---------------------- Forwarded by Mike A Roberts/HOU/ECT on 08/09/2000 
03:24 PM ---------------------------


Nathan Mantua <mantua@atmos.washington.edu> on 08/09/2000 03:21:37 PM
To: Mike A Roberts/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:  
Subject: Re: PDO



I'm not sure what to think, other than we really don't have a
credible way to determine what will happen with the PDO. One factor
that provides insight into the climate outlook for the next few months
and next few seasons is the expected changes with ENSO (for which
there is some demonstrated skill in forecasting). The latest
observations show trends to near-normal ENSO conditions, with
some indication that ocean temperatures will likely be a bit
warmer than normal in the tropics. If this is true, I'd expect a slight
bias toward El Nino-like climate over North America, which would
tend to go against the continuation of cold phase PDO conditions.

best wishes,

Nate Mantua


mrobert@ect.enron.com wrote:

> Hi
>
> Are you thinking we are moving into a cold phase PDO now??
>
> Thanks
>
> Mike Roberts

--
~~~~~~~~~?Nathan Mantua      EMAIL:  mantua@atmos.washington.edu?(206) 616-5347     FAX:    (206) 616-5775??Dept of Atmospheric Sciences, JISAO?University of Washington?Box 354235?Seattle WA 98195-4235??http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~mantua?~~~~~~~~~



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