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Tonight's Update is brought to you by the guys at www.FFChamps.com

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Hi Folks,

Here's how I see the Rushing Game Matchups this week.

PLEASE NOTE:   See the cheatsheet online at  www.footballguys.com for
exactly where I rank players and to determine who to start.   I always
receive emails asking me how I can have a guy ranked highly on the
cheatsheet but listed under a matchup that favors the Defense.   Just
because one matchup may be more favorable than another, that doesn't
necessarily mean I'd start the player with the best matchup.   Ahman Green
may have a horrible matchup one week but unless you're sitting on Edgerrin
James or Marshall Faulk, Green's your guy no matter who he's lining up
against.   The matchup info is meant to be just one more tool in your box
when it comes to deciding between players.

Stats are provided by Mike Hall's excellent FLM League Management Software.
http://www.fflm.com/ for more info.   Fantasy Points Allowed by position
numbers are from ESPN.com.
Let's get to it.

Joe

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Locks:  These games feature Defenses that should be overmatched against the
Offense.


Kansas City's Priest Holmes vs Arizona Defense

The bright spot for the Chiefs offense was Holmes last week as he rolled up
150 yards on 20 carries for a 7.5 ypc average plus 2 TDs.   Not a bad day
against a very good Pittsburgh defense.   This week, it'll be considerably
easier against the Cardinals.   Arizona ranks # 27 in Rushing Yards Allowed
per Game over the last four weeks and # 29 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.
They make everyone look good and that likely won't change this week.
There's also a chance Tony Richardson could play this week


St. Louis' Trung Canidate / Marshall Faulk vs New York Jets Defense

Faulk owners had quite a scare this week.   Over a 24 hour period, his
injury status went from 4 weeks to 2 weeks to possibly playing in this
week's game.   To make matters more frustrating, the Jets are weak defending
the run ranking # 29 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four
weeks.  They're # 26 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   They did look
better last week though but I still think they're very vulnerable.   Trung
Canidate will likely get the start and he could shine if given the
opportunity.   That system and surrounding cast is so good I'm not sure I
couldn't put decent numbers there.   If I had another option outside of
Faulk, I'd probably go there as it's very risky to look for anything from
him.   If I had Canidate, this could be the game to start him.


Jacksonville's Stacey Mack / Frank Moreau / Elvis Joseph vs Buffalo Defense

Tough call of the week here.   With Fred Taylor still out, my guess is it'll
be Mack getting the start.   Until he fumbles or fails to produce.   Both of
which have a pretty good chance of happening.   Then you'll see Frank Moreau
and our guy Elvis Joseph.   You may see a good bit of Moreau anyway.   The
frustrating thing is that the Bills matchup is so attractive.   They rank #
30 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks and # 28 in
Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   I'd go with Mack if you're in the gambling
mood as he just might pay off against that defense.


Arizona's Michael Pittman vs Kansas City Defense

Check Pittman's status this week as he's dealing with a concussion (that he
played through during the game)   Early this week, he was still having
headaches but I'd be surprised if doesn't get the bulk of the carries.
Thomas Jones had only 6 carries for 14 yards last week and I don't see that
changing a lot.   Pittman ran for 50 yards on 16 carries (3.1 ypc) but the
Chicago defense is very tough.   This week, he'll face a much softer KC unit
that ranks just # 28 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four
weeks.   When it comes to Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs, they rank # 20 for
the year.   I'm not too discouraged with last week's poor showing since the
Chicago D is very tough on the run and I think you may see Pittman perform
better this week.


Carolina's Tshimanga Biakabutuka / Richard Huntley vs Washington Defense

If you've been wondering if you should ever start Biakabutuka, here's your
chance.   The Redskins rank # 31 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the
last four weeks.   They also are worst in the league in Fantasy Points
Allowed to RBs.   On the flip side, Biakabutuka struggled against a tough
New Orleans defense last week gaining just 30 yards on 13 carries (2.3 ypc)
The biggest stat though was that he did have another fumble.   We've seen
already that Coach Seifert won't put up with much of that.   Bottom line is
that it's a great matchup but I seriously wonder about Biakabutuka's ability
to capitalize on it.


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Prime Matchups:  These games feature Defenses that should have trouble
stopping the Offense.


Tennessee's Eddie George vs Detroit Defense

Look for Eddie George to build on his positive performance from last week
where her rushed for 85 yards on 29 carries (2.9 ypc) against the Bucs.
He'll find the going easier against a Lion defense that ranks # 21 in
Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   They rank # 25 in
Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   They're improving, but clearly, they
haven't been able to stop many people.   George isn't his old self but he
may be getting there.   The improved play of QB Steve McNair was the big
news from last week and he needs to keep it rolling to take heat off the
running game.


Baltimore's Terry Allen / Jason Brookins vs Cleveland Defense

Jason Brookins is breathing down his neck but Allen's hanging pretty tough.
The veteran shows little signs of wearing down.   Against a very good Green
Bay defense last week, he ran for 75 yards on 18 carries (4.2 ypc)
Brookins totaled 33 yards on 9 carries for 3.7 ypc but here's a very
disturbing stat for Allen owners.   As you can see from our Red Zone data
http://www.footballguys.com/redzone1.htm , Brookins has gradually been
seeing more and more Red Zone touches.   In week 4, he had 8 rushes in the
redzone compared to 2 for Allen.   Last week, he had 4 red zone rushes while
Terry Allen had zero  (Allen did have a pass thrown to him in the Red Zone).
The Cleveland Defense is below average ranking # 22 in Rushing Yards Allowed
per Game over the last four weeks.  They're # 18 in Fantasy Points Allowed
to RBs.   Clearly, Brian Billick has confidence in Brookins with the Red
Zone touches and that's a trend that's likely to continue.


Washington's Stephen Davis vs Carolina Defense

If you've been hanging with Stephen Davis all season, you might as well give
him another shot here.   The Panthers are weak against the rush ranking # 25
in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   They rank # 21
in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   The Panthers will be forced to start a
banged up Linebacking corps that could be vulnerable.   Davis ran well
against the Cowboys totally 99 yards on 23 carries (4.3 ypc) but he needs to
get in the endzone.   He might get that chance against Carolina.


New York's Tiki Barber / Ron Dayne vs Philadelphia Defense

This one is tough to call right now.   Barber did some running this week and
is Probable to play.   The game is Monday night though so he's got an extra
30 hours or so to get ready.   Dayne looks to be ready to roll here and he
could do some damage against an overrated Eagle rush defense.   They have
the good reputation but in reality, they rank # 24 in Rushing Yards Allowed
per Game over the last four weeks.   They rank # 22 in Fantasy Points
Allowed to RBs so it's no fluke.   My best guess on Barber is that he'll
play a good bit.   I wouldn't be surprised to see the Giants look almost
back to "normal" with Dayne and Barber.


New England's Antowain Smith vs Indianapolis Defense

QB Tom Brady is improving every week and that's helping the running game.
This week they'll face one of the softer defenses in the league in Indy.
The Colts rank # 26 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four
weeks.   Even worse, when it comes to Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs, they
rank # 30.   Smith will need all the help he can get.   Last week, he ran
for 36 yards on 15 carries (2.4 ypc) against San Diego.   Although the
Chargers are tough and he did get a TD.   Remember that Indy is the team
that got Smith rolling back in week three where he broke out with 94 yards
on 22 carries (4.3 ypc) and 2 TDs.   He's inconsistent but this is a good
matchup for Smith.


Green Bay's Ahman Green vs Minnesota Defense

The fast track of the Metrodome paired with the Viking defense should make
for a nice game from Green.   Last week, Green was held to just 54 yards on
20 carries (2.7 ypc).   But that was against Baltimore.   Against a Viking
team that yielded 108 yards to James Stewart last week, I think Green will
fare even better.   Statistically, the Vikings have been ok ranking # 15 in
Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks and # 15 in Fantasy
Points Allowed to RBs.   But this team is struggling.


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Even Matchups:  These games feature no real advantage either way


San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson vs Denver Defense

LaDainian Tomlinson enters this week as the # 4 RB over the last 3 weeks.
He'll be facing a pretty tough Bronco defense ranked # 11 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   They're # 12 in Fantasy Points
Allowed to RBs.   Denver is tough between the tackles but Tomlinson has
shown he has the speed and skill to break outside when he needs to.   San
Diego knows Tomlinson is the key to their success and I expect them to lean
heavily upon him.


New Orleans' Ricky Williams vs Atlanta Defense

Williams is playing as well as any RB in the game right now.   He's running
hard and more importantly, he looks like he's having fun.   Don't
underestimate that angle for a guy like Ricky Williams.   The Falcon defense
is decent ranking # 16 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four
weeks.   They're a little tougher in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs where
they rank # 11.   I can't see benching him unless you're just totally loaded
at RB.


Indianapolis' Edgerrin James vs New England Defense

Play Edgerrin James.   You don't need me for that.   He rolled up 115 yards
on 26 carries (4.5 ypc) against Oakland Sunday night.   New England ranks #
19 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks and # 24 in
Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   Start James.


Detroit's James Stewart vs Tennessee Defense

James Stewart rolled last week against a weak Viking defense posting 108
yards on just 16 carries (6.1 ypc)   This week, he'll face a definitely
beatable Tennessee defense that ranks # 18 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game
over the last four weeks.   They're even more vulnerable if you look at
Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs where they rank # 27.   QB Charlie Batch
played a great game last week and he'll go a long ways toward helping
Stewart's numbers although this team does seem more interested in throwing
the ball than they do in letting Stewart control the ground game.


Buffalo's Travis Henry vs Jacksonville Defense

Travis Henry's had a week to rest and get's the national stage to prove
himself on Thursday night.   Jacksonville's defense has been up and down
this year.   They rank # 20 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last
four weeks.   LB Hardy Nickerson is still Questionable with his neck injury.
If he can't go, that'll surely be a plus for Henry.   Even without
Nickerson, they've been pretty tough only allowing 4 TDs in the last 4
games.   I think everyone pretty much agrees Rob Johnson isn't going to
carry this team now so look for Coach Gregg Williams to see if Henry can
shoulder the load.   Keep an eye on his knee situation as he's had a nagging
soreness that the docs are diagnosing as tendonitis.   The word now though
is that he'll be able to play through it.

Chicago's James Allen / Anthony Thomas vs Cincinnati Defense

Another week where it'll be tough to tell who gets the carries.   We keep
expecting Thomas to grab more and more time but Allen is hanging on.   Last
week Allen rushed 18 times for 75 yards (4.2 ypc) plus a TD.   Thomas had 11
carries for 58 yards (5.3 ypc)   Obviously, both were effective.   Allen is
still getting the Red Zone Touches though so it seems pretty clear that
coach Dick Jauron has faith in him.   The Bengals rank # 23 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last four weeks and # 14 in Fantasy Points Allowed
to RBs.   I'd look for a similar distribution of carries between Allen and
Thomas this week although I think you'll see more and more of Thomas.   It's
murky enough right now, that I don't honestly feel real good about either
guy.


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Downside Matchups:  These games feature a Defense that could pose trouble
for the Offense.


Tampa Bay's Warrick Dunn / Mike Alstott vs Pittsburgh Defense

Warrick Dunn made it back onto the field last week when he wasn't expected
to.   He did score a TD, but overall, he was totally ineffective rushing for
16 yards on 10 carries (1.6 ypc)   Mike Alstott was even worse running for 4
yards on 5 carries (0.8 ypc)   It's pretty bad when Brad Johnson has the
best ypc average on the team...at 2.0 ypc.   This week, they face a tougher
defense in Pittsburgh.   The Steelers rank # 8 in Rushing Yards Allowed per
Game over the last four weeks.   They rank # 10 in Fantasy Points Allowed to
RBs.


Pittsburgh's Jerome Bettis vs Tampa Bay Defense

Here's a troubling thought about Jerome Bettis for this week that was
brought up on our message boards www.footballguystalk.com this week.
Remember in week 1 when all the talk was about Bettis being limited in
Jacksonville because of his asthma and the Florida heat and humidity?
Bettis went on to total 28 yards on 12 carries (2.3 ypc) against
Jacksonville.  Guess what the weather is predicted to be in Tampa?
http://www.footballguys.com/weatherweek6a.htm   84 degrees and humid.   It
won't help that Tampa has a solid rush defense ranking # 12 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   They're stingier with points
ranking # 7 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   On the upside, Linebackers
Derrick Brooks and Jeff Gooch are probably not 100%.   I like Bettis and
he's on a roll but this is a tough matchup here.


New York Jet's Curtis Martin vs St. Louis Defense

Curtis Martin ran exceptionally well against a tough Miami Defense last week
posting 120 yards on 22 carries (5.5 ypc)   He's by far the focus of that
offense.   Look for more of the same this week against the Rams.   St. Louis
is solid against the run ranking # 9 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over
the last four weeks.  They seem to give up a lot of points though as they
rank # 17 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   Look for more Martin to again
carry the load.


Atlanta's Maurice Smith vs New Orleans Defense

Smith struggled last week against a good San Francisco rush defense.   He
only gained 50 yards on 20 carries (2.5 ypc)   Even worse, 24 of those yards
came on one carry.   That means he had just 26 yards on 19 carries for 1.4
ypc.  (Joes Note:  I'm not a fan of taking one big play away and looking at
the numbers as I think you can really skew the data that way.   But, it's
also something worth keeping in the back of your mind.)   On the plus side,
he garnered 20 of the Falcons 24 rushing attempts so he looks to be the man.
For an even bigger plus, he scored a rushing TD.   This week, he faces a
very tough New Orleans defense that ranks # 3 in Rushing Yards Allowed per
Game over the last four weeks.   They rank # 8 in Fantasy Points Allowed to
RBs for the season.   This may not be the best week to start Smith if you've
got other options.   I want to see how he does against this tough defense
and to see if Coach Dan Reeves starts using Bob Christian a little more.


Cincinnati's Corey Dillon vs Chicago Defense

Power vs Power.   The Bears have been playing excellent run defense behind
Brian Urlacher, Keith Traylor and Ted Washington.   They rank # 10 in
Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   More
impressively, they rank # 5 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs for the year.
Dillon will be a great test though as they've not faced a RB of his caliber
yet.   Last week he rolled for 140 yards on 31 carries (4.5 ypc) and a TD.
But the Browns don't bring the same defense that Chicago will.   The key
will be Jon Kitna and his passing game keeping the defense honest.   If the
safeties are able to walk towards the line, it might be a long day for
Dillon.   He's been handled by tough defenses once this year with Baltimore
holding him to 57 yards on 18 carries (3.2 ypc)   It should be noted though
that the Bears are not yet the Ravens on defense and that Dillon did find
the endzone in the Baltimore game with a TD reception.   Not the best
matchup for Dillon but one that will be fun to watch.


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Defensive Slam Dunks:  These games feature a very tough Defense posing major
problems for the Offense.


Philadelphia's Correll Buckhalter / Duce Staley vs New York Giants Defense

Duce Staley will likely make his return back from a shoulder injury this
week but it's unclear how much he'll play.   Rookie Correll Buckhalter's
done a very good job in his absence.   But I think it's pretty clear that
it's Duce's job when he's healthy.   I'm not too excited about either player
this week against a Giant defense that is shutting down the running game.
They rank # 2 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.
They rank # 3 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   I'd avoid both of these
guys this week unless you're really short on options.


Minnesota's Doug Chapman / Travis Prentice vs Green Bay Defense

Frustrated Michael Bennett owners can at least know for sure how he'll do
this week.   He won't play.   Bennett's nursing a bad ankle and Coach Denny
Green's named Doug Chapman the starter.   But also look for Travis Prentice
to see time as the short yardage / goal line guy.   Considering the Vikings
already have one of the best goal line "backs" in the league with QB Daunte
Culpepper, the situation is even murkier.   Throw in the fact that Green Bay
plays very solid rush defense and I'm not real excited about any of the
Viking RBs.   The Packers rank # 7 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over
the last four weeks.   And they rank # 4 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.


Denver's Mike Anderson vs San Diego Defense

Anderson will have his work cut out for him against a tough Charger defense
that held New England's Antowain Smith to 36 yards on 15 carries (2.4 ypc)
last week.   Anderson and the Broncos are a lot better than Smith and the
Patriots but still, it won't be easy.   San Diego ranks # 4 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last four weeks and # 2 in Fantasy Points Allowed
to RBs.   Anderson was held in check last week against a good Seattle
defense rushing for only 51 yards on 17 carries (3.0 ypc)   QB Brian
Griese's shoulder is still sore and Anderson will need a healthy Griese to
loosen Safety Rodney Harrison who's a run stopper supreme.   Terrell Davis
has been making a little noise about possibly playing this week but I don't
see it.  It's about to get murky again though.   If you don't feel like
dealing with the Shanahan guessing games here soon, you should move Anderson
now.


Cleveland's James Jackson / Jamel White vs Baltimore Defense

Don't go here.   Let's say it this way:   Last week, James Jackson totaled
22 yards on 14 carries for a whopping 1.6 ypc number.   Against Cincinnati.
I like the Bengals but they're not Baltimore.   Look elsewhere.
Baltimore's streak of not allowing a 100 yard rusher will end sometime.   It
won't be this week though.



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That'll do it for the Rushing Matchups.   Passing Matchups to follow.

Joe


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