WELCOME - Vol. 7 No. 4

TIMELY INVESTMENT INFORMATION - Weekly Economic Update
======================================================

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WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: January 26, 2002

Prior Week in Review:

Financial Market Highlights:
============================

                        01/25/02     01/18/02     %Change

S&P 500                 1,133.28     1,127.58       +.51%
Dow Jones               9,840.08     9,771.85       +.70%
NASD Comp               1,937.70     1,930.34       +.38%
Russell 2000              479.35       474.37      +1.05%
SOX Index                 535.94       523.04      +2.47%
Value Line                362.40       358.32      +1.14%
MS Growth                 563.87       558.74       +.92%
MS Cyclical               529.75       510.81      +3.71%
T - Bill                    1.68%        1.58%     +10 BP
Long Bond                   5.48%        5.37%     +11 BP
Gold - Oz-Near Month     $279.10      $283.40      -$4.30
Silver - Oz-Near Month     $4.31        $4.35       -$.04


Economic News:
==============

Not Much News Last Week - What There Was Was Very Positive
 Also FRB Officials And Chairman Greenspan Now More Upbeat
 Best Bet - No Rate Cut - Removal Of Bias - Spring Recovery


*December Leading Economic Indicators rose +1.2% -
 Subcomponents also solid
*Jobless Claims fell -15,000 to 376,000 - Four Week
  Moving Average fell -8,750 to 404,250
*Existing Home Sales eased -.8% in December - Full
  Year, though, was a record and unsold inventory falls


Regular readers should already know that we were quite happy
with last week's reports.  Not only were the economic reports
very supportive of our long held outlook for a recovery to
be underway by Spring, but we even had a few "powerful
conversions" to our way of thinking - various members of
the FRB and Chairman Greenspan himself.  Let's hope they're
right this time !

On Monday, when the markets were closed, various Federal
Reserve Board (FRB) officials were reported by the Wall Street
Journal to have downplayed the negativity of earlier remarks.
Then on Thursday Chairman Greenspan, in Congressional testimony,
noted " ... that some of the forces that have been restraining
the economy over the past year are starting to diminish and that
activity is beginning to firm."  That's about a 180 degree
turn, in a short period of time, from his "significant risks"
remarks that we noted a few issues ago.

It is not that his views of the economy have changed that much,
at least in my opinion, as I think he was genuinely surprised at
the interpretation of his remarks - as we were at the time. We
actually thought his speech positive in terms of his comments on
productivity growth.  But, most market participants focused on
the short term negatives not the long term positives.  Chairman
Greenspan's efforts on Thursday should help to redirect the focus.

One other point worth noting is that he also tried to dampen
the expectations for the recovery, as we have.  Again during his
Congressional testimony he noted that " ... although household
spending should continue to trend up, the potential for
significant acceleration in activity in this sector is more
limited."  Simply put, if the consumer sector doesn't "pop", and
it drives two thirds of economic activity, then logically the
recovery won't be too sharp.  But, as we have pointed out before,
such a scenario can be quite positive for financial assets.

Last week's important actual reports, jobless claims and leading
indicators, were both very positive.  Leading indicators advanced
for the third consecutive month, and importantly, at an accelera-
ting rate.  In addition, subcomponents were also supportive of an
economic recovery beginning soon - if it is not already underway.

The jobless claims report, although there were revisions to the
prior week, was also quite good.  Claims are again falling, but
perhaps more importantly they are now at a level below
September 11th.  The clear implication is that the labor markets
are stabilizing, a fact that will not be lost on the FOMC when
they meet.

Whereas last week we had noted that we didn't think another rate
cut was necessary, but that the FOMC could take out an "insurance
policy", it now seems quite likely that the FOMC is finished
lowering rates for this cycle.  In addition, while they may leave
the bias toward lover rates in place, our best bet is that the
bias is removed.  Given the strength of the leading indicators,
it would seem like tortured logic to try to argue that the
"significant risks" that Chairman Greenspan discussed only two
weeks ago actually exist.

Clearly, then, our view hasn't changed - we still expect an
economic recovery to be underway by Spring, and we expect the
"bounceback" to be less than the consensus expects.  We'll see if
we're right soon enough.  But if we are, the logical extension
for market participants is that cyclical stories will disappoint.

For now we're just happy enough having the FRB on our side as
the long term implications are quite positive. Stay tuned  !



Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================


Monday:      New Home Sales
Tuesday:        Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders,
                 FOMC Meeting - 1 st Day
Wednesday:      FOMC Meeting - 2 nd Day, GDP 4th Qtr.
Thursday:       Jobless Claims, Personal Income/Spending,
                 Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index,
                 Employment Cost Index
Friday:         Labor Department Employment Report,
                 Institute of Supply Management Index,
                 Construction Spending.



Fresh Money Buys:
=================

In response to subscriber feedback, we have established this
section to highlight recommendations from our list that we
believe are the most attractively priced currently.  We will
limit the selections to three each week, even as our list of
recommendations changes.

Fannie Mae (FNM)                               $81.30
First Data Corp. (FDC)                         $81.14
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)                              $41.70


Original reports from the time of recommendation, are
         available on our Website at:

    http://www.stockresearch.com/archive.html


You may obtain a "second opinion" from VectorVest, a service
that provides limited access free so you may try their
service at:

    http://www.stockresearch.com/vv.html


We will not track the performance of this list as we are
already monitoring the original recommendations.  Hope
this helps.

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Bob Bose
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