Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	paul_ryan	24		✓	0.976	0.00995	0.0143
1	paul_ryan	24		✗	0	0	0
2	great_thing	38		✓	0.166	0.0269	0.0601
2	great_thing	38		✗	0.732	0.00716	0.00856
3	import_aspect	14		✓	0.0786	0.00119	0.00617
3	import_aspect	14		✗	0.836	0.0283	0.0496
4	american_life	3		✓	0.0561	0.000398	0.000796
4	american_life	3		✗	0.882	0.0149	0.0458
5	american_famili	3		✓	0.102	0	0.000199
5	american_famili	3		✗	0.859	0.00398	0.0346
6	great_deal	24		✓	0.174	0.00836	0.00299
6	great_deal	24		✗	0.801	0.00119	0.0119
7	nation_histori	6		✓	0.0581	0.00776	0.0105
7	nation_histori	6		✗	0.912	0.00856	0.00259
8	fellow_citizen	4		✓	0.0215	0.00398	0.0322
8	fellow_citizen	4		✗	0.913	0.0157	0.0135
9	turn_point	11		✓	0.0583	0.0173	0.0225
9	turn_point	11		✗	0.851	0.0185	0.0322
10	nation_debt	12		✓	0.0352	0.0287	0.328
10	nation_debt	12		✗	0.52	0.0342	0.0533
11	same_time	27		✓	0.384	0.00756	0.0223
11	same_time	27		✗	0.459	0.0259	0.102
12	big_thing	48		✓	0.295	0.0352	0.00537
12	big_thing	48		✗	0.636	0.0243	0.00418
13	america_face	8		✓	0.103	0.000199	0.000398
13	america_face	8		✗	0.892	0.00338	0.00119
14	american_peopl	16		✓	0.0613	0.00299	0.151
14	american_peopl	16		✗	0.781	0.00159	0.00199
15	year_ago	17		✓	0.0306	0.079	0.394
15	year_ago	17		✗	0.35	0.00478	0.141
16	candid_obama	2		✓	0.00239	0.00199	0.0963
16	candid_obama	2		✗	0.285	0.0834	0.531
17	person_attack	40		✓	0.507	0.00935	0.0436
17	person_attack	40		✗	0.227	0.0503	0.163
18	year_ago	37		✓	0.0211	0.0511	0.621
18	year_ago	37		✗	0.0868	0.049	0.171
19	america_vote	2		✓	0.000398	0.00597	0.104
19	america_vote	2		✗	0.00617	0.0989	0.784
20	presid_obama	26		✓	0.000796	0.00995	0.109
20	presid_obama	26		✗	0.000199	0.0993	0.781
21	obama_promis	0		✓	0	0.000398	0.00677
21	obama_promis	0		✗	0.000398	0.109	0.883
22	singl_vote	40		✓	0.0215	0.0525	0.151
22	singl_vote	40		✗	0	0.102	0.673
23	social_secur	20		✓	0.00438	0.00617	0.0649
23	social_secur	20		✗	0.00776	0.135	0.782
24	__NUM___million	28		✓	0.000199	0.00796	0.651
24	__NUM___million	28		✗	0	0.102	0.239
25	presid_obama	4		✓	0	0.000995	0.0259
25	presid_obama	4		✗	0	0.108	0.865
26	obama_promis	0		✓	0	0.000199	0.00378
26	obama_promis	0		✗	0	0.109	0.887
27	presid_obama	36		✓	0.00378	0.0223	0.136
27	presid_obama	36		✗	0	0.102	0.735
28	obama_polici	0		✓	0.000199	0.000796	0.00557
28	obama_polici	0		✗	0.00259	0.124	0.867
29	dai_ago	102		✓	0.42	0.0913	0.185
29	dai_ago	102		✗	0.00199	0.0527	0.249
30	colleg_student	39		✓	0.197	0.0211	0.05
30	colleg_student	39		✗	0.324	0.0961	0.311
31	thousand_dollar	10		✓	0.0959	0.0103	0.00219
31	thousand_dollar	10		✗	0.488	0.112	0.292
32	student_debt	2		✓	0.00418	0.00119	0.000796
32	student_debt	2		✗	0.579	0.121	0.294
33	thousand_dollar	13		✓	0.0643	0.00239	0.00418
33	thousand_dollar	13		✗	0.529	0.118	0.282
34	govern_debt	2		✓	0.0253	0.00259	0.0322
34	govern_debt	2		✗	0.57	0.107	0.262
35	american_dream	8		✓	0.428	0.00139	0
35	american_dream	8		✗	0.511	0.0494	0.0101
36	teacher_union	27		✓	0.173	0.000597	0
36	teacher_union	27		✗	0.822	0.00398	0
37	school_choic	7		✓	0.00517	0	0.000398
37	school_choic	7		✗	0.99	0.00438	0
38	__NUM___million_american	16		✓	0.56	0.0631	0.335
38	__NUM___million_american	16		✗	0.0386	0.00398	0
39	good_job	6		✓	0.0418	0.00537	0.0219
39	good_job	6		✗	0.564	0.0641	0.303
40	big_thing	29		✓	0.377	0.00637	0.00776
40	big_thing	29		✗	0.51	0.0617	0.038
41	foreign_oil	67		✓	0.232	0.00378	0.27
41	foreign_oil	67		✗	0.463	0.00637	0.0239
42	presid_obama	8		✓	0.0213	0.00756	0.176
42	presid_obama	8		✗	0.503	0.00915	0.284
43	largest_economi	45		✓	0.0181	0.00537	0.545
43	largest_economi	45		✗	0.0503	0.0107	0.371
44	presid_obama	60		✓	0.0285	0.0714	0.282
44	presid_obama	60		✗	0.0111	0.0117	0.595
45	social_secur	13		✓	0.00975	0.0181	0.0589
45	social_secur	13		✗	0.0219	0.079	0.812
46	muslim_world	45		✓	0.4	0.0267	0.257
46	muslim_world	45		✗	0.0223	0.0611	0.233
47	__MONEY___trillion	39		✓	0.122	0.0354	0.202
47	__MONEY___trillion	39		✗	0.266	0.075	0.3
48	american_presid	14		✓	0.124	0.0265	0.045
48	american_presid	14		✗	0.354	0.101	0.349
49	small_busi	9		✓	0.0105	0.0279	0.336
49	small_busi	9		✗	0.145	0.124	0.357
50	healthcar_bill	13		✓	0.0223	0.308	0.0302
50	healthcar_bill	13		✗	0.0798	0.149	0.41
51	biggest_bank	15		✓	0.0131	0.1	0.0275
51	biggest_bank	15		✗	0.0702	0.452	0.336
52	tax_increas	52		✓	0.00557	0.0372	0.168
52	tax_increas	52		✗	0.0299	0.501	0.258
53	taxpay_monei	29		✓	0.00836	0.00478	0.402
53	taxpay_monei	29		✗	0.00498	0.178	0.402
54	taxpay_dollar	30		✓	0.000199	0	0.426
54	taxpay_dollar	30		✗	0.000199	0.00299	0.571
55	feder_debt	19		✓	0	0	0.079
55	feder_debt	19		✗	0	0	0.921
56	energi_price	1		✓	0	0	0.00836
56	energi_price	1		✗	0	0	0.992
57	energi_product	6		✓	0.000199	0.000398	0.0281
57	energi_product	6		✗	0	0	0.971
58	gasolin_price	25		✓	0.0173	0.0308	0.11
58	gasolin_price	25		✗	0.000199	0.000398	0.841
59	__NUM___million	44		✓	0	0.0306	0.2
59	__NUM___million	44		✗	0	0.0255	0.744
60	fellow_citizen	4		✓	0.00119	0.00119	0.0185
60	fellow_citizen	4		✗	0.000199	0.0555	0.923
61	food_stamp	3		✓	0	0.0135	0.0191
61	food_stamp	3		✗	0	0.0555	0.912
62	presid_obama	3		✓	0.000995	0.00478	0.0171
62	presid_obama	3		✗	0.000199	0.0679	0.909
63	__NUM___million	8		✓	0	0.00995	0.0338
63	__NUM___million	8		✗	0.000199	0.0704	0.886
64	american_todai	15		✓	0.00756	0.132	0.0551
64	american_todai	15		✗	0	0.0782	0.728
65	latest_round	15		✓	0.0736	0.00856	0.0511
65	latest_round	15		✗	0.00816	0.196	0.662
66	white_hous	22		✓	0.143	0.00756	0.138
66	white_hous	22		✗	0.0675	0.138	0.505
67	econom_growth	16		✓	0	0.00299	0.414
67	econom_growth	16		✗	0.00179	0.0599	0.522
68	job_growth	3		✓	0	0.00159	0.0187
68	job_growth	3		✗	0	0.0609	0.919
69	presid_obama	12		✓	0.00279	0.0422	0.0472
69	presid_obama	12		✗	0	0.0601	0.848
70	obama_polici	0		✓	0	0.00478	0.00318
70	obama_polici	0		✗	0.00239	0.102	0.887
71	presidenti_debat	28		✓	0.0293	0.00398	0.177
71	presidenti_debat	28		✗	0.00179	0.0356	0.752
72	rais_tax	23		✓	0	0.00139	0.172
72	rais_tax	23		✗	0.000199	0.00896	0.818
73	tax_plan	14		✓	0.000796	0.000796	0.0766
73	tax_plan	14		✗	0	0.00796	0.914
74	__NUM___job	6		✓	0.00577	0.00239	0.0281
74	__NUM___job	6		✗	0.000597	0.00816	0.955
75	privat_sector	23		✓	0.000199	0.00139	0.117
75	privat_sector	23		✗	0.00119	0.00517	0.875
76	year_ago	9		✓	0.00458	0.0197	0.0474
76	year_ago	9		✗	0.000398	0.00657	0.921
77	trillion_dollar	4		✓	0.000995	0.00299	0.0265
77	trillion_dollar	4		✗	0.00239	0.0261	0.941
78	nation_defens	10		✓	0.0211	0.00338	0.0426
78	nation_defens	10		✗	0.00259	0.0275	0.903
79	govern_polici	14		✓	0.198	0.0107	0.0438
79	govern_polici	14		✗	0.0227	0.0243	0.701
80	paul_ryan	37		✓	0.81	0.000398	0.00199
80	paul_ryan	37		✗	0.172	0.00517	0.0103
81	vice_presid	9		✓	0.0577	0.000398	0.00438
81	vice_presid	9		✗	0.928	0.00119	0.00856
82	higher_tax	24		✓	0.00179	0.0157	0.95
82	higher_tax	24		✗	0.0175	0.000597	0.0147
83	free_peopl	12		✓	0	0.000597	0.078
83	free_peopl	12		✗	0	0.0113	0.91
84	middl_class	12		✓	0.000199	0.000796	0.0543
84	middl_class	12		✗	0.000199	0.0109	0.934
85	balanc_budget	18		✓	0.00139	0.000995	0.0754
85	balanc_budget	18		✗	0.000199	0.0101	0.912
86	economi_grow	53		✓	0.000398	0	0.236
86	economi_grow	53		✗	0	0	0.763
87	obama_war	5		✓	0.00239	0.000796	0.0293
87	obama_war	5		✗	0.000398	0	0.967
88	natur_ga	14		✓	0	0	0.0852
88	natur_ga	14		✗	0.000199	0	0.915
89	feder_regul	2		✓	0.00498	0.000199	0.0147
89	feder_regul	2		✗	0.000199	0	0.98
90	north_american	62		✓	0	0	0.301
90	north_american	62		✗	0	0	0.699
91	american_energi	0		✓	0	0	0.00557
91	american_energi	0		✗	0	0	0.994
92	energi_independ	0		✓	0	0	0.00498
92	energi_independ	0		✗	0	0	0.995
93	american_worker	46		✓	0.00597	0	0.193
93	american_worker	46		✗	0	0	0.801
94	make_america	10		✓	0.0153	0	0.0476
94	make_america	10		✗	0.00478	0	0.932
95	small_busi	13		✓	0.00299	0.000796	0.0647
95	small_busi	13		✗	0.00995	0	0.922
96	lower_tax	21		✓	0.0199	0	0.0945
96	lower_tax	21		✗	0.00955	0	0.876
97	tax_rate	0		✓	0.000398	0	0.00597
97	tax_rate	0		✗	0.0295	0	0.964
98	train_program	52		✓	0.35	0.0119	0.14
98	train_program	52		✗	0.0223	0	0.477
99	peopl_live	8		✓	0.0203	0.00219	0.087
99	peopl_live	8		✗	0.309	0.0105	0.571
100	creat___NUM__	41		✓	0.000199	0	0.5
100	creat___NUM__	41		✗	0.000398	0.000199	0.5
101	__NUM___million	0		✓	0	0	0.00418
101	__NUM___million	0		✗	0	0	0.996
102	american_economi	17		✓	0	0	0.0754
102	american_economi	17		✗	0	0	0.925
103	economi_grow	0		✓	0	0	0.00338
103	economi_grow	0		✗	0	0	0.997
104	middl_class	32		✓	0.00159	0.00279	0.141
104	middl_class	32		✗	0	0	0.854
105	big_problem	19		✓	0.00896	0.00119	0.082
105	big_problem	19		✗	0.00119	0.00259	0.904
106	social_secur	15		✓	0	0.00736	0.0334
106	social_secur	15		✗	0	0.00358	0.956
107	__MONEY___billion	19		✓	0	0.00279	0.00358
107	__MONEY___billion	19		✗	0	0.0107	0.983
108	presid_obama	1		✓	0.00318	0.000398	0.00219
108	presid_obama	1		✗	0	0.0135	0.981
109	consum_choic	49		✓	0.0645	0.00378	0.0101
109	consum_choic	49		✗	0.00219	0.0117	0.908
110	polit_parti	39		✓	0.921	0.00119	0.00159
110	polit_parti	39		✗	0.0557	0	0.0209
111	republican_leadership	7		✓	0.0466	0.000199	0.00358
111	republican_leadership	7		✗	0.93	0.000995	0.0183
112	common_ground	7		✓	0.0454	0	0.00239
112	common_ground	7		✗	0.94	0.000398	0.0113
113	american_peopl	13		✓	0.0625	0	0.0529
113	american_peopl	13		✗	0.872	0	0.0125
114	republican_governor	40		✓	0.11	0.00199	0.338
114	republican_governor	40		✗	0.496	0	0.0537
115	billion_dollar	19		✓	0.00597	0.000398	0.515
115	billion_dollar	19		✗	0.12	0.000199	0.359
116	cut_spend	20		✓	0.000398	0	0.139
116	cut_spend	20		✗	0.00199	0	0.859
117	lower_tax	5		✓	0	0	0.0135
117	lower_tax	5		✗	0	0	0.986
118	__NUM___time	1		✓	0.000199	0	0.00239
118	__NUM___time	1		✗	0	0	0.997
119	school_choic	3		✓	0.0195	0.000199	0.00239
119	school_choic	3		✗	0.000199	0	0.978
120	job_growth	17		✓	0	0	0.0842
120	job_growth	17		✗	0.000398	0	0.915
121	__MONEY___billion	14		✓	0	0	0.00955
121	__MONEY___billion	14		✗	0	0	0.99
122	budget_deficit	1		✓	0	0	0.000398
122	budget_deficit	1		✗	0	0	1
123	__MONEY___billion	3		✓	0	0	0.000199
123	__MONEY___billion	3		✗	0	0	1
124	big_problem	23		✓	0.117	0.00199	0.219
124	big_problem	23		✗	0	0	0.662
125	paul_ryan	14		✓	0.499	0.00816	0.0535
125	paul_ryan	14		✗	0.107	0.000398	0.331
126	middl_class	11		✓	0.00119	0.00517	0.775
126	middl_class	11		✗	0.0151	0.00378	0.2
127	creat_job	2		✓	0.000199	0.000199	0.0181
127	creat_job	2		✗	0.0121	0.00796	0.961
128	free_world	35		✓	0.392	0.0314	0.089
128	free_world	35		✗	0.00896	0.00736	0.472
129	muslim_world	12		✓	0.0356	0.00697	0.0695
129	muslim_world	12		✗	0.343	0.037	0.508
130	nuclear_bomb	14		✓	0.0322	0.00259	0.0844
130	nuclear_bomb	14		✗	0.303	0.0328	0.545
131	latin_america	8		✓	0.0247	0.000398	0.133
131	latin_america	8		✗	0.219	0.0185	0.604
132	great_nation	10		✓	0.594	0.000199	0.00458
132	great_nation	10		✗	0.185	0.00299	0.213
133	american_centuri	78		✓	0.238	0.00299	0.192
133	american_centuri	78		✗	0.405	0.000597	0.161
134	good_job	28		✓	0.126	0.045	0.274
134	good_job	28		✗	0.435	0.00279	0.117
135	found_principl	100		✓	0.421	0.0179	0.158
135	found_principl	100		✗	0.281	0.0169	0.105
136	statu_quo	34		✓	0.21	0.0225	0.0402
136	statu_quo	34		✗	0.576	0.0285	0.123
137	turn_point	53		✓	0.396	0.00736	0.00856
137	turn_point	53		✗	0.557	0.0209	0.00975
138	paul_ryan	6		✓	0.0808	0.000398	0
138	paul_ryan	6		✗	0.907	0.0103	0.00159
139	god_bless	25		✓	0.126	0	0
139	god_bless	25		✗	0.874	0	0
140	god_bless_america	3		✓	0.0175	0.000597	0.000398
140	god_bless_america	3		✗	0.981	0	0
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	2

Mitt Romney

Cue-lag representation