Weather Headlines
Monday February 4, 2002
Pattern has a colder look to it this morning, while the Southern storm
track shows signs of action. Eastern ridge gone while arctic air tries to
reload to the Northwest.
This may be the first time this winter a forecast understates the cold
rather than overstates it. Part of it stems from the snowcover in the
Plains, but most of it simply did not give the European enough credit for
its SE rotation of a Canadian air mass. I do believe its transient though
with some moderation in order by midweek and the five day numbers taken as
a whole still are not that cold relative to normal. In many ways, this will
be similar to what happened in late December with the largest departures
from normal in the South. That will be due more from an active storm track
rather than any real intrusion of arctic air. Speaking of southern storms,
we see rain breaking out across much of Western and Northern Texas today.
This system will bring rain to much of the old South the next couple of
days. There is some potential for SE coastal development later in the week
which could be a Mid-Atlantic snow. But, I am more bullish on the next
system in the series which could be a big storm over the weekend. While its
turning colder in the East, often times we see a reversal in the West. That
does not appear to be the situation in this case. Cold air is trapped in
much of the region and the upper level flow is not favorable to scour this
out. A gradual moderation may occur, but it still looks below normal.
The main stories in the 6-10 day period is whether or not the storminess of
the European models and the cold showing up in the Canadian verify. The
most extreme solution obviously would be a combination of the two, but that
seems unlikely given the results of this winter so far. Of the two, I give
the storm proposition the most weight. It is possible the East coast could
see a sizeable snow out of all of this. As for the cold, the Canadian since
the middle of last week has been rebuilding pressures in the NW
territories. They become quite high this period, but are still North of the
border. It once again becomes a wait and see game to see if some of this
real arctic air can come down. That, I am not ready yet to commit to.
However, the overall pattern certainly looks colder than January did and
for many could run below normal this period.
For the period Monday February 4 through Friday February 8, expect the
following temperature trends:
Average 4 to 6-degrees below normal: Intermountain West ...
Average 1 to 3-degrees below normal: Desert SW, California, Gulf Coast,
Southeast, Northeast...
Average 1 to 3- degrees above normal: Great Lakes, Ohio and Mississippi
Valleys, Mid-Atlantic, Rockies, Southern Plains..
Average 4 to 6-degrees above normal: Northern and Central Plains...
Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist APB Energy / True Quote