Any idea what amount of switching in gas equivalents does the implied demand 
of resid equate to?


   
	
	
	From:  Jennifer Fraser                           12/20/2000 03:05 AM
	

To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:  
Subject: APIs

JA:
See note on switching. It is hard to monitor the distiallte because any 
switching is being absorbed by the incessant arrival of European cargoes. We 
hope to have you guys some better numbers before the end of the week.

---------------------- Forwarded by Jennifer Fraser/HOU/ECT on 20/12/2000 
09:00 ---------------------------


Alex Mcleish@ENRON
20/12/2000 02:40
To: London, jennifer.fraser@enron.com, Sarah Mulholland/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:  
Subject: APIs

PIRA report attached - bit uninspired this week, like the stats.

Crude went back to the usual pattern and built 2 .4 mbbls, as opposed to an 
implied draw (excl SPR) of 2 (although half of this in PADD 5). Perhaps 
surprisingly, runs were down again, but most of this was non-CDU, and 
gasoline bore the brunt of the output drop as a result. 
Distillate demand, the main factor to watch, did fall, but not by much (240 
kbd), and only another weak import showing prevented a build. The cold 
weather and switching are definitely having an impact, as this demand is well 
above last year's Y2K inflated levels. Most of the draw was in low sulphur 
material, but PADD 1 still suffered a 500 kbbls drop in heating oil stocks. 
However, it does sems to be building up in PADD 3.
Gasoline stocks did build, but interestingly only in blending components, not 
the finished material. Evidence of high gas prices impacting on production? 
Stocks rose in PADD 1 by almost the same amount as they fell in PADD 3. 
Imports were very strong, however, at 500 kbd.
Again, the real shoker was resid - demand up 57% to 1600 kbd, an incredibly 
high number, and clear evidence (if repeated next week) of switching.