Weather Headlines
Monday October 15, 2001

*** Very fast pattern continues over the Eastern half of the country.
Models show tropical POTENTIAL for the Southeast/Gulf. They also continue
their insistence of a Western US trough in the extended period. ***

     This past weekends storm did not disappoint as a large heavy rain
shield developed. In the storms wake a sharply cooler airmass has descended
upon the Eastern half of the country. Reinforcements are on the way as rain
has broken out on the Plains. This next storm is quite dynamic, but does
not have the heat and moisture of its predecessor. However, it does have a
quick Canadian cold punch that will dominate the midweek period. The West
was quite warm this weekend, particularly the California coast. This above
normal air should largely remain in place through the next several days.
The region should start to cool late in the period if forecast changes
start to take place.

     Hurricane Karen was named North of Bermuda this weekend. I say named
because it actually struck Bermuda Friday as an unnamed storm with 90 mph
winds. It is now a Tropical Storm in the Canadian maritimes. There is a
disturbance in the NE Caribbean this morning. It does not have short term
potential to develop, but late this week there is a possibility. It bears
watching in terms of Gulf interests, but Florida looks more likely and it
may not even acquire tropical characteristics.

Model solutions continue to favor the development of a Trough in the West
and Ridge in the East. I accept it for now, but still feel we are in a
progressive pattern. Another interesting feature is the forecast
development of some legitimate arctic air in NW Canada by Day 10. Both the
Canadian and American solutions show this. The Canadian also shows a
classic "blocking" pattern developing over the Northern latitudes. This is
what most winter forecasts are alluding to and MAY offer a clue as to what
winter has in store. I suspect a piece of this will come down the last week
of the month, but for now I'll leave the 6-10 day warmer than normal South
and East and cooler in the West.

For the period October 15 through October 19, expect the following
temperature trends:
Average 4 to 6-degrees below normal: Great Lakes, Northern and Central
Plains, Ohio and Mississippi Valleys...
Average 1 to 3 degrees below normal: Pacific NW, Gulf Coast, Southern
Plains, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast...
Average 1 to 3-degrees above normal: Intermountain West, Rockies ...
Average 4 to 6-degrees above normal: California, Desert SW...
Unspecified areas will average close to normal...