**********************************************************************
CERA Watch: Sent Tue, December 12, 2000
**********************************************************************

Title: Atlantic Basin Markets Precariously Balanced for Winter
Author: Refined Products Team
E-Mail Category: Watch
Product Line: Refined Products ,

URL: http://www.cera.com/client/rp/wch/121200_19/rp_wch_121200_19_ab.html
*********************************************************

A psychology of shortage--driven by short-term
fundamentals and amplified by political events affecting
the crude oil market--has dominated refined products
markets for much of 2000. But does this signal a
fundamental shift in the business environment for the
refining industry? Probably not, since the margin
strength of this year has been the result of the
declining inventories and steeply backwardated futures
prices that have been a feature of crude oil and refined
products markets through most of 1999 and 2000. Global
refining capacity continues to outpace demand with
notable additions to effective capacity in Asia, the
Middle East, and Africa in store for 2001. As a result,
CERA's outlook is for moderating refining margins as the
year progresses.

**end**

Follow URL for PDF version of Full Report.

*********************************************************
Come Shoot the Rapids with us at CERAWeek2001, "Shooting the Rapids: 
Strategies and Risks for the Energy Future" in Houston, February 12-16, 
2001!  For more information and to register, please visit 
http://www.cera.com/ceraweek/
*********************************************************





**********************************************************************
This electronic message and attachments, if any, contain information
from Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Inc. (CERA) which is
confidential and may be privileged. Unauthorized disclosure, copying,
distribution or use of the contents of this message or any attachments,
in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited.

Terms of Use: http://www.cera.com/tos.html
Questions/Comments: webmaster@cera.com
Copyright 2000. Cambridge Energy Research Associates