Enerfax Daily
NORTH AMERICA'S FREE POWER AND GAS INFORMATION SOURCE 
              Tuesday, January 29 2002 No. 922
Visit: http://www.enerfax.com to view our web version or for Oil 
Prices & News http://www.enerfaxgold.com

PHYSICAL NATURAL GAS PRICES ??
Gulf/Eastern Region     
| Agua Dulce              | 1.91  |
| ANR SE                  | 1.98  |
| Carthage TG             | 1.96  |
| Chicago Citygate        | 2.04  |
| Columbia Gulf Onshore   | 2.00  |
| Dominion South Point    | 2.10  |
| Henry Hub               | 2.02  |
| Houston Ship Channel    | 2.02  |
| Katy Hub                | 1.96  |
| NGPL LA Pool            | 1.95  |
| NGPL - Midcontinent     | 1.92  |
| NGPL STX                | 1.93  |
| NGPL TX/OK              | 1.94  |
| NNG Demarc.             | 2.02  |
| Niagara                 | 2.19  |
| Sonat Tier 1            | 1.99  |
| TCO IPP Pool            | 2.11  |
| Tetco ELa               | 1.99  |
| Tetco M-3               | 2.25  |
| Tetco STX               | 1.93  |
| TGP Zone 0              | 1.93  |
| TGP Zone 1 (500 Leg)    | 1.97  |
| TGT Zone SL             | 2.00  |
| New York Citygate       | 2.28  |
| Transco Station 65      | 2.05  |
| Transco Zone 6 (NY)     | 2.28  |
| Trunk ELa               | 1.99  |
| Western Region          
| California Border       | 2.08  |
| El Paso Keystone        | 1.94  |
| El Paso San Juan-Blanco | 1.95  |
| Waha Hub                | 1.94  |
| Canadian/Rockies Region 
| Nova/Aeco (C$/gig)      | 2.83  |
| Dawn Hub/Union          | 2.15  |
| Northwest Stanfield     | 2.05  |
| Wyoming Pool            | 1.88  |
| Opal                    | 1.88  |
| PGT-Malin               | 2.09  |
| Sumas                   | 2.05  |
         Flow Date 1/29
-------------------------------------------------------------

NATURAL GAS FUTURES
Henry Hub 
12 Month Strip ?2.3724 -0.0866 ? ? ? 
18 Month Strip ?2.5266 -0.0760? ? 
| Month | High  |  Low  | Close | Change |
| FEB   | 2.025 | 1.850 | 1.908 | -0.129 |
| MAR   | 2.090 | 1.960 | 1.984 | -0.120 |
| APR   | 2.180 | 2.060 | 2.079 | -0.101 |
| MAY   | 2.270 | 2.160 | 2.175 | -0.094 |
| JUN   | 2.340 | 2.255 | 2.255 | -0.087 |
| JUL   | 2.410 | 2.320 | 2.330 | -0.084 |
| AUG   | 2.465 | 2.380 | 2.390 | -0.077 |
| SEP   | 2.475 | 2.375 | 2.399 | -0.077 |
| OCT   | 2.500 | 2.410 | 2.429 | -0.074 |
| NOV   | 2.720 | 2.664 | 2.664 | -0.069 |
| DEC   | 2.955 | 2.879 | 2.879 | -0.066 |
| JAN   | 3.040 | 2.977 | 2.977 | -0.061 |
-------------------------------------------------------------
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Natural Gas Futures Tumble Below $2


     Natural gas futures for February delivery on the NYMEX tumbled 
6.3% yesterday, falling $0.129 to $1.908 per MMBtu. The March 
contract lost $0.12 to $1.984 per MMBtu. The market opened lower 
yesterday morning and soon dropped below $2. It was the lowest price 
seen since last September's $1.83 per MMBtu expiration for the 
October contract. In afternoon trading prices dipped as low as $1.85 
on a bearish weather forecast, but quickly recovered to finish the 
session on an up-tick. Physical prices were kept up by cooler weather 
in the Mid-continent region. Cold weather in the West also pushed up 
cash prices there, but only marginally. The AGA report to be released 
tomorrow afternoon is expected to show a withdrawal of about 110 ? 
120 Bcf. Look for the cash market to follow the NYMEX downward today, 
although weather concerns in the nation's midsection reflect a slight 
bullishness. Natural gas for next day delivery across the US and 
Canada was generally flat to down $0.05 yesterday. Natural gas for 
next day delivery at the Henry hub lost $0.01 to $2.02 per MMBtu.
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Today's Power Bulletins
 * Head of the National Association of Regulatory and Utility 
Commissioners Tells Senate Committee Today Federal Regulations Needed 
to Reform Power Market to Restore Public Confidence and Protect 
Consumers from Potential Financial Disasters 
 * Salomon Report Says Merchant Power and Natural Gas Sector Outlook 
Solid 
 * Midwest ISO, PJM and Southwest Power Pool Announce Single Market 
Design Forum
 * Enron Employees Band Together to File Lawsuit Against Retirement 
Plan Custodians and Enron Directors 
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Enron's Due on Enron Wind Sale

    Bids for Enron Wind were due yesterday, as the profitable company 
is expected to soon be sold to European owners. Five companies are in 
the running, so it is likely to take Enron several weeks to announce 
a buyer. The purchase price is likely to be about $500 million. Enron 
Wind is making money and is not included in Enron's bankruptcy 
filing. Its revenues jumped from about $50 million when it was 
acquired by Enron in 1997 to $750 million in 2001. Last year was by 
far the best year in the company's history. The bankruptcy court will 
have to provide some kind of oversight for the sale of any Enron 
material assets. Likely bidders are Denmark's Vestas Wind Systems, 
German-Danish wind turbine maker Nordex AG, General Electric and some 
financial groups from Europe. Enron Wind will likely end up bought by 
the Europeans, who have a stronger presence in the wind energy 
sector. The top 5 wind turbine manufacturers are three Danish, one 
Spanish, and one German. Vestas plans to set up a blade and assembly 
plant in the US if the tax credit is extended, and NEG Micon already 
has an assembly plant here. More than 1,000 MW of projects have been 
put on hold in the US because the tax credit has yet to be renewed. 
About $5 billion of new wind power was installed worldwide last year, 
bringing the total over $20 billion. 
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-------------------------------------------------------------
Natural Gas NYMEX Volume
02FEB   37,198
02MAR   17,837
02APR    5,622
02MAY    2,416
02JUN    2,495
02JLY    9,143
02AUG    8,440
02SEP      975
02OCT    4,860
02NOV    1,882 
02DEC      953
03JAN    1,922
03FEB      447
03MAR      699
03APR      713
03MAY      215
03JUN      414
03JLY      161
03AUG      201
03SEP       15
03OCT       62
03NOV      395
03DEC      650
04JAN       93
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PanCanadian and Alberta Energy Merge
 
    PanCanadian Energy and Alberta Energy have reached an agreement 
to merge, forming one of the top independent oil and natural gas 
company in the world in terms of proved reserves, production and 
value. The share swap deal will create a C$27 billion exploration and 
production company with operations in the US, the North Sea and 
Ecuador and major Canadian-based operations. The newly merged company 
will be called EnCana Corporation. The top executives of each company 
plan to enhance the market value and prevent a takeover of either 
firm. Canadian energy companies have historically experienced a lower 
stock market value than US rivals in terms of multiples of projected 
cash flow per share, used to measure the value of companies. Some say 
that pension funds looking to invest in North America exploration 
would not have considered the companies before because they were too 
small, but the new company is large enough to attract institutional 
investors. It has been estimated that EnCana could eventually have a 
multiple of 7.75 to 8.75 times cash flow, suggesting a target price 
of C$44.50 to C$52.00. Competitors Anadarko and Burlington Resources 
currently trade at 9.7 times and 8.7 times respectively. As part of 
the deal, AEC stockholders will receive 1.472 PanCanadian shares for 
each of their shares, which values AEC at about C$9 billion. 
PanCanadian had been mentioned as a takeover target when it was spun 
off from Canadian Pacific last fall. The deal carries a C$350 million 
break up fee for either firm should it cause the merger to fall 
through.
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PHYSICAL POWER PRICES
|            | High  |  Low  | Average |
|            | $/MWh | $/MWh |  $/MWh  |
| Cinergy    | 18.60 | 16.00 |  17.75  |
| ECAR       | 22.00 | 16.00 |  19.20  |
| ERCOT      | 17.50 | 17.10 |  17.35  |
| Entergy    | 18.00 | 17.20 |  17.80  |
| TVA        | 19.90 | 19.45 |  19.85  |
| ComEd      | 20.00 | 19.25 |  19.65  |
| Nepool     | 28.00 | 27.00 |  27.55  |
| PJM West   | 22.50 | 21.00 |  21.50  |
| Main       | 22.00 | 21.00 |  21.50  |
| MAPP       | 22.00 | 19.00 |  20.00  |
| Palo Verde | 24.75 | 22.00 |  24.10  |
| Mid C      | 20.50 | 18.80 |  19.95  |
| COB        | 22.25 | 22.00 |  22.20  |
| 4 Corners  | 23.50 | 22.00 |  22.75  |
| Mead       | 27.00 | 23.25 |  25.05  |
| NP 15      | 25.00 | 23.50 |  24.40  |
| SP 15      | 25.25 | 23.75 |  24.60  |
            Power Delivered 1/29
-------------------------------------------------------------
Enron Collapse May Have Ripple Effect 
 

    The ripple effect caused by the collapse of Enron may have harmed 
securities across a broad range of asset classes. Revelations about 
Enron's murky financial statements have generally cast doubt on 
corporate accounting practices. Some say that the stock market now 
carries a higher equity risk premium because of Enron's collapse. In 
some cases, investors who lose money in one market unwound their 
exposure in others, leading to a spiral of forced selling. Even 
companies with no Enron exposure are experiencing investor risk 
aversion equal to those that had direct financial dealings with the 
company. For example, Kmart would likely not have been vulnerable to 
energy sector risks in the past. But Kmart claimed that insurers had 
raised premiums for surety bonds, which Kmart needed to cover certain 
contingent liabilities. Enron's collapse also worried investors about 
other energy companies, like Calpine, El Paso and Mirant, forcing 
them to adjust their balance sheets. The fallout from Enron likely 
led to a downturn in outstanding commercial and industrial loans over 
the past month. Another sign of potential contagion effects is a $266 
million outflow from high yield bond funds last week was attributed 
by to fears aroused by the Enron and Kmart bankruptcies. Each new 
Enron disclosure fuels fears that the economy is threatened by the 
fallout. And, whether actual contagion exists or not, fear of it 
seems to led many companies' to distance themselves from the energy 
trader.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Allegheny Energy Supply Company, Salt River Project (SRP) and Sempra 
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Resources announce Open Season for proposed Desert Crossing Gas 
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-------------------------------------------------------------
Todays Gas Bulletins
 * Senate Energy Committee Begins Hearings on Enron Collapse; 
Witnesses Scheduled Include FERC Chairman Pat Wood, CFTC Chairman 
James Newsome, NYMEX Head Vincent Viola
 * Moody's Investors Service Places Alberta Energy's Senior Unsecured 
Ratings Under Review for Possible Upgrade and `A3' Senior Unsecured 
Ratings of PanCanadian Under Review for Possible Downgrade
 * AGL Resources CEO Expects Georgia Legislature to Pass Bill to 
Reform State's 
Deregulated Natural Gas Market
 * Wife of Ex-Enron CEO Ken Lay Says Family Lost Fortune When Company 
Collapsed; Says Husband Has Done Absolutely Nothing Dishonest
 * JP Morgan Raises Dynegy Bonds to `Overweight' from `Neutral'
 * Anadarko Announces `Modeling' Conference Call February 6th
 * Morgan Stanley to Buy Ex-Texaco World Headquarters in Northern 
Suburb of New York City for Undisclosed Amount
------------------------------------------------------------
California PUC Urged to Shift Power Choice Date
  
    An administrative law judge to the California PUC has urged the 
regulators to amend a ruling that jettisoned the right of customers 
to choose their electricity provider. The ALJ says the ruling needed 
to be changed because it unfairly shifted almost $2 billion of costs 
to utility customers. To avoid penalizing the customers, the ALJ 
recommends that the PUC set July 1st as the cutoff date for energy 
users to sign new direct access contracts to buy electricity from 
independent companies. The CPUC voted last September to cancel the 
customer choice option as of that date. Without the change in dates, 
consumers who continued to take power from their local utility will 
be responsible for $1.98 billion. That is because from July 1st to 
September 20th last year, about 11% of the total electric service of 
the state's investor-owned utilities shifted from bundled service 
from the utilities to direct access service from other companies. 
About 10,000 businesses signed the new power deals last summer when 
wholesale electricity priced dropped, a move severely criticized by 
state consumer groups. However, the PUC reserved the option to shift 
the cutoff date back to July 1st if the Sept 20th date hurt customers 
who stayed with their utility.
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-------------------------------------------------------------
California PUC Urged to Shift Power Choice Date
  
    An administrative law judge to the California PUC has urged the 
regulators to amend a ruling that jettisoned the right of customers 
to choose their electricity provider. The ALJ says the ruling needed 
to be changed because it unfairly shifted almost $2 billion of costs 
to utility customers. To avoid penalizing the customers, the ALJ 
recommends that the PUC set July 1st as the cutoff date for energy 
users to sign new direct access contracts to buy electricity from 
independent companies. The CPUC voted last September to cancel the 
customer choice option as of that date. Without the change in dates, 
consumers who continued to take power from their local utility will 
be responsible for $1.98 billion. That is because from July 1st to 
September 20th last year, about 11% of the total electric service of 
the state's investor-owned utilities shifted from bundled service 
from the utilities to direct access service from other companies. 
About 10,000 businesses signed the new power deals last summer when 
wholesale electricity priced dropped, a move severely criticized by 
state consumer groups. However, the PUC reserved the option to shift 
the cutoff date back to July 1st if the Sept 20th date hurt customers 
who stayed with their utility.
-------------------------------------------------------------
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-------------------------------------------------------------
POWER FUTURES ?
| Month |   COB   | Change |   PV    | Change |
| FEB   |  21.25  | +0.00  |  21.25  | -0.85  |
| MAR   |  18.50  | +0.00  |  21.00  | -0.75  |
| APR   |  20.00  | +0.00  |  22.25  | -1.00  |
| MAY   |  18.25  | +0.00  |  23.25  | -0.75  |
| JUN   |  20.00  | +0.00  |  27.75  | -0.75  |
| JUL   |  29.50  | +0.00  |  37.75  | +0.00  |
| AUG   |  40.00  | +0.00  |  42.50  | -0.75  |
| SEP   |  34.00  | +0.00  |  32.25  | -0.50  |
| OCT   |  28.00  | +0.00  |  27.75  | +0.00  |
| NOV   |  27.50  | +0.00  |  26.25  | -0.50  |
| DEC   |  28.50  | +0.00  |  26.75  | -0.50  |
| JAN   |  28.50  | +0.00  |  28.25  | +0.00  |
| Month | Entergy | Change | Cinergy | Change |
| FEB   |  18.25  | -0.05  |  19.70  | +0.00  |
| MAR   |  19.25  | -0.15  |  20.85  | +0.05  |
| APR   |  19.25  | -0.15  |  20.85  | +0.05  |
| MAY   |  22.60  | +0.10  |  24.25  | +0.25  |
| JUN   |  26.75  | +0.35  |  29.00  | +0.30  |
| JUL   |  33.50  | +0.25  |  37.25  | +0.00  |
| AUG   |  33.50  | +0.25  |  37.25  | +0.00  |
| SEP   |  26.00  | +0.00  |  22.30  | +0.05  |
| OCT   |  21.35  | +0.00  |  21.85  | -0.05  |
| NOV   |  21.35  | +0.00  |  21.85  | -0.25  |
| DEC   |  21.35  | +0.00  |  21.85  | -0.25  |
| JAN   |  24.25  | +0.25  |  25.25  | +0.25  |
-------------------------------------------------------------
Power Futures     
| Month |  PJM  | Change |
| FEB   | 23.50 | -0.25  |
| MAR   | 24.05 | +0.00  |
| APR   | 24.05 | +0.00  |
| MAY   | 27.25 | +0.50  |
| JUN   | 33.25 | +0.25  |
| JUL   | 44.50 | +0.10  |
| AUG   | 44.50 | +0.10  |
| SEP   | 25.50 | +0.20  |
| OCT   | 25.00 | +0.05  |
| NOV   | 25.00 | +0.05  |
| DEC   | 25.00 | +0.05  |
| JAN   | 29.00 | +0.50  |
-------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET OUTLOOK

 Hold on to the short position in the March natural gas futures. The 
GasTrader model is still in a bearish mode and continues to stay 
short, although no new trades are recommended. Prices continue in a 
pervasive downtrend, yet stop loss provisions are in place to guard 
against any unexpected price rallies.  The massive short interest 
held by non commercial accounts is of concern, but the stop loss 
provisions of the model are designed to cope with what economists 
call "exogenous variables". Weather, storage, and the economy are all 
negative, and combined with the unfavorable technical environment 
suggest that prices could work  still lower. GasTrader Consultant is 
a natural gas futures trading program designed to minimize the 
opportunity costs (losses) that often result under the best 
intentioned but often misguided hedging programs. Specific trading 
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maintained in the spot (most liquid) futures contract and are rolled 
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program is in a long mode producers and physical market longs would 
lift all hedges.  Conversely if the program is in a short mode end 
users would lift their hedges. If the model is flat or neutral, a 
conservative strategy requires hedging by both long and short market 
participants.  It is believed that by combining natural gas price 
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-------------------------------------------------------------
Energy Seminars, Inc. Announces Key Seminar Offerings for January:

Energy Seminars will be going to Florida and Calgary in 2002!

Click to http://www.energyseminars.com to see our 2002 schedule.

Register on-line at http://www.energyseminars.com or call Registrar 
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Phone: 281-362-7979
FAX: 281-296-9922
----------------------------------------------------------------------
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-------------------------------------------------------------
FINANCIAL SUMMARY
The TSE 300 lost 15.56 points to 7643.73
The CRB Index fell 1.98 points to 187.87
The US Dollar increased 0.02 points to 119.87
The Dow advanced 25.67 points to 9865.75
The S&P 500 dipped 0.22 points to 1133.06
The Nasdaq was up 6.21 points to 1943.91
March NYMEX Crude Oil climbed 0.06 to 20.05
Canadian-US Exchange rose 0.0046 to 1.6125
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