Syncrasy - Weather for Business
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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]      Syncrasy, LLC?    713.228.8470 Off   713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue     Suite 1314      Houston, TX 77002    www.syncrasy.com      Sales:                   713.228.4407   Development Offices:   970.247.4139 Off   970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue       Suite 221        Durango, CO 81301    		 [IMAGE]   Complementary version of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.     - If you would like to receive this product first thing in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for subscription rates or send an email to sales@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com    - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to subscribe_tradersummary@syncrasy.com         Data last updated  Wednesday, Jun 06, 2001 at 09:36AM EST    Commentary last updated  Wednesday, Jun 06, 2001 at 09:47AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'     Today: Summary Forecast for Wed, Jun  6, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  74  +2  ERCOT(SP)  89  -1  FRCC(SE)  88  +1  MAAC(NE)  74  -1  MAIN(CTR)  72  +1  MAPP(HP)  68  -2  NPCC(NE)  71  +1  SERC(SE)  85  +1  SPP(SP)  82  NC  WSCC(NW)  69  +1  WSCC(RK)  75  -1  WSCC(SW)  85  -1      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   68 69 66 64 76 81 86 83  Max    74 74 73 69 78 87 88 86  Min     64 65 60 58 70 77 84 78  Range  10 9 13 11 8 10 4 8  StD-P  2.6 2.4 4.1 3.5 2.0 3.4 1.4 1.8  Count  9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9    Day 1-5 Discussion:  For the second year in a row, early season Tropical development takes place in the Gulf of Mexico. We were acutely aware of t-storms yesterday along the Texas and Louisiana coasts and then in the afternoon Allison was born. She came ashore last night in SE Texas and is located north of Houston. The surface circulation should disappear later today, but the remnants may hang around for quite sometime. Some models suggest this well into next week. Combine this with a front that approaches from the North and stalls over the region towards the weekend and you have a recipe for very heavy rains. In the extreme, you could see some areas get well over a foot of rain the next several days in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. The rest of the Gulf Coast into the SE and Tennessee Valley should see significant rain as well from these features.  ! The rest of the short term forecast appears as advertised earlier in the week. A cold front in the Midwest now gets to the East coast by the weekend. This brings more scattered Showers and T-storms to areas East of the Mississippi. Another dip in the jet stream follows this front for the East this weekend into early next week. The trough is not expected to be as strong as the last several so the air will not be as cool. Still, it looks like low AC demand for much of the East into early next week and lower than normal demand in the South due to the heavy rain threat. The ridge reforms later this week in the Interior West. Warmer than normal temperatures spread from the Desert SW into the Rockies and Plains. Temperatures should remain moderate from the Pacific NW into the Northern Rockies.    Tomorrow: Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun  7, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  75  +2  ERCOT(SP)  87  -5  FRCC(SE)  89  +1  MAAC(NE)  75  +7  MAIN(CTR)  74  NC  MAPP(HP)  73  -1  NPCC(NE)  73  +3  SERC(SE)  82  -2  SPP(SP)  82  -3  WSCC(NW)  75  +1  WSCC(RK)  78  -1  WSCC(SW)  87  -1      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   70 73 67 70 78 79 85 85  Max    75 78 74 75 81 85 88 87  Min     66 68 60 61 74 75 82 80  Range  9 10 14 13 7 10 6 8  StD-P  2.8 2.8 5.2 3.2 2.1 2.7 1.6 1.9  Count  9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9   Day 3: Summary Forecast for Fri, Jun  8, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  76  NC  ERCOT(SP)  88  -5  FRCC(SE)  88  NC  MAAC(NE)  79  +1  MAIN(CTR)  77  NC  MAPP(HP)  77  +2  NPCC(NE)  72  -1  SERC(SE)  83  -1  SPP(SP)  84  -1  WSCC(NW)  75  -2  WSCC(RK)  82  +1  WSCC(SW)  87  NC      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   72 76 66 68 81 79 84 85  Max    77 79 75 75 85 84 87 87  Min     67 74 62 65 78 76 82 84  Range  10 5 13 11 7 8 5 4  StD-P  2.9 1.7 4.8 3.7 1.9 2.7 1.7 1.4  Count  7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7   Day 4: Summary Forecast for Sat, Jun  9, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  77  +2  ERCOT(SP)  91  -2  FRCC(SE)  88  -1  MAAC(NE)  77  NC  MAIN(CTR)  79  +3  MAPP(HP)  80  +3  NPCC(NE)  73  NC  SERC(SE)  85  -1  SPP(SP)  87  +2  WSCC(NW)  72  -1  WSCC(RK)  85  +2  WSCC(SW)  84  -1      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   73 80 65 67 83 79 86 83  Max    79 83 74 72 86 85 90 85  Min     70 78 61 63 80 76 83 81  Range  9 5 13 10 6 9 7 3  StD-P  2.3 2.0 3.9 3.3 2.1 2.3 2.4 1.4  Count  6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6   Day 5: Summary Forecast for Sun, Jun 10, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  78  +4  ERCOT(SP)  93  -1  FRCC(SE)  89  -1  MAAC(NE)  78  +2  MAIN(CTR)  82  +4  MAPP(HP)  81  +3  NPCC(NE)  74  +3  SERC(SE)  87  +1  SPP(SP)  90  +3  WSCC(NW)  67  -1  WSCC(RK)  83  +1  WSCC(SW)  83  -1      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   73 78 65 58 78 79 84 78  Max    81 86 75 67 85 87 93 83  Min     63 63 60 48 57 71 69 58  Range  18 23 16 19 28 16 24 25  StD-P  3.7 5.9 3.4 5.5 7.1 2.9 5.1 6.6  Count  6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6    Day 6-10 Discussion:  There appears to be considerable disagreement in the models today with regards to the longer range. With that in mind, I will leave my predictions from earlier in the week intact until I see evidence from the actual weather that a change is in order. I will leave it to others to flip-flop daily depending upon what a particular model does. Most of the modelling shows evidence of troughs near both coasts with a ridge in the middle. The disagreements are on strength and size. The American models take on more of a status quo look with the potential for another deep Great Lakes/Northeast trough late next week. Granted this has been the pattern the last month, but it seems overdone for Mid June. The European and Canadian models meanwhile expand the Continental U.S. Ridge more than I am comfortable with. The European in particular may have some forec! asters screaming heatwave next week. Given the recent heavy rains in most of the Eastern two thirds of the country, this too is overdone. So, a compromise still looks to be the best solution at this point. Therefore, I see a definite warm up in the five day period, but anything much above normal will have a tough time getting East of the Mississippi.    Day 6: Summary Forecast for Mon, Jun 11, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  82  +5  ERCOT(SP)  93  NC  FRCC(SE)  89  NC  MAAC(NE)  81  +5  MAIN(CTR)  83  +3  MAPP(HP)  78  +1  NPCC(NE)  75  +2  SERC(SE)  89  +3  SPP(SP)  90  +2  WSCC(NW)  64  -5  WSCC(RK)  77  -1  WSCC(SW)  82  -1      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   76 78 67 57 80 82 89 81  Max    81 83 77 64 83 88 93 83  Min     74 72 63 50 77 79 87 80  Range  7 11 14 14 6 9 6 3  StD-P  2.2 4.5 4.1 5.6 2.4 2.7 1.7 1.1  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 7: Summary Forecast for Tue, Jun 12, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  82  +2  ERCOT(SP)  93  NC  FRCC(SE)  89  NC  MAAC(NE)  83  +2  MAIN(CTR)  80  +1  MAPP(HP)  73  -2  NPCC(NE)  78  +1  SERC(SE)  88  +1  SPP(SP)  87  NC  WSCC(NW)  69  -2  WSCC(RK)  72  -4  WSCC(SW)  81  NC      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   76 74 68 61 74 82 89 80  Max    78 84 79 69 83 88 92 82  Min     74 65 61 58 66 79 88 80  Range  4 19 19 10 17 9 4 2  StD-P  1.5 6.9 5.2 3.0 6.3 2.6 1.2 0.7  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 8: Summary Forecast for Wed, Jun 13, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  79  +4  ERCOT(SP)  92  +4  FRCC(SE)  90  +11  MAAC(NE)  82  +8  MAIN(CTR)  76  NC  MAPP(HP)  70  -3  NPCC(NE)  78  +9  SERC(SE)  88  +9  SPP(SP)  82  -8  WSCC(NW)  72  +7  WSCC(RK)  73  +2  WSCC(SW)  82  +4      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   75 70 70 67 74 82 87 80  Max    81 78 79 72 78 88 89 82  Min     69 61 64 64 70 80 84 79  Range  12 18 15 8 9 8 6 4  StD-P  4.8 7.2 4.8 2.1 3.3 2.3 2.5 0.9  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 9: Summary Forecast for Thu, Jun 14, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  68  -6  ERCOT(SP)  85  NC  FRCC(SE)  79  +1  MAAC(NE)  74  -2  MAIN(CTR)  64  -9  MAPP(HP)  62  -6  NPCC(NE)  67  -2  SERC(SE)  79  +1  SPP(SP)  75  -10  WSCC(NW)  74  +6  WSCC(RK)  74  +3  WSCC(SW)  80  NC      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   72 71 70 73 76 80 86 81  Max    81 76 72 74 77 82 89 82  Min     64 68 69 71 74 79 83 80  Range  16 8 3 3 3 3 6 2  StD-P  7.6 3.5 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.5 2.9 0.7  Count  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4   Day 10: Summary Forecast for Fri, Jun 15, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  61  -8  ERCOT(SP)  84  NC  FRCC(SE)  78  NC  MAAC(NE)  70  -2  MAIN(CTR)  61  -8  MAPP(HP)  62  -5  NPCC(NE)  65  -3  SERC(SE)  77  -1  SPP(SP)  77  NC  WSCC(NW)  80  +7  WSCC(RK)  78  +4  WSCC(SW)  80  -2      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   64 63 67 65 67 76 78 70  Max    68 69 69 80 80 77 83 80  Min     61 58 67 49 52 74 73 59  Range  7 11 2 31 29 4 10 21  StD-P  3.2 5.5 0.8 14.8 13.7 1.5 4.7 10.1  Count  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]  	
		 [IMAGE]   909 Texas Ave., Suite 1314      713.228.8470  Main      www.syncrasy.com    835 Main Ave., Suite 221      970.247.4139 Main    Houston, TX  77002   713.228.4147  Fax   Durango, CO  81301    970.247.7951 Fax    713.228.4407  Sales       If you prefer to not receive future e-mails regarding Syncrasy Products and News Updates,   please REPLY to this message and indicate REMOVE in the subject field.