i nailed this mother. unfort reduced my short on the f#$% aga and didnt
replace enuf shorts. more lost opportunity than anything. but gamma long and
vol length worked well. i called the break out  luckily but conservatively.
   not much hope i dont think-need hurricane shutins to avoid phys problems.
i think the phys problem come a bit earlier. last half sep when we get over
2.8 tcf. ratchets shud come in to impact by then. i hope we get to 2.50 or
less on spot-then have a n unbeleivably cold winter so next summer has a
chance. cuz man if its warm nov and dec-natgas gonna suck for alonfg time.
but then thatll help my petro positions at least.
  i think the downside put shorts shud be gettiung very very nervous. and
ther eshud be alot of them

-----Original Message-----
From: John.Arnold@enron.com [mailto:John.Arnold@enron.com]
Sent: Sunday, August 26, 2001 10:38 PM
To: LaFontaine, Steve
Subject: RE: rumours


wow, i missed this move.  didnt realize one number meant a 30%+ swing in
the price of natty.  then again, i don't know why i'm surpirsed.  this is
one market that can overreact.  trade extremely bearish here. have a hard
time seeing a strong bidweek.  i'm looking for a bull case and having a
hard time finding one.  think we have physical problems in oct?




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