Weather Headlines
Monday October 29, 2001

     *** Pacific air to overwhelm most of the country this week with a lack
of significant storminess. There may however be some late season
percolation in the tropics.***

     For the third time this month, we set a handful of record lows in the
SE U.S. this weekend. The Canadian high is moving toward the coast though
and we should soon initiate a broad (though light) SW flow of air that will
warm the East back to above normal levels. This is already well under way
in the Plains where 70's were common this weekend. This pattern shuts off
the Gulf of Mexico and allows for mainly dry frontal passages. One such
front in the Plains will shift to the NE through Wednesday. Since we have a
zonal flow developing in the upper levels, this front does little more than
slow down the warm up as opposed to stopping it all together. Storms are a
little more robust in the Pacific NW as a deep trough in the Gulf of Alaska
continues to send impulses of energy your way. Some precip should get as
far South as Northern California. With no additional arctic air in sight
this week, most five day averages return to above seasonal norms.

     The most excitement for weather fanatics this week may be late season
development in the tropics. We have a tropical depression in the Central
Atlantic now and satellite pictures suggest another one may be developing
over the next 24 hours in the Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. My
initial thought was its a little too far South and too close to land to
really have an impact in the Gulf and SE. However, there is considerable
forecast scatter among the models. It runs anywhere from nothing at all to
development in the Gulf of Mexico. So, I wont rule it out yet, but since it
would be days away and not even developed yet, I'll wait a couple of days
before issuing a prediction.

     Last week 6-10 day forecasts from the models were largely in agreement
and so far have been mostly on the money. Given the pattern though, I would
have expected this to be the case. The next change in weather will likely
not be so agreed upon and there is already some scatter in the models. My
early expectations are for another buckle to take place in the jet stream
over the Eastern U.S. early in this period. Some keep things zonal, but you
certainly can't argue the trend so far this fall is for this to occur about
every seven days. But, there is reason to think the Eastern trough will not
be as robust as the last several. In other words, it won't be as cold or
spread as far South or West. If it goes this way, we would turn slightly
below normal East, a little above in the West and a little of both (or
normal) in the Plains.

For the period Monday October 29  through Tuesday November 2, expect the
following temperature trends:

Average 4 to 6-degrees below normal: Southeast, Gulf Coast?

Average 1 to 3-degrees below normal: Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, Pacific NW,
Northern California...

Average 1 to 3-degrees above normal: Southern California, Great Lakes, Ohio
and Mississippi Valleys?

Average 4 to 6-degrees above normal: Most of the Plains and Rockies,
Intermountain West, Desert SW?

Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist   APB Energy / True Quote