hey man no problem.i know youre a busy man.its getting ahrder to say how to
play this thing. sprds are massive contango-minimal inverses in the winter.
indeed there shudnt be any problems to supply gas this winter but suply
growth hasnt been stellar and prob wont rise from here now.im not a raging
bull but the past couple of aga and the cashs trength. and the mkt
structure(no sellers in the forward), leads me to beleive there cud be more
upside. mkt is prob a range mkt for a time. but overall i think this is a
weather bet. if we have a winter it will suport the whole curve if its warm
i will be awful-stay in that 2.00-2.50 rnage for spot prices.
   i think the prompt is out of the woods-if so long as we have normal
weather nov cash will be ok -wont trade lower than oct cash as long as we
have big incentive to roll storage mar/apr? i bailed. basically washed. in
the long term its prob ok but they arent gonna let me make any serious money
on it in the next few weeks prob longer so why have it on esp when this
winter is such a big discount to next-i guess theres some risk h/j moves
higher if they y on y sprds come in much?? not sure so i bailed. i dont
disagree with you on the calender sprds but i just dont think the entry pt
is attractive. about the only thing im running is nov long agaisnt dec and
jan shorts. pretty netrual no big bets on for now-first time in a awhile.
nothing is that obvious to me. if mktstays sort of balanced until end dec i
mite take a shot on the long side late dec early jan. i struggle paying
sucha  big premium for the forward curve

-----Original Message-----
From: John.Arnold@enron.com [mailto:John.Arnold@enron.com]
Sent: Monday, October 08, 2001 7:58 PM
To: LaFontaine, Steve
Subject: RE: wheres the love?


Sorry,sorry, sorry.
Havent had internet access at home for past 5 weeks.  Much easier to write
these at home as when I'm done trading I don't want to look at my computer.
For november, very neutral.  Cash is impressive.  Agree shutins, switching,
and some weather are making market look more like equilibrium.  Think with
cash/futures at 20 cents, x/z looks crazy.  As soon as z becomes prompt,
the fear factor/risk premium of it will decrease and the whole winter will
come off.  Like your h/j trade.  Hard to see it really being worth 9 cents
at settlement.  Been buying a lot of y/y cantango as I think next summer
will be a piece but longer term gas story still very real and customers
know it.  Wouldnt be surprised to see 2/3 go to 50+.  I think x has some
room to go up, but not a lot.  Dont want to play the market from the long
side as been burned before trying to get long a market that is still in a
downtrend.  Seems like the curve will just keep rolling down with each
expiry.  All the winter months might settle 2.25.  As such, the best thing
to be short is jan.

    -----Original Message-----
   From:   "Lafontaine, Steve" <steve.lafontaine@bankofamerica.com>@ENRON

[mailto:IMCEANOTES-+22Lafontaine+2C+20Steve+22+20+3Csteve+2Elafontaine+40ban
kofamerica+2Ecom+3E+40ENRON@ENRON.com]


   Sent:   Friday, October 05, 2001 12:32 PM
   To:     Lafontaine, Steve; jarnold@enron.com
   Subject:  RE: wheres the love?


   well the mkts changed a bit since this writing. im more neturalish now i
   guess. suprised about the cash strongth. and i guess it doesnt mattr CUZ
   YOU
   DONT ANSWER YOUR EMAILS ANYWAY.
   regards
   >  -----Original Message-----
   > From:      LaFontaine, Steve
   > Sent:      Friday, September 21, 2001 4:40 PM
   > To:   John Arnold (E-mail)
   > Subject:   whats up young man?
   >
   > johnny hope all is well. is ok here. new york a little stranger than
   > normal for obvious reasons.. wwe're trying to get back to normal.
   pretty
   > stressful cupla weeks. business has been pretty good(trading anyway)
   in
   > natgas and oil. certainly have been some changes in natgas
   fundamentals
   > but too littl too late im afraid to get bullish . market sucks and the
   > newest shock to macr economics im starting to think are mitigating
   what
   > mite have been some postive bullish changes like gas/oil relationship
   and
   > gas shut ins. looks shitty i think. im not as short as ive been but
   > starting to think this witer is waaay too high priced. just funtction
   > timing i guess. i sold a few march aprils again. just doesnt fit the
   curve
   > and i think 80% probabitly we end march with over 1.3 tcf in the
   ground.
   > wud keep things ugle for awhile.
   >   anyway curious your thots as always. also wanted to say hi.have a
   good
   > weekend



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