---------------------- Forwarded by Vince J Kaminski/HOU/ECT on 02/22/2001 
09:30 AM ---------------------------
From: Todd Kimberlain/ENRON@enronXgate on 02/21/2001 09:21 AM
To: Hunter S Shively/HOU/ECT@ECT, George Hopley/HOU/ECT@ect, Kyle 
Berryman/ENRON_DEVELOPMENT@ENRON_DEVELOPMENT, Bob Beyer/ENRON@enronXgate, 
Reno Casimir/ENRON@enronXgate, Huy Dinh/ENRON@enronXgate, Partho 
Ghosh/ENRON@enronXgate, "Gil, Eduardo" 
<Eduardo.Gil@ENRON.com>@SMTP@enronXgate, D Todd Hall/ENRON@enronXgate, Joseph 
Hrgovcic/ENRON@enronXgate, Michael Nguyen/ENRON@enronXgate, Timothy M 
Norton/ENRON@enronXgate, Sandeep Ramachandran/ENRON@enronXgate, Claudio 
Ribeiro/ENRON@enronXgate, Rajib Saha/ENRON@enronXgate, Valter 
Stoiani/ENRON@enronXgate, Mark Tawney/ENRON@enronXgate, Gary 
Taylor/ENRON@enronXgate, Yannis Tzamouranis/ENRON@enronXgate, Steven 
Vu/ENRON@enronXgate, Catherine Woolgar/ENRON@enronXgate, Stephen 
Bennett/NA/Enron@ENRON, Todd DeCook/Corp/Enron@Enron, Vince J 
Kaminski/HOU/ECT@ECT, Jose Marquez/Corp/Enron@ENRON, Andy 
Pace/NA/Enron@Enron, Mike A Roberts/HOU/ECT@ECT, David Ryan/Corp/Enron@ENRON
cc:  
Subject: PROFESSOR JIM ELSNER'S VISIT:  FEBRUARY 22

Professor Jim Elsner from the Department of Meteorology/Geography at Florida 
State University will be visiting the Weather Risk Management group on 
Thursday, 22 February 2001.  Professor Elsner is a leading expert in 
hurricane climate studies, whose current studies include variations in 
tropical cyclone frequency over a variety of time scales and shifts/trends in 
hurricane landfall probabilities and their relationship to climate and 
climate change; he is noted for his seasonal predictions for number of 
hurricanes and landfall probabilities along segments of the U.S. coastline.  
Moreover, he is a leading authority in non-linear dynamics and chaos theory 
and has published a number of papers on these topics.  

His talk will focus on a proposed research topic, which will provide Enron 
with climatological instruments for use in the insurance and long-term 
derivative markets.  The research involves a
Bayesian analysis of the longest available record of hurricane activity along 
the U.S. coastline.  His current, proposed study addresses the hurricane 
threat in the United States, but the methodology can be applied elsewhere.  
The techniques also can be applied to climate extremes including 
precipitation and
temperature.

The talk entitled, "Predictive U.S. Hurricane Climate" is scheduled for 9 
a.m. at the Hyatt -- Arboretum 5 (2nd Floor).

All are cordially invited to attend.

Best regards,
Todd Kimberlain