Weather Headlines
Tuesday January 22, 2002
The short term forecasts look warm while the medium range looks a lot
colder. Seems like the maps have looked that way since October.
Extremes continue to run rampant across the Northern Hemisphere, but their
locations remain locked in place. There is a huge pool of arctic air to the
North that I continue to keep a weary eye on. It could break off and come
down at any time. But, this has been prematurely predicted so often this
winter, I refuse to go along with it now. That stance has worked rather
well the last few weeks. Conditions immediately in front of us seem easier
to forecast. In general, a trough will remain in the West with a ridge in
the East. This keeps the West below normal and the East above. At the same
time, this does remain a fairly active pattern stormwise. The next one will
get cranked up the next 24-48 hours in the Southern Plains and head for the
Mid-Atlantic. This is mainly a rain event (heavy in some cases), but it can
still get cold enough for snow on the Northern fringe. Another strong
system will come into the Pacific NW later this week. With the trough and
cold air in place, this will likely be a hefty snowmaker inland with heavy
coastal rains down to Central California.
The models are doing their usual cool down in the 6-10 day period with most
of it on the tail end. The MRF leads the charge with very cold air well
South. The European and Canadian are less aggressive. However, they too
suggest it will turn colder. In fairness, it probably will considering the
well above normal values that will be in place early on. All of the models
have moderate intensity surface highs covering Western Canada by Day 10. If
the trend were to continue Southward in later runs this week, I would be
more inclined to buy it. Until then, it is my continued belief that any
arctic air would be confined to the far North and be short in duration. As
has been the case numerous times this winter, it won't show up until just
after this period.
For the period Tuesday January 22 through Saturday January 26, expect the
following temperature trends:
Average 4 to 6-degrees below normal: Intermountain West, Desert SW,
California...
Average 1 to 3- degrees below normal: Pacific NW...
Average 1 to 3-degrees above normal: Southern Plains and Rockies...
Average 4 to 6-degrees above normal: Gulf Coast, Southeast, Central Plains,
Mississippi Valley, Northern and Central Rockies...
Average 7 to 12-degrees above normal: Northern Plains, Great Lakes, Ohio
Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast...
Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist APB Energy / True Quote