Rod/Stan, Bob Butts requested an update on a "best case" scenerio for PGG
earnings for 2001(see attached).  We're discussing this with Bob today. 
Please call if you have questions about this info.


-----Original Message----- 
Date:  05/18/2001  01:48 pm  (Friday)  
From:  Kirk Stevens 
To:  Bob Butts
CC:  DARRINGTON OUTAMA;  Jim Piro
Subject:  PGG Best Case Forecast

Bob, per your conversations with Jim Piro, attached is a "best case" forecast of PGG earnings for 2001 if net variable power costs were to improve by 2 standard deviations.  I'll give you a call to see if you can discuss this today (or set up a time to discuss on Monday). Note that just as we could over-perform to this level, changes in price curves, load changes, or power plant operations could result in earnings worse than our current estimate numbers (Volitility's the word)

Also attached are some sensitivities for Q2 earnings that we're dealing with that may reduce our current forecast or offset potential benefits of us over-performing on net variable power costs.