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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Monday, Jan 14, 2002 at 07:43AM EST    Commentary last updated: Monday, Jan 14, 2002 at 09:17AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote     Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS  or Aquila    New! >> Printable PDF Trader Summary  (You must have Adobe Acrobat Reader  to open or print a PDF)   Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'      Today: Monday, January 14, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 43 +2 ERCOT(SP) 65 +2 FRCC(SE) 71 NC MAAC(NE) 46 +2 MAIN(CTR) 39 +2 MAPP(HP) 31 +3 NPCC(NE) 34 +2 SERC(SE) 57 -2 SPP(SP) 52 +3 WSCC(NW) 38 +2 WSCC(RK) 33 +5 WSCC(SW) 57 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 36 32 35 34 29 57 55 54 Max 41 36 39 39 38 61 63 58 Min 34 28 27 29 21 54 47 50 Range 7 8 12 10 17 7 16 8 StD-P 1.6 3.1 2.8 3.2 5.2 1.9 4.7 3.1 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:   This week will see some significant differences from last week. Arctic air finally gets into the battle, but can it win the war?   Signs continue to indicate this is a strange and frustrating winter for many forecasters. One of the strongest N'oreasters in years forms in Mid-January this past weekend. It turns out to be a harmless event for most as it tracks just too far off the coast. Plus, it was too warm for snow other than upstate Maine and a bit of Eastern Mass. Then, a seemingly innocent looking system over the Great Lakes drops some locally heavy snows over areas who spent much of last week over 20 degrees above normal. So much for the look back now we look ahead. There are several challenges ahead, though the main one for energy is in the medium range. I'll outline that one in the 6-10 day paragraph ! below. In the short term, we have lost the unusual warmth in the North, though to call this air cold is a disservice to Northern climes. There are two distinct storm tracks this morning. The Southern branch is all rain along the Gulf Coast and Southeast. The North is a mix with rain in the Southern lakes and some moderate snow in the North. We will see a couple of weak to moderate weather systems come into the West and move across the country. They don't appear to be travel interrupters, but may at least introduce some winter to areas who have not seen much of late. When I superimpose a temperature forecast atop all of this, it looks cooler than last week for sure, but nothing major when compared to normal.    Tomorrow: Tuesday, January 15, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 38 NC ERCOT(SP) 66 +5 FRCC(SE) 71 -2 MAAC(NE) 49 NC MAIN(CTR) 34 +2 MAPP(HP) 23 +2 NPCC(NE) 37 +2 SERC(SE) 57 NC SPP(SP) 51 +6 WSCC(NW) 33 NC WSCC(RK) 29 +3 WSCC(SW) 55 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 26 38 32 28 55 58 51 Max 37 36 41 37 34 61 64 57 Min 27 21 33 25 22 50 53 47 Range 10 15 8 12 12 11 11 10 StD-P 2.3 3.0 1.5 3.3 3.1 3.7 3.8 3.4 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Wednesday, January 16, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 35 +4 ERCOT(SP) 68 +6 FRCC(SE) 70 NC MAAC(NE) 40 +1 MAIN(CTR) 30 +4 MAPP(HP) 18 +2 NPCC(NE) 32 NC SERC(SE) 56 +4 SPP(SP) 45 +5 WSCC(NW) 33 +1 WSCC(RK) 24 -1 WSCC(SW) 54 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 24 32 31 22 53 61 50 Max 30 26 40 33 33 60 64 55 Min 25 20 28 26 15 49 57 45 Range 5 6 12 7 18 11 7 10 StD-P 1.3 1.7 3.3 2.0 4.5 3.8 2.0 3.3 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 4: Thursday, January 17, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 32 +3 ERCOT(SP) 64 +1 FRCC(SE) 74 +3 MAAC(NE) 42 +6 MAIN(CTR) 27 +1 MAPP(HP) 19 -2 NPCC(NE) 30 +4 SERC(SE) 56 +4 SPP(SP) 40 NC WSCC(NW) 36 NC WSCC(RK) 26 -3 WSCC(SW) 53 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 26 23 32 32 22 56 57 49 Max 28 26 36 36 28 59 64 55 Min 23 20 29 28 17 54 53 45 Range 5 6 7 8 11 5 11 10 StD-P 1.8 1.8 1.5 2.2 3.2 1.9 3.3 2.9 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 5: Friday, January 18, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 31 -2 ERCOT(SP) 65 -3 FRCC(SE) 75 NC MAAC(NE) 38 +2 MAIN(CTR) 26 -5 MAPP(HP) 16 -6 NPCC(NE) 30 +1 SERC(SE) 55 -1 SPP(SP) 39 -5 WSCC(NW) 36 -2 WSCC(RK) 26 -4 WSCC(SW) 53 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 23 23 30 33 22 56 55 48 Max 26 26 34 36 29 60 60 54 Min 20 18 25 27 14 52 49 44 Range 6 8 9 9 15 8 11 10 StD-P 1.1 2.6 2.9 2.6 4.8 2.6 2.5 3.1 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:  The 6-10 day period MAY become a bit more challenging. While the Lower 48 has basked in warmer than normal air the past 10 days, we have seen a definite cooldown in Canada. There is finally a real arctic duck on the pond, the question is does it swim South. If one looks at the MRF or Canadian models the answer is clearly no. But, my favorite and seemingly more reliable European is less clear. I think some arctic air will get into the Northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast. The jet stream looks too zonal farther South. However, heavy cold air can sometimes press South in a zonal flow. I don't see a threat in the Southern half of the country where in fact this period should be above normal. The main threat appears to be North of 40 degrees Latitude meaning this is mainly a far Northern U.S. event.     Day 6: Saturday, January 19, 2002  Click Here  for Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information.  Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 32 -4 ERCOT(SP) 58 -7 FRCC(SE) 77 +1 MAAC(NE) 35 -7 MAIN(CTR) 29 -2 MAPP(HP) 25 +1 NPCC(NE) 27 -4 SERC(SE) 54 -4 SPP(SP) 42 -1 WSCC(NW) 40 +2 WSCC(RK) 32 +1 WSCC(SW) 54 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 25 27 28 35 26 56 53 49 Max 28 31 32 40 32 58 60 54 Min 22 23 25 30 20 53 46 44 Range 6 8 7 10 12 5 14 10 StD-P 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.9 3.3 1.7 3.9 3.1 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Sunday, January 20, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 36 NC ERCOT(SP) 62 -1 FRCC(SE) 76 NC MAAC(NE) 39 NC MAIN(CTR) 34 +1 MAPP(HP) 27 +1 NPCC(NE) 32 +3 SERC(SE) 55 -2 SPP(SP) 47 NC WSCC(NW) 40 NC WSCC(RK) 32 NC WSCC(SW) 55 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 28 29 35 28 55 54 49 Max 32 33 34 40 34 59 59 55 Min 20 25 25 30 20 52 49 45 Range 12 8 9 10 14 7 10 10 StD-P 2.6 2.1 2.6 2.7 4.4 2.6 3.3 3.4 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 8: Monday, January 21, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 32 -8 ERCOT(SP) 59 -2 FRCC(SE) 71 -1 MAAC(NE) 35 -9 MAIN(CTR) 32 -2 MAPP(HP) 25 -3 NPCC(NE) 31 +6 SERC(SE) 53 -11 SPP(SP) 38 -2 WSCC(NW) 35 +1 WSCC(RK) 28 +9 WSCC(SW) 47 +2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 31 30 36 30 57 58 49 Max 35 33 35 41 37 60 62 55 Min 27 28 20 30 25 52 54 45 Range 8 5 15 11 12 8 8 10 StD-P 1.8 1.4 3.0 2.8 3.7 2.1 2.2 3.9 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Tuesday, January 22, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 31 -3 ERCOT(SP) 61 +5 FRCC(SE) 69 -3 MAAC(NE) 30 -11 MAIN(CTR) 39 +10 MAPP(HP) 38 +23 NPCC(NE) 29 -5 SERC(SE) 48 -10 SPP(SP) 53 +14 WSCC(NW) 30 -3 WSCC(RK) 29 +8 WSCC(SW) 44 -3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 33 32 34 29 58 60 48 Max 37 40 37 40 36 64 67 55 Min 30 29 29 30 24 52 57 44 Range 7 11 8 10 12 12 10 11 StD-P 2.2 3.5 2.0 3.3 3.5 3.1 1.9 3.5 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 10: Wednesday, January 23, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 41 +13 ERCOT(SP) 67 +14 FRCC(SE) 71 +2 MAAC(NE) 36 +2 MAIN(CTR) 46 +25 MAPP(HP) 37 +25 NPCC(NE) 31 +2 SERC(SE) 59 +9 SPP(SP) 56 +14 WSCC(NW) 27 -6 WSCC(RK) 19 -1 WSCC(SW) 41 -8     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 28 33 29 18 58 56 38 Max 43 34 38 35 23 61 64 44 Min 27 21 31 27 12 54 45 33 Range 16 13 7 8 11 7 19 11 StD-P 5.7 4.1 1.9 2.2 3.3 1.7 6.6 4.1 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]