-----Original Message-----
From: 	"PATRICIA TLAPEK" <tti@rcnchicago.com>@ENRON [mailto:IMCEANOTES-+22PATRICIA+20TLAPEK+22+20+3Ctti+40rcnchicago+2Ecom+3E+40ENRON@ENRON.com] 
Sent:	Tuesday, August 28, 2001 8:58 AM
To:	Kaminski, Vince J; Ward, Kim S (Houston)
Subject:	Fw: Nat Gas - Big Picture recent updates


Thought you would be interested.....
Tricia
 
 
----- Original Message ----- 
From: JB  
To: tric  ; Dan Lasater  
Sent: Friday, August 24, 2001 12:54 PM
Subject: Nat Gas - Big Picture recent updates
Friday August 10th marked at  the very least - Momentum Bear Market Low 
 
So,  the actual low came in a day earlier than  anticipated and about 15-17 cents above the 2.75-2.77 target. Check the intraday  out that suggested a rally would unfold following theFriday August 10th low.  
 
Sure enough, natural gas rallied over 20% the  following week. This may be no more than a short covering rally, as double  bottoms are always to be viewed with suspiciously. Thus far, in the month of  August, natural gas has taken out both the July lows and the July highs forming  an outside bar on the month. Will need to monitor the 2nd qtr close of 2001  closely to gauge whether the July and August double bottom is going to hold or  not. At the very least, the double bottom makes a  fantastic momentum low,  if not the actual intermediate bear market price low. 
 
                                         Setting up for an August 27th Three Year Anniversary Low  
 
Lo and behold, Friday August 10 did indeed turn out  to be no more than a Momentum Bear Market Low.  As usual, double bottoms  and tops always make good candidates for failure. But boy what a short covering  rally that was, good for 20% plus in couple of days. In any event, the update to  the monthly chart shows support in the 240-280 zone. Ideally, the bottom will be  seen at or above the November 1990 high at 2.65.  The 85 minute intraday  chart shows an expanding formation setting up a 4 point buy. Noteworthy is the  1.41 ratio at 263.5 that ties in so well with the old 1990 high at 2.65. Of  course downside momentum is strong enough to hammer into the 250's but it would  surprise to see such strong follow through to the downside momentum during the  week of August 27th.  
 
One reason to anticipate downside momentum will  subside next week is a time cycle. Intriguingly, the 3rd step down from the Dec  2000 high will equal the 1st step down in time on Monday August 27th.  And  that time symmetry would be ideal as it ties in so well with the 3 year  anniversary low that began that bull campaign to the Dec 2000 high in the first  place. 


 - 85 MIN CHART AUG 24.gif 
 - 170 min Aug 10 low.gif 
 - Aug monthly log chart update.gif 
 - ng, dc double bottom on Aug 10.gif 
 - TIME FOR AUG 27 ANNIV LOW.gif