fyi

 -----Original Message-----
From: 	Cantrell, Rebecca  
Sent:	Friday, April 27, 2001 10:10 AM
To:	Miller, Stephanie
Subject:	PGT CP01-141 Fuel and Roll-In

FYI.  I think his cc: must have gone to Kevin Heal in the Calgary office.


---------------------- Forwarded by Rebecca W Cantrell/HOU/ECT on 04/27/2001 10:08 AM ---------------------------

 
"Houston, Tim, (HOTS)" <HOTS@chevron.com> on 04/26/2001 07:50:04 PM
To:	"'enronNA-rebecca cantrell'" <rebecca.w.cantrell@enron.com>
cc:	"'enron-kheal'" <kheal@ect.enron.com> 
Subject:	PGT CP01-141 Fuel and Roll-In



The enclosed spreadsheet contains data extracted from PGT's semi-annual fuel
tracker filings which might be of interest.  It is possible PGT might claim
the increasing fuel cost parts of your intervention as "unsubstantiated" and
therefore should be excluded and ignored by the Commission.
 <<PGTfuel.xls>>

There could well be a case for roll-in.  If there is, PGT didn't include it
in their filing.  I guess we will see how it all shakes out.  It's
interesting no-one has yet asked FERC to require a new rate case by a
specific date or to force the trivial rate reduction through to Shippers.

Tim




Estimate of marginal/incremental fuel consumption due to new capacity:

NEW CONTRACTS
210,800 dt; 612.46 mi => 	(210,800)/(1 -0.0050%*612.46)*(612.46) =
133,185,095 dt-miles/day
  20,380 dt; 612.46 mi =>	(20,380)/(1 -0.0050%*612.46)*(612.46) =
12,876,244 dt-miles/day

				annual average (5 mo winter, 7 mo summer) =
138,550,197 dt-miles/day

BASE CASE, FULL EXISTING SYSTEM
1.385 e9 dt-miles/day, useage of 68.6 Mdt/day, or 0.0050%/mile

MARGINAL FUEL PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE
0.0101 %/mile, slope of line from chart 'ex5' as computed on sheet 'regr'
Sheet 'ex8' has all the historical data points and their derivations.

Additional Fuel estimate
0.0101 %/mile * 138,550,197 dt-miles/day = 14.0 Mdt/day

Total Fuel Used
68.6 + 14.0 = 82.6 Mdt/day

Total Throughput
1.385 + 0.139 = 1.524 e9 dt-mi/day

Estimated resultant average fuel:
82.6 Mdt/day / 1.524 e9 dt-mi/day = 0.00542 %/mile.

Increase in average fuel to existing shippers
0.00542%/mile - 0.0050%/mile = 0.00042 %/mile
612.46 mi * 0.00042 %/mile = 0.257% on a Kingsgate-to-Malin path.
At $5.00 /dt, 0.257%*$5 = $0.013 /dt

Since the combined toll (cash toll plus fuel value) goes up, PGT must make a
case that roll-in is beneficial.



The previous filings by PGT that provide the historical data are:
12/22/93	RP94-88
5/31/94		TM94-3-86
12/1/94		TM95-2-86
5/31/95		TM95-3-86
12/1/95		TM96-3-86
5/31/96		TM96-4-86
11/27/96	TM97-2-86
5/29/97		TM97-3-86
11/26/97	TM98-2-86
5/29/98		TM98-3-86
12/1/98		TM99-1-86
6/1/99		TM99-3-86
12/1/99		RP00-109
5/30/00		RP00-304
12/1/00		RP01-153

 - PGTfuel.xls 



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