fyi...on the SL front.
 -----Original Message-----
From: 	Huson, Margaret  
Sent:	Wednesday, August 22, 2001 10:24 AM
To:	Allan, David; Collins Jr., Harry M.; Cordesman, Kevin; Crane, Bob; Del vecchio, Peter; Helfrich, Christopher A.; Holzer, Eric; Hutchinson, Elizabeth; Johnson, Jay; Johnston, Robert; Korkmas, Deb; Landry, Kimberly; Lindeman, Cheryl; Lyons, Dan; Malcolm, Rodney; Mccrory, Ian; Murray, Julia; Neale, Nelson; Reed, Andrea V.; Ruder, Romney; Saltiel, Robert; Sayre, Frank; Scheuer, Robert; Stapley, Cecil; Stoler, Lou; Tamm, Mike; Van Hooser, Steve
Cc:	Arefieva, Maria; Decker, Larry; Keeler, Jeff; Long, Chris; Yoho, Lisa
Subject:	More notes on Canadian lumber

Canadian Softwood Lumber - Canada's Response, so far

?	On Monday, Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretian raised the Canadian softwood lumber issue with President Bush in the form of a veiled threat to withhold gas and oil (or perhaps pipeline projects) in response to the US measures against Canadian lumber.  While keeping trade open between the US and Canada is clearly in the best economic interests of both countries, this illustrates the threat that retaliation holds and the political nature of these decisions.

?	Previously the lack of Canada's political momentum was blamed on the lack of domestic pressure.  Since the scenario has changed with a 19.31% countervailing duty (CVD) imposed the volume appears to be increasing.

?	Canada's first response to the CVD determination was to announce that it would bring the dispute over the CVD on softwood lumber to the World Trade Organization (WTO).  No doubt that this will proceed; however, the WTO process takes years to reach final resolution and the duties remain in effect while the case runs its course.

?	On the US front, the Department of Commerce (DOC) agreed to align the decision deadlines of the final determinations - CVD and anti-dumping (AD) - meaning that the CVD final decision is delayed to match the AD final decision.  With all the extensions that are allowed - and that are expected in order to review the volumes of casework - the final decisions may not be released until sometime in February 2002. (FYI - the AD preliminary deadline in Sept. 24, but may be delayed)

?	Thus, any changes to come in the near term depend on political will. 


Please contact me with any questions or comments - x5-2431 or margaret.huson@enron.com
 
Maggy Huson
Government Affairs