Weather Headlines
Monday November 12, 2001

 *** Southern stream becoming more active. Northern stream still showing
signs of change Thanksgiving week. ***

     A healthy Pacific coast storm may spread some rain as far south as the
LA Basin today. This is a compact storm that over the next couple of days
will track towards the Desert SW and Four corners area. Eventually this
could lead to moisture for Texas, the Gulf coast, and Florida. It is not a
pattern changer though. In fact, a large high continues to cover most of
the rest of the country. What little cold there is now in the NE will exit
quickly and very mild air that has been in the Plains recently will surge
East. In a raw sense, many areas may be as warm this week as last. From a
departure from normal point of view, numbers will be much higher, getting
into double digits in the Midwest.

      The 6-10 day period remains the target of a pattern change. This
alleged change has been consistently pushed back a day on each model run
for the last week. By last Wednesday, I stopped buying the day to day stuff
and argued a change around Thanksgiving Day. It may be a day or two after
that, but still appears to be in the ballpark. If one looks at what may be
coming in comparison to the last 2-3 weeks, it looks very significant and
much colder. If, however you compare it to a late November normal, it does
not look very cold. The forecast set up is for a ridge to form over the
Western U.S. which promotes a trough in the Central and/or Eastern U.S.
This happens in response to changes occurring in the Pacific. Overall, this
is looking like an overhyped event right now in my opinion as I am not
convinced there will be significant arctic air coming into the trough, nor
am I convinced it is nothing more than a quick event. Most of it is still
expected just after this period, so my 6-10 day outlook is still a warmer
than normal one.

For the period Monday November 12 through Friday November 16, expect the
following temperature trends:

Average 1 to 3-degrees below normal: Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast ?

Average 1 to 3-degrees above normal: Gulf Coast, California, Pacific NW?

Average 4 to 6-degrees above normal: Great Lakes, Ohio and Mississippi
Valleys, Southern Rockies and Plains, Intermountain West?

Average 7 to 12-degrees above normal: Northern and Central Rockies and
Plains?

Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist   APB Energy / True Quote