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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Friday, Jan 11, 2002 at 07:35AM EST    Commentary last updated: Friday, Jan 11, 2002 at 09:42AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote     Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS  or Aquila    New! >> Printable PDF Trader Summary  (You must have Adobe Acrobat Reader  to open or print a PDF)   Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'      Today: Friday, January 11, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 41 +1 ERCOT(SP) 58 +1 FRCC(SE) 72 -1 MAAC(NE) 45 NC MAIN(CTR) 43 +4 MAPP(HP) 42 +4 NPCC(NE) 39 -1 SERC(SE) 59 +2 SPP(SP) 55 +5 WSCC(NW) 45 +2 WSCC(RK) 42 +1 WSCC(SW) 62 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 37 40 38 43 33 59 53 57 Max 42 47 42 46 42 63 58 62 Min 34 35 36 39 26 55 47 53 Range 8 12 6 7 16 8 11 9 StD-P 2.5 3.6 1.4 2.0 4.2 2.1 2.9 2.5 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:   Big Storm may form off the New England coast this weekend. Energy from the Pacific criss crosses the country next week. Arctic air gets closer but remains North of the border.  The New England storm will be a near miss it appears this weekend as it bombs out to sea. Perhaps Eastern Mass. gets a brush by but otherwise its a light rain/snow wind event. The next system of note comes in to the NW this weekend and develops low pressure in the Central Plains by Tuesday. North of the track even though temperatures remain above normal, they won't be of the record warmth this week. It will be cold enough to lay down some snow North of 35 degrees Latitude. The SE then starts to warm up relative to normal as high pressure slips off the coast. While it may be a seasonably active period, five day temperature numbers wil! l likely average above normal nationwide.     Tomorrow: Saturday, January 12, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 41 +4 ERCOT(SP) 60 NC FRCC(SE) 73 NC MAAC(NE) 44 +4 MAIN(CTR) 38 +1 MAPP(HP) 35 NC NPCC(NE) 34 +4 SERC(SE) 54 NC SPP(SP) 50 -2 WSCC(NW) 45 +2 WSCC(RK) 43 +1 WSCC(SW) 62 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 36 39 36 42 37 56 53 58 Max 42 47 42 46 43 63 58 62 Min 33 33 31 38 30 52 46 54 Range 9 14 11 8 13 11 12 8 StD-P 2.4 4.0 3.1 2.0 3.7 3.1 3.7 2.6 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Sunday, January 13, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 35 -4 ERCOT(SP) 61 -2 FRCC(SE) 70 -2 MAAC(NE) 44 NC MAIN(CTR) 34 -1 MAPP(HP) 31 +1 NPCC(NE) 37 +5 SERC(SE) 55 NC SPP(SP) 52 +2 WSCC(NW) 37 NC WSCC(RK) 35 +2 WSCC(SW) 59 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 37 36 36 32 52 55 56 Max 38 43 39 45 43 59 61 61 Min 28 33 33 31 24 47 49 52 Range 10 10 6 14 19 12 12 9 StD-P 3.0 2.6 1.8 3.5 5.2 4.2 3.1 2.6 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 4: Monday, January 14, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 35 -3 ERCOT(SP) 63 +2 FRCC(SE) 72 -1 MAAC(NE) 38 -2 MAIN(CTR) 34 NC MAPP(HP) 29 +2 NPCC(NE) 28 -2 SERC(SE) 55 NC SPP(SP) 48 +2 WSCC(NW) 37 -2 WSCC(RK) 33 +3 WSCC(SW) 57 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 32 32 34 31 54 54 54 Max 35 39 38 40 38 58 60 59 Min 31 27 24 30 24 50 47 49 Range 4 12 14 10 14 8 13 10 StD-P 1.3 3.9 5.3 2.8 4.4 2.7 4.0 2.9 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 5: Tuesday, January 15, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 37 NC ERCOT(SP) 64 +5 FRCC(SE) 70 NC MAAC(NE) 39 -5 MAIN(CTR) 35 +4 MAPP(HP) 27 +4 NPCC(NE) 28 -3 SERC(SE) 56 +2 SPP(SP) 49 +8 WSCC(NW) 38 -1 WSCC(RK) 29 NC WSCC(SW) 56 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 32 30 30 34 27 53 58 51 Max 34 35 37 39 36 58 61 57 Min 28 25 20 29 19 47 53 46 Range 6 10 17 10 17 11 8 11 StD-P 1.5 2.4 4.8 2.8 5.2 3.3 2.6 3.6 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:  I continue to see forecasts in the 6-10 day period calling for cold weather. The NWS outlook is below normal almost nationwide. But, notice they go near normal in the Northern Plains. That is significant as it refers to source region of air masses. If the North is above normal short term and near normal mid term then where is the alleged arctic air coming from? What may actually happen is a re-development of the broad trough occurs over the Eastern half of the country next week. That is straight out of the MRF playbook. The operational runs of the Canadian and European do not concur. I certainly accept no ridge in the Eastern U.S. but the bottom line in my view is this still is not a very cold pattern. The NWS had NO ONE , not one location above normal in their 6-10 day period. I think most of the South and East w! ill run above normal during the period, just not excessively so. The North and West will run close to normal. Interestingly enough, the European day 10 looks to be the coldest of the medium range models. Since it seems to be my favorite this winter, there could be some credibility to some arctic air the last 10 days of the month. But, even its appearance makes it difficult in my view for any real cold to get very far South.     Day 6: Wednesday, January 16, 2002  Click Here  for Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information.  Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 37 +4 ERCOT(SP) 58 +3 FRCC(SE) 72 +2 MAAC(NE) 43 +2 MAIN(CTR) 29 NC MAPP(HP) 19 -2 NPCC(NE) 33 +2 SERC(SE) 54 +2 SPP(SP) 39 -1 WSCC(NW) 42 NC WSCC(RK) 30 NC WSCC(SW) 56 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 27 32 36 24 55 56 50 Max 34 30 36 42 32 59 64 56 Min 24 20 28 31 15 50 48 44 Range 10 10 8 11 17 9 16 12 StD-P 1.8 1.9 1.5 3.3 5.3 2.6 5.2 3.8 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Thursday, January 17, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 34 +1 ERCOT(SP) 56 +1 FRCC(SE) 72 +4 MAAC(NE) 43 +5 MAIN(CTR) 27 -1 MAPP(HP) 21 -3 NPCC(NE) 34 +4 SERC(SE) 51 +2 SPP(SP) 44 +2 WSCC(NW) 42 NC WSCC(RK) 34 -1 WSCC(SW) 57 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 27 28 35 37 26 56 52 51 Max 33 32 41 42 35 62 63 57 Min 22 23 30 33 19 51 40 46 Range 11 9 11 9 16 11 23 11 StD-P 2.4 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 3.1 7.3 2.7 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 8: Friday, January 18, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 28 -1 ERCOT(SP) 52 +8 FRCC(SE) 63 +1 MAAC(NE) 34 +5 MAIN(CTR) 26 -5 MAPP(HP) 20 -13 NPCC(NE) 35 +9 SERC(SE) 42 +2 SPP(SP) 37 -3 WSCC(NW) 38 -1 WSCC(RK) 20 -7 WSCC(SW) 51 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 25 26 32 38 26 53 52 52 Max 31 31 34 42 33 60 60 58 Min 23 24 26 34 20 46 45 49 Range 8 7 8 8 13 14 15 9 StD-P 1.4 2.1 2.0 2.1 4.1 4.2 3.7 2.7 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Saturday, January 19, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 28 -3 ERCOT(SP) 48 -2 FRCC(SE) 69 +7 MAAC(NE) 38 +3 MAIN(CTR) 17 -14 MAPP(HP) 18 -13 NPCC(NE) 31 -1 SERC(SE) 46 +2 SPP(SP) 38 -5 WSCC(NW) 36 -3 WSCC(RK) 29 NC WSCC(SW) 51 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 21 29 30 36 30 51 50 52 Max 26 30 33 42 35 55 54 58 Min 14 24 25 34 26 45 46 49 Range 12 6 8 8 9 10 8 9 StD-P 3.0 1.3 2.2 2.5 2.9 1.8 2.8 2.7 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 10: Sunday, January 20, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 25 -3 ERCOT(SP) 60 +6 FRCC(SE) 63 +3 MAAC(NE) 34 NC MAIN(CTR) 29 -5 MAPP(HP) 27 -10 NPCC(NE) 28 -5 SERC(SE) 43 +1 SPP(SP) 45 -3 WSCC(NW) 33 -5 WSCC(RK) 22 -9 WSCC(SW) 49 -5     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 22 25 22 30 21 44 52 42 Max 28 29 29 33 24 48 57 49 Min 14 18 11 26 16 37 44 34 Range 14 11 18 7 8 11 13 15 StD-P 5.7 4.2 5.5 3.0 2.1 4.2 3.4 6.5 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]