Please, take a look at his results. Another model for CA PX.


Vince


---------------------- Forwarded by Vince J Kaminski/HOU/ECT on 03/13/2000 
02:14 PM ---------------------------


Joel Brown <energyrisk@earthlink.net> on 03/08/2000 11:00:42 AM
To: vkamins@enron.com
cc:  
Subject: Initial simulation results


Vince,

Thanks for taking the time to look at these initial results.  They are
based on the Cal PX volumes and unconstrained market clearing price
(UMCP).  Any commercial application would involve Cal ISO loads and
zonal prices, a relatively straight-forward extension of the work.

Currently I'm working on modifying the deterministic portion of the
power price to account for the sharp increase in oil and gas prices
since last year.  I'll let you know if I make any headway in that
effort.

I'd appreciate any feedback you might have regarding these results.

Thanks Again,
Joel Brown
EnergyRisk, llc

 - SimResults.xls