Hi Folks,

Here's how I see the Passing Game Matchups this week.

PLEASE NOTE:   See the cheatsheet online www.footballguys.com for exactly
where I rank players and to determine who to start.   I always receive
emails asking me how I can have a guy ranked highly on the cheatsheet but
listed under a matchup that favors the Defense.   Just because one matchup
may be more favorable than another, that doesn't necessarily mean I'd start
the player with the best matchup.   Peyton Manning may have a horrible
matchup one week but unless you're sitting on Kurt Warner or Daunte
Culpepper, Manning's your guy no matter who he's lining up against.   The
matchup info is meant to be just one more tool in your box when it comes to
deciding between players.

Note:  I've used the player stats sorted by performance over the last four
weeks extensively in developing these write-ups. Stats are provided by Mike
Hall's excellent FLM League Management Software.  http://www.fflm.com/ for
more info.
Let's get to it.

Joe

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Passing Game Matchups to Avoid and Exploit


Locks:  These games feature Defenses that should be overmatched against the
Offense.


Chicago's Passing Game vs San Francisco Defense

QB Jim Miller isn't flashy, but he gets it done.   Losing WR Marcus Robinson
was a huge blow though and they'll be hard pressed to pick up the slack.
Rookie David Terrell will see increased time as will Dez White.   Marty
Booker is the other WR and he should be solid.   Of the bunch, Terrell has
the most talent but is by far the least experienced.   Look for him to grow
up in a hurry.   San Francisco can definitely be thrown on as shown by their
# 26 ranking in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks.
They rank # 22 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs.   The Bears will likely try
to flex their new found rushing game muscle but I think it'll come down to
how well they can cover the loss of Marcus Robinson.   It's a good matchup,
I'm just not sure if the Bears can take advantage of it.


Denver Passing Game vs New England Defense

Brian Griese tries to rally his team against the suddenly dangerous
Patriots.   New England ranks # 22 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over
the last four weeks.   That may be just what the Broncos need.   Eddie
Kennison is playing better and Rod Smith is facing double and triple teams,
yet still producing.   Ty Law is a solid Cornerback but Otis Smith on the
other side is vulnerable.   Griese's shoulder is sore but he'll play through
it.   It looks like it may be an issue all season.


Minnesota Passing Game vs Tampa Bay Defense

Daunte Culpepper didn't put up the eye popping stats last week but the
Vikings won a tough game against the Packers.   You could see a similar
performance this week in this important game against Tampa Bay.   The Bucs
rank # 24 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks so
they've obviously been thrown on.   Randy Moss and Cris Carter are solid
plays as is Culpepper.   I also like TE Byron Chamberlain to make some noise
here.


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Prime Matchups:  These games feature Defenses that should have trouble
stopping the Offense.


Baltimore Passing Game vs Jacksonville Defense

Here's all you need to know about the Jaguar Pass Defense:  Rob Johnson
looked pretty good against them last week and was only sacked 2 times.
That says a lot.  The Jags rank # 18 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over
the last four weeks but they seem to be regressing.   Elvis Grbac is listed
as Questionable with a rib / chest injury and is no lock to start.   Randall
Cunningham would go if Grbac can't.   After getting everyone's expectations
up, WR Travis Taylor disappeared last week having only 1 pass thrown his
way.   Brandon Stokely had 9 and Qadry Ismail had 10.   So it's tough to say
how it'll play this week.   I really like Taylor, but he sure came up small
last week.   Shannon Sharpe is a good play like always and rookie TE Todd
Heap should hopefully see action this week.


Carolina Passing Game vs New York Jets Defense

QB Chris Weinke seems to be regressing a bit after a very solid start.   His
interceptions last week were killers.   He faces a Jets team that ranks # 21
in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks so he could get
back on track.  They rank # 20 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs.   Muhsin
Muhammad and Donald Hayes will face solid corners Aaron Glenn and Marcus
Coleman.   The real damage for Carolina can be done with TE Wesley Walls
who's always a factor.


Cincinnati Passing Game vs Detroit Defense

New Flash - Jon Kitna must be more consistent.   For better or worse, the
Bengals record seems to mirror his play.   Losing WR Chad Johnson hurt as
Johnson brought a true deep threat to the table - something the other WRs do
not.   Darnay Scott and Peter Warrick are limited by Kitna's play and don't
seem to be as active as they were earlier.   The Lions rank # 27 in Passing
Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks so they can definitely be
thrown on.   For the year, Detroit ranks # 30 in Fantasy Points Allowed to
QBs so maybe there is hope for Kitna this week.


Kansas City Passing Game vs Indianapolis Defense

QB Trent Green should get a break Thursday night against a Colt defense that
hasn't put much pressure on the QB (4 sacks in the last 3 games).   They
rank # 16 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks.   DE
Chad Bratzke is Questionable so that should help even more.   WR Derrick
Alexander is getting back in the groove of things with a 4 reception day for
99 yards and a TD last week.   Chris Thomas will likely start but Snoop
Minnis will see time too.   New England abused Cornerback David Macklin last
week and the Chiefs should have similar results.   The Colts rank # 28 in
Fantasy Points Allowed to WRs.   As always, TE Tony Gonzalez will be a huge
part of the game


New York Giants Passing Game vs Washington Defense

The big buzz this week is that Coach Jim Fassell is rumored to be
considering not starting WR Amani Toomer.   Remember, last year, Toomer was
briefly demoted and he responded with a great finish.   Even if this
happens, I don't expect it to be a big deal as Toomer is clearly the Giants
best option at WR.   QB Kerry Collins struggled with just 162 yards last
week against the Eagles but Philadelphia is on a different level.   The
Redskins are ranked just # 23 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the
last four weeks and the Giants should get back on track.


New York Jets Passing Game vs Carolina Defense

The Jet passing game will be without WR Wayne Chrebet this week as he
recovers from a concussion.   Kevin Swayne will likely get the start in his
place and I think you'll see a lot more of Matthew Hatchette too.
Testeverde's been ok but not great.   This offense is all about Curtis
Martin though and I don't see that changing.   Although the passing matchup
is enticing as the Panthers rank just # 30 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game
over the last four weeks.   The Carolina Linebacking Corps is in shambles so
TE Anthony Becht might be a good play.   The Panthers rank # 28 in Fantasy
Points Allowed to TEs.

St. Louis Passing Game vs New Orleans Defense

Start your Rams.   Yes, New Orleans is solid but each one of these St. Louis
players is capable of winning your game for you this week.   Kurt Warner,
Torry Holt, and Issac Bruce are must starts with Az-Zahir Hakim a likely
starter for many teams.


Tampa Bay Passing Game vs Minnesota Defense

Injuries are taking their toll on the Buccaneer WRs.   Both Keyshawn Johnson
(hip flexor) and Jacquez Green (groin) are Questionable for this week.  That
doesn't bode well for them or for QB Brad Johnson.   Minnesota ranks # 25 in
Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks so the opportunity
is there if they can get healthy.   But right now, it's a tough call until
you know more.   I'd expect both to play but you don't know for sure.   If
the WRs are limited, that'll obviously drag Brad Johnson's numbers down.

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Even Matchups:  These games feature no real advantage either way


Detroit Passing Game vs Cincinnati Defense

I've never been a Charlie Batch fan but he's making a believer out of me.
He blew up against the Titans Sunday with a 338 / 3 TD / 1 Interception day.
The Bengal Defense has put up good numbers ranking # 6 in Passing Yards
Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks.   On the flip side to that,
Rodney Heath and Robert Bean are out, so the secondary could be ripe for
Batch this week.   Lions WRs Germane Crowell and Herman Moore are gone but
Johnnie Morton is ready to go.   Larry Foster will be the # 2 WR and don't
count him out.   Morton can't catch every pass.   Morton has been averaging
8 targets per game but that'll surely rise.   Detroit just signed WR Bert
Emanuel so all their troubles are now over...


New England Passing Game vs Denver Defense

Count me on the Tom Brady Bandwagon.   He's done well against several
different defenses both at home and on the road.   He plays a very similar
game to fellow Michigan grad Brian Griese - He doesn't dazzle you with
physicals but he plays a solid, heady game.   Don't know for sure, but it
wouldn't surprise me if his Dad were a coach.   He has that kind of game.
Chris Mortensen reported earlier this week that Drew Bledsoe may not be
coming back this season because of his injury.   Terry Glenn is a question
mark for this week.  His agent is crying again that mean old Bill Belichick
made him hurt his hamstring.   I'm so far over that.   If he plays, he could
produce.   Troy Brown will also see a ton of looks and you can't count out
Mr. Do Everything, David Patten.   Denver ranks # 24 in Fantasy Points
Allowed to TEs so I wouldn't be surprised to see Jermaine Wiggins make some
noise.


New Orleans Passing Game vs St. Louis Defense

Like everyone else, I'm a little worried about Aaron Brooks.   He ranks just
# 17 among QBs in Fantasy Points over the last 3 weeks.   Things won't get
any easier this week against a vastly improved Ram defense that ranks # 13
in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks.   The focus of
the Saints is (rightly) RB Ricky Williams and Brooks simply isn't being
counted on to carry the team.   WRs Joe Horn and Willie Jackson are
garnering most of the passes with Albert Connell getting a few looks.   TE
Cam Cleeland is doing his Bubba Franks impression scoring on just about
every pass he catches.   The Rams rank # 17 in Fantasy Points Allowed to TEs
so Cleeland might do some damage.


Philadelphia Passing Game vs Oakland Defense

Donovan McNabb threw just enough to win Sunday afternoon.   He'll likely do
the same against an Oakland defense that's ranked # 20 in Passing Yards
Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks.   Cornerback Charles Woodson's a
shutdown corner and is as good as anyone in the game.   WR Todd Pinkston's
wrist wasn't supposed to be any big deal but he's showing up on the injury
report as Questionable.   Coach Andy Reid said he thought he'd be good to
for Sunday.   If Woodson lines up on James Thrash, Pinkston could produce.


San Diego Passing Game vs Buffalo Defense

Buffalo at San Diego...Think they'll be any revenge factor brewing here?
Just a little I'm guessing.   QB Doug Flutie takes his team against a
Buffalo Defense that's actually been very solid against the pass ranking # 1
in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks.   Much of that
can be attributed to games against Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and the Jets.
Still though, they're decent defending the pass and will give Flutie some
obstacles.   Jeff Graham is clearly the most active WR while they're doing
what they can to get TE Freddie Jones into the game.


San Francisco Passing Game vs Chicago Defense

QB Jeff Garcia's picked up where he left off last year.   Over the last 3
weeks, he's the # 1 rated QB in the league in Fantasy Points.   His 3
rushing TDs lead the team.   They'll face a stout defense in Chicago that's
better suited for stopping the run than the pass.   The Bears rank # 19 in
Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks.   MLB Brian
Urlacher is very tough on the mid range routes but look for the 49ers to
exploit the Chicago Corners, R.W. McQuarters and Walt Harris.   No corner
matches up well with Terrell Owens and this week won't be any different.
J.J. Stokes and Tai Streets will see action as well but make no mistake,
this team is about Garcia throwing to Owens.


Washington Passing Game vs New York Giants Defense

Tony Banks to Rod Gardner.   What a great performance by the rookie WR last
week.   It'll be tougher to repeat as the Giants are much more physical.
They rank # 12 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks.
Gardner has seen 7+ passes thrown his way each game since week 3.   Michael
Westbrook's numbers have been falling.   Pretty tough matchup for the young
Gardner.


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Downside Matchups:  These games feature a Defense that could pose trouble
for the Offense.


Arizona Passing Game vs Dallas Defense

The Arizona passing game is all about David Boston.   And rightfully so.
Cowboy Cornerbacks Mario Edwards and Duane Hawthorne can't matchup with
Boston and the Cardinal running game with Michael Pittman will have the
safeties creeping forward.   On the flip side, Dallas ranks # 5 in Passing
Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks and it's hard to argue with
the numbers.   Obviously, they're stopping teams somehow.   Jake Plummer
should have time to throw as the Cowboys have only registered 5 sacks in the
last 3 games.


Buffalo Passing Game vs San Diego Defense
Is there a light at the end of the tunnel for Rob Johnson?   He did play
much better last week.   Before I get too excited, he's got a tough matchup
this week with San Diego who plays pretty decent pass defense.   Plus, you
know the Chargers will be pumped up playing the Bills with all the ties
there.   The Chargers rank # 14 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the
last four weeks.   WR Eric Moulds, TE Jay Reimersma, and FB Larry Centers
will see the bulk of the passes from Johnson.   In an effort to save Rob
Johnson's life, I think you'll continue to see the coaching staff rely
heavily on the short passes to Reimersma and Centers.


Dallas Passing Game vs Arizona Defense

With Anthony Wright's knee troubles, looks like Dallas will start Clint
Stoerner or Ryan Leaf.   Ouch.   Although to be fair, I've always been a guy
who felt Leaf still has a chance in this league.   Call me crazy, I know.
WR Joey Galloway is questionable with a bad foot so that's a negative.   If
Wright's unable to go, I'd probably shy away from all these guys until you
see them perform.


Indianapolis Passing Game vs Kansas City Defense

If you own any Colt players, you've seen first hand the differences between
real and Fantasy Football lately.   Marvin Harrison, Peyton Manning and
Edgerrin James turned in great Fantasy performances last week - en route to
the Colts getting spanked by the Patriots.   Go figure.   They'll have a
pretty tough matchup this week against Kansas City who ranks # 2 in Passing
Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks.    Much of that ranking
comes from the fact KC is so easy to run on.   Corners William Bartee and
Eric Warfield will have their hands full with Harrison and Rookie Reggie
Wayne.  Looks like WR Jerome Pathon will miss another game with a sprained
foot.   Look for the Colts to take what the Chiefs give them - running room
for James.


Jacksonville Passing Game vs Baltimore Defense

Over the last two weeks, it's become very clear that the way to attack the
Ravens defense is to spread the field with multiple WR sets.   Look for
Jacksonville to do just that and for QB Mark Brunell to possibly focus a bit
more on the shorter passing game.   WRs Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell are
both solid players.   They'll face a Raven defense that's ranked # 11 in
Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks.   They're much more
effective in stopping the run than they are the pass.   With Stacey Mack
rushing the ball, the Jags would just as well throw.   TE Kyle Brady might
be worth a shot as Baltimore ranks # 26 in Fantasy Points Allowed to TEs.


Miami Passing Game vs Seattle Defense

Jay Fiedler faces an improving Seattle defense that's ranked # 17 in Passing
Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks.   Miami's had a week off to
prepare.   WRs Oronde Gadsden and our Footballguy favorite Chris Chambers
will see most of the passes although Cornerback Shawn Springs is getting
back to form after his hamstring injury and will likely limit Gadsden's
play.


Pittsburgh Passing Game vs Tennessee Defense

The Steelers are rolling but don't think Kordell Stewart has too much to do
with it.   I'd avoid pretty much everyone on this offense outside of Jerome
Bettis and Kris Brown.   If you really have to reach, WR Plaxico Burress is
seeing lots of balls thrown his way and actually has more targets the last
two weeks than Hines Ward.   Burress should be able to use his size to his
advantage in the Red Zone.   Injured Cornerback Samari Rolle says he has a
50-50 chance of playing Monday.   But bottom line is this team is all about
Jerome Bettis and Defense.


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Defensive Slam Dunks:  These games feature a very tough Defense posing major
problems for the Offense.


Oakland Passing Game vs Philadelphia Defense

QB Rich Gannon and his Hall of Famers, Jerry Rice and Tim Brown will take on
one of the most aggressive pass defenses in the game.   Against Oakland's
savvy veterans, I'm not certain unlimited blitzing is the best course of
action.   Brown and Rice are guys who can find the open seam and
fortunately, Gannon's a guy who can deliver the ball.   The Eagles rank # 3
in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks though so
something's gotta give.


Seattle Passing Game vs Miami Defense

In one of the more controversial moves of the season, Coach Mike Holmgren
has awarded Matt Hasselbeck his job back.   Trent Dilfer goes back to the
bench.   While he's there, he'll likely see Hasselbeck struggle against a
tough Miami Defense.   Miami ranks # 8 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game
over the last four weeks and Cornerbacks Patrick Surtain and Sam Madison are
as good as any pair in the game.


Tennessee Passing Game vs Pittsburgh Defense

Steve McNair looked almost like a real live NFL QB last week.   Although he
still can't get the ball past his TE as Frank Wycheck rolled for 100 yards.
Look for more of the same this week as the Steelers create trouble.
Pittsburgh is ranked # 4 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last
four weeks.   Their aggressive Linebacker play could create some
opportunities for Wycheck and Erron Kinney to find some seams in the middle.
As usual, the TEs are the best options here.


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