[IMAGE] Forums Discuss these points in the Forums:  Forexnews Forum       Technicals Live Charts Analysis available from: Cornelius Luca   J.P. Chorek   Technical Research Ltd.   Charts & News featuring Standard & Poor's       Interest Rates   US: Japan: Eurozone: UK: Switzerland:   2.5%  0.15%  3.75%  4.5%  1.75-2.75%       [IMAGE] 	 [IMAGE]  FX Majors Rangebound, USD Looks To Earnings & Data  October 18, 7:00 AM: EUR/$..0.9018 $/JPY..120.94 GBP/$..1.4429 $/CHF..1.6383  FX Majors Rangebound, USD Looks To Earnings & Data by Jes Black  At 8:30:00 AM US Jobless Claims (exp 485k, prev 468k) At 12:00:00 PM US October Phil Fed Survey (exp -16.5, prev -7.3)  Major currencies moved rangebound in listless trade as markets lacked any new direction. General reluctance to trade in an environment of global uncertainty kept dealers on the sidelines. The dollar is seen on edge before the Wall Street open as investors await another barrage of earnings reports. So far, 25 of the latest 63 earnings results haven't met expectations, and the tech sector is under heavy pressure in Europe today after the Nasdaq dropped 4.4% and the Dow fell 1.61% overnight. Today's economic data may push the dollar to the lower part of its range. Expectations are for US weekly jobless claims to rise 485,000 in the October 13 week, up from 468,000 prior week. Last week was impacted by seasonal data, but as continuing claims surge higher, the unemployment rate is on its way to hitting 5%. The US Philly Fed survey will also be watched because it is seen as an early read on US manufacturing in October. The headline survey is expected to fall to -16.5 from -7.3, and the market will also look to its new orders component, which is seen as a leading indicator.   The dollar steadied on Thursday after an extremely choppy US session overnight, which was provoked by a surge in anxiety following news of more anthrax attacks against the US. Fed Chairman Greenspan tried to calm fears by saying that long-term prospects of the US economy remained bright, but US equity markets were more concerned about the uncertainty of when the US would recover. The White House's Lindsey also said on Wednesday the US will probably see "small negative" GDP in Q3, therefore making it likely the US economy will have 2 quarters of negative GDP and officially be in a state of recession. Nevertheless, dealers were quick to push the euro and yen back down amid sentiment that the US would fare better than Japan and the Eurozone because of more fiscal and monetary stimulus in the US.  Indeed that sentiment was reinforced by today's cut in the German growth forecast. FinMin Eichel said Germany's economy was likely to grow by around 0.75% this year and by 1.0-1.5% in 2002. Markets have long been weary about European nation growth forecasts and this week even the European Union warned against what it saw to be over inflated expectations. Therefore, the market has been very reluctant to buy the euro, even amid the US war in Afghanistan (with ground troops now) and increasing occurrences of bio-terrorism on US soil.   The short-term outlook for the euro was not helped by the European Central Bank's bulletin which echoed statements from last Thursday when it kept interest rates on hold. The ECB said that despite the fact that the September 11 attacks could delay a rebound in the euro zone's sluggish economy, it felt that monetary policy was appropriate at the moment. Dealers were less sure, and kept EUR/USD near day lows around 90 cents. EUR/USD hit a session high of 90.40 but remains in its downward channel since peaking at 93.38 on September 17, and was further weakened by its inability to maintain gains above 90.85 last week, which led to a net reduction in long positions. Therefore, the technical outlook for the euro remains bearish as it targets last week's lows of 89.87. Near-term resistance is seen at 90.40 followed by 90.85. Meanwhile, USD/CHF also traded rangebound around the key 1.6400 mark.  The biggest mover was sterling which broke lower out of its consolidation pattern. GBP/USD hit a session low of 1.4423 after testing upside resistance at 1.4500. Cable continues to trade in a range from 1.4400 to 1.4550 since last Thursday. Resistance is now seen at 1.4450, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from 1.4395-1.4540. If sterling cannot regain this level, cable is seen targeting 1.4400, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the move from 1.37 to last Monday's 8-1/2 month high of 1.4836.   Today's mixed retail sales data had little effect on the pound. Monthly retail sales were lower than expected but the August figures were revised up. Retail sales growth is still very strong and this is a positive for sterling because it shows a resilient consumer. And, since the BoE has left the door open for more rate cuts, any fall in consumer confidence would likely be met by further rate cuts, thus supporting sterling.  Meanwhile, USD/JPY traded around the 121 figure. A minor setback in USD/JPY came following comments by former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, who was reported as saying it was harmful to think a weak yen would solve Japan's economic problems. But, the dollar continues to find support on hopes the U.S. economy will improve in the long term. Today, Finance Minister Shiokawa said he could not assure that the Japanese economy would not contract. But this was not a surprise to the markets considering Japan's GDP fell 0.8 percent in April-June from the previous quarter, and many economists expect full-year contraction for the current fiscal year ending in March 2002. USD/JPY now hovering above support at 120.85 after failing to break resistance around the 122 level on Wednesday. For now, bull trend remains in doubt unless it can regain the 121.00 level. If not, USD/JPY expected to trade in a range of 120 to 122.  European bourses are down around 2% this morning, following techs lower after yesterday's slide in the Nasdaq. The tech sector is under heavy pressure and 4 key tech companies report today. Those are Sun, Ebay and Gateway. But Microsoft's announcement is not seen to be key because the release of Windows XP later this month will put that revenue in next quarter's release. GM's earnings will be watched for a positive surprise considering their large gains in market share through 0% financing in the later part of Q3. The dollar will likely trade around the earnings parade and given strong investor worries about the economic recovery in the US, the dollar will be affected by the direction of US stocks. Other key companies announcing their earnings today are Coke, Merrill, and Boeing.   	[IMAGE] Audio Mkt. 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