Syncrasy - Weather for Business
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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]      Syncrasy, LLC?    713.228.8470 Off   713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue     Suite 1314      Houston, TX 77002    www.syncrasy.com      Sales:                   713.228.4407   Development Offices:   970.247.4139 Off   970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue       Suite 221        Durango, CO 81301    		 [IMAGE]   Complementary version of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.     - If you would like to receive this product first thing in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for subscription rates or send an email to sales@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com    - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to subscribe_tradersummary@syncrasy.com         Data last updated  Tuesday, Jun 05, 2001 at 08:06AM EST    Commentary last updated  Tuesday, Jun 05, 2001 at 08:57AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'     Today: Summary Forecast for Tue, Jun  5, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  71  -1  ERCOT(SP)  89  -1  FRCC(SE)  88  +1  MAAC(NE)  78  +1  MAIN(CTR)  69  -1  MAPP(HP)  63  NC  NPCC(NE)  70  NC  SERC(SE)  86  NC  SPP(SP)  81  +1  WSCC(NW)  63  -4  WSCC(RK)  70  NC  WSCC(SW)  80  NC      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   64 65 66 57 69 82 86 79  Max    71 69 72 65 73 88 88 82  Min     60 61 62 52 62 78 83 74  Range  10 8 10 13 10 10 4 8  StD-P  2.3 2.1 3.6 4.2 2.0 3.3 1.6 1.8  Count  9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9    Day 1-5 Discussion:  A busy period is expected for many as the atmosphere is about to transition from spring to summer. Over the last several days we have seen the Gulf Coast and SE states become quite humid as the flow has come out of the Gulf. There is some upper level energy in this region as well and the waters off the Texas and Louisiana coasts are seeing some very heavy rains this morning. This tropical moisture will come ashore later today and spread NE over the next 48-72 hours. Combine that with another cold front and upper air trough sweeping in from the Northern Plains and you run the risk of seeing some significant rains from the Plains Eastward the rest of this week. Temperatures will still run below normal on average, but a brief bubble of warm air is coming North with a warm front in the Ohio Valley. AC usage may increase a little midweek due to the ! higher humidities which will keep overnight temperatures up. Of course most of this will be swept away late this week when the cold front moves through bringing one more shot of cooler drier air from Canada for the weekend. This should not be as strong though as the last several rounds.  In the West, the recent cooling trend will relax. The ridge will rebuild especially from the SW into the Rockies. More heat is anticipated later this week particularly over the Southern half. It does not look at this time that any significant heat will build West to the coast, but rather remain in the interior. I also don't see any significant precipitation over the next 5 days. Only light amounts are expected in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.  Tomorrow: Summary Forecast for Wed, Jun  6, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  72  +1  ERCOT(SP)  91  -1  FRCC(SE)  87  -1  MAAC(NE)  75  +1  MAIN(CTR)  70  +2  MAPP(HP)  70  +1  NPCC(NE)  70  NC  SERC(SE)  84  NC  SPP(SP)  83  +2  WSCC(NW)  68  -3  WSCC(RK)  76  -1  WSCC(SW)  86  NC      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   67 71 65 63 77 81 86 84  Max    72 77 74 69 79 86 90 87  Min     63 66 59 58 71 76 82 79  Range  9 10 15 11 8 10 7 8  StD-P  2.8 2.9 4.6 4.0 1.9 3.1 2.3 1.9  Count  9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9   Day 3: Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun  7, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  72  +2  ERCOT(SP)  92  +2  FRCC(SE)  88  +1  MAAC(NE)  69  -1  MAIN(CTR)  74  +2  MAPP(HP)  73  +1  NPCC(NE)  71  +2  SERC(SE)  84  +2  SPP(SP)  85  +1  WSCC(NW)  74  -3  WSCC(RK)  79  -2  WSCC(SW)  88  NC      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   69 74 63 70 79 79 87 86  Max    74 79 70 75 82 84 91 89  Min     65 69 58 66 75 76 81 83  Range  9 10 12 9 6 8 10 5  StD-P  2.5 3.4 4.1 3.0 2.1 2.7 3.0 1.7  Count  7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7   Day 4: Summary Forecast for Fri, Jun  8, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  76  +4  ERCOT(SP)  92  +3  FRCC(SE)  88  +1  MAAC(NE)  77  +5  MAIN(CTR)  76  +2  MAPP(HP)  75  -1  NPCC(NE)  73  +4  SERC(SE)  84  +3  SPP(SP)  85  +2  WSCC(NW)  77  -1  WSCC(RK)  81  -2  WSCC(SW)  86  +1      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   71 76 65 71 81 78 86 84  Max    76 81 74 77 83 85 91 87  Min     66 71 62 65 78 75 80 82  Range  10 10 13 12 5 9 11 5  StD-P  2.4 3.7 3.9 2.7 1.9 2.3 3.3 1.5  Count  6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6   Day 5: Summary Forecast for Sat, Jun  9, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  76  +2  ERCOT(SP)  93  +3  FRCC(SE)  88  +2  MAAC(NE)  77  +3  MAIN(CTR)  77  NC  MAPP(HP)  77  NC  NPCC(NE)  73  +3  SERC(SE)  86  +5  SPP(SP)  86  +1  WSCC(NW)  73  +2  WSCC(RK)  82  -1  WSCC(SW)  85  +3      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   70 76 64 63 77 78 83 79  Max    77 85 74 73 84 86 92 86  Min     59 58 58 50 54 70 69 60  Range  18 27 16 23 30 16 23 26  StD-P  5.7 6.9 3.5 4.7 7.7 3.2 5.2 6.6  Count  6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6    Day 6-10 discussion:  The screaming message in the models for next week is a warming trend in the East. I have heard the yelling on several occasions the last three weeks, but there seems to be some support for it now. Pattern changes in the Pacific, partiuclarly in Asia and near Hawaii support the ridge expanding NE out of the Intermountain West next week. The question becomes one of how far East and how strong. They all agree the ridge expands from the Plains to the Great Lakes. However, the U.S. and Canadian models expand all the way to the NE while the European does not. The key will be where the Western U.S. trough sets up. The U.S. model says its well off the coast, the others near or slightly inland. I have said for awhile that the next change would feature troughs near both coasts and a ridge in the middle. I see no reason to change that view for now. ! In addition, recent rains not to mention the potential for more the next several days will leave the ground moist enough to keep any major heat from developing. Ultimately, I see next week running near normal West and East and slightly above normal Central and South.  Day 6: Summary Forecast for Sun, Jun 10, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  74  NC  ERCOT(SP)  94  +3  FRCC(SE)  89  +3  MAAC(NE)  76  +1  MAIN(CTR)  78  +1  MAPP(HP)  79  +2  NPCC(NE)  72  NC  SERC(SE)  86  +3  SPP(SP)  87  +2  WSCC(NW)  68  +1  WSCC(RK)  82  +1  WSCC(SW)  83  +3      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   75 80 65 62 83 80 87 82  Max    80 87 73 68 84 86 93 84  Min     68 75 61 56 81 77 83 79  Range  12 12 12 12 3 9 10 4  StD-P  4.8 4.2 3.9 4.0 1.2 2.3 3.3 1.5  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 7: Summary Forecast for Mon, Jun 11, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  77  +3  ERCOT(SP)  94  +2  FRCC(SE)  89  +1  MAAC(NE)  77  +2  MAIN(CTR)  80  +5  MAPP(HP)  77  +1  NPCC(NE)  72  +1  SERC(SE)  85  +1  SPP(SP)  88  +2  WSCC(NW)  69  +1  WSCC(RK)  77  +1  WSCC(SW)  83  +4      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   75 78 66 60 80 81 88 80  Max    79 86 74 69 82 86 92 83  Min     70 71 61 54 78 77 83 76  Range  9 15 12 15 4 9 9 7  StD-P  3.8 5.8 4.4 3.7 1.5 3.1 3.4 2.7  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 8: Summary Forecast for Tue, Jun 12, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  80  +20  ERCOT(SP)  93  +5  FRCC(SE)  89  +11  MAAC(NE)  80  +17  MAIN(CTR)  79  +12  MAPP(HP)  75  +2  NPCC(NE)  76  +21  SERC(SE)  87  +12  SPP(SP)  88  +3  WSCC(NW)  70  +19  WSCC(RK)  76  +11  WSCC(SW)  82  +9      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   76 77 68 60 78 82 88 79  Max    79 83 78 70 79 87 92 82  Min     74 72 61 54 73 78 84 78  Range  6 11 16 16 7 8 7 4  StD-P  2.2 3.8 3.9 4.0 2.0 2.8 2.7 1.3  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 9: Summary Forecast for Wed, Jun 13, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  75  +16  ERCOT(SP)  88  +1  FRCC(SE)  78  NC  MAAC(NE)  75  +17  MAIN(CTR)  76  +9  MAPP(HP)  73  +6  NPCC(NE)  69  +18  SERC(SE)  79  +3  SPP(SP)  90  +6  WSCC(NW)  64  +5  WSCC(RK)  71  +8  WSCC(SW)  78  +1      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   76 75 67 65 75 80 87 81  Max    80 80 71 67 76 82 89 85  Min     75 72 61 64 73 78 85 78  Range  5 8 10 3 4 4 4 7  StD-P  1.8 2.6 4.0 0.9 1.1 1.8 1.7 2.3  Count  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4   Day 10: Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun 14, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  75  +12  ERCOT(SP)  86  -2  FRCC(SE)  78  -2  MAAC(NE)  76  +18  MAIN(CTR)  73  +4  MAPP(HP)  68  NC  NPCC(NE)  69  +14  SERC(SE)  78  +3  SPP(SP)  84  +6  WSCC(NW)  68  +2  WSCC(RK)  71  +4  WSCC(SW)  80  -1      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   69 64 65 57 62 76 79 70  Max    73 68 71 68 74 78 87 80  Min     62 58 56 45 47 73 71 59  Range  11 10 15 23 27 5 15 21  StD-P  4.1 4.3 5.8 10.6 12.1 2.2 7.3 10.3  Count  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]  	
		 [IMAGE]   909 Texas Ave., Suite 1314      713.228.8470  Main      www.syncrasy.com    835 Main Ave., Suite 221      970.247.4139 Main    Houston, TX  77002   713.228.4147  Fax   Durango, CO  81301    970.247.7951 Fax    713.228.4407  Sales       If you prefer to not receive future e-mails regarding Syncrasy Products and News Updates,   please REPLY to this message and indicate REMOVE in the subject field.