Jeff,

Attached is a file that contains an analysis that Bob Badeer asked me to do 
for you.  The results are displayed on the "graphs" page in two graphs:

1. This (top) graph shows a typical portfolio that the utility might want to 
use to cover its short position.  I have displayed here a representative 
average monthly peak load shape for the year (it is acutally the CAISO avg 
peak load for the previous 12 months).  We have assumed that the utility has 
available 15GW of capacity ("utility-owned resources"), and that the 
remainder will be served through one of four types of contracts: a 10-yr 
fixed price, a 5-year fixed price, a 1-yr fixed price, or "monthly" prices 
(i.e., spot or balance of the month type prices).  We have then allocated the 
net short position among these four contracts in varying amounts, assuming 
that the utility would not want to be over-exposed to any one term.

2.  This (bottom) graph shows peak prices (using an average of NP and SP) for 
the next five years (1) for the four contracts listed above ("Monthly" is 
simply our forward curve) and (2) for a weighted average price assuming the 
allocation shown in the first graph.  We note that we have assumed a cost to 
generate for the utility's resources of $40/Mwh.

Hope this is somewhat clear.  If you have any questions, please call me at 
503-464-8671.  Thanks.