-----Original Message-----
From: 	Ryan, David  
Sent:	Thursday, September 27, 2001 5:38 AM
To:	Fischer, Mark; Belden, Tim; Heizenrader, Tim
Cc:	Pace, Andy; Decook, Todd
Subject:	Weather Update

Good Morning, Mark. An early note about the weather. 

This remains a very difficult forecast for the Southwest and California. Today's models have pretty much flipped around from yesterday - that is to say that the hot models yesterday are now cool and the cool models yesterday are now hot. 

The three players on the field remain the ridge in the West, the incoming trof, or storm, in the Pacific early next week and Hurricane Julliette. The interaction of which is very crucial for the weather next week. 

Today's American/MRF model and the NAVY model brings the trof to the CA coast by Monday and brings Juliette in the SW. By doing this, it is painting strongly cooling temperatures in CA and the SW early next week. We'd be talking 80s & lower 90s (though humid) in PHX and Las Vegas with 70s in the load centers of CA. I give this scenario a 30% of happening - the coolest scenario. 

Today's European model, a good model in the West, has a compromise - strongly heating coastal California next Monday and Tuesday while bringing at least some of Juliette's moisture in CA/SW. This would only mean some cooling in the SW with a major increase in humidity and at least 2 days of hot, humid weather in California, even at the coast. This scenario is 40% likely now and would still mean strong loads early next week in CA and the SW. 

Today's Canadian model shows the ridge in the West dominate - holding off both Juliette and the incoming storm from the Pacific through next week. This would mean little change in PHX & Las Vegas and at least several days of near record heat in California. This scenario would represent the other hot extreme and I give this about a 30% chance to happen. 

The market will likely either follow the cool scenario altogether or be uncertain - Very few ball players will recognize the potential in this pattern. I am still leaning toward the idea that a 70% of decent heat and humidity in CA and the SW, but obviously with subtle uncertain details that make a huge difference in the weather its still too early to tell exactly. 

Please forward this to those in interest - please call if there are any questions or interest in a conference. 

- Dave Ryan