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----- Original Message -----  
From: john  stamas 
To: Paul  Scarborough 
Sent: Wednesday, January 03, 2001 9:17 PM
Subject: Is it safe?

Lower interest rates doesn't mean you can buy  companies with broken and 
unproven businessplans, Amazon.? It also doesn't  mean u buy the Wintel 
monopoly because the pc revolution has been over for a  couple of years.? I'm 
working on a liquid crystal display company called  Applied Films because I 
think screens are future, not laptops, not pc's or  hardware companies in 
general.? Lower rates will not save Xerox.? What  lower rates does mean is 
that if a company is hitting on all cylinders the  market may give it a 40 
price to earnings ratio instead of a 30.? It may  get the short sellers off 
our back on names like Nextlink, now called XO  communications whose business 
plan works but who needs lenders to open up their  wallets again and this 
time only to real companies, sorry Webvan, Priceline,  Pets.com, and of 
course Amazon.? If these lenders weren't so burned with  this paper they 
might still be lending to the internet infrastructure names like  XO and 
Teligent.? The trillion dollar question is will multiple  appreciation 
compensate enough for the earnings slowdown in the next quarter or  two.? For 
the autos I think not.? Remember my comments two months ago  about Auto 
layoffs around the corner.? Today GM announced Dec. sales down  almost 20%.
??? This is a critical time in the  market for investors.? If we can find 
stocks who won't be affected by an  earnings slowdown, McDonalds, then we 
should start to get some multiple  appreciation and therefore higher stock 
prices.? If Oracle grows at 40%  instead of 50% but the market starts paying 
higher multiples for strong  companies we could also see Oracle move higher.? 
And lastly for telecom  names that do have a sound strategy and management 
team,access to capital should  appear somewhere down this new horizon.
??? My suggestions are as follows:  My largest new position is a research 
fund by Goldman Sachs that closes to new  investors at the end of Jan.? 
Typically technology and financial stocks  lead the market when the FED 
begins easing like they did today.? This fund  is 25% in tech and 25% in 
financials with other names in the fund including  Merck, Philip Morris,Tyco 
and Enron.? The Goldman list was positive last  year even with such heavy 
tech exposure and a Nasdaq? market that was down  almost 40%. I feel it's a 
nice way to participate in a market that has been hit  hard.? The remaining 
positions may not be for everyone but here are some  suggestions
?
??? Libery Media Group
??? McDonalds
??? Oracle
??? Philip Morris
??? Echostar???  
??? XO Communications
??? Omnicom
??? JDS Uniphase
???? 
Aggressive Ideas:
??? BEA systems
??? Redback Networks
??? Efficient Networks
??? Applied Micro  Circuits
??? Sibel Systems
??? Openwave  Communications
??? Comverse Technology
??? Avanex
?
Tax bounce idea:
??? Northeast  Optics