Syncrasy - Weather for Business
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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com       Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com  - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com  - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com     Data last updated: Thursday, Dec 20, 2001 at 09:04AM ET    Commentary last updated: Thursday, Dec 20, 2001 at 09:14AM ET  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote    Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMSor Aquila  Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'    Today: Thursday, December 20, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 38 +1 ERCOT(SP) 64 +1 FRCC(SE) 68 +1 MAAC(NE) 45 +1 MAIN(CTR) 40 +1 MAPP(HP) 35 NC NPCC(NE) 39 +1 SERC(SE) 55 +1 SPP(SP) 56 +1 WSCC(NW) 41 +2 WSCC(RK) 41 -1 WSCC(SW) 55 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 34 39 37 35 52 54 49 Max 40 41 42 41 44 59 64 56 Min 29 29 36 35 30 48 45 46 Range 11 12 6 6 14 11 19 10 StD-P 2.8 4.2 1.4 1.4 3.6 3.3 5.3 3.0 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:   Important storm about to hit the West coast. By the time it exits the East for Christmas, a moderate arctic airmass should have finally invaded much of the Eastern two thirds of the U.S.  The air behind the storm now exiting the NE turned out to be a little colder than expected as 20's and 30's are widespread this morning even down to the Gulf Coast. The first real Lake Effect snows of the season are underway in the Eastern Lakes. Sunshine farther West will modify this airmass to near if not slightly above normal this afternoon. But, it is a part of a stepping down in temperatures that has gradually occurred over the last week to 10 days. That pattern should continue as Canadian highs are lined up to our NW and I still expect each one to be progressively colder into early January. The next storm is plowin! g into the West Coast today with rain this morning well South into Central California. This system should emerge into Colorado tomorrow with a weekend track to the NE toward the Great Lakes then East from there. I do expect some Christmas weekend snows in the Northern fringes of this storm, but more real estate will see rain rather than snow. A below normal plunge of air should follow this storm by Christmas as ridging rapidly develops in the West deepening a trough into the East. Five day temperature numbers still reflect an above normal bias as we see one final warmup the next 2-3 days before the colder air strikes late in the period.   Tomorrow: Friday, December 21, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 36 -3 ERCOT(SP) 66 +3 FRCC(SE) 69 NC MAAC(NE) 40 -1 MAIN(CTR) 38 -4 MAPP(HP) 34 -2 NPCC(NE) 32 NC SERC(SE) 56 +1 SPP(SP) 57 NC WSCC(NW) 38 +3 WSCC(RK) 36 +4 WSCC(SW) 52 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 37 34 36 32 54 60 48 Max 37 40 42 41 43 61 67 54 Min 29 30 30 33 27 48 55 43 Range 8 10 12 8 16 13 12 11 StD-P 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.4 5.0 3.4 2.8 3.9 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Saturday, December 22, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 46 -1 ERCOT(SP) 65 +3 FRCC(SE) 73 -1 MAAC(NE) 42 -2 MAIN(CTR) 44 +4 MAPP(HP) 28 +1 NPCC(NE) 34 -2 SERC(SE) 58 -1 SPP(SP) 49 +4 WSCC(NW) 39 -1 WSCC(RK) 28 +2 WSCC(SW) 52 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 39 30 30 36 26 56 59 48 Max 42 38 37 39 39 60 63 52 Min 36 25 24 33 18 53 55 44 Range 6 13 13 6 21 7 8 8 StD-P 1.2 2.9 3.4 1.8 5.4 2.2 2.6 2.9 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 4: Sunday, December 23, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 41 -2 ERCOT(SP) 56 +2 FRCC(SE) 75 NC MAAC(NE) 48 +1 MAIN(CTR) 30 -2 MAPP(HP) 20 NC NPCC(NE) 40 +1 SERC(SE) 55 -1 SPP(SP) 39 NC WSCC(NW) 40 -1 WSCC(RK) 31 +2 WSCC(SW) 54 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 23 38 37 24 59 50 50 Max 39 29 43 40 32 61 63 53 Min 29 17 36 34 14 57 38 44 Range 10 12 7 6 18 4 25 9 StD-P 2.7 3.6 1.8 2.1 4.9 1.1 6.5 2.7 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 5: Monday, December 24, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 32 -4 ERCOT(SP) 52 +1 FRCC(SE) 70 NC MAAC(NE) 44 -5 MAIN(CTR) 26 -3 MAPP(HP) 18 -5 NPCC(NE) 40 NC SERC(SE) 50 NC SPP(SP) 41 +3 WSCC(NW) 40 -4 WSCC(RK) 31 -4 WSCC(SW) 54 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 25 24 39 39 24 52 44 50 Max 30 28 43 43 33 60 55 55 Min 20 20 36 36 14 47 30 44 Range 10 8 7 7 19 13 25 11 StD-P 3.3 2.6 2.1 1.9 5.4 3.3 6.9 3.5 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:  With model consistency on my side, I am confident that this 6-10 day forecast period will verify colder than normal for much of the East. If it does, it will be the first period in over two months that runs cold. Relative to normal, it may not be as significant as some of the warmer departures have been, but it should get some attention. There are some differences on where the heart of the cold sets up. I believe it will tend to be more on the Plains rather than the East Coast. But all models in this time frame have a strong ridge West/trough East signature on them. One additional surprise could be a Southern jet stream storm. I don't see anything particularly ominous yet, but the setup suggests something could be in the offing.    Day 6: Tuesday, December 25, 2001  Click Herefor Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information.  Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 30 -4 ERCOT(SP) 53 -1 FRCC(SE) 66 +1 MAAC(NE) 39 -2 MAIN(CTR) 22 -10 MAPP(HP) 14 -13 NPCC(NE) 36 -3 SERC(SE) 46 -1 SPP(SP) 35 -7 WSCC(NW) 40 -3 WSCC(RK) 31 -5 WSCC(SW) 55 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 22 22 34 38 25 46 42 50 Max 28 28 40 41 33 54 51 55 Min 17 15 29 35 14 41 33 45 Range 11 13 11 6 19 13 18 10 StD-P 3.6 3.6 3.3 2.0 5.3 3.8 5.8 3.3 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Wednesday, December 26, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 28 -7 ERCOT(SP) 54 -2 FRCC(SE) 64 -1 MAAC(NE) 36 -4 MAIN(CTR) 23 -9 MAPP(HP) 17 -11 NPCC(NE) 32 -4 SERC(SE) 44 -4 SPP(SP) 37 -8 WSCC(NW) 40 -2 WSCC(RK) 31 -5 WSCC(SW) 55 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 21 23 31 37 26 42 42 50 Max 27 28 36 42 35 48 50 56 Min 15 17 27 34 20 36 33 46 Range 12 11 9 8 15 12 17 10 StD-P 3.5 3.6 2.5 2.9 5.3 3.9 6.2 3.5 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 8: Thursday, December 27, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 18 -6 ERCOT(SP) 48 +4 FRCC(SE) 53 -1 MAAC(NE) 25 -6 MAIN(CTR) 16 -7 MAPP(HP) 10 -11 NPCC(NE) 25 -8 SERC(SE) 34 -3 SPP(SP) 29 -6 WSCC(NW) 30 -5 WSCC(RK) 15 -5 WSCC(SW) 44 -6     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 21 23 29 36 23 43 46 49 Max 26 31 33 41 34 49 52 56 Min 14 17 24 30 14 38 38 43 Range 12 14 9 11 20 11 14 13 StD-P 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.2 5.8 3.7 4.6 4.0 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Friday, December 28, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 19 +1 ERCOT(SP) 41 -2 FRCC(SE) 60 +3 MAAC(NE) 23 -1 MAIN(CTR) 15 -2 MAPP(HP) 8 -10 NPCC(NE) 21 -4 SERC(SE) 37 +1 SPP(SP) 25 -5 WSCC(NW) 30 -6 WSCC(RK) 13 -8 WSCC(SW) 46 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 20 20 28 34 23 45 43 50 Max 27 31 35 40 34 51 53 56 Min 14 12 21 29 14 40 37 46 Range 13 19 14 11 20 11 16 10 StD-P 4.1 6.5 4.7 3.0 5.4 3.4 4.5 3.0 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 10: Saturday, December 29, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 18 +5 ERCOT(SP) 43 +4 FRCC(SE) 62 +6 MAAC(NE) 24 +8 MAIN(CTR) 14 NC MAPP(HP) 6 -14 NPCC(NE) 23 +7 SERC(SE) 35 +3 SPP(SP) 22 -11 WSCC(NW) 27 -4 WSCC(RK) 3 -14 WSCC(SW) 46 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 15 13 25 28 11 39 36 41 Max 21 19 29 33 18 40 39 47 Min 12 6 22 26 5 37 30 34 Range 9 13 7 7 13 3 9 13 StD-P 2.6 5.5 2.2 1.7 4.4 1.0 2.7 5.5 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.comor    www.apbenergy.comor www.truequote.com   [IMAGE]