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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Monday, Feb 04, 2002 at 07:05AM EST    Commentary last updated: Monday, Feb 04, 2002 at 09:14AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote     Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS  or Aquila    New! >> Printable PDF Trader Summary  (You must have Adobe Acrobat Reader  to open or print a PDF)   Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'      Today: Monday, February  4, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 25 +1 ERCOT(SP) 54 +2 FRCC(SE) 68 -1 MAAC(NE) 38 +1 MAIN(CTR) 25 +1 MAPP(HP) 25 -1 NPCC(NE) 33 +2 SERC(SE) 50 -1 SPP(SP) 43 NC WSCC(NW) 41 NC WSCC(RK) 34 -1 WSCC(SW) 59 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 22 29 32 38 27 51 50 53 Max 28 35 35 42 33 55 57 59 Min 18 24 28 33 21 45 45 50 Range 10 11 7 9 12 10 12 9 StD-P 3.4 3.0 2.2 2.4 4.4 3.0 2.8 2.3 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:   Pattern has a colder look to it this morning, while the Southern storm track shows signs of action. Eastern ridge gone while arctic air tries to reload to the Northwest.   This may be the first time this winter a forecast understates the cold rather than overstates it. Part of it stems from the snowcover in the Plains, but most of it simply did not give the European enough credit for its SE rotation of a Canadian air mass. I do believe its transient though with some moderation in order by midweek and the five day numbers taken as a whole still are not that cold relative to normal. In many ways, this will be similar to what happened in late December with the largest departures from normal in the South. That will be due more from an active storm track rather than any real intrusion of arctic air. Speaking of south! ern storms, we see rain breaking out across much of Western and Northern Texas today. This system will bring rain to much of the old South the next couple of days. There is some potential for SE coastal development later in the week which could be a Mid-Atlantic snow. But, I am more bullish on the next system in the series which could be a big storm over the weekend. While its turning colder in the East, often times we see a reversal in the West. That does not appear to be the situation in this case. Cold air is trapped in much of the region and the upper level flow is not favorable to scour this out. A gradual moderation may occur, but it still looks below normal.       Tomorrow: Tuesday, February  5, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 35 -1 ERCOT(SP) 45 -4 FRCC(SE) 64 -1 MAAC(NE) 36 -1 MAIN(CTR) 35 -1 MAPP(HP) 31 -1 NPCC(NE) 24 -3 SERC(SE) 43 -2 SPP(SP) 36 -3 WSCC(NW) 43 -1 WSCC(RK) 33 -2 WSCC(SW) 58 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 33 27 40 28 47 45 53 Max 33 37 33 43 34 54 51 58 Min 22 27 20 35 20 42 42 48 Range 11 10 13 8 14 12 9 10 StD-P 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.3 4.7 2.7 2.3 3.0 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Wednesday, February  6, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 37 NC ERCOT(SP) 54 -4 FRCC(SE) 73 +4 MAAC(NE) 40 -2 MAIN(CTR) 35 -1 MAPP(HP) 37 +4 NPCC(NE) 27 -5 SERC(SE) 44 -5 SPP(SP) 43 -7 WSCC(NW) 42 NC WSCC(RK) 39 -2 WSCC(SW) 58 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 35 27 39 33 49 46 54 Max 36 41 32 43 40 51 51 58 Min 29 29 18 36 25 46 40 50 Range 7 12 14 7 15 5 11 8 StD-P 1.6 2.8 3.4 2.1 4.1 1.4 2.8 2.6 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 4: Thursday, February  7, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 39 +1 ERCOT(SP) 61 -2 FRCC(SE) 70 NC MAAC(NE) 42 -3 MAIN(CTR) 36 +1 MAPP(HP) 29 +4 NPCC(NE) 28 -1 SERC(SE) 51 -6 SPP(SP) 51 -5 WSCC(NW) 43 -1 WSCC(RK) 40 +1 WSCC(SW) 60 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 32 34 32 39 34 52 52 55 Max 35 42 36 43 42 55 58 60 Min 29 29 28 36 29 49 47 52 Range 6 13 8 7 13 6 11 8 StD-P 1.7 3.5 2.6 2.3 4.3 1.7 2.9 2.4 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 5: Friday, February  8, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 35 -1 ERCOT(SP) 65 +3 FRCC(SE) 68 -4 MAAC(NE) 42 +3 MAIN(CTR) 30 NC MAPP(HP) 26 +2 NPCC(NE) 32 +9 SERC(SE) 56 NC SPP(SP) 52 +3 WSCC(NW) 44 NC WSCC(RK) 41 +3 WSCC(SW) 61 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 29 34 32 40 34 53 55 56 Max 35 38 35 44 43 59 62 61 Min 22 29 26 34 28 48 51 53 Range 13 9 9 10 15 11 11 8 StD-P 3.5 3.4 1.9 2.6 5.1 3.2 3.4 2.5 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:  The main stories in the 6-10 day period are whether or not the storminess of the European models and the cold showing up in the Canadian verify. The most extreme solution obviously would be a combination of the two, but that seems unlikely given the results of this winter so far. Of the two, I give the storm proposition the most weight. It is possible the East coast could see a sizeable snow out of all of this. As for the cold, the Canadian since the middle of last week has been rebuilding pressures in the NW territories. They become quite high this period, but are still North of the border. It once again becomes a wait and see game to see if some of this real arctic air can come down. That, I am not ready yet to commit to. However, the overall pattern certainly looks colder than January did and for many could run belo! w normal this period.    Day 6: Saturday, February  9, 2002  Click Here  for Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information.  Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 36 +5 ERCOT(SP) 67 +5 FRCC(SE) 71 NC MAAC(NE) 39 +1 MAIN(CTR) 35 +6 MAPP(HP) 32 +7 NPCC(NE) 28 +2 SERC(SE) 57 +4 SPP(SP) 55 +5 WSCC(NW) 42 -3 WSCC(RK) 40 -2 WSCC(SW) 61 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 36 30 40 36 54 55 58 Max 34 41 38 46 42 60 64 61 Min 27 31 19 32 27 49 47 54 Range 7 10 19 14 15 11 17 7 StD-P 1.1 2.4 5.0 4.5 3.9 3.5 5.1 2.1 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Sunday, February 10, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 40 +7 ERCOT(SP) 68 +2 FRCC(SE) 74 +6 MAAC(NE) 42 +7 MAIN(CTR) 37 +4 MAPP(HP) 30 NC NPCC(NE) 28 +3 SERC(SE) 60 +6 SPP(SP) 53 NC WSCC(NW) 41 -3 WSCC(RK) 38 -4 WSCC(SW) 60 -3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 36 30 37 38 54 58 57 Max 35 42 34 44 44 62 64 62 Min 29 31 23 29 30 49 51 52 Range 6 11 11 15 14 13 13 10 StD-P 2.1 3.2 3.1 4.9 4.6 4.2 3.1 3.4 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 8: Monday, February 11, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 42 +3 ERCOT(SP) 67 +3 FRCC(SE) 68 +4 MAAC(NE) 43 +5 MAIN(CTR) 35 -3 MAPP(HP) 25 -3 NPCC(NE) 31 +18 SERC(SE) 58 +2 SPP(SP) 49 +1 WSCC(NW) 33 +5 WSCC(RK) 16 +1 WSCC(SW) 47 -9     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 34 30 36 30 56 61 55 Max 39 39 37 42 45 63 64 61 Min 33 28 21 29 14 50 56 47 Range 6 11 16 13 31 13 8 14 StD-P 1.5 3.3 4.1 4.8 8.7 4.2 2.2 5.1 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Tuesday, February 12, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 37 NC ERCOT(SP) 56 +7 FRCC(SE) 71 +2 MAAC(NE) 51 +3 MAIN(CTR) 26 +2 MAPP(HP) 25 +12 NPCC(NE) 42 +1 SERC(SE) 61 +8 SPP(SP) 34 +3 WSCC(NW) 35 +3 WSCC(RK) 23 +5 WSCC(SW) 48 -7     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 32 39 37 28 59 56 52 Max 38 39 44 42 41 63 64 59 Min 29 27 33 31 19 55 50 47 Range 9 12 11 11 22 8 14 12 StD-P 3.0 4.0 4.5 2.9 8.0 2.3 3.9 4.8 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 10: Wednesday, February 13, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 31 +16 ERCOT(SP) 46 +1 FRCC(SE) 70 +10 MAAC(NE) 39 +13 MAIN(CTR) 29 +18 MAPP(HP) 33 +17 NPCC(NE) 30 -1 SERC(SE) 55 +20 SPP(SP) 39 +1 WSCC(NW) 36 -1 WSCC(RK) 29 -1 WSCC(SW) 52 -5     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 26 26 34 31 19 54 43 44 Max 31 35 39 36 29 58 48 52 Min 17 17 32 26 6 50 36 34 Range 14 18 7 10 23 8 12 18 StD-P 5.2 5.7 2.5 4.0 7.9 3.3 3.3 7.1 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]