Syncrasy - Weather for Business 
	


      Syncrasy, LLC?    713.228.8470 Off   713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue     Suite 1314      Houston, TX 77002    www.syncrasy.com      Sales:                   713.228.4407   Development Offices:   970.247.4139 Off   970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue       Suite 221        Durango, CO 81301   		    Complementary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.     - If you would like to receive this product first thing in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for subscription rates or send an email to sales@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com    - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to subscribe_tradersummary@syncrasy.com        Data last updated  Thursday, Jun 07, 2001 at 07:51AM EST    Commentary last updated  Thursday, Jun 07, 2001 at 08:47AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'     Today: Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun  7, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  74  NC  ERCOT(SP)  88  NC  FRCC(SE)  88  -1  MAAC(NE)  77  +2  MAIN(CTR)  74  NC  MAPP(HP)  71  -2  NPCC(NE)  75  +2  SERC(SE)  83  +2  SPP(SP)  83  +1  WSCC(NW)  74  NC  WSCC(RK)  77  -1  WSCC(SW)  88  +1      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   69 72 69 70 77 80 85 86  Max    75 77 76 76 81 85 89 89  Min     65 68 63 62 73 76 82 81  Range  10 9 13 14 8 9 7 8  StD-P  2.6 2.2 5.0 3.4 2.7 3.0 2.4 2.2  Count  9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9    Day 1-5 Discussion:  There are two big forecast questions to be answered in the short term. One concerns the future of Tropical Storm Allisons remnants and the second is how strong the trough redevelops in the East. Allison in the short term looks fairly easy to answer. With the main jet stream to the North and ridges East and West, Allison likely will not move very much. I still expect more significant rainfall along the Western Gulf Coast for the next 2-3 days though probably not quite as heavy as yesterday. Just as an aside, there is one model that pushes the remnants all the way into the Ohio valley next week and another that pushes them back into the Gulf waters where it could possibly regenerate. I am discounting both solutions for now with the feeling that it will eventually fizzle in Louisiana this weekend. The trough in the East should reamplify in the Gre! at Lakes by Friday and then linger in the NE through the five day period. I still expect temperatures to run a bit below normal though some warming is on the way. For the West, a strong upper low will crash into the PNW this weekend and move East towards the Northern Plains early next week. Light to moderate rain will accompany this feature. Temperatures will trend strongly below normal in the North. Some cooling perhaps to near normal will occur in the South.   Tomorrow: Summary Forecast for Fri, Jun  8, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  76  NC  ERCOT(SP)  87  -1  FRCC(SE)  88  NC  MAAC(NE)  78  NC  MAIN(CTR)  76  -1  MAPP(HP)  77  NC  NPCC(NE)  74  +1  SERC(SE)  83  NC  SPP(SP)  83  -1  WSCC(NW)  75  NC  WSCC(RK)  82  NC  WSCC(SW)  87  NC      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   72 77 68 69 80 79 84 84  Max    76 81 75 75 84 84 87 87  Min     67 74 62 62 77 76 81 78  Range  10 8 13 13 7 8 6 9  StD-P  2.7 2.0 4.5 4.2 2.4 2.8 2.0 2.2  Count  9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9   Day 3: Summary Forecast for Sat, Jun  9, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  77  NC  ERCOT(SP)  89  -2  FRCC(SE)  88  NC  MAAC(NE)  78  +1  MAIN(CTR)  79  NC  MAPP(HP)  79  -1  NPCC(NE)  73  NC  SERC(SE)  85  NC  SPP(SP)  87  -1  WSCC(NW)  68  -4  WSCC(RK)  84  -1  WSCC(SW)  84  NC      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   73 79 67 64 84 79 85 83  Max    79 83 75 69 87 85 89 85  Min     68 74 61 58 81 76 83 81  Range  10 9 14 11 7 9 6 4  StD-P  3.1 2.8 4.7 4.1 2.0 3.3 2.2 1.3  Count  7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7   Day 4: Summary Forecast for Sun, Jun 10, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  78  NC  ERCOT(SP)  91  -2  FRCC(SE)  88  -1  MAAC(NE)  81  +3  MAIN(CTR)  81  -1  MAPP(HP)  80  -1  NPCC(NE)  76  +1  SERC(SE)  87  NC  SPP(SP)  90  NC  WSCC(NW)  64  -3  WSCC(RK)  81  -2  WSCC(SW)  83  NC      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   74 80 67 58 82 80 87 81  Max    80 87 77 64 85 87 91 83  Min     70 75 63 53 80 77 84 80  Range  10 12 14 12 6 10 7 3  StD-P  2.5 4.0 4.1 4.4 1.9 2.7 2.1 1.1  Count  6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6   Day 5: Summary Forecast for Mon, Jun 11, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  82  NC  ERCOT(SP)  92  -2  FRCC(SE)  89  NC  MAAC(NE)  81  NC  MAIN(CTR)  83  NC  MAPP(HP)  76  -2  NPCC(NE)  75  +1  SERC(SE)  89  NC  SPP(SP)  90  -1  WSCC(NW)  67  +3  WSCC(RK)  75  -2  WSCC(SW)  82  NC      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   73 73 65 55 73 80 85 76  Max    80 86 77 67 81 88 92 82       65 59 59 40 53 72 73 57  Range  15 27 18 27 28 16 19 25  StD-P  3.1 8.2 4.0 5.2 6.7 3.0 4.1 6.3  Count  6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6    Day 6-10 discussion:  There is still no one model that meets my needs with regards to the evolving long term pattern. The European looks much too cold in the NE, the MRF as usual has flipped and now surges warm air into the NE and looks too warm there. The Canadian looks more reasonable in the East, but too strong and too far South with a trough in the West. Where there seems to be agreement is in the middle of the nation where a large ridge should reside. The ridge will result in a warmer than normal pattern in my view from the SW to the Central Plains to the Great Lakes. However, the departures do not look too significant. In addition there still appears to be opportunity for rainfall especially for the South and also East of the Mississippi. With all of the model uncertainty East and West, pattern recognition indicates to me that troughs will prevail in the NW a! nd NE given the ridge in the middle. The NW trough may be a little stronger than seasonal norms resulting in more cooler than normal air for the PNW. The NE trough looks seasonal to me. These trends continue to reflect thoughts I have advertised all week long, so there is no real change from previous forecasts.  Day 6: Summary Forecast for Tue, Jun 12, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  83  +1  ERCOT(SP)  91  -2  FRCC(SE)  90  +1  MAAC(NE)  82  NC  MAIN(CTR)  79  -2  MAPP(HP)  72  -1  NPCC(NE)  78  +1  SERC(SE)  88  NC  SPP(SP)  84  -3  WSCC(NW)  71  +2  WSCC(RK)  73  +1  WSCC(SW)  82  NC      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   74 69 68 65 70 81 87 82  Max    78 77 80 71 75 88 90 83  Min     70 62 63 59 66 79 85 80  Range  8 15 17 12 9 9 5 4  StD-P  3.0 5.8 4.9 3.6 2.8 2.8 1.4 1.5  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 7: Summary Forecast for Wed, Jun 13, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  79  -1  ERCOT(SP)  89  -3  FRCC(SE)  89  NC  MAAC(NE)  80  -2  MAIN(CTR)  75  -1  MAPP(HP)  72  +2  NPCC(NE)  76  -2  SERC(SE)  87  -1  SPP(SP)  80  -2  WSCC(NW)  74  +2  WSCC(RK)  74  +2  WSCC(SW)  83  +1      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   69 68 66 69 73 81 84 84  Max    75 73 77 74 76 87 87 88  Min     66 64 60 67 70 79 79 82  Range  9 9 17 6 6 8 8 6  StD-P  2.7 3.6 4.7 1.8 1.9 2.2 3.7 2.6  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 8: Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun 14, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  79  +10  ERCOT(SP)  89  +4  FRCC(SE)  89  +11  MAAC(NE)  80  +6  MAIN(CTR)  77  +13  MAPP(HP)  75  +12  NPCC(NE)  76  +9  SERC(SE)  86  +7  SPP(SP)  85  +11  WSCC(NW)  75  +1  WSCC(RK)  78  +3  WSCC(SW)  84  +4      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   71 77 67 70 80 81 84 86  Max    76 79 77 75 80 87 89 89  Min     68 75 62 67 79 79 81 84  Range  9 4 15 8 1 8 8 5  StD-P  2.1 1.8 4.5 2.5 0.4 2.4 2.6 2.1  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 9: Summary Forecast for Fri, Jun 15, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  74  +13  ERCOT(SP)  83  -1  FRCC(SE)  80  +1  MAAC(NE)  73  +3  MAIN(CTR)  75  +14  MAPP(HP)  75  +14  NPCC(NE)  66  +1  SERC(SE)  78  +1  SPP(SP)  85  +8  WSCC(NW)  67  -13  WSCC(RK)  77  -1  WSCC(SW)  84  +4      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   73 80 64 70 84 78 83 85  Max    75 85 68 78 85 79 84 87  Min     70 76 59 67 83 77 83 84  Range  5 10 10 11 3 2 1 3  StD-P  2.1 4.6 4.4 3.8 1.3 0.7 0.4 1.6  Count  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4   Day 10: Summary Forecast for Sat, Jun 16, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix          (Click on image to enlarge)     ECAR(CTR)  75  +16  ERCOT(SP)  85  +2  FRCC(SE)  80  +1  MAAC(NE)  74  +10  MAIN(CTR)  75  +16  MAPP(HP)  69  +10  NPCC(NE)  68  +8  SERC(SE)  78  +1  SPP(SP)  86  +11  WSCC(NW)  69  -9  WSCC(RK)  73  -3  WSCC(SW)  81  +2      Range Standard Deviation     Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   65 65 64 61 69 74 78 72  Max    73 70 70 69 78 78 86 81  Min     56 60 57 49 59 69 70 64  Range  18 10 14 20 19 9 16 17  StD-P  8.4 4.1 6.6 8.3 8.9 4.5 7.9 8.5  Count  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     	
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