i think jv strip prices to where we price out enough demand to get to 2.8.  
whther that price level is 425 or 725 is arguable.  i think it's close to 
here.  but when we get to november and we have 2.8 and don;'t repeat the 
weather of this past winter and we have 2.5 bcf more supply and people 
realize that we have 2.3 bcf to withdraw before there are any 
problems...bombs away.  


From: Jennifer Fraser/ENRON@enronXgate on 03/07/2001 01:00 AM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:  
Subject: RE: 

Why do you think nov mar is worth $3.75? 
Also whats your schedule looking like next week----care to meet for a 
beverage?

Jen Fraser
Enron Global Markets Fundamentals
713-853-4759

 -----Original Message-----
From:  Arnold, John  
Sent: Tuesday, March 06, 2001 5:03 PM
To: Fraser, Jennifer
Subject: Re:

  What it's trading  what I think it's really worth 
apr oct   540    500 
nov mar 547    375
cal 2  491    400
cal 3   460    325

Obviously most bearish the further out you go.  However, the game right now 
is not sell and hold...although it will be soon.  The game is where will it 
be tomorrow and next week and next month.  The market is structurally short 
term gas thanks to our friends from california.  where ca is buying power, 
williams and calpine and dynegy dont care of the gas costs 450 or 475 or 500 
or 525.  irrelevant.  so term is not going down in the short term unless the 
front comes into the 400's and scares some producers to start hedging or we 
or el paso can find fixed price lng to the tune of 250,000 a day for 10 years.



From: Jennifer Fraser/ENRON@enronXgate on 03/06/2001 10:37 AM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:  
Subject: 

what are your thoughts on

ap-oct
nov-mar
02
03


price levels and outlooks
 thanks
Jen Fraser
713-853-4759