T H U R S D A Y   E V E N I N G   E X T R E M E   M A R K E T S
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Thursday: The CRB Index has advanced 0.48 points to 190.15. The 
US Dollar Index rose 0.14 points to 115.59.

The Dow Industrials moved down 85.31 points, at 9985.18, while 
the S&P 500 fell 9.63 points, last seen at 1139.93. The 
Nasdaq Composite trended lower by 64.35 points to 1918.54.
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E X T R E M E   M A R K E T   C O M M E N T A R Y
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The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes

Stock indexes were lower on Thursday due to a number of earnings
warnings among high-tech companies. Additional pressure was due to
profit taking ahead of the Christmas holiday. The NASDAQ closed
sharply lower on Thursday and below last week's low of 1934.60 and is
poised to test the 25% retracement level of this fall's rally
crossing at 1905.53 possibly on Friday. Momentum indicators remain
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into
early-January. The March S&P 500 index also closed lower on Thursday
due to light profit taking triggered by a number of earnings warnings
and Congresses inability to pass an economic stimulus package before
Christmas. Bulls were encouraged as March remained within Wednesday's
trading range thereby leaving the door open for additional short
covering possibly into the end of the year. 

The Dow posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday due to
light profit taking ahead of the Christmas Day holiday. Additional
pressure came from a earnings and revenue warning from Juniper
Networks causing some concern over the recent rally in technology
stocks. News that Congress will not likely pass an economic stimulus
package also weighed on prices. Losses were limited as the latest
jobless claims report showed a decline of 11,000 claims to 384,000. 

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest

March T-bonds closed slightly lower on Thursday but ended above
trendline resistance drawn across the Nov./Dec. highs, which crosses
near 101-05. Multiple closes above this downtrend line and broken
support crossing at 101-22 are needed to confirm today's trendline
breakout. Support came from the latest jobless claims report, which
showed a decline of 11,000 to 384,000. Momentum indicators have
turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
into the end of the year. I would not be surprised to see subdued
trading on Friday as many traders will have already left to celebrate
Christmas early. 

The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes

The CRB index closed modestly higher on Thursday due to strength in
hogs, precious metals, some foods, and natural gas. Today's rebound
ended a two-day sell off from Monday's high. However, the mid-range
close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Friday. Closes
above 193.39 or below 187.73 are needed to clear up near-term
direction in the market. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible into the
end of the year.

ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy

The energy markets closed lower on Thursday with the exception of
natural gas. Today's weakness appears to be due to profit taking
ahead of Christmas, as many traders will start the weekend early
taking Friday off. Trading is likely to remain subdued ahead of
OPEC's upcoming meeting next week when they will decide whether or
not to go ahead with their announce production cut of 1.5 million
barrels per day. Non- OPEC countries combined cuts are fast
approaching the 500,000 barrel per day production cut needed for OPEC
to enact their own cuts. 

February crude oil posted a key reversal down on Thursday due to
light profit taking. Early strength failed to exceed Wednesday's high
of 20.18, which triggered the sell off into the close. Additional
weakness on Friday would confirm today's bearish reversal pattern
that could lead to a test of recent lows crossing at 18.20. Trading
is likely to remain subdued ahead of next week's OPEC meeting. 

February heating oil posted a key reversal down on Thursday after a
spike above the early-December high crossing at 57.85 failed to
attract additional buying. The low-range close on Thursday sets the
stage for follow-through selling due to light profit taking ahead of
Christmas on Friday. Trading volume will be low as many traders are
expected to start the Christmas weekend on Friday. A lower close on
Friday would signal that a double top may have been posted with
today's high. 

February unleaded gas also posted a key reversal down on Thursday due
to profit taking after spiking above the early- December high of
57.62. Early strength failed to trigger new buying so traders dumped
their long positions ahead of the Christmas holiday weekend.
Additional weakness on Friday would turn the near-term trend sideways
ahead of next week's much anticipated OPEC meeting. 

February Henry Hub natural gas closed higher due to short covering on
Thursday despite Wednesday's slightly negative AGA weekly inventory
report. The report showed a draw of 44 billion cubic feet from U.S.
stocks last week, which was below expectations, due in part to above
normal temps across large portions of high demand regions of the
country and continued weakness from industry. Closes above 2.94 or
below December's low at 2.58 are needed to clear up near-term
direction in the market. 

CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies

The March Dollar closed higher on Thursday but near session lows due
to a late round of profit taking. Early strength tested last week's
gap beginning at 11.46 before buying dried up. The low-range close
leaves the door open for additional profit taking ahead of Christmas
on Friday. Closes above gap resistance crossing at 116.55 would
signal that a larger-degree rebound is possible into January.
Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that additional
gains are possible. 

The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday due to light short
covering. Closes above Monday's high at .6154 are needed to renew
March's rebound off December's low. At the same time stochastics and
the RSI are nearing their respective overbought zones hinting that a
test of November's high crossing at .6182 is possible however, time
is no longer on their side. If this resistance level is tested in the
near-future, it would likely mark a short-term top, defining the
upper boundary of this winter's trading range. 

The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday and below the 38%
retracement level of November's rally crossing at .6342. Today's
decline sets the stage for a likely test of December's reaction low
crossing at .6325 possibly before the end of the year. Momentum
indicators have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible into early-January. 

The March Japanese Yen continues to decline off November's high and
remains poised to eventually test monthly fib support crossing at
.7568 later this winter. The daily ADX is bearish signaling that
additional weakness is possible. Closes above November?s downtrend
line crossing near .7972 are needed to confirm a bottom and trend
change has taken place.

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals

February gold posted a quiet inside day with a higher close on
Thursday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Wednesday's
loss. While another day or two of consolidation above Wednesday's low
is possible, stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into
early-January. Closes above 283.30 or below 271.70 are needed to
clear up near-term direction in the market. 

March silver closed higher on Thursday leaving Wednesday's key
reversal down unconfirmed. Today's rebound leaves March poised to
test the 50% retracement level crossing at 4.423. Closes above this
resistance level are needed to keep the rally off November's low
alive. At the same time, stochastics and the RSI are very overbought
warning traders to use caution as a short-term top appears to be in
or is near.

March copper closed higher on Thursday as it continues to consolidate
above the 50% retracement level of November's rally crossing at 67.50
and above December's broken downtrend line. Short-term momentum
indicators are oversold and turning neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible into the end of the year. If
this month's decline resumes, the 62% retracement level crossing at
66.04 is a potential target.

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains

March corn closed lower on Thursday following this morning's
disappointing export sales report, which showed net sales of only
23.7 million bushels. Additional pressure came from uncertainty over
China's grain policies and conflicting data regarding their ending
stocks level. Trading volume continues to dry up ahead of the
extended Christmas Holiday weekend, which leaves the market
vulnerable to test its contract low at 2.10 1/4 on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are still possible into early-January. Closes below the
contract low would open the door for a possible test of weekly
support crossing at 2.04 1/4 later this winter. 

March wheat closed sharply lower on Thursday erasing almost all of
Wednesday's gains. The reason for today's sell off was a lack of
confirmation about Wednesday's announced sale to China. Additional
pressure was triggered when Cargill was a featured seller of wheat
today. This week's back and fill type trading is often typical ahead
of the Christmas Holiday and the end of the year due to reduced
trading volume. While momentum indicators remain bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible into the end of the year,
it will take closes above the Nov./Dec. downtrend line crossing near
2.95 to temper the bearish outlook in the market. 

SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains

January soybeans closed fractionally higher on Thursday following
another strong weekly export sales report. The report showed net
soybean sales of 36.6 million bushels. However, gains were limited
due to weakness in corn and wheat. While demand remains strong for
U.S. soybeans, the market is becoming increasingly concerned that
South American supplies will soon cut in to U.S. export business.
Without any major weather problems down south, I am looking for
soybeans to continue to drift sideways to lower into January.

January soybean meal closed higher on Thursday following another
strong weekly export sales report. The report showed net sales of
142,400 metric tonnes. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at
151.90 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.
Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and have turned bullish with
today's rally hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible
into the end of the year.

LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock

February hogs posted an upside reversal on Thursday hinting that the
setback off Monday's high might have come to an end. A higher close
on Friday is needed to confirm today's bullish reversal pattern.
Today's rally was triggered by talk that packers could raise their
cash bids on Friday to fill their needs for what could be a large
Saturday kill. Today's rally was limited ahead of this afternoon's
monthly cold storage report. The report showed 36.290 million pounds
of bellies in storage as of Nov. 30th, which is below pre- report
estimates. Early calls are for steady to higher hogs on Friday and
higher belly prices following today's friendly cold storage report. 

February cattle closed lower on Thursday as news of $62 cash trade in
Kansas pressured the market lower. Thursday's decline ate into
Tuesday's rally as traders are positioning themselves ahead of
Friday's cattle-on-feed report. Momentum indicators remain bullish
but will need to see renewed strength soon or risk rolling over into
bearish modes when trading resumes next week. 

FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food

March coffee closed into new highs for the month on Thursday thereby
renewing this month's short covering rally. Session highs filled
November's gap at 49.60 thereby opening the door for a larger-degree
rebound into January. Today's rally was due to year-end short
covering by funds and small speculators. Light support came from news
that the Central American harvest remains slow and part of that
coffee crop will go unpicked due to current low prices. Stochastics
and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible into the end of the year. November's high crossing at
53.00 is March's next target. 

March cocoa closed lower on Thursday in relatively quiet trading
following Wednesday's gap down and lower close. Momentum indicators
have turned bearish with this week's setback thereby increasing the
odds that a short-term top is in place. Today's mid-range close
leaves the door open for sideways trading on Friday. Closes below
last week's low crossing at 1212 would open the door for a
larger-degree decline into January. 

March sugar closed higher on Thursday due to light short covering
following Wednesday's close below the 50% retracement level of this
fall's rally crossing at 698. However, buying dried up late in the
session, which led to a mid-range close. Sideways trading is possible
on Friday however, momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible into early-January. I am
looking for March to try and test November's low at 661 later this
winter. 

March cotton posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday
following a disappointing export sales report. Traders were looking
for export sales to range from 200,000 to 250,000 bales. However, the
report came in showing sales of only 169,900 bales. Fallout from
Wednesday's upward revised Chinese crop estimate also weighed on
prices. This week's setback has turned stochastics and the RSI
bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
into the end of the year. Closes above 37.60 or below 34.91 are
needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. 

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I N O   N E W S   
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E X T R E M E   F U T U R E S
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Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/

WINNERS

ZRH2   U.S. Dollar/South African Rand Mar 2002   13.7260    0.8985  +6.96
KCH2   Coffee 'C' Mar 2002                         49.60      2.70  +5.76
DBN2   Butter Jul 2002                           153.000     5.000  +3.38
NGF2   Henry Hub Natural Gas Jan 2002              2.686     0.074  +2.83
SIN2   Silver Jul 2002                             4.410     0.115  +2.66
OJH2   Orange Juice Froz. Conc. #1 Mar 2002        96.30      1.90  +2.01
SMF2   Soybean Meal Jan 2002                       151.3       2.8  +1.89
SBH3   Sugar #11 World Mar 2003                     6.31      0.11  +1.76
XEF2   Soybean Meal Jan 2002                       151.3       2.3  +1.55
LBF2   Random Length Lumber Jan 2002              247.00      3.10  +1.27

LOSERS

YLH2   NYSE Large Composite Mar 2002              583.15    -47.90  -8.18
PNF2   Propane Jan 2002                           0.3150   -0.0150  -4.62
NDZ1   NASDAQ 100 Index Dec 2001                 1558.50    -69.00  -4.24
AGZ1   Silver 1,000 oz. Dec 2001                   4.211    -0.173  -4.02
HOH2   Heating Oil Mar 2002                       0.5501   -0.0169  -2.98
CLG2   Light Sweet Crude Oil Feb 2002              19.28     -0.55  -2.78
XWH2   Wheat Mar 2002                            287 1/2    -5 3/4  -1.96
KWH2   Wheat Mar 2002                            283 3/4    -5 1/4  -1.82
RLH2   Russell 2000 Index Mar 2002                475.00     -8.25  -1.71
HUG2   New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Feb 20    0.5567   -0.0096  -1.69

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E X T R E M E   S T O C K S
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Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/

WINNERS

SLHN   STEARNS & LEHMAN INC                       6.2500    2.3500  +60.26
MGRC   MCGRATH RENTCORP                          37.5000   12.5200  +50.14
DSTM   DATASTREAM SYSTEMS                         5.5500    1.1600  +25.78
ETC    ENVIRONMENTAL TECTONICS                      7.00      1.16  +20.03
NFLD   NORTHFIELD LABORATORIES                    8.8000    1.3300  +17.50
RBIN   R & B INC                                  6.9990    1.0200  +17.23
USAK   USA TRUCK                                 11.4000    1.5000  +15.00
SOS    STORAGE COMPUTER                             6.05      0.80  +14.95
HOFF   HORIZON OFFSHORE                           5.8600    0.7500  +13.64
IPIC   INTERNEURON PHARMACEUTICALS               10.7600    1.2600  +13.53

LOSERS

ASW    A.C.L.N. LTD                                 9.40    -16.81  -64.38
NOVT   NOVOSTE CORP                               8.0100   -3.7800  -31.74
TERN   TERAYON COMMUNICATIONS SYS                 7.4800   -2.9200  -28.24
PKTR   PACKETEER INC                              6.2500   -1.6105  -20.28
SABA   SABA SOFTWARE                              5.1100   -1.2600  -19.69
AMHC   AMER HEALTHWAYS INC                       29.0000   -7.0500  -19.45
GTPS   GREAT AMERICAN BANCORP                    19.2000   -4.1700  -17.84
JNPR   JUNIPER NETWORKS                          18.8500   -4.0800  -17.79
VANS   VANS INC                                  11.4500   -2.4400  -17.45
NRGN   NEUROGEN CORP                             16.6500   -3.4400  -17.37
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