A  good  heads up on Alliance..Margare
---------------------- Forwarded by Margaret Carson/Corp/Enron on 12/13/2000 
05:19 PM ---------------------------
Market Intelligence - Enron Transportation Services
From: Lorna Brennan on 12/13/2000 01:23 PM
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cc:  
Subject: Alliance May Test the System Up to 1.5 BCF/d in Next Two Weeks

Strong Demand Holds Load Factors High Despite Alliance

The introduction of the 1.325 Bcf/d Alliance Pipeline into the North American 
gas market appears to have had less of an impact on gas flows out of western 
Canada than expected, according to representatives of TransCanada PipeLines, 
PG&E Gas Transmission and Alliance. Extremely strong gas demand in the 
Pacific Northwest, California and in the Midwest has produced continued high 
load factors on TransCanada and PG&E GT-NW despite the presence of their huge 
new rival for Western Canadian supply. 

"The contract picture changed significantly on [TransCanada] since the first 
of November and primarily at our Empress, AB, delivery point into the 
TransCanada mainline from the Alberta pipe, but actual physical gas flows [at 
about 6 Bcf/d] have not changed correspondingly," said Klaus Exner, director 
of pipeline system operations at TransCanada. "The big picture overview that 
I would give you is that demand is very high in the Pacific Northwest and 
California and we continue to run at the highest possible load factor down 
that leg of our pipeline system out of Alberta, through British Columbia and 
into the PG&E systems. That hasn't let up at all and we don't foresee that 
letting up." 

PG&E Gas Transmission Spokeswoman Sandra McDonough said PG&E GT-NW has been 
running full at 2.6 Bcf/d for some time and is delivering 900 MMcf/d to 
non-California load in the Pacific Northwest. "We're turning back demand 
right now. Every power plant in this region is running full tilt. Tuscarora 
[Gas Transmission], the Nevada pipeline, is full. Our Northwest deliveries 
are fixed. We're delivering as much as we can deliver right now." 

TransCanada's other major export route out of the Western Canadian 
Sedimentary Basin is the Foothills and Northern Border route into the 
Midwest. It also continues to operate at high load factors. "We didn't see a 
huge drop-off in physical flows post Nov. 1. We've seen the IT volumes come 
up considerably," said Exner. "The one thing that has changed is the 
volatility of the flows. Customers are making frequent intraday nomination 
changes and we're seeing more up and down and day-to-day variations, 
according to the weather and the markets, than we would have when we had a 
higher firm contract level. The fluctuations are driven purely by the price 
differential between AECO and the Dawn Hub in Ontario, which indicates 
whether or not interruptible flow on the mainline is in the money or not." 

Alliance Pipeline spokesman Jack Crawford said the system has been running 
flat out at about 1.325 Bcf/d since the valves were opened for commercial 
service Dec. 1. He also said the pipeline soon would be testing to increase 
flows on the system. It has been estimated that Alliance could increase gas 
flows to 1.5 Bcf/d with existing compression. The additional capacity would 
be divided up among existing shippers, Crawford said. "We haven't cranked up 
the system above the contract capacity yet. We probably won't do that for a 
couple weeks until we get things ironed out. Frankly though, I'm not sure 
Chicago is their best market right now given the pricing in the Pacific 
Northwest and California." 


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