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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Tuesday, Jan 08, 2002 at 07:39AM EST    Commentary last updated: Tuesday, Jan 08, 2002 at 10:11AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote     Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS  or Aquila    New! >> Printable PDF Trader Summary  (You must have Adobe Acrobat Reader  to open or print a PDF)   Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'      Today: Tuesday, January  8, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 35 NC ERCOT(SP) 67 +1 FRCC(SE) 56 NC MAAC(NE) 36 +1 MAIN(CTR) 44 +1 MAPP(HP) 49 +3 NPCC(NE) 29 +1 SERC(SE) 48 NC SPP(SP) 64 +4 WSCC(NW) 49 +3 WSCC(RK) 53 +3 WSCC(SW) 64 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 38 49 28 45 42 45 59 59 Max 42 60 34 49 53 52 69 64 Min 35 43 24 42 35 41 52 55 Range 7 17 10 7 18 11 17 9 StD-P 2.6 5.8 2.5 2.2 5.4 3.1 4.9 2.7 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:   Thaw underway for the short term. Longer range models continue to insist (as I continue to resist) that real arctic air arrives later in the month.  There is some potential for yet another winter storm in the East late in the five day period. The point in question is how much cold air is available or is it just another cold rain for many folks. That will be answered later in the week. The overall pattern definitely looks warmer for now though some of this energy goes into melting snow cover rather than warming the air. The absence of snow in the Plains is one reason why they are so much warmer relative to normal than areas farther East. But, most of the country goes warmer than normal before the end of the week. The last to catch on to this trend is the Southeast.      Tomorrow: Wednesday, January  9, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 45 +2 ERCOT(SP) 73 +1 FRCC(SE) 62 NC MAAC(NE) 42 -2 MAIN(CTR) 51 +3 MAPP(HP) 45 +2 NPCC(NE) 36 -1 SERC(SE) 58 +2 SPP(SP) 63 +2 WSCC(NW) 44 -1 WSCC(RK) 42 -1 WSCC(SW) 63 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 43 45 36 42 39 54 65 58 Max 48 59 41 49 52 63 75 64 Min 39 38 32 39 32 50 58 53 Range 9 21 9 10 20 13 17 11 StD-P 2.3 5.8 2.2 2.8 5.5 3.0 3.7 3.3 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Thursday, January 10, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 44 +1 ERCOT(SP) 64 -1 FRCC(SE) 70 NC MAAC(NE) 51 +4 MAIN(CTR) 39 NC MAPP(HP) 35 NC NPCC(NE) 43 +4 SERC(SE) 60 NC SPP(SP) 49 -3 WSCC(NW) 43 NC WSCC(RK) 37 -5 WSCC(SW) 62 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 39 38 40 41 30 58 59 57 Max 47 49 45 46 43 62 69 62 Min 35 33 36 37 19 57 54 52 Range 12 16 9 9 24 5 15 10 StD-P 2.9 4.7 1.7 2.1 6.1 1.3 3.9 3.1 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 4: Friday, January 11, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 37 +1 ERCOT(SP) 60 -1 FRCC(SE) 70 NC MAAC(NE) 42 +1 MAIN(CTR) 35 +1 MAPP(HP) 32 -2 NPCC(NE) 36 +4 SERC(SE) 51 -3 SPP(SP) 48 -3 WSCC(NW) 45 +1 WSCC(RK) 41 -1 WSCC(SW) 62 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 37 37 43 32 55 51 58 Max 39 41 44 45 41 63 61 62 Min 32 34 33 39 23 52 42 54 Range 7 7 11 6 18 11 19 8 StD-P 2.0 2.5 3.1 1.4 5.1 2.9 5.8 2.4 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 5: Saturday, January 12, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 36 -1 ERCOT(SP) 62 -1 FRCC(SE) 61 -4 MAAC(NE) 39 +1 MAIN(CTR) 37 NC MAPP(HP) 38 -1 NPCC(NE) 32 +2 SERC(SE) 49 -2 SPP(SP) 51 -2 WSCC(NW) 42 -2 WSCC(RK) 44 +1 WSCC(SW) 61 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 39 32 42 37 48 51 57 Max 36 45 39 44 43 58 59 62 Min 32 36 29 39 30 43 42 53 Range 4 9 10 5 13 15 17 9 StD-P 1.2 2.6 3.0 1.8 3.4 4.1 4.8 2.6 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:  I am not as bullish as the charts (and some forecasters) in regards to cold air developing in the medium range period and beyond. I am not saying next week and the week after will not be colder than this week, they likely will be. But, I continue to have questions as to intensity and Southern extent of whatever develops. First, we have yet to see any real polar flow so far this winter. Second, lack of deep snow cover in the Northern U.S. tends to inhibit bitter cold. Third, and perhaps most important to me is the lack of high surface pressures developing over Canada. Now, they may develop eventually, but I want to see it first. Finally, most models have more of a West to East configuration at the jet stream level rather than a NW to SE orientation straight out of the arctic. Given these conditions and recent history I! am just not ready yet to pronounce any major cold developing. In fact, I would expect the Gulf Coast and SE to actually run warmer than normal through the 20'th of the month. The Plains, Lakes and NE probably go back to below normal levels, but not excessively so. It looks comparable to the past couple of weeks. The West is expected to take on a temperature profile that closely resembles normal Mid-January levels.     Day 6: Sunday, January 13, 2002  Click Here  for Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information.  Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 40 +5 ERCOT(SP) 65 +2 FRCC(SE) 62 -5 MAAC(NE) 42 +1 MAIN(CTR) 38 +7 MAPP(HP) 35 +7 NPCC(NE) 34 +1 SERC(SE) 53 -3 SPP(SP) 53 +3 WSCC(NW) 37 -4 WSCC(RK) 36 -2 WSCC(SW) 58 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 36 39 32 36 34 48 54 55 Max 37 44 37 44 42 54 62 62 Min 34 35 28 28 23 44 50 49 Range 3 9 9 16 19 10 12 13 StD-P 1.0 2.4 2.3 3.9 6.0 3.7 3.4 3.5 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Monday, January 14, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 40 +6 ERCOT(SP) 64 +1 FRCC(SE) 70 +2 MAAC(NE) 45 +6 MAIN(CTR) 36 +6 MAPP(HP) 27 +3 NPCC(NE) 37 +6 SERC(SE) 57 +3 SPP(SP) 50 +2 WSCC(NW) 36 -5 WSCC(RK) 31 -4 WSCC(SW) 56 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 30 37 33 30 53 57 53 Max 38 42 39 41 42 59 63 61 Min 32 20 34 26 21 50 52 46 Range 6 22 5 15 21 9 11 15 StD-P 1.9 5.3 1.8 4.2 6.4 2.0 3.5 4.0 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 8: Tuesday, January 15, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 33 +5 ERCOT(SP) 63 +2 FRCC(SE) 62 -3 MAAC(NE) 37 +11 MAIN(CTR) 29 -2 MAPP(HP) 23 -1 NPCC(NE) 34 +19 SERC(SE) 50 -1 SPP(SP) 54 +5 WSCC(NW) 20 -9 WSCC(RK) 20 -8 WSCC(SW) 42 -5     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 27 37 31 30 55 58 50 Max 35 33 41 38 35 59 61 58 Min 27 21 35 20 23 52 53 42 Range 8 12 6 18 12 7 8 16 StD-P 2.0 2.6 1.4 5.9 3.8 2.5 3.2 4.4 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Wednesday, January 16, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 43 +8 ERCOT(SP) 68 +5 FRCC(SE) 64 -4 MAAC(NE) 39 +4 MAIN(CTR) 41 +6 MAPP(HP) 22 -6 NPCC(NE) 29 +16 SERC(SE) 54 -2 SPP(SP) 56 +3 WSCC(NW) 20 -6 WSCC(RK) 13 -8 WSCC(SW) 40 -4     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 29 25 33 29 27 54 59 47 Max 37 28 37 37 35 58 66 56 Min 21 17 29 20 15 47 51 40 Range 16 11 8 17 20 11 15 16 StD-P 4.2 3.3 2.2 6.0 7.4 2.6 3.6 4.7 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 10: Thursday, January 17, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 39 -1 ERCOT(SP) 63 +3 FRCC(SE) 66 -2 MAAC(NE) 47 +2 MAIN(CTR) 24 -13 MAPP(HP) 15 -5 NPCC(NE) 40 +11 SERC(SE) 60 +3 SPP(SP) 35 -8 WSCC(NW) 25 -4 WSCC(RK) 13 NC WSCC(SW) 39 -5     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 24 21 29 26 20 52 55 39 Max 27 28 42 28 26 61 58 45 Min 20 16 15 25 13 42 49 37 Range 7 12 27 3 13 19 9 8 StD-P 2.5 4.5 8.7 1.1 4.7 6.1 3.2 1.9 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]