Weather Headlines
Friday January 11, 2002
Big Storm may form off the New England coast this weekend. Energy from the
Pacific criss crosses the country next week. Arctic air gets closer but
remains North of the border.
The New England storm will be a near miss it appears this weekend as it
bombs out to sea. Perhaps Eastern Mass. gets a brush by but otherwise its a
light rain/snow wind event. The next system of note comes in to the NW this
weekend and develops low pressure in the Central Plains by Tuesday. North
of the track even though temperatures remain above normal, they won't be of
the record warmth this week. It will be cold enough to lay down some snow
North of 35 degrees Latitude. The SE then starts to warm up relative to
normal as high pressure slips off the coast. While it may be a seasonably
active period, five day temperature numbers will likely average above
normal nationwide.
I continue to see forecasts in the 6-10 day period calling for cold
weather. The NWS outlook is below normal almost nationwide. But, notice
they go near normal in the Northern Plains. That is significant as it
refers to source region of air masses. If the North is above normal short
term and near normal mid term then where is the alleged arctic air coming
from? What may actually happen is a re-development of the broad trough
occurs over the Eastern half of the country next week. That is straight out
of the MRF playbook. The operational runs of the Canadian and European do
not concur. I certainly accept no ridge in the Eastern U.S. but the bottom
line in my view is this still is not a very cold pattern. The NWS had NO
ONE , not one location above normal in their 6-10 day period. I think most
of the South and East will run above normal during the period, just not
excessively so. The North and West will run close to normal. Interestingly
enough, the European day 10 looks to be the coldest of the medium range
models. Since it seems to be my favorite this winter, there could be some
credibility to some arctic air the last 10 days of the month. But, even its
appearance makes it difficult in my view for any real cold to get very far
South.
For the period Friday January 11 through Tuesday January 15, expect the
following temperature trends:
Average 1 to 3-above normal: Southeast, Pacific NW, California...
Average 4 to 6-degrees above normal: Gulf Coast, Mid-Atlantic, Southern
Plains and Rockies, Desert SW, Intermountain West...
Average 7 to 9-degrees above normal: Northeast, Great Lakes, Ohio and
Mississippi Valleys?
Average 10 to 15-degrees above normal: Central and Northern Rockies,
Central and Northern Plains...
Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist APB Energy / True Quote