Syncrasy - Weather for Business
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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com       Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com  - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com  - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com     Data last updated: Friday, Dec 21, 2001 at 07:35AM EST    Commentary last updated: Friday, Dec 21, 2001 at 09:19AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy/ True Quote    Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMSor Aquila   New! >> Printable PDF Trader Summary (You must have Adobe Acrobat Readerto open or print a PDF)  Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'     Today: Friday, December 21, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 39 +3 ERCOT(SP) 67 NC FRCC(SE) 69 +1 MAAC(NE) 42 +2 MAIN(CTR) 41 +3 MAPP(HP) 36 +2 NPCC(NE) 32 NC SERC(SE) 57 +1 SPP(SP) 59 +3 WSCC(NW) 40 +1 WSCC(RK) 37 +1 WSCC(SW) 52 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 36 34 36 31 54 59 47 Max 40 41 37 40 40 62 66 53 Min 31 31 31 34 27 49 55 44 Range 9 10 6 6 13 13 11 9 StD-P 2.9 2.6 2.0 1.7 3.6 3.5 3.1 2.7 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:   Legitimate cold air poised to move into the U.S. the last week of the year. Some models also hint at significant winter storminess next week as well.   The next system should start cranking up over SE Colorado today and track towards the Great Lakes this weekend. This will still be more of a rain than snow event, but finally is the catalyst to really show the pattern change. As the storm exits in the East, a strong ridge builds on the West coast up into Canada which forces polar air South. High latitude blocking then keeps the polar air in place. The Midwest is the first recipient of this and it then spreads East into next week. We are rapidly losing the positive temperature departures. They should be gone all together East of the Rockies by Christmas. Of course they will be growing under the ridge West o! f the Rockies. Negative departures should become more prominent next week under this polar vortex. They will show up more in daytime highs rather than night time lows. I don't expect heavy precipitation in the short term from this, but persistent cloudiness and wind will add to the chill.    Tomorrow: Saturday, December 22, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 45 +2 ERCOT(SP) 67 NC FRCC(SE) 73 +1 MAAC(NE) 41 +1 MAIN(CTR) 45 +2 MAPP(HP) 31 +2 NPCC(NE) 34 +1 SERC(SE) 58 +1 SPP(SP) 50 -1 WSCC(NW) 38 NC WSCC(RK) 24 -2 WSCC(SW) 51 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 30 31 37 24 57 60 47 Max 43 40 37 40 39 62 64 53 Min 38 22 26 33 16 53 56 42 Range 5 18 11 7 23 9 8 11 StD-P 1.2 3.3 3.6 1.9 4.9 2.5 2.4 3.2 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Sunday, December 23, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 47 +6 ERCOT(SP) 55 -1 FRCC(SE) 76 +1 MAAC(NE) 48 NC MAIN(CTR) 34 +4 MAPP(HP) 20 NC NPCC(NE) 42 +2 SERC(SE) 54 -1 SPP(SP) 36 -3 WSCC(NW) 40 NC WSCC(RK) 29 -3 WSCC(SW) 52 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 23 38 37 22 59 48 48 Max 41 29 44 40 29 61 63 52 Min 30 17 34 32 12 57 36 42 Range 11 12 10 8 17 4 27 10 StD-P 3.0 3.3 2.2 2.1 4.5 1.1 6.1 3.0 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 4: Monday, December 24, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 35 +3 ERCOT(SP) 50 -2 FRCC(SE) 71 +1 MAAC(NE) 47 +4 MAIN(CTR) 26 NC MAPP(HP) 15 -3 NPCC(NE) 42 +2 SERC(SE) 51 +1 SPP(SP) 37 -4 WSCC(NW) 37 -3 WSCC(RK) 26 -5 WSCC(SW) 51 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 25 21 42 35 21 51 42 47 Max 32 27 45 40 30 59 51 52 Min 22 15 38 30 9 46 33 41 Range 10 12 7 10 21 13 18 11 StD-P 2.8 3.4 2.2 3.7 5.8 4.2 5.4 3.5 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 5: Tuesday, December 25, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 31 +1 ERCOT(SP) 48 -5 FRCC(SE) 68 +2 MAAC(NE) 42 +3 MAIN(CTR) 20 -2 MAPP(HP) 9 -5 NPCC(NE) 41 +5 SERC(SE) 46 +1 SPP(SP) 29 -6 WSCC(NW) 35 -6 WSCC(RK) 22 -9 WSCC(SW) 51 -4     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 21 17 37 33 18 47 40 46 Max 25 26 45 37 30 56 48 52 Min 17 8 29 27 3 41 29 40 Range 8 18 16 10 27 15 19 12 StD-P 2.4 4.8 4.3 3.6 7.4 4.1 5.7 3.5 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:  The 6-10 day period shows the polar vortex locked into place over the Great Lakes. It is also possible that Southern jet stream energy will undercut this polar air spinning up a winter storm in the South that could head up the East Coast. This storm is clearly in the speculative stages and should be watched. But, the cold is not speculative, it is real. I am very confident in the evolution of this at long last. It appears to be a fairly long lasting event, the question now is how long and how severe. One extreme example of how strong this potential may be down the road was a report earlier this week that record high barometric pressure readings were approached in Mongolia. The center of this Siberian high had a pressure of around 32.00" of mercury. The temperature at the time of the reading was 41 below zero. Most of the ! models on a hemispheric scale are now lining up the surface highs from the U.S. Northwest to the Pole. The Canadian model in particular shows some very frigid air in the NW territories on its Day 10 depiction. If this trend continues, it could be extremely cold early in 2002.  Note: This is my final weather commentary until January 2'nd of 2002. Best wishes for a happy holiday season.     Day 6: Wednesday, December 26, 2001  Click Herefor Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information.  Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 27 -1 ERCOT(SP) 45 -9 FRCC(SE) 68 +4 MAAC(NE) 40 +4 MAIN(CTR) 20 -3 MAPP(HP) 12 -5 NPCC(NE) 38 +6 SERC(SE) 45 +1 SPP(SP) 28 -9 WSCC(NW) 35 -5 WSCC(RK) 21 -10 WSCC(SW) 51 -4     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 19 17 34 33 16 44 38 46 Max 25 26 39 37 27 50 46 52 Min 14 9 29 28 -1 39 27 40 Range 11 17 10 9 28 11 19 12 StD-P 3.2 4.6 3.7 3.3 8.7 4.0 6.5 3.8 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Thursday, December 27, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 29 NC ERCOT(SP) 48 -8 FRCC(SE) 69 +5 MAAC(NE) 36 NC MAIN(CTR) 25 NC MAPP(HP) 13 -4 NPCC(NE) 33 +2 SERC(SE) 46 NC SPP(SP) 33 -5 WSCC(NW) 36 -2 WSCC(RK) 23 -6 WSCC(SW) 50 -4     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 19 18 29 34 19 43 38 46 Max 25 25 33 39 28 50 48 52 Min 14 10 25 28 5 37 26 37 Range 11 15 8 11 23 13 22 15 StD-P 3.6 4.2 2.8 3.4 7.4 3.9 7.0 4.9 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 8: Friday, December 28, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 17 -2 ERCOT(SP) 38 -3 FRCC(SE) 63 +3 MAAC(NE) 22 -1 MAIN(CTR) 13 -2 MAPP(HP) 9 +1 NPCC(NE) 23 +3 SERC(SE) 34 -3 SPP(SP) 19 -6 WSCC(NW) 28 -2 WSCC(RK) 4 -9 WSCC(SW) 42 -4     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 20 18 28 35 19 44 41 49 Max 25 25 32 42 29 50 49 54 Min 14 9 22 28 4 38 34 42 Range 11 16 10 14 25 12 15 12 StD-P 3.7 5.0 3.8 4.0 8.2 3.8 5.4 4.1 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Saturday, December 29, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 17 NC ERCOT(SP) 35 -9 FRCC(SE) 54 -8 MAAC(NE) 22 -2 MAIN(CTR) 16 +2 MAPP(HP) 10 +3 NPCC(NE) 25 +3 SERC(SE) 30 -5 SPP(SP) 20 -2 WSCC(NW) 30 +4 WSCC(RK) 9 +5 WSCC(SW) 46 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 20 18 28 35 21 41 39 50 Max 25 26 33 42 29 49 50 55 Min 15 9 23 28 10 35 31 45 Range 10 17 10 14 19 14 19 10 StD-P 4.1 5.7 3.7 4.3 7.0 4.6 6.6 3.6 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 10: Sunday, December 30, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 19 +1 ERCOT(SP) 37 +2 FRCC(SE) 53 -1 MAAC(NE) 25 NC MAIN(CTR) 14 -1 MAPP(HP) 8 -2 NPCC(NE) 26 -2 SERC(SE) 31 -1 SPP(SP) 22 +5 WSCC(NW) 35 +11 WSCC(RK) 13 +10 WSCC(SW) 49 +13     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 17 14 27 34 14 35 31 43 Max 21 20 33 35 21 39 34 48 Min 14 11 22 31 7 30 25 36 Range 7 9 11 4 14 9 9 12 StD-P 2.5 2.4 2.7 1.8 2.9 2.2 3.6 4.7 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.comor    www.apbenergy.comor www.truequote.com   [IMAGE]