Title: Quarterly Natural Gas Watch: A Shortage of Demand 	
URL(s):	

http://www20.cera.com/eprofile?u=35&m=2789;


***********************************************************************

NO HELP FROM DEMAND: DIFFICULT TIME IN THE NORTH AMERICAN GAS MARKET

Since January, natural gas prices have fluctuated between $2.00 per MMBtu at 
the Henry Hub and $10.00, a result of weather, fuel switching, and increasing 
supplies. Loss of demand due to economic weakness is exacerbated by the impact 
of the tragedy of September 11. Lower prices have already slowed drilling 
activity. Although ample storage levels will guard against last year's peaks, 
gas prices will likely to continue to oscillate in the near term.  

* The US gas supply rebound expected after record drilling rates is now 
unlikely. CERA expects only modest production increases for 2001 and a year-
over-year decline for 2002.

* CERA has analyzed two paths for demand recovery depending on the severity and 
length of the economic downturn. Generally, the large overbuild of gas-fired 
generating plants and the recovery of industrial demand should cause much of 
the lost demand to return in 2002.


**end**

Follow above URL for complete CERA Watch (38 printed pages).

E-mail Category: Watch                                             
CERA Knowledge Area(s): North American Gas


***********************************************************************
***********************************************************************
CERA's Autumn 2001 Roundtable event dates and agendas 
are now available at http://www20.cera.com/event
***********************************************************************


To make changes to your cera.com profile go to:
http://www20.cera.com/client/updateaccount

Forgot your username and password? Go to:
http://www20.cera.com/client/forgot

This electronic message and attachments, if any, contain information 
from Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Inc. (CERA) which is 
confidential and may be privileged. Unauthorized disclosure, copying, 
distribution or use of the contents of this message or any attachments, 
in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited.
Terms of Use: http://www20.cera.com/tos
Questions/Comments: webmaster@cera.com
Copyright 2001. Cambridge Energy Research Associates