCC(SW)  83  -1      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   70 76 68 73 81 80 83 84  Max    76 79 76 77 84 86 89 88  Min     64 74 64 71 78 78 77 82  Range  12 5 12 6 5 8 12 6  StD-P  5.4 1.7 3.1 2.2 1.4 2.4 4.3 2.0  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 9: Summary Forecast for Sat, Jun 16, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  63  -12  ERCOT(SP)  80  -4  FRCC(SE)  81  +1  MAAC(NE)  65  -10  MAIN(CTR)  68  -7  MAPP(HP)  74  +5  NPCC(NE)  62  -7  SERC(SE)  76  -2  SPP(SP)  80  -6  WSCC(NW)  72  +3  WSCC(RK)  83  +9  WSCC(SW)  80  -1      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   70 75 66 75 80 78 84 83  Max    73 80 71 78 84 79 90 87  Min     67 70 62 72 73 77 81 80  Range  6 10 9 7 11 2 9 7  StD-P  2.5 4.6 3.9 2.9 3.8 1.0 3.2 2.8  Count  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4   Day 10: Summary Forecast for Sun, Jun 17, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  70  -3  ERCOT(SP)  82  -3  FRCC(SE)  79  -2  MAAC(NE)  66  -7  MAIN(CTR)  72  NC  MAPP(HP)  76  +8  NPCC(NE)  59  -9  SERC(SE)  76  -2  SPP(SP)  84  NC  WSCC(NW)  73  +2  WSCC(RK)  83  +8  WSCC(SW)  80  +2      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   66 67 64 63 69 75 77 72  Max    72 81 68 73 85 77 83 80  Min     59 53 62 53 49 73 71 63  Range  13 29 6 20 36 4 12 17  StD-P  5.8 14.2 2.5 9.9 16.2 1.8 5.5 8.1  Count  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     	
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