if the number last week was right, then that looks possible.  however, 2 weeks ago the # came out higher than everybody thought so all the models were jacked up.  aga is certainly much better than the api but still cant put too much into one number

-----Original Message-----
From: Fraser, Jennifer 
Sent: Monday, July 30, 2001 8:15 AM
To: Arnold, John
Subject: AGA below 70


what do you think of a 63 aga?

-----Original Message----- 
From: Arnold, John 
Sent: Mon 7/30/2001 8:11 AM 
To: Fraser, Jennifer 
Cc: 
Subject: RE: 


think trade reluctant to sell here until they see aga on wednesday and knowing that tropical activity will develop at some point.  however, think the failure from 335 last thursday will weigh on people.  think that nobody wants to own above 325, only as very short term trade to sell to someone else 5-10 cents higher unless aga is very bullish.

-----Original Message-----
From: Fraser, Jennifer 
Sent: Monday, July 30, 2001 8:01 AM
To: Arnold, John
Subject: RE:


I like it. But I am the minority. relative to nat gas I think HO has greter propensity to spike. right now I am working on just such analysis -will have details late rthis week.  I will probably spread TZ6 or NYMEX vs HO (going long the ho portion). Remember that unlike NG, about 90-92% of HO is made on demand -so stocks are not as important. also I think relative to NG HO sotcks are lower in that we are not headed to all time highs lin ho like we are in ng.also EUrope had ver vey warm winter last year. Reversion to norm especially in early (nov-mar) could keep things tighter if arb opens to EC.
We are beginning to see run cuts. I think OPEC is serious.
what si your view on ng t this week and next?
-----Original Message----- 
From: Arnold, John 
Sent: Mon 7/30/2001 7:39 AM 
To: Fraser, Jennifer 
Cc: 
Subject: 



what's your longer term 3-12 month view of heat?  thinking about buying against short natty for next summer.