Weather Headlines
Monday January 14, 2002
This week will see some significant differences from last week. Arctic air
finally gets into the battle, but can it win the war?
Signs continue to indicate this is a strange and frustrating winter for
many forecasters. One of the strongest N'oreasters in years forms in
Mid-January this past weekend. It turns out to be a harmless event for most
as it tracks just too far off the coast. Plus, it was too warm for snow
other than upstate Maine and a bit of Eastern Mass. Then, a seemingly
innocent looking system over the Great Lakes drops some locally heavy snows
over areas who spent much of last week over 20 degrees above normal. So
much for the look back now we look ahead. There are several challenges
ahead, though the main one for energy is in the medium range. I'll outline
that one in the 6-10 day paragraph below. In the short term, we have lost
the unusual warmth in the North, though to call this air cold is a
disservice to Northern climes. There are two distinct storm tracks this
morning. The Southern branch is all rain along the Gulf Coast and
Southeast. The North is a mix with rain in the Southern lakes and some
moderate snow in the North. We will see a couple of weak to moderate
weather systems come into the West and move across the country. They don't
appear to be travel interrupters, but may at least introduce some winter to
areas who have not seen much of late. When I superimpose a temperature
forecast atop all of this, it looks cooler than last week for sure, but
nothing major when compared to normal.
The 6-10 day period MAY become a bit more challenging. While the Lower 48
has basked in warmer than normal air the past 10 days, we have seen a
definite cooldown in Canada. There is finally a real arctic duck on the
pond, the question is does it swim South. If one looks at the MRF or
Canadian models the answer is clearly no. But, my favorite and seemingly
more reliable European is less clear. I think some arctic air will get into
the Northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast. The jet stream looks too
zonal farther South. However, heavy cold air can sometimes press South in a
zonal flow. I don't see a threat in the Southern half of the country where
in fact this period should be above normal. The main threat appears to be
North of 40 degrees Latitude meaning this is mainly a far Northern U.S.
event.
For the period Monday January 14 through Friday January 18, expect the
following temperature trends:
Average 1 to 3- degrees below normal: Pacific NW, Intermountain West,
Northern and Central Rockies...
Average 1 to 3-degrees above normal: California, Desert SW, Northern and
Central Plains, Great Lakes
Average 4 to 6-degrees above normal: Gulf Coast, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic,
Northeast, Southern Plains and Rockies, Ohio and Mississippi Valleys...
Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist APB Energy / True Quote