-----Original Message-----
From: 	"Dr. Bob Sports" <football@drbobsports.com>@ENRON [mailto:IMCEANOTES-+22Dr+2E+20Bob+20Sports+22+20+3Cfootball+40drbobsports+2Ecom+3E+40ENRON@ENRON.com] 
Sent:	Thursday, September 20, 2001 6:07 AM
To:	Wilson, Derek
Subject:	College Football Best Bets

Dear Member:

This week I have 3 College Football Best Bets and 5 Strong Opinions. Remember, I only
play the Best Bets. The Strong Opinions are games that were close to being Best Bets.
Opinions usually win around 54% of 55% of the time. Good luck.

3 Star Selection
OHIO (-2.0) 38 Iowa St. 24
Ohio University returned 17 starters from last year's 7-4 team, but they stand at 0-2
after road losses at Akron and West Virginia. I expect the Bobcats to bounce back with a
strong effort here at home, where they are 14-7 ATS the last 5 years and 8-1 straight up
recently. Ohio runs an option offense that returns 9 starters from a unit that averaged
323 rushing yards at 5.5 ypr last season. That offense will prosper against an Iowa State
defense that allowed 4.5 yards per rush to Northern Iowa in their only game this season.
The Cyclones have historically been horrible defending the run and they even allowed 4.4
ypr last season despite having two defensive lineman that were taken in the 3rd and 7th
round of the NFL draft last spring. With only 3 returning starters and no stars on
defense, the Cyclones will once again allow teams to run on them and Ohio should easily
rack up over 300 rushing yards at about 6 yards per rush in this game. The Bobcats can
also throw the ball when needed as they averaged 7.8 yards per pass last year and have
thrown for 10.1 yards per pass this season. While the Bobcats' offense figures to
flourish, the defense is good enough to contain a Cyclones' attack that tallied just 337
total yards against Northern Iowa. Don't be fooled by the 45 points that Iowa State put
on the scoreboard in that game as Northern Iowa turned the ball over 7 times, leading to
short drives of just 18 yards, 13 yards and 15 yards. Iowa State will be a good running
team again this season with the quick Seneca Wallace at quarterback and Ennis Haywood as
the featured back (1311 yards at 5.2 ypr last season). However, Wallace is not a good
passing quarterback and he completed just 5 of 11 passes for a paltry 48 yards in the
opener while the other Cyclones quarterbacks could muster only 41 yards on 7 passes. Ohio
returns 8 starters to a defense that allowed just 19 points per game last year and held
Iowa State to 25 points and Minnesota to 17 points in two road games against good
offensive teams from major conferences. Iowa State is not as good offensively this year
with quarterback Sage Rosenfels in the NFL, so I see no reason why the experienced
Bobcats' defense won't be able to limit the Cyclones again this season here at home. Ohio
qualifies in a 167-97-4 ATS early season indicator that is already 12-6 ATS this season
and they also qualify in a 56-18-1 ATS statistical indicator that plays on good running
teams against teams that can't stop the run. Iowa State is also just 6-18-1 ATS as a road
underdog in coach Dan McCarney's 6 years at the helm and that record will be even worse
after today.

2 Star Selection
Michigan St. 20  NOTRE DAME (-9.0) 21
Michigan State has won and covered the spread with room to spare in each of the last 4
years in this series with 3 wins coming as an underdog. I'll look for another possible
upset here as the Irish continue to be overrated. The Irish offense is better than
average both running and passing and they should be able to run the ball pretty well
against a Spartans' defense that is just average defending the run. However, quarterback
Matt LoVecchio struggled last week against Nebraska (3.7 yards per pass) and I don't see
the Irish doing much damage through the air against a Michigan State secondary that is
still very good even without injured star CB Cedric Henry. Michigan State's offense is
loaded with talent at the skill positions, with two solid quarterbacks, a Heisman
candidate at running back in TJ Duckett, and budding super-star wide receiver Charles
Rogers. Notre Dame has an outstanding defensive front and they should have their way with
an inexperienced Michigan State offensive line with 4 new starters. However, quarterback
Smoker should be able to exploit a questionable Notre Dame secondary that allowed 7.7
yards per pass last year and lose 2 NFL draft choices from their secondary. Notre Dame is
only 6-13 ATS as a favorite of more than 3 points under coach Davies and my ratings favor
them by only 6 points in this game. The Spartans, meanwhile, qualify in a 95-38-3 ATS
road underdog situation that won for me in a Best Bet on Utah at Oregon two weeks ago,
and they also qualify in a 48-16 ATS early season road underdog situation that is 17-2
ATS the last 5 years. With those angles qualifying, I'll call for an even closer margin
than my ratings project and make the Spartans a Best Bet.

2 Star Selection
WAKE FOREST 20 Maryland (-6.0) 19
Wake Forest is the nation's most experienced team, with 20 of last year's 22 starters
returning for new head coach Jim Grobe. The Demon Deacons' veterans have bought into
Grobe's demanding work ethic and the results are a 2-0 start that includes an impressive
road win at East Carolina (a probable bowl team) in which the Deacons out-gained the
Pirates 451 yards to 294 yards. Wake Forest also won 20-10 at home against Appalachian
State, a very good Division 1AA team that had beaten Wake 2 straight times. Wake Forest
has more talent than is indicated by last year's 2-9 record and it looks like Jim Grobe
has started to get this team to play to their potential. Wake Forest runs an option
offense much like Grobe ran successfully at Ohio University and thus far the Deacons are
averaging 417 total yards per game. Maryland's defense has faced two troubled offensive
teams so far and has allowed just 10 points total to North Carolina and Eastern Michigan.
Aside from a 77 yard touchdown run, the Terps held Carolina to just 199 yards at 3.2
yards per play. Maryland then allowed just 124 total yards to a horrible Eastern Michigan
team two weeks ago. The Terrapins' strength is their pass defense, as they have limited
their two opponents to just 3.0 yards per pass play (including sacks) while picking off 5
passes. That strength will not be much of a factor in this game since Wake Forest only
throws the ball on 22% of their plays and they've been very successful doing so,
averaging 9.5 yards per pass play. The key for Maryland is their defense of the option
rush plays and the Terrapins have allowed only 3.6 yards per rushing play (not including
sacks), which is a very good number (the national average this year is 4.3 yprp).
However, their opponents - North Carolina and Eastern Michigan- are both poor running
teams and my ratings suggest than an average run defense would hold those two teams to
just 3.9 yards per rushing play. Thus, Maryland is about 0.3 yards per rush play better
than average and I expect them to do a pretty good job of defending the option (3.8 yards
per rush is my projection). Wake Forest has done an excellent job of throwing from the
option this year, averaging 9.5 yards per pass, but I project them at about 6.8 yards per
pass play (including sacks), which is the number that Grobe's team averaged at Ohio
University last season running the same offense. Maryland has allowed only 3.0 yards per
pass play in their two games against bad offensive teams and I calculate that they would
have allowed 3.9 yards per pass play if they played at that same level against a pair of
averaging throwing teams. In this game, I expect the Terps' defense to limit Wake Forest
to about 5 yards per pass play. Putting all of that math together, I project Wake Forest
to score 20 points. That should be enough to cover the number against a Maryland offense
that the Deacons' defense should be able to handle. The Terrapins have struggled a bit in
picking up the nuances of Ralph Friedgen's system, but they have performed a bit better
than average both running and passing. Maryland has averaged 4.8 yards per rushing play
(not including sacks) in their first two games while averaging 5.1 yards per pass play
(including sacks) with quarterback Shaun Hill in the game. An average offense would have
averaged 4.5 yards per rushing play and 5.0 yards per pass play against the defenses of
North Carolina (very good) and Eastern Michigan (very bad), so the Terps are a bit better
than average both running and passing so far this season. The Wake Forest defense should
be up to the task of defending that offense as they have performed very well thus far,
allowing only 3.8 yards per rushing play and 5.9 yards per pass play. Especially
impressive is the 63 yards at 25 yards per rushing play that they held a good running
East Carolina team to. Using the same methods of compensation for Wake's defensive stats
suggests that the Demon Deacons have been especially good at defending the run and about
average defending the pass. Using those compensated number, I predict Maryland to run for
about 3.9 yards per rushing play and 5.7 yards per pass play and that translates into 19
points. In addition to all of that painstaking math, Maryland is also in a letdown
situation as teams that start the season 2-0 straight up with no spread losses are just
26-55 ATS as a road favorite of 17 points or less in game 3 (15-41 ATS for road favorites
of 8 points or less). Wake Forest, meanwhile, qualifies in a 46-14-2 ATS early season
home underdog situation that has been very good to me over the years. While both of these
teams are vastly improved with their new coaches, it appears as if Wake Forest is more
improved and a bit underrated. With that being the case and with good situations
supporting the Demon Deacons as well, I will call for the upset.

Strong Opinion
Florida St. (-17.0) 31 NORTH CAROLINA 7
North Carolina has faced the toughest schedule in the nation so far this year, with trips
to Oklahoma, Maryland, and Texas. That's 2 of the top 5 teams in the nation and a
Maryland team that will probably make it to a bowl game this year. The Tarheels have been
outscored by an average of 16-36 in those 3 games, but they have really been much more
competitive than the scoreboard has shown. North Carolina has averaged 259 total yards
per game and allowed just 287 total yards per contest. Such play would normally lead to
about an average loss of just 3 points, but a -8 in turnover margin and some special
teams blunders have kept the Tarheels from keeping those 3 games close. Carolina's 3
opponents have out-gained their opposition by an average of 378 yards to 233 yards this
season, so the fact that North Carolina has stayed within 28 total yards per game of
those teams is admirable. The truth is that North Carolina is just a bit below average
offensively and very good defensively. In this game, the Heels are once again up against
one of the top teams in the nation and I suspect that they will lose the turnover battle
again since Florida State has not committed a turnover this season. The Seminoles now
have just 7 starters from last year's team, but they are still outstanding on both sides
of the ball. On offense, the rushing attack looks good once again this season and new
quarterback Chris Rix is doing a good job throwing the football, averaging 8.2 yards per
pass with no interceptions. Rix averaged over 10 yards per pass against a very good UAB
defense in the 'Noles last game and I expect him to perform pretty well against the very
good North Carolina stop unit. Florida State's defense has only 4 returning starters but
they are once again dominating on that side of the ball, allowing only 1.8 yards per rush
and 6.0 yards per pass. North Carolina will once again struggle against a great defense
and I expect some more costly mistakes in the form of turnovers from the Heels (I
actually predict a touchdown by Florida State's defense or special teams in this game).
While I respect North Carolina's defense and usually like to take big home underdogs with
a strong stop unit, I will side with the Seminoles in this game on the basis of a 126-58-
1 ATS statistical indicator. Florida State also has a tendency to step up when challenged
a bit and they are 47-26-2 ATS in all regular season games since 1987 when they are not
favored by 21 points or more.

Strong Opinion
Buffalo 23  CONNECTICUT (-7.0) 24
The Huskies looked like the superior team heading into the season, but the retirement of
starting quarterback Ryan Tracey has hurt Connecticut, who gained just 194 total yards of
offense against Division 1AA Eastern Washington in their last game after getting just 184
yards against Virginia Tech. Buffalo has played pretty well defensively in 2 games
against other bad offensive teams Rutgers and Bowling Green, allowing just 4.6 yards per
play and they should be able to contain the Huskies in this game. Buffalo's offense is
also bad, but Connecticut is a horrible defensive team that has allowed 568 total yards
per game, including 530 yards to Eastern Washington. Buffalo tallied 360 yards against U
Conn last year and returns 8 starters to that offense. My ratings predict 23 points for
the Bulls in this game and they should cover the number if they can top 20 points.
Buffalo has failed to cover in both of their games this year while Connecticut covered in
their 42 point loss as a 48 point dog at Virginia Tech. It appears as if those
pointspread results have given us line value on the side of the Bulls in this game and
teams that start out the season 0-2 straight up and 0-2 ATS have a history of covering
the spread in game 3 when facing a team that is also not off 2 spread loss and is not
undefeated (57-27-2 ATS). Buffalo is just 4-8 ATS on the road since they became a
Division 1A team 3 years ago, so I will hold off on making a play on them here despite
the good value and the good situation.

Strong Opinion
TULSA 24  Fresno St. (-13.5) 31
Tulsa has had 3 full weeks off since their 51-0 win over Indiana State on August 30th and
the Hurricanes believe that they can win this game over this year's Cinderella. Fresno
State has opened the season with 3 straight upset wins and you might think that this
would be a letdown spot for them. However, teams that start the season 3-0 straight up
are actually pretty good plays as road favorites in game 4 and Fresno is as good as
they've shown in beating future bowl teams Colorado, Oregon State and Wisconsin. There
have been only 17 teams that have won straight up as an underdog in 3 consecutive games
in the last 21 years and those teams are just 5-12 ATS in their next game. However, the
week off gave Fresno a chance to collect themselves and come down from the high of
winning at Wisconsin, which brought their record to 3-0 and catapulted them into the top
15. Of the 17 teams that won 3 straight as an underdog, 3 of them had a week off before
their next game and all 3 of those teams covered the spread (making teams 2-12 ATS if
they won their 3rd straight as a dog the previous week). So, perhaps Fresno State is not
in a letdown situation after all. Tulsa, however, is full of confidence and qualifies in 
a number of high percentage situations and they are capable of competing with the
Bulldogs in this game. Fresno State is not a good running team, but quarterback David
Carr is one of the nation's best and is averaging 7.2 yards per pass with just 1
interception against 3 very good secondaries. Tulsa blanked a horrible Indiana State
offense and allowed just 69 total yards in doing so, but their defense is still
questionable defending the run and only average in the secondary. The veteran Hurricane
secondary is a positive match-up for them here against a Fresno offense that gets 67% of
their yards through the air, but my ratings still forecast 31 points for the Dogs in this
game. Tulsa's offense also depends on the pass, although featured back Eric Richardson
ran for nearly 400 yards at 6.4 ypr in his 2 starts to end last season (but only had 75
yards at 3.8 ypr against Indiana State). Fresno has yielded just 2.3 ypr this season and
shut down Heisman candidate Ken Simonton in their win over Oregon State. Tulsa should
have some success in the air with talented 3rd year starter Josh Blankenship throwing to
a good corps of receivers. Fresno has a good secondary, allowing 7.5 yards per pass with
5 interceptions this season against 3 good passing teams that combine to average 7.7
yards per pass on offense. Tulsa threw for 352 yards at 6.4 yards per pass last year
against Fresno and they were only out-gained in that game by 21 total yards. But a -3 in
turnover margin led to a 12-34 loss at Fresno. Things should be pretty competitive in
this game as Tulsa was 5-1 ATS at home last year while Fresno is just 2-9 ATS as a road
favorite since '94, including 0-4 ATS the last 2 years.

Strong Opinion
COLORADO (-24.5) 45 Kansas 13
Colorado is one of the nation's most improved teams as they rate among my top 20 teams
overall after recording a 3-8 mark last season. The Buffaloes are good both running and
throwing the football and they defend the run and pass effectively. In 3 games against
average overall opposition (Fresno State, Colorado State and San Jose State), the Buffs
are averaging 215 rushing yards at 4.6 ypr, 246 pass yards at 7.3 ypp and are allowing
just 295 total yards per game at 3.5 ypr and 4.8 ypp. Colorado should have an easy time
scoring against a Jayhawks' defense that allowed UCLA to run for 285 yards at 4.8 ypr and
thrown for 183 yards at 9.6 ypp. Following their opening day loss to Fresno State, the
Buffaloes have scored an average of 46 points in two games and I expect another strong
offensive showing in this game. The Kansas offense was worse than expected in their loss
to UCLA, as they gained just 89 yards at 2.4 ypr on the ground while throwing for just
156 yards at 4.7 ypp. However, things could be just as bad today as the Jayhawks lost
their top playmaker on offense in receiver Harrison Hill, who was injured in the UCLA
game. Kansas is worse than average running the ball and throwing it while Colorado is
solid against the run and among the best in the nation at defending the pass. Aside from
the fundamental edges, Kansas is just 3-20 ATS in their last 23 road games and Colorado
has covered all 4 times as a favorite of 14 points or more under coach Barnett. This
looks like another big win for the Buffaloes.

Strong Opinion
SMU 13  No Carolina St. (-15.0) 23
SMU is not nearly as bad as they appear to be after losing 6-36 to Louisiana Tech and 10-
38 to TCU. The Mustangs out-gained Louisiana Tech 286 total yards to 245 total yards, but
a fumble return for a touchdown and an interception return for a touchdown by Tech blew
open the game. SMU then held TCU to just 290 total yards but the Horned Frogs had 2
fumble returns for touchdowns in that game. While SMU would have lost both games without
the offense allowing those touchdowns, they are not as bad as perceived and should only
be an 11 ? point underdog in this game based on my ratings. SMU returns 18 starters from
last year's 3-9 team and I expected them to be improved on both sides of the ball. While
the Mustangs are clearly improved on the stop side of the ball (268 yards per game
allowed at 3.2 ypr and 5.5 ypp), their offense seems to be worse than a year ago. NC
State opened the season with an impressive 35-14 win over Indiana and their offense looks
a bit better than it was a year ago. However, I think NC State's offense is overrated as
they averaged just 3.3 yards per rush and 7.1 yards per pass last season against a
schedule of teams that combined to allow an average of 3.9 ypr and 7.5 ypp on defense. My
ratings forecast only 23 points for the Wolfpack in this game against a solid Mustangs'
defense. The key to covering the spread in this game is for SMU to score a couple of
times against an NC State defense that is good defending both the run and the pass. SMU
was horrible against a similarly good TCU defense, and my ratings predict only 11 points
for the Mustangs in this game. SMU does qualify in a couple of strong early season
indicators, a 31-8 ATS underdog bounce-back situation and a 46-14-2 ATS home underdog
angle, so I will add a couple of points to their total. Also, NC State is 0-5 straight up
in their last 5 games as a road favorite and they may be looking ahead to next week's big
game with rival North Carolina.



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