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Tonights Update is brought to you by the World Championship of Fantasy
Football   http://www.wcoff.com

Here's the scoop:

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Hopefully, I'll see you in Las Vegas.
Joe

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Hi Folks,

Doing our best to get these to you early in the week as you juggle your
lineups for the stretch run.   Here's how I see the Rushing Game Matchups
this week.

PLEASE NOTE:   See the cheatsheet online www.footballguys.com for exactly
where I rank players and to determine who to start.   I always receive
emails asking me how I can have a guy ranked highly on the cheatsheet but
listed under a matchup that favors the Defense.   Just because one matchup
may be more favorable than another, that doesn't necessarily mean I'd start
the player with the best matchup.   Ahman Green may have a horrible matchup
one week but unless you're sitting on Ricky Williams or Marshall Faulk,
Green's your guy no matter who he's lining up against.  (Yes, even after
last week's performance)  The matchup info is meant to be just one more tool
in your box when it comes to deciding between players.

Stats are provided by Mike Hall's excellent FLM League Management Software.
http://www.fflm.com/ for more info.   Fantasy Points Allowed by position
numbers are from ESPN.com.   Target numbers are from our Footballguy Andy
Hicks.
Let's get to it.

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Locks:  These games feature Defenses that should be overmatched against the
Offense.


Jacksonville's Stacey Mack vs Minnesota Defense

Stacey Mack played well last week rushing for 115 yards on 28 carries (4.1
ypc).   He's settling into the starting RB role pretty well.   Still very
quiet on the Fred Taylor front so you have to assume Mack's going to keep
his job.   With no playoff hopes, it probably makes sense not to rush Taylor
back.   Mack will face an ultra soft Viking defense this week ranked # 31 in
Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   For the year,
they rank # 30 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.


New York Jet's Curtis Martin vs Indianapolis Defense

Curtis Martin ran hard last week.   He had 78 yards on 24 carries (3.2 ypc)
plus he caught a couple of passes.   This might be his week though as the
Colts are weak on defense ranking # 28 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game
over the last four weeks.   For the year, they rank # 31 in Fantasy Points
Allowed to RBs.   If he's going to explode, this is the week.


St. Louis' Marshall Faulk vs Carolina Defense

Start Faulk.   End of story.   He's the best player in Fantasy Football.
If it matters (and it doesn't) the Panthers rank # 24 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and # 29 in Fantasy Points Allowed to
RBs.   Faulk's knee was described as "puffy" after the game but he insists
he'll be fine and play.   Although some are saying Trung Canidate will see
increased time.   He's still a must start in my opinion though.


Tennessee's Eddie George / Skip Hicks vs Oakland Defense

This one hurts.   Eddie George owners have been circling on their calendars
the Oakland game with their porous rush defense.   And then Skip Hicks comes
in last week and looks like Earl Campbell rushing for 142 yards on 17
carries (8.4 ypc) and a score   (Granted, those numbers are padded with a 51
yard rush)   George is such a team player that he reportedly didn't mind
Hicks staying in the game as he had the hot hand.   I think you'll see
George back this week in his regular role but Hicks could get the call at
any time.   The Raiders have improved on defense.   Now they just rank # 30
in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   For the year,
they rank # 24 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.


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Prime Matchups:  These games feature Defenses that should have trouble
stopping the Offense.


Atlanta's Maurice Smith / Bob Christian vs Buffalo Defense

Maurice looked a little better (or healthier) this week but he's still
underperforming.   He rushed 11 times for 49 yards (4.5 ypc) Sunday.   Bob
Christian is clearly going to be more involved at RB.   He had 7 rushes for
17 yards (2.4 ypc) and a score.   Christian also tacked on 66 yards
receiving.   At this point, I'd say Christian deserves a look in larger
leagues.   The Bill Defense is pretty weak ranking # 27 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.   For the year, they rank # 28 in
Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.


Chicago's Anthony Thomas vs Washington Defense

With 31 carries last week for 173 yards (5.6 ypc), I think it's safe to say
Thomas is back.   He's a perfect fit for this conservative offense.   Plus
the Bear's defense looks like it'll keep them in most games which keeps
Thomas involved.   He'll face a Redskin defense that ranks # 19 in Rushing
Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and # 26 in Fantasy Points
Allowed to RBs.


Green Bay's Ahman Green vs Cleveland Defense

It's my opinion that Ahman Green owners should just forget about last week.
Green was held to just 9 yards on 9 carries by a surging Tennessee defense.
I see very little to make me think this wasn't an aberration.   This week,
he'll face a softer Brown defense that's ranked # 14 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   For the year, Cleveland is
ranked # 20 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   Fantasy Football owners
traditionally have memories that last about 7 days.   I personally am not
letting last weeks performance wipe out what has been a great year.


Indianapolis' Dominic Rhodes vs New York Jets Defense

It's too early to be talking about Edgerrin James being a product of the
"system" but the truth of the matter is that no name Dominic Rhodes is
tearing it up lately.   He's had 298 rushing yards over the last 3 games.
Sunday, he rolled for 177 of them on 29 carries (6.1 ypc)   (and his longest
run was 35 yards so it's not like he padded the stats with a 80 yarder)   He
caught 3 passes to boot.   Clearly, he's playing at a high level right now
and is a must start in most leagues.   The Jets were horrible early on
against the run but have now improved to average ranking # 17 in Rushing
Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.   For the year, they rank # 25
in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.


New England's Antowain Smith vs Miami Defense

You know Antowain Smith had fun against his old team Sunday when he rolled
up 95 yards on 20 carries (4.8 ypc)   He continues to be one of the better
stories of 2001.   Over the last 3 weeks, he ranks as the # 8 RB in Fantasy
points per game.   Smith should have had a TD but went down at the 2.   This
week, he'll face a Dolphin Defense that's been soft lately.   They rank # 26
in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.   For the year,
they rank # 11 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.


New Orleans' Ricky Williams / Deuce McAllister vs Tampa Bay Defense

Williams had a sub par game Monday night and it does seem like Coach Jim
Haslett has been looking the other way the last few games.   He only had 14
carries Monday.   He did gain 57 yards (4.1 ypc) so he did well when he was
in there.   Some of that can be attributed to the Rams and their offense
taking Williams out.   Although you can't ignore Deuce McAllister.
McAllister had 5 catches for 44 yards (but just one carry)   The Bucs are
nothing special lately ranking # 21 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over
the last 4 weeks.   For the year, they rank # 15 in Fantasy Points Allowed
to RBs.   Keep an eye on Tampa's Warren Sapp who missed a good bit of time
last week with a shoulder injury.   It'd be a nice boost if he's less than
100%.


New York Giants' Tiki Barber / Ron Dayne vs Seattle Defense

Barber continues to steal the show from Ron Dayne.   Barber rushed 16 times
for 85 yards (5.3 ypc)   Dayne only had 4 carries for 9 yards.   Barber was
also the Giant's leading receiver with 5 receptions.   I don't see that
changing a lot.   Seattle is ranked # 29 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game
over the last four weeks.   For the year, they rank # 13 in Fantasy Points
Allowed to RBs.


San Francisco's Garrison Hearst vs Philadelphia Defense

Garrison Hearst continues to be one of the best stories in the league.   He
ran for 103 yards on 26 carries Sunday (4.0 ypc)   You have to be a little
worried about him though as Kevan Barlow got both rushing TDs.   And both
Terry Jackson and Fred Beasley saw red zone carries.   Hearst will be a guy
who runs up and down the field but it looks like coach Steve Mariucci has
more faith in the other guys for the goalline.   The Eagles rank # 23 in
Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   For the year,
they rank # 10 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.


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Even Matchups:  These games feature no real advantage either way


Arizona's Michael Pittman / Thomas Jones vs Dallas Defense

Things are looking pretty bad for Michael Pittman owners.   As we commented
earlier, the carries allotted to Jones have been creeping up.   Last week,
it looked more like a full blown time share with Pittman running 14 times
for 37 yards (2.6 ypc) and Jones totaling 24 yards on 12 carries (2.0 ypc)
Clearly, neither are any good but that's bad news for Pittman owners.   Of
even more concern is the fact that Jones is looking like the short yardage /
red zone guy.   The Cowboys rank # 25 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over
the last 4 weeks.   For the year, they rank # 14 in Fantasy Points Allowed
to RBs.   It's tough right now to put much faith in either guy though, even
with the favorable matchup.


Buffalo's Shawn Bryson vs Atlanta Defense

Travis Henry's tough rookie year continued Sunday as he injured his knee.
Shawn Bryson will likely get the bulk of the work this week.   Bryson didn't
do much Sunday running 14 times for 38 yards (2.7 ypc)   He did catch 3
passes.   He'll likely be better with a week of practice with the first
unit.   The Falcons haven't been anything special against the run lately
ranking # 22 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks and #
21 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs for the year.


Dallas' Emmitt Smith vs Arizona Defense

Emmitt Smith looked like the "old" Emmitt Smith.  "Old" as in 2001 version
which means not very good.   He struggled to get 39 yards on 12 carries (3.2
ypc) and generally wasn't a factor.   He's an up and down player so realize
your taking a chance with him.   The Cardinals aren't much on defense
ranking # 20 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.
For the year, they rank # 23 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.


Miami's Lamar Smith vs New England Defense

Lamar Smith is a grinder type back that needs lots of carries to be
effective.   He only rushed 9 times Sunday for 22 yards (2.4 ypc)   That
won't get it done.   Travis Minor is a threat but it looks to me like the
Dolphins will stay with Smith for now.   New England ranks # 13 in Rushing
Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   For the year, they rank #
16 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.


Pittsburgh's Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala / Jerome Bettis / Amos Zereoue vs
Detroit Defense

Amos Zereoue had a pretty good game against Baltimore with 73 yards on 16
carries (4.6 ypc)   But he hurt his shoulder and is now questionable for
this week's game.   Fuamatu-Ma'afala ran hard but had little room to move
gaining 15 yards on 9 carries (1.7 ypc)   And finally, Jerome Bettis is in
the mix although the early word has him as doubtful again for this week's
game.   Obviously, they're being very careful to preserve him for the
playoffs.   We'll try to stay on this story this week for you.   The Lions
are surprisingly tough against the run lately ranking # 11 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.   For the year, they rank # 22 in
Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.


San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson vs Kansas City Defense

Tomlinson struggled a bit last week with just 46 yards on 17 carries (2.7
ypc)   He did add 23 yards on 6 catches.   He'll face an improved KC defense
this week ranked # 8 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four
weeks.   For the year, they rank # 27 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.


Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs New York Giants Defense

It's been an up and down last couple of weeks for Alexander owners but with
Ricky Watters broken ankle, Alexander is back in the saddle as the # 1 Guy.
Look for him to pick up where he left off.   Last week, he rushed for 27
yards on 7 carries (3.9 ypc) plus a TD.   The Giants have been pretty
average lately in stopping the run ranking # 15 in Rushing Yards Allowed per
Game over the last four weeks.   For the year, they rank # 2 in Fantasy
Points Allowed to RBs.


Washington's Stephen Davis vs Chicago Defense

Stephen Davis played well last week with 111 yards on 24 carries (4.6 ypc)
He was one of the few bright spots for Washington.   This week, he faces a
tough but beatable Bear defense that ranks # 16 in Rushing Yards Allowed per
Game over the last four weeks.   For the year, they rank # 9 in Fantasy
Points Allowed to RBs.


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Downside Matchups:  These games feature a Defense that could pose trouble
for the Offense.


Baltimore's Moe Williams / Terry Allen vs Cincinnati Defense

You know it's not good when Obafemi Ayanbadejo leads the team in rushing
yards and Elvis Grbac leads the team in rushing TDs.   But that's what
happened Sunday against the Steelers.  ( I wonder if Ray Lewis thinks the
Steelers have a "real defense" yet?)   Moe Williams logged 15 yards on 4
carries (3.8 ypc) and Terry Allen made a less than smashing debut with 3
yards on 3 carries (you do the math)   Tough to say how it'll be split this
week but you'd have to think Allen will see more time.   The Bengals aren't
as good as Pittsburgh, but they're very good ranking # 4 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.   For the year, they rank # 4 in
Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   Tough matchup especially since it's not yet
clear how the carries will be split.

Cleveland's James Jackson / Jamel White vs Green Bay Defense

Watch this one closely this week as Jackson tweaked his troublesome ankle
again.   He could be ok, but it's not clear early this week.   If he can't
go, I'd expect you'll see Jamel White over Ben Gay as Gay has made more than
his share of mistakes.   Whoever runs will be facing the suddenly vulnerable
Packers who rank # 18 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4
weeks.   For the year, they rank # 8 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.


Kansas City's Priest Holmes / Tony Richardson vs San Diego Defense

We had Holmes ranked # 5 last week.  I'm guessing you'll see more sites
follow our lead and raise him up the charts as well.   He had a monster game
(again) with 121 yards on 29 carries (4.2 ypc) plus the score.   He's a must
start against pretty much any defense.   This week, he'll face a San Diego
team ranked # 6 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.
For the year, they rank # 7 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   Still
though, I wouldn't let that stop me.   Do keep an eye on his health this
week as he's nursing a sore groin that might limit him.


Minnesota's Michael Bennett vs Jacksonville Defense

Outside of Indianapolis, I don't know that there's been a more disappointing
than Minnesota.   Or one tougher to predict each week.   You get fired up on
Michael Bennett and then he cools off.   Last week, he was back to his early
season workload with only 10 carries.   He did gain 40 yards (4.0 ypc) so
when he ran, he did fine.   With him, it's a numbers game.   Give him enough
carries and eventually he'll break one.   But 10 opportunities won't do it.
And he'll face a very tough Jacksonville defense that's been hot lately.
They rank # 2 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.
For the year, they rank # 12 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.


Oakland's Charlie Garner vs Tennessee Defense

Charlie Garner had his usual productive day with 68 yards rushing on 19
carries (3.6 ypc) plus another 45 yards receiving.   The big news was Tyrone
Wheatley not getting a carry.   Looks like Zack Crockett is back in at the
goalline.   Although that can change at any moment.   The Titans shut down
Ahman Green last week so that's a worry.   They rank # 9 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   For the year, they rank # 17 in
Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.


Philadelphia's Duce Staley vs San Francisco Defense

Staley continues to salvage his rushing numbers with his contributions in
the passing game.   He rushed 15 times for 36 yards Sunday (2.4 ypc)   He
also had 2 fumbles.   But on the bright side, he caught 8 passes for 73
yards.   They'll find the going a little tougher this week against San
Francisco ranked # 5 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four
weeks.   For the year, they rank # 19 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.


Tampa Bay's Warrick Dunn / Mike Alstott vs New Orleans Defense

You'll go crazy trying to figure out which one of these guys will do
anything week to week.   Dunn only had 10 carries for 27 yards (2.7 ypc) and
Alstott only managed 7 rushes for 23 yards (3.3 ypc)   Dunn was heavily
involved in the Tampa Dink and Dunk passing game but that's tough to count
on.   They'll face a New Orleans defense that's likely smarting from the
Rams defeat.   They rank # 7 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last
4 weeks.   For the year, they rank # 18 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.




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Defensive Slam Dunks:  These games feature a very tough Defense posing major
problems for the Offense.


Carolina's Richard Huntley vs St. Louis Defense

Huntley should be rested after the bye week.   Unfortunately, rest won't
make him any more talented.   The Rams rank # 10 in Rushing Yards Allowed
per Game over the last 4 weeks and # 5 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs so
this isn't looking good.


Cincinnati's Corey Dillon vs Baltimore Defense

It's strength against strength this week with Dillon facing the Ravens.   If
you can imagine it, the Bengals will be hurting without Akili Smith at QB...
That means Dillon is the whole offense and you can bet the Ravens will be
geared up for it.   On a forward looking note, it doesn't get any easier for
Dillon as he has Tennessee and Pittsburgh on the horizon.   If your trade
deadline hasn't passed, I'd consider dealing him.   The Ravens rank # 12 in
Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks but I think they're
better than that.   They rank # 3 for the year in Fantasy Points Allowed to
RBs.


Detroit's James Stewart vs Pittsburgh Defense

James Stewart's hip injury may not be as bad as feared.   He had a solid
game in their first victory last week rushing for 91 yards on 20 carries
(4.6 ypc)   The awful news this week is that he's playing Pittsburgh.   The
Steelers are dominating offenses right now ranking # 1 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   For the year, they rank # 1 in
Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.



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That'll do it for the Rushing Matchups.   Passing Matchups to follow.

Joe

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