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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Wednesday, Nov 21, 2001 at 07:45AM EST    Commentary last updated: Wednesday, Nov 21, 2001 at 09:21AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote     Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS  or Aquila    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'     Today: Wednesday, November 21, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 48 +1 ERCOT(SP) 64 +1 FRCC(SE) 75 +1 MAAC(NE) 46 +2 MAIN(CTR) 54 +3 MAPP(HP) 56 +4 NPCC(NE) 41 +1 SERC(SE) 60 +2 SPP(SP) 61 +2 WSCC(NW) 51 +2 WSCC(RK) 52 +3 WSCC(SW) 64 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 45 48 40 46 43 57 57 60 Max 54 57 47 51 52 64 66 66 Min 39 41 34 42 36 49 51 56 Range 15 16 13 9 16 15 15 10 StD-P 5.5 5.4 3.7 2.7 4.8 4.1 4.5 2.9 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:   Battle develops between tropical ridge in the Atlantic and Arctic air flooding Canada. The Atlantic ridge will prevail? for now.  A series of weather systems will move into the West Coast and head East through the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. While the pattern will be more active than recent weeks, no one big storm is likely to bring travel problems on a large scale. In addition, there is little additional cold air available to spin up a Winter Storm, so most precip will be in the form of light to moderate rain. Exceptions to this will be the mountains of the West where ski resort snows will fall. Also, the far Northern reaches of the U.S. could see some light snows. Temperature departures are expected to go largely above normal again with the highest numbers in the North, though not to the de! gree of earlier in the month. Negative numbers though not significant are confined to the West where storms come in off the ocean and in the Southeast where this time of year is not cold anyway.    Tomorrow: Thursday, November 22, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 51 NC ERCOT(SP) 71 +1 FRCC(SE) 77 NC MAAC(NE) 51 +1 MAIN(CTR) 50 +1 MAPP(HP) 47 +1 NPCC(NE) 46 +1 SERC(SE) 64 +1 SPP(SP) 58 +4 WSCC(NW) 47 NC WSCC(RK) 43 +2 WSCC(SW) 62 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 46 44 44 43 39 62 64 58 Max 56 54 54 50 50 69 72 64 Min 42 39 36 40 32 58 58 55 Range 14 15 18 10 18 11 14 9 StD-P 3.2 3.8 3.9 2.4 3.8 3.1 3.0 2.4 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Friday, November 23, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 55 +4 ERCOT(SP) 74 +4 FRCC(SE) 79 NC MAAC(NE) 54 +2 MAIN(CTR) 52 +5 MAPP(HP) 46 +1 NPCC(NE) 46 +1 SERC(SE) 68 +5 SPP(SP) 59 +2 WSCC(NW) 44 -1 WSCC(RK) 40 -3 WSCC(SW) 59 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 49 41 44 40 31 66 66 54 Max 51 46 50 45 40 69 72 59 Min 46 38 40 37 25 63 60 49 Range 5 8 10 8 15 6 12 10 StD-P 1.2 2.3 2.6 1.9 3.3 1.7 3.3 2.5 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 4: Saturday, November 24, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 58 +7 ERCOT(SP) 74 +1 FRCC(SE) 80 NC MAAC(NE) 59 +3 MAIN(CTR) 51 +2 MAPP(HP) 42 NC NPCC(NE) 50 +5 SERC(SE) 69 +2 SPP(SP) 58 +1 WSCC(NW) 42 -1 WSCC(RK) 38 -1 WSCC(SW) 55 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 49 37 53 37 31 68 61 51 Max 51 42 55 42 39 71 69 55 Min 48 33 51 35 26 66 54 48 Range 3 9 4 7 13 5 15 7 StD-P 0.9 2.4 1.2 1.5 3.3 1.5 4.6 2.1 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 5: Sunday, November 25, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 54 +2 ERCOT(SP) 74 +1 FRCC(SE) 79 -1 MAAC(NE) 59 +3 MAIN(CTR) 49 -1 MAPP(HP) 40 NC NPCC(NE) 52 +3 SERC(SE) 70 +2 SPP(SP) 60 +3 WSCC(NW) 40 -1 WSCC(RK) 36 +2 WSCC(SW) 55 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 43 37 53 35 32 66 66 49 Max 47 41 55 40 39 72 72 56 Min 41 34 52 31 27 64 61 45 Range 6 7 3 9 12 8 11 11 StD-P 1.8 2.3 1.0 2.3 4.3 2.6 3.0 2.7 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:  Models are going wild with a winter storm early in the 6-10 day period. I suspect surface pressures are a little overdone given the upper level flow. However, the Gulf will be open and some significant moisture and wind are possible. The storm track will be well North which confines snow to the Northern U.S. Significant winter weather though from Wyoming to Minnesota is possible. The large scale pattern ending November will be for a trough to sit in the Interior West while a strong ridge exists over the Southeast.  There is still plenty of arctic air available in Canada, but with the jet stream in a broad West to SW flow, no means of delivery appear available until at least December 1'st. In a general sense, I look for temperatures to be below normal in the West with above normal in the South and East. The North! is somewhat a question mark being closer to the arctic air and could go either way. I'll lean to normal for now.  Day 6: Monday, November 26, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 54 +2 ERCOT(SP) 72 +1 FRCC(SE) 79 NC MAAC(NE) 55 +1 MAIN(CTR) 49 +2 MAPP(HP) 37 NC NPCC(NE) 49 NC SERC(SE) 68 NC SPP(SP) 58 +3 WSCC(NW) 39 -3 WSCC(RK) 31 -1 WSCC(SW) 53 -3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 46 35 45 34 24 65 66 45 Max 48 42 51 39 33 70 72 53 Min 43 32 42 30 17 62 62 40 Range 5 10 9 9 16 8 10 13 StD-P 2.2 3.0 2.4 2.8 4.5 1.8 2.6 3.8 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Tuesday, November 27, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 50 +2 ERCOT(SP) 65 +3 FRCC(SE) 78 +1 MAAC(NE) 57 +3 MAIN(CTR) 41 +1 MAPP(HP) 29 -2 NPCC(NE) 49 +2 SERC(SE) 65 +3 SPP(SP) 48 NC WSCC(NW) 40 -2 WSCC(RK) 30 -1 WSCC(SW) 53 -4     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 43 25 46 33 20 65 56 46 Max 47 31 52 40 32 67 62 52 Min 39 20 41 28 13 62 51 40 Range 8 11 11 12 19 5 11 12 StD-P 2.0 3.6 4.4 3.8 5.5 1.4 3.6 4.6 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 8: Wednesday, November 28, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 34 +1 ERCOT(SP) 58 +6 FRCC(SE) 71 +1 MAAC(NE) 53 +13 MAIN(CTR) 27 -2 MAPP(HP) 21 +2 NPCC(NE) 49 +8 SERC(SE) 61 +11 SPP(SP) 39 +2 WSCC(NW) 31 +4 WSCC(RK) 25 +6 WSCC(SW) 48 +6     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 32 24 47 34 26 63 53 49 Max 36 32 50 41 36 65 59 57 Min 27 17 44 31 21 62 46 45 Range 9 15 6 10 15 3 13 12 StD-P 3.3 3.7 2.1 3.1 3.4 0.8 2.6 2.3 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Thursday, November 29, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 30 NC ERCOT(SP) 64 +3 FRCC(SE) 70 -3 MAAC(NE) 34 NC MAIN(CTR) 33 +6 MAPP(HP) 35 +15 NPCC(NE) 33 -1 SERC(SE) 58 +3 SPP(SP) 50 +9 WSCC(NW) 31 +5 WSCC(RK) 36 +20 WSCC(SW) 49 +11     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 29 40 33 31 60 57 47 Max 33 38 45 35 38 63 61 49 Min 26 20 33 31 24 56 51 44 Range 7 18 12 4 14 7 10 5 StD-P 2.3 6.4 4.5 1.4 5.5 1.6 3.9 2.0 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 10: Friday, November 30, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 41 +6 ERCOT(SP) 70 +13 FRCC(SE) 69 -3 MAAC(NE) 33 -5 MAIN(CTR) 49 +20 MAPP(HP) 46 +27 NPCC(NE) 27 -3 SERC(SE) 58 -6 SPP(SP) 63 +24 WSCC(NW) 33 +2 WSCC(RK) 32 +17 WSCC(SW) 48 +7     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 30 32 31 26 57 61 42 Max 47 43 37 33 34 60 69 48 Min 27 21 28 30 17 53 49 33 Range 20 22 9 3 17 7 20 15 StD-P 7.4 8.4 2.8 1.2 6.4 1.9 6.5 5.3 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]