Weather Headlines
Wednesday January 23, 2002
Record warm temperatures may develop over much of the East this period
while a few cold records could be set in the West. Highly energetic pattern
continues into the medium range period.
The short term temperature forecast looks very straight-forward. A broad
ridge off the Atlantic Coast and the subsequent SW flow of air into the
Eastern half of the country assures a continuation of unusually warm air.
It may peak this weekend with a lull in the storm activity promoting less
precip and more sunshine. Widespread 20-30 above normal temperatures may
occur for a day or two. It would be that warm now if not for the large area
of clouds and rain showers in the East today. Another wave of low pressure
will develop on this weak front adding additional rains to the mix. Farther
South into the Tenn and Ohio Valleys this rain may get heavy. You will have
to go well North into New England to find any measurable snow. Or, you
could head West where a Pacific onshore flow and enough cold air reside for
snow that could be measured in feet in the higher elevations. The trough to
develop in the West looks quite strong. Most models seem to indicate the
current moderate chill will be enhanced late in the period. This may set
the stage for a few record lows through the interior by early next week.
Some of the more extreme solutions bring enough cold air to the coast for
snow in Seattle and Portland. Its possible, but I am not ready to commit to
that yet.
I continue to see private forecast indications of a turn to colder weather
in the 6-10 day outlook and just beyond. The latest NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day
outlooks keep the current regime going. Frankly, I see little to argue with
there. The models do seem to edge some arctic air into the Interior NW and
Northern Plains which seems reasonable. I also believe some cooling is in
order for the East given the potential for record breaking warmth in the
short term. Any front should accomplish this. The storm track from the
Pacific into the Southern Plains and NE still appears active during the
period. January can still produce snows in our Northern latitudes even if
the period averages out above normal. But, these systems still have more
rain in them than snow. Most of the signals I look for to bring a
meaningful cold deep into the U.S. just aren't there. About the only one
that is there is arctic air itself lurking across the border. Some years
that would be enough to forecast it Southward, but this is not one of those
years. As a result, I'll keep an above normal bias for now into the first
week of February for the East while a below normal bias remains in the
West.
For the period Wednesday January 23 through Sunday January 27, expect the
following temperature trends:
Average 4 to 6-degrees below normal: Intermountain West, Desert SW,
California...
Average 1 to 3- degrees below normal: Pacific NW...
Average 1 to 3-degrees above normal: Southern Plains and Rockies...
Average 4 to 9-degrees above normal: Gulf Coast, Southeast, Central Plains,
Mississippi Valley, Northern and Central Rockies...
Average 10 to 15-degrees above normal: Northern Plains, Great Lakes, Ohio
Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast...
Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist APB Energy / True Quote