Stinson,

Do we want to revisit?

Vince

---------------------- Forwarded by Vince J Kaminski/HOU/ECT on 04/24/2000 
01:10 PM ---------------------------


"Martin Jermakyan" <martin@electrapartners.com> on 04/24/2000 09:59:38 AM
Please respond to "Martin Jermakyan" <martin@electrapartners.com>
To: Vince J Kaminski/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:  
Subject: My resume



Dear Vince,

Attached please find an updated resume of mine.

I have been continuing my research in the area of pricing, risk management
and asset management of power industry.  It seems to me that the framework I
have been working on does allow addressing some fundamental issues and
allows describing the salient features of power markets.  I feel a brief
info may inform you what have I been up to.

Conceptually speaking, my approach relies on the understudying that the
absence of cash and carry implies non-hedgibility of the most fundamental
building blocks of power market - forward contracts of hourly duration.
This clearly demands a risk premium embedded in power prices.  I have been
able to develop a machinery to capture this risk premium, and calculate its
impact on pricing of other products.  In particular, the method allows
consistent generation of hourly forward curve (per each geographic region),
hence generation of forward curves of longer duration.  It provides us not
only with forward curves, but also their physical (not risk-neutral)
distribution.  It also allows one to analyze the sensitivity of the forward
curve with respect to the volumetric risk.  As a fundamental  input ,  I
consider the ratio of properly compounded generation output (load) and the
corresponding maximum available generation supply.  The first one is well
observable and forecastable due to its stationarity.  The second one  is
defined by the first one and the generation and transmission profile of the
region.  Much of the required information is in the public domain.

The market price of risk incorporated in the model depends on this ratio and
the calendar time.  This time dependence of the market price of risk allows
capturing of the dynamics of the returns per unit risk over time, and its
dependence on the ratio mentioned above reflects the intuition and the
reality that closer the demand to the maximum available supply higher
compensation do the investors expect.

I have also realized that the transmission related factors may be
incorporated into this framework in a very consistent and robust manner.

This approach also allows quantification of the margins as a stochastic
process dependent on the volumetric factors, among other things.  It allows
posing and solving the problem of maximization of the margins while keeping
their variance under control in a very elegant and robust way.

I have developed the first version of mathematical tools and prototype
software reflecting all these issues.  My inability to complete this program
has been resulted from the severe instability, lack of access and the cash
flow problems I have experienced in the last few years.  I have also
understood that programs of this magnitude cannot be finished from the
"grandpa's garage."

Nevertheless, I think I have developed a very systematic and robust
understanding and methodology, and at least, I have convinced myself that
this approach leads to a comprehensive system.

With all this said, I don't want to make an impression of a stiff person,
who has his agenda and under any circumstances is willing to push it
forward.  I have always been very flexible, and in my consulting experience,
I have always accommodated the needs and wishes on my clients.  In my short
period of employment with Altra I have been very ethical, I have played by
the rules, I have done whatever I have been asked to do, and have been a
team player.  The reasons they have asked me to resign have nothing to do
with me personally.  They have been respectful to me, they have valued me as
capable person, but have found that given the direction of the company
(which has become self-evident with the consequent developments), "further
Altra goes, further I will be frustrated with where they go."  It was almost
formulated that it is better for me to separate from Altra as soon as I can.
As an evidence of appreciation, they have continued paying me as of today,
something that they have not done for some others, but it is coming to its
end, too.  I am bringing this up just to reiterate that my separation from
Altra has had nothing to do with me or my entrepreneurial working style vs.
corporate style, etc.  I have no doubts that I can function equally well in
either environment.

I wish that your presentation goes well with your new superior, and that my
joining Enron becomes a possibility.

Regards,
Martin







 - martin.doc