Our marks are fine (at least through 04 where we occasionally see #'s).   I don't think it's appropriate to shut down anything.  We need to price the product properly and off-peak needs just as much margin as on-peak given the increase in coal prices and the effects of load growth.

Rather than shut down products, increase the price to reflect the current risk in the market.   We are chipping away at our off-peak position day by day and we have bought some NYMEX coal.

Am I making sense?   In addition, I am working with Doug to buy 7x24 from FPL in North Texas (for both desks).   We will probably have to pay $3.50-4.00 spread to get 3-5 year 7x24 deal done.

With respect to NE, the outright prices are much higher and resid is the marginal unit for off-peak, therefore, in some ways the risk is easier to manage.

 -----Original Message-----
From: 	Herndon, Rogers  
Sent:	Wednesday, August 22, 2001 10:12 AM
To:	Presto, Kevin M.
Subject:	RE: Request for Information/Status Report

so, should I shut down our retail offerings in those regions.  otherwise, i am compounding the problem as ees is selling off of the marks?

RH

 -----Original Message-----
From: 	Presto, Kevin M.  
Sent:	Wednesday, August 22, 2001 10:08 AM
To:	Herndon, Rogers
Subject:	RE: Request for Information/Status Report

We are in jail in off-peak as well and are trying to buy.   Most regions have markets on-line through 2003 (TVA, Ent, Cinergy, Com-ed).   In NY, there is zero liqidity for off-peak.   PJM West has pretty decent liquidity through 03.

I hope this helps.

 -----Original Message-----
From: 	Herndon, Rogers  
Sent:	Wednesday, August 22, 2001 8:39 AM
To:	Presto, Kevin M.
Subject:	FW: Request for Information/Status Report

Kevin -

If I could see some off-peak markets I would be buying.  Unfortunately, I know info like this will just be used against me and the positions I am fighting.  Looks like we should be on the bid for some of these coal terminals from the producers.

RH

 -----Original Message-----
From: 	"Allan Stewart" <astewart@pira.com>@ENRON [mailto:IMCEANOTES-+22Allan+20Stewart+22+20+3Castewart+40pira+2Ecom+3E+40ENRON@ENRON.com] 
Sent:	Wednesday, August 22, 2001 6:09 AM
To:	Pradhan, Salil
Cc:	Herndon, Rogers
Subject:	RE: Request for Information/Status Report

I have spent more time down that black hole called coal and have gotten even
more bullish than I was when we spoke last. I wanted to give you some
initial reactions, and hope that you will call to discuss your reaactions to
my reactions (if that make sense to you).

In looking at the MSHA data under a finer and finer slice, I was somewhat
surprised to see the purging of employees in NAPP and CAPP. I have also been
making the rounds in the major NAPP and CAPP basins to gauge the level of
new activity, but it is surprising how sluggish the rebound is and will be.
One could write that off to new problems with permitting (intermittent
streams has become a real problem I am told) and/or to hiring problems while
fighting off the coal unions some more. The other theory is that this
oligopology that has gotten its sea legs! I am leaning towards a theory that
the latter will use the former for cover. Given how bad EIA is, that cover
could last a while. This market is ripe for a squeezing IF gas tightens a
bit and net exports is somewhat inelastic at these levels!

Further, it appears clear that aside from being horrible at managing data
and the needs of the public, EIA is incompetent at analysis. I do not think
we built inventory during 1Q01; it was mostly stocks (producer/distributor)
moving to market. I now understand why you were focusing upon my gas
substitution comments. The other area of opportunity is EXIM. No doubt you
have continued to see the drift in international freight and coal prices.
How low can it go (EXIM) - we are in unchartered territory! I know Hill &
Associates think that the US can become an importer over the longer pull.
The problem is the offloading at terminals (what you load, you can't
necessarily offload) and whose terminals they are. Look at the ownership of
the major terminals and you find coal producers.

I have told our gas guys that I am growing more confident that gas will gain
ground from coal this time around for the structural reaons I gave you plus
the fundamental reasons as well. If today's AGA is bullish again, this could
be the makings of an interesting market op.

Regards,
Allan Stewart
astewart@pira.com
212-686-6808

-----Original Message-----
From: Pradhan, Salil [mailto:salil.pradhan@ENRON.com]
Sent: Tuesday, August 14, 2001 11:01 AM
To: astewart@pira.com
Subject: FW: Request for Information



Hello Allan:

Thanks for the conversation yesterday.  I look forward to hearing from
you, and the information you mentioned you will send my way.  Thanks a
lot.

Cheers,

Salil.

>  -----Original Message-----
> From: 	Pradhan, Salil
> Sent:	Wednesday, August 08, 2001 1:49 PM
> To:	'astewart@pira.com'
> Cc:	'jsteele@pira.com'; Fraser, Jennifer
> Subject:	Request for Information
>
> Hello Allan:
>
> I am Salil Pradhan and am with Enron's Coal and Emissions Trading
> Group.  Jen Fraser suggested I get in touch with you.  She mentioned
> that you made a presentation at Enron on Coal in the month of May and
> wanted to get information on the correlation of natural gas prices
> with coal.
>
> You had mentioned that in the northeast, natural gas could replace 5%
> of the base load from coal once coal prices had catch up with gas
> prices.  Can you please send me any supporting analysis and
> information.  Also, please let me know if you need more clarification
> or have any other questions.
>
> Best Regards,
>
> Salil Pradhan.
> 713-870-8217.
>
>


**********************************************************************
This e-mail is the property of Enron Corp. and/or its relevant affiliate and
may contain confidential and privileged material for the sole use of the
intended recipient (s). Any review, use, distribution or disclosure by
others is strictly prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient (or
authorized to receive for the recipient), please contact the sender or reply
to Enron Corp. at enron.messaging.administration@enron.com and delete all
copies of the message. This e-mail (and any attachments hereto) are not
intended to be an offer (or an acceptance) and do not create or evidence a
binding and enforceable contract between Enron Corp. (or any of its
affiliates) and the intended recipient or any other party, and may not be
relied on by anyone as the basis of a contract by estoppel or otherwise.
Thank you.
**********************************************************************