Results of the Fearless Forecaster Sentiment Poll taken after the close on 1/25

Response was to this question: "At the end of next week will the S & P 500
close up (bull), down (bear), or unchanged/no opinion (neutral)?"

IT BULLS:	28%
IT BEARS:	40%

Our `Smart Money' Poll was twice as Bullish as Bearish and Neutral.

The Senticator is Bearish.

Last week, we said that our read was that we would find room to rally this
week, but overall, the trend was down so once the oversold condition was
corrected, the market could decline. This week, we have a mixed bag but it
looks like our comments from last week can be recycled. The "Smart Money"
is fairly Bullish, and we really haven't worked off much of the short-term
pessimism yet. The Senticator is Bearish, and so are the Fearless Forecasters.

We don't have a ton of confidence in our read, but our guess is that we see
a bit of strength to make the "Smart Money" guys feel good, but by the end
of the week we are heading south as the Senticator and Fearless Forecasters
predict. This is a very odd market, we must say, short term, and sentiment
is giving very mixed signals, as measured by Rydex Ratios and the VIX.
Investors Intelligence shows quite a few more Bulls at 52.4%, which
suggests that we have more downside from here than upside.

Big picture, as before, we believe the recent dead-even Bull and Bear
readings from the Fearless Forecasters, as well as the AAII and Investors
Intelligence sentiment readings indicate that a Top of Intermediate
Proportions is in.

Mark Young

See www.Traders-Talk.com in the Market Analysis area for a historical chart
of the
FF sentiment.

ABOUT SENTIMENT AND ANALYSIS

The Fearless Forecaster Sentiment Poll is taken each Friday from a
generally static pool of experienced technical analysts (both private and
professional). The Fearless Forecaster Sentiment is not normally a good
fade, though there are times when it can be.

The Fearless Forecaster sentiment data is useful on the short term; the
Fearless Forecasters tend to be right. Typically they are right sooner
rather than later, if there's a large plurality. On the flip side of the
equation, if 90% or more are Bullish or Bearish, the odds of them being
right over the very short term are huge, but the odds of a major turn (in
the opposite direction) soon thereafter are also quite good.

We have also found that when the Fearless Forecasters are evenly split,
look for a BIG move in either direction, but usually down.

Over the years, we have found a number of other tools to help in evaluating
the Fearless Forecaster Sentiment. We publish this in our weekly
"Institutional Sentiment & Analysis" (a part of our institutional
research). These additional tools are our "Smart Money" poll, and our
Senticator. Both are proprietary polls run by us.

We have found that the Senticator tends to be right by the end of the week
(as much as 87% of the time), though it tends to be more accurate in a
rising market than a falling one.

The "Smart Money" pollees are very useful when there is divergent opinion.
It's generally NOT a good idea to fade the "Smart Money" unless
"'EVERYONE'" (all sentiment measures) is in agreement. When in doubt about
the meaning of the Fearless Forecaster Sentiment Poll, defer to the "Smart
Money" poll. The "Smart Money" guys are folks with whom I've worked or whom
I've watched for YEARS. They all have different approaches and they're all
VERY good (not infallible, just good analysts/traders).
http://www.decisionpoint.com/affiliate/0ffsi.GIF