WELCOME - Vol. 6 No. 44

TIMELY INVESTMENT INFORMATION - Weekly Economic Update
======================================================

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WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: November 17, 2001

Prior Week in Review:

Financial Market Highlights:
============================

                        11/16/01     11/09/01     %Change

S&P 500                 1,138.65     1,120.31      +1.64%
Dow Jones               9,866.99     9,608.00      +2.70%
NASD Comp               1,898.58     1,828.48      +3.83%
Russell 2000              451.31       438.10      +3.02%
SOX Index                 529.92       506.81      +4.56%
Value Line                350.48       339.37      +3.27%
MS Growth                 552.08       543.40      +1.60%
MS Cyclical               518.64       493.85      +5.02%
T - Bill                    1.89%        1.80%      +9 BP
Long Bond                   5.30%        4.88%     +42 BP
Gold - Oz-Near Month     $274.90      $277.70      -$2.80
Silver - Oz-Near Month     $4.10        $4.08       +$.02


Economic News:
==============

Good Economic News Last Week - Retail Sales Strong
 Jobless Claims Continue To Improve - Still Some Negatives
 Best Bet Still For Recovery To Be Underway By Spring


*Richmond FRB Shipments Index -8 in Oct from 3 in Sept.
*October Retail Sales rose a record +7.1% - Led by Autos
 Sales up +1.0% even without autos - Strong gain
*Jobless Claims fell -8,000 to 444,000 - Four Week
 Moving Average fell -13,000 to 474,750
*Sept. Business Inventories fell -.5% - Sales fell -2.8%
 Inventory/Sales ratio edges up to 1.45 months from 1.42
*Philadelphia FRB Survey for October -20.2 - Up from -27.4
*Industrial Production in Oct fell -1.1% - Capacity
 Utilization down to 74.8% from Sept. level of 75.7%
*October Consumer Prices down -.3% - Core Rate - Without
 Volatile Food & Energy Costs - rose +.2% - As expected


Longer term readers know that we have long believed that
given the wherewithal and the confidence, the American
consumer will spend.  Lately the confidence factor has
been shaken somewhat, but now appears to be stabilizing.
And even though the labor markets have weakened, income
growth is still good.  So, the consumer did what we
hoped for, and to a lessened extent expected - they spent,
big time, in October.

We knew the overall retail sales number would be big, as
in a prior newsletter we had pointed out the incredible
annualized rate of auto sales driven by 0% financing.  And,
of course, auto sales are a big part of overall retail
sales.  What we didn't know, but were impressed by, was
the solid gain in retail sales ex autos.

The important point here is simply that going into the
all important holiday selling season consumers were
willing to spend at a pretty good clip.  This has
nothing to do with cheap financing, and bodes well
for fourth quarter retail sales - an important driver
of two thirds of economic activity.

The downside to the October burst of auto sales, and
the announced plans to continue cheap financing through
year end, is simply that sales are being "stolen" from
early next year.  At some point, it would seem relatively
obvious that production will have to slow, which would
slow a recovery, or stretch out the time frame of a
period of sub par growth.  But, at the moment, our
preference is for the recession not to deepen, rather
than worry too much about the slope of the recovery.

The jobless claims number has also continued to improve.
We are not trying to make the case that unemployment
won't go up, it will.  But, the pace of new layoffs is at
least not accelerating, and could be stabilizing.  So,
another bit of good news.

There was also a very significant, at least in my opinion,
bit of news that was a page one story for Investors
Business Daily - to their credit.  The headline was:
"Greenspan Is Upbeat on Productivity, Sees Best Of Tech
Boom Still Ahead". Greenspan also talked about energy, and
the need for more nuclear power, but my immediate focus
is the productivity issue.

Again, longer term readers know that we were very pleased
with recent productivity data, and thought that as a
recovery unfolds, productivity growth should move up. But,
Chairman Greenspan's views are what count - and for the
moment it doesn't much matter whether he is right.  What
matters is what Chairman Greenspan believes and the policy
implications. The news is good.

Simply put, given his belief that productivity growth will
accelerate, the FOMC will be much less likely to raise rates
sharply as the recovery begins to gain strength - say the
middle of next year.  This is not to say they won't raise rates,
but it does seem likely that they won't be aggressive to the
upside as they have been to the downside.  Good news for
investors - at least in the intermediate term.

For it to be good news longer term, Chairman Greenspan
has to be right and productivity growth must accelerate to
allay our concern about a potential buildup of inflationary
pressures as the recovery strengthens.

At the moment, we will be content with a recovery taking hold
this Spring.  It still seems like the best bet given the
powerful monetary stimulus already in place, sharply falling
energy prices (i.e. the equivalent of a modest tax cut), and
fiscal stimulus.  We like the odds.  Stay tuned !



Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================


Monday:   Housing Starts, Leading Indicators
Tuesday:        International Trade
Wednesday:      Jobless Claims, Univ. of Michigan
                 Consumer Sentiment
Thursday:       THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY - MARKETS CLOSED
Friday:         FOMC Minutes



Fresh Money Buys:
=================

In response to subscriber feedback, we have established this
section to highlight recommendations from our list that we
believe are the most attractively priced currently.  We will
limit the selections to three each week, even as our list of
recommendations changes.

American Int'l Group (AIG)                     $81.12
Emerson Electric (EMR)                         $52.89
Fannie Mae (FNM)                               $81.11


Original reports from the time of recommendation, are
         available on our Website at:

    http://www.stockresearch.com/archive.html


We will not track the performance of this list as we are
already monitoring the original recommendations.  Hope
this helps.

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