Riordan edges out Davis in Field Poll: A survey finds lingering damage from the governor's handling of the energy crisis.
By Amy Chance
Bee Political Editor
(Published Sept. 26, 2001) 
Gov. Gray Davis survived the summer without the widespread power blackouts his opponents predicted, but voters remained dissatisfied with his job performance and disinclined to re-elect him, a Field Poll released Tuesday found. 
The poll showed Davis narrowly behind in a trial general election matchup against former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, 45 percent to 42 percent. 
Riordan's strength in Los Angeles County -- rare for a Republican candidate -- as well as lingering damage to Davis from California's energy crisis were factors in the findings, said the poll's managing director, Mark DiCamillo. 
"It's an interesting situation for a sitting governor," he said. "It's very unusual for a sitting governor to be denied re-election, but here we have a unique candidate coming out of a Democratic stronghold. And also we have this issue that is kind of hanging around the neck of the governor that the public is not very pleased about, and that's the energy and the electricity crisis." 
In a hypothetical Republican primary, Riordan led by a large margin over Secretary of State Bill Jones, 46 percent to 19 percent. Businessman Bill Simon trailed with 5 percent of the vote, while 30 percent was undecided. 
The poll surveyed 1,003 Californians, including 722 registered voters, Sept. 7-10 and is subject to an overall error margin of 3.2 percent. 
Davis political adviser Garry South said reporting poll results taken before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the East Coast was "horribly misleading." 
"These kinds of watershed events that shake the national psyche always have an effect on job approval," he said. "These kinds of things have effects on the way people feel about incumbents in general." 
DiCamillo said he found it notable, however, that views of Davis' performance continued to lag even as voters worried less about the electricity crisis. 
In May, at the peak of concern about potential power blackouts, voters said they disapproved of Davis' performance, 49 percent to 42 percent. In the latest survey, they continued to disapprove, 47 percent to 41 percent. 
Voters also said they were not inclined to re-elect Davis, 50 percent to 43 percent. 
"Now we're in a situation where the energy crisis mentality has receded, yet the public's image of the governor has not changed," DiCamillo said. "He has not benefited from the easing of public concern about the issue and is in the same situation that he found himself back in May. 
"No matter what the political temper of the times internationally, there will be issues that are particular to the governor's race. This issue is what the public has focused their attention on in evaluating Davis, and it's still negative." 
DiCamillo said he also was struck by the fact that the poll found Riordan leading among voters in Los Angeles County, 47 percent to 43 percent. He said the survey showed similar results in May. Los Angeles County accounts for one-quarter of the state's electorate, and Democrats typically carry it and the Bay Area by large margins, making up for losses in virtually every other area of the state. 
Riordan adviser Dan Schnur said the numbers pose a strategic difficulty for Davis. 
"It's clear from this poll result that the voters who know Dick Riordan best support him most," he said. "Unless Gray Davis plans on winning the Bay Area by a voice vote, there's no way he can get re-elected unless he turns L.A. County around in a very big way." 
South said Riordan, who held a nonpartisan office in Los Angeles, will fare far differently in a statewide partisan contest. And he recalled that then-Gov. Pete Wilson was trailing Democrat Kathleen Brown by 23 points as he prepared in 1993 for re-election. 
"We all know how that turned out," he said. "A sitting California governor hasn't been defeated for a second term since 1942." 
The Bee's Amy Chance can be reached at (916) 326-5535 or achance@sacbee.com <mailto:achance@sacbee.com>.