Hi Folks,

Here's how I see the matchups this week.

PLEASE NOTE:   See the cheatsheets online at www.footballguys.com  for
exactly where I rank players and to determine who to start.   I always
receive emails asking me how I can have a guy ranked highly on the
cheatsheet but listed under a matchup that favors the Defense.   Just
because one matchup may be more favorable than another, that doesn't
necessarily mean I'd start the player with the best matchup.   Peyton
Manning may have a horrible matchup one week but unless you're sitting on
Kurt Warner or Daunte Culpepper, Manning's your guy no matter who he's
lining up against.   The matchup info is meant to be just one more tool in
your box when it comes to deciding between players.

Note:  I've used the player stats sorted by performance over the last four
weeks extensively in developing these write-ups. Stats are provided by Mike
Hall's excellent FLM League Management Software.  http://www.fflm.com/ for
more info.
Let's get to it.

Joe

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Locks:  These games feature Defenses that should be overmatched against the
Offense.


New Orleans Passing Game vs Atlanta Defense

A good dose of the Atlanta Defense may be just what New Orleans and QB Aaron
Brooks needed.   The Falcons are awful ranking # 31 in Passing Yards Allowed
Per Game over the last four weeks.   They rank # 29 in Fantasy Points
Allowed to QBs.   Brooks will be throwing to WRs Joe Horn and Willie
Jackson.   Albert Connell is there but not a big factor.   Of course, the
biggest news from last week was the awakening of TE Cam Cleeland.   He could
play a big role if he get's fired up.


Green Bay Passing Game vs Minnesota Defense

You have little choice but to start Brett Favre.   Last week, he hung 3 TDs
on the Ravens so I think he can handle the Vikings.   WR Antonio Freeman
awoke from a slumber and did it in a big way.   The question of the week is
can he continue?   Part of his success can be attributed to his public
demand for more passes (which Favre said he approved of and made good on his
promises to target Freeman more)   Although an ankle injury to WR Bill
Schroeder was no doubt a factor as well.   It looks like Schroeder will play
but the ankle is still sore.   If Schroeder can go, both look to be a good
start against the Viking's defense ranked # 28 in Passing Yards Allowed Per
Game over the last four weeks.   They're also # 28 in Fantasy Points Allowed
to WRs.   TE Bubba Franks is a must start as it seems every pass he catches
is for a TD.


Jacksonville Passing Game vs Buffalo Defense

After a hot start, it seems like it's been forever since the Jaguars have
scored a passing TD.   That should change this week as they face a soft
Buffalo Defense that ranks # 25 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the
last four weeks.   They're even worse when it comes to Fantasy Points
Allowed to QBs ranking # 28.   Pretty much all the Jaguar skill positions
look good here.   WRs Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell are must starts.
They'll be too much for Cornerbacks Ken Irvin and Antoine Winfield.   TE
Kyle Brady is a nice play here too.   He was the target of 5 passes in week
4.


Kansas City Passing Game vs Arizona Defense

A game against Arizona may be just what the disappointing Chiefs need.
Trent Green's been nowhere near as good as everyone (including us) hoped but
I'm not sure it's all his fault.   He's had trouble keeping a WR Corps
healthy and teams are doubling and tripling TE Tony Gonzalez, their best
player.   Priest Holmes has put a spark in the running game and that'll
help.   WR Derrick Alexander only caught one pass last week but he had 8
thrown his way so he's getting the opportunities.   He'll likely make much
better use of his chances this week against a Cardinal team that ranks # 22
in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks.   They rank # 26
in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs so Green could break out as well.


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Prime Matchups:  These games feature Defenses that should have trouble
stopping the Offense.


Tennessee Passing Game vs Detroit Defense

Steve McNair awoke last week and played a very solid game against Tampa Bay
throwing for 230 yards and 1 TD.   He'll have a much easier time this week
against a Lion team that's hurting in the secondary.   Detroit ranks # 13 in
Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks but they're
vulnerable.  They rank # 29 in Fantasy Points Allowed to WRs.   WR Kevin
Dyson is probably the best bet for WRs.   Derrick Mason is still nursing a
bad ankle and his status isn't clear yet.   Chris Sanders could see time too
and he's been targeted some lately.   Of course, the favorite receiver is
still TE Frank Wycheck.


St. Louis Passing Game vs New York Jets Defense

Just start your Rams.   Warner, Holt, Bruce and probably Hakim and TE
Conwell all deserve starting status.   Until I see it again, I'm calling the
Giants game of last week an aberration.   The Jets defense ranks # 20 in
Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks but I'd start these
guys against the AFC Pro Bowl Team.


Pittsburgh Passing Game vs Tampa Bay Defense

This could be an ugly game for the Steeler passing game.   Tampa plays
primarily zone defense which means Stewart will be forced to pick his spots
from the pocket.   And we all know, the pocket is no friend to Stewart who
is best when he can run a little.   Man coverage allows a QB more freedom to
tuck and run with defenders in coverage.   He will face a tough Defense with
the talent to hold down WRs Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress.   On the plus
side, Tampa's given up a lot of yards to the passing game though ranking #
30 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks.   They rank #
23 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs so the potential is there for Stewart to
do something, I'm just not sure what it'll be .


Carolina Passing Game vs Washington Defense

QB Chris Weinke gets better each week.   Is he playing well enough to carry
your team right now?   Probably not.   But he might start getting there.
The Redskins  rank # 24 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four
weeks.   Weinke's primary targets will be WR Muhsin Muhammad and TE Wesley
Walls.   Both should have decent opportunities this week.   On the upside,
Washington Cornerback Fred Smoot will likely be limited if he even plays
with a bad knee.


Denver Passing Game vs San Diego Defense

QB Brian Griese has complained of shoulder pain all week and missed early
practices but says he'll play Sunday.   Gus Frerotte will go if Griese
can't.   Good luck getting a straight answer out of Skeletor Shanahan (love
that guy) but if I had to guess, I'd play him.   Weigh it out though if you
have another solid option of course.   The Chargers are looking suddenly
very beatable after New England's Tom Brady hung 364 yards and 2 TDs on
them.   The key will be Eddie Kennison staying on a roll.   He takes the
incredible pressure off Rod Smith and can stretch the defense keeping Safety
Rodney Harrison back where he belongs and off the line.   San Diego ranks #
18 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks but can
definitely be thrown on.


Detroit Passing Game vs Tennessee Defense

What got into Charlie Batch?   Whatever it is, let's hope he can keep it up.
He posted some great numbers last week with 345 yards, 3 TDs and most
importantly, 0 interceptions.   He'll try to keep it rolling against a
suspect Titan defense that's ranked # 27 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game
over the last four weeks.   They're ranked # 24 in Fantasy Points Allowed to
QBs.   Cornerback Samari Rolle is out again and that hurts.   Germane
Crowell may not know when to run out of bounds but he can rack up the yards.
Look for him to do it again.   Johnnie Morton will man the other spot and do
well.   In minor news, it looks like Herman Moore is done for the year with
a torn muscle in his hip.


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Even Matchups:  These games feature no real advantage either way


Washington Passing Game vs Carolina Defense

Are you really down to this?   If so, Tony Banks may be ok this week.
Carolina ranks # 26 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four
weeks.   And they're the worst team in the league in Fantasy Points Allowed
to QBs.   Still though, I hate to think I'm putting too much faith in these
guys.   WR Rod Gardner is getting more looks than anyone at this point.
Michael Westbrook scored last week and maybe he can build on that.   TE
Stephen Alexander is out with a bad ankle.


San Diego Passing Game vs Denver Defense

Flutie's fun to watch but make sure to understand this team is about RB
LaDainian Tomlinson.   I hear some comparisons to Denver's John Elway
finding a young Terrell Davis but this isn't the same.   Flutie just won't
put up the stats consistently.   Curtis Conway, Tim Dwight and Jeff Graham
are all seeing about the same amount of work and that makes it tough to pick
one.   Unfortunately, TE Freddie Jones has been very inconsistent and
frustrating for his owners.   I'm not sure that will change.   The Broncos
are pretty solid against the pass ranking # 12 in Passing Yards Allowed Per
Game over the last four weeks.  They rank # 11 in Fantasy Points Allowed to
QBs.


Philadelphia Passing Game vs New York Giants Defense

With a week off to prepare, look for the Eagles to come out firing.
Somewhat like Green Bay did last week against Baltimore, look for them to
focus on the pass against a defense that is extremely good against the run.
They'll have their work cut out for them though.   The Giants pass defense
has been up and down.   Of course, lately, they've been very up holding the
high flying Rams to a mere mortal 15 points and no passing TDs.   That's
strong.   But they rank just # 18 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the
last four weeks.   They're a little tougher on QBs ranking # 10 in Fantasy
Points Allowed to QBs.   Donovan McNabb has two solid under rated WRs in
Todd Pinkston and James Thrash that can stretch the field.   TE Chad Lewis
has been seeing a lot of balls thrown his way and could do damage here.


New England Passing Game vs Indianapolis Defense

Tom Brady continues to impress as he gains confidence in the system.   He'll
go against the Colts this week who have to be wondering where their Super
Bowl aspirations have gone.   The key in my opinion is WR Terry Glenn who
brings an entirely new dimension to this team.   Brady threw the ball his
way 14 times last week.   Troy Brown is a quiet option but he gets a ton of
targets (16 last week)   The Colts rank # 14 in Passing Yards Allowed Per
Game over the last four weeks but rank # 8 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs.


Chicago Passing Game vs Cincinnati Defense

I'm looking for Jim Miller to bounce back from an awful game last week
against Arizona.   The Bengal defense is pretty solid ranking # 8 in Passing
Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks.   They'll be without
Cornerback Rodney Heath.   Corner Robert Bean is probable with a leg injury
so he's likely less than 100%.   The Bengals rank # 18 in Fantasy Points
Allowed to QBs so that's some encouragement.   WR Marcus Robinson will have
a size advantage on the Bengal Corners and watch for Marty Booker who was
the target of more passes last week than was Robinson.


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Downside Matchups:  These games feature a Defense that could pose trouble
for the Offense.


New York Jets Passing Game vs St. Louis Defense

With every passing week, it becomes more and more clear that this "new"
offense is really just a slightly different way to get Curtis Martin the
ball.   And that's the smart move for Jet's fans.   Vinny Testeverde draws a
pretty tough matchup this week in the Rams who rank # 9 in Passing Yards
Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks.  They rank # 19 in in Fantasy
Points Allowed to QBs.   Laveranues Coles has been getting plenty of looks
and is a good play.   Wayne Chrebet will handle the intermediate stuff as he
always does.


Atlanta Passing Game vs New Orleans Defense

Chris Chandler still has plenty left in the tank (as long as he can protect
his head)   The Saints could cause trouble with an aggressive blitzing
defense that's recorded 12 sacks already.   That Super Dome floor isn't much
softer than the carpet covered concrete of the Georgia Dome so injury is
always a worry.   New Orleans is tough ranking # 11 in Passing Yards Allowed
Per Game over the last four weeks.   They rank # 13 in Fantasy Points
Allowed to QBs.   Look for Chandler to focus on Terance Mathis and Shawn
Jefferson as he did last week although Jefferson is risky listed as
questionable with ankle / toe problems.


Buffalo Passing Game vs Jacksonville Defense

Will the week off benefit Rob Johnson?   I really don't know.   You know by
now that I'm down on Johnson.   He does have two potentially very good WRs
though in Eric Moulds and Peerless Price.   Both have underachieved this
season and it's hard to know whether to blame them or Johnson.
Jacksonville is average defending the pass ranking # 15 in Passing Yards
Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks.   They're much tougher in
shutting down QBs though as they rank # 2 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs.
Cornerback Fernando Bryant is Questionable with a bad foot and that'll be a
big plus for the Bills if he can't go.


Cincinnati Passing Game vs Chicago Defense

It may not seem like a big deal, but the Bengals will miss WR Chad Johnson
who's out with a broken collarbone.   He was a true deep threat that took
heat off of Darnay Scott and freed up Peter Warrick underneath.   We'll see
how they work without him.   Jon Kitna continues to play a Trent Dilfer like
"good enough to win" game and I don't see that changing a lot.   The Bengals
would love to get games like last week's 201 yard, 1 TD and 0 interception
(the biggie) out of Kitna.   This offense is all about RB Corey Dillon.
The Bears are tougher against the run than they are the pass.   Chicago
ranks # 19 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks.
They bring a tough pass rush with 11 sacks in their last 3 games.   All in
all, a pretty tough matchup.


Cleveland Passing Game vs Baltimore Defense

Green Bay showed last week one way to beat Baltimore was to concede the
running game and focus on throwing the ball.   That's fine as long as you
have Brett Favre under center.   Tim Couch may one day be very good, but
he's a long ways from Favre today.   The Ravens rank # 10 in Passing Yards
Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks so they can be thrown on.   Kevin
Johnson has been hot for the Browns and Quincy Morgan is getting almost as
many balls thrown his way as Johnson.   The Ravens bring two very good
Cornerbacks in Duane Starks and Chris McAlister that'll make it a tough game
for the Browns.


Indianapolis Passing Game vs New England Defense

If you can afford to bench Peyton Manning, you're deep enough at QB that you
don't need our help.   The Patriots are pretty tough ranking # 7 in Passing
Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks.   They also rank # 6 in
Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs.   I'd still start Manning unless I had a
great option though.   He's just too liable to have a great game against
anyone.   Same for Marvin Harrison.   Jerome Pathon is still very iffy for
this week and I'd avoid.   Rookie Reggie Wayne is still learning the ropes
and had 3 passes thrown his way last week.  I'm not counting on a whole lot
yet from him.


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Defensive Slam Dunks:  These games feature a very tough Defense posing major
problems for the Offense.


Tampa Bay Passing Game vs Pittsburgh Defense

Must be something in the Nashville water that awoke both Steve McNair and
Brad Johnson last week.   Johnson finally listened to Keyshawn and threw him
the ball 17 times Sunday.   Both Johnsons had strong games and hopefully the
light flicked on for Brad Johnson.   Jacquez Green had several looks but
clearly, this is a Johnson and Johnson team now.   The Steelers are very
tough against the pass ranking # 3 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over
the last four weeks.   They rank # 3 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs as
well so it's pretty clear that it's a tough matchup for the Bucs.


New York Giants Passing Game vs Philadelphia Defense

After a heartbreaking loss to the Rams, the Giants face a very tough Eagle
pass defense that's ranked # 1 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the
last four weeks.   They rank # 5 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs so it'll
be tough going for the Giants here.   QB Kerry Collins hasn't been anything
special lately and look for the Eagles to continue their huge array of
blitzes that they love.   He'll be throwing to Amani Toomer who needs to
pick up the pace he started with early.   Ike Hilliard is back but still not
seeing as many passes thrown his way as Joe Jurevicius.


Minnesota Passing Game vs Green Bay Defense

For all the anti Viking talk, Culpepper continues to post some excellent
Fantasy Stats.   His rushing TDs are huge in many scoring systems.   Of
course, the big question this week is the health of Randy Moss' ankle.
Coach Denny Green came out this week and said Moss has been limited by the
effects of his ankle sprain suffered before his rookie season.   I
personally would come up with something better than that...   Denny Green is
a player's coach and it wouldn't surprise me at all if this were primarily a
protection move for his star WR.   I'd fully expect Moss to play but
certainly, he's a risk.   The Packers are very tough against the pass
ranking # 4 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks.
They're also # 4 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs.   With RB Michael Bennett
out this week, the Vikings will likely be throwing all day so you know
they'll be getting the opportunities.   It's a very tough matchup though.


Arizona Passing Game vs Kansas City Defense

Plummer's always a roll of the dice and this week isn't any different.
He'll face a KC defense that's very tough statistically against the pass
ranking # 3 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks.
When it comes to Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs, they rank # 7.   David
Boston is clearly Plummer's best option and he'll match up pretty well with
the Chiefs.  MarTay Jenkins and Frank Sanders will see some action but
you'll be hard pressed to start them I'd think.   Probably a risky matchup
this week for a Cardinal team that's suspect in talent to begin with.


Baltimore Passing Game vs Cleveland Defense

Elvis Grbac returned back to reality last week with a disappointing game
against the Packers.   He was held to 138 yards, 1 TD and 2 Interceptions
also suffering a neck injury / concussion.   He's listed as probable and
should improve upon those numbers this week but not by a lot.   The Browns
are tough against the pass ranking # 6 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game
over the last four weeks.   More impressively, they rank # 1 in Fantasy
Points Allowed to QBs.   Cornerbacks Daylon McCutcheon and Corey Fuller
should do a pretty nice job of matching up with WRs Travis Taylor and Qadry
Ismail.   Of course, Shannon Sharpe is always a threat.   Bottom line, this
is a tough matchup for Baltimore.


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