Here are the components as I see them:

1999 numbers for C&I are fine; I'd do 10%, 15%, 20% reductions.
Assume C&I takes its proportionate share of the DWR's net short (i.e., if C&I 
is 2/3 of load, then 2/3 of CDW purchases should go to C&I)
You can use the average price used in the DWR presentation to Legislators to 
the $ amount.  The copy I've got sez that the average price for the first 5 
years is $79/MWH.  That seems like the # we ought to use.
Now the hard part.  The state reportedly sez that they aren't buying the 
entire net short---only that part that they feel like covering.  So how do we 
factor that in?  Not sure that we can get detailed data (but check with Alan 
Comnes, who might be able to provide ISO real time prices (which is where the 
net short (of the net short) is being filled ISO---the ISO then sends that 
bill to PG&E.
An easier way might be to use PG&E's numbers.  In their bankruptcy 
announcement, PG&E sez that it's been costing them $300MM per month ($300MM * 
0.67 * 0.10 =~$20MM).  We could scale this number up to account for summer 
purchases.
Alternatively, we could use ENA's forward curve.


This is very quick and dirty (apologies) and I may have gotten something very 
wrong.  If I've got any fatal flaws in the thinking (which happens often), 
please point them out.  And if you have any questions, don't hesitate.

Best,
Jeff






	Jennifer Thome
	04/10/2001 12:17 PM
		 
		 To: Jeff Dasovich/NA/Enron@Enron
		 cc: Robert.Neustaedter@enron.com
		 Subject: Savings for CWDR

Jeff:

Robert and I wanted to follow up with you on your question about savings that 
could be realized if 10% of lg. C&Is found other energy suppliers.
Please provide a bit more info. about what you are interested in:

*Would it be a subtraction of 10% of C&I load or customers?
*How precise do we need to be, i.e., can I estimate figures based on 1999 
load?

It is probably best to reply via e-mail.

Thanks, Jennifer