Trevor,

This e-mail is attempting to answer the request made by you and Scott a few weeks ago. 

Attached are my projected balance for 2004 NOx SIP CALL.  It is based on numbers from EEA (environment consultants), EPA website, NOx SIP Call model, and new generation database.  The confidence level for overall balance is not that high.  The OTR states only need to reduce 15% from 2001 to 2003 to be in compliance.  They have some SCRs already built and the plans for the other SCRs needed.  The non-OTR states are far more dirty than the OTR states.  The big question mark is the cost of technology that will be available for the 2004 states.  I believe that there will be a demand for allowances.  I believe the NOx SIP Call market to be a short at this point.  People think it is worse than it really is.

Also, I can make a price forecast.  The confidence level would be low on the price forecast.  What else do you want here?  

 

Mike Taylor