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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Monday, Nov 19, 2001 at 07:33AM EST    Commentary last updated: Monday, Nov 19, 2001 at 09:21AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten   APB Energy / True Quote     Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS  or Aquila    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'     Today: Monday, November 19, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 56 -1 ERCOT(SP) 64 NC FRCC(SE) 79 +1 MAAC(NE) 64 -1 MAIN(CTR) 44 +5 MAPP(HP) 42 +7 NPCC(NE) 59 NC SERC(SE) 71 +1 SPP(SP) 51 NC WSCC(NW) 52 NC WSCC(RK) 51 +5 WSCC(SW) 66 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 46 40 55 50 40 67 60 61 Max 51 50 61 53 51 72 63 67 Min 43 33 52 46 29 63 56 57 Range 8 17 9 7 22 9 7 10 StD-P 1.5 5.0 2.9 2.0 6.2 2.8 1.5 2.4 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:    Much colder air now in the Plains will translate East. Zonal flow by midweek will modify the effects. Legitimate arctic air starts to pool in Western Canada late next week.  Last weeks double digit above normal readings are a thing of the past as a strong cold front has moved through the Plains. Temperatures in the teens and 20's are common there this morning. It is colder, I grant you, but my fears of not seeing any real arctic air in this have turned out to be correct. In fact, a return to zonal flow is expected before the end of the week and another warm up commences. Now, the jet stream is suppressed farther South, so we won't see a return to the previous 2 weeks warmth. However, a return to slightly above normal is possible late in the 5 day period so temperature departures this! week are not that significant. This of course is an important travel week due to the holiday. I do not see a major storm in the immediate horizon. The current Eastern front does have some moisture with it. Showers have broken out ahead of it and eventually some Lake Effect snows could occur tomorrow and Wednesday. The West coast has some rain this morning, but this storm should weaken inland and no major temperature trend changes are seen in the short range for this area.  Tomorrow: Tuesday, November 20, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 40 +3 ERCOT(SP) 60 NC FRCC(SE) 77 +2 MAAC(NE) 46 -5 MAIN(CTR) 42 +5 MAPP(HP) 48 +10 NPCC(NE) 44 -6 SERC(SE) 58 +2 SPP(SP) 57 +4 WSCC(NW) 50 -2 WSCC(RK) 57 +4 WSCC(SW) 66 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 38 48 46 47 45 60 52 61 Max 44 60 50 53 58 64 62 67 Min 33 42 42 44 33 56 43 56 Range 11 18 8 9 25 8 19 11 StD-P 3.2 5.6 1.4 2.0 7.2 1.8 4.2 2.9 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Wednesday, November 21, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 45 +7 ERCOT(SP) 64 +1 FRCC(SE) 71 +5 MAAC(NE) 44 +1 MAIN(CTR) 51 +8 MAPP(HP) 52 +7 NPCC(NE) 39 -1 SERC(SE) 55 +3 SPP(SP) 61 +5 WSCC(NW) 48 NC WSCC(RK) 51 +2 WSCC(SW) 64 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 43 48 35 45 44 52 55 61 Max 51 56 41 49 53 59 64 65 Min 38 42 31 41 36 44 48 57 Range 13 14 10 8 17 15 16 8 StD-P 3.5 4.0 2.9 2.2 4.5 4.5 4.3 2.3 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 4: Thursday, November 22, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 50 +6 ERCOT(SP) 68 NC FRCC(SE) 73 +2 MAAC(NE) 51 +6 MAIN(CTR) 49 +6 MAPP(HP) 46 +4 NPCC(NE) 43 +3 SERC(SE) 62 +6 SPP(SP) 59 +4 WSCC(NW) 49 NC WSCC(RK) 48 +3 WSCC(SW) 65 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 44 45 39 45 44 56 59 61 Max 48 50 45 49 49 64 66 65 Min 41 39 34 43 39 51 53 58 Range 7 11 11 6 10 13 13 7 StD-P 2.0 3.7 3.0 1.7 3.2 3.3 4.0 2.0 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 5: Friday, November 23, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 51 +6 ERCOT(SP) 73 +3 FRCC(SE) 76 +1 MAAC(NE) 54 +6 MAIN(CTR) 49 +4 MAPP(HP) 45 +3 NPCC(NE) 46 +6 SERC(SE) 65 +5 SPP(SP) 59 +2 WSCC(NW) 45 NC WSCC(RK) 44 +1 WSCC(SW) 62 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 46 44 45 40 39 62 64 58 Max 48 47 48 45 46 66 69 62 Min 42 39 39 37 32 57 57 55 Range 6 8 9 8 14 9 12 7 StD-P 2.1 3.0 2.1 1.8 4.1 2.3 4.7 2.1 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:   I am still not expecting any major arctic out breaks in the 6-10 day period, but hemispheric changes during the period may well spell an arctic outbreak going into early December.  It will be interesting to see if arctic air now forecast to pool in Western Canada next week materializes at the expected rate and intensity. Assuming it does, then a SE spreading is due just outside this period. But, before that happens inside this period, models are leaning towards a significant storm forming in the SW and heading towards the Great Lakes.  Overall, temperatures may return to above normal in the East ahead of this feature. The West may go below normal in response to the deep trough if in fact it materializes.  Day 6: Saturday, November 24, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 52 +5 ERCOT(SP) 72 +3 FRCC(SE) 78 +2 MAAC(NE) 54 +3 MAIN(CTR) 51 +5 MAPP(HP) 43 +3 NPCC(NE) 47 +4 SERC(SE) 67 +4 SPP(SP) 59 +3 WSCC(NW) 44 -1 WSCC(RK) 39 -3 WSCC(SW) 57 -5     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 46 38 47 38 31 64 65 52 Max 52 44 50 44 39 68 70 57 Min 43 35 44 36 25 60 61 47 Range 9 9 6 8 14 8 9 10 StD-P 3.0 2.1 1.3 2.0 4.1 1.8 2.9 3.5 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Sunday, November 25, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 51 +4 ERCOT(SP) 71 NC FRCC(SE) 78 +4 MAAC(NE) 55 +2 MAIN(CTR) 47 +1 MAPP(HP) 38 -2 NPCC(NE) 48 +3 SERC(SE) 67 +4 SPP(SP) 56 -3 WSCC(NW) 44 NC WSCC(RK) 34 -7 WSCC(SW) 57 -3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 44 35 48 37 27 65 65 50 Max 51 38 54 44 35 69 68 57 Min 41 33 44 34 22 62 62 44 Range 10 5 10 10 13 7 6 13 StD-P 2.8 1.7 3.0 2.5 5.1 2.0 1.5 4.2 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 8: Monday, November 26, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 43 -5 ERCOT(SP) 64 -5 FRCC(SE) 71 +4 MAAC(NE) 42 +1 MAIN(CTR) 48 -7 MAPP(HP) 38 -12 NPCC(NE) 41 +3 SERC(SE) 62 +4 SPP(SP) 55 -8 WSCC(NW) 32 +3 WSCC(RK) 18 -8 WSCC(SW) 43 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 44 34 45 36 26 65 62 49 Max 46 40 56 43 36 69 70 57 Min 41 29 41 32 18 62 54 43 Range 5 11 15 11 18 7 16 14 StD-P 1.6 2.9 3.5 3.4 5.6 2.4 2.5 4.6 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Tuesday, November 27, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 55 NC ERCOT(SP) 56 -9 FRCC(SE) 72 +3 MAAC(NE) 50 -2 MAIN(CTR) 50 -8 MAPP(HP) 31 -7 NPCC(NE) 40 -3 SERC(SE) 65 +3 SPP(SP) 41 -11 WSCC(NW) 31 -7 WSCC(RK) 11 -8 WSCC(SW) 42 -4     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 43 29 46 35 21 64 54 48 Max 55 37 52 41 35 69 66 56 Min 35 24 43 31 11 61 48 42 Range 20 13 9 10 24 8 18 14 StD-P 6.0 4.9 2.8 3.6 7.7 2.4 4.2 4.6 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 10: Wednesday, November 28, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 45 -8 ERCOT(SP) 54 +3 FRCC(SE) 73 +2 MAAC(NE) 59 +2 MAIN(CTR) 32 -8 MAPP(HP) 17 -2 NPCC(NE) 51 NC SERC(SE) 65 +1 SPP(SP) 32 -2 WSCC(NW) 32 -3 WSCC(RK) 10 -17 WSCC(SW) 43 -7     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 20 46 34 17 60 47 44 Max 36 30 54 36 26 66 48 48 Min 31 15 27 32 9 49 44 42 Range 5 15 27 4 17 17 4 6 StD-P 1.1 5.1 7.9 1.3 5.3 5.2 1.2 1.8 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]