Weather Headlines
Monday January 21, 2002
The battle rages on between the polar vortex and the Caribbean ridge. While
widespread cold is still not likely, widespread storminess is.
The above headlines are the same from my last post six days ago. That
pattern seems to have verified well and it looks to continue through this
week as well. One notable difference though is the trough in the West is
stronger as well as the ridge in the East. This will have an effect on
temperatures and subsequent precipitation type. A series of storms should
move through the nation this week. A couple of them look noteworthy. In the
Eastern U.S. the rain/snow line should be much farther North this time
around. In fact, enough warm air could be in place over the deep South for
a severe weather outbreak Wednesday and Thursday. There could be some
decent snows in the NE again late in the period, but the storm system will
need to take a more Northerly track than I expect. A strong SW flow of air
will overwhelm the Eastern half of the nation with double digit above
normal air, especially once the melting of this weekends snowfall is
finished. The trough in the West is sufficiently strong to produce below
normal temperatures this week West of the divide. Precipitation could
become quite heavy later in the week especially in the Pacific NW. There is
a slight concern that arctic air could get into the Pacific NW late in the
period. There continues to be an abundance in Western Canada. I have seen
reports of temperatures in Northern Saskatchewan this weekend approaching
60 below zero. It is too close to dismiss entirely, but I still see no real
sign of it pressing Southward.
Here is a shocker for those interested in the 6-10 day period. The MRF
brings a significant shot of arctic air into the Northern U.S.! I guess
this continues to be a case of predict it often enough and you'll
eventually be right. To be fair, there was some cold this weekend in the
Northern Plains. Minneapolis dropped below zero for the first time this
winter Saturday morning. Of course the normal low for the date is around 3
degrees. Again I suppose it can't be entirely written off since its in the
Canadian vicinity. But, it remains locked to the North on the Canadian and
European solutions and I'll stay on the same horse until bucked. This
battle only applies to the far North anyway as all signs show the Southern
half of the country arctic free and largely above normal.
For the period Monday January 21 through Friday January 25, expect the
following temperature trends:
Average 4 to 6-degrees below normal: Intermountain West, Desert SW,
California...
Average 1 to 3- degrees below normal: Pacific NW...
Average 1 to 3-degrees above normal: Southern Plains and Rockies...
Average 4 to 6-degrees above normal: Gulf Coast, Southeast, Central Plains,
Mississippi Valley, Northern and Central Rockies...
Average 7 to 12-degrees above normal: Northern Plains, Great Lakes, Ohio
Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast...
Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist APB Energy / True Quote