FYI, Kim.

 -----Original Message-----
From: 	Pavlou, Larry  
Sent:	Thursday, December 27, 2001 10:13 AM
To:	Neubauer, Dave; Miller, Kent; Neville, Sue; Watson, Kimberly; Williams, Jo; Fowler, Bill; Bolks, Sean; Mercaldo, Vernon; Pritchard, John; Roobaert, Preston
Subject:	NYMEX Technical Update

Since December 3rd, we've had a market structure in place that cited 2.960 as a key pivot on the prompt continuation chart; that is, if prices were to close > 2.960, the longer-term market structure would change to a bullish bias breaking out from the range-bound trading we've seen over the last three weeks.

On Tuesday night, December 25th, prompt JAN 02 reached a high of 3.050 during Access and then proceeded to close at 2.911 at the end of the regular pit session on Wednesday, December 26th.  Furthermore, prices continued to erode during last night's Access and closed at 2.775.  Currently, JAN 02 is trading at 2.680 on its expiry, and FEB 02 is trading at 2.700.  

With the inability of the prompt to close > 2.960, and a subsequent sharp drop in prices, it is logical to infer that 3.050 was definitely a short to intermediate term top. What this means is if the move from 3.440 to 2.180 was an A wave down (a 1.260 decline), and the move from 2.180 to 3.050 was the B wave up, then the downside targets (C wave down) are 2.270 (.618 of A=C) and 1.790 (A=C).