Kim to bring you up to date on where we are on this. 
Thanks
RJ
---------------------- Forwarded by Rich Jolly/ET&S/Enron on 10/03/2001 09:37 AM ---------------------------
From:	Gary Choquette/ENRON@enronXgate on 10/03/2001 09:46 AM CDT
To:	Darrell Schoolcraft/ENRON@enronXgate, Rich Jolly/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Rick Smith/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, David Roensch/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Todd Ingalls/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, DL-ETS Gas Controllers@/O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=DL-ETSGASCONTROLLERS@EX@enronXgate, Dale Ratliff/ENRON@enronXgate
cc:	Ben Asante/ENRON@enronXgate, Kim Kouri/ENRON@enronXgate, Bob McChane/ENRON@enronXgate, John Sturn/ET&S/Enron@ENRON, Errol Wirasinghe/ENRON@enronXgate 

Subject:	RE: FW: Gallup Peak Power Avoidance Data Points

As I understand/interpret the Gallup contract, we can completely avoid electrical power demand charges (approximately $42,000 per month) if we do not run the unit during the power utilities peak power period.  If we can not shut down the unit, we can still reduce or demand costs by minimizing our power usage during the peak period.

Unlike Hubbard where the contract states avoiding the peak during a specified period of the day (5-7 PM), Gallup requires us to guess both the day of the month their peak will occur and the time of day.  Through access to Tri-States history data, I can guess what I think the minimum peak for the month will be.  I can look at the current day's usage and estimate if today's peak will be higher than the higher of (1) my estimated peak or (2) the actual peak so far this month.  If so, the "Probability today is a peak" will be near 100 indicating the operators they should expect a possible power peak sometime today.   The "Probability now is peak" approached 100 when an actual peak is underway.  The Tri-State Power Peak In Progress alarm triggers when a power peak is underway.

Note that it is impossible to predict with 100% accuracy if any day in the month is an actual power peak.  If the first day of the month has an estimated peak 1000 and last years peak for the same month, was 985.  It appears possible that this will be a power peak day.  Assume that the actual peak usage for the first day was 1010.  Now on the second day of the month, the estimated peak is 965, not likely to be a power peak day.  The third day has an estimated peak of 1005, a possible power peak day.  If the actual for the third day is 1012, it now becomes the new peak for the month.  If all other estimated peaks in the month are significantly below 1012, they are not likely to be power peaks, and unit turndown is not required.

The point is, to completely avoid demand charges, we would have had to shut down the unit for a period on the first day of the month, and also on the third day.  The utility integrates their peak over a 30 minute period, thus the minimum time the unit could be down.  I'm guessing that my utility could predict around seven peaks requiring turndown in a given month.

So far this month, I guessed a power peak on 10/1/01 starting at 20:18 and ending at 21:05.  The actual peak so far this month according to the utility was 10/1/01 starting at 20:30 lasting to 21:00.


I'm sorry for any confusion.  I had asked Dale to pass this information on to the Operators.  If there are any additional questions, do not hesitate to call me at 87-7546.

 -----Original Message-----
From: 	Schoolcraft, Darrell  
Sent:	Wednesday, October 03, 2001 6:43 AM
To:	Choquette, Gary; Jolly, Rich; Smith, Rick; Roensch, David; Ingalls, Todd; DL-ETS Gas Controllers
Subject:	FW: FW: Gallup Peak Power Avoidance Data Points

Gary would you please respond to their question as it is our concern as well.

ds

 -----Original Message-----
From: 	Gallup, Team  
Sent:	Tuesday, October 02, 2001 4:26 PM
To:	Jolly, Rich; Smith, Rick; Roensch, David; Ingalls, Todd; Schoolcraft, Darrell
Subject:	Re: FW: Gallup Peak Power Avoidance Data Points

Rich / Rick,

Operations & the Gas Controllers didn't know about this till yesterday, when alarms started to appear in Houston.
I'm not sure what is expected from operations. In the last paragraph of Gary's letter, he indicates shutting down
for 30 minutes, 7 times a month. Is that what he is saying? Let us know what you find out.

Thanks,
Korey





 << OLE Object: Picture (Device Independent Bitmap) >> 
"Sayegh, Angela" <Angela.Sayegh@ENRON.com> on 10/02/2001 02:37:07 PM
To:	"DL-ETS Gas Controllers" <DL-ETSGasControllers@ENRON.com>, <team_gallup@enron.com>, "Ingalls, Todd" <Todd.Ingalls@ENRON.com>, "Jolly, Rich" <Rich.Jolly@ENRON.com>, "Choquette, Gary" <Gary.Choquette@ENRON.com>, "Littel, Steve" <Steve.Littel@ENRON.com>, "Ratliff, Dale" <Dale.Ratliff@ENRON.com>, "Smith, Mike J" <Michael.J.Smith@ENRON.com>, "Thompson, Rodney" <Rodney.Thompson@ENRON.com>, "Basha, Clifford" <Clifford.Basha@ENRON.com>, "Hagen, Bob" <Bob.Hagen@ENRON.com>, "Margoliner, George" <George.Margoliner@ENRON.com>, "Marshall, George" <George.Marshall@ENRON.com>, "Poole, Kenneth" <Kenneth.Poole@ENRON.com>, "Rodriguez, Ruben" <Ruben.Rodriguez@ENRON.com>, "Taft, Chris" <Chris.Taft@ENRON.com>, "White, Roderick" <Roderick.White@ENRON.com>
cc:	 

Subject:	FW: Gallup Peak Power Avoidance Data Points



We have added some point to the Scada database that are provided to us
by Gary Choquette's Peak Power Predictor.  His message below describes
their function better than I would.

I've listed the points below with their descriptions, alarm value(s) and
comment.

Although these points are listed with the other Analog/Discrete points,
they are not coming from the field RTU.  They will act like normal
points so it's easy to put them together.  For those using the intranet
"Adhoc" reports, they will show up on that.  The key is that the
Discretes that we receive from Gary all end in ".CC" and the Analogs end
in ".SC".  We also try to include the (CLC) in the description to depict
that the information is coming from the Closed Loop Control Systems.


Register	Description				Alarm Value
Gary's Comments

GALP.1901.CC	Tri-State Data Old - site Unavail (CLC)	0 = Normal, 1 =
Alarm 		(can not retrieve data from Tri-States site)
GALP.1902.CC	Tri-State Calc Off-Line / Data Error (CLC) 	0 =
Normal, 1 = Alarm 		(utility is off-line or error in the
data)
GALP.1903.CC 	Tri-State Power Peak In Progress (CLC)	0 = Normal, 1 =
Peak 		(a power peak is currently in progress)

GALP.7901.SC	Probability % Today is Peak (CLC)     HI = 95  HIHI = 96
A number between 0 and 100 indicating that today is likely to be a power
peak day.
GALP.7902.SC  Probability % Now is Peak (CLC)       HI = 95  HIHI = 96
A number between 0 and 100 indicating that a power peak is active now.
GALP.7903.SC	Peak Time (hour.min) (CLC)


Please let me know if you have any questions,

Thanks,

Angela Sayegh
713-853-5021



>  -----Original Message-----
> From: 	Choquette, Gary
> Sent:	Thursday, September 27, 2001 12:30 PM
> To:	Schoolcraft, Darrell; Sayegh, Angela
> Cc:	Ratliff, Dale; Littel, Steve; Jolly, Rich; Asante, Ben; Talcott,
> Jim; Kouri, Kim; Knippa, Mark; Centilli, James
> Subject:	Gallup Peak Power Avoidance
>
> I've a working prototype of a peak power predictor for Gallup.  This
> utility downloads actual power load conditions from an FTP site.  It
> also downloads predicted temperatures for Albuquerque, Denver, Fort
> Collins, and Colorado Springs.  Using a combination of neural nets and
> rolling average time bins, I am able to estimate the peak Tri-State
> demand for the day and hourly profiles for their load.  This utility
> will upload to Gas Control using the following registers:
>
>
> Note, the 'Probability Today is Peak' can possibly be used to reduce
> interruptible volumes at nomination time (if there is a high
> probability that today is a peak)
>
> Currently the peak is integrated over a 30 minute period.  This means
> that the unit must be completely shut-off for at least 30 minutes in
> order to completely avoid a power peak.  Because we may hit multiple
> new peaks during the month, I estimate we will have around 7 indicated
> peaks per month.
>
>
> Gary Choquette
>