--------------------------vince kaminski


-----Original Message-----
From: Granville Paules <Paules@aspentech.com>@ENRON [NOTES:Granville Paules <Paules@aspentech.com>@ENRON]
To: 'vkamins@enron.com' <vkamins@enron.com>
Sent: Thu Jan 03 13:55:01 2002
Subject: Price Dynamics and Risk Management in the Energy Markets

Mr. Kaminski,

Greetings. I work for Aspen Technology Inc. www.aspentech.com
We have not met, but a colleague of mine forwarded a copy of your
presentation on Price Dynamics in the Energy Markets from the SIAM
conference last April and am writing to you to encourage you to consider
making a presentation at Aspen's corporate world conference Aspen World 2002
in October in Washington DC on this topic as well as the broader topic of
Risk assessment and management in the energy markets. I know this seems a
little strange making a "cold-call" in this manner, but I am reaching out in
the community of Risk and Uncertainty management in the Supply Chain,
Process and Energy markets to identify and solicit compelling speakers.
AspenTech does not have a traditionally strong or well developed business or
application layer in this realm, but, as our enterprise-wide reach and
activities in planning, forecasting and supply chain have grown and
integrated, I and the technology drivers in the company have been
cultivating a demand and recognition for risk management and pricing
activities to BE the next logical dimension to our growth and technology.
Therefore, the session I am chairing (see the abstract below) will be one
intended to educate, entice, and compel our clientele, business partners and
staff on the business value, technology and mathematical and modeling
technique. I would be happy to elaborate on the intended audience and
opportunity for the conference. Please contact me at your earliest
convenience by email or phone at the numbers below to discuss things if you
think it would be a possibility or, if you would like more information on
the context of the work and subject matter in AspenTech's core businesses.

Thanks in advance for your time.

Sincerely,
Skip Paules

Uncertainty and Risk Management in Supply Chain and Process Modeling

This session will examine the assessment and quantification of uncertainties
and risk in the supply chain and process modeling arena. The emphasis is on
the modeling and enterprise business process aspects. Topics should include:
point solution methods, such as design and real-time optimization
application at the process level; planning and scheduling applications; as
well as enterprise level solution strategies that balance forecasting,
supply chain, planning, scheduling and operations. Commodities trading
models, strategies and techniques are also included in this scope. What
developments in the applications and theory of the field will allow us to
take collections of deterministic modeling tools to the next strategic level
where objectives for capital projects, operations, and supply chain
optimization models incorporate not only economics, but also value-at-risk
and/or robustness elements to create more broadly applicable or hedged
strategies to achieve the desired goals.

Possible presentation topics will include:

*	Uncertain supply, demand in planning and scheduling
*	Robust plant-wide optimization (real-time)
*	Robust control
*	Value-at-risk (VAR) quantification in modeling applications
*	Dynamic hedging in commodities trading (e.g. energy markets)
*	Flexible design and synthesis
*	Model sensitivies to uncertain parameters or demand
*	General algorithmic and modeling strategies for incorporating Risk,
Sensitivity, and/or Uncertainty

_________________________________________
Granville (Skip) E. Paules IV, Ph.D.
Principal Technologist - Advanced Technology Group
AspenTech
process. to the power of e.
Ten Canal Park
Cambridge, MA
02141-2201 USA
617-949-1501 (Phone)
617-949-1030 (Fax)
email:  mailto:granville.paules@aspentech.com
Web:  http://www.aspentech.com

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what direction we are moving: To reach the port of heaven, we must sail
sometimes with the wind and sometimes against it - but we must sail, and not
drift, nor lie at anchor.     -- Oliver Wendell Holmes

It's important to dream, and to live your dream. I dream everyday. At one
moment or another, you have to live your dream. You have to do it, to make
it real.     -- Bernard Stamm, transatlantic monohull sailing record holder