Executive Summary:

Legislators in both parties are scared about a fiscal meltdown and looking for a realistic Plan B
The Keeley plan is the most likely vehicle and would include the 30% generator haircuts and revenue bonds backed by a dedicated rate component
Despite uncertainty over dealing with transmission lines and continued oppostion from Burton and his consumer group allies, the Keeley plan will probably pass the legislature
The generators will not support the plan until they get clearer guarantees from the state that investigations and lawsuits will end
PG&E could get the same offer as SoCal through the bankruptcy court.

1.	Budget Binge Could Scare Legislators into a Deal

According to sources, the Assembly is "terrified"  of the current holes in the budget due to buying power.  The impact of the  energy crisis is reportedly causing panic among some legislators.  This  panic appears to be moving a SoCal bailout plan forward.
 
 Sources report that a modified Plan B deal is  "not that far off"; it will likely take one to two weeks (more likely closer to  two) to move a deal through the Assembly and the Senate and to the governor's  desk once it is introduced.
 
2.	What Would the New Plan B Look Like?

- This modified Plan B deal, which  will originate in the Assembly, will almost certainly include a dedicated  rate component to pay SoCal's undercollect.  Revenue bonds will be issued  securitized by this dedicated rate component.  It is also very likely that  the generators would be offered 70 cents on the dollar for what they are owed  immediately, with the possibility of more if they win litigation.  (Sources  report that the state is "fairly confident" that at least most generators  would not be successful in winning this additional money.)  Assembly Speaker Keeley  reportedly remains the driving force behind this plan, and it is being drawn up  from within his office.
 
3.	Transmission Lines

- It remains unclear at this time whether a  transmission line purchase or option to purchase will be put into the deal,  since this is a major point of contention between the Democrats and  Republicans.  According to sources, the Assembly is "working on  this."

4.	Plan Looks Good to Pass Both Assembly and Senate 

- According to sources, the vote count for passing  a deal containing the above components (except the transmission line purchase,  which is not yet settled) "looks very good."  The vote in the Senate would  be "very close."  Senator Burton still opposes a bail-out deal, but he  reportedly might not stand in the way of others from voting for the  plan, making its passage more likely.  Even opponents of the plan  (including Burton and the consumer advocates) say that the odds of a modified  Plan B passing the Senate are better than 50-50.  These opponents are  reportedly "pessimistic" about their chances of stopping a Plan B from passing  at this point.

5.	Caveat: Generators Are Waiting For Guarantees That the Witch Hunt Will End
 
- As reported previously, sources continue to  believe that generators would be reluctant to take a 70 cent-on-the-dollar  haircut without the state offering them relief from further prosecution.   (Without this relief, the state could give them 70 cents, then try to take away  even more.)  Sources report that even opponents of the plan accept that the  generators should be offered this relief from prosecution.  Thus, it  appears likely at this time that most generators would accept a 30 percent  haircut if they were paid immediately.  Also, sources believe that the  securitization on the dedicated rate component offered in the modified Plan B  would be sufficient to pay back those generators who successfully litigated to  win more than 70 cents on the dollar.
 
- Sources believe that SoCal Edison's creditors are  likely to forebear from filing an involuntary bankruptcy long enough for this  plan to go through, since it would pay back most of what they are  owed.
 
6.	PG & E Could Also Be Dealt In
 
- If this plan succeeds, it will almost certainly  be taken to the bankruptcy court and offered to PG&E as part of a  reorganization plan.  This plan can be offered at any time within  PG&E's "period of exclusivity."  This is a 90-day period (though it is  often extended) following the filing of a bankruptcy petition.
 
- However, sources report that the state is  concerned about how to approach the bankruptcy court.  Based on Supreme  Court precedent (which legal sources within the state have been reviewing), the  state would likely lose its sovereign immunity if it entered as a party into the  bankrutpcy court.  This is a problem because the stakes in this case are so  high.
 
7.	Bailout Bill Would Require Follow Legislation For A New Rate Structure

- Even if the state passes and signs a SoCal  bailout, it would still need to pass a rate structure that would allow SoCal and  PG&E to flow through cost increases to prevent them from once again facing  bankrtupcy.  Therefore, this plan does not make the crisis go  away.