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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Tuesday, Feb 05, 2002 at 07:07AM EST    Commentary last updated: Tuesday, Feb 05, 2002 at 09:08AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote     Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS  or Aquila    New! >> Printable PDF Trader Summary  (You must have Adobe Acrobat Reader  to open or print a PDF)   Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'      Today: Tuesday, February  5, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 33 -2 ERCOT(SP) 46 +1 FRCC(SE) 64 NC MAAC(NE) 35 -1 MAIN(CTR) 32 -3 MAPP(HP) 32 +1 NPCC(NE) 25 +1 SERC(SE) 43 NC SPP(SP) 36 NC WSCC(NW) 40 -2 WSCC(RK) 34 NC WSCC(SW) 58 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 32 25 38 26 46 44 52 Max 34 39 30 41 34 49 46 57 Min 25 26 20 35 17 43 41 49 Range 9 13 10 6 17 6 5 8 StD-P 2.6 3.1 2.5 1.9 4.8 1.7 1.1 2.3 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:   There is still no true arctic air in the pattern, but the Southern jet stream is active for storms and the trend is certainly colder than recent weeks.   We have seen a definitive change in the weather pattern from last month. January on the whole featured the strong ridge and unseasonable warmth in the Eastern U.S. while the West had a trough and occasional record breaking cold. If you smooth out the maps, we will see in general a reversal over the next two weeks with a trough in the East and Ridge in the West. I still don't see any highlight making cold with this trough, but a "cold and stormy" projection does not seem unreasonable for the East. We have this morning a storm in the South that will bring snow to Oklahoma and NW Texas today with rain farther South. It will track towards the SE U.S. coast through Th! ursday then appears to move out to sea. The Interior SE may see some light to moderate snow with this, but otherwise will be a rainmaker. This should be the most significant weather maker in the short term. The coldest of the air in the short term covers the Eastern U.S. right now. This should start modifying although only in a gradual sense through the rest of the week.    Tomorrow: Wednesday, February  6, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 39 +1 ERCOT(SP) 49 -4 FRCC(SE) 72 NC MAAC(NE) 42 +1 MAIN(CTR) 37 +2 MAPP(HP) 38 +3 NPCC(NE) 31 +3 SERC(SE) 44 NC SPP(SP) 39 -2 WSCC(NW) 43 +1 WSCC(RK) 38 +1 WSCC(SW) 58 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 36 28 40 32 50 45 54 Max 42 45 35 43 39 52 49 58 Min 31 29 25 36 25 48 40 50 Range 11 16 10 7 14 4 9 8 StD-P 2.3 3.6 2.9 2.1 4.1 0.8 2.2 2.4 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Thursday, February  7, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 42 +3 ERCOT(SP) 60 -1 FRCC(SE) 73 +3 MAAC(NE) 46 +5 MAIN(CTR) 41 +5 MAPP(HP) 38 +9 NPCC(NE) 33 +4 SERC(SE) 49 -2 SPP(SP) 50 -1 WSCC(NW) 43 NC WSCC(RK) 42 +2 WSCC(SW) 60 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 37 34 39 36 51 50 55 Max 40 43 39 44 42 54 57 60 Min 30 32 31 36 29 49 45 51 Range 10 11 8 8 13 5 12 9 StD-P 2.9 3.5 1.7 2.9 3.8 1.2 3.8 2.4 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 4: Friday, February  8, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 44 +9 ERCOT(SP) 64 -1 FRCC(SE) 68 -1 MAAC(NE) 47 +5 MAIN(CTR) 42 +12 MAPP(HP) 39 +13 NPCC(NE) 35 +3 SERC(SE) 58 +2 SPP(SP) 55 +3 WSCC(NW) 44 NC WSCC(RK) 43 +2 WSCC(SW) 62 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 36 38 34 40 35 53 56 57 Max 41 43 39 44 44 60 62 62 Min 31 34 28 34 29 48 51 53 Range 10 9 11 10 15 12 11 9 StD-P 2.1 3.3 2.8 2.9 4.8 2.9 2.4 2.0 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 5: Saturday, February  9, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 44 +8 ERCOT(SP) 65 -2 FRCC(SE) 70 -1 MAAC(NE) 48 +9 MAIN(CTR) 38 +3 MAPP(HP) 32 NC NPCC(NE) 38 +10 SERC(SE) 60 +3 SPP(SP) 51 -4 WSCC(NW) 45 +3 WSCC(RK) 39 -2 WSCC(SW) 65 +3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 36 37 43 35 56 55 60 Max 39 42 41 47 43 62 61 64 Min 31 31 28 36 25 51 51 55 Range 8 11 13 11 18 11 10 9 StD-P 2.8 3.0 2.3 2.1 4.7 2.9 3.9 2.0 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:  The same threats and questions raised yesterday in the 6-10 day outlook still apply today. The Canadian and European schemes still look sharper with the western ridge and eastern trough than their American counterpart. The correct forecast up to now most of the time was to go with the warmer solution. This time I am running with the colder one. The Canadian model has been consistent with a stronger Eastern trough since the middle of last week. It brings a moderate batch of arctic air next week into the Eastern U.S. The potential of some sort of East coast storm also remains in this pattern. I am not by any means forecasting any brutal cold, but I am going against yesterdays NWS 6-10 and 8-4 day outlooks which are above normal in the Eastern U.S. I believe most of the region will grade out slightly below normal instead while th! e West is in a moderating phase.      Day 6: Sunday, February 10, 2002  Click Here  for Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information.  Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 39 -2 ERCOT(SP) 64 -4 FRCC(SE) 70 -4 MAAC(NE) 46 +4 MAIN(CTR) 37 NC MAPP(HP) 33 +4 NPCC(NE) 40 +12 SERC(SE) 56 -4 SPP(SP) 54 +1 WSCC(NW) 44 +3 WSCC(RK) 44 +6 WSCC(SW) 63 +3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 40 38 40 40 53 55 60 Max 36 45 42 45 46 60 61 64 Min 28 35 33 36 32 48 48 55 Range 8 10 9 9 14 12 13 9 StD-P 2.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.7 4.3 4.3 2.4 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Monday, February 11, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 41 +1 ERCOT(SP) 66 -1 FRCC(SE) 70 -5 MAAC(NE) 46 +2 MAIN(CTR) 39 +5 MAPP(HP) 30 +1 NPCC(NE) 37 +3 SERC(SE) 59 -1 SPP(SP) 55 +5 WSCC(NW) 41 -1 WSCC(RK) 38 +4 WSCC(SW) 59 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 36 37 36 37 36 53 59 56 Max 43 41 40 47 47 61 64 64 Min 32 35 28 29 31 46 53 48 Range 11 6 12 18 16 15 11 16 StD-P 3.0 1.7 2.5 5.7 4.9 3.6 2.2 4.9 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 8: Tuesday, February 12, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 40 +3 ERCOT(SP) 64 +8 FRCC(SE) 65 -6 MAAC(NE) 46 -5 MAIN(CTR) 36 +10 MAPP(HP) 21 -3 NPCC(NE) 37 -5 SERC(SE) 57 -5 SPP(SP) 47 +13 WSCC(NW) 31 -4 WSCC(RK) 16 -7 WSCC(SW) 44 -4     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 33 37 38 29 57 59 53 Max 37 45 45 45 46 62 64 62 Min 32 24 29 29 15 52 55 44 Range 5 21 16 16 31 10 9 18 StD-P 1.2 4.8 3.5 5.1 9.4 1.9 2.1 6.3 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Wednesday, February 13, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 41 +10 ERCOT(SP) 47 +1 FRCC(SE) 70 -1 MAAC(NE) 51 +12 MAIN(CTR) 23 -6 MAPP(HP) 21 -12 NPCC(NE) 42 +12 SERC(SE) 58 +4 SPP(SP) 33 -6 WSCC(NW) 32 -5 WSCC(RK) 22 -6 WSCC(SW) 48 -4     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 32 33 37 38 31 58 51 54 Max 40 38 45 46 40 61 63 60 Min 26 25 29 32 21 53 44 48 Range 14 13 16 14 19 8 19 12 StD-P 3.4 4.8 4.0 4.9 7.0 2.4 6.4 4.8 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 10: Thursday, February 14, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 25 -8 ERCOT(SP) 51 +1 FRCC(SE) 66 NC MAAC(NE) 48 +16 MAIN(CTR) 27 -8 MAPP(HP) 28 -9 NPCC(NE) 43 +18 SERC(SE) 46 +1 SPP(SP) 41 -4 WSCC(NW) 33 -4 WSCC(RK) 28 -7 WSCC(SW) 49 -5     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 25 28 34 34 23 49 42 45 Max 27 31 44 37 29 54 49 54 Min 19 22 23 31 12 42 31 38 Range 8 9 21 6 17 12 18 16 StD-P 2.1 2.7 6.8 1.7 5.7 2.8 7.0 5.3 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]