I know I've been heavily bearish and saying that a close above $19.40 would get
me back into a neutral tone, but I'm going to stick with even the near term bear
view for one more day. The market is reacting bearishly to what I see as neutral
stats. Distillate demand is high, due to run cuts and exports, but the
fundamental window of opportunity may have passed us by, By that I mean that the
traditional late Q1 rally is usually brought on by run cuts combined with cold
weather. Weather is not cooperating and gasoline has been flowing over here.
Price action for the past three days has been firm, especially the past two with
solid spread action. Still can't get behind the move, fighting it a bit, a
strong settle today has to change the short term bear strategy. I am still
extremely worried about the possibility of Russian oil companies ignoring the
OPEC quota and jumping over themselves to raise hard currency.





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