Weather Headlines
Monday November 19, 2001

*** Much colder air now in the Plains will translate East. Zonal flow my
midweek will modify the effects. Legitimate arctic air starts to pool in
Western Canada late next week.***

     Last weeks triple digit above normal readings are a thing of the past
as a strong cold front has moved through the Plains. Temperatures in the
teens and 20's are common there this morning. It is colder, I grant you,
but my fears of not seeing any real arctic air in this have turned out to
be correct. In fact, a return to zonal flow is expected before the end of
the week and another warm up commences. Now, the jet stream is suppressed
farther South, so we won't see a return to the previous 2 weeks warmth.
However, a return to slightly above normal is possible late in the 5 day
period so temperature departures this week are not that significant. This
of course is an important travel week due to the holiday. I do not see a
major storm in the immediate horizon. The current Eastern front does have
some moisture with it. Showers have broken out ahead of it and eventually
some Lake Effect snows could occur tomorrow and Wednesday. The West coast
has some rain this morning, but this storm should weaken inland and no
major temperature trend changes are seen in the short range for this area.

     I am still not expecting any major arctic out breaks in the 6-10 day
period, but hemispheric changes during the period may well spell an arctic
outbreak going into early December.  It will be interesting to see if
arctic air now forecast to pool in Western Canada next week materializes at
the expected rate and intensity. Assuming it does, then a SE spreading is
due just outside this period. But, before that happens inside this period,
models are leaning towards a significant storm forming in the SW and
heading towards the Great Lakes.  Overall, temperatures may return to above
normal in the East ahead of this feature. The West may go below normal in
response to the deep trough if in fact it materializes.

For the period Monday November 19 through Friday November 23, expect the
following temperature trends:

Average 4 to 6- degrees below normal: Central and Southern Plains, Gulf
Coast, Southeast?

Average 1 to 3-degrees below normal: Great Lakes, Ohio and Mississippi
Valleys, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast ?

Average 1 to 3-degrees above normal: Northern Plains, Pacific NW,
California?

Average 4 to 6-degrees above normal: Desert SW,  Rockies, Intermountain
West?

Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist  APB Energy / True Quote