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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Tuesday, Jan 29, 2002 at 07:06AM EST    Commentary last updated: Tuesday, Jan 29, 2002 at 09:38AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote     Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS  or Aquila    New! >> Printable PDF Trader Summary  (You must have Adobe Acrobat Reader  to open or print a PDF)   Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'      Today: Tuesday, January 29, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 52 -1 ERCOT(SP) 77 +1 FRCC(SE) 81 NC MAAC(NE) 63 +4 MAIN(CTR) 37 -6 MAPP(HP) 18 -3 NPCC(NE) 48 +4 SERC(SE) 74 +1 SPP(SP) 54 -7 WSCC(NW) 31 NC WSCC(RK) 26 +2 WSCC(SW) 47 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 36 20 47 28 24 69 69 42 Max 40 29 53 31 33 75 73 47 Min 29 15 42 25 18 63 65 38 Range 11 14 11 6 15 12 8 9 StD-P 2.2 3.4 2.9 2.2 4.8 3.6 2.0 3.0 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:   A very healthy spring/winter storm to deal with in the short term. This storm will bring about a pattern change, though still nothing severe in terms of cold.  A mixed bag of precipitation has developed today over the Central Plains. A healthy combination of shallow cold air in the North and record warmth in the South will help spin up a sizeable storm in the Southern Plains later today that will turn to the NE. There are a variety of winter weather watches out from Kansas, Missouri , Nebraska, Iowa, and Illinois. More can be expected through the Great Lakes and New England later in the week. There will be snow with this, but also some potential for significant freezing rain as well. The storm track is expected to run from NW Texas to just South of Chicago then Western New York. To the South, this is a rain ! event with some thunderstorms as well. This storm will serve to collapse the strong ridge that has been in place over the Eastern U.S. I certainly expect a drop from the record highs of recent days, but nothing in the earth shattering cold category. In fact, the raw numbers from the MRF have trended warmer the last few runs. Since we dont have a thick snow cover to tap from, I believe the period of cold setting up will not be as harsh as what we saw in late December. As all of this is going on, some of the chill that has invaded the West will be lifting out. I don't see a big run to above normal with a surface high still sitting over the plateau region, but it should not be as cold as the last couple of days.    Tomorrow: Wednesday, January 30, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 43 -1 ERCOT(SP) 71 +4 FRCC(SE) 81 NC MAAC(NE) 56 -3 MAIN(CTR) 33 +3 MAPP(HP) 18 +2 NPCC(NE) 35 -7 SERC(SE) 74 +1 SPP(SP) 39 NC WSCC(NW) 34 -1 WSCC(RK) 19 +1 WSCC(SW) 47 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 18 43 31 17 71 64 42 Max 36 21 53 34 29 75 73 47 Min 28 14 33 28 11 68 59 37 Range 8 7 20 6 18 7 14 10 StD-P 2.2 2.3 3.4 1.4 4.3 2.8 2.9 3.2 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Thursday, January 31, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 51 +4 ERCOT(SP) 61 +6 FRCC(SE) 81 +1 MAAC(NE) 46 -5 MAIN(CTR) 33 +5 MAPP(HP) 20 +3 NPCC(NE) 26 -2 SERC(SE) 71 +4 SPP(SP) 37 +3 WSCC(NW) 39 NC WSCC(RK) 24 -1 WSCC(SW) 50 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 20 37 35 18 70 56 44 Max 37 23 45 39 24 75 64 49 Min 31 17 31 32 12 66 52 38 Range 6 6 14 7 12 9 12 11 StD-P 1.6 2.2 4.1 1.9 3.4 2.6 2.5 3.1 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 4: Friday, February  1, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 39 +5 ERCOT(SP) 53 NC FRCC(SE) 79 +3 MAAC(NE) 55 +7 MAIN(CTR) 27 +3 MAPP(HP) 21 +3 NPCC(NE) 41 +2 SERC(SE) 60 +3 SPP(SP) 39 -1 WSCC(NW) 40 -1 WSCC(RK) 31 -1 WSCC(SW) 52 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 24 44 36 23 63 46 47 Max 35 29 50 40 30 73 55 52 Min 24 20 34 32 15 60 38 43 Range 11 9 16 8 15 13 17 9 StD-P 3.1 2.9 4.6 1.8 3.9 4.1 4.8 2.4 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 5: Saturday, February  2, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 32 +2 ERCOT(SP) 54 +1 FRCC(SE) 72 +1 MAAC(NE) 36 -2 MAIN(CTR) 30 +2 MAPP(HP) 28 +3 NPCC(NE) 26 -2 SERC(SE) 52 +1 SPP(SP) 45 +1 WSCC(NW) 42 +1 WSCC(RK) 34 NC WSCC(SW) 55 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 26 29 28 38 27 52 48 50 Max 30 34 48 42 34 66 52 55 Min 19 27 20 33 18 43 41 46 Range 11 7 28 9 16 23 11 9 StD-P 2.1 2.6 7.2 1.7 4.3 6.1 4.0 2.1 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:  While the talk in recent outlooks for the 6-10 day period has centered on cold, it is interesting to note the new 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from the NWS still have a warm bias to them. There is not a big snow cover on the ground, a split flow in the jet stream is expected and the polar vortex in Canada continues a slow retreat. With all of that as a backdrop, the slight positive departures look reasonable to me. We may however crank out a "Clipper Type" storm next week in the Great Lakes and New England. These can sometimes be more prodigious snow makers than the big "Plains type" counterpart we are currently seeing. This is especially true if the air flows over the Lakes at the right angle, something I won't even try to predict this far out. Other than this system, I don't see much action in the 6-10 day period. Howeve! r, there is some potential for another storm to emerge out of the SW just after this.    Day 6: Sunday, February  3, 2002  Click Here  for Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information.  Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 35 +3 ERCOT(SP) 59 +2 FRCC(SE) 71 -1 MAAC(NE) 38 +2 MAIN(CTR) 35 +4 MAPP(HP) 30 +2 NPCC(NE) 27 +1 SERC(SE) 52 -1 SPP(SP) 46 -1 WSCC(NW) 43 +1 WSCC(RK) 37 -1 WSCC(SW) 57 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 29 31 25 38 30 51 51 52 Max 32 35 30 43 37 56 56 57 Min 26 27 16 35 24 45 45 48 Range 6 8 14 8 13 11 11 9 StD-P 2.0 2.3 4.0 2.2 4.2 3.9 3.8 2.2 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Monday, February  4, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 37 +2 ERCOT(SP) 62 +1 FRCC(SE) 70 +1 MAAC(NE) 41 +3 MAIN(CTR) 35 +3 MAPP(HP) 29 -1 NPCC(NE) 32 +2 SERC(SE) 55 +2 SPP(SP) 48 NC WSCC(NW) 42 +1 WSCC(RK) 38 -1 WSCC(SW) 58 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 32 29 40 31 51 53 54 Max 33 35 35 43 39 58 59 58 Min 28 28 23 37 23 46 48 51 Range 5 7 12 6 16 12 11 7 StD-P 1.3 2.0 2.7 1.8 5.0 3.3 3.1 2.0 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 8: Tuesday, February  5, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 36 +2 ERCOT(SP) 57 +3 FRCC(SE) 63 -1 MAAC(NE) 36 -3 MAIN(CTR) 34 +6 MAPP(HP) 32 +9 NPCC(NE) 33 NC SERC(SE) 47 -2 SPP(SP) 44 +5 WSCC(NW) 38 +1 WSCC(RK) 34 +3 WSCC(SW) 52 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 32 34 30 40 35 52 54 55 Max 34 36 36 44 43 58 62 60 Min 28 30 24 37 27 49 48 52 Range 6 6 12 7 16 9 14 8 StD-P 1.5 2.1 3.0 2.2 3.8 3.2 3.4 2.8 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Wednesday, February  6, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 35 +13 ERCOT(SP) 63 +8 FRCC(SE) 65 +5 MAAC(NE) 39 +9 MAIN(CTR) 31 +14 MAPP(HP) 22 NC NPCC(NE) 36 +2 SERC(SE) 51 +9 SPP(SP) 51 +4 WSCC(NW) 34 -4 WSCC(RK) 24 -6 WSCC(SW) 51 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 34 34 37 33 53 56 52 Max 35 37 37 43 43 58 61 60 Min 29 31 29 33 25 49 49 48 Range 6 6 8 10 18 9 12 12 StD-P 1.4 2.2 1.8 3.1 6.4 2.7 4.1 3.6 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 10: Thursday, February  7, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 31 +7 ERCOT(SP) 57 +2 FRCC(SE) 71 +6 MAAC(NE) 41 +14 MAIN(CTR) 24 +2 MAPP(HP) 10 -15 NPCC(NE) 24 +7 SERC(SE) 56 +12 SPP(SP) 35 -8 WSCC(NW) 34 -3 WSCC(RK) 22 -6 WSCC(SW) 49 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 25 24 29 32 21 50 47 44 Max 29 28 32 34 26 58 52 49 Min 21 22 28 27 14 40 38 37 Range 8 6 4 7 12 18 14 12 StD-P 2.9 2.1 0.8 2.0 2.7 6.4 4.7 5.0 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]