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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Friday, Oct 26, 2001 at 08:25AM ET    Commentary last updated: Friday, Oct 26, 2001 at 09:31AM ET  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote     Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS  or Aquila    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'     Today: Friday, October 26, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 45 +1 ERCOT(SP) 76 NC FRCC(SE) 74 -3 MAAC(NE) 55 +3 MAIN(CTR) 45 -3 MAPP(HP) 40 -2 NPCC(NE) 51 +3 SERC(SE) 67 +2 SPP(SP) 64 -2 WSCC(NW) 60 -2 WSCC(RK) 59 NC WSCC(SW) 76 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 46 48 56 54 64 68 73 Max 45 55 52 62 61 70 76 76 Min 35 37 44 52 43 58 59 68 Range 10 18 8 10 18 12 17 8 StD-P 2.1 4.3 2.2 2.4 5.6 3.7 4.8 2.6 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10    Day 1-5 Discussion:   Cold air in the East will linger through the weekend but will get rapidly scoured out next week. Next trough set to enter the Western U.S.  There is currently a long and strong fetch of NW winds driving cold air through the Plains and then South and East. Some Lake effect snows are occurring with this as well though much of the Great Lakes moisture is a cold rain. Sprawling high pressure covers almost the rest of the country and the trend in temperature is about to become one of moderation. The surface high in the Plains will shift to the East coast by early next week and the NW winds now will shift to the SW allowing the warm up to commence. It will start in the Plains this weekend and go East of the Mississippi by Monday. My five day temperature departures are still largely below normal, but they s! hould be used with caution in a see-saw pattern such as this. After all some areas(especially in the Plains) may start out 15-20 below normal today and go 10-15 above normal by Day 5(Tuesday). By the end of the period, the Eastern trough will be out to sea, a new trough will invade the West and Pacific style air will rule coast to coast. That air can be damp along the West coast, but as it sinks over the mountains it quickly warms up and dries out. This pattern is allowing the wet season to get started in the PNW. It appears each successive Pacific storm is getting a little stronger and forming further South. If the trend continues, we could start seeing moisture getting into Northern California next week.  Tomorrow: Saturday, October 27, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 43 -1 ERCOT(SP) 74 -2 FRCC(SE) 68 -2 MAAC(NE) 50 NC MAIN(CTR) 45 -2 MAPP(HP) 50 -2 NPCC(NE) 48 NC SERC(SE) 57 -3 SPP(SP) 63 -2 WSCC(NW) 55 -2 WSCC(RK) 69 +1 WSCC(SW) 73 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 56 45 50 62 56 67 69 Max 45 64 49 56 70 62 74 73 Min 35 49 41 46 54 49 58 65 Range 10 15 8 10 16 13 16 8 StD-P 3.0 4.3 2.1 2.9 5.4 3.1 4.2 2.7 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10   Day 3: Sunday, October 28, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 50 NC ERCOT(SP) 74 -2 FRCC(SE) 70 NC MAAC(NE) 50 NC MAIN(CTR) 54 -1 MAPP(HP) 59 NC NPCC(NE) 47 NC SERC(SE) 58 -1 SPP(SP) 69 -1 WSCC(NW) 54 +1 WSCC(RK) 62 NC WSCC(SW) 70 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 48 57 41 49 60 55 69 66 Max 56 65 48 55 68 61 74 71 Min 43 50 37 45 52 48 62 63 Range 13 15 11 10 16 13 12 8 StD-P 3.5 4.3 3.8 2.8 4.4 3.5 3.8 2.7 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8   Day 4: Monday, October 29, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 56 NC ERCOT(SP) 75 -1 FRCC(SE) 75 -1 MAAC(NE) 57 -1 MAIN(CTR) 58 +1 MAPP(HP) 57 +2 NPCC(NE) 52 NC SERC(SE) 65 NC SPP(SP) 71 +1 WSCC(NW) 55 NC WSCC(RK) 61 +3 WSCC(SW) 69 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 51 55 47 50 57 58 67 63 Max 57 59 53 55 64 67 75 69 Min 45 51 43 47 51 52 60 61 Range 12 8 10 8 13 15 15 8 StD-P 3.5 2.9 3.0 1.8 4.0 4.0 4.5 2.7 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6   Day 5: Tuesday, October 30, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 58 +1 ERCOT(SP) 76 +1 FRCC(SE) 79 NC MAAC(NE) 59 NC MAIN(CTR) 58 +1 MAPP(HP) 53 +1 NPCC(NE) 52 NC SERC(SE) 69 NC SPP(SP) 71 +1 WSCC(NW) 54 NC WSCC(RK) 57 +2 WSCC(SW) 66 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 51 57 49 50 52 62 67 60 Max 56 59 54 54 59 70 75 66 Min 47 53 44 47 47 56 59 57 Range 9 6 10 7 12 14 16 9 StD-P 3.1 2.1 2.8 2.0 3.6 4.2 5.7 2.6 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6    Day 6-10 Discussion:  I continue to see good agreement with the models in the 6-10 day period. The country should remain bathed in Pacific air well into the first week of November and I believe even beyond. Troughs continue to move into the West and then in a progressive pattern stay fairly weak in their move East. Without any blocking in Canada, it is hard for me to see much likelihood for any arctic air to get entrained. My confidence remains high in a largely above normal temperature forecast. It is a little less optimistic in terms of precipitation. I question how much Gulf of Mexico moisture can be worked back to the North, but some models suggest the Plains could get wet next week. I have not discussed the tropics much this week because there has not been a storm to mention. There still isn't, but the overall pattern we are going into ne! xt week can in a climatological sense sometimes crank something up in the Caribbean and push it North towards Florida. My guess is there will not be a named storm as such, but some potential for heavy rain.  Day 6: Wednesday, October 31, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 60 +2 ERCOT(SP) 77 +2 FRCC(SE) 81 NC MAAC(NE) 57 -1 MAIN(CTR) 58 +1 MAPP(HP) 56 +1 NPCC(NE) 50 NC SERC(SE) 71 NC SPP(SP) 72 +4 WSCC(NW) 54 NC WSCC(RK) 54 -1 WSCC(SW) 66 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 53 55 47 48 46 65 69 61 Max 58 60 52 54 54 72 76 66 Min 50 52 42 45 39 62 65 57 Range 8 8 10 9 15 10 11 9 StD-P 2.9 2.8 4.0 2.5 6.2 3.1 3.4 3.7 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 7: Thursday, November  1, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 60 NC ERCOT(SP) 76 -1 FRCC(SE) 82 +1 MAAC(NE) 61 NC MAIN(CTR) 59 NC MAPP(HP) 55 NC NPCC(NE) 51 -3 SERC(SE) 73 +1 SPP(SP) 66 -1 WSCC(NW) 55 +1 WSCC(RK) 53 -1 WSCC(SW) 68 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 56 53 51 49 42 69 69 62 Max 59 58 54 55 52 74 73 68 Min 53 48 48 45 35 66 64 59 Range 6 10 6 10 17 8 9 9 StD-P 2.6 3.8 2.5 2.5 7.0 2.2 4.2 3.2 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 8: Friday, November  2, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 55 -2 ERCOT(SP) 67 -3 FRCC(SE) 75 NC MAAC(NE) 60 +1 MAIN(CTR) 53 -5 MAPP(HP) 49 NC NPCC(NE) 55 +1 SERC(SE) 66 NC SPP(SP) 53 -9 WSCC(NW) 51 +5 WSCC(RK) 46 +6 WSCC(SW) 64 +2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 55 51 55 50 46 69 69 66 Max 60 57 57 55 56 73 73 69 Min 52 49 51 47 39 66 64 62 Range 8 8 6 8 17 7 9 7 StD-P 2.6 2.6 1.7 2.2 3.9 2.2 4.0 2.8 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 9: Saturday, November  3, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 52 -4 ERCOT(SP) 64 -1 FRCC(SE) 75 NC MAAC(NE) 58 -3 MAIN(CTR) 50 NC MAPP(HP) 51 +3 NPCC(NE) 55 -1 SERC(SE) 67 +1 SPP(SP) 54 -1 WSCC(NW) 50 +5 WSCC(RK) 48 +1 WSCC(SW) 65 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 52 50 53 49 46 67 64 66 Max 59 52 57 52 47 69 69 70 Min 47 46 44 45 43 63 62 63 Range 12 6 13 7 4 6 7 7 StD-P 3.6 2.5 4.4 2.0 1.2 2.1 2.6 2.0 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4   Day 10: Sunday, November  4, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 47 NC ERCOT(SP) 63 +4 FRCC(SE) 72 -1 MAAC(NE) 49 -5 MAIN(CTR) 52 +4 MAPP(HP) 53 +6 NPCC(NE) 48 -5 SERC(SE) 60 NC SPP(SP) 59 +8 WSCC(NW) 44 NC WSCC(RK) 47 +1 WSCC(SW) 64 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 51 47 47 41 41 64 61 56 Max 53 53 50 44 48 65 63 64 Min 49 39 44 37 30 62 59 45 Range 4 14 6 7 18 3 4 19 StD-P 1.2 5.7 1.8 3.1 6.6 1.3 1.3 8.5 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]