T H U R S D A Y   E V E N I N G   E X T R E M E   M A R K E T S
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Thursday: The CRB Index is higher 0.36 points to 187.29. The
US Dollar Index moved up 0.52 points to 120.25.

The Dow Industrials trended higher 157.00 points, at 9920.00, while
the S&P 500 gained 16.64 points, last seen at 1130.21. The
Nasdaq Composite trended higher 20.68 points to 1934.12.
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E X T R E M E   M A R K E T   C O M M E N T A R Y
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The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes

Stock indexes closed higher on Wednesday in a delayed reaction to the
Fed.'s decision to leave interest rates unchanged for now. The market
interpreted this inaction on the part of the Fed as a sign that
economic recovery is beginning. At the same time, gains were limited
as investors remain suspicious about accounting irregularities in
business following the Enron debacle. The NASDAQ fell short of
testing the 38% retracement level of the September- January rally
crossing at 1826.96 before a short covering rally triggered by a
delayed response to today's decision by the Fed to leave interest
rates unchanged pulled the index into positive territory on the day.
The NASDAQ closed up 20.45 points at 1913.44. The March S&P 500 index
also closed higher on Wednesday after spiking below the 38%
retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 1087.97.
Additional strength on Thursday is needed to confirm today's upside
reversal thereby increasing the odds that a short- term bottom has
been posted. The March S&P 500 closed up 15.00 points at 1115.50.

The Dow posted an upside reversal on Wednesday and closed above
broken fib support crossing at 9706.20. However, closes above
Monday's high at 9908.10 are needed to temper the near-term bearish
outlook in the Dow. Today's rally was in reaction to the Fed.'s
decision to leave interest rates unchanged for the time being, which
indicates that it believes a recovery has begun in the economy. Solid
gains in Home Depot, Wal-Mart, Honeywell and IBM led the late-session
rally in the Dow.

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest

March T-bonds closed lower on Wednesday following the Fed.'s decision
to leave interest rates unchanged in today's FOMC meeting. However,
the Fed left its easing bias in place should further stimulus be
needed to shore up the economy. The late-day sell off sets the stage
for additional weakness in access trading that could lead to a test
of broken trendline resistance crossing near 102-00 on Thursday.
Short-term momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that sideways
to lower prices are possible near-term as the market is caught
between business accounting concerns and prospects for an improving
economy.

The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes

The CRB index closed lower on Wednesday pressured by weakness in
grains, some precious metals, fiber and energies. The CRB index is
closing in on the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally,
which crosses at 185.93. If this support level fails to halt this
month's decline, the door would be open for a possible test of last
fall's low crossing at 182.83 later this winter. Short-term momentum
indicators are oversold but indicate that additional weakness is
possible near-term. However, weekly indicators are on the verge of
rolling over, which would increase the odds that the CRB could
ultimately breakout below the double bottom on the monthly chart
later this year.

ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy

The energy markets closed lower on Wednesday following the release of
this week's API inventory reports, which were termed bearish. Crude
oil stocks rose by 27,000 barrels last week, as total stocks are now
some 11% above year-ago levels. Gasoline stocks rose by 2.743 million
barrels although distillate stocks including heating oil fell by
150,000 barrels but supplies are still 25% above year ago levels.
Traders will be closely watching this week's DOE inventory report for
corroboration of rising energy inventories. The AGA inventory report
for natural gas will be released later today.

March crude oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below minor
trendline support thereby confirming that a short-term top was posted
on Monday. The door is open for a possible challenge of January's low
crossing at 18.45 in early- February. Closes below this support level
could lead to an eventual test of November's low crossing at 17.55
later this winter. Momentum indicators such as stochastics and the
RSI are turning bearish with this week setback hinting that a test of
fall lows is possible later this year.

March heating oil closed lower on Wednesday following Tuesday's
mildly bearish inventory report. Today's low fell short of testing
the lower boundary of this winter's trading range crossing at 51.20.
Closes below this support level would confirm a range breakout and
could lead to a test of weekly support crossing at 49.30 later this
winter. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish with this week's
sell off signaling that we could see a spike to new contract lows
before a low is posted.

March unleaded gas extended this week's sell off on Wednesday
following Tuesday's bearish API inventory report. Today's sell off
sets the stage for a possible test of last fall's uptrend line
crossing near 55.55. Closes below this support level would open the
door for a possible challenge of last fall's low crossing at 51.90
later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish once
again and signals that a new low for the year is possible in the near
future.

March Henry Hub natural gas closed modestly higher on Wednesday due
to short covering ahead of the release of today's AGA inventory
report. This week's AGA inventory report showed a draw of 111 bcf
last week as U.S. working gas in storage is 70% full. Traders are
calling the report bearish. However, the sell off from mid-January
has already discounted some of this bearish news. A higher close on
Thursday would confirm this analysis while leaving the door open for
a possible short covering bounce into early- February. If the decline
continues, weekly support crossing at 1.76 is March's next target
later this winter.

CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies

The March Dollar posted an upside reversal on Wednesday thereby
ending the one-day setback off Monday's high. The door remains open
for a resumption of this winter's rally and a possible test of weekly
resistance crossing at 121.29 later this week. Today's rally was
supported by revised fourth-quarter GDP estimates. Additional support
was due to expectations for further improvement in the economy
although some of the expected recovery has already been priced into
the Dollar. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought hinting at the
very least that we could see a brief pause near current prices.

The March Swiss Franc posted a potential downside reversal on
Wednesday signaling a likely end to this week's short covering
bounce. The stage is set for additional weakness and a likely test of
December's low crossing at .5797 later this winter. The daily ADX is
bearish signaling that additional weakness near-term is likely.

The March Canadian Dollar posted an inside day with a higher close on
Wednesday however, it failed to close above the previous reaction
high crossing at .6300. Closes above this resistance level are needed
to confirm this week's trendline breakout and that a bottom has been
posted. Stochastics are bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible into mid-February.

The March Japanese Yen extended this week's short covering rebound on
Wednesday and spiked above broken weekly support crossing at .7558.
Closes above this broken support level and last fall's downtrend line
crossing near .7590 are needed to confirm a bottom has been posted.
Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible into early-February.

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals

February gold closed slightly higher on Wednesday due to short
covering following the Fed.'s decision to hold the line in interest
rates for the time being. February gold is challenging minor
resistance crossing at 282. Closes above this resistance level would
open the door for a test of broken trendline support crossing near
284.10. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and turning neutral to
bullish hinting that a short-term bottom is in or near.

March silver closed modestly lower on Wednesday leaving Tuesday's key
reversal up unconfirmed. Momentum indicators are oversold hinting
that a low might be in or is near following this week's test of the
75% retracement level crossing at 4.22. Closes above broken fib
support crossing at 4.32 are needed before a low can be confirmed.

March copper drifted lower on Wednesday and appears poised to test
the bottom of last week's trading range crossing at 69.20 later this
week. Closes below last week's low crossing at 69.20 would open the
door for a larger-degree decline during February.. Momentum
indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible into early February.

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains

March corn closed fractionally lower on Wednesday as session lows
came with in a penny of weekly support crossing that crosses at 2.04
1/4. Light pressure came from spillover weakness from wheat, concerns
over sluggish export demand and a rebound in the U.S. Dollar today.
Trader's will closely watching Thursday's export sales report for
signs that foreign demand might be picking up. Bulls continue to
suggest that this year's export sales will be backend loaded. In the
meantime, there is little incentive for foreign customers or domestic
end users to shift their buying pattern from hand to mouth as prices
continue to erode from last July's high. Seasonally, corn prices tend
to decline into February when a mid-winter low is due to be posted.
The current decline suggests that the February low might be posted
early in the month if weekly support crossing at 2.04 1/4 halts the
decline. Short-term momentum indicators are bearish but have entered
their respective oversold zones hinting that a low might be near.

March wheat gapped down and closed sharply lower on Wednesday as much
needed precip has fallen across the southern Plains. The bearish
weather triggered another round of fund selling that pressured the
market to new lows for month, which fell just short of testing the
late-December low crossing at 2.83. If this support level fails to
halt this month's decline, a test of the December low crossing at
2.77 is likely by early-February. Recent strength in the U.S. Dollar
has made U.S. wheat less competitive on the world market especially
since Argentina is resuming wheat exports. Momentum indicators remain
bearish signaling that additional weakness is likely into
early-February.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains

March soybeans posted an inside day with a fractionally higher close
on Wednesday. Light support was due to short covering triggered by
ideas that soybean prices have become oversold and too cheap.
However, upside potential appears limited due to improving weather
conditions across South America and a narrowing window of opportunity
to export on the world market without competing with South American
exports. Technically, March soybeans continue to consolidate above
the 75% retracement level of January's rally, which crosses at 4.24
3/4. Closes below this support level would more than likely open the
door for a test of this month's low crossing at 4.15 3/4 by
early-February. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are likely into early-February before a
mid-winter low is due to be posted.

March soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday however, a short
covering bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's loss.
March continues to hover above gap support crossing at 147.90 and
below this the 75% retracement level of January's rally crossing at
147. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are still possible into early-February. While Thursday's
export sales report is expected to show strong sales, this is old
news to a market, which has been focused on South America's
potentially record crop for most of the winter. Now that South
American weather is improving, there is little incentive for new
buying to enter the market. Therefore I am looking for additional
weakness into mid-February and a possible test of January's low of
142 before a bottom is finally posted.

LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock

April hogs posted a key reversal up and closed above weekly
resistance crossing at 61.13 on Wednesday. Today's rally was
triggered by ideas that packers could encounter a short-term supply
squeeze, which could be exaggerated by the winter snowstorm that is
moving across portions of the Midwest today and could last into
Thursday bringing with it up to 10 inches of snow in places. However,
today's rally was limited due to forecasts calling for steady to
50-cent lower cash bids on Thursday. With packer margins shrinking
due to falling product prices, it is unlikely that they will be very
aggressive with their cash bids. However, traders might decide to
ignore the short-term bearish cash fundamentals and opt to trade the
short-term friendly technicals near- term. Closes above the contract
high crossing at 61.90 would renew April's rally off last fall's low
and could lead to a test of weekly resistance crossing at 63.60 later
this winter. Momentum indicators are turning neutral to bullish
hinting that sideways to higher prices are still possible into
early-February.

April cattle closed slightly higher on Wednesday as a winter storm
across the Plains and portions of the Midwest sparked additional
short covering. However, today's rally was stopped in its tracks as
it neared the 75% retracement level of last year's decline, which
crosses at 76.00. After rallying for the past three days, I would not
be surprised to see a round of profit taking on Thursday as April
might try to consolidate recent gains below this resistance level. If
this resistance level is cleared, we could see April test the lower
boundary of last summer's trading range crossing at 77.10 later this
winter. Momentum indicators are bullish but diverging, which is a
warning to bulls that a short-term top might be near.

FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food

March coffee closed higher on Wednesday due to light short covering
following Tuesday's spike to a new contract low. However, short
covering faded ahead of the close, which allowed prices to drift
towards the bottom of today's trading range. March is at a crossroads
as it is challenging the lower boundary of this winter's trading
range. The latest report from the Association of Coffee Producing
Countries highlighted the market's negative fundamental outlook as it
forecasted a 15-million 60-kilogram bag surplus in export supplies
for the 2001-02 marketing year. Closes below trading range support
crossing at 44.75 would confirm a breakout while opening the door for
a test of psychological support crossing at 40-cents later this
winter.

March cocoa posted its highest close in two and a half weeks on
Wednesday due to renewed trade and speculator buying. Light support
came from reports of a police strike in the Ivory Coast, limited
hedge pressure and technical buying as buy stops were triggered above
1368. However, the choppy rebound off the early-January low is an
indication that the market continues to mark time as a distribution
top continues to form. Closes above 1422 or below 1260 are needed to
confirm a breakout of this winter's trading range and point the
direction of the next trending move.

March sugar extended this month's decline and closed below last
November's reaction low crossing at 661 on Wednesday. Multiple closes
below this support level would open the door for additional weakness
and a possible test of last October's low crossing at 611 during
February. Momentum indicators have entered their respective oversold
zones but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is
possible near-term.

March cotton broke out below minor support marked by last week's low
at 35.95 on Wednesday thereby renewing its decline off January's
double top. The stage is set for a likely test of the lower boundary
of this winter's trading range, which crosses at 34.91. Light
pressure came from increased producer selling. Momentum indicators
remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible into
early-February. Closes above 39.80 or below 34.91 are needed to
confirm a breakout of this winter's trading range.

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E X T R E M E   F U T U R E S
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Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/

WINNERS

HGN2   Copper Jul 2002                            0.7480    0.0395  +5.58
HOG2   Heating Oil Feb 2002                       0.5229    0.0231  +4.54
NGH2   Henry Hub Natural Gas Mar 2002              2.138     0.070  +3.37
SCH2   Brent Crude Oil Mar 2002                    19.18      0.53  +2.82
QLZ2   Central Appalachian Coal Dec 2002           26.15      0.65  +2.55
HUH2   New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Mar 20    0.5742    0.0136  +2.42
CLH2   Light Sweet Crude Oil Mar 2002              19.48      0.40  +2.10
GIG2   Goldman Sachs Commodity Index Feb 2002     166.60      2.80  +1.71
AFH2   Aluminum Mar 2002                          0.6590    0.0095  +1.49
SEF3   Sugar #14 Domestic Jan 2003                 21.05      0.31  +1.49

LOSERS

AGG2   Silver 1,000 oz. Feb 2002                   4.001    -0.249  -5.86
SBK2   Sugar #11 World May 2002                     5.76     -0.22  -3.68
PLN2   Platinum Jul 2002                           440.2      -9.7  -2.17
PAM2   Palladium Jun 2002                         369.00     -8.00  -2.11
SIN2   Silver Jul 2002                             4.250    -0.088  -2.04
CCH2   Cocoa Mar 2002                               1344       -25  -1.83
XOH2   Oats Mar 2002                             200 1/4    -3 1/2  -1.73
DAJ3   BFP Milk Apr 2003                           11.75     -0.20  -1.67
JYM2   Japanese Yen Jun 2002                    0.007471 -0.000124  -1.64
YIH2   Mini NY Silver Mar 2002                     4.221    -0.070  -1.63

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E X T R E M E   S T O C K S
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Updated every 10 minutes around the clock.
More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/

WINNERS

JTWO   J2 COMMUNICATIONS                          8.4700    3.1975  +68.76
VISG   VISAGE TECHNOLOGY INC                      9.5000    2.1500  +29.45
STOR   STORAGENETWORKS INC                        5.1400    0.9000  +22.06
TWP    TREX COMPANY INC                            21.50      3.30  +17.98
OIIM   O2MICRO INTERNATIONAL LTD                 24.1800    3.6700  +17.82
PTA    PENN TREATY AMERICAN                         5.95      0.85  +17.17
NETE   NETEGRITY INC                             15.6500    2.2400  +17.01
OSIS   OSI SYSTEMS                               25.1700    3.6400  +16.87
SYPR   SYPRIS SOLUTIONS                          16.3500    2.3500  +16.79
TFCO   TUFCO TECHNOLOGIES                         6.0000    0.8800  +16.30

LOSERS

MATR   MATRIA HEALTHCARE INC                     24.2500   -9.2700  -27.51
RDEN   ELIZABETH ARDEN INC                       10.0600   -3.6400  -26.00
ELN+B  ELAN CORP PLC WTS CL B                      11.00     -2.45  -20.33
HTRN   HEALTH TRONICS SURGICAL SERV              10.0000   -1.4975  -13.02
DRRX   DURECT CORP                                8.9000   -1.3000  -12.48
MIMS   MIM CORP                                  16.7500   -2.3600  -12.42
FLO    FLOWERS FOODS INC                           25.00     -3.55  -12.35
SYNP   SYNPLICITY INC                             7.0500   -1.0700  -12.30
ICI    IMPERIAL CHEM IND ADR                       19.05     -2.62  -12.07
ATRO   ASTRONICS CORP                            11.5300   -1.4100  -11.10
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