Atlantic Tropical Development Outlook      Issued:   08:45 AM Monday October 29, 2001   [IMAGE]   Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:   Morning satellite and surface observations suggest that a low-level circulation is developing near the border of Honduras and Nicaragua. Conditions aloft in the northwest Caribbean are becoming favorable for a tropical depression to form. Most mid and long-range models now indicate the development of a tropical depression east of the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday or Wednesday. With favorable upper-level winds and very warm water in the region, we can see no reason why development will not occur. We now estimate the chance for development to be 70-80 percent.   The next question would be - where will the system go should it develop? This seems fairly straightforward. High pressure to the north will be weakening by Wednesday afternoon. This should allow the developing storm to track northward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday afternoon. Timing will play a major role here. If the depression/storm moves into the southeastern Gulf earlier, then the threat for landfall will be farther westward - perhaps even the Florida Panhandle. The later the system enters the Gulf, the farther east the track would likely be - perhaps the lower Florida Peninsula. In either case, it appears that Florida is at greatest risk with this developing system.   As for how strong it might get, upper-level winds are now quite favorable for development in the northwest Caribbean, so we can see nothing to stop any depression in the area from quickly intensifying to at least a moderate tropical storm. Some models are indicating that this system has the potential to become a hurricane once it moves into the southern Gulf. We certainly can't rule that out, but there still remains a bit of upper-level wind shear across the southeastern Gulf. This wind shear could certainly hinder development as the system moves northward into the Gulf. But regardless of how strong the storm gets, Florida will likely be receiving quite heavy rainfall next Friday/Saturday as the system moves across the state.   Beyond Florida, current projections take a storm off the east U.S. coast and merge it with a fairly strong cold front. It is quite possible that the storm would be losing tropical characteristics as it heads northward off the east U.S. coast. In fact, the air along the east U.S. coast from Virginia northward may even be cold enough for some snow as the storm passes off to the east early next week.   Finally, it currently looks unlikely that any developing storm in the southeastern Gulf would track northwestward toward the Texas or Louisiana coasts. Mid and upper-level steering flow appears to be from the SSW-SW. This would prevent any motion to the northwest.    Tropical Atlantic:   Tropical Depression 14 remains about 1500 miles northeast of the Caribbean. The depression is heading out to sea and will be no threat to any land areas. There are no other significant disturbances in the tropics.   Chris Hebert