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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Thursday, Oct 25, 2001 at 11:24AM ET    Commentary last updated: Thursday, Oct 25, 2001 at 09:51AM ET  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy/ True Quote     Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS  or Aquila    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'     Today: Thursday, October 25, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 54 +2 ERCOT(SP) 79 +4 FRCC(SE) 85 -1 MAAC(NE) 71 +2 MAIN(CTR) 48 -2 MAPP(HP) 41 -2 NPCC(NE) 67 +3 SERC(SE) 77 +2 SPP(SP) 64 NC WSCC(NW) 54 -2 WSCC(RK) 52 -1 WSCC(SW) 75 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 43 44 63 51 49 73 71 73 Max 49 52 67 55 55 79 78 78 Min 38 36 61 47 39 69 61 68 Range 11 16 6 8 16 10 17 10 StD-P 2.4 3.9 2.1 2.5 4.8 3.5 4.8 2.8 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10    Day 1-5 Discussion:   Powerhouse storm is about to exit. The coldest air of the season is about to enter. A significant warm up will commence late in the period.  The "storm of the century", "Superstorm", or whatever you want to call yesterdays event was over-hyped a bit in my opinion, but significant in some respects. There were some large tornadoes in Northern Indiana and the surface low pressure center had one of the lowest readings I have seen in an October storm. Otherwise, it was a squall line of t-storms with a turn to colder and windier weather, things we have certainly seen before and will see again. The cold front should reach the Atlantic coastline later today and another line of t-storms may certainly go up along it. We also have some measurable snow in Minnesota this morning and could see "some" lake effect snows! through Friday. Once this storm is off the field, the only inclement weather threats appear to be the PNW from a trough in the Gulf of Alaska and in Florida from something tropical. I do not mean from a named storm or hurricane, but merely that the disturbance originated in the Caribbean. A large polar air mass has swept in behind this storm insuring a drier and cooler than normal pattern from the Mississippi River and East through the weekend. The Plains start to warm early next week is ridging starts to evolve in response to troughing off the West Coast. Neither of these features look particularly strong in the short term and overall weather in the West has a benign look to it.  Tomorrow: Friday, October 26, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 44 -1 ERCOT(SP) 76 +1 FRCC(SE) 76 +1 MAAC(NE) 52 NC MAIN(CTR) 48 NC MAPP(HP) 42 NC NPCC(NE) 49 -1 SERC(SE) 65 -1 SPP(SP) 66 NC WSCC(NW) 61 +1 WSCC(RK) 60 +2 WSCC(SW) 76 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 47 46 57 55 63 69 73 Max 47 58 50 61 63 70 78 77 Min 35 38 41 52 44 56 58 68 Range 12 20 9 9 19 14 20 9 StD-P 2.8 5.1 2.5 2.8 5.8 3.8 5.3 2.8 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10   Day 3: Saturday, October 27, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 44 +1 ERCOT(SP) 75 +1 FRCC(SE) 69 -2 MAAC(NE) 51 +2 MAIN(CTR) 47 NC MAPP(HP) 49 -1 NPCC(NE) 48 +2 SERC(SE) 59 NC SPP(SP) 65 NC WSCC(NW) 55 NC WSCC(RK) 66 +2 WSCC(SW) 72 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 56 43 51 61 56 69 69 Max 47 62 48 57 68 61 74 73 Min 34 49 40 47 53 50 60 65 Range 13 13 8 10 15 11 14 8 StD-P 3.5 4.4 2.7 2.7 5.2 3.0 4.6 2.2 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8   Day 4: Sunday, October 28, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 50 NC ERCOT(SP) 76 +1 FRCC(SE) 70 -1 MAAC(NE) 50 NC MAIN(CTR) 55 NC MAPP(HP) 59 +2 NPCC(NE) 47 NC SERC(SE) 60 -1 SPP(SP) 70 +1 WSCC(NW) 54 NC WSCC(RK) 62 +1 WSCC(SW) 70 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 46 57 41 48 58 54 69 64 Max 55 63 48 54 65 61 75 70 Min 42 51 37 45 52 49 64 62 Range 13 12 11 9 13 12 11 8 StD-P 3.9 3.9 2.9 2.1 4.1 3.4 3.3 2.5 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6   Day 5: Monday, October 29, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 57 +1 ERCOT(SP) 76 +1 FRCC(SE) 76 -1 MAAC(NE) 58 +1 MAIN(CTR) 57 NC MAPP(HP) 54 NC NPCC(NE) 52 +1 SERC(SE) 66 -1 SPP(SP) 70 -1 WSCC(NW) 55 +1 WSCC(RK) 58 -1 WSCC(SW) 68 +3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 50 54 47 49 54 58 69 63 Max 56 58 54 55 61 67 75 69 Min 45 50 43 46 49 52 63 60 Range 11 8 11 9 12 15 12 9 StD-P 4.3 3.2 3.1 2.2 3.6 4.7 4.3 2.5 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6    Day 6-10 Discussion:  I don't have a lot of change from yesterdays 6-10 day outlook other than advancing things by one day. Warming that kicks in for the Plains advances East.Relative to normal this will be more pronounced initially in the North than the South though by late in the period all will share. I mentioned an atmospheric turnaround yesterday and still feel there is potential by the middle of next week to become almost as warm as the recent warm episode. The pattern remains progressive, but not as volatile as recent weeks. Charts show another trough pushing through the Plains and Eastern U.S. but it does not have the amplitude that the current one does. Therefore, it can't tap the arctic air and bring it down. I have a fairly high confidence level that the first week of November will be mild for the nation as a whole.  Day 6: Tuesday, October 30, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 57 -2 ERCOT(SP) 75 NC FRCC(SE) 79 -1 MAAC(NE) 59 NC MAIN(CTR) 56 -1 MAPP(HP) 52 -4 NPCC(NE) 53 -2 SERC(SE) 69 NC SPP(SP) 71 +2 WSCC(NW) 54 NC WSCC(RK) 56 +2 WSCC(SW) 67 +2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 50 56 47 48 51 60 66 61 Max 55 58 54 54 57 71 74 68 Min 47 54 44 44 48 57 60 58 Range 8 4 10 10 9 14 14 10 StD-P 2.7 1.5 3.0 2.6 2.6 4.1 4.6 2.7 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 7: Wednesday, October 31, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 58 -1 ERCOT(SP) 76 -1 FRCC(SE) 81 NC MAAC(NE) 58 -4 MAIN(CTR) 58 NC MAPP(HP) 55 -2 NPCC(NE) 50 -5 SERC(SE) 70 NC SPP(SP) 68 +1 WSCC(NW) 54 NC WSCC(RK) 54 NC WSCC(SW) 67 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 53 55 46 48 46 64 68 62 Max 57 58 52 54 55 72 74 67 Min 50 52 41 44 40 61 65 58 Range 7 6 11 10 15 11 9 9 StD-P 2.1 2.2 4.1 3.0 6.0 3.1 3.0 3.1 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 8: Thursday, November  1, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 54 NC ERCOT(SP) 71 +1 FRCC(SE) 73 -1 MAAC(NE) 57 +1 MAIN(CTR) 55 NC MAPP(HP) 53 -1 NPCC(NE) 51 -1 SERC(SE) 65 +1 SPP(SP) 65 +4 WSCC(NW) 43 NC WSCC(RK) 42 +2 WSCC(SW) 61 +2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 55 54 54 47 47 68 71 64 Max 58 57 56 54 54 73 75 68 Min 54 52 53 43 42 67 68 61 Range 4 5 3 11 12 6 7 7 StD-P 1.0 1.6 1.4 4.1 4.3 1.9 1.6 3.1 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 9: Friday, November  2, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 57 +1 ERCOT(SP) 71 +1 FRCC(SE) 74 -1 MAAC(NE) 58 -1 MAIN(CTR) 58 +3 MAPP(HP) 49 +1 NPCC(NE) 54 -1 SERC(SE) 65 +1 SPP(SP) 62 +2 WSCC(NW) 46 -2 WSCC(RK) 39 +1 WSCC(SW) 62 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 55 50 55 47 44 67 69 65 Max 56 59 55 49 55 69 69 69 Min 52 46 54 46 38 66 69 62 Range 4 13 1 3 17 3 0 7 StD-P 1.4 4.4 0.6 1.1 5.5 0.9 0.2 2.7 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4   Day 10: Saturday, November  3, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 55 +3 ERCOT(SP) 65 -1 FRCC(SE) 75 NC MAAC(NE) 61 +2 MAIN(CTR) 50 +4 MAPP(HP) 49 +3 NPCC(NE) 56 -1 SERC(SE) 66 NC SPP(SP) 55 +4 WSCC(NW) 45 -6 WSCC(RK) 47 +1 WSCC(SW) 65 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 48 45 54 43 40 65 62 57 Max 52 51 57 45 48 67 65 64 Min 39 36 49 38 31 62 59 49 Range 13 15 8 7 17 5 6 15 StD-P 4.8 6.0 3.5 2.7 8.1 2.5 1.6 7.3 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]