i didnt mean to get so run over

 -----Original Message-----
From: 	epao@mba2002.hbs.edu@ENRON [mailto:IMCEANOTES-epao+40mba2002+2Ehbs+2Eedu+40ENRON@ENRON.com] 
Sent:	Friday, July 27, 2001 5:36 AM
To:	Arnold, John
Subject:	RE: first of all...

> okay, seriously.  you make good points on the intervention front.  however, i
do believe that the euro has suffered from public neglect from the ecb.  that
said, i'm unsure what form an intervention would take.

money flow. i agree that there has been good money flow into us from Japan,
Japan (through Europe), and Europe.  usd is a good safe haven, because if we
have troubles US should outperform, and the EU is untested.  this is why i am
uninterested in shorting the dollar.

the euro has also suffered from a japanese overhang.  when the euro was first
released, japanese bot up the euro with the expectation that other countries
would convert some of their reserves into the euro.  this has not been the case
and japan has been puking out their position.  however, there is a belief that
the selling is over.  (though, i'm not sure when this played out, or how to
check this story.  haven't found measure for money flow.  oh, bloomberg, how i
miss thee.)

so, i guess i still like it.  but who knows, i'm probably the mullet retail
investor that gets run over.  the currency market is very efficient.

pookums



me thinks the currency market has seen enough failed interventions that
> it shrugs off any intervention and may view it as a sign of weakness.
> me also thinks that until foreigners quit plowing all their money into
> the US the dollar should remain fairly strong.  however, if all the
> hedge funds are short which i assume they would be, the turnaround will
> be very quick.
>
> >  -----Original Message-----
> > From: 	"Eva Pao" <epao@mba2002.hbs.edu>@ENRON
> > [mailto:IMCEANOTES-+22Eva+20Pao+22+20+3Cepao+40mba2002+2Ehbs+2Eedu+3E+
> > 40ENRON@ENRON.com]
> > Sent:	Thursday, July 26, 2001 11:49 AM
> > To:	Arnold, John
> > Subject:	thanks, but
> >
> > i took macroecon also.  i'm not a proponent of open market
> > interventions.  i
> > am merely saying that its on the ecb radar screen and that measures
> > will be
> > taken to remedy a weak euro.  further, everything is psychological, a
> > signalling effect to move the market up is fine by me.  i think
> > overall YOU
> > have been extremely ineffective (just kidding, pooks).
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Arnold, John [mailto:John.Arnold@enron.com]
> > Sent: Thursday, July 26, 2001 9:23 AM
> > To: epao@mba2002.hbs.edu
> > Subject: RE: okay here's what i got on the euro...
> >
> >
> > I'm big seller of interventions.  they tend not to work.  if the gas
> > market wants to go lower, enron coming out and buying 10,000 contracts
> > is not going to stop the market from going down.  maybe in the short
> > term, but that's it.  same with currencies.  ECB can come out and
> > transfer some of its foreign reserves from dollars to Euros, but they
> > are limited by their currency reserves unless they want to act in the
> > futures market at which point they have to exit that position at some
> > point.  i think it is more psychological than anything.  i think
> > overall
> > market interventions have been extremely ineffective.
> >
> > >  -----Original Message-----
> > > From: 	"Eva Pao" <epao@mba2002.hbs.edu>@ENRON
> > >
> > [mailto:IMCEANOTES-+22Eva+20Pao+22+20+3Cepao+40mba2002+2Ehbs+2Eedu+3E+
> > > 40ENRON@ENRON.com]
> > > Sent:	Wednesday, July 25, 2001 10:51 PM
> > > To:	John Arnold
> > > Subject:	okay here's what i got on the euro...
> > >
> > > Here is a bio on my Business, Gov't & Int'l Economy prof.  He gave a
> > > presentation on the stuff he did for the European Central Bank the
> > > other
> > > day.  He reviewed why historically everyone looks to germany (i.e.
> > > Bubba) as
> > > a proxy for determining monetary policy in Europe.  Moreover, he
> > > explained
> > > why exchange rates were the focal point in determining monetary
> > policy
> > > in
> > > Germany.  With the new ECB, the bank heads are explicitly trying to
> > > remove
> > > public focus on exchange rates.  However, this effort may have led
> > to
> > > the
> > > belief by the financial community that the ECB does not care about/
> > > will not
> > > defend the euro.  He then stated that this is not true.  So, I'm
> > > thinking
> > > that downside is limited.  The performance of the euro has not gone
> > > unnoticed, especially given the critical EU goal of 2% inflation
> > p.a.
> > >
> > > ep
> > >
> > > Bio:
> > > Huw Pill is an Assistant Professor of Business Administration at the
> > > Graduate School of Business Administration, Harvard University,
> > where
> > > he
> > > teaches the first year required MBA course Business, Government and
> > > the
> > > International Economy.
> > > Having attended University College, he received an undergraduate
> > > degree in
> > > Politics, Philosophy and Economics from the University of Oxford in
> > > 1989. He
> > > received his doctorate from the Department of Economics at Stanford
> > > University in June 1995.
> > > From July 1998 until January 2001, Professor Pill was on leave from
> > > Harvard
> > > working at the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, where he was Head
> > > of the
> > > Strategic Policy Issues in the Bank's Directorate Monetary Policy.
> > > Prior to
> > > his appointment to the Harvard faculty in July 1995, Professor Pill
> > > worked
> > > in London as an economist in the Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy
> > > Group of
> > > the Bank of England's Economics Division (1990-92). He has also
> > worked
> > > at
> > > the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC (1994, 1995).
> > >
> > > Professor Pill's current research has two dimensions. On the one
> > hand,
> > > he is
> > > investigating the formulation and conduct of monetary policy in
> > > advanced
> > > economies, with a focus on the implementation of the single monetary
> > > policy
> > > in the euro area. On the other hand, he is studying the role of
> > > financial
> > > liberalization and innovation on macroeconomic fluctuations. The
> > > latter
> > > project focuses on the interaction between international capital
> > > flows,
> > > exchange rate management, structural economic reforms (especially in
> > > the
> > > financial sector) and macroeconomic performance in a variety of
> > > countries,
> > > including the United Kingdom, Indonesia and Mexico. The results of
> > > this
> > > research have been published in various professional journals and
> > > edited
> > > volumes.
> > >
> >
> >
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