[IMAGE]	


[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Friday, Oct 19, 2001 at 09:51AM ET    Commentary last updated: Friday, Oct 19, 2001 at 09:56AM ET  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote     Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS  or Aquila    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'     Today: Friday, October 19, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 61 +3 ERCOT(SP) 80 +3 FRCC(SE) 84 +1 MAAC(NE) 61 -1 MAIN(CTR) 59 +2 MAPP(HP) 57 NC NPCC(NE) 58 -1 SERC(SE) 72 NC SPP(SP) 72 +2 WSCC(NW) 61 -1 WSCC(RK) 63 NC WSCC(SW) 77 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 55 56 56 57 58 69 74 75 Max 62 63 60 63 65 75 79 80 Min 49 48 50 53 49 63 64 71 Range 13 15 10 10 16 12 15 9 StD-P 3.4 4.2 3.1 3.0 4.8 3.6 4.4 2.4 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10    Day 1-5 Discussion:   Zonal flow keeps the short term quiet. Major jet stream amplification expected in the medium range with arctic outbreak possible.  A weak cold front is crossing the Midwest today, but with very little change in sensible weather. The only significant storminess over the next several days would be a heavy rain threat over the Southern half of Florida and a moderate rain threat in the Pacific NW. When I last wrote on Monday, I discussed the potential for a trough to form in the Western U.S. It clearly has not happened though I mentioned that a zonal flow would also accomplish the forecasted warm up. This milder air should stay in place into the middle of next week. The Western Atlantic ridge has also strengthened in recent days which should force Gulf and East coast temperatures to go above normal by ea! rly next week after a couple of more coolish days. There are no named storms in the tropics at this time. A couple of flare-ups in the Caribbean bear watching, but likely would not develop until Monday at the earliest, if then.  Tomorrow: Saturday, October 20, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 64 +2 ERCOT(SP) 82 NC FRCC(SE) 84 +1 MAAC(NE) 66 +2 MAIN(CTR) 64 -1 MAPP(HP) 59 -3 NPCC(NE) 61 +2 SERC(SE) 77 +1 SPP(SP) 77 NC WSCC(NW) 60 +1 WSCC(RK) 63 -1 WSCC(SW) 76 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 58 57 58 54 60 72 77 74 Max 66 66 65 60 67 78 82 78 Min 51 48 52 50 50 65 69 70 Range 15 18 13 10 17 13 13 8 StD-P 3.5 4.5 3.7 3.5 4.9 4.2 4.0 2.3 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10   Day 3: Sunday, October 21, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 67 NC ERCOT(SP) 84 +1 FRCC(SE) 83 -1 MAAC(NE) 69 +3 MAIN(CTR) 62 -2 MAPP(HP) 56 -2 NPCC(NE) 62 +3 SERC(SE) 79 +3 SPP(SP) 74 -2 WSCC(NW) 55 +1 WSCC(RK) 59 +1 WSCC(SW) 73 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 57 54 59 52 58 73 77 71 Max 62 62 66 57 65 80 82 74 Min 52 45 55 47 48 68 69 66 Range 10 17 11 10 17 12 13 8 StD-P 3.3 4.8 3.2 2.5 4.9 4.1 4.6 2.5 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8   Day 4: Monday, October 22, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 65 -1 ERCOT(SP) 84 +1 FRCC(SE) 84 -1 MAAC(NE) 70 +1 MAIN(CTR) 62 -1 MAPP(HP) 54 -1 NPCC(NE) 61 NC SERC(SE) 79 +1 SPP(SP) 75 +1 WSCC(NW) 54 -1 WSCC(RK) 57 NC WSCC(SW) 72 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 54 52 61 49 51 74 77 68 Max 60 57 64 54 59 80 82 72 Min 51 48 56 45 46 69 73 66 Range 9 9 8 9 13 11 9 6 StD-P 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.8 3.9 3.4 3.1 1.8 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6   Day 5: Tuesday, October 23, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 68 -1 ERCOT(SP) 84 +1 FRCC(SE) 86 +1 MAAC(NE) 68 -1 MAIN(CTR) 63 -2 MAPP(HP) 56 -3 NPCC(NE) 59 -1 SERC(SE) 79 +1 SPP(SP) 73 -1 WSCC(NW) 54 NC WSCC(RK) 54 +2 WSCC(SW) 72 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 58 52 58 45 50 74 77 68 Max 62 57 62 54 56 80 81 72 Min 55 46 54 41 43 71 70 65 Range 7 11 8 13 13 9 11 7 StD-P 2.6 3.9 2.6 2.9 4.1 3.3 4.6 2.0 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6    Day 6-10 Discussion:  Weather patterns in the 6-10 day range should become much more interesting and bullish. All of the models forecast a strong dip of the polar jet to occur into the Plains late next week. There are some discrepancies in the intensity and how fast it moves East. However, given some very strong winds in the Pacific and some very cold air now over the Arctic, I expect this to be significant. Persistence also should pay off in this forecast. These troughs have not had any problem digging into the Eastern U.S. since Labor Day while troughs into the West have been non-existence. This could be giving us clues on how the winter will go. The good news is that will aid in verifying my winter outlook, the bad news is it could result in a long season in the East. Specifics can wait until next week as the event gets closer. A couple! of highlights though would likely be accumulating snows in the Northern U.S. and double digit below normal temperatures invading the Plains and spreading East. As is usually the case, a strong trough in the East results in significant ridging(with warmer, drier air) in the Western U.S.  Day 6: Wednesday, October 24, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 66 +1 ERCOT(SP) 83 +4 FRCC(SE) 86 +1 MAAC(NE) 69 NC MAIN(CTR) 62 +3 MAPP(HP) 53 +1 NPCC(NE) 62 -1 SERC(SE) 79 +2 SPP(SP) 71 +5 WSCC(NW) 52 -2 WSCC(RK) 48 -1 WSCC(SW) 70 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 56 48 61 44 44 75 75 67 Max 60 57 64 52 59 80 81 70 Min 52 41 54 39 31 72 71 62 Range 8 16 10 13 28 8 10 8 StD-P 3.0 5.9 2.7 4.1 9.9 2.2 3.9 3.4 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 7: Thursday, October 25, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 63 +6 ERCOT(SP) 79 +2 FRCC(SE) 85 +1 MAAC(NE) 69 +6 MAIN(CTR) 56 +1 MAPP(HP) 46 -7 NPCC(NE) 62 +5 SERC(SE) 76 +4 SPP(SP) 63 -2 WSCC(NW) 54 -2 WSCC(RK) 47 -6 WSCC(SW) 70 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 48 39 62 46 36 73 68 63 Max 54 48 64 54 48 78 75 71 Min 46 35 60 39 27 69 65 52 Range 8 13 4 15 21 9 10 19 StD-P 2.4 4.7 1.6 3.7 7.5 1.9 3.1 6.0 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 8: Friday, October 26, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 47 +9 ERCOT(SP) 58 -3 FRCC(SE) 76 +6 MAAC(NE) 65 +21 MAIN(CTR) 37 NC MAPP(HP) 36 NC NPCC(NE) 59 +14 SERC(SE) 66 +11 SPP(SP) 45 -5 WSCC(NW) 53 NC WSCC(RK) 44 -5 WSCC(SW) 66 -3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 45 44 58 51 42 70 67 67 Max 50 52 60 59 56 73 79 72 Min 39 41 52 43 31 68 55 62 Range 11 11 8 16 25 5 24 10 StD-P 4.3 3.2 2.2 5.3 7.1 1.9 10.3 2.6 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 9: Saturday, October 27, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 34 -2 ERCOT(SP) 55 -13 FRCC(SE) 65 +1 MAAC(NE) 45 +3 MAIN(CTR) 35 -6 MAPP(HP) 35 -14 NPCC(NE) 51 +9 SERC(SE) 51 NC SPP(SP) 55 -9 WSCC(NW) 55 +9 WSCC(RK) 48 -6 WSCC(SW) 68 +2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 38 45 47 50 43 58 60 65 Max 43 52 50 56 54 69 66 73 Min 34 31 41 32 23 54 55 50 Range 9 21 9 24 31 15 11 23 StD-P 3.9 6.7 2.9 8.8 10.1 5.6 5.1 7.3 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4   Day 10: Sunday, October 28, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 30 -12 ERCOT(SP) 63 -9 FRCC(SE) 64 -2 MAAC(NE) 36 -3 MAIN(CTR) 29 -24 MAPP(HP) 40 -13 NPCC(NE) 38 -3 SERC(SE) 50 -3 SPP(SP) 57 -13 WSCC(NW) 50 +13 WSCC(RK) 52 +8 WSCC(SW) 69 +10     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 32 49 37 48 46 52 61 63 Max 34 52 37 50 51 53 63 69 Min 32 43 37 45 36 49 57 52 Range 2 9 0 5 15 4 6 17 StD-P 1.2 4.1 0.1 2.6 6.7 1.8 2.6 7.5 Count 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]