Atlantic Tropical Development Outlook      Issued:   08:30 AM Friday October 26, 2001   [IMAGE]   Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:   The only disturbance in the tropics that has any chance at all of affecting any land areas is a tropical wave in the central Caribbean, south of Jamaica. This wave is currently interacting with a fairly strong upper-level low pressure center to its west. The low center is producing considerable upper-level wind shear across the wave, preventing any development. However, there are some indications that this upper-level low may weaken in 2-3 days. If this occurs, then there might be some slight chance for tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean.   Certainly, we need to keep a close eye on any disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean, even this late in the storm season. Water temperatures are quite warm enough for tropical development there. The main inhibiting factor would be fairly strong southwesterly winds aloft across the southern Gulf. If anything should develop near the Yucatan peninsula early next week, it would almost certainly be a very weak tropical system, with thunderstorms displaced well to the northeast of any low-level center. We've seen many such systems over the past two seasons. Regardless of whether or not this tropical wave develops, it does have the potential to bring showers and thunderstorms to southern Florida toward the middle to end of next week. We estimate the chances for development to be about 5-10 percent.     Tropical Atlantic:   A tropical disturbance in the far eastern Atlantic southwest of the Azores is interacting with an upper-level low pressure center. There may be a very slight chance for some tropical development in the region, but this system will not affect any land areas at all.   Chris Hebert