Subject: Energy Market Report - 02/01/02


Energy Market Report
Friday, February 1, 2002

*See attached pdf file.
__________________________________________________________
Western Pre-Scheduled Firm Electricity Prices($/MWh)
February 1, 2002 for February 3, 2002

Peak(Heavy)
                   Low      Change**     High     Change**
NW/N. Rockies*    18.75        NA       19.75        NA
Mid-Columbia*     18.75        NA       19.75        NA
COB*              20.00        NA       21.25        NA
N. California*    21.50        NA       23.75        NA
Midway/Sylmar*      NA         NA         NA         NA
S. California*    20.25        NA       24.00        NA
Mead*             21.00        NA       23.00        NA
Palo Verde*       17.00        NA       20.00        NA
Inland SW*        17.00        NA       23.00        NA
4-Corners*        18.00        NA       21.00        NA
Central Rockies*  15.75        NA       18.25        NA
_________________________________________________________
Off-Peak(Light)
                   Low      Change**     High     Change**
NW/N. Rockies*    18.75        NA       19.75        NA
Mid-Columbia*     18.75        NA       19.75        NA
COB*              20.00        NA       21.25        NA
N. California*    21.50        NA       23.75        NA
Midway/Sylmar*      NA         NA         NA         NA
S. California*    20.25        NA       24.00        NA
Mead*             21.00        NA       23.00        NA
Palo Verde*       17.00        NA       20.00        NA
Inland SW*        17.00        NA       23.00        NA
4-Corners*        18.00        NA       21.00        NA
Central Rockies*  15.75        NA       18.25        NA

*Denotes trading of flat, 24-hour products.
**"NA" changes are not applicable because prices for on and off peak goods
are not comparable to flat products.
__________________________________________________________
Western Pre-Scheduled Firm Electricity Prices($/MWh)
February 1, 2002 for February 4, 2002

Peak(Heavy)
                   Low      Change**     High     Change**
NW/N. Rockies     19.75        NA       20.75        NA
Mid-Columbia      19.75        NA       20.75        NA
COB               23.00        NA       23.50        NA
N. California     24.00        NA       27.00        NA
Midway/Sylmar       NA         NA        NA          NA
S. California     24.00        NA       27.25        NA
Mead              25.00        NA       26.00        NA
Palo Verde        23.75        NA       25.50        NA
Inland SW         23.75        NA       27.25        NA
4-Corners         23.50        NA       26.00        NA
Central Rockies   21.75        NA       24.25        NA
__________________________________________________________
Off-Peak(Light)
                   Low      Change**     High     Change**
NW/N. Rockies     18.75        NA       19.75        NA
Mid-Columbia      18.75        NA       19.75        NA
COB               20.00        NA       21.25        NA
N. California     21.50        NA       23.75        NA
Midway/Sylmar       NA         NA         NA         NA
S. California     20.25        NA       24.00        NA
Mead              21.00        NA       23.00        NA
Palo Verde        17.00        NA       20.00        NA
Inland SW         17.00        NA       23.00        NA
4-Corners         18.00        NA       21.00        NA
Central Rockies   15.75        NA       18.25        NA

**"NA" changes are not applicable because prices for on and off peak goods
are not comparable to flat products.
_________________________________________________________
Task Force Taken to Task

Western heavy load energy costs for Monday delivery were mostly steady from
levels reported for the Friday/Saturday package as weather forecasts called
for warmer weather in the new week and spot gas prices remained relatively
stable.  Meanwhile, off-peak prices were largely stronger due to the
inclusion of the all-day Sunday piece.  According to Weather Derivatives,
heating demand in the WSCC was expected drift lower through the new week,
averaging only 96 percent of normal through February 8.  Additionally, the
latest six-to-ten from the NWS was predicting mostly normal temperatures
across the Western U.S. from February 7 through 11.  In other industry news,
a federal judge has ordered Vice President Dick Cheney's energy task force
to explain the constitutional arguments behind its refusal to release
details of its meetings last year, which included executives from Enron
Corp. and other large energy firms.  The Bush administration has so far
refused to release details such as the names of people it consulted and the
subjects discussed in drafting George W's energy policy.

Peak power in the Pacific Northwest was little changed for Monday delivery
as forecasted normal temperatures continued to whittle away at heating
demand, though regional demand was expected to remain slightly above normal
through the new week.  While flow forecasts for the Columbia River were
downgraded slightly on Friday, they appeared to be more than ample enough to
satiate regional demand.  Flows at Chief Joseph were forecast to be 75 kcfs
Saturday, 60 kcfs Sunday, 105 kcfs Monday, and 100 kcfs Tuesday through
Friday.  In unit news, Bridger #4 (520 MW) returned to the grid following
repairs to a plugged boiler that began on Wednesday, but Bridger #1 (520 MW)
slipped into the off-line category for tube leak repairs that were expected
to end on Sunday.  The return date for Colstrip #3 (700 MW) was reportedly
pushed back until February 10.  Utah-based Hunter #1 (446 MW) was scheduled
to come down for 24 hours of repairs beginning around midnight on Friday.
On a side note, BPA said Friday that it expects electricity customer McCook
metals to restart partial production at its idled Longview, Washington
aluminum smelter after a new "take-or-pay" contract kicks in on April 1.
Several regional smelters agreed to halt all aluminum production back in
March 2001 due to the electricity supply crunch in the Pacific Northwest.
Several analysts, however, were skeptical as to whether any smelters in the
region would be restarted this year.

With little change in the generation landscape, flat spot gas prices at the
SoCal border, and normal temperature forecasts for the new week, electricity
prices remained steady in the Golden State on Friday.  Light load prices
appreciated again on Friday, boosted by the all-day Sunday inclusion and
recent trends.  Heavy load pieces at NP15 traded between 24 and 27$/MWh, and
light load deals were done from 21.5 to 23.75$/MWh, picking up by more than
buck on both ends.  In political news, PG&E released the asset and debt
breakdown for its proposed spin-off companies.  In their plan, a generating
company would have $5.3 billion in assets and assume $2.4 billion in debt.
An electric transmission company would be valued at $1.6 billion and take on
$1.1 billion in debt.  Lastly, a gas transmission company would have assets
of $1.4 billion and assume $900 million in debt.  However, U.S. bankruptcy
judge Montali has not yet ruled on PG&E's reorganization plan, and for
fracturing of the utility to move forward, the SEC's approval would also be
required.  In unit news, hydro Big Creek Project PSP (1,020 MW) was only
down 150 MW, while gas-burner Alamitos #5 (480 MW) came off the grid for
planned maintenance.  California weather forecasts called for gradual
warming over the weekend, leading temperatures into just below-normal
territory for the early part of the new week.  Highs for Monday and Tuesday
were expected near 70 degrees in Los Angeles, while northern load centers
anticipated highs near 58 degrees.  The most current six-to-ten called for
normal temperatures from February 7 to 11.

Peak power prices in the Southwest were largely steady for Monday delivery,
but some late-day selling caused prices to end near session lows.  Heavy
load energy costs at Palo Verde ranged from 23.75 to 25.5$/MWh, with
unconfirmed deals as low as 22$/MWh reported about an hour after the normal
trading session had ended.  "It's still supposed to be cold to start the new
week, but the worst of it is certainly over, or so our in-house forecasters
say," said one Phoenix-based trader.  Some traders believed unit outages
could keep supplies a bit tight to start the new week, but that forecasted
warming would keep most strength at bay.  Coronado #1 (395 MW) had its
return date pushed back once again.  The Arizona-based unit was now sporting
an ETR of 06:30 MST on Saturday, but parties with a share in the unit said
they had not scheduled with it in place.  Meanwhile, Navajo #2 (750 MW) was
set to enter a planned maintenance outage on February 2, with an official
ETR of February 25.



Patrick O'Neill and Jessie Norris
_________________________________________________________

Western Generating Unit Outages

Current                            Begins          Ends          Reason
CAISO units <250/7048 total          NA             NA
planned/unplanned*
Alamitos #3/320/gas               26-Jan-02         ?            planned
Alamitos #4/320/gas               31-Jan-02         ?            planned
Alamitos #5/480/gas               01-Feb-02         ?            planned*
Alamitos #6/480/gas               20-Jan-02         ?            planned
Bridger #1/520/gas                01-Feb-02     03-Feb-02        tube leak*
Colstrip #3/700/coal              11-Jan-02     10-Feb-02        repairs*
Corondado #1/395/coal             25-Jan-02     02-Feb-02        tube leak*
Encina #4/303/gas                 12-Jan-02         ?            unplanned
Etiwanda #4/320/gas               21-Jan-02         ?            planned
Four Corners #5                   09-Jan-02     14-Mar-02        maintenance
Grand Coulee #19/600/hydro        10-Dec-01       March          repairs
Haynes #6/341/gas                 07-Jan-02         ?            planned
Helms PGP #2/407/hydro            01-Oct-01         ?            planned
Hunter #1/446/coal                02-Feb-02     03-Feb-02        repairs*
Hyatt/Thermalito/933/hydro        02-Oct-01         ?      @665 MW,
unplanned
Moss Landing #7/739/gas           29-Dec-01         ?            planned
Navajo #2/750/coal                02-Feb-02     25-Feb-02
maintenance*
Ormond Beach #1/725/gas           28-Dec-01         ?            planned
Ormond Beach #2/750/gas           05-Oct-01         ?      @350 MW,
unplanned
Pittsburg #6/317/gas              22-Nov-01         ?            planned
Scattergood #3/445/gas            22-Jan-02         ?            maintenance

Future
Palo Verde #2/1270/nuclear        16-Mar-02     20-Apr-02        maintenance

For unit owners refer to pdf version.
*Indicates a change from previous EMR.
______________________________________________________________________

Eastern Markets Pre-Scheduled Firm Power Prices ($/MWh)

February 1, 2002 for February 4, 2002

Peak (Heavy) in $/MWh
                 Low     Change   High      Change
Into Cinergy    18.00     0.50    20.50      0.65
Western PJM     24.25     2.55    24.90      2.90
Into Entergy    19.00     1.40    20.50      0.25
Into TVA        18.50     0.00    20.50      0.50
ERCOT           19.00     0.50    19.75     -1.25
___________________________________________________________
With the return of winter weather and a rash of unit outages, peak power
prices strengthened across the Eastern Interconnect on Friday.  To the
relief of sellers, forecasts called for a dip in temperatures by Saturday.
"Get out and enjoy it, because tomorrow winter is back," recommended one
Philadelphia-based energy dealer.  NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures were
steady on Friday.  March was unmoved, closing at 2.138$/mmBtu, while April
rose less than a cent to end at 2.198$/mmBtu.

Heavy load electricity prices climbed back into the mid-20s in the
Mid-Atlantic on Friday, on expectations of stronger loads in the new week
and the possibility of a weekend outage.  Western PJM goods for Monday
delivery changed hands between 24.25 and 24.9$/MWh, gaining a robust 3$/MWh
at both ends of the spectrum.  LMPs appreciated on Friday after spending
most of the business day near 30$/MWh, but only averaged 24.47$/MWh.
According to sources, troubled coal-burner Keystone #2 (850 MW) was expected
off-line over the weekend for maintenance.  The unit was down earlier in the
week for unplanned repairs.  Temperatures in the comfortable 60s were
expected to disappear over the weekend.  Monday forecasts called for normal
conditions across PJM, with highs in the low-40s and lows in the low-30s.
The most current six-to-ten predicted above-normal temperatures from
February 7 to 11.

Expectations of early spring maintenance outages and colder weather
forecasts affected the grid on Friday, bolstering the dailies in ECAR.  Into
Cinergy deals were heard between 18 and 20.5$/MWh, firming up 65 cents to a
day ago.  In unit news, Missouri nuke Callaway (1,125 MW) was off-line on
Friday.  Quad Cities #2 (789 MW) was at 95%, powering down for a maintenance
outage expected to last through the end of February.  Sister unit #1 (821
MW) was still off-line early Friday, but expected to return over the
weekend.  Traders continued to keep their ear to the ground, hoping for
information on other upcoming maintenance outages.  Temperatures for the new
week were expected to drop back into the mid-30s across most of ECAR, with
overnight lows in the frosty low-20s.  The latest six-to-ten from the NWS
called for above-normal temperatures from February 7 to 11.

With forecasts finally calling for cold temperatures and a stronger gas
market, peak power prices appreciated in the Southeast on Friday, while
Texas lost ground on little news.  Into Entergy day-ahead pieces were bought
and sold between 19 and 20.5$/MWh, while balance of February traded at a
slight discount around 18.9 to 19.1$/MWh.  ERCOT deals were mostly heard
between 19 and 19.75$/MWh on Friday.  SERC weather was expected to turn cold
with the new week, with overnight lows expected below freezing through
Tuesday.  Texas temperatures were expected to linger in the near-normal
doldrums.  The most current six-to-ten called for above-normal conditions in
Texas and northern SERC and normal temperatures in southern and coastal SERC
from February 7 to 11.
___________________________________________________________


California ISO Congestion Index in $/MWh

                         Path                 Peak   Off-peak
for 02-Feb-02         NW1 to NP15             0.00     0.00
                      NW3 to SP15             0.00     0.00
                      AZ3 to SP15             0.00     0.00
                      LC1 to SP15             0.00     0.00
                      SP15 to NP15            0.00     0.00



OTC Forward Peak Electricity Contracts in $/MWh

                    Mid-C              PV              SP-15
                Bid      Ask      Bid      Ask      Bid      Ask
BOM            18.00    19.00    21.50    22.50    23.00    24.00
March          15.25    16.75    20.75    21.75    21.50    22.50
April          15.25    16.75    22.00    23.00    NA       NA
May            14.75    16.25    23.25    24.25    24.00    25.00
Q2 '02         15.00    16.50    23.50    24.50    23.50    24.50
Q3 '02         28.00    29.50    37.25    38.25    36.50    37.50
Q4 '02         27.00    28.50    27.00    28.00    28.50    29.50
Q1 '03         NA       NA       27.75    28.75    29.75    30.75
Cal '03        28.75    30.25    32.00    33.00    34.00    35.00

Represents the most recent bid/ask spread obtainable
by the Energy Market Report.



Alberta Power Pool Index (C$/MWh)

                    Peak(14)   Peak(16)   Off-Peak    Flat     Change
for  31-Jan-02       27.02      25.81      10.16      20.99     -8.77



BPA's Offer for 02/05/02.

Hours        Amount          NW delivered        COB/NOB delivered
7-22         200MW           Market Price*          Market Price*
1-6,23,24    200MW           Market Price*          Market Price*

*Market price will be determined at time of request.



NYMEX Henry Hub Gas Futures in $/mmBtu

                 Close        Change
        Mar      2.138         0.000
        Apr      2.198         0.008



Natural Gas Spot Prices in $/mmBtu

                  Low          High
Sumas             1.98         2.03
So. Cal Border    2.13         2.18
San Juan          2.03         2.08
__________________________________________________________

Economic Insight, Inc. - 3004 SW First, Portland, Oregon 97201,
Telephone (503) 222-2425, Internet e-mail emr@econ.com -
Copyright, Economic Insight, Inc. 2002.