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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Wednesday, Jan 30, 2002 at 07:04AM EST    Commentary last updated: Wednesday, Jan 30, 2002 at 09:52AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote     Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS  or Aquila    New! >> Printable PDF Trader Summary  (You must have Adobe Acrobat Reader  to open or print a PDF)   Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'      Today: Wednesday, January 30, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 43 +1 ERCOT(SP) 72 +1 FRCC(SE) 82 NC MAAC(NE) 59 +3 MAIN(CTR) 32 NC MAPP(HP) 20 +2 NPCC(NE) 36 +1 SERC(SE) 76 +2 SPP(SP) 37 -2 WSCC(NW) 34 NC WSCC(RK) 19 NC WSCC(SW) 46 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 32 18 42 32 16 71 63 42 Max 37 22 46 35 19 76 66 47 Min 28 14 35 28 11 68 57 37 Range 9 8 11 7 8 8 9 10 StD-P 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.8 2.8 2.9 2.0 2.5 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:   A major winter storm will pound the Plains, Lakes and New England the next couple of days. Medium range models now suggest this may NOT be winters final gasp.   I don't believe I hype storms as much as many forecasters, but the current storm now forming in the Plains deserves some attention. Some serious snow and ice accumulations are possible from Oklahoma NE to Wisconsin and eventually to Interior New England. Copious rains will fall in the warm sector. This storm should end the recent record warmth in the East with signs now that it may not return for sometime. One thing that has my attention is this current situation is colder than forecasted in the cold sector of the storm and thats the first time this winter the models have underdone the cold. Until now, its been the other way around. I am not looking for an! ything bitter under a split flow jet stream, but its late January and early February and it can still get cold. Also, the pattern while temporarily taking a break from the storms after this current event looks to reload again in the medium range. The short term temperatures still reflect the heat in front of this winter storm, so most of the East is still above normal while the West is below.    Tomorrow: Thursday, January 31, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 49 -1 ERCOT(SP) 59 -3 FRCC(SE) 82 +1 MAAC(NE) 49 +7 MAIN(CTR) 32 NC MAPP(HP) 23 +2 NPCC(NE) 26 +3 SERC(SE) 73 +1 SPP(SP) 35 -2 WSCC(NW) 38 NC WSCC(RK) 25 NC WSCC(SW) 48 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 22 36 35 18 71 54 43 Max 39 29 43 38 24 77 62 48 Min 30 18 25 31 11 68 47 39 Range 9 11 18 7 13 9 15 9 StD-P 2.1 2.1 3.4 1.5 3.5 2.6 2.8 2.7 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Friday, February  1, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 40 +1 ERCOT(SP) 51 -2 FRCC(SE) 80 +1 MAAC(NE) 58 +3 MAIN(CTR) 29 +2 MAPP(HP) 24 +3 NPCC(NE) 35 -6 SERC(SE) 62 +2 SPP(SP) 39 NC WSCC(NW) 39 NC WSCC(RK) 30 -1 WSCC(SW) 52 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 25 42 35 22 65 46 47 Max 34 31 47 40 30 74 53 52 Min 26 21 33 32 13 62 38 42 Range 8 10 14 8 17 12 15 10 StD-P 1.8 2.7 3.6 2.2 4.0 3.3 3.8 2.4 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 4: Saturday, February  2, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 33 +2 ERCOT(SP) 54 NC FRCC(SE) 74 +2 MAAC(NE) 38 +2 MAIN(CTR) 31 +1 MAPP(HP) 29 +1 NPCC(NE) 27 +1 SERC(SE) 52 NC SPP(SP) 43 -1 WSCC(NW) 40 -1 WSCC(RK) 33 -1 WSCC(SW) 54 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 29 27 37 25 55 47 50 Max 31 34 42 40 34 67 52 54 Min 23 26 20 32 15 46 41 46 Range 8 8 22 8 19 21 11 8 StD-P 1.8 1.9 5.9 2.4 4.5 5.3 3.5 2.1 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 5: Sunday, February  3, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 35 NC ERCOT(SP) 60 NC FRCC(SE) 73 +3 MAAC(NE) 37 -1 MAIN(CTR) 33 -2 MAPP(HP) 28 -1 NPCC(NE) 25 -2 SERC(SE) 54 +2 SPP(SP) 47 +1 WSCC(NW) 42 -1 WSCC(RK) 36 -1 WSCC(SW) 58 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 29 27 37 29 53 51 52 Max 32 35 32 42 36 58 56 57 Min 27 24 15 33 22 47 46 48 Range 5 11 17 9 14 11 10 9 StD-P 1.5 3.4 4.1 2.5 4.1 3.2 2.9 1.8 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:  There are several considerations in the 6-10 day period. First, we could briefly turn on the "Lake Effect" snow machine with a weak Clipper system early next week. This should not be anywhere near the magnitude of the Buffalo Christmas event, but is the first one since then. It drags a moderately cold airmass in behind it. Then, later in the period the Southern jet stream becomes active once again. Most models show another sizeable winter storm mid to late next week and at a farther South latitude than the current one. Now, I dont see this 6-10 day period as particularly cold in a relative sense though certainly it will be chillier than recent periods. Numbers may turn out a bit below normal especially over the Northern half of the USA. Some of the models just past this period suggest a more significant Canadian high woul! d be poised to drop down. The warming of the Canadian prairies does not look as likely as I have thought over the past few days, so this idea may have some merit. If the surface pressures forecast turn out to verify, the ocean indices(NAO and PNA) switch their signals and we get some snowcover the next 10 days from potential storms, then this may all come to pass. It would not be an exaggeration to suggest the coldest air mass of the season could come down the second week of February.        Day 6: Monday, February  4, 2002  Click Here  for Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information.  Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 34 -3 ERCOT(SP) 60 -1 FRCC(SE) 71 NC MAAC(NE) 40 -1 MAIN(CTR) 30 -5 MAPP(HP) 26 -3 NPCC(NE) 29 -3 SERC(SE) 54 -1 SPP(SP) 44 -4 WSCC(NW) 42 -1 WSCC(RK) 34 -3 WSCC(SW) 58 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 30 29 40 29 52 52 54 Max 31 35 33 42 35 57 56 58 Min 21 25 21 35 20 47 46 50 Range 10 10 12 7 15 10 10 8 StD-P 2.5 3.2 2.6 2.5 5.7 3.1 3.0 2.3 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Tuesday, February  5, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 32 -7 ERCOT(SP) 59 -6 FRCC(SE) 71 NC MAAC(NE) 36 -5 MAIN(CTR) 31 -4 MAPP(HP) 27 NC NPCC(NE) 27 -5 SERC(SE) 51 -4 SPP(SP) 45 -6 WSCC(NW) 43 NC WSCC(RK) 38 -2 WSCC(SW) 60 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 32 26 39 32 51 49 54 Max 32 35 32 43 39 57 56 59 Min 25 29 22 36 25 46 41 51 Range 7 6 10 7 14 11 15 8 StD-P 2.1 2.0 3.0 2.0 3.5 3.5 4.8 2.4 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 8: Wednesday, February  6, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 22 -13 ERCOT(SP) 56 -7 FRCC(SE) 57 -8 MAAC(NE) 25 -14 MAIN(CTR) 30 -2 MAPP(HP) 31 +9 NPCC(NE) 17 -19 SERC(SE) 43 -8 SPP(SP) 44 -7 WSCC(NW) 33 NC WSCC(RK) 28 +3 WSCC(SW) 51 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 33 26 38 34 51 53 54 Max 33 37 31 43 41 56 60 60 Min 27 30 19 33 26 45 46 51 Range 6 7 12 10 15 11 14 9 StD-P 1.6 2.0 4.2 3.4 4.9 3.8 3.2 3.6 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Thursday, February  7, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 34 +4 ERCOT(SP) 62 +5 FRCC(SE) 62 -9 MAAC(NE) 31 -10 MAIN(CTR) 34 +10 MAPP(HP) 27 +16 NPCC(NE) 17 -7 SERC(SE) 49 -7 SPP(SP) 42 +7 WSCC(NW) 33 -1 WSCC(RK) 21 -1 WSCC(SW) 47 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 32 31 29 37 30 52 55 51 Max 34 38 34 43 41 57 60 60 Min 30 26 21 33 21 48 48 45 Range 4 12 13 10 20 9 12 15 StD-P 1.0 4.1 4.2 3.2 6.8 2.6 4.3 4.5 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 10: Friday, February  8, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 35 +16 ERCOT(SP) 59 +15 FRCC(SE) 68 -1 MAAC(NE) 40 +7 MAIN(CTR) 28 +18 MAPP(HP) 24 +3 NPCC(NE) 32 +20 SERC(SE) 55 +11 SPP(SP) 36 NC WSCC(NW) 39 +7 WSCC(RK) 25 -1 WSCC(SW) 50 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 27 27 31 33 21 49 47 43 Max 29 32 34 38 27 57 54 53 Min 22 19 26 28 13 39 34 35 Range 7 13 8 10 14 18 20 18 StD-P 3.1 3.6 2.3 4.0 3.3 5.5 5.9 7.4 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]