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------------------ Forwarded by John J Lavorato/Corp/Enron on 12/21/2000 12:03 PM ---------------------------


Stinson Gibner@ECT
12/21/2000 10:28 AM
To:	John J Lavorato/Corp/Enron@Enron
cc:	Vince J Kaminski/HOU/ECT@ECT, Zimin Lu/HOU/ECT@ECT 

Subject:	2nd last day simulations

John,

In general, results are not too different from last day roll.    For "no roll" and "roll same position" strategies, the 2nd last day seems to outperform slightly more often.

Let me know if you would like to 
1) look at quarter to quarter earning volatility of these strategies or
2) look at effect of incorporating some transaction costs for rolling/liquidating positions.

--Stinson

Normal Roll	No Roll		Fill Gap