---------------------- Forwarded by Lorna Brennan/ET&S/Enron on 09/29/2000 
04:47 PM ---------------------------


webmaster@cera.com on 09/29/2000 04:42:45 PM
To: Lorna.Brennan@enron.com
cc:  

Subject: Winter 2001: A Higher Plane - CERA Alert




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CERA Alert: Sent Fri, September 29, 2000
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Title: Winter 2001: A Higher Plane
Author: Moritzburke, Snyder, Zenker
E-Mail Category: Alert
Product Line: Western Energy ,
URL: http://www.cera.com/cfm/track/eprofile.cfm?u=5526&m=1378 ,

Alternative URL: 
http://www.cera.com/client/ce/alt/092800_16/ce_alt_092800_16_ab.html
*********************************************************Cooler temperatures 
and lower energy demand in the West have driven daily power prices below $100 
per megawatt hour (MWh). The summer brought the region's strongest sustained 
power and gas markets in recent history. For fall and winter, CERA expects 
western spot power and gas prices to be higher and more volatile than in past 
years, with October on-peak power prices at $114)$143 per MWh and winter 
prices around $74)$92 per MWh, depending on location. August's El Paso 
pipeline explosion intensified the summer's supply bottlenecks. Although 
service on the Southern system was quickly restored, the supply disruption 
affected storage inventories, with a heavy summer draw in California 
weakening already dwindling inventories. For two weeks, pipeline capacity 
limits on El Paso's pipe into California pushed Topock differentials to 
nearly $2.00 per MMBtu, and the access constraint intensified downward 
pressure on Rocky Mountain!
 and San Juan prices. The Topock differential fell back last week after 
averaging over $1.00 per MMBtu for most of September. The rush to inject 
storage inventories ahead of heating season should limit further declines in 
that differential.

**end**

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