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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Thursday, Jan 31, 2002 at 08:58AM EST    Commentary last updated: Thursday, Jan 31, 2002 at 09:07AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote     Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS  or Aquila    New! >> Printable PDF Trader Summary  (You must have Adobe Acrobat Reader  to open or print a PDF)   Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'      Today: Thursday, January 31, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 51 +2 ERCOT(SP) 61 +2 FRCC(SE) 82 NC MAAC(NE) 51 +2 MAIN(CTR) 35 +2 MAPP(HP) 24 +2 NPCC(NE) 29 +3 SERC(SE) 74 +1 SPP(SP) 37 +2 WSCC(NW) 37 -1 WSCC(RK) 24 -1 WSCC(SW) 48 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 22 36 34 17 70 55 42 Max 42 27 40 37 23 74 65 48 Min 32 20 27 31 12 68 47 38 Range 10 7 13 6 11 6 18 10 StD-P 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.0 3.3 2.0 3.5 2.5 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:   The Great Lakes and New England see the full effects of a winter storm. Colder air settling South and East over the next several days as storms remain active.  It is a very active weather map with extremes on it. For example, Tucson, AZ saw snow yesterday, Kansas City Ice, Chicago has seen almost a foot of snow the last 24 hours and Washington DC was around 80 degrees yesterday. This storm has been a slow mover, but should start to accelerate to the Northeast today. The next system in the short term is a quick clipper system coming through the Great Lakes and heading out to sea. It may rapidly intensify off the coast late in the period, but probably too far offshore for any real problems. The air behind all of this is cold, but not arctic. Even though the five day numbers remain below normal in the West and ! above in the East due to current extremes, the overall pattern will be relaxing for a few days allowing many areas to gravitate to close to seasonal norms this weekend.    Tomorrow: Friday, February  1, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 41 +2 ERCOT(SP) 51 -1 FRCC(SE) 81 NC MAAC(NE) 65 +5 MAIN(CTR) 32 +2 MAPP(HP) 24 -1 NPCC(NE) 41 +4 SERC(SE) 63 +1 SPP(SP) 41 +1 WSCC(NW) 39 NC WSCC(RK) 31 +1 WSCC(SW) 51 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 26 44 36 23 66 46 47 Max 37 35 50 40 31 74 54 52 Min 26 21 36 32 16 62 40 42 Range 11 14 14 8 15 12 14 10 StD-P 2.5 3.2 3.3 2.0 3.5 3.0 3.7 2.3 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Saturday, February  2, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 34 +1 ERCOT(SP) 52 -2 FRCC(SE) 74 NC MAAC(NE) 38 NC MAIN(CTR) 31 NC MAPP(HP) 29 NC NPCC(NE) 26 -1 SERC(SE) 52 NC SPP(SP) 44 +1 WSCC(NW) 40 NC WSCC(RK) 33 -1 WSCC(SW) 55 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 30 28 37 26 54 48 50 Max 31 34 47 41 33 67 51 55 Min 24 27 20 34 17 47 42 46 Range 7 7 27 7 16 20 9 9 StD-P 1.9 2.1 6.9 2.1 4.1 5.2 2.4 2.2 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 4: Sunday, February  3, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 35 NC ERCOT(SP) 57 -2 FRCC(SE) 72 -1 MAAC(NE) 37 NC MAIN(CTR) 33 NC MAPP(HP) 28 -1 NPCC(NE) 25 NC SERC(SE) 52 -2 SPP(SP) 49 +2 WSCC(NW) 42 NC WSCC(RK) 37 +1 WSCC(SW) 57 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 31 26 38 29 53 51 52 Max 32 36 32 42 38 57 55 57 Min 28 27 19 34 24 47 46 48 Range 4 9 13 8 14 10 9 9 StD-P 1.0 2.9 2.9 2.7 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.3 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 5: Monday, February  4, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 33 -1 ERCOT(SP) 57 -4 FRCC(SE) 68 -3 MAAC(NE) 39 -1 MAIN(CTR) 32 +1 MAPP(HP) 28 +2 NPCC(NE) 27 -2 SERC(SE) 53 -1 SPP(SP) 49 +5 WSCC(NW) 40 -2 WSCC(RK) 34 NC WSCC(SW) 58 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 29 32 27 39 28 51 52 54 Max 31 36 31 43 37 56 57 58 Min 26 30 22 33 19 45 48 49 Range 5 6 9 10 18 11 9 9 StD-P 1.5 2.0 2.0 3.8 5.9 3.5 2.8 2.2 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:  More active weather is expected in the 6-10 day period. Winter storm enthusiasts may see a couple of major storms the first two weeks of February if the MRF is correct. These will likely track farther to the South and East than recent storms opening up the East coast to some potential snow and ice. The Canadian once again hints at a real cold surface high coming down next weekend. It does not show up in the others, but the overall pattern would be supportive of a colder pattern. I don't see the numbers more than a few degrees below normal. The main story could be the storms rather than the cold if the models verify.     Day 6: Tuesday, February  5, 2002  Click Here  for Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information.  Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 34 +2 ERCOT(SP) 58 -1 FRCC(SE) 70 -1 MAAC(NE) 37 +1 MAIN(CTR) 31 NC MAPP(HP) 28 +1 NPCC(NE) 27 -1 SERC(SE) 49 -2 SPP(SP) 42 -2 WSCC(NW) 42 -1 WSCC(RK) 37 -1 WSCC(SW) 58 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 31 26 40 31 51 50 54 Max 32 36 31 44 38 55 57 59 Min 28 25 20 35 25 45 44 50 Range 4 11 11 9 13 10 13 9 StD-P 1.1 2.8 3.8 2.9 4.2 3.1 3.9 2.8 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Wednesday, February  6, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 35 +2 ERCOT(SP) 59 -4 FRCC(SE) 68 NC MAAC(NE) 38 +1 MAIN(CTR) 35 +3 MAPP(HP) 31 +3 NPCC(NE) 29 NC SERC(SE) 49 -5 SPP(SP) 48 -1 WSCC(NW) 42 NC WSCC(RK) 39 +1 WSCC(SW) 59 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 34 28 39 34 50 49 54 Max 33 37 32 43 41 54 56 59 Min 29 30 21 32 26 46 41 51 Range 4 7 11 11 15 8 15 8 StD-P 1.1 1.9 3.7 3.2 4.6 2.8 4.8 3.1 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 8: Thursday, February  7, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 30 -4 ERCOT(SP) 52 -10 FRCC(SE) 55 -6 MAAC(NE) 30 NC MAIN(CTR) 33 -1 MAPP(HP) 30 +3 NPCC(NE) 20 +3 SERC(SE) 42 -7 SPP(SP) 42 -1 WSCC(NW) 35 +2 WSCC(RK) 28 +7 WSCC(SW) 53 +6     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 32 34 30 38 34 50 53 54 Max 35 39 33 43 42 57 60 60 Min 31 30 22 33 24 45 47 49 Range 4 9 11 10 18 12 13 11 StD-P 0.9 2.9 3.4 2.9 5.1 4.4 4.1 3.8 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Friday, February  8, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 30 -5 ERCOT(SP) 55 -4 FRCC(SE) 58 -9 MAAC(NE) 33 -7 MAIN(CTR) 31 +3 MAPP(HP) 32 +8 NPCC(NE) 26 -6 SERC(SE) 44 -11 SPP(SP) 49 +12 WSCC(NW) 33 -6 WSCC(RK) 27 +2 WSCC(SW) 52 +3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 32 34 32 37 31 52 55 52 Max 35 37 35 43 40 58 59 60 Min 28 31 28 33 25 47 49 44 Range 7 6 7 10 15 11 10 16 StD-P 1.8 2.0 2.3 3.0 4.0 3.9 2.3 4.3 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 10: Saturday, February  9, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 32 -8 ERCOT(SP) 60 +8 FRCC(SE) 64 -6 MAAC(NE) 30 -12 MAIN(CTR) 37 +8 MAPP(HP) 30 +1 NPCC(NE) 24 -2 SERC(SE) 48 -9 SPP(SP) 44 +4 WSCC(NW) 36 NC WSCC(RK) 18 -7 WSCC(SW) 50 -6     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 32 27 26 31 20 49 50 43 Max 34 33 31 36 28 52 56 55 Min 28 23 22 24 18 46 43 34 Range 6 10 9 12 10 6 13 21 StD-P 2.6 3.2 1.7 4.8 2.8 2.1 4.2 8.1 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]