Syncrasy - Weather for Business
[IMAGE]	


[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com       Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com  - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com  - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com     Data last updated: Wednesday, Dec 19, 2001 at 07:39AM ET    Commentary last updated: Wednesday, Dec 19, 2001 at 09:45AM ET  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote    Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMSor Aquila  Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'    Today: Wednesday, December 19, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 45 +1 ERCOT(SP) 60 +1 FRCC(SE) 75 NC MAAC(NE) 50 +1 MAIN(CTR) 38 +2 MAPP(HP) 33 +1 NPCC(NE) 43 +1 SERC(SE) 59 +1 SPP(SP) 49 +1 WSCC(NW) 41 +1 WSCC(RK) 40 NC WSCC(SW) 57 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 32 40 37 32 59 51 53 Max 41 40 45 41 41 63 59 58 Min 33 28 37 34 26 55 45 49 Range 8 12 8 7 15 8 14 9 StD-P 2.2 3.9 2.6 1.5 4.2 2.3 3.9 2.5 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:   The strong ridge/trough configuration of recent weeks relaxes temporarily. It will reload again this weekend on the way to a transition to winter.   The weather system in the Midwest this morning is weak when compared to recent standards. There is however, a decent cool air push behind it though most of the precipitation with this is still liquid in nature. The gradual trend down in temperatures continues as the pattern slowly changes. We have seen near record warming out ahead of these systems early in December, now the warming is not quite so robust. There won't be many changes yet to 5 day temperature departures as they remain above normal. Those changes may start to show up by Friday. The next system to hit the West coast tonight and Thursday looks more robust. Models continue to show the evolution of thi! s storm as the window to the soul of the long awaited pattern change. It will be a sizeable wet weather maker this weekend and into Christmas. There should be ample cold in the Northern U.S. for snow, but most still see rain. It is a little early as to the potential of this storm with regard to the East Coast for Christmas. It is my feeling at this early stage that the I95 corridor is mainly a rain event with snow for the Lakes and Interior NE.  Tomorrow: Thursday, December 20, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 37 NC ERCOT(SP) 63 +2 FRCC(SE) 68 -1 MAAC(NE) 45 +1 MAIN(CTR) 39 NC MAPP(HP) 35 NC NPCC(NE) 38 +1 SERC(SE) 54 NC SPP(SP) 55 +2 WSCC(NW) 39 +1 WSCC(RK) 42 +4 WSCC(SW) 54 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 35 39 37 36 53 54 50 Max 39 42 45 41 45 62 64 57 Min 28 30 35 33 31 46 46 44 Range 11 12 10 8 14 16 18 13 StD-P 3.5 3.4 2.2 2.1 4.1 4.6 4.8 4.0 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Friday, December 21, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 40 +2 ERCOT(SP) 65 +1 FRCC(SE) 69 NC MAAC(NE) 42 NC MAIN(CTR) 43 +4 MAPP(HP) 37 +7 NPCC(NE) 33 NC SERC(SE) 56 +1 SPP(SP) 55 +1 WSCC(NW) 36 +1 WSCC(RK) 32 -3 WSCC(SW) 50 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 37 33 34 32 52 59 47 Max 40 39 40 39 45 58 62 54 Min 30 33 28 30 24 46 56 42 Range 10 6 12 9 21 12 6 12 StD-P 2.3 2.0 2.9 2.4 5.5 3.7 2.1 3.7 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 4: Saturday, December 22, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 47 +6 ERCOT(SP) 63 -2 FRCC(SE) 74 +1 MAAC(NE) 44 NC MAIN(CTR) 40 +8 MAPP(HP) 27 +2 NPCC(NE) 36 +2 SERC(SE) 58 NC SPP(SP) 45 +3 WSCC(NW) 39 +2 WSCC(RK) 26 -5 WSCC(SW) 52 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 39 30 32 36 23 57 58 47 Max 41 37 39 39 36 61 63 52 Min 38 26 27 34 15 54 55 43 Range 3 11 12 5 21 7 8 9 StD-P 1.0 3.3 2.9 1.1 5.9 1.6 1.7 2.8 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 5: Sunday, December 23, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 43 +8 ERCOT(SP) 54 +1 FRCC(SE) 75 +1 MAAC(NE) 47 +5 MAIN(CTR) 32 +2 MAPP(HP) 20 -5 NPCC(NE) 40 +7 SERC(SE) 56 +1 SPP(SP) 39 NC WSCC(NW) 41 NC WSCC(RK) 29 -5 WSCC(SW) 54 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 23 38 39 22 58 48 49 Max 37 29 42 41 29 61 60 54 Min 31 18 35 36 15 55 37 44 Range 6 11 7 5 14 6 23 10 StD-P 1.7 2.9 1.7 1.4 4.3 1.8 6.3 3.0 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:  Model consensus remains fairly strong with the evolution of the 6-10 day period. We should at long last start seeing negative departures East of the Rockies though I wouldn't call the numbers significant. It is significant only when comparing to the last two months. Late in the period, all of the models forecast a sizeable Western U.S. ridge and Eastern trough. This brings the flow out of Canada and into the Plains. Now, attention turns to source region of the air mass. It is clearly Canadian, but equally clear to me it is not pure arctic. Thats why I dont think we are yet heading way below normal. The coldest polar air is on the other side of the hemisphere. It can come around if this pattern were to lock in for a while, but that is after the first of the year. There is potential for serious cold early to mid January, but rig! ht now its all potential. Until then, the gradual step-down seems in order.    Day 6: Monday, December 24, 2001  Click Herefor Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information.  Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 36 +3 ERCOT(SP) 51 -4 FRCC(SE) 70 -1 MAAC(NE) 48 +11 MAIN(CTR) 29 -1 MAPP(HP) 23 -5 NPCC(NE) 40 +10 SERC(SE) 50 -1 SPP(SP) 38 -7 WSCC(NW) 43 +3 WSCC(RK) 34 -1 WSCC(SW) 56 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 25 40 41 24 52 43 50 Max 30 31 42 43 34 59 53 55 Min 24 19 37 38 17 46 33 45 Range 6 12 5 5 17 13 20 10 StD-P 1.5 2.5 1.4 1.6 5.4 4.6 5.9 3.2 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Tuesday, December 25, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 34 NC ERCOT(SP) 54 -6 FRCC(SE) 65 -1 MAAC(NE) 41 +2 MAIN(CTR) 32 -3 MAPP(HP) 27 -5 NPCC(NE) 39 +8 SERC(SE) 47 -3 SPP(SP) 43 -5 WSCC(NW) 43 +1 WSCC(RK) 37 +1 WSCC(SW) 56 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 26 27 36 40 28 45 41 51 Max 30 35 42 43 37 53 51 57 Min 20 20 32 36 22 40 34 46 Range 10 15 10 7 15 13 17 11 StD-P 1.4 2.5 3.0 2.3 4.2 4.5 6.1 3.6 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 8: Wednesday, December 26, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 28 +2 ERCOT(SP) 37 -9 FRCC(SE) 55 NC MAAC(NE) 32 +4 MAIN(CTR) 23 -2 MAPP(HP) 24 +3 NPCC(NE) 36 +18 SERC(SE) 36 -4 SPP(SP) 32 +2 WSCC(NW) 37 -1 WSCC(RK) 25 +3 WSCC(SW) 50 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 26 31 33 39 29 44 44 52 Max 31 36 38 42 37 51 54 57 Min 21 26 29 36 23 38 36 48 Range 10 10 9 6 14 13 18 9 StD-P 2.2 3.3 3.4 2.7 5.2 4.2 5.9 3.3 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Thursday, December 27, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 24 +3 ERCOT(SP) 44 +2 FRCC(SE) 53 -4 MAAC(NE) 31 +3 MAIN(CTR) 22 +6 MAPP(HP) 21 +12 NPCC(NE) 33 +12 SERC(SE) 37 +1 SPP(SP) 35 +11 WSCC(NW) 35 -1 WSCC(RK) 20 -2 WSCC(SW) 49 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 26 29 31 38 26 44 46 51 Max 31 37 36 43 37 50 54 57 Min 21 26 25 34 18 39 42 48 Range 10 11 11 9 19 11 12 9 StD-P 3.3 3.4 2.3 3.5 5.8 3.9 4.3 3.3 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 10: Friday, December 28, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 18 +3 ERCOT(SP) 43 +9 FRCC(SE) 57 NC MAAC(NE) 24 +4 MAIN(CTR) 17 +5 MAPP(HP) 18 +15 NPCC(NE) 25 +9 SERC(SE) 37 +8 SPP(SP) 31 +12 WSCC(NW) 35 -3 WSCC(RK) 21 -8 WSCC(SW) 47 -7     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 19 23 25 32 17 40 38 41 Max 22 27 29 35 20 41 40 49 Min 16 20 23 23 13 36 35 34 Range 6 7 6 12 7 5 5 15 StD-P 2.2 2.4 2.3 4.4 2.2 1.2 2.3 6.0 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.comor    www.apbenergy.comor www.truequote.com   [IMAGE]