New Hurricane Forecast out of CSU

Renowned hurricane soothsayer Dr. William Gray and his team at Colorado State 
University have 
scaled back their forecast for the hurricane season but still expect the 
season to be more active than 
average. Seven rather than eight hurricanes are expected now and only three 
of them are expected 
to be intense rather than the four expected in the group's prior forecast on 
June 7. In round numbers, 
the August forecast is for three named storms, two hurricanes, and one 
intense or major hurricane. 

"Information obtained through July 2000 indicates that the Atlantic hurricane 
season in 2000 is likely 
to be less active than the four recent very busy years of 1995, 1996, 1998 
and 1999. However, total 
activity is expected to exceed the long term average and is anticipated to be 
considerably more 
active than the mean for the recent period of 1970 through 1994. 

"We estimate that the 2000 season will have seven hurricanes (average is 
5.7), 11 named storms 
(average is 9.3), 55 named storm days (average is 47), 30 hurricane days 
(average is 24), three 
intense (category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.2), six intense hurricane 
days (average is 4.7) and 
a Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) of 90 (average is 71). Collectively, 
net tropical cyclone 
activity in year 2000 is expected to be about 130% of the long term average. 

The early August forecast update is in close to Gray's Dec. 8, 1999) and 
April 7 forecasts, but 
somewhat lower than his recent June 7 update. "The forecast has been lowered 
slightly [because] 
June-July global circulation conditions have not progressed quite as 
favorably for hurricane 
enhancement than as we anticipated in our early June forecast," Gray said.