Dear All,

Yesterday, I mentioned to Vince the inhouse modelling capabilities and the 
impact weather and the weather forecast can have on some of Enron's 
operations and Risk Management positions. For this reason I have attached 
three files, two of those show to tropical cyclones off the coasts of 
Australia, i.e. Rachel and Drena. Tropical cyclones pose a significant risk, 
and an early warning system can be part of a better risk strategy. 
Please, note that the modelling system has been further improved since the 
simulation was done. 

Also, we can focus on another large problem and associated risk. Dust storms 
can pose a significant risk to a number of industries, and the prediction 
of such events has been very difficult, if not impossible. For this reason a 
GIS database has been developed and coupled to the NWP model, which 
allows prediction of such events in realtime. For the depicted event an 
estimated 6 million tonnes of top soil was lost, and with it $$. 

Maybe we can set up a conference call to discuss

* the above mentioned points
* further improvments in forecasting based on the high resolution forecasts
* weather and climate on a global perspective for Enron
* how to further improve the forecast for Enron

Regards,
Christian 

PS: I tried to sent of this e-mail last night, but their appears to be a 
limit of 10Mb, so I will send off the individual files....