As you will read in the message below, CERA is still making some final revisions to this report regarding its figures on interest on DWR debt.  I will forward the final paper on to you as soon as I get it.  

Attached is the first version of the report - numbers in this report may not be final.

Jennifer

 

 -----Original Message-----
From: 	Peter Moritzburke <PMoritzburke@CERA.com>@ENRON [mailto:IMCEANOTES-Peter+20Moritzburke+20+3CPMoritzburke+40CERA+2Ecom+3E+40ENRON@ENRON.com] 
Sent:	Monday, July 16, 2001 1:57 PM
To:	Thome, Jennifer
Subject:	RE: Paper


Jennifer, 
We have revised the analysis with the June 19 FERC Order, so that sum has changed. Through 2005 the figure is closer to $8 billion according to our estimates. That number includes carrying charges (at a borrowing rate of 6 percent) on total utility debt associated with buying energy in California up to this point, and past and future energy purchases by the state. 
I've seen a couple public estimates of this number other than our own but don't have the sources in hand. The state Controller Kathleen Connell has not shared the Governor's rosy views on the energy crisis and may have a realistic number out there. Let me know if you need more detail on this.
Sorry for the delayed response. I was on vacation last week. 
Peter 
************************************************ 
Peter F. Moritzburke 
Cambridge Energy Research Associates 
1999 Harrison Street, Suite 950 
Oakland, CA 94612 
p (510)874-4383 
f (510)874-4347 
************************************************ 
-----Original Message----- 
From: Jennifer.Thome@enron.com [mailto:Jennifer.Thome@enron.com ] 
Sent: Monday, July 09, 2001 10:56 AM 
To: Peter Moritzburke 
Subject: Re: Paper 
Peter: 
I understand from a colleague that this report estimates interest costs to 
cover DWR purchases at nearly $15 billion.  Could you give me an idea about 
where to find out more information about this? 
Thanks, 
Jennifer 
                                                                                                      
                    Peter                                                                             
                    Moritzburke          To:     "'Jennifer.Thome@enron.com'"                         
                    <PMoritzburke        <Jennifer.Thome@enron.com>                                   
                    @CERA.com>           cc:                                                          
                                         Subject:     Paper                                           
                    07/05/2001                                                                        
                    07:09 PM                                                                          
                                                                                                      
                                                                                                      
Jennifer, 
In response to your inquiry about the availability of the paper "Short 
Circuit: Will the California Energy Crisis Derail the State's Economy?", 
currently we are updating the analysis to incorporate the effects of the 
June 19 FERC Order implementing price caps. The paper will be available 
some time next week through the CERA website. 
Please don't hesitate to call with other questions. 
Peter 
************************************************ 
Peter F. Moritzburke 
Cambridge Energy Research Associates 
1999 Harrison Street, Suite 950 
Oakland, CA 94612 
p (510)874-4383 
f (510)874-4347 
************************************************