i read this as though 1.5 bcf/d of more switching takes place in the summer 
versus today.  is that because of the forward curves are backwardated for 2 
and contango for natty?


From: Jennifer Fraser/ENRON@enronXgate on 03/27/2001 06:55 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc: Alex Mcleish/EU/Enron@Enron, Richard Lassander/ENRON@enronXgate 
Subject: Incremental Fuel Switching For Distillate-- Summer Estimate

Given the shape of the curve, my guess for incremental substitution is 
1.5Bcf/d for No2 oil.  
So for the period  May-Sep01 an extra 1.5Bcf/d will be put back into the 
system due to No2 oil usage.




Futures Settlements                                          		Mar27-01						
	NG	CL	BRT	HO	GSL	HU	PN	
	$/Mmbtu	$/BBL	$/BBL	Cts/Gal	$/ MT	Cts/Gal	Cts/gal	
APR1	5.621	 27.75 	25.40	0.7794	216.25	0.9395	0.5375	
MAY1	5.661	 27.84 	25.50	0.737	213.75	0.9306	0.5375	
JUN1	5.703	 27.66 	25.39	0.7235	212.25	0.9111	0.5400	
JUL1	5.738	 27.40 	25.26	0.724	212.50	0.8853	0.5425	
AUG1	5.753	 27.12 	25.09	0.727	213.00	0.8558	0.5450	
SEP1	5.713	 26.85 	24.91	0.7325	213.00	0.819	0.5475	
OCT1	5.708	 26.58 	24.73	0.739	213.50	0.7765	0.5575	
NOV1 	5.813	 26.31 	24.53	0.745	214.25	0.7525	0.5600	
DEC1	5.913	 26.03 	24.27	0.7490	215.00	0.739	0.5600	







Futures Settlements  DIFFS VS NG (USD/ MMBTU)   (CDTY- 
NG)                                    							
	NG	CL	BRT	HO	GSL	HU	PN
	$/MMBtu	$/MMBtu	$/MMBtu	$/MMBtu	$/MMBtu	$/MMBtu	$/MMBtu
APR1	0.00	-0.86	-1.29	0.00	-0.64	2.19	0.28
MAY1	0.00	-0.88	-1.32	-0.35	-0.74	2.08	0.24
JUN1	0.00	-0.95	-1.38	-0.49	-0.81	1.87	0.22
JUL1	0.00	-1.03	-1.43	-0.52	-0.84	1.62	0.22
AUG1	0.00	-1.10	-1.48	-0.51	-0.84	1.36	0.23
SEP1	0.00	-1.10	-1.47	-0.43	-0.80	1.10	0.41
OCT1	0.00	-1.14	-1.50	-0.38	-0.79	0.75	0.44
NOV1 	0.00	-1.30	-1.63	-0.44	-0.88	0.45	#REF!
DEC1	0.00	-1.44	-1.78	-0.51	-0.96	0.23	0.23

Date	27-03	
		
Legend		
NG	NYMEX Nat Gas	
CL	NYMEX Crude Oil	
BRT	IPE Brent	
HO	NYMEX Heating Oil	
GSL	IPE Gasoil	
HU	NYMEX Gasoline	
PN	1 BBL = 42 Gal	
		
		
		
		
Date	27-03	
		
Conversions		
NG	1 BBL = 5.825 MMBtu	
CL		
BRT		
HO	1 BBL = 42 Gal	
GSL	1 BBL =0.134 MT	
HU	1 BBL = 42 Gal	
PN	1 BBL = 42 Gal	
		
		



Jen Fraser
Enron Global Markets Fundamentals
713-853-4759