no real bias today  positive numbers sell negative numbers buy...
looking into other stuff




slafontaine@globalp.com on 03/06/2001 09:15:40 AM
To: John.Arnold@enron.com
cc:  
Subject: Re: contangos vs winter putspds



agreewith all, im mega bear summer 2nd q but for the time being weather and 
as u
said uncertainy likely to lend itself so little downside until either weather
gets warm or injections get big. i dont see the flow as you know but i talk 
to a
cupla utitlities and the bias same as you menioned. ive neutralized bear book 
a
bit cuz i cant afford to fite this thing. with deep pockets tho-i scale up 
sell
next 2-3 weeks take a bet on 200 ish injections in april and 400 in may-ie
records
  aug/oct-yes-low risk-wasnt substantially more inverted when we were 4 bucks
higher-low risk but not a great reward. oct/nov-yea-wont make much for another
few months on that so it range trades but ill cont to bersd it cuz if end 
summer
that strong im always always more bullish the front of winter.
  other thing i wonder is how wide these summer contangos cud get-as everyone 
so
bullish futs for the next few weeks at least.
   weather here sucks to day-tree almost fell on me driving into work-close
one,sahud be about 2 ft of white stuff when its said and done. dunno how long 
i
can stay but doesnt look all that great for me getting out to steamboat 
manana!!

heres a hypothetical.... we agree that demand loss y on y somwhere from 4.5 to
5.0 today, do you guys think that we can see a substantial demand recovery if
prices dont retreat? my ffeeling is no for at least another 90 days or
more.thots?
   any thots on flat px today-im slitely long vs bearsds?