Morning Report for Monday, June 4, 2001

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Winners and Losers

By Paul Shread (mailto:pshread@internet.com)

June 4, 2001 - After April's stunning gains that continued right up until
late May, the Nasdaq and ISDEX somehow managed to finish the month of May
unchanged.

After peaking at 2328 on May 22, the Nasdaq fell 9% to end the month at
2110, six points lower than where it began the month. And the ISDEX
dropped 16% from its May 22 peak of 302 to close May 31 at 252, four
points lower than where it traded on May 1.

Under the circumstances, it's not surprising that there were only three
ISDEX stocks (out of 50) that ended May with price changes of greater than
30% from where they began the month. But the stock that topped the index
in May was a surprise: financial services applications firm S1
(NASDAQ:SONE) soared 58% after topping earnings estimates and predicting
that it will be in the black on an EBITDA basis by the end of the year.

The other two big ISDEX movers were to the downside. Portal Software
(NASDAQ:PRSF) plunged 39% on an earnings warning, and former high-flyer
Ariba (NASDAQ:ARBA) lost 31% on concern about the viability of its
business model. The number five loser in May was also a B2B stock,
Commerce One (NASDAQ:CMRC), which dropped 28%. The struggles of Ariba and
Commerce One make i2 Technologies' (NASDAQ:ITWO) 15% gain last month worth
noting.

Another surprise in May was that the bottom of the list was populated by
stocks that until recently were - or still are - thought of as leaders.
Palm (NASDAQ:PALM) lost 29% in May on an earnings warning, but rebounded
smartly Friday on management assertions that business is improving. And
Juniper Networks (NASDAQ:JNPR), one of the greatest performers in
1999-2000, also lost 29% in May, as worries about the abysmal state of
telecom equipment spending began to spread to the stocks whose
fundamentals are still holding up.

On the upside, resurgent GoTo.com (NASDAQ:GOTO) came in second in May with
a gain of 28%. On top of the stock's 141% gain that led all ISDEX stocks
in April, the pay-per-click search service bears watching.

Rounding out the rest of the top five were: takeover candidate Ameritrade
(NASDAQ:AMTD), up 26%; Vignette (NASDAQ:VIGN), up 22% on optimism over new
products and positive analyst comments; and eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY), up 20%,
the one dot-com that has not only survived, but thrived.

Finally, a quick technical look at the ISDEX. The index broke out of an
inverse head and shoulders bottom on April 18 (see chart below) at 227.
With a head at 159 and a neckline at 227, the index had 68 points of
upside potential, which it exceeded by 7 points at its 302 peak. To the
downside, 242 is first support, and 227 is critical support. To the
upside, key resistance is 300-302. If the index turns back in the 292
range, it could be forming a head and shoulders top.



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