Agree with the first paragraph.

Bets get tougher from here.  Not so obvious and require much larger size to get same juice.  Generally not a good position considering the current world order, or disorder.  Not much juice in gas basis either.  This is where we see whether we are good traders or just great fundamentalists.  

 -----Original Message-----
From: 	Hayden, Frank  
Sent:	Tuesday, September 18, 2001 5:25 PM
To:	Arnold, John; Presto, Kevin M.; Belden, Tim; Zufferli, John
Subject:	FW: schedule C

Is there any truth to my thoughts or am I showing my ignorance?
I appreciate your feedback.

Thanks
Frank

 -----Original Message-----
From: 	Hayden, Frank  
Sent:	Tuesday, September 18, 2001 5:02 PM
To:	Gorny, Vladimir; Port, David
Subject:	schedule C

Looks like all the schedule C activity, we will make quarterly earnings.  That being said, we've lost a lot of cushion and I predict that fourth quarter we will carry some large VAR going into year end.  Let me know if you think we should revisit limits, particularly if we need to offer up to Lavo and crew the best bet for Enron's risk capital.  

As an aside, I think the best bet may be gas.  Regarding gas, I'm thinking the "basis" bet is probably more likely than huge NYMEX bet given current NYMEX level may not have enough juice to provide required profit, this being said both price and basis horizon don't appear to have much trading topography?  In East power, we are dog piling length in the Pennsylvania area, an area without a significant gas fired stacks, shorting the Midwest, net net ending up long.   In the West, shorts are still driving risk and in the words of Chuck Berry -how low can it go? Limbo alone suggest we have to hit the dirt sometime, it is trading sub $40 handle


Frank