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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com       Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com  - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com  - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com     Data last updated: Wednesday, Oct 24, 2001 at 07:40AM ET    Commentary last updated: Wednesday, Oct 24, 2001 at 10:19AM ET  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote    Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMSor Aquila  Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'    Today: Wednesday, October 24, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 72 +1 ERCOT(SP) 87 +2 FRCC(SE) 87 NC MAAC(NE) 77 +1 MAIN(CTR) 57 NC MAPP(HP) 46 -1 NPCC(NE) 68 NC SERC(SE) 85 NC SPP(SP) 70 NC WSCC(NW) 51 -1 WSCC(RK) 48 +2 WSCC(SW) 73 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 58 45 67 46 43 79 78 71 Max 64 51 72 52 51 85 83 75 Min 55 39 64 41 34 75 72 65 Range 9 12 8 11 17 10 11 10 StD-P 1.5 3.2 3.0 2.9 5.1 3.5 3.8 2.8 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10    Day 1-5 Discussion:   Major Spring/Winter storm moving through the Midwest. Record warm temperatures to be replaced by an unseasonably cold air mass. However, pattern remains progressive so everything changes again next week.  I try to avoid the hype that many use in regards to storms. But, POTENTIALLY, this storm system could be one to remember. The Storm Prediction Center in Oklahoma has placed parts of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and Michigan in a "High Risk" for severe weather this afternoon and evening. This is a large area and very unusual for late October. Significant Tornadoes, damaging winds and hail are possible. Farther East along the Eastern Seaboard, a day of near record highs are expected before the cold front arrives Thursday night. There is also a winter component to this storm. Arctic air pouring in! to the upper Plains has produced some snow and near zero wind chills in North Dakota. Very gusty winds and a 20-30 degree temperature drop will shift South and East over the next several days. There is very little to write about in the West. The current pattern is zonal coming in from off the Pacific. The Northwest may be a little damp, but the rest of the West remains dry and close to seasonal. This weekend, as the East Coast trough reaches maximum amplitude, the jet in the Eastern Pacific should start to buckle allowing for a weak ridge to form in the Rockies.  Tomorrow: Thursday, October 25, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 52 NC ERCOT(SP) 76 +2 FRCC(SE) 86 +1 MAAC(NE) 68 +1 MAIN(CTR) 49 NC MAPP(HP) 43 -1 NPCC(NE) 64 NC SERC(SE) 75 NC SPP(SP) 64 NC WSCC(NW) 56 NC WSCC(RK) 53 NC WSCC(SW) 75 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 43 45 63 51 48 72 69 72 Max 48 53 66 57 55 77 78 76 Min 38 37 61 47 39 67 58 67 Range 10 16 5 10 16 10 20 9 StD-P 2.6 4.2 1.7 3.1 5.7 3.2 4.8 2.6 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10   Day 3: Friday, October 26, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 45 -2 ERCOT(SP) 75 -1 FRCC(SE) 76 -1 MAAC(NE) 53 NC MAIN(CTR) 46 -1 MAPP(HP) 41 +1 NPCC(NE) 50 +1 SERC(SE) 66 NC SPP(SP) 63 NC WSCC(NW) 59 +2 WSCC(RK) 56 +5 WSCC(SW) 75 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 39 45 45 57 53 62 67 72 Max 44 52 50 61 60 67 75 75 Min 35 36 41 52 43 56 57 69 Range 9 16 9 9 17 11 18 6 StD-P 2.4 4.5 2.7 2.5 5.2 3.5 5.5 2.0 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8   Day 4: Saturday, October 27, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 44 +1 ERCOT(SP) 74 +5 FRCC(SE) 70 -5 MAAC(NE) 49 NC MAIN(CTR) 47 +5 MAPP(HP) 50 +9 NPCC(NE) 46 -1 SERC(SE) 60 NC SPP(SP) 65 +7 WSCC(NW) 54 -5 WSCC(RK) 65 +8 WSCC(SW) 72 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 37 52 42 52 57 54 65 68 Max 46 59 46 56 66 61 72 72 Min 33 47 40 48 51 49 58 65 Range 13 12 6 8 15 12 14 7 StD-P 3.4 3.9 1.7 2.4 4.7 3.3 5.0 2.3 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6   Day 5: Sunday, October 28, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 50 +7 ERCOT(SP) 75 +8 FRCC(SE) 71 +2 MAAC(NE) 51 +2 MAIN(CTR) 55 +9 MAPP(HP) 57 +10 NPCC(NE) 47 +1 SERC(SE) 60 +4 SPP(SP) 69 +9 WSCC(NW) 54 -3 WSCC(RK) 61 NC WSCC(SW) 69 -3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 47 57 41 47 57 55 69 64 Max 57 63 48 54 64 62 75 69 Min 41 51 37 44 51 48 63 61 Range 16 12 11 10 13 14 12 8 StD-P 5.7 4.5 3.1 3.0 3.9 5.1 4.9 2.7 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6    Day 6-10 Discussion:  The 6-10 day outlook should bring the atmosphere back to roughly the current state(minus the big storm. I think it is important to mention that the arctic air forecast for the East in the short term is NOT the beginning of an endless winter. Winter forecasts continue to be released showing a cold and snowy East. That may be the case, but the calendar is just now approaching November or the middle of Fall. In fact, most medium range models redevelop the Eastern ridge and Western trough for this period. We will be starting cold East of the Mississippi, but should warm rapidly. I suspect the models are a little fast and strong with the ridge/trough set up, but the trend looks good. The MRF has a weak trough progressing into the Midwest by day 10 and this looks reasonable.  Day 6: Monday, October 29, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 56 +8 ERCOT(SP) 75 +7 FRCC(SE) 77 +4 MAAC(NE) 56 +4 MAIN(CTR) 57 +8 MAPP(HP) 55 +5 NPCC(NE) 51 +2 SERC(SE) 66 +6 SPP(SP) 70 +9 WSCC(NW) 54 -2 WSCC(RK) 59 NC WSCC(SW) 65 -7     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 50 55 44 48 52 58 68 61 Max 59 59 53 54 61 68 74 66 Min 45 52 41 44 45 52 64 56 Range 14 7 12 10 16 16 10 10 StD-P 5.7 2.6 3.6 2.7 3.7 6.1 4.5 3.4 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 7: Tuesday, October 30, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 59 +6 ERCOT(SP) 75 +1 FRCC(SE) 80 +5 MAAC(NE) 59 +3 MAIN(CTR) 57 +4 MAPP(HP) 56 +2 NPCC(NE) 54 +3 SERC(SE) 69 +6 SPP(SP) 68 +4 WSCC(NW) 54 -3 WSCC(RK) 54 -4 WSCC(SW) 65 -7     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 51 56 47 48 47 60 66 60 Max 57 60 56 54 54 71 73 66 Min 46 53 43 45 43 54 63 55 Range 11 7 13 9 11 17 10 11 StD-P 2.6 2.2 3.7 2.8 3.9 4.3 3.1 4.2 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 8: Wednesday, October 31, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 49 +6 ERCOT(SP) 69 +7 FRCC(SE) 72 +6 MAAC(NE) 52 +8 MAIN(CTR) 50 +3 MAPP(HP) 54 +6 NPCC(NE) 51 +8 SERC(SE) 61 +14 SPP(SP) 63 +9 WSCC(NW) 45 -9 WSCC(RK) 44 -5 WSCC(SW) 56 -12     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 53 56 52 47 48 64 68 60 Max 58 58 57 54 54 72 73 66 Min 51 54 50 45 43 61 63 57 Range 7 4 7 9 11 11 10 9 StD-P 1.8 1.2 1.9 2.8 3.7 3.1 2.3 2.8 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 9: Thursday, November  1, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 54 +9 ERCOT(SP) 70 +9 FRCC(SE) 74 +7 MAAC(NE) 55 +8 MAIN(CTR) 55 +9 MAPP(HP) 54 +7 NPCC(NE) 52 +7 SERC(SE) 64 +14 SPP(SP) 60 +2 WSCC(NW) 43 -6 WSCC(RK) 41 -11 WSCC(SW) 59 -9     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 53 51 52 44 43 66 67 59 Max 55 52 53 46 48 67 69 59 Min 49 51 48 43 41 64 65 59 Range 6 1 5 3 7 3 4 0 StD-P 1.9 0.3 1.9 1.4 2.4 1.0 1.0 0.4 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4   Day 10: Friday, November  2, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 56 +18 ERCOT(SP) 69 +5 FRCC(SE) 75 +8 MAAC(NE) 59 +20 MAIN(CTR) 55 +9 MAPP(HP) 48 -1 NPCC(NE) 55 +17 SERC(SE) 65 +12 SPP(SP) 60 -2 WSCC(NW) 47 +2 WSCC(RK) 38 -9 WSCC(SW) 62 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 50 46 48 43 36 63 65 55 Max 53 48 56 48 38 67 67 62 Min 46 42 33 39 33 58 62 47 Range 7 6 23 9 5 9 5 15 StD-P 3.5 2.1 8.8 4.0 2.4 3.4 2.1 7.1 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.comor    www.apbenergy.comor www.truequote.com   [IMAGE]