I have no major changes, but Arctic air mass plunging into Plains now on
short range models.

Overall, the progression of ideas from last week look to hold true for this
week and beyond. The very cold weather will probably be a bit more expansive
by the end of the week than I had originally planned for, which means colder
for Texas, the Tennessee Valley, the Midwest and Ohio Valley later this
week. The deep Southeast and along the East coast it will turn colder later
this week but the coldest of air will not reach those areas.

Snow and ice will probably reach as far south as Oklahoma City in the Plains
and western PJM in the East during mid to late week. Houston may have
trouble getting out of the 40s for highs Thursday as compared to near 80
degree temps currently. A large area of snowcover will become established
over the next 5-10 days over the northern and central U.S.

I continue to believe the models look too warm in the long range, especially
in Canada. Once Canada gets cold at this time of year, it will likely stay
very cold. This will set the stage for additional cold air to spread across
the United States east of the Rockies in the long range.

Bottom line - true Winter is about to begin, the bear show is over.

Dave

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