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Market  Insight for February 4, 2002	
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 [IMAGE]   Economic Recovery to the Rescue By Arnie Kaufman, Editor, The Outlook 	


Stay with a positive investment approach. 	
 Corporate  accounting and earnings quality issues, high P/Es and fear of additional terrorism remain a drag on the market. Another  restraint: Dynamic leadership is absent and may not be seen until signs  of improvement in information technology spending breathe new life into  that deeply depressed sector.  But  barring dramatic new financial irregularity disclosures, the chances  are good the market will soon start moving forward again. The driving  force, we believe, will be an improving economy.  S&P  chief economist David Wyss feels that if inventory rebuilding accelerates  sharply in the period just ahead, it is possible the first quarter will  show strong GDP growth and the second quarter a relapse into negative  territory. He points out that the 1990-91 recession was the only one  since the 1950s that did not have a positive quarter sandwiched between  down quarters. Wyss thinks the more likely scenario, however, is a smoother  pace of inventory accumulation and rising quarter-to-quarter GDP growth  through 2002. This forecast implies upward-trending earnings this year  and next.  Investors,  burned badly by the 2000-2001 bear market, are in a show-me state of  mind. Short sellers and others who bet stocks will fall have become  bolder lately, and institutions have been moving cautiously. All of  this suggests that a good deal of fuel for an advance exists.   It  wasn't a good omen that the S&P 500 index slipped in January, losing  1.6%. As mentioned a week ago, of the 19 times in the postwar period  that the "500" has fallen in January, the index then went  on to score a gain for the full year only seven times and suffered a  loss for the year 12 times. That was against a backdrop of 2.4 up years  for each down year for the 56 years from 1946 through 2001.   On  the other hand, a decline in the S&P 500 this year would be the  third in a row, and that hasn't happened since 1941.	


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