expect some producer selling if/when mrkt stabilizes.  
 
what production data are you looking at?

-----Original Message-----
From: Abramo, Caroline 
Sent: Tuesday, October 30, 2001 6:55 AM
To: Arnold, John
Subject: RE: NG deal in California


custy interest from sell side?  or buy? 
 
sounds like the producers are pretty hedged?
 
what do you think of the fact that production is disappointing?
 
that fact is keeping some from selling more (my guys).. but i argue that its already priced into the curve.. and economic outlook overwhelms..
 
??

-----Original Message-----
From: Arnold, John 
Sent: Tuesday, October 30, 2001 7:51 AM
To: Abramo, Caroline
Subject: RE: NG deal in California


not much from customers lately.  Customers waiting for market to stabilize before doing any hedging

-----Original Message-----
From: Abramo, Caroline 
Sent: Tuesday, October 30, 2001 6:43 AM
To: Arnold, John
Subject: RE: NG deal in California


morning.. i wrote the top and robyn bottom.. we sent the bottom part to the customer who brought the article to our attention.. I'd like to say i read the gas daily everyday but i miss it a lot..
 
there are a few things going on.. the client is long cy02/short cy03 socal.. and the deal last week impacts that position.. thats their interest.
 
our interest is whether or not there are more of these deals coming.. which i was trying to figure out.
 
what have you been seeing flow-wise lately?
 
 

-----Original Message-----
From: Arnold, John 
Sent: Tuesday, October 30, 2001 7:34 AM
To: Abramo, Caroline
Subject: RE: NG deal in California


who wrote the market commentary are at the bottom of this and who wrote the rest?

-----Original Message-----
From: Abramo, Caroline 
Sent: Monday, October 29, 2001 4:44 PM
To: Arnold, John; Maggi, Mike
Cc: Quigley, Dutch; Griffith, John; Zivic, Robyn
Subject: FW: NG deal in California



sorry not to send this earlier..

i checked out the dept water resources site.. (wwwowe.water.ca.gov).. nothing too illuminating except that their power costs have come down from over $300 in march to$45 this month but due to the nature the borrowing costs associated with the LT contracts, they will not be able to pass on much savings to consumers (gotta love that).

we were supposed to have received a copy of all their LT purchases in July. checking what happened there.  we know that there were 54 contracts signed .. half linked to gas which covered 1/3 of cali's total needs (looks like for 10 years).  some left open the possibility of the state procuring gas supplies for the plants.. dwr has signed 6 agreements w/ gas suppliers..pretty sure cali uses 25,000-45,000 MW per year which is about 70 contracts a day in gas terms.  If they locked in 1/3.. it would be about 25/day.. the deal they just did was about 16/day for just cal02..probably waiting for curve to flatten further to do more..

they purchased another 500 MW in Aug - the 17th (all 10-12 years)..and to date it looks like they have not purchased anything (have been selling into the grid daily) but not liquidating any previously negotiated LT deals (LT is anything beyond 3 months).

it sounds like they are planning on buying more of their gas requirements.. Sempra (who has LT power contracts with DWR and gives them the ability to buy 80% of their gas) said DWR had not purchased any gas yet.

 

 

Pls note story on page 5 & 6 of todays gas daily... 

mentions California Dept of Water looking to hedge gas purchases for long-term contracts. 

over the past few days we have seen Major Inv. Bk Buying  Cal 02 Nymex Calls and the same bank buying Cal 02 Socal basis calls - very good size

This, we believe, is a hedge for this DWR story. The article mentions that they were "looking at ways to expand its gas purchases".

The article does not mention, nor do we know, how far out they are looking to purchase. 

Socal basis has moved on the back of this deal.... 
Last week: 
Cal 02 = 9 cents    Cal 03 = 20 cents 

Today 
Cal 02 = 18.5 cents   Cal 03 = 22 cents....so the spread has moved from 11 cent  contango  to 3.5 cents. 

<<102401.pdf>> 

Other than the call buying we saw related to this deal, the rest of the flow we are seeing is : sellers of vol. 
Last night settles: 
Cal 02 vol  51.5% and Cal 03 vol 37.25% - and we are 1 % lower in Cal 02 since the open , and 0.5 % lower Cal 03.