Weather Headlines
Tuesday January 8, 2002
Thaw underway for the short term. Longer range models continue to insist
(as I continue to resist) that real arctic air arrives later in the month.
There is some potential for yet another winter storm in the East late in
the five day period. The point in question is how much cold air is
available or is it just another cold rain for many folks. That will be
answered later in the week. The overall pattern definitely looks warmer for
now though some of this energy goes into melting snow cover rather than
warming the air. The absence of snow in the Plains is one reason why they
are so much warmer relative to normal than areas farther East. But, most of
the country goes warmer than normal before the end of the week. The last to
catch on to this trend is the Southeast.
I am not as bullish as the charts (and some forecasters) in regards to cold
air developing in the medium range period and beyond. I am not saying next
week and the week after will not be colder than this week, they likely will
be. But, I continue to have questions as to intensity and Southern extent
of whatever develops. First, we have yet to see any real polar flow so far
this winter. Second, lack of deep snow cover in the Northern U.S. tends to
inhibit bitter cold. Third, and perhaps most important to me is the lack of
high surface pressures developing over Canada. Now, they may develop
eventually, but I want to see it first. Finally, most models have more of a
West to East configuration at the jet stream level rather than a NW to SE
orientation straight out of the arctic. Given these conditions and recent
history I am just not ready yet to pronounce any major cold developing. In
fact, I would expect the Gulf Coast and SE to actually run warmer than
normal through the 20'th of the month. The Plains, Lakes and NE probably go
back to below normal levels, but not excessively so. It looks comparable to
the past couple of weeks. The West is expected to take on a temperature
profile that closely resembles normal Mid-January levels.
For the period Tuesday January 8 through Saturday January 12, expect the
following temperature trends:
Average 1 to 3-degrees below normal: Southeast?
Average 1 to 3-above normal: Gulf Coast, Mid-Atlantic...
Average 1 to 3-degrees above normal: Northeast, Ohio Valley...
Average 4 to 9-degrees above normal: Northeast, Great Lakes, Ohio and
Mississippi Valleys, Southern Plains and Rockies, California, Intermountain
West, Desert SW, Pacific NW?
Average 10 to locally 20-degrees above normal: Central and Northern
Rockies, Central and Northern Plains...
Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist APB Energy / True Quote