Syncrasy - Weather for Business
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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]      Syncrasy, LLC?    713.228.8470 Off   713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue     Suite 1314      Houston, TX 77002    www.syncrasy.com      Sales:                   713.228.4407   Development Offices:   970.247.4139 Off   970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue       Suite 221        Durango, CO 81301    		 [IMAGE]   Complementary version of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.     - If you would like to receive this product first thing in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for subscription rates or send an email to sales@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com    - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to subscribe_tradersummary@syncrasy.com         Data last updated  Thursday, May 31, 2001 at 09:36AM EST    Commentary last updated  Thursday, May 31, 2001 at 10:09AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'     Today: Summary Forecast for Thu, May 31, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  69  +2  ERCOT(SP)  88  +2  FRCC(SE)  90  +1  MAAC(NE)  71  +3  MAIN(CTR)  64  +1  MAPP(HP)  66  NC  NPCC(NE)  61  -1  SERC(SE)  82  -1  SPP(SP)  76  -1  WSCC(NW)  82  -1  WSCC(RK)  77  NC  WSCC(SW)  90  +1      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   62 69 58 77 73 79 83 88  Max    68 71 66 82 78 84 86 90  Min     57 66 52 67 67 74 78 83  Range  12 5 13 15 10 10 8 7  StD-P  3.2 1.7 4.1 3.7 2.6 3.4 2.5 2.0  Count  9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9    Day 1-5 discussion: **** Two more closed Lows will develop in the Northern U.S. keeping the Western heat from spreading East.****  We remain in an unusually amplified pattern going into June. This should continue through and beyond the five day period. The only area of abnormal heat right now is in the West where even the coastal areas of Northern California hit the 90's yesterday. One more day of heat is expected before a moderate intensity trough pushes inland shoving the ridge position into the Intermountain West. As mentioned yesterday, I am not convinced of much cooling farther South. It all may be temporary anyway as the ridge rebuilds to the West in the 6-10 day period. Meanwhile, East of the ridge plenty of jet stream energy moves out of Canada carving out another Mississippi Valley trough that heads East over the weekend. There will be an upper level closed low! that moves from Minnesota to the Eastern Lakes by early next week. This feature should contain more significant rainfall deep into the South and East as well as more unusually cool air for the North and East. Late in the period, some of the models bring a weaker surge of energy down from Canada carving out another trough over the Northern and Central Plains.  Tomorrow: Summary Forecast for Fri, Jun  1, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  68  +1  ERCOT(SP)  90  +1  FRCC(SE)  86  NC  MAAC(NE)  69  -1  MAIN(CTR)  65  +2  MAPP(HP)  62  -1  NPCC(NE)  66  +2  SERC(SE)  82  -1  SPP(SP)  81  +2  WSCC(NW)  71  -5  WSCC(RK)  82  +1  WSCC(SW)  86  NC      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   61 70 61 67 79 78 86 84  Max    68 75 69 74 83 83 89 87  Min     56 66 56 60 74 75 83 80  Range  12 8 13 14 9 8 6 7  StD-P  2.8 2.1 3.9 4.7 2.1 2.5 1.9 2.0  Count  9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9   Day 3: Summary Forecast for Sat, Jun  2, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  64  -1  ERCOT(SP)  91  +3  FRCC(SE)  87  +1  MAAC(NE)  76  +3  MAIN(CTR)  64  -2  MAPP(HP)  68  -2  NPCC(NE)  67  -2  SERC(SE)  83  +2  SPP(SP)  80  NC  WSCC(NW)  63  -2  WSCC(RK)  78  -2  WSCC(SW)  80  -1      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   60 70 64 57 80 77 86 79  Max    65 74 69 63 84 83 89 82  Min     56 65 60 51 75 74 84 77  Range  9 9 9 12 9 9 5 5  StD-P  2.8 3.3 2.8 4.6 2.6 3.0 2.3 1.6  Count  7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7   Day 4: Summary Forecast for Sun, Jun  3, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  63  -5  ERCOT(SP)  92  +2  FRCC(SE)  88  NC  MAAC(NE)  71  -1  MAIN(CTR)  66  -4  MAPP(HP)  63  -3  NPCC(NE)  68  +1  SERC(SE)  82  -1  SPP(SP)  82  NC  WSCC(NW)  66  NC  WSCC(RK)  69  -4  WSCC(SW)  81  NC      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   59 65 61 61 70 76 89 80  Max    65 74 68 66 75 82 92 82  Min     53 58 57 57 64 73 87 78  Range  11 16 11 9 11 9 5 3  StD-P  4.4 5.3 2.7 3.0 3.7 2.5 1.4 1.1  Count  6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6   Day 5: Summary Forecast for Mon, Jun  4, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  68  -5  ERCOT(SP)  90  NC  FRCC(SE)  89  +1  MAAC(NE)  73  -3  MAIN(CTR)  64  -6  MAPP(HP)  61  -10  NPCC(NE)  67  -2  SERC(SE)  84  NC  SPP(SP)  78  -2  WSCC(NW)  70  +3  WSCC(RK)  71  -4  WSCC(SW)  82  +1      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   59 66 59 66 71 78 86 81  Max    64 75 68 70 77 84 88 83  Min     54 59 56 65 66 75 83 80  Range  10 15 13 6 11 9 5 4  StD-P  3.9 5.5 3.7 1.7 4.2 2.5 2.1 1.2  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5    Day 6-10 Discussion: I don't see a lot of change to the pattern going forward to June 10 though the models do offer differing opinions. The revered MRF has done a 180 on its forecast. For days now, it has advertised a NE surge of the ridge and heat into the Eastern U.S. Today, it shows another deep trough in the East for Day 10 and is actually the coldest looking of the models. I didnt accept the warm solution earlier, but I think this is too extreme. The markets may not agree with me as there appears to be some price weakness today. On the other extreme we have the European model which I think brings the warm air too far North into the Plains but does acknowledge weak troughing in the NE. This brings me to the Canadian and U.S. Navy models which in my opinion hold the closest answer. I expect the setup to be a ridge in the inland West with a trough across the Great L! akes and NE. Most of the West will remain above normal and the East below normal. The East will also continue to see the potential for above normal rains.  Day 6: Summary Forecast for Tue, Jun  5, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  67  -7  ERCOT(SP)  85  -4  FRCC(SE)  89  NC  MAAC(NE)  73  -2  MAIN(CTR)  64  -10  MAPP(HP)  66  -7  NPCC(NE)  69  -2  SERC(SE)  82  -2  SPP(SP)  77  -6  WSCC(NW)  72  +4  WSCC(RK)  77  NC  WSCC(SW)  82  +2      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   62 72 61 68 79 78 82 81  Max    69 81 70 72 83 83 87 84  Min     54 64 58 66 76 76 76 79  Range  16 17 12 6 7 8 11 5  StD-P  6.6 6.7 3.4 1.7 3.0 2.1 4.7 1.6  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 7: Summary Forecast for Wed, Jun  6, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  66  -9  ERCOT(SP)  85  -4  FRCC(SE)  86  -2  MAAC(NE)  71  -5  MAIN(CTR)  69  -6  MAPP(HP)  72  -2  NPCC(NE)  68  -1  SERC(SE)  79  -5  SPP(SP)  80  -5  WSCC(NW)  73  +2  WSCC(RK)  79  +2  WSCC(SW)  82  +2      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   65 77 62 71 81 77 82 83  Max    77 87 69 73 84 80 88 86  Min     53 70 60 69 79 72 75 81  Range  24 17 9 4 5 8 13 4  StD-P  9.8 6.7 2.5 1.4 1.7 3.9 5.6 1.2  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 8: Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun  7, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  68  +3  ERCOT(SP)  88  +7  FRCC(SE)  87  +8  MAAC(NE)  71  +14  MAIN(CTR)  73  +4  MAPP(HP)  74  -3  NPCC(NE)  68  +19  SERC(SE)  80  +4  SPP(SP)  83  -1  WSCC(NW)  72  +7  WSCC(RK)  79  -1  WSCC(SW)  82  +5      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   68 79 60 72 82 76 83 83  Max    77 84 68 78 84 83 89 85  Min     60 75 56 69 80 67 77 81  Range  17 9 13 9 4 16 12 4  StD-P  6.4 3.1 3.9 3.0 1.4 7.0 5.0 1.2  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 9: Summary Forecast for Fri, Jun  8, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  62  -10  ERCOT(SP)  79  -1  FRCC(SE)  74  -2  MAAC(NE)  55  -10  MAIN(CTR)  68  -6  MAPP(HP)  75  +1  NPCC(NE)  53  +1  SERC(SE)  67  -10  SPP(SP)  80  -5  WSCC(NW)  65  +2  WSCC(RK)  81  +3  WSCC(SW)  79  +3      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   69 77 57 71 81 74 83 82  Max    71 78 62 78 83 82 89 86  Min     68 75 54 65 77 68 79 79  Range  3 3 8 13 6 13 9 6  StD-P  1.1 1.2 3.4 6.3 2.2 5.7 3.2 3.0  Count  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4   Day 10: Summary Forecast for Sat, Jun  9, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  69  -3  ERCOT(SP)  81  NC  FRCC(SE)  75  -2  MAAC(NE)  66  -3  MAIN(CTR)  74  +1  MAPP(HP)  75  -1  NPCC(NE)  61  +7  SERC(SE)  73  -5  SPP(SP)  82  -4  WSCC(NW)  63  NC  WSCC(RK)  75  -1  WSCC(SW)  79  +2      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   63 68 60 59 69 72 76 71  Max    72 75 63 63 80 73 81 79  Min     53 59 57 54 56 71 71 63  Range  19 15 6 9 24 3 10 16  StD-P  8.9 7.2 2.6 4.0 10.9 0.9 4.8 8.0  Count  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]  	
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