-----Original Message-----
From: 	"Michael SCHILMOELLER" <Michael_Schilmoeller@pgn.com>@ENRON [mailto:IMCEANOTES-+22Michael+20SCHILMOELLER+22+20+3CMichael+5FSchilmoeller+40pgn+2Ecom+3E+40ENRON@ENRON.com] 
Sent:	Tuesday, July 24, 2001 1:46 PM
To:	vkamins@enron.com; vshanbh@enron.com
Subject:	Fwd: Re: Request from a research fellow in Houston

. let's try again...
(see attached Re: Request....)
Date: Tue, 24 Jul 2001 11:31:24 -0700
From: "Michael SCHILMOELLER" <Michael_Schilmoeller@pgn.com>
To: <ENE.Kiatsupaibul_Seksan@pgn.com>
Cc: <vince.kaminski@enron.com>,	"Boo Seng-Aroun" <BOO_SENG-AROUN@pgn.com>,	"Brett Sims" <BRETT_SIMS@pgn.com>,	"Chris Dieterle" <CHRIS_DIETERLE@pgn.com>,	"David Hunker" <David_Hunker@pgn.com>,	"Garet Shaw" <Garet_Shaw@pgn.com>,	"Kevin Nordt" <KEVIN_NORDT@pgn.com>,	"Mark Litterman" <MARK_LITTERMAN@pgn.com>,	"Marty Howard" <MARTY_HOWARD@pgn.com>,	"MIKE NIMAN" <MIKE_NIMAN@pgn.com>,	"Mike Oshea" <MIKE_OSHEA@pgn.com>,	"Pinnamaneni Krishnarao" <Pinnamaneni_Krishnarao@pgn.com>,	"Shinya Ichikawa" <SHINYA_ICHIKAWA@pgn.com>,	"Vasant Shanbhogue" <Vasant_Shanbhogue@pgn.com>,	"Vince Kaminski" <Vince_J_Kaminski@pgn.com>
Subject: Re: Request from a research fellow in Houston
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Seksan,

Attached is a paper describing my algorithm for calculating expected hourly dispatch from monthly on-peak power, off-peak power, and gas prices, and their associated volatilities and covariance.  I have been promising this to folks for awhile now, so your request spurred me to action.

I will send later a copy of Lydia, our workbook program for distributing hourly prices from scalars, consistent with on- and off-peak monthly prices, and recognizing about 70+ reasonability constraints.  It is actually an exhaustive search optimization program.  The disversity in hourly prices is optimized.  I understand this is not something you are immediately interested in, so there is no particular urgency to get it to you.  (I need to update the documentation a bit.)

Incidently, you need to have Microsoft Equation Editor 3.0 installed in Word to properly read this document.  I believe it is part of the standard Office 97 install, so there shouldn't be any problem.  Nevertheless, if you run into problems viewing the document, take a look at your Word references.

Hope this is useful,
Michael

>>> Kiatsupaibul, Seksan 07/23/01 11:48AM >>>
Dear Michael:

Houston, we have some problems.  I am a research member, working with Krishna and Osman supporting EES.  Now we have some projects about load curtailment options.  They would like to have volatility for power price on the hourly basis.  Attending the meeting last Thursday, we heard that you have written up about the methodology how to build such an hourly volatility.  Osman let me contact you requesting for the model.  I would appreciate if you can provide me one.  By the way, if this is not the Michael, sorry to bother you.

Best regards,
Seksan.

 - Expected_CF.doc 
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Date: Tue, 24 Jul 2001 11:31:00 -0700
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To: <Michael_Schilmoeller@pgn.com>
Subject: Undeliverable: Re: Request from a research fellow in Houston
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Subject: Re: Request from a research fellow in Houston
Sent: 7/24/2001 11:31:00

The following recipient(s) could not be reached:

Enron.ENE.Vasant Shanbhogue 7/24/2001 11:31:00
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