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HotToday - http://TradeWorld2000.com
______December the 13th, 2000__________
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CTS HOT TODAY...By Nick Van Nice
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_________Volume 2, Number 209 __________

Good morning everyone, the purpose of CTS Hot Today is to help
you prepare for the trading day ahead.

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Nick's Trading Tip of the Day (12/13)
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"Harness the Power of Confluence"

The Websters definition of confluence is;

To come together or flow together like two streams converging
into a river.

For technical trading, confluence is a very powerful concept.
For example, a stochastics crossover from oversold levels has
no statistical significance on its own merit. However, as soon
as you say the trend is up, then entering on the crossover produces
positive results is some markets. Furthermore, let's say the oversold
stochastics has formed while prices are testing major chart support or
perhaps the breakout point of a weekly price pattern or congestion areas.
That's a higher standard of confluence.

For a current example of confluence, let's examine the Canadian dollar;

1. Trend is down as quantified by the CTS trend arrows. (Long and Int.)
2. Correction has unfolded in a text book zig-zag correction that has
retested
the neckline of a massive head and shoulder top as seen on the
weekly chart at 66.00. 3. The zig-zag correction shows A and C are
equal and both break down into 5 legs.
4. Daily stochastics show a trend confirmation sell signal with a clear
failure
point above the neckline.
5. Today's gap lower open has caused daily stochastics to cross and
confirms the entire scenario.

Bringing together two or more technical indicators or observations that
point
in the same direction is called confluence. My experience has shown me that
the more technical evidence I can stack in my corner, the higher the
probability of the desired outcome. Now please, don't
misunderstand what I'm saying. I don't believe accurate technical
analysis on it own produces a high probability
of winning trades. A high probability of winning comes from your exit
strategy.
If you keep your expected profit/loss ratio small, then you will win
on greater than 50% of your trades. However, if you look for the big
ratio (3 to 1 or higher, then
you're doing well to win on anything greater than 35% of your trades.

One of the greatest exercises my Father passed down to me, was using
all charting time frames to establish confluence before taking a trade.

You start with the monthly chart, go to the weekly chart, then to the daily
and
finally the hourly. Write down on each chart what the indicators are saying
and what price patterns have formed. If you find a market that has bullish
evidence
on every time frame, then you have a great candidate for a long entry.

I like taking the CTS Market Selector list of strong trending markets,
and doing a complete monthly chart to 60-minute chart review searching for
confluence. The great trades almost always have substantial evidence from
multiple time frames before unfolding.

Another case and point is Feeders;

The monthly and weekly charts clearly identified a major up trend in
motion and a bullish price pattern several weeks ago. We had confluence on
the daily price patterns and stochastics trend confirmation signals.

Hogs and bellies recently had the same type of confluence and that lead
directly
to my 495 point, $1700 winner in Hogs after commissions winner.

The Yen is another market with major confluence. The downside breakout
of the prior 15-month old trading range was recently followed by a pause.
Since we just took out last weeks low, this pattern now projects major
downside
potential. A quick view of the monthly chart shows the prior multi-year
rally
could be an ABC correction. Can you see the concept of confluence at work
here?

Homework:

Review the list of CTS Market Selector bull markets and find the ones
that have confluence on all time frames (M.W.D.60). Feel free to e-mail me
your observations and I'll respond if you'd like.

N

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Key Technical Developments (close of 12/12)
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March cotton dropped to new 5-week lows following the
USDA report. The price pattern looks like an island top with
a see through gap. Only a rally above the gap over the next
few trading sessions will turn the technical positive.

March Japanese Yen closed down 61 points and dropped below
last weeks low. A further decline below last weeks low at 90.88
opens the door for a major collapse of 700 to 1000 points.
Hold shorts if you got 'em with stops above last weeks high.

The March Canadian dollar has confirmed our bearish outlook
talked about yesterday. Huge downside potential is seen to the
62.00 level over the next few months. Tomorrow could be a large down
day!

December and February hogs are showing early signs of a short
term climax. Consider taking profits and heading to the sidelines.

************CTS Universe Trader Banks $1700 profit**************

After a flat performance period for the last few weeks, the CTS Universe
Trader
banked a 495 point profit in December Lean hogs. I really like what I'm
seeing
now in several markets and believe a very profitable period for swing
trading
lies dead ahead. Historically, the first quarter has always been
outstanding.

CTS swing trading pinpoints short term high probability trades in the
strongest
trending markets. We essentually look for corrections in the strongest
trending markets which satisfy our set-up conditions. Our goal is to make
$1,000 per month per contract, while keeping our exposure per trade under 5%
of equity based on a 20,000 account. Another goal is to keep our largest
drawdown under 20%.

All the trades for the CTS Universe Trader are traded in a
real-time account so that we report the exact same results
our subscribers get. The account pays a $20.00 round turn commission
rate and is handled by a broker taking the trades off the website the same
time subscibers get the information. To join one of our exclusive CTS
Swing Trader services go the home page at Tradeworld2000.com
to place your order, or simply call us tomorrow morning at 1-800-331-1069
and tell 'em Nick sent ya.

**********************************************************************

-------------------------------------------------------
Opportunity Alerts (Links to premium content)
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The following are shortcuts to key links for our TradeWorld2000.com
premium subscribers. If you are not a subscriber, it costs only
$29.95 to have access to all of this and much more for the next 30 days.
That's right! Less than $1 per day...

Nick's Hot List...Strong Trends undergoing short term corrections!
See the CTS Market Selector.
<http://tradeworld2000.com/cts/market/msc.pdf>
<A HREF="http://tradeworld2000.com/cts/market/msc.pdf">
AOL Users Click Here</A>

Nick's daily column of short-term opportunities
See the daily trend watch
<http://tradeworld2000.com/cts/market/DTWfs.htm>.
<A HREF="http://tradeworld2000.com/cts/market/DTWfs.htm">
AOL Users Click Here</A>

See MR-2 alert!
<http://tradeworld2000.com/cts/market/mr2_fs.htm>.
<A HREF="http://tradeworld2000.com/cts/market/mr2_fs.htm">
AOL Users Click Here</A>

CTS Stock Selector
<http://tradeworld2000.com/cts/stockad/mss.pdf>.
<A HREF="http://tradeworld2000.com/cts/stockad/mss.pdf">
AOL Users Click Here</A>

See CTS Hot Stock Alert
<http://tradeworld2000.com/cts/stockad/soh_fs.htm>.
<A HREF="http://tradeworld2000.com/cts/stockad/soh_fs.htm">
AOL Users Click Here</A>

If the above links do not work, then consider accepting my invitation
to subscribe to TradeWorld 2000.com. It will give you a serious edge!

------------------------------------------------------
Traders'Key Report Calendar
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Wednesday, December the 13th

8:30 am ET
Nov. Retail Sales - .1%

Thursday, December the 14th

8:30 am ET
Oct Business Inventories - est .3%

November PPI - est .2%.
Worldwide crop production report

Friday, December the 15th

8:30 am ET
Nov. CPI - est .2%
9:15 am ET
Nov Industrial Production - est .1%
Capacity Utilization - 81.9%

______________________________________________________

I hope you found today's message helpful.


Your partner in futures trading,

Nick Van Nice

P.S. E-mail me your comments to:
nvannice@ctsinternet.com <mailto:nvannice@ctsinternet.com>.
-------------------------------------------------------
House Keeping Notes
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CTS HotToday is a free service for subscribers
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Please address your comments and suggestions for this
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___________________###_______________________
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DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not indicative of
future results. The ideas expressed in this document
should be viewed in an educational light. Use the
concepts and trade suggestions to help stimulate
prudent decision-making ideas. As with all
speculation, there is risk of loss. It is up to
each individual to determine his or her own
financial suitability. Any mention to profits relate to
hypothetical profits and may not accurately reflect
the slippage and commissions in the real market.
Trading futures is highly risky and should only be
done after seeking the services of a registered series
3 broker or Certified Financial Planner. Use this information
at your own risk.


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