Weather Headlines
Tuesday January 15, 2002
The battle rages on between the Hudson Bay polar vortex and the Caribbean
ridge. While widespread cold is still not likely, widespread storminess is.
I don't expect any large storms during the period, but a series of weak to
moderate ones appear likely. With the jet stream in a zonal flow, it gets
difficult to bring up much in the way of Gulf moisture. Therefore,
precipitation production is more a function of the dynamics of the storm
itself. Bottom line, nothing heavy for a while. This zonal flow is also
keeping the polar and subtropical jet streams separate and distinct. There
is plenty of cold air now on this side of the pole in Canada waiting for an
excuse to come South. but, it runs into a wall in the Northern U.S. Any
buckle of the jet stream looks to be confined to the Western U.S. over the
next several days and probably longer. That trough in the West looks fairly
weak so the temperature departures from normal are slight.
The 6-10 day outlook in my view features more of the same. There is
frustration in that Day 10 models continue to show the Southward
progression of arctic cold, but without any real change in the upper level
flow patterns. While I recognize cold air by weight can flow South on its
own, it is tough to get very far South. The NWS 6-10 day outlook is warm
virtually everywhere East of the Rockies. I am inclined to trim back the
Northern part of that to allow for that slow South drift of arctic air. In
addition this pattern may grow more favorable for Great Lakes enhanced
snows. But, without a large surface High to press South out of the Yukon
and with the Caribbean ridge still exerting an influence, I cannot see any
large scale cold outbreaks developing.
For the period Tuesday January 15 through Saturday January 19, expect the
following temperature trends:
Average 4 to 6-degrees below normal: Intermountain West...
Average 1 to 3- degrees below normal: Pacific NW, California, Northern and
Central Rockies...
Average 1 to 3-degrees above normal: Desert SW, Southern Rockies, Northern
and Central Plains, Great Lakes, Northeast...
Average 4 to 6-degrees above normal: Gulf Coast, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic,
Southern Plains , Ohio and Mississippi Valleys...
Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist APB Energy / True Quote