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Today's Update is brought to you by the guys at www.FFChamps.com

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Hi Folks,

Here's how I see the Rushing Game Matchups this week.

PLEASE NOTE:   See the cheatsheet online www.footballguys.com (when it's
posted, Thursday) for exactly where I rank players and to determine who to
start.   I always receive emails asking me how I can have a guy ranked
highly on the cheatsheet but listed under a matchup that favors the Defense.
Just because one matchup may be more favorable than another, that doesn't
necessarily mean I'd start the player with the best matchup.   Ahman Green
may have a horrible matchup one week but unless you're sitting on Edgerrin
James or Marshall Faulk, Green's your guy no matter who he's lining up
against.   The matchup info is meant to be just one more tool in your box
when it comes to deciding between players.

Stats are provided by Mike Hall's excellent FLM League Management Software.
http://www.fflm.com/ for more info.   Fantasy Points Allowed by position
numbers are from ESPN.com.
Let's get to it.

Joe

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Rushing Game Matchups


Locks:  These games feature Defenses that should be overmatched against the
Offense.


Carolina's Richard Huntley / Nick Goings / Fred Hoover vs New York Jets
Defense

Who didn't see an injury coming for Biakabutuka?   Or Terry Glenn?   Or Fred
Taylor?   I know there are lots of arguments out there that the "injury
prone" tag is unjustified for some players but in my opinion, you shouldn't
be surprised to see guys like Biakabutuka go down.   Coach George Seifert
has said he's giving Huntley the "Golden Opportunity" as the starting RB
this week.   Let's see what he can do with it.   Can't think of a better
defense to run on than the pathetic Jets.   New York ranks # 31 in Rushing
Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks giving up a whopping 186
rushing yards a game.   They rank # 30 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.
Don't underestimate the loss of OL Kevin Donnalley though.   He was a
valuable part of the line.   One other semi troubling fact is that Brad
Hoover had 2 Red Zone rushes last week.   Still though, if there was ever a
week to start Huntley, this is it.


Dallas' Emmitt Smith vs Arizona Defense

It's hard to get too excited about Emmitt Smith these days but this is a
good matchup for him.   The Cowboys have had a week off and they'll be
facing the soft Arizona defense ranked # 26 in Rushing Yards Allowed per
Game over the last 4 weeks.   They're # 28 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.
QB Anthony Wright has another week of practice under the belt and should be
able to provide some passing threat to open the running game.   At least
that's the theory.   You've got to pick your spots with Smith and this looks
like a pretty good one if you've been considering playing him.


Indianapolis' Edgerrin James vs Kansas City Defense

Start James.   Yes, he's in a slump ranking just # 12 in Fantasy Points over
the last 3 games but you have to start him.  Especially against the Kansas
City defense that ranks # 29 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last
4 weeks.   If you doubt a guy like James, remember he had 7 Red Zone rushes
last week.   That's more than a lot of backs have for the season.   He's
getting the opportunities.


Kansas City's Priest Holmes / Tony Richardson vs Indianapolis Defense

Priest Holmes had another solid game last week against the soft Arizona
defense rushing for 85 yards on 15 carries (5.7 ypc)   This week, he'll face
an equally bad Colt defense that ranks # 23 in Rushing Yards Allowed per
Game over the last four weeks.   They rank # 29 in Fantasy Points Allowed to
RBs.   DE Chad Bratzke is doubtful and that'll help Holmes.   For now, it
looks like Tony Richardson is being eased back into the mix.   Look to see
what kind of role he'll take on there but for this week, I think it'll be
primarily Holmes again.


New York's Tiki Barber / Ron Dayne vs Washington Defense

The Giants Duo was less than impressive running the ball Monday night
against Philadelphia.  But the Redskins rush defense is a different story.
Washington ranks # 30 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four
weeks.   They rank # 31 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   I'd expect a
similar distribution in carries as we saw Monday night (Barber - 13 ,
Dayne - 16) and I'd expect both of them to have solid games against this
horrible defense.   Dayne is clearly the Red Zone rusher though.   He had 4
attempts Monday vs just 1 Rushing attempt for Barber.  (Barber did have 2
passes thrown to him in the Red Zone)


New York Jet's Curtis Martin vs Carolina Defense

Curtis Martin ran well when he ran last week.   It's just that he didn't get
to run enough.   Martin totaled 63 yards on 14 carries (4.5) but he needs
more than 14 carries.   He'll get them this week against a Carolina defense
that ranks # 22 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.
Carolina was already thin at LB but with Hannibal Navies breaking his arm
last week, it's even worse now.   This could be a big day for Martin.


San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson vs Buffalo Defense

Tomlinson is very good.   The Bills are not.   Buffalo ranks # 27 in Rushing
Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   They rank # 27 in Fantasy
Points Allowed to RBs.   If you can afford to bench Tomlinson, you probably
don't need any more help from here.


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Prime Matchups:  These games feature Defenses that should have trouble
stopping the Offense.


Baltimore's Terry Allen / Jason Brookins vs Jacksonville Defense

Keep an eye on the injury reports here as Terry Allen suffered a sprained
ankle last week and is iffy for Sunday's game.   Jason Brookins filled in
pretty nicely for Allen rushing 13 times for 46 yards (3.5 ypc).   He did
have a fumble though.   Jacksonville's struggling and they're not getting a
lot of help from their defense.   They rank # 20 in Rushing Yards Allowed
per Game over the last 4 weeks.   They're only slightly better in Fantasy
Points Allowed to RBs ranking # 16.   There were lots of rumors floating
around about the Ravens trying to trade for a RB.   They apparently don't
feel Allen / Brookins are enough to get the job done.   Keep an eye on this
through the week to see if Allen can go.   If you have to submit your
lineups by Thursday, I'd be leery of either back though.


Cincinnati's Corey Dillon vs Detroit Defense

The knock on Corey Dillon has always been his inconsistency.   He did little
to quiet the critics Sunday with a 16 carry for 30 yard (1.9 ypc) day
against the Bears.   Although you have to give the Bears defense credit -
they're tough.  This week, he faces a much softer Lions unit that ranks # 16
in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.   They're # 21 in
Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   I'm willing to discount last week's
performance as a testament to the Bears.   Dillon simply didn't matchup well
with the tough inside defenders of Chicago and I expect him to fare much
better here.


Denver's Mike Shanahan vs New England Defense

Take your pick here.  The latest Terrell Davis news from Sports Illustrated
is that he may be injured more than anyone's letting on.   And now ESPN's
John Clayton is reporting that Olandis Gary may get the start over Mike
Anderson in an effort to shake up the offense.   Sheesh.  The Broncos are
struggling offensively to get much going.   They'll face a Patriot team on a
major roll.   Although statistically, they're still giving up a ton of
yards.   The Indy / New England box score from last week was a strange one -
Indy loses 38-17 but has 484 total yards including 179 rushing.   The
Patriots rank # 25 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks
and also rank # 25 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   When Anderson ran
last week, he did pretty well gaining 50 yards on 11 carries (4.5 ypc)
although he did have a fumble.   11 carries won't get it done for you
though.   If I had to turn in a roster Thursday, I'd probably shy away from
the whole situation if I could even though I'd expect the Broncos as a team
to run well on New England.


Detroit's James Stewart / Lamont Warren vs Cincinnati Defense

Keep an eye on this one as James Stewart suffered an ankle injury and his
status is uncertain for this week's game.   Lamont Warren will go if Stewart
can't.   Neither player did a lot against Tennessee last week.   Warren had
18 yards on 6 carries (3.0 ypc)   Stewart had 17 yards on 9 carries (1.9
ypc)   The Bengal defense is enticing though as they rank just # 28 in
Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.   They rank # 22 in
Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   It's likely a decision on who'll play may
not come till later this week so understand this is a risky call here if you
must decide now.


Pittsburgh's Jerome Bettis vs Tennessee Defense

How can you not start Jerome Bettis?   He ranks # 6 over the last 3 weeks in
Fantasy Points among RBs.   The Titans are improving their rush defense and
now rank # 10 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.
For the year though, they rank # 26 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.
Bettis is on a roll and I wouldn't want to be in his way come Monday Night
at their new stadium.


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Even Matchups:  These games feature no real advantage either way


Arizona's Michael Pittman vs Dallas Defense

Michael Pittman continues to run well and that shouldn't change against
Dallas.   Don't forget about his receiving as he's rolled up 311 total yards
over the last 3 weeks.   Dallas is pretty average on defense ranking # 15 in
Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.   They rank # 14 in
Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.  Thomas Jones did get 7 carries (and a TD)
last week but I think it'll be primarily Pittman here.


Minnesota's Doug Chapman vs Tampa Bay Defense

Against a very good Packer Defense last week, Chapman rushed for 90 yards on
22 carries (4.1 ypc).   This week, he faces Tampa Bay which has fallen all
the way to # 21 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.
They're tougher in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs where they rank # 12 for
the year.   Pittsburgh rolled up 220 rushing yards against Tampa Sunday so
they can definitely be run on.   One note of concern is that Jimmy
Kleinsasser had 3 Red Zone rushing attempts last week compared to just 1 for
Chapman.   Chapman showed a great nose for the endzone in college so let's
hope that Red Zone distribution starts to change.   Tampa has the tough
reputation but I wouldn't be afraid of this matchup at all.


New Orleans' Ricky Williams vs St. Louis Defense

Over the last 3 weeks, Ricky Williams is the # 4 RB in Fantasy Points.   He
starts this week for me regardless of the matchup.   St. Louis ranks # 11 in
Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   They rank # 17 in
Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   Certainly, the high powered Ram offense can
take a RB out of the game but the numbers show that teams have had some
success running on them.   I'll take my chances with Ricky.


Oakland's Charlie Garner vs Philadelphia Defense

Tyrone Wheatley could play this week but I'm doubting it.   I think it'll be
Charlie Garner trying to carry the load.   The Eagles have the tough
reputation but they rank just # 19 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over
the last four weeks and # 18 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   Part of
that is due to their very tough pass defense.   Oakland's coming off a bye
week while Philadelphia's coming off a short week following a Monday night
game.   Don't forget the team's ties here.   Jon Gruden and Charlie Garner
are both former Eagles.   Bottom line - I like Gruden's ability to be able
to create some situations for Garner to shine.


Seattle's Shaun Alexander vs Miami Defense

The Miami defense has lost some luster ranking # 14 in Rushing Yards Allowed
per Game over the last four weeks.   They're still tough though and having a
healthy Zach Thomas will be a big plus.   Thomas is mobile and a hard
hitter.   Alexander is the top ranked RB in the league over the last 3 weeks
with 4 TDs in his 2 games.   Not sure he can keep that pace but you almost
have to start him this week.


St. Louis' Trung Canidate / Marshall Faulk vs New Orleans Defense

At this point, it looks like Faulk may sit another week and Canidate gets
the start again.   Coach Mike Martz is claiming he wants Faulk to be "100%"
before returning.   Canidate's stellar play allows him that luxury.
Although Canidate won't be surprising anyone after the huge game last week.
And he doesn't get to play the Swiss Cheese Jets again.   New Orleans is
tough defense ranked # 7 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last
four weeks but I'd still roll the dice on Canidate if you're needing a home
run.   He's got that breakaway potential to score from anywhere.   He also
had 6 Red Zone rushing attempts which should put to rest any talk that he's
not big enough to handle the goalline carries.


Tampa Bay's Warrick Dunn / Mike Alstott vs Minnesota Defense

Warrick Dunn says the injured foot / toe will bother him for a while but now
he's got a hamstring injury to worry about.   He hopes to be able to go this
weekend although he was ineffective last week against Pittsburgh rushing for
31 yards on 13 carries (2.4 ypc)   That won't cut it.   The Minnesota
defense is nothing special ranking # 17 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game
over the last four weeks.   They come in at # 13 in Fantasy Points Allowed
to RBs.   Both the Tampa Bay WRs, Keyshawn Johnson and Jacquez Green are
less than 100% for this game (and may even be unavailable - stay tuned) so
the Bucs may be forced to run the ball.   The Bucs haven't been scaring many
people through the air as it was and this will let the defense stack against
the run even more.



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Downside Matchups:  These games feature a Defense that could pose trouble
for the Offense.


Chicago's Anthony Thomas / James Allen vs San Francisco Defense

Coach Dick Jauron said Tuesday he "doesn't want to be a one back team" and
that even after Thomas' incredible performance Sunday, Chicago will still
use a RB tandem.   He said they'll be "going with the hot hand".   It's my
guess you'll see Thomas have the hotter hand again this week.   Last week,
he rolled for 188 yards on 22 carries (8.5 ypc) and a TD.   He should have
had another TD as well getting tackled at the 1 after a 46 yard run.   San
Francisco is tough against the run ranking # 6 in Rushing Yards Allowed per
Game over the last 4 weeks.   Although they're just # 19 in Fantasy Points
Allowed to RBs.   I like Thomas here but be leery that Dick Jauron is saying
James Allen will still see time.   It's important to note that last week was
the first week that James Allen did not get a Red Zone opportunity.   And it
was the first week that Anthony Thomas did get one.   The writing is on the
wall and it's my opinion that Jauron is trying to smooth feathers and keep
Allen positive.


Miami's Lamar Smith vs Seattle Defense

This could be a tough game for Lamar Smith.   He's a between the tackles
runner and the Seahawks may give him trouble.  DTs Chad Eaton and John
Randle are a solid pair and MLB Levon Kirkland is tough.   Seattle ranks # 6
in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   They also rank
# 6 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   Travis Minor could see more action
as the Dolphins like his receiving abilities.   Smith is still a solid
player but I'm not excited about this matchup.


New England's Antowain Smith vs Denver Defense

Antowain Smith rushed for 71 yards on 21 carries (3.4 ypc) against a weak
Colt defense Sunday.   Denver is much tougher ranking # 13 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   They're # 11 in Fantasy Points
Allowed to RBs.   The Patriots are all about QB Tom Brady right now and I'd
expect him to stay the focus.   Smith will run just enough to keep the
defense semi-honest.   A decent matchup but certainly no cakewalk.


Philadelphia's Correll Buckhalter /  Duce Staley vs Oakland Defense

Tough to say for certain which back gets the bulk of the work but I think
you'll still see Buckhalter carry most of the load.   At least until Staley
shows he's back and 100%.   Staley had just 3 carries Monday night but
should start slowly working his way back into game shape.   It won't be easy
against a tough Raider Defense ranked # 9 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game
over the last four weeks.


Tennessee's Eddie George vs Pittsburgh Defense

George had been struggling.   Over the last 3 weeks, he's the 26th ranked
RB.   Not what you'd expect out of him.   The task doesn't get any easier
this week against a very tough and aggressive Pittsburgh Defense that ranks
# 8 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   They rank
# 9 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   George is a power rushing RB who
doesn't match up very well with the Pittsburgh defense that's built to stop
the power game.


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Defensive Slam Dunks:  These games feature a very tough Defense posing major
problems for the Offense.


Buffalo's Travis Henry vs San Diego Defense

Henry is running hard but he's struggling to produce numbers worthy of your
starting lineup.   The Offensive Line just isn't creating much for him to
work with.   And he's not an ultra quick guy who can make something out of
nothing.   Henry's best bulldozing through a hole that's opened and
punishing tacklers but he's had little chance to do that.   I don't see this
changing much against a tough San Diego defense ranked # 4 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.   They rank # 3 in Fantasy Points
Allowed to RBs.   All Pro Linebacker Junior Seau is iffy for this game and
that will certainly help Henry if Seau can't go.   Although I still don't
like this matchup.


Jacksonville's Stacey Mack vs Baltimore Defense

Fred Taylor misses another game.   Like that's news.   Stacy Mack is no Fred
Taylor and unfortunately, they'll be facing a Baltimore defense that's as
tough as ever, despite their record.   The Ravens rank # 1 in Rushing Yards
Allowed per Game over the last 4 weeks.   They also rank # 1 in Fantasy
Points Allowed to RBs.   Avoid Mack unless you're in a real pinch.  On the
subject of Taylor, I'm getting a lot of email and I honestly am not hearing
any more than you apparently are (or aren't)   Jacksonville is keeping it
close to the vest.   They're saying it's possible he'll play next week but
that's just a guess at this point.   The injury appears to be very serious
and it's not looking too good.   Not a lot you can do at this point though
if you're a Taylor owner as his trade value's already hit rock bottom.
Hang on and hope for the best.


San Francisco's Garrison Hearst / Kevan Barlow vs Chicago Defense

Chicago continues to rise up the defensive charts with a stifling run
defense.   Last week, they held Corey Dillon down.   Over the last 4 weeks,
they rank # 3 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game.   DTs Keith Traylor and Ted
Washington do a great job of clogging up the middle while MLB Brian Urlacher
is a proven run stopper.   The advantage for Hearst and Barlow over Dillon
is that they run outside more often but still, a very touch matchup.


Washington's Stephen Davis New York Giants Defense

Davis can't seem to find the endzone but he continues to run hard and pile
up some yards.   Over the last 3 weeks, he's gathered 257 total yards which
is solid.   This looks like a tough week for him though as the Giants rank #
2 in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game over the last four weeks.   They rank #
4 in Fantasy Points Allowed to RBs.   Davis is the kind of guy who'll likely
go off when you least expect it but this doesn't look like a good matchup to
me.


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That'll do it for the Rushing Matchups.   Passing Matchups to follow late
tonight.

Joe

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