Title: Quarterly Refined Products Watch: After the Shock--Uncertain Prospects for Recovery
URL(s):

http://www.cera.com/eprofile?u=35&m=2820;


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SHARPLY WEAKER DEMAND AND GROWING STOCKS TO DAMPEN REFINING MARGINS

Spot refining margins are likely to experience sustained weakness for the
balance of 2001 and into 2002, under the influence of

*  weakening refined product demand resulting from the global economic
slowdown, significant cutbacks in airline flight schedules, and the outlook for
much lower North American natural gas prices this winter

*  the likelihood of growing crude oil and product stocks as OPEC confronts the
growing challenging of continuing to manage the market in the face of rapidly
slowing demand and growing non-OPEC productive capacity

The only significant upside risk to margins in the near term lies in events--
possibly linked to new terrorist attacks or the ongoing military campaign--that
could disrupt the oil supply chain.

**end**

Follow above URL for complete report (53 printed pages).

E-mail Category: Watch
CERA Knowledge Area(s): Global Oil


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