Monday, November 19
 
BCS bowls starting to fill up

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By Brad Edwards
Special to ESPN.com


Two spots are now taken.

Six spots remain.

But the two most enviable positions in the Bowl Championship Series are still up for grabs. The next couple of weekends (maybe three) will decide which teams play for the national title, although the list of potential competitors seems to be shrinking.

Stock up: Oklahoma
The Sooners are just two wins away from Pasadena, as are Nebraska and Miami. The difference, however, is that one of Oklahoma's remaining games is at home against a team with a 3-7 record (Oklahoma State). Rivalry games are often unpredictable, but the Cowboys don't have much of a chance in this one. Not this year. Not against this team.

That puts OU in the Big 12 title game against the winner of Nebraska-Colorado. It's a neutral-field game for a chance to defend their national title, and a team with a loss can't ask for much more than that.

Stock down: BYU
The Cougars keep winning, which of course, is the object of football. But a very weak schedule and some tiny victory margins aren't earning them any respect in the computers. And even though BYU is more interested in gaining admiration from Fiesta Bowl reps than from computer analysts, it won't do them any good unless they reach the top 12 of the final BCS Standings. 

If they do get that high in the rankings, is certainly an advantage to have a fan base within driving distance of Arizona at a time when many Americans are hesitant to fly. But the reality is that the Fiesta Bowl is being played in the traditional Rose Bowl time slot on New Year's Day and will likely have Pac-10 champion Oregon as one of its participants. With that much in place, the Big Ten champ becomes a very attractive opponent -- especially if that team is Michigan. It's too bad for BYU that the Wolverines dodged the upset bullet over the weekend.

Michigan is just one home victory away from being in the BCS pool, and it's very tough to imagine any bowl selecting the Cougars over the Wolverines, given a choice between the two. BYU has a good team, a good name and a loyal following of fans, but they can't match Michigan's drawing power. Unless the Fiesta Bowl believes it needs the Cougars to sell out the stadium, they probably won't be going to Tempe to ring in the New Year. BYU won its national title by beating Michigan in the 1984 Holiday Bowl, but this bowl battle is likely to be won be the Maize and Blue. 

Under the radar
The ACC (Maryland) and Pac-10 (Oregon) have both determined their BCS representative, and the Big East (Miami) is all but official. And one way or the other, the Big Ten champion will also be determined by this Saturday. So, even though the Big 12 and SEC teams won't be decided until December, it's time to start making some guesses about who will get the at-large bids. The reality is that there won't be many teams to choose from. If Tennessee had lost to Kentucky and Michigan had lost to Wisconsin on Saturday -- both of which almost happened -- that might have presented a scenario in which there were no eligible at-large teams from the ACC, Big East, Big Ten or SEC. And since the Big 12 can't get more than two teams into the BCS, and Oregon has already played both Stanford and Washington State, everything would have played perfectly into the hands of an undefeated BYU.

The order of choice by the BCS bowls is dependent upon which teams are playing for the national title, but if things play out according to form and a Big 12 team finishes at No. 1, the Fiesta will get the first pick. If they choose the Big Ten champion, the Sugar Bowl will likely take another Big 12 team with one at-large selection, and the other choice should be the Tennessee-Florida loser to the Orange Bowl. If the Fiesta does take BYU as an at-large pick, that second team from the Big 12 would go to either the Sugar or the Orange. 

Florida still needs two losses from the group of Nebraska, Miami and Oklahoma to have a good chance to reach the Rose Bowl, but they might have been in even bigger trouble if not for a narrow escape by Tennessee over the weekend. The Vols are the only team the Gators can still get bonus points for a win against, and those would have been all but gone if Tennessee had lost to Kentucky.

Oklahoma is certainly in good shape if they win out and all else goes according to form, but there is one "what if?" scenario to think about. If Texas loses at Texas A&M and Colorado beats Nebraska on Friday, would Oklahoma still finish higher than Florida if both teams win out? The Texas loss would cost the Sooners some bonus points, and the Nebraska loss would prevent them from having an opportunity to pick up more. It's too early to know the impact of that series of events, but it is something for OU fans to think about over Thanksgiving dinner.

Texas has been all but eliminated from the national title hunt after Oklahoma's win at Texas Tech. The only remaining hope for the Longhorns is an Oklahoma State upset of the Sooners in Norman. Good luck. If Colorado beats Nebraska this week and then Oklahoma the following week in the Big 12 Championship Game, that might leave Texas as the highest ranked team from the conference, but it would not be enough to get them into the BCS top two unless Florida or Miami also loses.

If the season ended today ...
The top three still look the same, and all those behind them are trying to keep hope alive. 

Official BCS standings
1. Nebraska
2. Miami
3. Oklahoma
4. Florida
5. Oregon
6. Texas
7. Tennessee
8. Illinois
9. Stanford
10. Michigan


BCS Game of the Week: Nebraska at Colorado
It's hard to believe a team could be 11-0 without winning any type of crown, but that's the reality the Cornhuskers carry into Boulder. The winner of this game gets the Big 12 North championship and a trip to Dallas for the conference title. A loss might instead send Nebraska to Dallas for the Cotton Bowl.

This game is not only to keep the Huskers' title hopes alive, but as referenced above, it could also have an effect on the BCS futures of Oklahoma, Texas and Florida, as well as Tennessee and Oregon. Throw in the fact that this game normally comes down to the wire, and you can sense the drama it might present all across the country.

Brad Edwards is a college football researcher for ESPN. Inside the BCS appears weekly.