Energy Market Report
Friday, December 21, 2001

*See attached pdf file.
__________________________________________________________
Western Pre-Scheduled Firm Electricity Prices($/MWh)
December 21, 2001 for December 25, 2001

Peak(Heavy)
                   Low     Change**     High    Change**
NW/N. Rockies*    17.00      NA        18.00      NA
Mid-Columbia*     17.00      NA        18.00      NA
COB*              15.50      NA        16.25      NA
N. California*    15.00      NA        18.50      NA
Midway/Sylmar*      NA       NA          NA       NA
S. California*    14.00      NA        17.00      NA
Mead*             14.25      NA        15.00      NA
Palo Verde*       13.25      NA        14.75      NA
Inland SW*        13.25      NA        15.00      NA
4-Corners*        13.50      NA        14.50      NA
Central Rockies*  13.00      NA        14.00      NA
__________________________________________________________
Off-Peak(Light)
                   Low     Change**     High    Change**
NW/N. Rockies*    17.00      NA        18.00      NA
Mid-Columbia*     17.00      NA        18.00      NA
COB*              15.50      NA        16.25      NA
N. California*    15.00      NA        18.50      NA
Midway/Sylmar*      NA       NA          NA       NA
S. California*    14.00      NA        17.00      NA
Mead*             14.25      NA        15.00      NA
Palo Verde*       13.25      NA        14.75      NA
Inland SW*        13.25      NA        15.00      NA
4-Corners*        13.50      NA        14.50      NA
Central Rockies*  13.00      NA        14.00      NA

*Denotes trading of flat, 24-hour products.
**"NA" changes are not applicable because prices for on and off peak goods
are not comparable to flat products.
__________________________________________________________
Western Pre-Scheduled Firm Electricity Prices($/MWh)
December 21, 2001 for December 26, 2001

Peak(Heavy)
                   Low     Change**     High    Change**
NW/N. Rockies     19.25      NA        21.00      NA
Mid-Columbia      19.25      NA        21.00      NA
COB               21.00      NA        23.00      NA
N. California     24.00      NA        23.50      NA
Midway/Sylmar       NA       NA          NA       NA
S. California     22.00      NA        25.25      NA
Mead              21.00      NA        23.50      NA
Palo Verde        21.50      NA        23.75      NA
Inland SW         21.00      NA        23.75      NA
4-Corners         21.50      NA        23.00      NA
Central Rockies   19.50      NA        21.25      NA
__________________________________________________________
Off-Peak(Light)
                   Low     Change**     High    Change**
NW/N. Rockies     17.00      NA        18.00      NA
Mid-Columbia      17.00      NA        18.00      NA
COB               15.50      NA        16.25      NA
N. California     15.00      NA        18.50      NA
Midway/Sylmar       NA       NA          NA       NA
S. California     14.00      NA        17.00      NA
Mead              14.25      NA        15.00      NA
Palo Verde        13.25      NA        14.75      NA
Inland SW         13.25      NA        15.00      NA
4-Corners         13.50      NA        14.50      NA
Central Rockies   13.00      NA        14.00      NA

**"NA" changes are not applicable because prices for on and off peak goods
are not comparable to flat products.
__________________________________________________________
There will be no Energy Market Report Published on Monday, December 24 or
Tuesday, December 25, 2001 due to the Christmas Holiday.  The EMR will begin
publishing again on Wednesday, December 26, 2001.
__________________________________________________________
Four Days Before Christmas

'Twas 4 days before Christmas, and all thru the West
Few traders were working, 10 percent at best;
Marketers had tallied their books up with care,
In hopes that year-end bonuses soon would be there.

Enron was nestled down deep in the red,
Battling lawsuits from many, and claims by the Fed;
With Osama on the run, and Jeff Skilling in Brazil,
There are not many wishes left to fulfill.

Stockings were hung by the boilers with care,
But lumps of coal showed that Enron passed there;
All rejoice and thanks to Ken Lay,
Even Santa frets 'bout his 401k.

With hydro abundant, and gas storage so high,
It looked as though the West would not bat an eye;
The shorts in the market sang a chorus of cheer,
"Prices are a shadow of what they were last year."

Another calendar gone by, and what a doozy it was,
So close up your shops, catch a well-deserved buzz;
A sincere wish for all, we hope you made a buck,
Happy Holidays to all, and to all Good Luck!


But seriously folks?Western peak power prices for the Christmas
Day/Wednesday package were mostly flat to levels seen for the Sunday/Monday
combo.  "It's supposed to get a little bit colder out there over the long
weekend, but the combination of weak holiday demand and abundant hydro
generation has given traders little cause for concern," explained one
marketer.  Spot gas prices on most Western pipelines were flat to slightly
higher than levels seen on the previous day, while NYMEX Henry Hub futures
contracts rose sharply on some colder forecasts for the eastern U.S. and a
flurry of short covering ahead of the long weekend.  January Hub gas rose an
impressive 20.9 cents to close at 2.895$/mmBtu, while February gained 18.1
cents to settle at 2.889$/mmBtu.  With end-of-the-year loads firmly in
place, most players expected little in the way of price movement over the
next week.

Electricity prices in the Northwest were virtually unchanged for the
Tuesday/Wednesday package, compliments of steady holiday loads and abundant
regional hydropower.  Peak power at the Mid-Columbia changed hands from
19.25 to 21$/MWh, with the bulk of trades taking place between 19.5 and
20.5$/MWh.  Flow forecasts for Chief Joseph were off slightly from the
previous day, likely in anticipation of waning holiday demand.  Flows were
predicted to be 75 kcfs Saturday, 55 kcfs Sunday, 70 kcfs Christmas Eve, 50
kcfs Christmas Day, and 85 kcfs Wednesday through Friday.  The latest
six-to-ten from the NWS was calling for mostly normal temperatures through
the end of the month.

Peak power prices in California for Wednesday delivery ended slightly weaker
than the Sunday-Monday package.  In the news, a report by the Bureau of
State Audits, released Thursday, criticized the California Department of
Water Resources for a lack of analysis of power demand in the state before
it signed 57 contracts for long-term power with energy companies.  The
urgency generated by pressure from the Davis administration to sign
long-term agreements precluded the planning necessary for projects of such
large-scale, according to the report, and resulted in the omission of
important details which would have better shielded California in the event
of failure by the supplier to deliver the power, or in times of excess
demand.  The contracts were negotiated in a matter of weeks rather than the
usual months, and tied Californians into paying more than double the current
spot prices for electricity for the next decade.  Oscar Hidalgo, spokesman
for the team of buyers at the DWR, defended the DWR's performance, saying
"The lights are on; the costs are way down; stability is back in the market.
The long-term contracts are a big part of it."  However, the Bureau's report
noted that the state likely bought too much electricity, and as a result
will have to sell much of its power during times of low demand at a loss on
the spot market.  This alone could cost consumers as much as $4 billion over
the next decade.  At the same time, the contracts do not include many
commitments from "peaker" (intermittent load-contingent) plants, which would
make the state once again vulnerable to price spikes at times of peak
demand.  In unit news, gas-fired Contra Costa #7 (337 MW) slipped back onto
the grid after a one-day maintenance outage.  Encina #5 (332 MW) also began
ramping up on Friday, and was at 250 MW by 11:15 PST.  Temperatures were
slightly below normal but above freezing, and expected to remain that way
through Christmas.  The latest six-to-ten called for some cooling from
December 27 to 31.

Peak prices in the Southwest were little changed for the Tuesday/Wednesday
package, while light load goods fell modestly, by less than 1$/MWh in most
cases.  "We anticipate little change in prices or demand through January 1,"
said one Southwest utility trader.  In unit news, Mohave #1 (790 MW)
remained off-line Friday with no ETR available.  The unit was reportedly
suffering from exciter problems, but details were vague.  Weather forecasts
called for temperatures to dip to slightly below normal over the weekend in
Phoenix, while the latest six-to-ten from the NWS was predicting
below-normal temperatures for the entire desert region for the last week in
December.



Patrick O'Neill and David Ramberg
_________________________________________________________

Western Generating Unit Outages

Current                            Begins          Ends          Reason
CAISO units <250/5817 total          NA             NA
planned/unplanned*
Alamitos #3/320/gas               04-Dec-01         ?            planned
Big Creek Project/1020/hydro      09-Dec-01         ?         @714MW,
planned*
El Segundo #3/337/gas             02-Oct-01         ?            unplanned
Grand Coulee #19/600/hydro        10-Dec-01       March          repairs
Helms PGP #2/407/hydro            01-Oct-01         ?            planned
Hunter #2/472/coal                11-Dec-01     25-Dec-01        unknown
Hyatt/Thermalito/933/hydro        02-Oct-01         ?      @607 MW,
unplanned
Mohave #1/790/coal                15-Dec-01         ?            tube leak*
Moss Landing #6/739/gas           19-Dec-01         ?            unplanned
Ormond Beach #2/750/gas           05-Oct-01         ?      @350 MW,
unplanned
Pittsburg #6/317/gas              22-Nov-01         ?            planned
Sutter Plants/546/gas             04-Dec-01         ?            planned

For unit owners refer to pdf version.
*Indicates a change from previous EMR.
______________________________________________________________________

Eastern Markets Pre-Scheduled Firm Power Prices ($/MWh)

December 21, 2001 for December 26, 2001

Peak (Heavy) in $/MWh
                 Low     Change   High      Change
Into Cinergy    22.00     1.25    25.00      3.25
Western PJM     24.50     0.25    25.25      0.75
Into Entergy    22.00     0.00    24.00      0.75
Into TVA        22.00     1.00    22.50      0.50
___________________________________________________________
Faced with apathetic holiday demand, prices across the Eastern Interconnect
plummeted for Monday delivery.  "Without schools, businesses, or even myself
in operation on Monday, almost nothing moved today," admitted one trader of
his intention to avoid the energy market on Christmas Eve.  Most traders
were putting together their Wednesday packages on Friday, in order to extend
their weekends through the Christmas holiday.  "Wednesday prices showed
strength over Friday packages, presumably on the uncertainty of trading so
far out and forecasts calling for cooler weather over the next week," opined
one PJM player.  NYMEX Henry Hub forward contracts showed renewed vigor on
colder late-month forecasts and heavy short covering.  The January contract
gained 20.9 cents to close at 2.895$/mmBtu, while the February contract rose
18.1 cents to end the day at 2.889$/mmBtu.

Not even the Mid-Atlantic bucked the trend on Friday.  Marketers were
restless and eager to either cover their meager loads or divest themselves
of their excess energy and then head home for the holidays.  There was not a
lot of volatility in the LMPs, which briefly spiked to 56.4$/MWh just after
07:00 EST, but swiftly fell into the near-average groove of 21.61$/MWh
through 15:00 EST.  Monday prices hovered in a narrow range between 21 and
21.5$/MWh, while Wednesday pieces went at a premium even to Friday goods,
trading from 24.5 to 25.25$/MWh.  Nary an outage was reported in all of PJM,
which some marketers cited as yet another reason for the lackadaisical
nature of Friday's energy market.  Temperatures were predicted by Weather
Services Corp. to warm into above-normal territory by Christmas Day, while
the latest six-to-ten called for temperatures from near to below-normal
between December 27 and 31.

Prices across the Midwest slid by 4 to 6$/MWh for Monday delivery during
Friday's trading.  Most marketers reported making only one or two trades, as
above-normal temperatures precluded healthy heating demand and the almost
universal closures of businesses and schools "took the spirit out of the
market," as one trader put it.  Monday Into Cinergy goods changed hands
between 14 and 18$/MWh, while Wednesday pieces sold for anywhere from 22 to
25$/MWh, a premium to prices seen for Friday.  "There's some uncertainty
involved with trading five days out, and besides, it's supposed to get
colder," remarked one ECAR player.  No new unit outages were reported in
ECAR, though Palisades #1 (789 MW) remained in cold shutdown, as it has been
since the end of June 2001.  Temperatures lingered between the mid 20s and
the high 30s on Friday, but were expected to warm into the high 40s by the
end of the weekend, further shaving off heating demand for Monday.  The
latest six-to-ten predicted temperatures to be near to below normal from
December 27 to 31.

SERC traders were scrambling to move what they could before everyone else
stampeded from their offices for the Christmas holiday, and few had any
trades to report.  "With the Enron debacle, I think most of us are sitting
out the action until the end of the year," remarked one TVA player.  Monday
Into TVA pieces took a nosedive on Friday, trading between 15.75 and
17.5$/MWh - and the high end was almost an anomaly, according to the price
data of many marketers.  Into Entergy likewise tanked, moving for anywhere
from 17 to 21$/MWh.  Wednesday showed more strength, with Into TVA trading
at a slight premium to Friday's goods, from 22 to 22.5$/MWh, and Into
Entergy pieces trading from 22 to 24$/MWh.  Temperatures were not expected
to ratchet up heating demand over the next five days, for despite
below-normal temperatures across much of the region, daytime highs were
predicted to reach the upper 50s.  The latest six-to-ten called for
temperatures to fall to below normal levels from December 27 to 31.
___________________________________________________________
California ISO Congestion Index in $/MWh

                         Path                 Peak   Off-peak
for 22-Dec-01         NW1 to NP15             0.00     0.00
                      NW3 to SP15             0.00     0.00
                      AZ3 to SP15             0.00     0.00
                      LC1 to SP15             0.00     0.00
                      SP15 to NP15            0.00     0.00



OTC Forward Peak Electricity Contracts in $/MWh

                    Mid-C              PV              SP-15
                Bid      Ask      Bid      Ask      Bid      Ask
BOM            20.00    22.50    24.00    25.50    25.50    27.50
January        25.00    26.50    28.00    29.00    29.00    30.00
February       22.00    23.50    25.50    26.50    27.00    28.00
March          18.50    20.00    25.50    26.50    26.50    27.50
Q1 '02         21.25    22.75    26.50    27.50    28.50    29.50
Q2 '02         16.50    18.00    28.50    29.50    28.75    29.75
Q3 '02         33.00    35.50    45.00    46.00    42.50    43.50
Q4 '02         28.00    29.50    29.50    30.50    31.50    32.50
Cal '03        30.50    32.00    34.00    35.00    35.00    36.00

Represents the most recent bid/ask spread obtainable
by the Energy Market Report.



Alberta Power Pool Index (C$/MWh)

                    Peak(14)   Peak(16)   Off-Peak    Flat     Change
for  20-Dec-01       90.39      85.08      34.09      69.71    26.33



BPA's Offer for 12/27/01 through 12/29/01.

Hours        Amount          NW delivered        COB/NOB delivered

7-22         100MW           Market Price*          Market Price*

*Market price will be determined at time of request.



NYMEX Henry Hub Gas Futures in $/mmBtu

                 Close        Change
        Jan      2.895         0.209
        Feb      2.889         0.181



Natural Gas Spot Prices in $/mmBtu

                  Low          High
Sumas             2.45         2.50
So. Cal Border    2.55         2.60
San Juan          2.40         2.45
__________________________________________________________

Economic Insight, Inc. - 3004 SW First, Portland, Oregon 97201,
Telephone (503) 222-2425, Internet e-mail emr@econ.com -
Copyright, Economic Insight, Inc. 2001.