DJ REPEAT:Ercot Sees 56,373 MW Summer Peak,2% Below '00 Peak

DJ Ercot: New Units Will Boost Supply to 65,064 MW

DJ Ercot: 21% Summer Reserve If Normal Weather

DJ Ercot Summer -2: New 345-Kv Line To Relieve Congestion


By Eileen O'Grady
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--After several tight summers, new generation and a new
transmission line in Texas should push the power region's summer reserve
above
20%, according to a projections from the Electric Reliability Council of
Texas.

According to a summer assessment study compiled by Ercot, utilities and
power
suppliers forecast a peak load demand of 56,373 megawatts this summer, 2% MW
under the record-shattering 2000 peak of 57,606 MW.

The lower peak forecast assumes a return to normal summer temperatures.
Last
summer, Texas saw record heat amid a drought that lasted 84 days in parts of
the
state. That increased power demand to record levels.

Ercot's projected peak of 54,817 MW for summer 2000 wound up being 5%
under
the actual peak seen Aug. 31.

Spot power prices jumped above $100 per megawatt-hour in four brief spikes
last summer, twice in May and again in July and August.

While drought conditions have eased since last summer, the report warns
that
Ercot's peak could jump to 58,550 MW if forecasts provided by investor-owned
utilities haven't included a possible shift in demand from customers
participating in a retail pilot project that begins June 1.

Even so, more than 3,350 MW of new generation is expected to be online
compared with last summer, pushing Ercot's net capacity resources to 65,064
MW,
according to the report.

The Ercot assessment says the new generation should keep the region's
reserve
margin above 20% in August when demand is expected to peak.

The Ercot report, however, includes 1,730 MW of "border" generation that
can
be sold into Ercot or into the Southwest Power Pool.

A separate report from the Texas Public Utility Commission staff pointed
out
several additional merchant generating plants slated to come online this
summer
in Ercot.

The PUC staff report paints a more bullish forecast for demand. The PUC
said
coincident peak demand for power in Ercot grew at a compound rate of 4.3%
from
1995 to 2000.

Total annual energy consumption in Ercot grew by nearly 7.5% from 1999 to
2000, according to the PUC.

The 21% reserve margin in August is twice the amount seen last summer. It
includes 2,870 MW of interruptible demand, slightly below last summer's
3,000 MW
of available load that could be curtailed.

Ercot transmission constraints are expected to be reduced dramatically
this
summer as an additional 345-kilovolt line running from Limestone power
station
to the Watermill switchyard is expected to be in service this month,
alleviating
the south-to-north congestion seen in the last two summers.

Additional lines are in the planning stages to relieve the west-to-east
flow
from Morgan Creek.

On June 1, Ercot will become a single control area as the region moves
toward
full retail competition beginning Jan. 1.

The current interregional transfer limit is 785 MW across the state's two
direct-current ties with SPP although there is expected to be some
limitation
this summer due to a breaker problem near the east DC tie.

Because Ercot lacks synchronous interconnection with the rest of the U.S.
power grid, the region has limited ability to import electricity in times of
high demand.

Ercot is a group of interconnected utilities that serves about 85% of the
power load in the state.
-By Eileen O'Grady; Dow Jones Newswires, 713-547-9213;
eileen.ogrady@dowjones.com <mailto:eileen.ogrady@dowjones.com>


(END) Dow Jones Newswires 01-05-01

1546GMT

(AP-DJ-05-01-01 1546GMT)
:SUBJECT: EUTL DI4 TX
Copyright (c) 2001 Dow Jones and Company, Inc.
Received by NewsEDGE/LAN: 5/1/01 11:40 AM