Thanks

ds

 -----Original Message-----
From: 	Scott, Donna  
Sent:	Tuesday, March 19, 2002 11:56 AM
To:	Buchanan, John; Schoolcraft, Darrell
Subject:	Commission Meeting

I thought you might find this interesting.

Next, was a presentation by Staff on the California Update. Staff gave some interesting statistics: consumption grew 16% in 1995-2000 while capacity increased by 3%. In-state capacity will be insufficient to meet peak demand. Within the 2001-2006 new generation of 3200 MW will come on line in 2001; 6500 MW will be under construction and 15,000 MW has been either tabled or cancelled. Hydropower accounts for 20-40% and will play a significant role in the next five years. This places California at the mercy of snow pack conditions for up to 40% of its requirements. Last year the snow pack was 64% of typical and this year it is at 130%. Natural gas accounts for 15% of the state's needs; therefore, 85% is imported from outside the state. (47% from Southwest; 28% Canada and 10% from the Rocky Mountain pipes).Gas fired generation will decline in the next five years according to staff for three reasons:
new generation facilities coming on line
hydro will be at normal or above levels
neighboring states will sell into California
If there are surprises such as short-term price volatility, economic growth outpaces projects, low hydro conditions, energy conservation declines, California will experience similar conditions to last year.