For those that have not seen this analysis, attached please find a note from Mary Schoen detailing the serious physical shortage problems that may occur this Summer in CA.

Jim

----- Forwarded by James D Steffes/NA/Enron on 02/26/2001 08:51 AM -----


	Mary Schoen 02/22/2001 02:55 PM 	   To: Neil Bresnan/HOU/EES@EES, Alan Comnes/PDX/ECT@ECT, Jubran Whalan/HOU/EES@EES, Kristin Walsh/HOU/ECT@ECT, Clayton Seigle/HOU/ECT@ECT, Jeffrey Keeler/Corp/Enron@ENRON, James D Steffes/NA/Enron@Enron, Harry Kingerski/NA/Enron@Enron, Richard Shapiro/NA/Enron@Enron, Janel Guerrero/Corp/Enron@Enron, Jeff Dasovich/NA/Enron@Enron, Sandra McCubbin/NA/Enron@Enron, Susan J Mara/NA/Enron@ENRON, Paul Kaufman/PDX/ECT@ECT  cc:   Subject: CA Supply Realities	


Attached is a memo comparing the CEC's forecasted supply and a more realistic look at what additional resources might be available this summer.

The bottom line is that:

1.  The CEC significantly underestimates the outages that may occur this summer.  They estimate in their 5,000 MW supply deficit for the summer that expected outages will be around 3,000MW.  However, November and December saw significantly higher outage levels.  (7,265 MWs) The FERC has investigated these outages and found no improprieties- just that the plants are overtaxed from running at higher than normal capacities.

2.  There are a lot of uncertainties surrounding the 1,244 MWs of projected supply from rerating/restarting existing thermal and renewable projects.  It is very unclear how much of this will be able to come on line by this summer, if at all.  As evidenced by the e-mail I sent out this morning, local communities may be very opposed to restarting shut down units.  In addition, these units are likely to be uneconomical.

3.  In the existing resource pool, there are roughly 1,430 MWs of peaking or other generation units that are running up against their operating hour limitations from air quality regulations.  The Governor has ordered the local air quality districts to address these restrictions,  We are beginning to seem some movement; however, the US EPA has yet to weigh in on these relaxed standards.

4.  The distributed generation/back-up generation capacity to make up some of the shortfall is still an unknown.  While there has been some relaxing of the limitations on run hours for back-up generation at "essential public services" the increase in DG is expected from "clean" sources, not diesel emergency generators.

5.  The CEC is doing everything it can to get 50+ MW peaking units on-line by this summer.  They are promising a 21-day permit application approval process and are offering to pay half of the cost of offsets, for "clean" sources of generation in critical areas.

Please let me know if you have any questions or need additional information.

 

CEC's Summer Forecasted Peak Demand - Resource Balance:

 
 
List of Peakers running into their operating hour limitations:

 

Also available in hard copy format only:
(please e-mail me your fax number if you'd like a copy)

Table 1:  Fully Executed CA ISO Summer Reliability Agreements (the ISO Peaking Facilities)
Table 2:  Summer 2001 Supply Options - Renewables Construction Status Summary
Table 3:  Summer 2001 Supply Options - Rerate of Non-CEC Projects
Table 4:  Summer 2001 Supply Options - CEC Rerate Status Summary
Table 5:  Idle Biomass Plants Potentially Capable of Restart
Mary Schoen
Environmental Strategies
Enron Corp
713-345-7422