-----Original Message-----
From: 	tradersummary@syncrasy.com@ENRON [mailto:IMCEANOTES-tradersummary+40syncrasy+2Ecom+40ENRON@ENRON.com] 
Sent:	Tuesday, July 31, 2001 9:19 AM
To:	vkamins@ect.enron.com
Subject:	Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Tue, Jul 31, 2001

 
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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complementary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Tuesday, Jul 31, 2001 at 08:50AM ET    Commentary last updated: Tuesday, Jul 31, 2001 at 09:51AM ET  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'     Today: Tuesday, July 31, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 88 NC ERCOT(SP) 96 +1 FRCC(SE) 89 NC MAAC(NE) 80 -1 MAIN(CTR) 93 NC MAPP(HP) 89 +2 NPCC(NE) 80 NC SERC(SE) 89 NC SPP(SP) 96 +2 WSCC(NW) 73 -1 WSCC(RK) 80 +1 WSCC(SW) 83 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 86 83 77 70 80 84 95 82 Max 92 87 81 77 84 89 98 85 Min 78 78 69 64 75 80 91 78 Range 14 9 12 13 9 9 7 7 StD-P 3.5 2.8 3.5 5.2 2.8 2.6 2.1 2.4 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10    Day 1-5 Discussion:  *** Tropical system is very much up in the air. A trough is in the air for the West. Plenty of heat and humidity is in the air for the East.***  The tropical wave in the Caribbean near Hispaniola does not look as organized as it did yesterday. This will result in a delay of naming it a storm with the distinct possibility it never develops. Most of the models do bring a system into the Southern Gulf by Thursday, but interaction with Cuba tomorrow may keep it very weak. Steering currents favor this moving towards Mexico by Sunday. The rest of the tropics remain eerily quiet.  There is plenty of weather news for the continental U.S. in the short term and it centers around the Plains heat ridge. It is flexing NE once again with the rest of this week looking quite hot from the Plains to the Ohio Valley. La! te in the week, the Great Lakes and NE get in on this for a day or two, but there is still a weakening Canadian influence on those areas. Another front should drop from the Lakes towards the Mid-Atlantic Thursday and Friday. The NW flow does not look particularly impressive, so the cooling looks moderate at best. We still look to be absent of widespread 100 degree heat outside the Plains, but plenty of 90's and humidity will bring 100+ afternoon heat indices. There is still very little of note going on in the Western U.S. The hydro situation in the NW remains, but temperatures in most of the region are at or slightly below seasonal norms.   Tomorrow: Wednesday, August  1, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 90 NC ERCOT(SP) 96 NC FRCC(SE) 88 +1 MAAC(NE) 85 NC MAIN(CTR) 90 +1 MAPP(HP) 80 +1 NPCC(NE) 84 NC SERC(SE) 89 NC SPP(SP) 94 +1 WSCC(NW) 79 -1 WSCC(RK) 82 -1 WSCC(SW) 85 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 83 82 78 74 80 84 95 84 Max 91 88 85 80 85 89 98 87 Min 74 78 70 67 77 79 90 80 Range 17 10 15 13 8 10 8 7 StD-P 3.8 2.3 4.6 4.3 2.5 2.9 2.8 2.1 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10   Day 3: Thursday, August  2, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 86 -1 ERCOT(SP) 96 +1 FRCC(SE) 87 NC MAAC(NE) 86 -1 MAIN(CTR) 85 NC MAPP(HP) 81 NC NPCC(NE) 86 +1 SERC(SE) 90 NC SPP(SP) 94 +3 WSCC(NW) 80 +3 WSCC(RK) 85 -1 WSCC(SW) 88 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 79 84 78 75 82 82 94 86 Max 84 93 88 80 85 89 97 88 Min 75 78 69 71 73 78 90 84 Range 9 15 19 9 12 11 7 4 StD-P 3.5 3.2 5.3 3.2 3.4 3.2 2.5 1.4 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8   Day 4: Friday, August  3, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 84 NC ERCOT(SP) 95 +1 FRCC(SE) 87 -1 MAAC(NE) 84 -1 MAIN(CTR) 85 NC MAPP(HP) 86 +1 NPCC(NE) 81 NC SERC(SE) 91 NC SPP(SP) 94 +1 WSCC(NW) 79 +4 WSCC(RK) 87 +3 WSCC(SW) 87 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 79 87 74 74 83 82 92 85 Max 85 90 82 79 87 90 95 87 Min 75 82 70 69 80 78 89 83 Range 10 8 12 10 7 12 6 4 StD-P 2.9 2.8 3.6 3.5 2.2 2.9 2.2 1.6 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6   Day 5: Saturday, August  4, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 85 NC ERCOT(SP) 96 +2 FRCC(SE) 89 NC MAAC(NE) 83 -1 MAIN(CTR) 86 +2 MAPP(HP) 88 +4 NPCC(NE) 80 -1 SERC(SE) 90 -1 SPP(SP) 93 +1 WSCC(NW) 79 +5 WSCC(RK) 86 +4 WSCC(SW) 86 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 81 87 73 74 82 83 92 84 Max 86 92 81 83 85 90 96 88 Min 77 82 68 67 78 79 89 81 Range 9 10 13 16 7 11 7 7 StD-P 2.9 3.2 3.7 4.9 2.8 2.7 2.0 2.2 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6    Day 6-10 Discussion:  All of the models point to a very warm period for the 6-10 day outlook (and likely beyond). The early stages of my predicted warmer than normal August appear to be setting up as planned. What seems to be in disagreement is where the hottest air sets up. It has been the Plains primarily this summer. The most recent runs of the European and Navy models suggest that the hottest air especially relative to normal shifts to the Lakes and NE as a monster of a ridge forms in the area. The Canadian and MRF models look more like a flat broad ridge East of the Rockies which keeps the heat core West of the Mississippi. If any of these verify close to reality, most all of the Eastern 3/4 of the country will be above normal anyway, but I like the large ridge idea, the European seems overdone. The pattern continues to be favorable for t! ropical activity, but something out in the tropics has to get cranked up first. The last couple of years, most tropical activity has been recurved NE away from the U.S. due to a trough in the Atlantic. It currently is no where to be found, but at the moment, neither is the tropical activity.  Day 6: Sunday, August  5, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 85 +1 ERCOT(SP) 95 +1 FRCC(SE) 90 NC MAAC(NE) 84 +1 MAIN(CTR) 86 +1 MAPP(HP) 87 +6 NPCC(NE) 80 NC SERC(SE) 90 +1 SPP(SP) 93 NC WSCC(NW) 79 NC WSCC(RK) 87 +4 WSCC(SW) 85 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 81 87 72 75 85 83 92 84 Max 86 90 82 86 87 90 95 90 Min 78 83 67 69 82 79 88 80 Range 8 7 15 17 5 11 7 10 StD-P 2.1 2.1 3.9 6.3 2.0 2.9 2.4 3.0 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 7: Monday, August  6, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 84 NC ERCOT(SP) 93 -1 FRCC(SE) 90 -1 MAAC(NE) 85 +1 MAIN(CTR) 85 +1 MAPP(HP) 86 +4 NPCC(NE) 81 -1 SERC(SE) 89 NC SPP(SP) 91 -1 WSCC(NW) 79 -3 WSCC(RK) 86 +1 WSCC(SW) 86 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 80 88 72 74 83 82 89 84 Max 85 89 82 87 87 89 93 92 Min 76 84 68 66 80 78 83 81 Range 9 5 14 21 7 11 10 11 StD-P 2.1 1.3 3.9 7.4 2.3 3.2 4.4 3.7 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 8: Tuesday, August  7, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 86 +9 ERCOT(SP) 92 +8 FRCC(SE) 90 +10 MAAC(NE) 86 +11 MAIN(CTR) 86 +7 MAPP(HP) 86 +8 NPCC(NE) 82 +10 SERC(SE) 90 +10 SPP(SP) 91 +5 WSCC(NW) 81 +7 WSCC(RK) 85 +5 WSCC(SW) 86 +3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 83 87 76 74 82 82 89 84 Max 86 88 84 84 85 90 94 89 Min 81 85 70 68 79 79 82 81 Range 5 3 14 16 6 11 12 8 StD-P 1.3 1.0 3.1 6.8 1.4 3.0 5.2 2.9 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 9: Wednesday, August  8, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 80 +4 ERCOT(SP) 79 -6 FRCC(SE) 80 -1 MAAC(NE) 78 +2 MAIN(CTR) 82 +5 MAPP(HP) 86 +7 NPCC(NE) 73 +2 SERC(SE) 79 -1 SPP(SP) 84 +2 WSCC(NW) 70 +2 WSCC(RK) 80 -1 WSCC(SW) 81 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 82 86 74 73 80 81 87 84 Max 83 86 75 81 80 82 95 89 Min 81 86 73 70 79 79 80 81 Range 2 0 2 11 1 3 15 8 StD-P 0.3 0.1 0.8 3.9 0.4 1.1 6.6 2.8 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4   Day 10: Thursday, August  9, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 81 +7 ERCOT(SP) 80 -5 FRCC(SE) 81 -1 MAAC(NE) 80 +7 MAIN(CTR) 81 +5 MAPP(HP) 85 +5 NPCC(NE) 74 +10 SERC(SE) 81 +1 SPP(SP) 82 NC WSCC(NW) 74 +4 WSCC(RK) 80 +1 WSCC(SW) 80 -3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 76 77 73 65 71 78 80 73 Max 82 85 76 74 80 80 80 80 Min 70 70 69 55 59 75 79 65 Range 12 15 7 19 21 5 1 15 StD-P 5.5 7.2 3.4 8.6 9.3 2.4 0.8 6.7 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]