Results of the Fearless Forecaster Sentiment Poll taken after the close on 1/11

Response was to this question: "At the end of next week will the S & P 500
close up (bull), down (bear), or unchanged/no opinion (neutral)?"

IT BULLS:	31%
IT BEARS:	58%

Our `Smart Money' Poll was 100% Bearish.

The Senticator is Bullish.

Last week, we said that sentiment was suggesting that we had a top coming
last week. We came right out and called it-- a top for last week, "Probably
before Wednesday." We nailed it, and we're going to take credit for it. We
know it was a tough one to trade, because we were shorting it too, but we
as accurate as one can get in a weekly report. Going forward, however, may
not be so easy for us.

This week, the Fearless Forecasters are heavily Bearish, and the "Smart
Money" Guys are 100% Bearish, so we have to favor some weakness, at least
early.

That said, we ought not forget the Senticator. It's Bullish. Next week is
options expiration, so if we get some weakness early, and it's met with
excessive put buying or other signs of pessimism, we'd expect some sort of
rally by or into Friday. We'll try to fine tune this for our regular
subscribers by watching the VIX and Rydex Ratios.

Big picture, we believe the recent dead-even Bull and Bear readings from
the Fearless Forecasters, as well as the AAII and Investors Intelligence
sentiment readings indicate that a Top of Intermediate Proportions is
either in, or about to come in.

Mark Young

See www.Traders-Talk.com in the Market Analysis area for a historical chart
of the
FF sentiment.

ABOUT SENTIMENT AND ANALYSIS

The Fearless Forecaster Sentiment Poll is taken each Friday from a
generally static pool of experienced technical analysts (both private and
professional). The Fearless Forecaster Sentiment is not normally a good
fade, though there are times when it can be.

The Fearless Forecaster sentiment data is useful on the short term; the
Fearless Forecasters tend to be right. Typically they are right sooner
rather than later, if there's a large plurality. On the flip side of the
equation, if 90% or more are Bullish or Bearish, the odds of them being
right over the very short term are huge, but the odds of a major turn (in
the opposite direction) soon thereafter are also quite good.

We have also found that when the Fearless Forecasters are evenly split,
look for a BIG move in either direction, but usually down.

Over the years, we have found a number of other tools to help in evaluating
the Fearless Forecaster Sentiment. We publish this in our weekly
"Institutional Sentiment & Analysis" (a part of our institutional
research). These additional tools are our "Smart Money" poll, and our
Senticator. Both are proprietary polls run by us.

We have found that the Senticator tends to be right by the end of the week
(as much as 87% of the time), though it tends to be more accurate in a
rising market than a falling one.

The "Smart Money" pollees are very useful when there is divergent opinion.
It's generally NOT a good idea to fade the "Smart Money" unless
"'EVERYONE'" (all sentiment measures) is in agreement. When in doubt about
the meaning of the Fearless Forecaster Sentiment Poll, defer to the "Smart
Money" poll. The "Smart Money" guys are folks with whom I've worked or whom
I've watched for YEARS. They all have different approaches and they're all
VERY good (not infallible, just good analysts/traders).
http://www.decisionpoint.com/affiliate/0ffsi.GIF