Weather Headlines
Tuesday November 13, 2001

*** Current pattern should hold through the five day period. I will now buy
a significant pattern change in the 6-10 day period with near unanimous
model support.***

     Most of the country remains very quiet (and very mild) in terms of
sensible weather. There are a few areas of highlight however. The system
that brought rain to California yesterday is weaker today and will break up
somewhat is it goes through the Southern Rockies. It may still emerge as a
moisture producer for West Texas. The last of the chill will be exiting the
Northeast today as winds turn more towards the SW bringing the center of
the nation warmth in. Five day temperatures will still have to be
considered as above average for most of the country.

 After more than a week of delays, it looks like we can finally hone in
with some detail to the change in the weather pattern. I still have some
question as to the degree of arctic air involved and how far South it can
go. Where I am very confident though is we will sweep away the widespread
60 and 70 degree temperatures Thanksgiving week. Changes in the Pacific
should show up in North America in about a week. The current zonal flow in
the jet will amplify allowing a full latitude ridge to build up and into
the Canadian Rockies. Downstream then, the jet comes in from the NW carving
out a trough. The most severe case comes from the Canadian models which
spin up quite the storm for Thanksgiving. It has some support from its
ensembles. The others are less aggressive, but certainly sharply colder.
Going from double digit above to double digit below normal will be a
dramatic change for sure. The continental divide will likely be the cutoff
for how West this air goes. As for timing, I would look for the Plains on
Tuesday of Thanksgiving week getting to the East Coast on Friday.

For the period Tuesday November 13 through Saturday November 17, expect the
following temperature trends:

Average 1 to 3-degrees below normal: Southeast, Mid-Atlantic ?

Average 1 to 3-degrees above normal: Northeast, Gulf Coast, California,
Pacific NW?

Average 4 to 6-degrees above normal: Great Lakes, Ohio and Mississippi
Valleys, Southern Rockies and Plains, Intermountain West?

Average 7 to 12-degrees above normal: Northern and Central Rockies and
Plains?

Andy Weingarten... Meteorologist  APB Energy / True Quote