Here is a response from AGA to the Underground Storage Committee regarding the very low injection number reported two weeks ago.

I served on the AGA-USC when the report debuted and would be happy to share the USC's view should any of you be interested.

 -----Original Message-----
From: 	Wilson, Garry D.  
Sent:	Tuesday, September 04, 2001 1:21 PM
To:	Bieniawski, Paul
Subject:	FW: AGA's Weekly Storage Report -- FYI



 -----Original Message-----
From: 	"Denbow, Kimberly" <KDenbow@aga.org>@ENRON [mailto:IMCEANOTES-+22Denbow+2C+20Kimberly+22+20+3CKDenbow+40aga+2Eorg+3E+40ENRON@ENRON.com] 
Sent:	Tuesday, September 04, 2001 10:04 AM
To:	Goforth, Alex; Anton, Amanda; Theodos, Andrew F.; Stinson, Charles E.; Busch, David; Nightingale, David; Bender, Dennis J.; Matheson, Donald K.; Ostrovich, Edward; Metzger, Fred; Hill, G. Scott; Wilson, Garry D.; Keen, Gerald S.; Kelly, Glen; Royce, Gordon L.; Gettman, Greg; Welch, Greg; Theirl, Gregory; McCracken, Harold; Riley, Horace; Gatewood, Jack; Blasingame, James; Philo, James; Carlson, Jeff; Mohn, Jeryl L.; Chan, Joe; Wickens, John; Shelton, John D.; Deters, Joseph; Marusic, Joe; Benson, Karen G.; Sole, Karol A.; Keppel, Keith; Denbow, Kimberly; Lowe, Mark A.; Gredell, Mark; Fraser, Michael; Morley, Michael; Callahan, Patrick E.; Englehart, R. Alan; Harris, Ramon; Frear, Ray; Beard, Robert; Glosier, Robert A.; Nowaczewski, Stephen; Foh, Stephen; Bergin, Stephen R.; Jacobs, Stephen (Steve) R.; Kline, Steven L.; Symon, Terry; Kronas, Theodore; Puracchio, Thomas; Steinbauer, Thomas; Uding, William
Cc:	McGill, Chris; Traweek, Lori
Subject:	AGA's Weekly Storage Report -- FYI

Hello, everyone! I hope that you had a fine holiday weekend! Mine was
great!!

Several committee members have expressed an interest in learning more
about the events that lead to and resulted from the unexpected working
gas storage number reported a few weeks ago in the AGA American Gas
Storage Survey. At the committee's request, the following is a brief
message from Chris McGill, managing director of policy analysis,
regarding this activity. Please review the material below and attached.
By the end of this week or early next week, I will forward to you the
summary referenced in the final paragraph below for your comments and/or
concerns. Thank you. Have an awesome day!

-----Original Message-----
From: McGill, Chris
Sent: Tuesday, September 04, 2001 10:23 AM
To: Denbow, Kimberly
Cc: Wilkinson, Paul; Shin, David; Pierson, Paul
Subject:



To: AGA Underground Storage Committee Members:

Thank you for the opportunity to provide an update on the recent
activities of AGA's American Gas Storage Survey (AGSS). Certainly, the
voluntary survey and resulting estimates of working gas in storage for
the nation would not be possible without your help and support. There
are three issues I would like to cover in this message, including the
recent revision of working gas, an issue of continuing the reporting and
current procedures and methods.

Regarding the recent report and subsequent revision of working gas in
storage for the Consuming Region East, please know that we continue to
follow our procedures for data collection, verification and
distribution. Several weeks ago, we flagged several survey submittals
that seemed different from traditional patterns in the eastern region
for this time of year. Follow-up to the submittals was set in motion,
however, were not fully resolved until days after the Wednesday posting
period. It is our policy to consider eliminating certain data
submittals, if questions arise about the validity of the data. In this
case, inclusion of the data or elimination of the data from the
computational spreadsheets did not change the fact that a very low net
build would be reported for the nation. Because of that we opted to go
forward with our estimates and continue to pursue our verification
efforts. Simply put, we don't make up numbers for companies when we have
an actual report in hand just to create a final estimate of working gas
changes that fits more closely with market expectations. What turned out
to be a clerical error in the data reported to us was discovered and a
revised survey submitted. Our revision of the estimates of working gas
in storage for the eastern region and the total US came one week later
at our normal reporting period, as is our stated policy for distributing
revisions to the public.

The fact is that we have revised our data about 25 times in the past 7.5
years (or about 400 weekly reports). Our accuracy can be clearly
documented by comparing the AGSS estimates to that of EIA. The attached
slides do just that, as well as show the current level of working gas
compared to the prior five-year average. What seems to have developed in
the natural gas market, particularly among traders, is a lack of
tolerance between what we report and what the market expects. In order
to continue our reach for consistency, we are reviewing our methods and
procedures to ensure that they continue to reflect the best practices of
completing a report such as the weekly estimates of working gas. Our
evolving methods and procedures issue brief is attached. Any comments
you have on the stated procedures or regarding this memorandum, in
general, can be directed to me.

Finally, the issue of whether we continue to report the estimates of
working gas publicly remains one to be considered by the AGA Board of
Directors. Like all projects at AGA, the AGSS come under periodic
scrutiny for its value to the members and to the gas market in general.
However, like many real-time information sources, the sequential data
set has become sensitive over time. Please be alerted to the fact that a
summary is being prepared by AGA for presentation to board members on
this issue. It is our intention to copy the Underground Storage
Committee on the documentation that is distributed. It seems likely that
if AGA discontinues the weekly reporting of working gas that some other
entity (federal or otherwise) will pick it up. Again, if you have
comments on this memorandum, the attachments to this memo or the AGSS
summary to be presented to the AGA Board (not attached but expected to
be copied to you soon) please make them to me or to the appropriate
person at your company.

I appreciate your attention to this matter. Your support of the American
Gas Storage Survey is gratefully acknowledged.


Christopher B. McGill
Manager Director, Policy Analysis

American Gas Association
400 N. Capitol St. NW, 4th Floor
Washington DC 20001

Tel: 202-824-7132
Fax: 202-824-7087
 <http://www.aga.org/> http://www.aga.org
 
 - Current Storage.ppt 
 - IB2001StorageProcedures.doc