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Hi Folks,

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Matchups to Avoid  and Exploit.? 

Passing Game  Matchups.?? Here's how I see the matchups this  week.? Please 
note, see the  cheatsheet online?http://www.cheatsheets.net/week15sheet.htm?  
for exactly where I rank playersand to  determine who to start.? Just because 
one matchup may be more  favorable than another, that doesn't necessarily 
mean I'd start the player with  the best matchup.? The matchup info  is meant 
to be just one more tool in your box when it comes to deciding between  
players.?? 

Note:? I,ve used the player stats sorted by  performance over the last four 
weeks extensively in developing these write-ups.  Stats are provided by Mike 
Hall,s excellent FLM League Management Software.? http://www.fflm.com/for 
more info.?  

Here we go:

Locks:? These games heavily favor the Offense  

Seattle Passing  Game vs Bronco Defense??  If we,ve seen one  trend recently 
in defenses it,s to start your QB / WR / TEs against the Broncos  and worry 
about your RBs.? They,re  tough on the running game but easy against the 
pass.? I won,t get into whether that,s a  &chicken or the egg8 situation but 
the bottom line is go with your passing guys  against Denver.? They rank # 31 
in  passing yards allowed per game over the last four weeks.? QB Jon Kitna  
gets another start  and while I have a hard time putting too much faith in 
him, he,s been ok.? Derrick  Mayesand  Sean  Dawkinsshould see lots  of 
action and rookie Darrell  Jacksonis working his  way back into the mix.? If 
you,ve  been sitting on RB Shaun  Alexander, coach Mike  Holmgren did say he 
wanted to see more of Alexander in passing downs but I,m  still not too 
excited about him yet.

Tennessee Passing  Game vs Bengal Defense?? Once again, keep an eye on  QB 
Steve  McNair,shealth this  week.? It,s early, but he,s already  being called 
a game time decision as he tries to recover from knee and ankle  injuries.? 
Keep your fingers crossed  as it,s a tasty matchup vs the weak Bengal pass 
defense.? They rank # 30 in passing yards allowed  per game over the last 
month and are just playing out the season.? Cornerback Rodney Heath is lost 
for the  year with a bad shoulder and that should make things even easier.? 
Derrick  Masonis the clear cut  # 1 WR with Chris  Sanders# 2.? The best 
receiver on the team (or at  least most utilized) is TE Frank  Wycheckwho,s 
starting to  get back to his normal high level of  production.

Denver Passing  Game vs Seahawk Defense??? By now you know the  drill:? Start 
any player vs  Seattle.? Just do it.? The Seahawks are anemic.? QB Brian 
Griese did start to throw some  but he,s still at least a couple weeks away, 
maybe more.? Gus  Frerottegets another  start and if you,re looking for him 
to regain that 400+ yard form he showed  early on, this is his best chance to 
do it.? Rod Smithand  Ed  McCaffreyare the usual  must starts at WR.?  Dwayne 
 Carswelland  Desmond  Clarkare excellent  plays at TE.? I,d start either 
one  and feel pretty good about it, especially  Carswell.

Baltimore Passing  Game vs Charger Defense?? San Diego made a run back at  
respectability on defense but I,m thinking they,ve fallen back down to well  
below average.? Over the last four  weeks, they rank # 27 in passing yards 
allowed per game.? For the year, they rank # 28 in Fantasy  Points allowed to 
the opposing QB.?  The Ravens come back after a bye week off and should be 
ready to  roll.? QB Trent  Dilferis playing  exceptionally well and WRs 
Qadry  Ismailand  Patrick  Johnsoncould do  well.? The most enticing matchup 
may  be Shannon  Sharpeas San Diego  ranks just 24th in Fantasy Points 
allowed to the opposing TE for the  year.

St. Louis Passing  Game vs Viking Defense?? I don,t think you keep  QB Kurt  
Warnerdown for  long.? Sure, he had an awful game  last week but some of that 
can be blamed on the WRs who I bet you don,t see drop  half of what Warner 
throws this time.?  The Vikings still give up lots of passing yards ranking # 
26 in passing  yards allowed per game over the last month.? For the year, 
they rank # 24 in Fantasy  Points allowed to the opposing QB.?  Isaac Bruce 
is the best WR  while Torry Holthas been  surprisingly disappointing lately.? 
 He,s still worth a start though.?  Az-Zahir  Hakimalways has a  chance too.? 
The Vikings just don,t  have the secondary to keep up with these  guys.

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Prime Matchups:? These games favor the  Offense?

Buffalo  Passing Game vs Colt Defense?? I probably get more mail from my  
ripping Rob Johnson than I do for any other player.? I make no apologies as I 
really just  don,t like the guy.? He simply has  major troubles finishing a 
game.?  Although he draws a great matchup this week against Indy, one of the  
weaker defenses in the league.?  Safety Chad Cota has a concussion and is 
questionable so they might be  even less effective.? On the other  hand, the 
Colts definitely seem to up the intensity at home.? As you can see from my 
rankings, I,m not  thinking too much of Johnson again this week, but he does 
have a good  matchup.? Eric Moulds is the  primary WR as always with Peerless 
Price and Jeremy McDonald  picking up the scraps.? TE Jay  Reimersma is a 
favorite target and gets plenty of looks.?

Pittsburgh  Passing Game vs Giants Defense?? The Kordell Stewart  Bandwagon 
is getting awfully crowded lately, but for good reason.? He,s playing very 
solid football.? More importantly, he cleared a huge  hurdle Sunday showing 
some leadership and toughness coming back in the game  after injuring his 
leg.? The Giants  defense is very beatable but do understand coach Jim 
Fassell,s media games where  he says &ok8 more than Joe Pesci in Lethal 
Weapon are apparently working as his  playoff guarantee seems to have 
inspired the team.?? The pass defense still ranks # 25  in passing yards 
allowed  per game over the last month though.? For the year, they rank # 23  
in Fantasy Points  allowed to the opposing QB.? Hines Ward is the WR of 
choice on  this team and I,d feel fine starting him. He,s not even the true # 
2 guy, but  you could do worse then taking a reach on Bobby Shaw.? For some 
reason, I like him over starter  Courtney Hawkins. Even TE Mark Bruener is a 
solid choice as he,s  done more in the last two weeks than he,s done in two 
years.???

Kansas City  Passing Game vs Panthers Defense? I,m  dreading the Gunther 
Cunningham firing as he may make Dick Vermiel look like  Iron Mike.? A solid 
game here could  help him keep his job (which may have Chief fans pulling for 
Carolina()? From a FF perspective, I like Elvis  Grbac here.? He showed 
Monday  night he was clearly back from the finger troubles.? As usual, the 
running game is a mess but  that,s good news for Elvis owners as he,s forced 
to go with what,s been working  for them ) throwing the ball.? TE  Tony 
Gonzalez is having the incredible season we all predicted for him and  he,s 
certainly the best receiver on the team.? Derrick Alexander is a sure  
starter too.? Sylvester  Morris continues to regress which is troubling.? 
Carolina ranks just # 24 in passing yards allowed per  game over the last 
four games although for the year, they,ve  fared better ranking # 9 in 
Fantasy Points allowed to the  opposing QB.? Part  of that is they seem to 
give up a lot of yards without yielding the TD so be  leery in TD only 
leagues.?

Carolina  Passing Game vs Chief Defense?? If you,ve been fence sitting with  
Steve Beuerlein, this may be a week to take a close look at him.? The Chiefs 
rank # 21 in passing yards allowed per  game over the last four weeks and 
they may be missing CB James  Hasty who,s questionable with a knee.?  WR 
Muhsin Muhammad is playing like a man possessed lately and he,s  a sure 
starter.? Donald Hayes  got through last week,s game without reinjuring his 
groin and he,s a solid  option as well.? TE Kris  Mangum is no Wesley Walls 
but he,s a pretty good player.? The Chiefs do get back home where  they,re 
tougher but I like this matchup.?

San  Francisco Passing Game vs Saints Defense??  The 49er pass defense is 
better than people think and the Saints defense  is worse than many assume.? 
Over the  last four games New Orleans ranks # 20 in passing yards allowed 
per  game.? (the 49ers  rank # 16)? In reality, both  defenses are pretty 
suspect.? And  both teams feature QBs who will be winging the ball.? Jeff 
Garcia picked up right where  he left off last week against a tough San Diego 
defense.? It was great news for Terrell  Owens fans as he looks on his way 
back.? In the meantime, Jerry Rice  showed he still has a few tricks in the 
bag.? I wouldn,t be surprised to see Tai  Streets and J.J. Stokes see 
increased time at Rice,s expense though  as many feel the Hall of Famer isn,t 
in the 49er,s plans for 2001.? RB Charlie Garner is always a threat  catching 
the ball.? TE Greg  Clark is suddenly a producer so he,s worth a shot too. 
This could be a  shootout.?

Jacksonville  Passing Game vs Cardinal Defense??  Two teams heading for the 
couch in the post season but that,s about all  they have in common.? 
Jacksonville  just ran out of time as they,re playing well now.? Arizona is 
heading downhill from an  already low position.? Arizona ranks  # 19 over the 
last four weeks in passing yards allowed per  game.? QB Mark  Brunell had an 
injury to his non throwing shoulder but appears to be  fine.? He could be a 
decent play  along with WRs Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell.? Arizona CB 
Aneaes Williams is a player  but he can,t do it all.? The biggest  problem 
for the Jaguar passing game is talking coach Tom Coughlin into calling  
something besides a Fred Taylor run which will likely result in a 7 yard 
gain  each time(?

Minnesota  Passing Game vs Ram Defense?? You don,t need any analysis from  me 
to know you,d better start Daunte Culpepper, Cris Carter and Randy  Moss.? 
The Rams are much  improved on pass defense where over the last four weeks, 
they rank # 17  in passing yards allowed  per game.? Still  though, the 
Minnesota &Big 38 (&Big 48 counting RB Robert Smith) are no  brainers.??  

New Orleans  Passing Game vs 49er Defense?? QB Aaron Brooks  continues to be 
one of the better stories of this season.? He,s facing a 49er time that,ll be 
chock  full of youngsters although they,re playing better of late ranking # 
16  in passing yards allowed  per game over the last four weeks.? But that 
was before losing Safety Lance  Shulters to a torn ACL last week.?  Brooks 
will have Joe Horn catching the ball and Horn should  continue to shine.? 
Willie  Jackson is a solid # 2 WR and TE Andrew Glover has come alive  
lately.?  

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Even Matchups:? These games  feature no real advantage either way?

Detroit  Passing Game vs Packer Defense?? Of course, all this hinges on the  
ribs of one Charlie Batch.?  If he can,t go, all bets are off.?  In fact, 
even if he can go, you should hedge your bets a bit as we,ve  already seen 
one good shot to the chest can mean taking a seat for Batch.? It,s not a bad 
matchup though against a  Green Bay defense that,s ranked # 22 in passing 
yards allowed per  game.? Johnnie  Morton is likely the top choice at WR with 
Herman Moore in the mix  too.? Germane Crowell may be  able to make his 
return this week as he,s been practicing this week.? I wouldn,t start him yet 
but keep an eye  out as might pay dividends for astute owners who scoop him 
up.? I can see plenty of James Stewart in  this one though as the weather 
could be really nasty for this  one.?

Chicago  Passing Game vs Patriot Defense?? This one,s full of story lines as  
a healthy Cade McNown remains on the bench this week in favor of Shane  
Matthews.? The juicy rumor here  is that according to a story in the Sun 
Times, McNown would receive a $8.25  million escalator clause if he plays in 
55% of the offensive snaps this year and  next.? He,s currently at 54%(? 
Conspiracies aside, Matthews will be  without WR Marcus Robinson who,s out 
for the year with a bulging disk in  his back.? New England ranks # 23  over 
the last four weeks in passing yards allowed per  game but the turmoil could 
take it,s toll on the Bears.? The Bears will also be without Offensive  
Coordinator Gary Crowton who took the BYU job.? Some think that will be a 
positive.?? I honestly have a hard time  getting too excited about Eddie 
Kennison and Marty  Booker.?

Dallas  Passing Game vs Redskin Defense? I,m really interested to see how 
the  team responds to new coach Terry Robiskie.?  I,ll be surprised if they 
don,t kick things up several notches.? Although I do find it odd that the 
guy  in charge of the worst performing part of the team (passing game) is the 
guy  they decided to elevate to head coach.?  Who knows?? QB Troy  Aikman 
will try to get through another game without being maimed.? He,ll have James 
McKnight and  Wayne McGarity to throw to but neither guy looks too promising 
against a  pretty tough defense.? Dallas showed  last week the complete lack 
of faith they have in Aikman when they kept feeding  Emmitt Smith the ball as 
they trailed Tampa by a mile.? David LaFluer and Jackie  Harris both are 
dropping along with Aikman.?

Philadelphia  Passing Game vs Brown Defense?? Two teams used to bringing up 
the  rear lately meet with one soaring and the other limping.? QB Donovan 
McNabb finds himself  in a strange spot here.? The Browns  are so pitiful 
against the rush that most teams choose to rush the ball on them  at the 
expense of throwing it.? But  with McNabb the team,s best rusher, he,ll have 
to decide which way he,s going to  beat the Browns.? Charles Johnson  and 
Torrance Small aren,t much.?  TE Chad Lewis is the best receiver and he could 
make some  noise.? I'm interested to see how quickly they work in newly 
signed  RB Chris Warren.

Miami  Passing Game vs Buccaneer Defense??  Another good case of 
misconceptions.? Miami is better throwing the ball than  people give them 
credit for and the Bucs aren,t as dominant stopping the pass  like many 
think.? Over the last four  weeks, Tampa ranks # 14 in passing yards allowed 
per  game.? Very solid  for sure, but not dominating.?  Jay Fiedler continues 
to astound his critics as he threw for 3 TDs  Sunday.? I don,t think you,ll 
see  the same production here but he,s still a decent play.? Leslie Shepherd 
had been my  favorite WR here but with his surgery, it looks like Tony Martin 
will  finally get a start.? Oronde  Gadsden continues to make sick catches.?

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Downside Matchups:? These games favor the  Defense

Cleveland Passing  Game vs Eagle Defense ??This is where Doug Pederson,s at:? 
He gets the start this week because  rookie Spergon Wynn can,t go due to 
injury(?? WR Kevin Johnson is running the  scout team in practice.? Against 
the  tough Eagles secondary, he likely will have trouble no matter where he 
lines  up.? I don,t look for much here from  any of these guys.

Cincinnati Passing  Game vs Titan Defense?? The Bengals just won,t die  
quietly.? Corey Dillon keeps running  the ball like a mad bull and QB Scott  
Mitchellseems intent on  proving to folks he really can play at this level.? 
He may be able to but he draws a tough  matchup Sunday in a Titan team that,s 
solid.? They rank # 11 over the last four week  in passing yards allowed per 
game.?  Although they may catch break as CB Samari Rolle is nursing a bad 
wrist  and will likely have to play with a brace.?  WR  Peter Warrickwill 
reportedly  have his contact lenses Thursday and that could make a 
difference.? He,s often worth a roll of the dice for  the start as he has the 
big play  potential.

New York Giant  Passing Game vs Steeler Defense?? The Steelers seemed to 
enjoy the  spoiler role last week against Oakland and they get another shot 
this week  against the Giants.? Pittsburgh,s  playing tough pass defense now 
as they rank # 10 in passing yards allowed per  game over the last four 
games.?  Kerry  Collinsis steady but not  exciting.? He,ll be throwing to  
WRs Amani  Toomerand  Joe  Jureviciusas it looks like  Ike Hilliard may not 
be fully ready yet this week.? Keep an eye on that one though.? TE Pete  
Mitchellhasn,t been  nearly the factor we,d thought he,d be.

Oakland Passing  Game vs Jets Defense?? The Raiders look to bounce back  this 
week and you can bet they do a better job keeping up with the down and  
distance.? The Jets are playing  tough defense of late ranking # 9 in passing 
yards allowed per game over the  last four weeks.? Still though,  QB Rich  
Gannonis a pretty much  sure starter unless you,re loaded at QB.?  Same thing 
with WR Tim  Brown.? You might roll the dice on  Andre  Risonor  James  
Jettbut Brown is the  man.? TE Ricky Dudley  is likely worth a  start just on 
potential but he,s incredibly frustrating. (like I needed to tell  the Dudley 
owners THAT()?  

Green Bay Passing  Game vs Lion Defense?? Not only must the Lions defense  
hit the field without star CB Bryant Westbrook, they also have to face  Brett 
 Favrein the cold  weather where he,s invincible.?  Check the weather 
conditions for this one as it could be more than just  cold.? He,s good when 
it,s freezing  outside but trying to throw the ball in a driving snowstorm is 
an entirely  different matter.? Favre will be  throwing to WR Bill Schroeder  
who I think is the  better WR choice over mega bucks Antonio  Freeman.? TE 
Bubba  Franksis always worth a  look.? RB Ahman  Greenis a nice  surprise and 
he,s catching the ball well.

New York Jets Passing  Game vs Raider Defense??  Two teams that,ll see  what 
they,re made of square off in a Sunday Night matchup.? The Raiders are tough 
against the pass  ranking # 7 in passing yards allowed per game over the last 
four weeks.? QB Vinny  Testeverdeseems to have  finally gotten himself 
untracked.?  WR Wayne Chrebetmay be handled by Charles Woodson but that 
leaves  Dedric Wardand  Windrell Hayesfor  WRs.? They,ll be fine.? FB Richie 
Andersonquietly racks up receiving totals and he could have  a good day again 
this week.?  TE Anthony Becht continues to play well and is really coming  
along.

New England  Passing Game vs Chicago Defense?? Star QBs on the bench( 
Coaches  leaving( What,s a player to think??  If you,re a defensive player 
for the Bears, you,re thinking you,d better  go out and prove some people 
wrong that think you,re finished.? Chicago plays tough pass defense ranking  
# 6 in passing yards allowed per game over the last four week.? QB Drew 
Bledsoe  will look for  WR Terry  Glennand the suddenly  red hot Troy Brown.? 
TEs Rod  Rutledgeand  Jermaine  Wigginshold down the TE  spot.? I hope 
Shockmain Davis gets a  TD as I love to write his name(?  

Indianapolis  Passing Game vs Bills Defense?? QB Peyton  Manningis still a  
starter in most leagues but you should know he,s facing a tough matchup this  
week. He struggled a bit last time these teams met with a season low 187 
yards  passing (although he did have 2 TDs)?  Marvin  Harrisonis of course 
the  clear cut # 1 Guy.? It looks like  Terrence  Wilkinsis finally  breaking 
out of his slump and could be a contributor again.? Both TEs Ken Dilgerand  
Marcus  Pollardhaven,t played up  to their potential of late.? Even  with the 
bad game last week against Miami, the Bills still rank # 5 over the  last 
four week in passing yards allowed per game.? 

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Defensive Slam Dunks:? These games heavily favor the  Defense

Tampa Bay Passing  Game vs Miami Defense??  Don,t start your  passing game 
guys against the Dolphins.?  CBs Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain just shut 
people down.? Especially a QB like Shaun King who,s  not 100% healthy in 
addition to being just an adequate QB.? Keyshawn Johnson is almost always 
worth  a start just for the showmanship but I,m not excited about Tampa 
throwing the  ball here.

Washington Passing  Game vs Cowboy Defense?? Brad  Johnson,sprobably taken  
his last snap as a Redskin, especially after he suggested he,d done so.? That 
means big armed  Jeff  Georgetakes the  helm.?? He,ll likely face a  Cowboy 
defense that,s tough against the pass for one simple reason:? they,re awful 
defending the run and  teams just choose to run all over them.?  Look for 
Stephen Davis  to wear it  out.? When George does throw, I  think James  
Thrashis the best  option.?  Albert  Connellwill likely start  but Thrash 
makes plenty of plays.?  TE  Stephen Alexanderis probably worth  a shot as is 
pass catching FB Larry  Centers.

San Diego Passing  Game vs Raven Defense?? Ryan Leafand company get  the 
&honor8 of facing the # 3 ranked defense over the past 4 weeks in passing  
yards allowed per game.? It should  be interesting.? Leaf will be  throwing 
to TE Freddie  Jonesand  WR Curtis  Conway.? Jeff Graham  suffered a mouth  
injury last week and may need dental surgery.? It,s probably just as well as 
this  matchup is looking very sketchy for  Leaf.
Arizona  Passing Game vs Jaguar Defense??? This could get ugly all  around.? 
Jacksonville ranks # 4 over  the last four weeks in passing yards allowed per 
game.? And Arizona,s Jake  Plummeris nursing bad ribs.? We saw with  Charlie 
Batch last week that it,s hard for a team to keep a QB in the game if  he,s 
got injured ribs.? David  Bostonis playing well lately and Frank  Sanders has 
 been awful.? I,m not excited about  any of them for this week.

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