Syncrasy - Weather for Business
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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]      Syncrasy, LLC?    713.228.8470 Off   713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue     Suite 1314      Houston, TX 77002    www.syncrasy.com      Sales:                   713.228.4407   Development Offices:   970.247.4139 Off   970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue       Suite 221        Durango, CO 81301    		 [IMAGE]   Complementary version of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.     - If you would like to receive this product first thing in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for subscription rates or send an email to sales@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com    - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to subscribe_tradersummary@syncrasy.com         Data last updated  Monday, Jun 04, 2001 at 07:56AM EST    Commentary last updated  Monday, Jun 04, 2001 at 09:21AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'     Today: Summary Forecast for Mon, Jun  4, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  68  -1  ERCOT(SP)  91  NC  FRCC(SE)  91  NC  MAAC(NE)  75  NC  MAIN(CTR)  65  -3  MAPP(HP)  61  +1  NPCC(NE)  67  -1  SERC(SE)  85  NC  SPP(SP)  85  -1  WSCC(NW)  63  -1  WSCC(RK)  62  NC  WSCC(SW)  78  NC      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   63 61 64 59 62 82 90 77  Max    68 65 70 65 66 87 93 81  Min     58 56 60 54 54 77 87 71  Range  10 10 10 10 12 10 6 10  StD-P  2.5 2.7 3.4 3.3 2.8 3.2 2.2 2.1  Count  9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9    Day 1-5 Discussion: Short range models indicate the jet stream will remain unusually amplified this week. The temperature contrast may not be as large as the last two weeks, but rainfall and storminess look to be more widespread. More important, some of the best rainfall potential is located over the Gulf Coast and SE states. Most other areas East of the Rockies will see above normal rainfall prospects as well as moisture flows out of the Gulf into a warm front set up over the Mississippi Valley. This will lift into the Northeast midweek allowing a temporary surge of warm air to flow North. As mentioned last week, this surge may bring temperatures back to near normal for a day or two. Additional energy later in the week from Canada will allow our Eastern trough to amplify again sending a cold front and more moderate cooling deep into dixie. Energy needs East of the Ro! ckies still look below normal this week although AC usage will be increasing especially in the Southern states as the more humid air keeps night time temperatues up.  In the West, the excessive heat from last week has broken in many areas. There may be another round though later in the week. The same pattern that amplfies a trough in the East will also amplify the ridge in the West. It appears to be set up a little farther East into the Intermountain region as opposed to last weeks position right along the coast. Precipitation potential as is typically the case this time of year is rather limited. I am sure there will be some lighter showers in the NW, but hardly enough to help the hydro situation. The East slopes of the Rockies could see some moderate rains as a favorable upslope situation develops by midweek when a surface high builds in the Plains.   Tomorrow: Summary Forecast for Tue, Jun  5, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  72  -1  ERCOT(SP)  90  -1  FRCC(SE)  88  -1  MAAC(NE)  77  NC  MAIN(CTR)  70  NC  MAPP(HP)  63  NC  NPCC(NE)  69  -1  SERC(SE)  87  NC  SPP(SP)  80  -2  WSCC(NW)  67  -2  WSCC(RK)  70  +2  WSCC(SW)  80  NC      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   65 65 65 61 69 82 88 79  Max    72 69 74 67 72 87 91 82  Min     62 61 60 54 62 78 85 73  Range  11 8 14 13 10 9 5 9  StD-P  2.6 2.5 4.2 3.9 2.2 3.3 1.7 2.0  Count  9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9   Day 3: Summary Forecast for Wed, Jun  6, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  71  -3  ERCOT(SP)  91  NC  FRCC(SE)  88  -1  MAAC(NE)  73  -5  MAIN(CTR)  69  -1  MAPP(HP)  69  +2  NPCC(NE)  70  -2  SERC(SE)  84  NC  SPP(SP)  81  -1  WSCC(NW)  71  +1  WSCC(RK)  77  +1  WSCC(SW)  86  +2      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   66 71 64 66 78 80 86 84  Max    69 74 71 71 79 85 89 86  Min     63 67 59 61 76 76 83 83  Range  7 6 11 10 3 9 6 3  StD-P  2.1 2.3 3.9 3.1 1.3 3.1 2.0 1.1  Count  7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7   Day 4: Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun  7, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  70  NC  ERCOT(SP)  90  NC  FRCC(SE)  88  -1  MAAC(NE)  70  -7  MAIN(CTR)  72  +2  MAPP(HP)  72  NC  NPCC(NE)  69  +2  SERC(SE)  82  -4  SPP(SP)  83  +1  WSCC(NW)  78  +5  WSCC(RK)  81  NC  WSCC(SW)  88  +3      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   67 75 61 73 80 77 84 85  Max    71 78 69 78 83 82 88 88  Min     63 71 57 69 78 75 82 82  Range  9 7 11 8 5 8 7 6  StD-P  2.6 2.5 2.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.3 1.7  Count  6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6   Day 5: Summary Forecast for Fri, Jun  8, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  72  +3  ERCOT(SP)  90  +2  FRCC(SE)  87  -1  MAAC(NE)  72  NC  MAIN(CTR)  74  +1  MAPP(HP)  76  +1  NPCC(NE)  69  +3  SERC(SE)  81  NC  SPP(SP)  83  -1  WSCC(NW)  78  +9  WSCC(RK)  83  +2  WSCC(SW)  85  +3      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   66 74 61 68 76 75 81 79  Max    74 82 70 78 83 82 89 85  Min     53 57 55 53 54 67 67 61  Range  21 25 15 25 29 15 22 24  StD-P  5.4 5.6 4.2 6.4 7.3 3.6 4.7 5.8  Count  6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6    Day 6-10 discussion:  There should be some change to the pattern especially late in the period. Most of the long range models indicate the blocking in Canada will ease allowing for a Northward migration of the jet stream. In addition, there appear to be some jet stream alignment changes going on in the Pacific that should eventually translate downstream. If these occur, we should see a strong trough in the NW, a weaker trough in the NE and an expanding flat ridge in the middle of the country by mid-June. Sensible weather changes would include substantial cooling of the West and moderate warming of the North and East. The various long term models seem to be recognizing the change, but vary on its depth. The European is the most aggressive blasting summer from the Plains into the NE by Day 10. The American MRF may actually keep the East a little too cool as it has a ! more amplified trough in the NE. This seems to leave me in the Canadian camp today. I expect a more normal summer pattern to finally emerge by the middle of next week. But, keep in mind, I am saying NORMAL, not excessive heat. The last 3-4 weeks have seen a fairly widespread moderate to heavy rainfall occur over most of the East. These moist topsoils should keep temperatures from getting out of hand for awhile.  Day 6: Summary Forecast for Sat, Jun  9, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  74  +2  ERCOT(SP)  90  +1  FRCC(SE)  87  NC  MAAC(NE)  74  +3  MAIN(CTR)  76  +1  MAPP(HP)  77  +2  NPCC(NE)  70  +3  SERC(SE)  81  NC  SPP(SP)  84  NC  WSCC(NW)  71  +6  WSCC(RK)  83  +4  WSCC(SW)  82  +2      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   72 81 64 65 81 77 85 80  Max    77 86 71 71 83 82 89 82  Min     67 76 58 62 79 73 84 79  Range  10 10 13 9 4 9 5 4  StD-P  3.8 3.5 4.1 2.3 1.7 3.0 1.7 1.5  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 7: Summary Forecast for Sun, Jun 10, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  74  -2  ERCOT(SP)  91  +1  FRCC(SE)  86  -1  MAAC(NE)  75  -1  MAIN(CTR)  77  NC  MAPP(HP)  77  +1  NPCC(NE)  71  NC  SERC(SE)  83  NC  SPP(SP)  86  NC  WSCC(NW)  67  +1  WSCC(RK)  80  +5  WSCC(SW)  80  +1      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   74 81 66 60 81 78 87 78  Max    79 86 72 67 83 83 90 81  Min     68 78 61 57 79 74 85 75  Range  11 8 11 10 4 9 5 5  StD-P  4.5 3.4 3.6 2.8 1.4 3.2 1.2 2.1  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 8: Summary Forecast for Mon, Jun 11, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  74  +4  ERCOT(SP)  92  +8  FRCC(SE)  88  +12  MAAC(NE)  75  +10  MAIN(CTR)  75  +1  MAPP(HP)  77  +3  NPCC(NE)  71  +8  SERC(SE)  84  +11  SPP(SP)  85  +1  WSCC(NW)  68  +21  WSCC(RK)  77  +16  WSCC(SW)  79  +7      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   75 79 67 57 79 80 88 75  Max    83 83 72 68 80 84 91 79  Min     68 77 61 51 76 76 85 71  Range  14 6 11 16 4 9 6 9  StD-P  5.6 1.8 4.3 4.7 0.9 3.0 2.0 3.4  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 9: Summary Forecast for Tue, Jun 12, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  61  -13  ERCOT(SP)  88  +4  FRCC(SE)  78  +2  MAAC(NE)  63  -8  MAIN(CTR)  67  -8  MAPP(HP)  73  +3  NPCC(NE)  55  -14  SERC(SE)  75  +1  SPP(SP)  85  +1  WSCC(NW)  51  -2  WSCC(RK)  65  +8  WSCC(SW)  72  -5      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   74 74 63 56 73 79 87 76  Max    81 81 69 64 79 83 88 80  Min     67 69 57 51 71 76 85 73  Range  14 12 12 13 9 8 3 7  StD-P  7.0 4.7 5.7 4.8 2.9 2.9 1.4 3.0  Count  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4   Day 10: Summary Forecast for Wed, Jun 13, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  60  -13  ERCOT(SP)  87  +3  FRCC(SE)  78  +3  MAAC(NE)  58  -15  MAIN(CTR)  68  -5  MAPP(HP)  67  -2  NPCC(NE)  52  -21  SERC(SE)  76  NC  SPP(SP)  84  +5  WSCC(NW)  59  -3  WSCC(RK)  62  -5  WSCC(SW)  77  -3      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   67 62 57 52 59 75 81 67  Max    69 64 63 59 67 77 88 77  Min     66 58 53 44 48 72 73 57  Range  4 7 10 15 18 4 15 21  StD-P  1.3 2.3 4.2 7.2 7.7 1.9 7.2 9.9  Count  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]  	
		 [IMAGE]   909 Texas Ave., Suite 1314      713.228.8470  Main      www.syncrasy.com    835 Main Ave., Suite 221      970.247.4139 Main    Houston, TX  77002   713.228.4147  Fax   Durango, CO  81301    970.247.7951 Fax    713.228.4407  Sales       If you prefer to not receive future e-mails regarding Syncrasy Products and News Updates,   please REPLY to this message and indicate REMOVE in the subject field.