Agree.  Still not at supply/demand equilibrium.  Unfortunately, market lacks a catalyst for sharp move down from here until bid week.  i think continue to see slow erosion.  think we are slowly running out of places to put gas.  discretionary storage guys have their belly full.  can see cash/futures just keep widening from here.  q/v spread, even though it widens every day, still has a long way to go.  think you get to V and there is nowhere to put the gas.  could see v/x going to 30+.  i buy every cantango spread i can.  when market moves up the winter goes 1 for 1, when the market goes down you make money.  strongest product in the gas market are nymex futures.  everything else is a bloodbath.  socal basis has gone from $10 to $4 in the past month.  canadian storage balances are ridiculous.  imports are going to blow away last year.   new lng coming in late novy.  rig count is like open interest, a straight line up.  gas is behaving very price inelastic, just like it did on the move from $3 to $5 last year.  see little hope.  
h/j is the craziest spread on the board.  it is not a fundamentally priced spread though.  for several reasons, the industry uses that spread primarily to link the front of the board to the back.  think the front will keep drifting lower and the back will find some customer buy support as we get cal 2 down to 3.75 ish.  thus, h/j has to come in...i think.  plus i have the fundamentals on my side.


 -----Original Message-----
From: 	"Lafontaine, Steve" <steve.lafontaine@bankofamerica.com>@ENRON [mailto:IMCEANOTES-+22Lafontaine+2C+20Steve+22+20+3Csteve+2Elafontaine+40bankofamerica+2Ecom+3E+40ENRON@ENRON.com] 
Sent:	Wednesday, June 06, 2001 5:33 PM
To:	jarnold@enron.com
Subject:	this mkt still sucks

not much change for me john-i dont see much hope from the bull side. a hot
summer at this pt only delays my bearishness further. its 3.1 tcf most
bullish end oct or 3.4 if we're not hot for the rest of summer. either way
says its all too high priced.
   now what the hell is up w/bo buying those H/J?? to me this one is looking
a little like the aug/oct(remember how stupid that was at +5 cts. h/j maybe
not that redicuous but almost. at what pt will the mkt/world give up on the
winter strip and h/j gets back to a more reasonalbe 15 cts like jan/feb and
feb/mar?
   mkt seems to be treating you well. still pluggin along here. so far so
good. but im pretty much unwavering in my bearish conviction-think its still
down and maybe below 3 bucks and much more-always the problem of how much
wip you have to take in the short term.
    our cust stuff on the buy side has finally cooled off as all those guys
hedged over 5.00. industrial sectors still suffering from bad bad margins as
the chemical biz sucks due to imports,ammonia  and metals biz sucks.resid
prices will help a little but if we have 2 bcf/day more supply y on y then
there is no hope.
be cool-regards,
number 212-836-5030