Time Slots Available on Wednesday

Bob Brooks will be in Houston next week for training and demonstration of
the GPCM Natural Gas Market Forecasting System.  There are still two time
slots available on Wednesday, December 20.  If you would like to meet with
Bob, please contact him at mailto:rebrooks@rbac.com or 323-663-4831.

From http://www.enerfax.com:

Canadian Arctic Natural Gas Development Proceeds

   Oil companies that are planning to tap the vast natural gas
reserves in the Canadian Arctic say they will soon move past the
study stage and could start preparing a regulatory application for a
multibillion-dollar pipeline early next year. The group, which
includes Imperial Oil, Gulf Canada Resources, Shell Canada and Exxon
Mobil, started studying how to develop the 6 Tcf of reserves in the
Mackenzie Delta region of the Northwest Territories about a year ago.
Over the past year, other oil companies have amassed large land
positions in the region, expecting a pipeline with a capacity of more
than 1 Bcf per day to be built to southern markets along the
Mackenzie River Valley. At the same time, major oil companies led by
BP Amoco are formulating plans for developing their own reserves at
Prudhoe Bay in northern Alaska, along with a pipeline. Last week, BP,
Exxon Mobil and Phillips said they had joined forces to study
construction of a pipeline to tap over 35 Tcf of Alaska natural gas.
Industry debate has centered on which resources would be developed
first, and whether they need to go ahead together. Governments,
companies, northern communities and aboriginal groups all have stakes
in any development that takes place, and the most optimistic guess as
to when volumes could start flowing is at least five years. The
Imperial-led group says it has already carried out extensive and open
discussions with more than 70 parties representing a variety of
interests. Imperial said the study was aided by the consortium's
relationship with the Aboriginal Pipeline Group, which represents
more than 30 native leaders from the Northwest Territories.
Meanwhile, the group had examined various issues related to pipeline
funding and ownership, with the aim of making capacity available to
all producers in the region. In addition, the companies drew up a
draft regulatory road map to streamline that process.

Natural Gas Storage

    The AGA is expected to report that natural gas storage levels
decreased by about 150 to 180 Bcf when its report is released this
afternoon. Last week, the AGA reported storage at 2,429 Bcf for the
week ending December 1st, down 73 Bcf from the previous week, and
down 503 Bcf  from 1999. With blizzard conditions across much of the
nation this week, next weeks withdrawal is expected to be even
larger, likely exceeding 200 Bcf. If that is the case, storage levels
could drop below 2 Tcf before winter even officially begins. The AGA
reported a 73 Bcf withdrawal for the comparable period a year ago.
The five-year average is 68 Bcf. Last week, the producing region's
storage decreased 11 Bcf to 611 Bcf, 64% of capacity. Producing
storage levels are now 226 Bcf below a year ago. The eastern
consuming region had a withdrawal of 57 Bcf to 1,495 Bcf, 81% of
capacity and 163 Bcf below a year ago. The western region storage
levels decreased by 5 Bcf to 323 Bcf, 64% of capacity. Western region
storage levels are now 114 Bcf lower than a year ago.

TETCO Plans Incremental Expansion Project for Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

    Texas Eastern Transmission plans an open season for its Texas
Eastern Incremental Market Expansion, or TIME, a new project to bring
additional supplies of natural gas to the growing mid-Atlantic and
Northeast markets. TIME will combine unsubscribed existing capacity
with incremental firm capacity to create a low-cost expansion option
for Texas Eastern shippers. During the open season from December
11th  January 12th, shippers can submit non-binding nominations to
move volumes from the Gulf Coast, Chicago/Lebanon lateral and other
receipt points on the TETCO system to delivery points in the
Northeast.  By utilizing existing capacity that initially served
Midwest markets, TIME will enable TETCO to reconfigure its existing
pipeline system and with modest additions to existing facilities
provide significant increased capacity to mid-Atlantic and Northeast
markets at existing approved rates. In recent years, the Northeast
and mid-Atlantic markets have experienced renewed growth in
traditional markets as well as the construction of new electric
generation.  With its ability to bring the capacity to market
quickly, TIME is well-positioned to capture this growth.

Bob Brooks
GPCM Natural Gas Market Forecasting System
http://gpcm.rbac.com