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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  Houston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   Development Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      	  	 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncrasy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscribe_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this daily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Tuesday, Nov 27, 2001 at 10:34AM EST    Commentary last updated: Tuesday, Nov 27, 2001 at 09:38AM EST  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote     Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMS  or Aquila    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'      Today: Tuesday, November 27, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 57 NC ERCOT(SP) 56 -1 FRCC(SE) 80 NC MAAC(NE) 58 +1 MAIN(CTR) 40 -1 MAPP(HP) 26 NC NPCC(NE) 51 +2 SERC(SE) 70 +1 SPP(SP) 36 -1 WSCC(NW) 40 -1 WSCC(RK) 20 -1 WSCC(SW) 50 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 43 21 50 34 18 69 50 45 Max 47 24 54 40 22 71 53 51 Min 40 17 48 29 14 66 46 40 Range 7 7 6 11 8 5 7 11 StD-P 1.3 1.7 1.4 3.0 1.9 1.6 2.0 2.7 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:  Very stormy pattern for the next few days as Canadian cold interacts with Atlantic warmth.  A series of strong storms are expected to run through the Continental U.S. during the five-day period. One has already produced heavy snows in the Northern Plains and is producing another round of strong t-storms along the Gulf coast. The cold air has pushed far enough South through the Plains to produce some snows into Northern Texas today. This cold is having a difficult time pushing east thanks to a strong SE U.S. ridge. There will be somewhat of an eastern push later in the week, but with a sizeable weakening as it occurs. The next in the series of storms for the West mid to late week appears to be a powerhouse. Rain along the coast will be measured in inches (primarily from San Francisco North), mountain snows! will be in feet and all of this will be accompanied by strong winds. The deep trough in the West will keep temperatures all through the region below to much below normal. The extreme East remains above seasonal norms while the rest of the country sees a fair amount of fluctuation on daily temperatures depending upon their location in respect to these storms.    Tomorrow: Wednesday, November 28, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 48 +1 ERCOT(SP) 43 -4 FRCC(SE) 81 NC MAAC(NE) 58 -1 MAIN(CTR) 36 +2 MAPP(HP) 27 +1 NPCC(NE) 46 +2 SERC(SE) 69 +2 SPP(SP) 31 -2 WSCC(NW) 41 -1 WSCC(RK) 25 -2 WSCC(SW) 49 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 38 21 50 37 20 69 40 45 Max 42 27 54 41 30 71 49 52 Min 34 18 48 32 12 66 32 39 Range 8 9 6 9 18 5 17 13 StD-P 1.3 1.6 1.1 2.4 3.7 1.7 3.0 3.0 Count 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Thursday, November 29, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 57 +7 ERCOT(SP) 54 -2 FRCC(SE) 80 +2 MAAC(NE) 62 NC MAIN(CTR) 41 +1 MAPP(HP) 35 +3 NPCC(NE) 45 -3 SERC(SE) 63 +3 SPP(SP) 40 -4 WSCC(NW) 44 NC WSCC(RK) 39 -3 WSCC(SW) 53 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 29 53 40 30 65 41 47 Max 44 36 59 45 39 70 49 53 Min 35 23 50 38 26 62 33 44 Range 9 13 9 7 13 8 16 9 StD-P 2.7 2.9 2.6 1.7 3.0 1.9 4.8 2.3 Count 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 4: Friday, November 30, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 48 +2 ERCOT(SP) 63 -3 FRCC(SE) 78 +3 MAAC(NE) 58 +3 MAIN(CTR) 43 +2 MAPP(HP) 37 +3 NPCC(NE) 54 +4 SERC(SE) 61 +1 SPP(SP) 51 -2 WSCC(NW) 41 -1 WSCC(RK) 39 +2 WSCC(SW) 53 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 38 35 52 36 31 59 53 48 Max 42 40 58 44 40 67 59 54 Min 35 32 48 33 26 56 46 44 Range 7 8 10 11 14 11 13 10 StD-P 1.8 1.9 3.4 3.0 3.4 3.5 4.7 3.0 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 5: Saturday, December  1, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 47 +2 ERCOT(SP) 65 NC FRCC(SE) 77 +3 MAAC(NE) 54 +1 MAIN(CTR) 42 +2 MAPP(HP) 35 +3 NPCC(NE) 49 NC SERC(SE) 63 +2 SPP(SP) 52 NC WSCC(NW) 44 NC WSCC(RK) 38 -1 WSCC(SW) 56 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 34 44 39 29 60 57 49 Max 42 41 53 44 41 65 63 56 Min 37 31 39 35 24 56 48 46 Range 5 10 14 9 17 9 15 10 StD-P 1.7 3.5 3.6 2.2 4.9 2.8 4.3 3.1 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:   The 6-10 day period it is safe to say will be less active than the short range. That's not much of a stretch though given the magnitude of short-term storms. The overall pattern does not change much with some degree of trough still expected in the West. We will probably beat down the SE ridge somewhat this period. It still looks doubtful to me that we would see any sustainable cold air very far South into the U.S. In fact, the trend in the arctic regions appears to be one of cooling during this period. Typically when this happens, the result is one of warming in the Southern half of Canada. I don't see a major warm up and in fact many areas of the Lower 48 will be cooler than recent weeks. However, in a relative to normal sense, I anticipate most areas to run near or slightly above normal through ! the first week of December.    Day 6: Sunday, December  2, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 45 +5 ERCOT(SP) 65 +1 FRCC(SE) 75 +3 MAAC(NE) 51 +5 MAIN(CTR) 43 +4 MAPP(HP) 39 +6 NPCC(NE) 45 +2 SERC(SE) 60 +3 SPP(SP) 55 +1 WSCC(NW) 43 -1 WSCC(RK) 43 +1 WSCC(SW) 58 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 38 37 45 38 33 60 57 51 Max 41 45 49 43 44 65 63 58 Min 35 32 41 35 29 52 48 48 Range 6 13 8 8 15 13 15 10 StD-P 1.8 3.1 2.3 2.4 4.0 4.5 5.2 3.1 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Monday, December  3, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 46 +5 ERCOT(SP) 68 NC FRCC(SE) 75 +5 MAAC(NE) 50 +5 MAIN(CTR) 44 +3 MAPP(HP) 40 +4 NPCC(NE) 42 +3 SERC(SE) 61 +3 SPP(SP) 57 +1 WSCC(NW) 42 -2 WSCC(RK) 42 -3 WSCC(SW) 56 -3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 40 42 36 35 58 60 49 Max 42 45 47 42 43 64 66 57 Min 39 35 37 33 30 51 56 45 Range 3 10 10 9 13 13 10 12 StD-P 1.1 2.7 3.4 3.0 3.7 4.3 3.7 3.8 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 8: Tuesday, December  4, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 43 +3 ERCOT(SP) 65 +4 FRCC(SE) 67 +3 MAAC(NE) 43 +3 MAIN(CTR) 44 +4 MAPP(HP) 38 +2 NPCC(NE) 39 +6 SERC(SE) 54 NC SPP(SP) 51 +2 WSCC(NW) 36 -3 WSCC(RK) 28 -2 WSCC(SW) 47 -6     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 43 37 41 36 31 60 64 48 Max 48 42 46 42 42 64 69 56 Min 41 34 38 32 26 56 57 45 Range 7 8 8 10 16 8 12 11 StD-P 1.6 2.6 2.1 3.1 4.8 2.7 3.0 3.9 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Wednesday, December  5, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 38 +6 ERCOT(SP) 67 +6 FRCC(SE) 68 +4 MAAC(NE) 41 +1 MAIN(CTR) 36 +7 MAPP(HP) 38 +7 NPCC(NE) 43 +6 SERC(SE) 55 +4 SPP(SP) 56 +7 WSCC(NW) 34 -3 WSCC(RK) 32 -1 WSCC(SW) 47 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 41 36 44 35 29 62 63 48 Max 47 41 47 41 39 66 67 56 Min 37 30 41 32 21 57 55 45 Range 10 11 6 9 18 9 12 11 StD-P 3.5 4.1 1.8 1.9 4.6 3.7 2.8 2.1 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 10: Thursday, December  6, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 43 +15 ERCOT(SP) 66 +4 FRCC(SE) 68 +3 MAAC(NE) 37 +9 MAIN(CTR) 50 +19 MAPP(HP) 45 +14 NPCC(NE) 33 +10 SERC(SE) 55 +3 SPP(SP) 59 +7 WSCC(NW) 32 -5 WSCC(RK) 27 NC WSCC(SW) 44 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 31 41 33 22 59 55 41 Max 47 41 50 36 28 63 64 45 Min 31 20 34 30 14 57 46 38 Range 16 21 16 6 14 6 18 7 StD-P 5.3 7.9 6.2 1.3 5.2 1.9 6.3 2.9 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]