economy starts looking better when energy costs fall 30-50%

-----Original Message-----
From: Fraser, Jennifer 
Sent: Monday, June 25, 2001 5:51 AM
To: Arnold, John
Subject: one more thing to consider


the economic picture is not rosy. it's hard to see hoe we get the miracle recovery in q3 or even q4. Have you formed an opinion on this?

-----Original Message-----
From: Arnold, John 
Sent: Sunday, June 24, 2001 12:03 PM
To: Fraser, Jennifer
Subject: RE: aga


no, the opposite.  saying price drop hasnt brought us closer to equilibrium.  we absolutley cant continue this loss of demand, otherwise we end up at 3.2 and the industry doesnt want to /cant end up there.   thus you must pick up at least some demand.  price must keep dropping .   price dropped $1.5 and haven't gained any demand.  that's the scary thing.  how much does it have to drop before we do find it?

-----Original Message----- 
From: Fraser, Jennifer 
Sent: Fri 6/22/2001 6:31 AM 
To: Arnold, John 
Cc: 
Subject: RE: aga



so you think we could pop on on the heels of increased demand because of low prices....assuming demand returned to normal how do you think there economic conditions will mitigate this.  

 -----Original Message----- 
From:   Arnold, John  
Sent:   Thursday, June 21, 2001 2:55 PM 
To:     Fraser, Jennifer 
Subject:        RE: aga 

        cost about 200,000-300,000 

        our internal estimates were in the 102-106 range, so no.  i think pira overestimating the gas gen burn for the week.  problem is there is no real good burn for at least two weeks going forward.  we've dropped $1.5 in a couple months and havent picked up an mmbtu of demand.  that's a big problem

 -----Original Message----- 
From:   Fraser, Jennifer  
Sent:   Thursday, June 21, 2001 6:36 AM 
To:     Arnold, John 
Subject:        aga 

1- did the intern help or hurt you? 
2- do u buy PIRA's suggestion a correction is looming?