Is this why BP thought to squeeze the market?

Jeff




Patrick Danaher@ENRON
10/23/2000 05:17 PM
To: Alex Mcleish/EU/Enron@Enron
cc: Chris Mahoney/LON/ECT@ECT, Ted Robinson/HOU/ECT@ECT, Andrea 
Hauser/NA/Enron@Enron, Luis Mena/NA/Enron@Enron, Larry 
Gagliardi/Corp/Enron@Enron, Mario de la Ossa/NA/Enron@ENRON, Jim 
Goughary/HOU/ECT@ECT, David J Botchlett/HOU/ECT@ECT, Bill F 
Briggs/HOU/ECT@ECT, Don Schroeder/HOU/ECT@ECT, Phil Clifford/HOU/ECT@ECT, 
John Wilson/NA/Enron@ENRON, Pavel Zadorozhny/HOU/ECT@ECT, Richard 
Yeboah/NA/Enron@Enron, Robert Fuller/HOU/ECT@ECT, Spencer Vosko/HOU/ECT@ECT, 
John L Nowlan/HOU/ECT@ECT, Alberto Valcarcel/HOU/ECT@ECT, Suzanne B 
Clapp/HOU/ECT@ECT, Clayton Seigle/HOU/ECT@ECT, Niamh Clarke/LON/ECT@ECT, Ross 
Koller/LON/ECT@ECT, John Buckner Thomas/LON/ECT@ECT, Chris Glaas/LON/ECT@ECT, 
Anastasia Karabatsos/LON/ECT@ECT, Tracy Wallace/LON/ECT@ECT, Richard 
Slovenski/SIN/ECT@ECT, Patrick Markey/HOU/ECT@ECT, John Chismar/SIN/ECT@ECT, 
Hans Wong/SIN/ECT@ECT, Wang Moi Eng/SIN/ECT@ECT, Caroline 
Abramo/Corp/Enron@Enron, Mark Jones/LON/ECT@ECT, Tony O'Brien/LON/ECT@ECT, 
Henkka Talvitie/LON/ECT@ECT, Jeffrey A Shankman/HOU/ECT@ECT 
Subject: Re: mkt thoughs  

The most significant aspect of the syncrude production problem is the unique 
blending qualities of the sweet crude produced by the plant. The synthetic 
crude produced by this plant has no bottoms. All other crude oils have at 
least some bottoms, therefore the demand on the replacement blending barrel 
will be higher than the volume of barrels lost. With the plant production 
down approximately 3.5 to 4.0 millions barrels, the impact ultimately will be 
an increase of wti demand during the Oct. 15-nov 15  approaching 130,000 b/d. 
Given the tightness of light sweet crude oil in padd 2, I believe this is 
significant. I think it was the main reason for x/z strengthening and the 
recent strength in z/f may also be attributed to this recent supply 
disruption. Until there are additional sweet barrels arbed into padd 2 from 
padd 3, I think we will see strength in the prompt spreads.