good points and yes the Dow just needs one more week like this to trade
under 9000 so 8000 is not a stretch.   Markets typically predict a recession
long before it arrives.  In the second q of this year you will see some sort
of headline that says Recession hits US.  I would buy that day.  As for
california, the worlds 6th largest economy,  energy is obviously your space
but I think that the calpines, capstones, and others are options such as the
contract they received last month.  Hope all is well.  Sweets party was fun.
It was only missing you and TJ. j
----- Original Message -----
From: <Kevin.Ruscitti@enron.com>
To: <jstamas@carolina.rr.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 22, 2001 5:15 PM
Subject: Good Buying Opportunity????


>
> Stamos,
>
> I don't think many buying opportunities out there.   The economy is going
> to get
> crushed this year.  There's only one place to put one's money now, and
that
> is in cash.
> The manufacturing sector is in dire straits and you will continue to see
an
> increase in
> plant shutdowns and company layoffs.  The Fed could continue to lower
rates
> but there'll
> be little capital investment if consumer spending dries up.  I feel we've
> just seen the beginning.
> I think the Dow will be trading under 8000 by the end of April.
>
> Psychologically, the California crisis will add to consumer fear.  The
> crisis is not a short term
> problem.  As a result, barring any Federal bailout, you could kiss that
> state's economy goodbye.
> Let me ask you a question; if you were paying (1) the highest real estate
> prices in the country, and
> (2) the highest energy prices for the least reliable power, in (3) the
> midst of a hi-tech meltdown, what would
> keep you or your company from closing shop and moving to a different
> state??  If you own any
> CA real estate, sell.  The only way to solve the CA energy crisis is to
> reduce demand or increase supply.
> Since CA doesn't want any power plants in its backyard, the supply issue
> likely won't be solved anytime
> soon.  So, how do impact demand??  You have to price energy(power/gas) so
> high that
> the discretionary user (household, manufacturer, commercial store)
> conserves by closing its plant, cutting
> back on the thermastat or running the commercial operation during off-peak
> hours.  California will see
> this reduction in demand over time.  If the blackouts subside it's because
> so many businesses have
> closed their doors for good or moved to another state.  Without this, the
> blackouts will get much worse.
> If the state tries to get into the business of buying and selling
> electricity and gas, I would bet it will go
> bankrupt within 2-3 yrs.  Could you imagine the impact on the national
> economy from the bankruptcy
> of the U.S.'s most prosperous state.  Obviously this is only my opinion,
> but I would keep my eyes on
> the energy markets - that's where the key to the turnaround lies.  Take
> Care and thanks for the email.
>
>
> Kevin
>