Weather Headlines
Wednesday January 30, 2002
A major winter storm will pound the Plains, Lakes and New England the next
couple of days. Medium range models now suggest this may NOT be winters
final gasp.
I don't believe I hype storms as much as many forecasters, but the current
storm now forming in the Plains deserves some attention. Some serious snow
and ice accumulations are possible from Oklahoma NE to Wisconsin and
eventually to Interior New England. Copious rains will fall in the warm
sector. This storm should end the recent record warmth in the East with
signs now that it may not return for sometime. One thing that has my
attention is this current situation is colder than forecasted in the cold
sector of the storm and that's the first time this winter the models have
underdone the cold. Until now, its been the other way around. I am not
looking for anything bitter under a split flow jet stream, but its late
January and early February and it can still get cold. Also, the pattern
while temporarily taking a break from the storms after this current event
looks to reload again in the medium range. The short term temperatures
still reflect the heat in front of this winter storm, so most of the East
is still above normal while the West is below.
There are several considerations in the 6-10 day period. First, we could
briefly turn on the "Lake Effect" snow machine with a weak Clipper system
early next week. This should not be anywhere near the magnitude of the
Buffalo Christmas event, but is the first one since then. It drags a
moderately cold airmass in behind it. Then, later in the period the
Southern jet stream becomes active once again. Most models show another
sizeable winter storm mid to late next week and at a farther South latitude
than the current one. Now, I don't see this 6-10 day period as particularly
cold in a relative sense though certainly it will be chillier than recent
periods. Numbers may turn out a bit below normal especially over the
Northern half of the USA. Some of the models just past this period suggest
a more significant Canadian high would be poised to drop down. The warming
of the Canadian prairies does not look as likely as I have thought over the
past few days, so this idea may have some merit. If the surface pressures
forecast turn out to verify, the ocean indices(NAO and PNA) switch their
signals and we get some snowcover the next 10 days from potential storms,
then this may all come to pass. It would not be an exaggeration to suggest
the coldest air mass of the season could come down the second week of
February.
For the period Wednesday January 30 through Sunday February 3, expect the
following temperature trends:
Average 4 to 9-degrees below normal: Rockies, Southern and Central Plains,
All of the Western US...
Average 1 to 3-degrees below normal: Northern Plains...
Average 1 to 3- degrees above normal: Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, Great
Lakes..
Average 4 to 6-degrees above normal: Northeast ...
Average 7 to 12-degrees above normal: Mid-Atlantic, Gulf Coast,
Southeast...
Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist APB Energy / True Quote