Link to www.ze.com  [IMAGE]  [IMAGE]  [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Forward Price Views for Competitive Energy Markets  [IMAGE] 	
  [IMAGE]   Dear Jubran,   Recognizing the pronounced volatility and uncertainty  in the energy industry, ZE PowerGroup has developed processes and  tools to facilitate dynamic trading and risk management. One of  the foremost tools required for competitive operation is the availability  of representative forward natural gas and power views for the various  market hubs.   Given that generation resource development, price behavior and  industry responsiveness has been significantly outside of historic  norms established during the extended period of regulation, and  given recent world events have resulted in greater uncertainty in  the economy it is critical that an organization be able to probabilistically  predict future prices, with some degree of accuracy.  The market is always asking itself questions like:   Should I commit to a deal now or wait?  For how much and for how long should I commit? What is the impact of this transaction on my portfolio? How do market events impact near, mid and long term pricing? How long will the price remain at the current level?  A forward view is a prerequisite to manage and optimize on an energy  portfolio in competitive markets. ZE PowerGroup provides short,  mid and long-term Forward Price Views. The Forward Price Views are  developed using sophisticated, top-down market simulation models  that are readily customizable and adaptable in size and scope to  any region in North America. The Forward Price Models have been  designed using the key drivers and fundamental parameters of the  natural gas and electrical power industries in combination with  econometric techniques and expert judgment. The value of the model  is in its ability to extract and quantify the expert judgment.  The difference between the ZE PowerGroup Forward Price Model and  other models is that of a top-down market simulation versus bottom-up  generation modeling. The bottom-up generation model does not always  account for market behavior and assumes that generation is predominantly  economically. These modes make little or no allowance for market  power, inefficiencies, gaming or other operational or unique market  factors.  ZE PowerGroup developed their first price views in 1996. The Forward  Price Model has performed well as a guiding tool; the views created  from the models have consistently predicted the direction of price  movement in the markets. It was one of the few models that predicted  rapid and consistent price increases after deregulation when the  industry consensus was that prices would retreat. Clients who have  incorporated the price views into their strategic planning have  reaped significant benefits and mitigated price risks; fairing better  than their counterparts.  The Forward Price Model can be coupled with the Market Monitoring  subscription, which adds value through targeted intelligence required  to optimize positioning in uncertain and volatile markets.  ZE PowerGroup strives to provide timely and required intelligence  at reasonable cost.  For more information on ZE PowerGroup's Forward Price Views  or on subscribing to a monthly market monitoring service, please  visit our web page at www.ze.com ,  contact us by email at paul@ze.com   or by phone at 604-244-1469.   [IMAGE] [IMAGE] [IMAGE] 	
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