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NEWS RELEASE
FROM THE
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION

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For Immediate Release: November 20, 2001
News Media Contact: Claudia Chandler - 916-654-4989


Summer 2002 Electricity Forecast Calls Upon
Continued Conservation and New Power Plants
To Get California through Next Summer


The California Energy Commission forecasts that the State
would have adequate supplies of electricity to meet next
summer's electricity demand as long as planned power plants
are built and current levels of conservation continue. The
2002 Monthly Electricity Forecast projected electricity
supplies and demand over the next nine months. While the
report assumes that the market will function normally, price
spikes continue to be a concern if electricity supplies are
tight.

Energy conservation efforts by consumers and businesses
played a critical role in helping the State avoid blackouts
this past summer. Clearly the State's $800 million
investment in energy efficiency including the voluntary
conservation efforts achieved through the Governor's Flex
Your Power public awareness campaign and 20/20 utility
rebate program were key contributors to reducing electricity
demand last summer. An important question in forecasting
electricity demand is how much of last summer's conservation
efforts will continue next summer? If summer 2002
conservation efforts stay the same or decline only
moderately, the State should have adequate electricity
supplies to meet demand.

July may present the most challenging month for the State's
supply and demand balance next summer. The Energy Commission
projects a supply surplus of approximately 340 megawatts
including new generation of 4,000 megawatts expected on line
by July 2002. In an emergency declared by the Independent
System Operator, there are also an additional 1,700
megawatts of electricity that could be available from large
users participating in interruptible/emergency demand
responsive programs.

A key concern continues to be whether there are adequate
electricity supplies for all regions of the State. This
overall statewide supply and demand electricity balance does
not, however, focus on the problem of local area reliability
issues. Problems with transmission line congestion and
generation in a specific region could result in constrained
supplies and local distribution problems.

To meet California's electricity crisis, the Governor
established Emergency Executive Orders that streamlined the
licensing of new power plants and encouraged new generation
from a variety of sources to meet Summer 2001 electricity
demand. Twelve Energy Commission licensed power plants,
including ten simple cycle units, added 2,100 megawatts of
new generation to the State's electricity system this year.
There also was an additional 1,400 megawatts of new
generation available from restarting and/or boosting
generation from existing power plants, adding new renewable
energy facilities, and new power plants that were licensed
by local jurisdictions.

The Joint Legislative Audit Committee requested the
Commission's electricity supply and demand analysis for the
summers of 2002 through 2004. The 2002 Monthly Electricity
Forecast: California Supply/Demand Capacity Balances for
January ? September 2002 and the California Summer
Electricity Outlook for 2002-2004 provide the analysis and
assumptions used in responding to the Committee's request.
The reports will be presented at the Joint Legislative Audit
Committee hearing at 9 a.m. on November 26, 2001.

Both reports are available at the Energy Commission's web
site:

www.energy.ca.gov/reports/

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Do your part to help during California's Electricity Crisis.
Set your computer and monitor to go to sleep or energy
saver  mode during the business day.  And turn your
computer and monitor off at the power strip or surge
protector when you leave at the end of  the day or over
the weekend.

To learn more about what you can do go to:

http://www.flexyourpower.ca.gov


Bob Aldrich
Web Development Team
California Energy Commission
916-654-4989

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