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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Friday, Feb 01, 2002 at 07:06AM EST    Commentary last updated: Friday, Feb 01, 2002 at 09:07AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote     Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS  or Aquila    New! >> Printable PDF Trader Summary  (You must have Adobe Acrobat Reader  to open or print a PDF)   Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'      Today: Friday, February  1, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 42 +1 ERCOT(SP) 52 +1 FRCC(SE) 81 NC MAAC(NE) 64 NC MAIN(CTR) 32 +1 MAPP(HP) 25 +1 NPCC(NE) 46 +5 SERC(SE) 63 NC SPP(SP) 43 +2 WSCC(NW) 39 NC WSCC(RK) 32 +1 WSCC(SW) 52 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 27 48 36 24 64 48 47 Max 36 36 52 40 31 68 59 52 Min 27 23 39 33 16 61 41 43 Range 9 13 13 7 15 7 18 9 StD-P 2.2 3.7 2.0 2.0 4.2 2.5 4.8 2.5 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:    The last of the warm air will be scoured out of the East today with near to below normal temperatures for most of the country by early next week. A very active Southern jet stream could spin up two more significant winter storms through next weekend.  From the looks of the models today, the pattern is about as active as it gets. Imagine the possibilities if only there was more cold air in the mix. While brutal air is still not expected, the potential for winter farther South is on the increase next week. We will see a temporary break from the storminess over the weekend. The current storm now in Pennsylvania will move out to sea and drive colder air into the region. A cool and dry weekend seems to be shaping up for most areas, but a weak low will drop out of Canada, across the Lakes and toward New England on Sund! ay. The current storm will probably drive out most of the available moisture, but some lake effect is possible so some light snow amounts should occur. The next Pacific wave comes ashore in a fairly harmless fashion initially. However, the set up looks favorable for some sort of Low pressure to develop in the vicinity of the Gulf coast early next week. It would head toward the SE US and could be an interesting factor. As far as temperatures go, the high pressure over the Western Plateau (Colorado and Utah) is keeping that region in a trapped cold air mass. The Plains will slowly modify from the current shallow arctic air in place while the East undergoes a rather pronounced cooling to near if not slightly below normal levels, a far cry from the record highs of the past two weeks.    Tomorrow: Saturday, February  2, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 35 +1 ERCOT(SP) 54 +2 FRCC(SE) 72 -2 MAAC(NE) 39 +1 MAIN(CTR) 34 +3 MAPP(HP) 31 +1 NPCC(NE) 30 +3 SERC(SE) 52 -1 SPP(SP) 45 +2 WSCC(NW) 42 +1 WSCC(RK) 32 NC WSCC(SW) 54 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 31 29 38 27 54 49 50 Max 35 40 48 42 33 68 54 54 Min 28 27 19 34 16 45 44 46 Range 7 13 29 8 17 23 10 8 StD-P 1.7 3.1 6.6 2.2 4.7 4.7 2.0 2.3 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Sunday, February  3, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 34 NC ERCOT(SP) 55 -3 FRCC(SE) 72 NC MAAC(NE) 41 +4 MAIN(CTR) 32 -1 MAPP(HP) 26 -2 NPCC(NE) 30 +5 SERC(SE) 51 -1 SPP(SP) 46 -2 WSCC(NW) 42 NC WSCC(RK) 36 -1 WSCC(SW) 58 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 29 30 31 38 30 53 51 52 Max 32 36 33 42 37 56 55 58 Min 24 24 27 34 22 48 47 48 Range 8 12 6 8 15 8 8 10 StD-P 1.8 3.5 1.6 2.6 3.9 2.8 2.5 2.5 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 4: Monday, February  4, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 27 -6 ERCOT(SP) 53 -3 FRCC(SE) 66 -1 MAAC(NE) 32 -7 MAIN(CTR) 28 -3 MAPP(HP) 26 -2 NPCC(NE) 24 -3 SERC(SE) 50 -3 SPP(SP) 46 -3 WSCC(NW) 40 +1 WSCC(RK) 36 +2 WSCC(SW) 60 +2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 25 31 29 39 28 50 50 55 Max 29 36 32 42 37 57 54 60 Min 19 28 25 35 18 44 45 51 Range 10 8 7 7 19 13 9 9 StD-P 3.3 2.4 2.5 2.9 5.8 4.1 3.2 2.0 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 5: Tuesday, February  5, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 32 -2 ERCOT(SP) 60 +2 FRCC(SE) 63 -7 MAAC(NE) 31 -6 MAIN(CTR) 31 NC MAPP(HP) 32 +4 NPCC(NE) 24 -2 SERC(SE) 48 -2 SPP(SP) 48 +5 WSCC(NW) 43 +1 WSCC(RK) 41 +4 WSCC(SW) 60 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 33 24 39 32 47 50 55 Max 31 39 30 43 42 54 57 60 Min 26 29 17 35 27 40 45 51 Range 5 10 13 8 15 14 12 9 StD-P 1.5 2.1 4.4 2.1 4.1 3.9 3.1 2.6 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:  The 6-10 day period looks colder for the nation as a whole than recent weeks. I still dont see us bringing in any real brutal arctic air, but the SE ridge that has been in place for much of January is no more. In all cases, the models suppress the storm track to the Southern U.S. which opens the door to another potentially major winter storm, but quite a bit farther South than the last one. The solutions are all over the place which one would expect this far out. One aspect that struck me as noteworthy was the Canadian's depiction of a large arctic high over the Northern U.S. It has had it for three runs in a row, but given the high surface pressures does not look as cold as I would have expected. It's just another product of a strange winter I suspect. So, while I still am not in any kind of arctic camp on this, I do be! lieve the areas of above normal temperatures will be very limited. I look for most areas to run near or slightly below normal.    Day 6: Wednesday, February  6, 2002  Click Here  for Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information.  Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 38 +3 ERCOT(SP) 62 +3 FRCC(SE) 66 -3 MAAC(NE) 39 +1 MAIN(CTR) 36 +1 MAPP(HP) 34 +3 NPCC(NE) 31 +3 SERC(SE) 52 +3 SPP(SP) 51 +3 WSCC(NW) 42 NC WSCC(RK) 40 +1 WSCC(SW) 60 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 32 36 27 39 34 48 52 55 Max 35 40 34 42 42 54 59 60 Min 30 31 23 33 25 41 47 51 Range 5 9 11 9 17 13 12 9 StD-P 1.6 2.5 2.2 3.3 5.5 3.7 3.4 2.8 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Thursday, February  7, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 39 +1 ERCOT(SP) 62 -2 FRCC(SE) 69 NC MAAC(NE) 43 +4 MAIN(CTR) 36 -1 MAPP(HP) 31 NC NPCC(NE) 34 +5 SERC(SE) 57 +2 SPP(SP) 50 +1 WSCC(NW) 44 +1 WSCC(RK) 39 NC WSCC(SW) 60 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 34 33 38 33 52 55 54 Max 35 41 37 44 42 59 60 60 Min 32 28 28 34 23 46 51 51 Range 3 13 9 10 19 13 9 9 StD-P 0.8 3.8 2.0 3.1 5.6 3.4 2.8 3.1 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 8: Friday, February  8, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 32 +2 ERCOT(SP) 61 +5 FRCC(SE) 59 +1 MAAC(NE) 38 +4 MAIN(CTR) 29 -2 MAPP(HP) 26 -6 NPCC(NE) 35 +9 SERC(SE) 50 +6 SPP(SP) 44 -4 WSCC(NW) 39 +6 WSCC(RK) 29 +1 WSCC(SW) 54 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 34 35 39 33 53 57 53 Max 36 38 38 44 41 59 61 60 Min 27 31 32 34 26 48 49 47 Range 9 7 6 10 15 11 12 13 StD-P 2.6 1.6 1.3 3.2 4.8 3.7 2.4 4.1 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Saturday, February  9, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 34 +2 ERCOT(SP) 56 -5 FRCC(SE) 63 NC MAAC(NE) 36 +6 MAIN(CTR) 30 -7 MAPP(HP) 29 -1 NPCC(NE) 27 +3 SERC(SE) 52 +3 SPP(SP) 45 +2 WSCC(NW) 41 +4 WSCC(RK) 30 +12 WSCC(SW) 59 +9     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 34 32 39 32 54 57 55 Max 36 39 38 45 44 60 63 61 Min 30 31 26 36 25 49 49 48 Range 6 8 12 9 19 11 14 13 StD-P 1.9 2.1 3.2 2.8 5.2 3.1 3.8 4.6 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 10: Sunday, February 10, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 30 -4 ERCOT(SP) 57 +9 FRCC(SE) 64 -5 MAAC(NE) 42 +5 MAIN(CTR) 26 -6 MAPP(HP) 16 -7 NPCC(NE) 39 +13 SERC(SE) 48 -5 SPP(SP) 44 +5 WSCC(NW) 36 -1 WSCC(RK) 34 +5 WSCC(SW) 61 +6     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 26 31 33 22 50 50 47 Max 36 31 39 36 35 51 55 61 Min 23 21 19 29 9 48 45 33 Range 13 10 20 7 26 3 10 28 StD-P 3.9 3.3 5.4 3.0 11.1 1.5 3.1 12.5 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]