-----Original Message-----
From: 	Imai, Rika  
Sent:	Tuesday, September 25, 2001 9:33 AM
To:	Benchluch, Moises; Benjelloun, Hicham; Cline, Kevin; Gim, Steve; Giron, Gustavo; Gualy, Jaime; Jenkins IV, Daniel; Kaniss, Jason; Lowell, Thomas; Mack, Iris; Makkai, Peter; Marquez, Mauricio; Oh, Seung-Taek; Pan, Steve; Santucci, Anna; Schiavone, Paul; Schneider, Bryce; Soykok, Gulay; Thomas, Paul D.; Wagner, Joseph; Williams, Ryan; Willis, Cory; Aggarwal, Anubhav; Dickerson, Lloyd; Freije, William; Gulmeden, Utku; Ha, Amie; Hemani, Sanjay; Kendall, Heath; Larkworthy, Carrie; Luong, Steven; Mahajan, Ashish; Moore, Castlen; Ochsner, Preston; Philippov, Maxim; Raque, Michele; Sharfman, Guy; Sudduth, Julia; Ulrich, Marc; Whalan, Jubran
Subject:	FW: Electricity Is Not Cyclical/Kit Konolige/MS Electric Utilities Research


FYI
 -----Original Message-----
From: 	Gualy, Jaime  
Sent:	Tuesday, September 25, 2001 7:07 AM
To:	Imai, Rika
Subject:	FW: Electricity Is Not Cyclical/Kit Konolige/MS Electric Utilities Research



 -----Original Message-----
From: 	Courtney Cleman <Courtney.Cleman@morganstanley.com>@ENRON  
Sent:	Tuesday, September 25, 2001 6:49 AM
To:	kkonolig@ms.com
Subject:	Electricity Is Not Cyclical/Kit Konolige/MS Electric Utilities Research

Morgan Stanley Electric Utilities Research

Kit Konolige  (212) 761-6237
Carrie Stevens  (212) 761-6183
David Reynolds  (212) 761-6078
Chris Bezler  (212) 761-4487

Electricity Is Not Cyclical!

* A reminder, electricity demand is non-cyclical
In 35 years, electricity demand has decreased in only 1 year,
despite 5 years of negative GDP growth.
* Industrial demand is only about 30% of total US electricity
consumption
And has fallen from about 40% of total consumption in 1980.
* Unregulated power should not trade in sympathy with cyclical energy
Inside we show the volatility in natural gas & oil consumption vs
electricity demand stability. Further, shortage supply conditions,
L-T sales contracts & wholesale market growth differs.
* What will get unregulated power up and running again?
A supportive FERC decision on El Paso's affiliate ruling,
visibility on '02E EPS in 3Q01, stabilizing natural gas prices,
and industry consolidation. Favorite names are MIR & CPN.
 - 111907.pdf 
 - Courtney.Cleman.vcf