Only if nuclear fuel storage problems persist.   The nuclear fleet, if unencumbered by NRC or spent fuel storage problems, will operate at 90-95% (95% during non-refueling years and 90% during re-fueling years).
 
Remember re-fuelings are now on a 24 month cycle and the next big cycle is spring and fall of 2003.   The 2002 re-fueling outages are actually less than normal.

-----Original Message-----
From: Arnold, John 
Sent: Monday, August 06, 2001 9:32 PM
To: Presto, Kevin M.
Subject: RE: ENERGY: Nuclear Mystery Close To Being Solved


do you agree with his numbers?

-----Original Message----- 
From: Presto, Kevin M. 
Sent: Mon 8/6/2001 6:24 PM 
To: Arnold, John 
Cc: 
Subject: FW: ENERGY: Nuclear Mystery Close To Being Solved



FYI. 

-----Original Message----- 
From: Miller, Don 
Sent: Monday, August 06, 2001 11:03 AM 
To: Presto, Kevin M.; Robinson, Mitch; Duran, W. David 
Subject: FW: ENERGY: Nuclear Mystery Close To Being Solved 


FYI 

-----Original Message----- 
From: Jon Cartwright [ <mailto:JCartwright@FI.RJF.com>] 
Sent: Monday, August 06, 2001 9:52 AM 
To: RJF Energy-Gram (E-mail) 
Subject: ENERGY: Nuclear Mystery Close To Being Solved 




>  <<IENER080601BSOW.PDF>> 
> 
> Raymond James Energy Stat of the Week, published 08/06/01. 
> 
> Nuclear power production is about to reach a peak and then drop off 
> dramatically through the course of 2002.  Record levels of nuclear power 
> production have offset the need for gas-fired electric production to the 
> tune of an estimated 1.5 to 2.5 bcf/d over the past six months and should 
> peak at about 3.5 bcf/d late this fall.  However, nuclear power fleet 
> utilization is expected to drop to under 91% heading into summer 2002, 
> down from a historic high of nearly 97% this past summer. What does this 
> mean to gas demand for the balance of 2002? Based on our work, we see the 
> Y-O-Y return of between 1.0 to 1.5 bcf/day of natural gas demand when 
> nuclear production hits the production cliff next spring.  While we have 
> generally been cautious short term on gas prices the past few months, we 
> have begun to identify or fill in some portion of the gas demand quotient 
> for next summer. Unlike this summer, next year is shaping up to be a far 
> more bullish year for gas, based on the need for gas-fired electric 
> production to pick up the slack. 
> 
> 
> The attached file is in the Adobe Acrobat *.PDF format. If you do not have 
> the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat Reader, you can download it free 
> from 
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> droter@ecm.rjf.com. 
> 
> If you have further questions, please contact any of the following members 
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> 
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