FYI

-----Original Message-----
From: webmaster@cera.com [mailto:webmaster@cera.com]
Sent: Friday, October 05, 2001 11:09 AM
To: clients@cera.com
Subject: Weakening Demand To Put the Squeeze on Spot Refining Margins -
CERA Decision Brief 



Title: Refined Products Markets--The Fallout from September 11 	
URL(s):	

http://www20.cera.com/eprofile?u=35&m=2717;


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WEAKENING DEMAND TO PUT THE SQUEEZE ON SPOT REFINING MARGINS

Oil demand growth is slowing dramatically in the aftermath of the September 11 
terrorist attacks. The combination of sluggish GDP growth and a sharp decrease 
in commercial air travel will in CERA's view result in declines in quarterly 
oil demand in fourth quarter 2001 and first quarter 2002. Spot refining margins 
are expected to trend downward, with the possibility of periods of upward 
volatility. Key factors that will influence the path of margins for the balance 
of this year and into 2002 include

*  weakening supply-demand fundamentals, as weak economies and reduced 
commercial air travel drive down demand

*  OPEC production policy and its effect on inventory levels

*  supply security concerns, including perceived risks of disruptions to 
physical supply that could result from new attacks or military action

**end**

Follow above URL for complete report (9 printed pages).




E-mail Category: Decision Brief                                    
CERA Knowledge Area(s): Global Oil


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On September 17, CERA Chairman, Daniel Yergin, led a Global 
Client Conference Call discussion on the potential economic 
and energy industry fallout from the recent terrorist attacks 
on New York and Washington DC.

The playback of this conference call is now available at on the 
web at http://www.cera.com/highlights/teleconf_20010917/
or via telephone at: 1-888-203-1112 (within the United States) 
or 719-457-0820 (outside the United States). Please use 
confirmation number 784004 to access the call playback. 
The playback is available until October 17, 2001. 
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CERA's Autumn 2001 Roundtable event dates and agendas 
are now available at http://www20.cera.com/event
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