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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Tuesday, Nov 20, 2001 at 10:35AM EST    Commentary last updated: Tuesday, Nov 20, 2001 at 09:42AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy /  True Quote     Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS  or Aquila    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'     Today: Tuesday, November 20, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 42 +3 ERCOT(SP) 58 -1 FRCC(SE) 78 NC MAAC(NE) 47 +1 MAIN(CTR) 45 +3 MAPP(HP) 50 +2 NPCC(NE) 45 NC SERC(SE) 59 +1 SPP(SP) 57 NC WSCC(NW) 52 +2 WSCC(RK) 56 -1 WSCC(SW) 66 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 48 46 47 44 60 52 62 Max 45 57 49 52 56 64 62 68 Min 35 42 42 44 33 57 44 57 Range 10 15 7 8 23 7 18 11 StD-P 3.1 5.2 1.2 2.1 7.0 2.2 3.9 2.9 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:  Models converging on an increasingly stormy pattern. The question still to be answered is when the arctic air arrives.  The current cool down in the East is very transitional with warmer air to return by the end of the week. The pattern has clearly changed as the jet stream has been suppressed Southward. In the short (and medium) terms, things should turn stormier, but not neccessarily colder. In fact, latest charts indicate a healthy ridge to build late this period over the SE U.S. in response to a trough developing over the Rockies. This opens the Gulf of Mexico up in a moisture sense, but any winter snows look to be confined to the extreme Northern tier of states. Much needed rains may fall from the Plains to the East Coast by the weekend in areas that have been parched this Fall. In terms of temperatu! res, 5 day averages will not depart significantly from normal the rest of the week though the trend late in the period will be for a warmer East and a cooler West.  Tomorrow: Wednesday, November 21, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 47 +1 ERCOT(SP) 63 -2 FRCC(SE) 74 +3 MAAC(NE) 45 +1 MAIN(CTR) 51 -1 MAPP(HP) 52 -1 NPCC(NE) 40 NC SERC(SE) 58 +2 SPP(SP) 59 -3 WSCC(NW) 49 -1 WSCC(RK) 49 -2 WSCC(SW) 64 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 44 47 38 45 43 55 57 60 Max 53 57 43 51 52 62 67 67 Min 37 39 32 41 35 47 49 55 Range 16 18 11 10 17 15 18 12 StD-P 4.7 4.5 2.8 2.2 4.0 4.1 4.0 2.6 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Thursday, November 22, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 51 +2 ERCOT(SP) 69 +1 FRCC(SE) 77 +4 MAAC(NE) 50 NC MAIN(CTR) 49 NC MAPP(HP) 46 NC NPCC(NE) 44 +2 SERC(SE) 62 NC SPP(SP) 53 -6 WSCC(NW) 47 -2 WSCC(RK) 43 -5 WSCC(SW) 62 -3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 44 44 41 44 38 59 61 58 Max 49 47 47 48 45 66 65 61 Min 40 38 34 41 30 56 56 54 Range 9 9 13 7 15 10 9 7 StD-P 2.9 3.0 3.3 1.8 4.9 3.0 2.8 2.7 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 4: Friday, November 23, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 51 NC ERCOT(SP) 70 -3 FRCC(SE) 79 +3 MAAC(NE) 52 -1 MAIN(CTR) 48 -1 MAPP(HP) 45 NC NPCC(NE) 45 -2 SERC(SE) 63 -1 SPP(SP) 57 -2 WSCC(NW) 45 -1 WSCC(RK) 42 -1 WSCC(SW) 60 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 46 42 44 40 34 64 62 55 Max 51 47 47 45 43 66 67 60 Min 43 38 40 38 29 61 54 52 Range 8 9 7 7 14 5 13 8 StD-P 2.6 2.7 2.2 1.3 2.8 1.4 4.8 2.1 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 5: Saturday, November 24, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 51 -1 ERCOT(SP) 72 NC FRCC(SE) 80 +2 MAAC(NE) 56 +3 MAIN(CTR) 50 -2 MAPP(HP) 43 NC NPCC(NE) 45 -2 SERC(SE) 67 NC SPP(SP) 56 -3 WSCC(NW) 43 -1 WSCC(RK) 39 NC WSCC(SW) 56 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 46 38 50 37 31 66 63 51 Max 48 43 54 43 40 69 68 56 Min 43 34 47 35 25 63 57 47 Range 5 9 7 8 15 6 11 9 StD-P 1.8 2.6 1.9 1.4 3.5 2.1 4.2 2.7 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:   I have been consistently forecasting colder air (along with most others) in the 6-10 day period for a couple of weeks now. It has been slow in developing and the cool down now in the East would hardly be considered significant unless it is compared to the record warmth of the last couple of weeks. The pattern I foresee going into early December is colder relative to normal in the West and warmer in the East. Specifically a storm track from the SW into the Plains and NE will set up allowing for generous rain (with snow North) to develop. Arctic air is moving to this side of the pole and pooling in NW Canada. Now, a mechanism to drive it SE is needed. One of the tools used that I occasionally refer to is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).  Most winter forecasts have predicted this as largely negative this se! ason which is a robust signal for cold air in the East. It has been negative the last two weeks though in fairness its reliability as a signal gets much higher in December for cold. I find it interesting to note the signal is expected to go weakly positive next week. Bottom line for the period is I see a continuation of a cold bias with the Western trough and a warm bias in the vicinity of the Eastern ridge. We may also see a significant storm move through the country during the period, but again I look for snow to be confined to the North.    Day 6: Sunday, November 25, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 52 +1 ERCOT(SP) 73 +2 FRCC(SE) 80 +2 MAAC(NE) 56 +1 MAIN(CTR) 50 +3 MAPP(HP) 40 +2 NPCC(NE) 48 +1 SERC(SE) 67 NC SPP(SP) 56 NC WSCC(NW) 42 -2 WSCC(RK) 34 NC WSCC(SW) 56 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 44 35 51 36 29 66 66 48 Max 47 40 55 42 37 69 71 56 Min 42 30 48 34 21 63 64 45 Range 5 10 7 8 16 6 7 11 StD-P 1.0 3.1 2.3 2.0 5.2 2.1 2.6 2.8 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Monday, November 26, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 52 +4 ERCOT(SP) 71 +6 FRCC(SE) 79 +1 MAAC(NE) 54 +2 MAIN(CTR) 48 +3 MAPP(HP) 36 NC NPCC(NE) 49 +3 SERC(SE) 68 +4 SPP(SP) 55 +1 WSCC(NW) 43 NC WSCC(RK) 32 -3 WSCC(SW) 55 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 46 35 47 35 24 67 65 46 Max 50 42 52 43 34 70 71 55 Min 44 30 45 31 16 64 61 42 Range 6 12 7 12 18 6 10 13 StD-P 1.6 4.0 2.1 2.5 5.3 1.6 3.2 3.9 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 8: Tuesday, November 27, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 50 -5 ERCOT(SP) 52 -4 FRCC(SE) 72 NC MAAC(NE) 59 +9 MAIN(CTR) 36 -14 MAPP(HP) 27 -4 NPCC(NE) 53 +13 SERC(SE) 63 -2 SPP(SP) 36 -6 WSCC(NW) 30 -1 WSCC(RK) 16 +5 WSCC(SW) 45 +3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 44 28 48 34 21 65 56 47 Max 57 39 55 42 33 68 70 56 Min 39 22 42 30 17 63 48 44 Range 18 17 13 12 16 5 22 12 StD-P 5.9 4.8 3.9 2.8 4.9 1.4 6.8 3.4 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Wednesday, November 28, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 33 -12 ERCOT(SP) 52 -2 FRCC(SE) 71 -2 MAAC(NE) 40 -19 MAIN(CTR) 29 -3 MAPP(HP) 19 +2 NPCC(NE) 41 -10 SERC(SE) 51 -14 SPP(SP) 37 +5 WSCC(NW) 27 -5 WSCC(RK) 19 +9 WSCC(SW) 43 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 36 21 45 31 21 61 51 45 Max 52 25 51 35 24 68 62 49 Min 28 16 40 27 18 55 46 43 Range 24 9 11 8 6 13 16 6 StD-P 6.5 2.7 3.5 2.8 1.7 4.8 5.1 2.1 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 10: Thursday, November 29, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 30 -8 ERCOT(SP) 61 +9 FRCC(SE) 72 NC MAAC(NE) 34 -22 MAIN(CTR) 27 +2 MAPP(HP) 20 +5 NPCC(NE) 34 -13 SERC(SE) 55 -6 SPP(SP) 41 +4 WSCC(NW) 27 -6 WSCC(RK) 16 -7 WSCC(SW) 39 -9     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 18 41 29 17 58 48 40 Max 33 20 53 31 26 61 56 44 Min 26 12 34 27 8 56 34 34 Range 7 8 19 4 18 5 22 10 StD-P 2.6 3.5 5.5 1.7 4.1 1.0 6.9 2.6 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]