Weather Headlines
Friday January 25, 2002
No changes to my earlier thinking. Near record warmth in the short term to
replaced by sharply colder weather in the 6-10 day period.
The short term outlook is pretty simple, not to mention quiet. Any action
to speak of is confined to the extreme Western U.S. To be sure, a healthy
storm comes in off the Pacific spreading moisture all the way down the
coast. The higher elevation should see some significant snows. With the
deepening trough in the area, we can expect the cool bias of recent weeks
to continue. It has also become apparent that the Pre-Christmas ridge has
reappeared in the Eastern U.S. Well above normal temperatures through the
weekend are expected nearly everywhere to the right of the Rockies. Most of
this occurs with little or no precipitation. Early next week the Western
U.S. storm starts to emerge in the High Plains. The Gulf of Mexico starts
to open up and a moderate intensity Canadian High pushes into the Northern
Plains. This initiates a turn to colder air that lasts into the medium
range.
There are so many weather models to choose from these days that picking one
to be right is very difficult. I'll look at trends and opportunities for
consensus, but more and more the forecaster who hits has to look at the big
picture rather than an individual model solution. So it goes with the 6-10
day period. I am confident of a colder turn in the East during the period
with some cooling well South into Florida. I remain comfortable with going
below normal for most of the country and double digit below remains a
possibility, especially in the Plains which would make this overall colder
than late December. The Gulf Coast and SE may still see 5 day numbers
average above normal as the cooling really won't take hold until late. But,
I dont expect one big Canadian high to plunge South. It will likely only go
as far South as the Great Lakes. The Southern stream may also get more
active this period dumping some snows in the Midwest that really haven't
seen it this winter. As mentioned yesterday, I still expect this to be a
transitory cold, but the warm up after Day 10 may not be as pronounced as
recent warm ups, at least not right away.
For the period Friday January 25 through Tuesday January 29, expect the
following temperature trends:
Average 4 to 6-degrees below normal: Intermountain West, Desert SW,
California...
Average 1 to 3- degrees below normal: Pacific NW...
Average 1 to 3-degrees above normal: Southern Plains and Rockies...
Average 4 to 9-degrees above normal: Northern and Central Plains,
Mississippi Valley, Northern and Central Rockies...
Average 10 to 15-degrees above normal: Great Lakes, Ohio Valley,
Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, Gulf Coast, Southeast...
Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist APB Energy / True Quote