10  October, 2001
To: James D. Steffes,  Enron
From: Enron  Forum
Content: Intellibridge has compiled the following report  in response to your request.
Request:
What  would be the amount of installed capacity of each of the FERC RTOs (assuming  Californiais ultimately in the  Western RTO) and what is the total peak demand in each  area?
 
Response:
 
Intellibridge estimates the following peak demand and installed capacity  figures for each of the four proposed FERC RTO regions based on the most recent  complete data available.  Peak load  data sets that were deemed complete and reliable are for 1999. Installed  capacity information is from forecasts made by NERC for 2001.
 
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 In response to FERC  Order 2000 of 6 January  2000, utilities throughout  the United  Statessubmitted proposals to  form Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) for coordinating and controlling  electric power grid systems in their area.   FERC responded to these proposals on 12 July 2001, in a series of orders  that made clear the Commission's vision of four large, regional RTOs making up  U.S. bulk power markets.  FERC said  in these orders, "We favor the development of one RTO for the Northeast, one RTO  for the Midwest, one RTO for the Southeast, and one RTO for the  West."
 
Though the eventual shape and scope of the regional RTOs remains in  question, estimates of capacity and peak demand can be made based on groupings  of North American Electricity Reliability Council (NERC) regional councils or  regional ISOs and bulk power markets.   For the purposes of estimating installed capacity and peak load in these  regions, the following groupings of NERC regional councils and ISOs were assumed  to correspond to the four RTOs proposed by  FERC:
 
Northeast:
?         PJM
?         ISO-New England
?         New York ISO
 
Southeast:
?         Southeastern Electric Reliability Council  (SERC)
?         Florida Reliability Coordinating Council  (FRCC)
 
Midwest:
?         Mid-Continent Area Power Pool (MAPP)
?         Mid-American Interconnected Network, Inc.  (MAIN)
?         Southwest Power Pool (SPP)
?         Eastern Central Area Reliability Coordination Agreement  (ECAR)
 
West
?         Western Systems Coordinating Council  (WSCC)
 
Peak Load  Data:
FERC  Form 714 hourly load data were used to calculate coincidental peak load for the  Midwest and Southeast RTOs.  FERC's  most recent, complete set of Form 714 data are for year 1999; FERC is still  collecting data for year 2000.  Year  1999 data were consequently used throughout for the sake of consistency.  Peak demand for the Western RTO was  taken as the 1999 annual peak reported by NERC for the WSCC in its year 2000  "Summer Assessment".  Coincidental  peak demand for the Northeastern RTO was calculated from 1999 hourly load data  available on the PJM, ISO-New England, and New York ISO web sites.
 
Installed  Capacity Data:
NERC  Electricity Supply & Demand for 2001. While some sets of this data for 2001  are estimates, it can be assumed that the Summer 2001 installed capacity data is  reasonably current. Other estimates can be made available. 
 
Sources:
 FERC NERC ISO-New England PJM New York  ISO 
 
For  more information, you may contact David Givens, senior managing analyst, at  202-298-6300, ext. 243, or dgivens@intellibridge.com 
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