Friday confirmed all the ominous signs from earlier in the week, i.e. weak
spreads, lack of short covering after a large down move, and particularly
gasoline's erosion. All these things pointed to the market's seeing gasoline as
vulnerable and laid the groundwork for this week, which has all the makings a
very sharp and quick sell off. Gann lines show the close below $19.70 to be
significant and point to a very quick move towards $17.20. I would not be
surprised to see this achieved this week as the move accelerates. Gasoline will
be particularly hard hit with Q2 gas cracks seen as a target. The problem with
gasoline this year stems from distillate. Even a solid turnaround schedule will
not lead to much, since an abundance of heating oil and lack of sustained cold
weather will give refiners a nice margin for error. Gas, even though the demand
picture should stay firm, is seen as the one component that has some fat left in
it; Everything else has had premium and margins taken out of it already. The
only thing to watch for is a reversal, since we finsihed Friday on the day's
low.  Look out below.....




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