----- Forwarded by Miyung Buster/ENRON_DEVELOPMENT on 10/26/2000 04:09 PM 
-----

	Rob Bradley@ENRON
	10/26/2000 03:39 PM
		 
		 To: Miyung Buster/ENRON_DEVELOPMENT@ENRON_DEVELOPMENT
		 cc: 
		 Subject: New EIA Electricity Demand Growth Estimate: 3.1% growth in 1999



Attached is a press release from the DOE's Energy Information
Administration announcing a 3.1% increase in power generation last year.

This is the 3rd increase in the 1999 electric generation estimate from EIA.  
The first estimate was 1% growth from 1998, the second 1.6%, and the third is 
3.1%.  The 1999 increase comes on top of a 1998 increase of 3.5%--a year that 
some attributed solely to the El Nino warming spike.  Even if so, 1998 is now 
normalized by the 1999 jump.

Pancaking 3-4% growth years is really phenomenal, especially when the EIA 
forecast is around 1.5% per year growth.

Something is going on with electricity demand, and Mark Mills' 
Internet-electron thesis is looking better and better.

Whatever occurs with 2000 demand and generation, some consumption (phantom
generation) has been lost in California from the shortages.  Only with an 
open production (and transmission) market do we know how much demand is 
really growing.

- Rob


Energy Information Administration
EIA Reports
U.S. Department of Energy
Washington, DC  20585

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
OCTOBER 26, 2000

    Nonutility Net Generation Up 37 Percent in 1999

Net generation of electricity from nonutility (nonregulated)
generators increased 37 percent in 1999, advancing from
11 percent to 15 percent of total net electricity generation
according to information released today by the Energy
Information Administration in "Electric Power Annual 1999
Volume II" (see Figure).  Electric utilities (regulated
generators) and nonutility generators combined to produce a
record 3.7 trillion kilowatthours in 1999, a 3.1 percent
increase over 1998.

The shift in electricity generation from regulated to
nonregulated generators was driven largely by State-level
restructuring legislation which requires or encourages
divestiture of a utility's generating assets.  In 1999,
50,884 megawatts of electricity generating capability was
sold by utilities to nonutilities.  In addition to the
purchases of generating assets from utilities, nonutility
companies added 6,769 megawatts of new capability, compared
with the 3,689 megawatts added by utilities.

Additional highlights from the report include:

*  Over half (54 percent) of the nonutility net generation
   of nearly 0.6 trillion kilowatthours was from gas.  Coal,
   however, increased its share of nonutility net generation
   to almost 23 percent in 1999 from 16 percent in 1998,
   primarily as a result of recent purchases of coal-fired
   generating capability from utilities.  More detailed data
   on nonutility capability will be available later this
   month with the release of "Inventory of Nonutility
   Electric Power Plants in the United States 1999."  For
   detailed utility capability data, see "Inventory of
   Electric Utility Power Plants in the United States 1999"
   at:
   http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/ipp/ipp99_sum.html

*  Although there was a 3.1 percent increase in net
   electricity generation, utility and nonutility emissions
   of sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide were up 2.1 percent
   and 3.0 percent, respectively, as most new generating
   capability is gas-fired.  Nitrogen oxide emissions remained
   unchanged from the 1998 level.

"Electric Power Annual 1999 Volume II" is available on EIA's
Internet site at:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epav2/epav2_sum.html
Printed copies of the report will be available in November
from the U.S. Government Printing Office, 202/512-1800 or
through EIA's National Energy Information Center, 202/586-8800.
The figure referenced above may be viewed along with this
press release on EIA's Web Site or can be requested from EIA's
Press Contact.

**************************************************************
The report described in this press release was prepared by the
Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical
and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy.
The information contained in the report and the press release
should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration
and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any
policy position of the Department of Energy or any other
organization.
**************************************************************

EIA Program Contact: Robert Schnapp,  202/426-1211
EIA Press Contact:
National Energy Information Center, 202/586-8800

EIA-2000-19
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