Weather Headlines
Wednesday January 9, 2002
Bismarck, North Dakota was warmer yesterday than Miami, Florida! Overall
weather pattern still finds bitter cold arctic air lurking... in the NW
territories.
Bismarck was 38 degrees above normal yesterday at 63 while Miami was about
12 degrees below normal at 61. Its all a product of the jet stream pattern
which has taken modified Canadian air deep into the South while allowing a
downslope wind off the Rockies to really warm up the Plains. This warm air
is heading East and will attack the Ohio Valley and East Coast snow cover
with a vengeance the next couple of days. I do see a reversal of
temperatures gradually occurring in the South the rest of the week as the
deep trough weakens. The current quiet pattern will become a little more
active in the storm department later in the week. There is a benign looking
system on the West Coast today which may redevelop over the Lower
Mississippi Valley this weekend. While I would not give this a "major
storm" designation, it could provide the East some snow late in the period.
In addition, another moderate cold front in the Northern branch will end
the unseasonable warmth in the Plains this weekend, but I would hardly call
it cold. The five day numbers will still grade out well above normal. The
stagnant pattern in the West looks to continue as high pressure remains
anchored over the Great Basin. Storms coming in off the Pacific have a
small punch as they hit the coast, but rapidly weaken once inland. Overall,
temperatures there look to remain a bit above normal.
My mid range forecast continues to disagree with many who are calling for
much colder air to invade the Northern U.S. The NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day
products seem to be leading this charge with strong probabilities of below
normal temperatures over much of the country especially in the 8-14 day
time frame. I think a mistake is being made in equating a large area of
below normal probabilities with very cold air. Keep in mind that in a
probability forecast one degree below normal grades out the same as 30
degrees below normal. There are two distinct branches of the jet stream
right now, but clearly the Pacific branch is more dominant in the U.S. than
the arctic branch. Repeated efforts at reversing that have not yet
materialized and I won't forecast that occurrence without more evidence. I
am not arguing against cooler than current weather or even the return to
below normal temperatures in the North next week. I just don't see the
whole motherlode of arctic air coming down. This outlook will bust big time
if I am wrong though if one looks at the extreme cold being predicted on
the end panels (days 14-16) of the MRF in NW Canada. Those readings are as
cold as anything I have ever seen. But, they are at the end of the long
range and in NW Canada. I think it has been proven several times already
this winter it is very premature to bring that air down though if you
hammer at it often enough it may eventually happen.
For the period Wednesday January 9 through Sunday January 13, expect the
following temperature trends:
Average 1 to 3-degrees below normal: Southeast?
Average 1 to 3-above normal: Gulf Coast, Mid-Atlantic...
Average 1 to 3-degrees above normal: Northeast, Ohio Valley...
Average 4 to 9-degrees above normal: Northeast, Great Lakes, Ohio and
Mississippi Valleys, Southern Plains and Rockies, California, Intermountain
West, Desert SW, Pacific NW?
Average 10 to locally 20-degrees above normal: Central and Northern
Rockies, Central and Northern Plains...
Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist APB Energy / True Quote