-----Original Message-----
From: 	"Dr. Bob Sports" <football@drbobsports.com>@ENRON [mailto:IMCEANOTES-+22Dr+2E+20Bob+20Sports+22+20+3Cfootball+40drbobsports+2Ecom+3E+40ENRON@ENRON.com] 
Sent:	Thursday, September 06, 2001 9:21 AM
To:	Wilson, Derek
Subject:	College Football Best Bets

Dear Member:

I have 6 Best Bets this week in College football after going 2-1 last week (I counted
South Carolina as a loss since 75% of the people surveyed took a loss on that game). The
Strong Opinions were 0-4 last week, but remember, I DO NOT BET THE STRONG OPINIONS.
Strong Opinions have won more than they have lost over the years (about 54% to 55%), but
play them at your own risk (I don't want to here about if they lose. Or win, for that
matter). There are 10 Strong Opinions this week, listed below the Best Bets. Good luck on
the 6 Best Bets this week.

3 Star Selection
IOWA (-14.0) 38 Miami Ohio 14
After suffering through a 7-27 record the last 3 seasons, the Hawkeyes will be in the
hunt for a bowl bid this year. Iowa returns 16 starters from a team that was hit hard by
injuries last season and they are eager to flex their muscles on lesser teams, as they
did last week in beating Kent State 51-0. Miami-Ohio is certainly a tougher test than
Kent, but the Hawkeyes should have no trouble disposing of the Redhawks. Iowa has a well
rounded offense that is anchored by a veteran offensive line and that possesses a quality
quarterback in Kyle McCann, a talented running back in Ladell Betts and a game-breaking
receiver in Kahill Hill that is due for a breakout season. Iowa ran for 331 yards at 6.8
yards per rush last week against a Kent State defensive front that I rate the same as
Miami-Ohio's, so I expect another good performance from the Iowa rush attack in this game
while McCann picks apart a sub-par Miami secondary when he needs to. Miami-Ohio possesses
a pretty solid rush attack and they ran for 127 yards at 4.4 ypr against Michigan last
week, but Iowa is solid up front on defense and the Redhawks don't have the passing
prowess to take advantage of a mediocre Hawkeyes secondary. Miami averaged just 6.2 yards
per pass last season with a seasoned quarterback and new starter, redshirt freshman Ben
Roethlisberger, averaged just 5.5 yards per pass last week against Michigan while getting
picked off 3 times. Iowa held Kent's poor pass attack to just 90 yards in 32 passes last
week (2.8 ypp), so they are capable of shutting down poor passing teams. Teams that were
3-8 or worse the previous year usually perform very well in game 2 after a victory in
their opener, so expect Iowa to be very enthusiastic for this game. The Hawkeyes also
qualify in a 31-7 ATS home favorite momentum situation as long as they remain favored by
18 points or less.<p>
<b>Downgrade Iowa to a 2-Star if they become a favorite of more than 14 points.
Pass if Iowa is favored by more than 18 points.</b>


3 Star Selection
PITTSBURGH (-21.0) 35 S. Florida 3
Pittsburgh will have one of the best defenses in the nation this year as they return 10
starters from a unit that gave up just 2.6 ypr and 6.6 ypp last season. The Panthers
opened the season with a 31-0 win over Division 1AA East Tennessee State and now take on
a South Florida team that played Division 1AA last season. South Florida was a pretty
decent 7-4 in the lower division last year, but they return just 8 starters for their
move to Division 1A. The Bulls are led by talented quarterback Marquel Blackwell, who
threw for a mediocre 6.8 yards per pass last year but tossed only 4 interceptions while
running for 566 yards at 4.4 ypr. Blackwell threw for 7.0 ypp last week against a poor
Northern Illinois secondary and lost yardage on the ground. While Blackwell is a decent
Division 1AA quarterback, he will not fare so well against a tougher schedule and will be
harassed by fierce Pittsburgh pass rush that registered 7 sacks last week. Without much
time to throw, I doubt that Blackwell will be able to find open receivers against a
sticky Pitt secondary. South Florida doesn't have a rush attack and (51 yards on 30
rushes last week against Northern Illinois) Pitt only allowed 2.6 ypr, so Blackwell will
be put in some unfavorable passing situations in this game and I doubt that he'll lead
his team to more than one score (if they score at all). Pittsburgh's offense is hurt by
the absence of All-American WR Antonio Bryant, who missed last week's game and is listed
as doubtful this week. Pitt is still a better than average offense without Bryant as
quarterback David Priestly has put up solid numbers in his two years as a part-time
starter (8.2 yards per pass) and he should perform well enough in this game to put up
enough points to cover the favorable pointspread (opened at 25 and has come down). Pitt
beat East Tennessee State 31-0 last week, out-gaining them 414 yards to 180 yards. East
Tennessee was rated about 4 points worse than South Florida last season and South Florida
is not as good this year with just 8 returning starters. In other words, Pitt is laying
just 21 points against a team that is very similar talent-wise to the East Tennessee
State team that they beat by 31 points last week. Perhaps the spread dropped when it was
reported that Bryant would not play again this week. However, that news was already in
the opening line and I would have played the Panthers at that higher number. The Pitt
defense will dominate again this week and winning by 3 touchdowns or more should not be a
problem.

3 Star Selection
TEMPLE 17 Toledo (-7.5) 16
Temple returns an amazing 20 starters from a team that took major strides last season and
I expect them to make it to a bowl game this year. The Owls were 4-7 last year and lost 3
games by 7 points or less (all their wins were by comfortable margins), so they were
actually better than last year's record indicates. Toledo, meanwhile, returns 15 starters
from a team that was 10-1 last year and they destroyed Minnesota 38-7 last week at home.
That big win will give us some line value here and I have no problem taking a Temple team
that is capable of containing Toledo's Chester Taylor, who is coming off a year in which
he rushed for 1470 yards at 5.9 ypr and ran for 186 yards last week against Minnesota.
Temple has an outstanding defensive front 7 that yielded just 3.4 ypr last year and will
be even better this year with 10 starters back on defense. The Owls were dominating up
front last week, holding Navy's option rush attack to just 49 yards on 31 rushes, and
they are good enough to limit Taylor's yardage today. Toledo quarterback Tavares Bolden
averaged just 5.6 yards per pass last season and just 6.0 ypp last week against a poor
Minnesota secondary, so limiting the run ought to be enough to limit the Rockets'
offense. Last season, Toledo averaged just 19 points against the 2 good defensive teams
that they faced (Penn State and Western Michigan) and Temple should be able to hold them
in that range today. The Owls' offense will have a tough time against a very good Toledo
defense, but Temple ran for 285 yards at 5.3 ypr last week against a decent Navy run
defense and they did that without star running back Tanardo Sharps, who was nursing an
injury in order to be ready for this week's game (he's listed as probable). Sharps ran
for over 1000 yards last year at a very healthy 5.2 ypr clip and he will be eager to play
well with another top running back on the opposite sideline. Toledo allowed just 2.5 ypr
last season but they faced only one better than average rushing team last season and that
team, Northern Illinois, ran averaged 4.6 ypr and scored 24 points against the Rockets.
Last week, Toledo allowed 3.4 ypr to a mediocre Minnesota rush attack, so I expect Temple
to run the ball fairly well in this game. Temple won't have to score too many points to
cover the generous pointspread since their defense ought to keep Toledo's scoring down
and the Owls qualify in a number of great situations today. Temple qualifies in a 54-15-1
ATS home underdog momentum situation and a 33-7 ATS statistical indicator. My ratings
favor Toledo by 3 points but I'll call for the outright upset by Temple given the great
situations that they are in.
<p><b>
Downgrade Temple to a 2-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog of less than 7
points.</b>


3 Star Selection
Washington St. (-4.5) 35 BOISE ST. 21
The Cougars gave us an easy 3-Star Best Bet winner last week in their 36-7 win over Idaho
and I will call on them again to deliver another winner tonight. Washington State's
balanced, potent offense should have another easy time moving the football as they face a
Boise State defense that returns just 3 starters from a unit that is just average against
the run and terrible defending the pass. Boise faced just 4 average or better passing
attacks last season and they allowed 322 passing yards per game at 7.8 ypp in those
games, including allowing Washington State to throw for 290 yards at 9.4 ypp in a 35-42
loss. Boise is even worse in the secondary this year with the loss of 3 All-Conference
defensive backs from that unit. South Carolina completed 69% of their passes against
Boise last week for 8.5 yards per pass and I expect similar results from Gesser this
week. Boise State scored 35 points in their loss to the Cougars last season, but the
Broncos are far less dangerous on offense with the departure of 4 year starting
quarterback Bart Hendricks, who averaged an incredible 9.6 yards per pass last year with
a 36-9 TD to interception ratio. New quarterback Ryan Dinwiddle averaged just 5.2 yards
per pass against South Carolina last week and this week faces another great pass defense.
The Cougars allowed 6.8 yards per pass last year against a schedule of good passing teams
that combined to average 7.3 ypp on offense for the season. With three-fourths of the
secondary returning, including 2 possible All-Pac 10 caliber players, the Cougars will be
considerably tougher to throw on this year. Last week, veteran Idaho quarterback John
Welsh, who averaged 7.9 ypp in 2000, was held to 66 passing yards in 26 attempts for 2.5
ypp! I doubt that Washington State can be that good again this week against the pass, but
I certainly don't see Dinwiddle doing much damage with his arm. The Broncos do have a
good rushing attack and they will probably pick up enough yards on the ground to score
some points. They just won't score enough to keep up with what their inexperienced
defense gives up. I am aware of Boise State's 10 straight spread wins at home, but all of
those wins were with Hendricks at quarterback and with Dirk Koetter as head coach,
neither of which is with the team anymore. Also, most of those big victories at home came
against lowly Big West teams. I am not concerned at all with Boise's home field advantage
as my ratings favor Washington State by 10 points and they also qualify in a solid 161-95-
4 ATS early season indicator that pegged them as a play last week also.

2 Star Selection
OREGON (-17.0) 24 Utah 17
The Ducks are an overrated team and I have no problem going against them with an always
competitive Utes squad that is 22-11 ATS as a road underdog under coach McBride,
including 13-1 ATS recently as a road dog of 2 points or more. Oregon, meanwhile, is now
just 8-19 ATS when favored by 9 points or more. I maintained most of last season that
quarterback Joey Harrington was overrated and I stated that again last week. The
Harrington for Heisman campaign is a joke. Harrington completed only 53% of his passes
last season for 7.3 yards per pass while tossing 14 interceptions. While those numbers
are certainly better than average (6.9 ypp is the national average), they are hardly
worthy of such praise. Last week, Harrington completed just 22 of 48 passes for only 5.8
ypp while throwing 2 interceptions. Utah loses all 4 starting defensive backs from a unit
that allowed just 6.1 ypp last season, but McBride has always fielded very good
secondaries. In fact, Utah has not allowed more than 52% completions in any of the last 7
seasons, including a few years when the secondary lost 3 or more starters. Last week,
Utah allowed just 5.4 yards per pass and intercepted 3 passes in their win over Utah
State, indicating that the Utes will be better than average defending the pass once
again. Utah is also good defending the run, as they allowed just 3.2 ypr last season and
should be just as good this year in that department. Oregon's RB Maurice Morris also gets
plenty of press, but he averaged a sub-par 4.2 ypr last season (the national average is
4.5 for running backs) and had just 18 yards on 15 rushes last week. Don't expect too
many points from the Ducks in this one. Oregon also has some trouble spots on defense
that Utah can take advantage of. While the Ducks have one of the nation's best
secondaries, the front 7 is vulnerable. Only 1 of Oregon's defensive front 7 is a
returning starter and the loss of players that accounted for 74% of the Ducks' tackles
for loss are now gone. Teams that lose such a high percentage of impact players on
defense usually struggle early in the season and Oregon qualifies in a negative 36-71 ATS
indicator based on that high percentage of sacks and tackles for loss from players that
have graduated. Wisconsin ran for a healthy 4.9 ypr against the rebuilt Ducks' front 7
last week and McBride will be smart enough to attack the Ducks on the ground with an
offensive line that did not lose a starter to graduation (although G Ta'amu is serving a
suspension). Utah ran behind that experienced line for 213 yards last week and will do a
solid job rushing again this week. I really don't expect much from the Utes' pass attack
against a very good Oregon secondary, but I am fond of defensive solid underdogs that can
run the ball and you should be too.
<p><b>
Pass if Utah becomes an underdog of less than 14 points.</b>


2 Star Selection
RICE (-9.0) 31 Duke 13
The loss of starting quarterback Jeremy Hurd may actually have been a blessing for the
Owls as it allowed sophomore Kyle Herm to lead the offense in last week's 21-14 win at
Houston. Herm had limited action in his freshman campaign and proved to be a good running
quarterback for the option, gaining 136 rushing yards at 6.5 yards per rush. Herm ran for
108 yards on 18 carries last week, solidifying his spot as the starter. Herm appears to
be the best fit to run the ball with, but he has had problems throwing it and managed
only 16 yards in 8 passes last week. That should not be a problem when Rice faces teams
that can't defend the run very well. Last week, the Owls ran for 354 yards at a healthy
5.1 ypr behind an offensive line with returning starters at every position. Running for
that many yards on grass against a Houston defense that allowed only 3.4 ypr last year is
a good indication of things to come. Option teams usually perform better when playing on
the same surface that they play on at home since a different surface can affect the
timing of their offense. Rice plays on artificial turf at home and they are 21-10-1 ATS
on the fake stuff the last few years while going just 10-18 ATS on natural grass under
coach Hatfield. Now, Rice comes home to face a Duke team that surrendered 4.6 ypr last 
season and gave up 200 rushing yards at 5.3 ypr to Florida State last week. While the
Blue Devils should be better defending the run this year, I still rate them as worse than
average and don't see them handling the option very well. A horrible Wake Forest offense
ran some option against Duke last season and the Blue Devils surrendered 244 rushing
yards at 5.1 ypr and 28 points to a Demon Deacons squad that averaged only 3.6 ypr and 16
points for the season. I forecast Rice to rack up over 350 rushing yards again today.
Duke's offense will be unable to keep up against a solid Rice defense that is better than
average against both the run and the pass with 8 returning starters coming back to a unit
that was solid a year ago (Rice allowed 29 points per game but faced great offensive
teams Michigan, Oklahoma, San Jose State, Fresno State, TCU and UTEP last season). Duke's
offense should be better than last year's unit that averaged just 14 points but they
still look pretty bad this year even with 8 returning starters. Rice qualifies in a 55-17-
1 ATS statistical indicator I see no reason not to ride that angle for a Best Bet since
that indicator plays on good rushing teams facing teams that statistically don't stop the
run well. That is certainly the case here.

Strong Opinion
Indiana 28 NO CAROLINA ST. (-6.5) 27
In last year's opener, the Hoosiers led the Wolfpack by 12 points with 5 minutes left but
could not hold the lead and lost by 3 points, one of 4 losses by 7 points or less during
their disappointing 3-8 season. Indiana had no trouble scoring (31 ppg), they just
couldn't stop teams from scoring more (39 ppg allowed). The big news in Bloomington is
the switch of exciting 3 year starting quarterback Antwaan Randle El to wide receiver.
Randle El ran for 1270 yards at 5.8 ypr but had a bad year throwing the football,
completing only 48% of his passes. Junior Tommy Jones steps in to play quarterback and
should do at least as well throwing the football. You might think that the running stats
would take a hit with the loss of Randle El's 1270 yards and 5.8 ypr, but a great
offensive line returns intact along with super running back Levron Williams (7.0 ypr in 2
seasons) and the running backs as a unit averaged 5.8 ypr last season. Overall, Indiana
should once again be a good offensive team. NC State put up pretty good offensive numbers
themselves last season with freshman quarterback Phillip Rivers and receiver Koren
Robinson doing most of the damage for a unit that averaged 32 points per contest.
Robinson was the #1 draft choice of the Seattle Seahawks and he will be sorely missed
after hauling in 1218 yards and scoring 14 touchdowns. Also missed will be offensive
coordinator Norm Chow, who transformed the offense in his one year here in Raleigh. While
Rivers should be better in his sophomore season, I really don't see him having much
better numbers without Robinson to throw to. Rivers was also aided last year with a
schedule of opponents that couldn't stop the pass. Rivers averaged a solid 7.0 yards per
pass, but NC State's opponents combined to allow an average of 7.6 yards per pass, so the
Wolfpack actually had a below average pass attack last year. The only team that NC State
faced that was better than average defending the pass was Florida State and Rivers threw
for only 5.5 ypp in that game. Indiana allowed a horrid 8.0 yards per pass last season
after losing 2 starters in the pre-season, but they will much improved in that area,
although still below average, this season with 3 of 4 starters returning and an upgrade
in talent. The Hoosiers will certainly improve upon the 4.7 ypr that they allowed last
season and I expect NC State to mount an average rush attack in this game after running
for only 3.3 ypr last season as they appear improved along the offensive line. While NC
State will have a decent offensive performance in this game, I will call for the Hoosiers
to control matters with their offense against a solid Wolfpack defense that will improve
on the mediocre 5.1 yards per play that they surrendered last season. NC State's strength
on that unit was defending the pass, but they were susceptible to good running teams last
year and allowed Indiana to rush for 236 yards at 5.4 ypr in last year's meeting.
Indiana's 16 returning starters have been focused on this revenge game all summer long
and teams with that many returning starters usually get their revenge in their opener. In
fact, Indiana qualifies in a 40-15 ATS game 1 revenge situation and they are capable of
the upset tonight.

Strong Opinion
TEXAS (-22.0) 35 North Carolina 7
Carolina scored on a 77 yard run early in the first quarter at Maryland last week but
gained just 276 total yards for the entire game in their 7-23 loss. The lack of offense
and a -3 in turnover margin masked another very good defensive effort by the Tarheels'
defense, who allowed just 246 total yards to the Terps after yielding just 286 yards to
Oklahoma the week before. The Tarheels have out-gained their two opponents by an average
of 283 yards to 267 yards per game, but are -7 in turnover margin. I doubt that Carolina
will even come close to out-gaining the Longhorns in this game and I see them getting
beaten soundly even if turnovers are not a problem for them (they were also -12 in
turnover margin last season). Texas didn't look too good on offense in last week's 41-7
win over New Mexico State, averaging just 4.8 yards per play, but the Longhorns have
plenty of firepower and I expect a better performance from that unit today. Texas
averaged in impressive 5.9 yards per play on offense last season and return 9 of 11
starters from that side of the ball and will be even better this year with Chris Simms as
the undisputed starting quarterback. North Carolina does have a very good defense and
they are especially tough to run on, but I don't see them keeping Texas from moving the
ball through the air. The Tarheels actually have an above average secondary, but they
allowed good passing teams Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson and Pittsburgh to average
10.1 yards per pass against them last season. Simms averaged 8.7 yards per pass last
season and should have a very effective outing today. North Carolina, meanwhile, will
have few chances to score against a Texas defense that rates among the best in the
nation. The 'Horns allowed just 2.7 ypr and 5.6 ypp last season and return 8 starters to
the defense and should be even better this season. North Carolina has a poor rushing
attack and throwing into the Texas secondary will only lead to trouble as Texas picked
off 18 passes last year and returned 5 of them for touchdowns. Texas has the best
secondary in the nation and Ronald Curry has not proven capable of consistently beating
any team through the air. Texas has covered 6 straight home games when not laying 27
points or more and this looks like a game that will add to that tally.

Strong Opinion
Georgia Tech (-24.0) 38 NAVY 7
Georgia Tech has whipped the Middies the last two years, 40-13 at home last year and 49-
14 here in Annapolis in '99. Navy's once great rush attack (284 yards per game at 5.2 ypr
from '96 through '99) has disappeared. Last year, the Midshipmen averaged just 178 yards
at 3.6 ypr and last week managed only 49 yards on 31 rushes in their 19 point loss at
Temple. The pre-season injury to great running quarterback Brian Madden hurt them last
year and Madden is expected to be out again this week due to a suspension. Starting
quarterback Ed Malinowski is a better throwing quarterback than Madden, but Malinowski
averaged just 2.0 ypr last year and had just 3 yards rushing last week. By contrast,
Madden ran for 961 yards at 5.3 ypr in just 5 starts in '99. Without Madden in the lineup
and with 4 new starters on the offensive line, I don't see Navy having any success
running against a very good Georgia Tech front 7 that allowed just 2.7 ypr last year and
held the Syracuse option to just 59 yards rushing on 26 carries two weeks ago (and
allowed just 70 yards on 34 rushes last week to the Citadel). Malinowski, while better
than Manning throwing the ball, is still a below average passer and I just don't think
he'll be able to beat a sound Yellow Jackets' secondary through the air. Georgia Tech has
held both of their opponents to 7 points and that's about all Navy will muster today. The
Yellow Jackets' offense struggled a bit in their first game without former offensive
coordinator Ralph Friedgen, but that was against a very good Syracuse defense. The
offense looked great in scoring 28 first half points last week and quarterback George
Godsey is now averaging 10.6 yards per pass with zero interceptions in two games and
ought to have another big day throwing into a poor Navy secondary that surrendered 8.8
yards per pass last season. The Middies are stronger in the secondary this year, but I
still rate them considerably below average and they will have no answer for Godsey. Navy
does stop the run pretty well and Georgia Tech still has not established a good rushing
attack (3.0 ypr in 2 games), but they will convert on most of their 3rd down passes and
move the ball even without the benefit of a good rush attack. Navy is just 5-18 ATS as a
home underdog of more than 3 points over the years and Georgia Tech should administer
another beating today even if they are peeking ahead towards next week's showdown with
Florida State.

Strong Opinion
Fresno St. 27 WISCONSIN (-4.0) 24
Fresno State is for real. A narrow win at Colorado and a 44-24 whipping of highly ranked
Oregon State have the Bulldogs believing in themselves and I'll call for another upset
win this week here in Madison. The Bulldogs are led by future NFL quarterback David Carr,
who has thrown for 538 yards in two games at 7.7 yards per pass with zero interceptions
against two very good defensive backfields. Wisconsin has a good secondary as well and
they held Oregon's Joey Harrington to just 5.8 yards per pass last week. However, Carr is
better than Harrington and should put up pretty decent numbers again this week after
beating one of the nation's best secondaries for 340 yards on just 34 tosses last week.
While Carr gets the press, it is the Bulldogs' defense that is the key here. Fresno State
has limited two explosive offensive teams to just 368 total yards per game at 1.5 ypr and
7.4 ypp. Leading Heisman Trophy candidate Ken Simonton from Oregon State had just 42
yards on 15 carries against the Bulldogs last week and Fresno is quite capable of
shutting down Wisconsin's rush attack as well. The 7.4 yards per pass that Fresno has
allowed is also very good when you consider that Colorado quarterback Ochs and Oregon
State quarterback Smith will both average around 8 yards per pass this season. Fresno
returned all 4 starters to a secondary that yielded just 6.2 yards per pass last year, so
there is no question that the 'Dogs can stop the pass. Wisconsin's Jim Sorgi has once
again done a good job filling in for injured starter Brooks Bollinger and Sorgi is
capable of putting up decent numbers in this game. However, the Badgers are a running
team and Fresno will not make it easy to move the ball on the ground. Fresno's offense
won't have much of a rush attack either, but Carr should move the ball through the air
well enough to get the Bulldogs into the end zone a few times. Fresno has not been a
great road team in recent years (5-17-1 ATS when not getting at least 12 points, but 1-0
this year), but the Bulldogs qualify in a 161-95-4 ATS early season indicator that has
worked well for me over the years.

Strong Opinion
MIDDLE TENN (-13.5) 41 Troy State 21
Middle Tennessee racked up 300 rushing yards and 308 passing yards in their 37-28 win at
Vanderbilt last week and they should rack up more huge chunks of yardage this week if
they can avoid the letdown after their big win over and SEC school. The Blue Raiders were
just as potent last year on offense and they should have good success against a Troy
State defense that was very good by Division 1AA standards, but will be below par in
Division 1A. The Troy State offense will be well below average in Division 1A ball and
they don't appear capable of taking full advantage of a soft Middle Tennessee defense
that allowed Vanderbilt to roll up 477 yards last week. MTS qualifies in a 55-17-1 ATS
early season momentum situation, so I will consider them a strong opinion in this game
based on that angle.

Strong Opinion
TCU (-12.0) 13 SMU 7
The Mustangs lost 6-36 at Louisiana Tech last week, but that was a VERY misleading final
and gives us plenty of line value on them this week. SMU's solid defense held Tech to
just 245 total yards, but two defensive touchdowns by the Bulldogs and a third TD set up
by another Mustangs' miscue led to 21 gift points. While the defense was as good as
expected, the offense was horrible. SMU was expected to be better offensively this year
with 8 returning starters on that side of the ball, but the Mustangs averaged a pathetic
3.3 yards per play against a soft Louisiana Tech defense. I do expect a better offensive
performance from SMU this year, but they will not be good enough to score much against a
TCU defense that is playing better than last year's outstanding unit. TCU opened the
season by limiting a powerful Nebraska offense to just 21 points on 310 total yards and
then shut down North Texas last week, holding them to just 129 yards and a lone field
goal. TCU's offense has gone from great to poor without star RB Tomlinson and the loss of
4 starting offensive lineman. The Horned Frogs were held to 186 total yards by Nebraska,
which certainly can be forgiven. But, TCU could tally just 198 total yards against a
North Texas defense that is not as good as SMU's stop unit. This ought to be a very low
scoring game and the points look worth taking.

Strong Opinion
GEORGIA 24 South Carolina (-2.0) 19
Last year, I pegged South Carolina to upset Georgia as a 10 point home underdog a week
after the Gamecocks broke a 21 game losing streak. A 21-10 win ensued and I rode the Lou
Holtz' team to a number of Best Bet wins as they remained underrated all season long.
Last week, I used South Carolina as a 2-Star Best Bet and 2 missed extra points (one
kicking and one two-pointer attempt) and a late Boise touchdown cost me the win in that
game. Now, it looks like all the value in taking South Carolina has ended as they went
from an opening 3 point underdog in this game to a 2 point favorite despite numerous
injuries. My ratings show that Georgia by 3 is exactly what the line should be and I'm
favoring Georgia to win by even more due to those Carolina injuries and a 102-42-4 ATS
home momentum situation favoring Georgia in this game. These two teams are eerily similar
on both sides of the ball, with South Carolina being a better running team and Georgia
perhaps a better passing team with young David Greene completing 21 of 29 passes for 285 
yards in his debut, rewarding coach Richt's choice to start him over the more experienced
Cory Phillips. Defensively, both teams are very good defending the run and extremely good
against the pass. South Carolina is no longer a pointspread value, so I will side with a
vengeful Georgia team in a good situation. Also, the Gamecocks were 0-3 straight up on
the road against good teams last year, losing at Alabama, Florida, and Clemson. They also
barely beat a weak Kentucky team 20-17 on the road last year. The fact that Bulldogs QB
Greene is so inexperienced is the only reason I'm not taking Georgia as a Best Bet in
this game.

Strong Opinion
ARIZONA ST. (-7.0) 21 San Diego St. 20
The Sun Devils' new offense will get a stiff test against a veteran San Diego State
defense that held Arizona to just 231 total yards last week. The Aztecs are very good
defending both the run and the pass and I expect Arizona State to be just average
offensively across the board this year, at least until they get comfortable with the new
offense. San Diego State's offense had the unenviable task of dealing with a dominating
Arizona defense and they could manage just 201 yards and 10 points in their loss to the
Wildcats. San Diego State doesn't have much of a running attack, but quarterback Lon
Sheriff averaged 7.5 yards per pass last year and returns his entire offense with him
this year. Sheriff should put up pretty decent numbers against a good, but not great ASU
secondary and the running game could contribute for once since the Devils should be just
average defending the run. It's tough to know exactly how the Sun Devils will perform in
new coach Koettner's offense, but I do know that San Diego State has a great defense and
taking points with them looks like a solid play, especially after their disappointing 10-
23 loss to Arizona in which the Wildcats returned a fumble for a touchdown. San Diego
State has 20 returning starters and teams with an abundance of veteran starters usually
bounce back from a sub-par opening game performance, especially in the underdog role.

Strong Opinion
VIRGINIA TECH (-15.0) 28 Western Mich 10
The Hokies are now without their two biggest offensive weapons from a year ago, #1 draft
pick QB Michael Vick and future NFL draft pick RB Lee Suggs, who was injured last week
and is out for the season. Hokies fans need not panic. Grant Noel did an excellent job in
his first start last week, completing 16 of 20 passes for 267 yards and 3 touchdowns and
appears to be a lot more accurate than Vick was (54% last year). I also don't think the
rushing attack will drop off much with Keith Burnell getting the load of the work.
Burnell is just as fast as Suggs and has averaged nearly 7 yards per carry in his 27
carries the last two seasons, including 9 for 71 yards last week. Virginia Tech averaged
5.2 yards per rush last year with Vick and Suggs as their top two rushers. Aside from
those two, the rest of the Hokies' backs averaged 4.85 ypr, so the rush attack will still
be good this season. Western Michigan will put up some resistance as they are a very good
defensive team. The Broncos allowed just 2.7 ypr and 6.2 ypp last year and performed well
outside of the MAC, limiting Wisconsin and Iowa to an average of 20 points (they also
allowed just 14 points to Toledo). Western Michigan will be just as tough defensively
this year, although not quite as good against the rush with the loss of two outstanding
linebackers (the secondary will be better though). My ratings still forecast 28 points
for the Hokies as they should run for over 4 yards per rush and throw for close to 7
yards per pass. Western Michigan's offense returns QB Jeff Welsh (7.2 ypp last year), but
only 4 other offensive starters return and Welsh will not have a running attack to
support him in this game. Virginia Tech also has one of the nation's top secondaries and
I don't see Welsh doing too much damage in the air. The line has been adjusted down due
to the injury to Suggs, but I don't see that as being too much of a factor so I will use
the line value and lean with the Hokies, who are 18-8-1 ATS at home when not laying 30
points or more. The Under is worth a look here.

Strong Opinion
Tennessee (-13.0) 20 ARKANSAS 7
This is a lot of points to be giving in what should be a game dominated by the defenses.
The Vols looked impressive on the scoreboard in last week's 33-9 win over Syracuse but
Tennessee's offense struggled against a solid Syracuse stop unit. The Volunteers ran the
ball better than I expected last week (197 yards at 5.1 ypr), but they had trouble
throwing into a good Syracuse secondary and Clausen completed just over 50% of his passes
for an average of just 5.0 yards per pass. I expect Tennessee to be able to run the ball
pretty well again this week against a mediocre Arkansas defensive front that allowed UNLV
to rush for 258 yards at 4.8 ypr. However, Clausen's difficulties should continue as well
against a Hogs secondary that is among the very best in the nation. Arkansas allowed just
6.0 yards per pass last season against good competition and return all 4 starters to
their secondary. Last week the Razorbacks limited UNLV's star quarterback Jason Thomas to
4 of 16 passing for just 40 aerial yards with 3 interceptions (Thomas averaged 8.8 ypp
last year and over 11 yards per pass against Arkansas in Vegas Bowl last December).
Tennessee will not be able to move the ball consistently without a good pass attack and I
don't see them scoring much more than 20 points, if that. Tennessee is also very good
defensively and the defend both the run and pass equally well. Stopping the run is the
key for the Vols in this game since Arkansas only has one quarterback that can throw and
he is unable to play. Last year, Robbie Hampton got most of the playing time despite some
nagging injuries and he averaged just 5.8 yards per pass. The other quarterbacks combined
to average a pathetic 4.0 yards per pass in 91 attempts while tossing 7 interceptions.
Last week, with Hampton not available, Zak Clark and Ryan Sorahan combined to go 10 of 32
passing for just 89 yards (2.8 ypp). Without a pass attack, it will be up to talented
backs Talley and Cobbs to carry the offense. However, Tennessee allowed just 2.8 ypr last
season and appears to be even better this year, holding a pretty good Syracuse rush
attack to just 1.8 yards per rush last week. The Arkansas backs combined for just 50
yards on 22 carries last week against a UNLV defense that stacked the line to stop the
run, knowing that Arkansas could not beat them in the air. Tennessee can do the same
thing today and the Razorbacks will have trouble scoring. I'd stay away from the side in
this one, but the UNDER looks appealing.



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