Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	red_cross	320		✓	0.994	0	0.00597
1	red_cross	320		✗	0	0	0
2	polic_offic	34		✓	0.154	0	0.00199
2	polic_offic	34		✗	0.844	0	0.000398
3	singl_dai	8		✓	0.0448	0	0.000199
3	singl_dai	8		✗	0.955	0	0.000199
4	fellow_citizen	42		✓	0.179	0	0.000398
4	fellow_citizen	42		✗	0.821	0	0
5	polit_parti	12		✓	0.0543	0	0
5	polit_parti	12		✗	0.946	0	0
6	tough_time	23		✓	0.1	0	0.0245
6	tough_time	23		✗	0.875	0	0
7	__NUM___year	46		✓	0.0515	0	0.742
7	__NUM___year	46		✗	0.186	0	0.0203
8	econom_crisi	16		✓	0.000995	0	0.27
8	econom_crisi	16		✗	0.0113	0	0.717
9	great_depress	3		✓	0.000199	0	0.0225
9	great_depress	3		✗	0.00478	0	0.973
10	auto_industri	13		✓	0	0	0.049
10	auto_industri	13		✗	0	0	0.951
11	foreign_oil	15		✓	0.00179	0	0.0484
11	foreign_oil	15		✗	0	0	0.95
12	__NUM___year	7		✓	0.136	0	0.0257
12	__NUM___year	7		✗	0.00159	0	0.837
13	bin_laden	41		✓	0.796	0	0.0125
13	bin_laden	41		✗	0.113	0	0.0778
14	past___NUM___year	9		✓	0.116	0	0.000398
14	past___NUM___year	9		✗	0.872	0	0.0111
15	find_work	55		✓	0.237	0.000199	0.00119
15	find_work	55		✗	0.762	0	0
16	work_harder	10		✓	0.0611	0	0.000796
16	work_harder	10		✗	0.938	0	0.000398
17	middl_class	61		✓	0.25	0	0.0525
17	middl_class	61		✗	0.697	0	0.000796
18	fair_share	22		✓	0.132	0	0.00159
18	fair_share	22		✗	0.853	0	0.0133
19	unit_state	32		✓	0.145	0	0.00955
19	unit_state	32		✗	0.841	0	0.00478
20	__NUM___dai	20		✓	0.1	0	0.0125
20	__NUM___dai	20		✗	0.877	0	0.0103
21	middl_class	75		✓	0.0557	0.000199	0.801
21	middl_class	75		✗	0.125	0	0.0173
22	drive_forc	34		✓	0	0	0.263
22	drive_forc	34		✗	0	0	0.737
23	free_enterpris	3		✓	0	0	0
23	free_enterpris	3		✗	0	0	1
24	enterpris_system	0		✓	0	0	0
24	enterpris_system	0		✗	0	0	1
25	health_insur	78		✓	0.00219	0	0.986
25	health_insur	78		✗	0	0	0.0113
26	social_secur	4		✓	0.000199	0	0.0219
26	social_secur	4		✗	0.000199	0	0.978
27	protect_consum	24		✓	0	0	0.0844
27	protect_consum	24		✗	0	0	0.916
28	credit_card_compani	8		✓	0	0	0.0273
28	credit_card_compani	8		✗	0	0	0.973
29	move_product	35		✓	0.0426	0.0117	0.116
29	move_product	35		✗	0	0	0.83
30	health_care	25		✓	0.0255	0	0.105
30	health_care	25		✗	0.0245	0.00279	0.843
31	__NUM___year	15		✓	0.00358	0	0.0856
31	__NUM___year	15		✗	0.0155	0	0.895
32	bill_clinton	13		✓	0	0	0.0631
32	bill_clinton	13		✗	0	0	0.937
33	econom_plan	3		✓	0	0	0.0131
33	econom_plan	3		✗	0	0	0.987
34	senat_candid	45		✓	0.000199	0	0.144
34	senat_candid	45		✗	0	0	0.856
35	mitt_romnei	5		✓	0.000199	0	0.0211
35	mitt_romnei	5		✗	0	0	0.979
36	bill_clinton	23		✓	0	0	0.0768
36	bill_clinton	23		✗	0	0	0.923
37	clinton_plan	0		✓	0	0	0.00279
37	clinton_plan	0		✗	0	0	0.997
38	presid_clinton	35		✓	0.000398	0	0.118
38	presid_clinton	35		✗	0	0	0.882
39	creat___NUM__	6		✓	0	0	0.0213
39	creat___NUM__	6		✗	0	0	0.979
40	__NUM___million	0		✓	0.00139	0	0.00299
40	__NUM___million	0		✗	0	0	0.996
41	tax_cut	63		✓	0	0.000199	0.207
41	tax_cut	63		✗	0	0	0.793
42	insur_compani	7		✓	0	0	0.0233
42	insur_compani	7		✗	0	0	0.977
43	oil_compani	2		✓	0	0	0.00637
43	oil_compani	2		✗	0	0	0.994
44	wall_street	2		✓	0.000199	0	0.00915
44	wall_street	2		✗	0	0	0.991
45	job_growth	24		✓	0	0	0.0852
45	job_growth	24		✗	0	0	0.915
46	econom_crisi	10		✓	0.00179	0	0.0346
46	econom_crisi	10		✗	0	0	0.964
47	biggest_bank	93		✓	0	0	0.302
47	biggest_bank	93		✗	0	0	0.698
48	__MONEY___trillion	12		✓	0	0	0.0382
48	__MONEY___trillion	12		✗	0	0	0.962
49	tax_cut	1		✓	0	0.000199	0.00816
49	tax_cut	1		✗	0	0	0.992
50	tea_parti	49		✓	0.00199	0	0.158
50	tea_parti	49		✗	0	0	0.84
51	car_compani	111		✓	0.0167	0.000199	0.364
51	car_compani	111		✗	0	0	0.619
52	creat_job	14		✓	0.152	0	0.0438
52	creat_job	14		✗	0.0161	0.000199	0.788
53	unit_state	3		✓	0.302	0	0.00577
53	unit_state	3		✗	0.165	0	0.526
54	tv_ad	20		✓	0.503	0	0.00537
54	tv_ad	20		✗	0.426	0	0.0655
55	tough_time	16		✓	0.0792	0	0.0854
55	tough_time	16		✗	0.781	0	0.0539
56	auto_industri	10		✓	0.00259	0	0.791
56	auto_industri	10		✗	0.0702	0	0.136
57	car_compani	47		✓	0.00299	0	0.204
57	car_compani	47		✗	0.00796	0	0.785
58	american_worker	30		✓	0.00199	0	0.104
58	american_worker	30		✗	0.00219	0	0.892
59	auto_industri	29		✓	0.00219	0	0.101
59	auto_industri	29		✗	0.00119	0	0.896
60	american_worker	28		✓	0.0388	0.000398	0.0901
60	american_worker	28		✗	0.00279	0	0.868
61	unit_state	48		✓	0.541	0	0.0752
61	unit_state	48		✗	0.033	0	0.35
62	essenti_part	5		✓	0.0374	0.00119	0.0117
62	essenti_part	5		✗	0.552	0	0.397
63	__NUM___year	66		✓	0.365	0	0.089
63	__NUM___year	66		✗	0.381	0	0.165
64	singl_dai	57		✓	0.417	0	0.00856
64	singl_dai	57		✗	0.558	0	0.0165
65	turn_back	70		✓	0.305	0	0.000199
65	turn_back	70		✗	0.695	0	0
66	move_forward	18		✓	0.0818	0	0.0161
66	move_forward	18		✗	0.902	0	0.000199
67	__NUM___year	90		✓	0.37	0	0.0255
67	__NUM___year	90		✗	0.603	0	0.00179
68	scienc_teacher	16		✓	0.103	0	0
68	scienc_teacher	16		✗	0.897	0	0
69	__NUM___million_american	16		✓	0.0689	0.000199	0.000199
69	__NUM___million_american	16		✗	0.931	0	0
70	commun_colleg	4		✓	0.0213	0	0
70	commun_colleg	4		✗	0.979	0	0
71	great_thing	41		✓	0.173	0.000199	0.154
71	great_thing	41		✗	0.672	0	0
72	auto_industri	6		✓	0.00119	0	0.771
72	auto_industri	6		✗	0.0778	0	0.15
73	wind_turbin	55		✓	0	0	0.207
73	wind_turbin	55		✗	0	0	0.793
74	tax_code	18		✓	0	0	0.00239
74	tax_code	18		✗	0	0	0.998
75	oil_compani	3		✓	0	0	0.000199
75	oil_compani	3		✗	0	0	1
76	compani_profit	0		✓	0	0	0
76	compani_profit	0		✗	0	0	1
77	make_monei	4		✓	0	0	0.00139
77	make_monei	4		✗	0	0	0.999
78	clean_energi	11		✓	0.00199	0	0.0368
78	clean_energi	11		✗	0	0	0.961
79	tax_code	23		✓	0.000398	0.000199	0.789
79	tax_code	23		✗	0	0	0.211
80	job_oversea	6		✓	0	0	0.125
80	job_oversea	6		✗	0	0	0.875
81	tax_break	6		✓	0.000398	0	0.0322
81	tax_break	6		✗	0	0	0.967
82	trillion_dollar	200		✓	0	0	0.628
82	trillion_dollar	200		✗	0	0	0.372
83	spend_cut	4		✓	0	0	0.0117
83	spend_cut	4		✗	0	0	0.988
84	tax_rate	35		✓	0	0.000199	0.118
84	tax_rate	35		✗	0	0	0.881
85	bill_clinton	5		✓	0	0	0.0191
85	bill_clinton	5		✗	0	0	0.981
86	make_choic	45		✓	0.000398	0	0.157
86	make_choic	45		✗	0	0	0.843
87	middl_class	20		✓	0.000597	0	0.0687
87	middl_class	20		✗	0	0	0.931
88	poor_folk	3		✓	0	0	0.0153
88	poor_folk	3		✗	0.000199	0	0.984
89	tax_cut	16		✓	0.00139	0	0.0521
89	tax_cut	16		✗	0	0	0.946
90	young_peopl	10		✓	0.0382	0	0.0334
90	young_peopl	10		✗	0.00139	0	0.927
91	tax_break	10		✓	0.00259	0	0.0581
91	tax_break	10		✗	0.0169	0	0.922
92	american_peopl	77		✓	0.946	0	0.0101
92	american_peopl	77		✗	0.0129	0	0.0306
93	special_interest	18		✓	0.117	0	0
93	special_interest	18		✗	0.882	0	0.00179
94	__NUM___year	28		✓	0.122	0	0.0695
94	__NUM___year	28		✗	0.809	0	0
95	statu_quo	3		✓	0.0159	0	0.00836
95	statu_quo	3		✗	0.909	0	0.0663
96	health_care	30		✓	0.0965	0.000398	0.238
96	health_care	30		✗	0.603	0	0.0623
97	wall_street	20		✓	0.0396	0	0.32
97	wall_street	20		✗	0.367	0	0.274
98	middl_class	169		✓	0.00179	0.000199	0.716
98	middl_class	169		✗	0.000796	0	0.282
99	class_famili	0		✓	0	0	0.00557
99	class_famili	0		✗	0.000995	0	0.993
100	cut_tax	3		✓	0	0	0.0141
100	cut_tax	3		✗	0	0	0.986
101	middl_class	2		✓	0	0	0.00776
101	middl_class	2		✗	0	0	0.992
102	class_famili	0		✓	0.000199	0	0.00199
102	class_famili	0		✗	0	0	0.998
103	small_busi	2		✓	0.00179	0.000398	0.0113
103	small_busi	2		✗	0.000199	0	0.986
104	put_peopl	80		✓	0.275	0	0.196
104	put_peopl	80		✗	0.000597	0	0.529
105	financi_aid	27		✓	0.0505	0	0.118
105	financi_aid	27		✗	0.19	0	0.641
106	plan_parenthood	7		✓	0.0179	0	0.0189
106	plan_parenthood	7		✗	0.239	0	0.724
107	insur_compani	3		✓	0.000398	0	0.0119
107	insur_compani	3		✗	0.257	0	0.731
108	health_care	9		✓	0.0346	0	0.0318
108	health_care	9		✗	0.243	0	0.691
109	statu_quo	37		✓	0.146	0	0.238
109	statu_quo	37		✗	0.0239	0	0.592
110	middl_class	4		✓	0.00478	0	0.0468
110	middl_class	4		✗	0.133	0	0.816
111	class_famili	0		✓	0.00139	0.000199	0.00597
111	class_famili	0		✗	0.132	0	0.86
112	campaign_trail	111		✓	0.926	0	0.000199
112	campaign_trail	111		✗	0.0736	0	0
113	commun_colleg	14		✓	0.0667	0	0
113	commun_colleg	14		✗	0.933	0	0
114	restaur_owner	15		✓	0.0677	0	0
114	restaur_owner	15		✗	0.932	0	0
115	school_suppli	124		✓	0.468	0	0.000199
115	school_suppli	124		✗	0.532	0	0
116	young_peopl	22		✓	0.101	0	0
116	young_peopl	22		✗	0.899	0	0
117	small_farm	5		✓	0.0241	0	0
117	small_farm	5		✗	0.976	0	0
118	statu_quo	55		✓	0.238	0	0.00836
118	statu_quo	55		✗	0.753	0	0
119	turn_back	61		✓	0.256	0	0
119	turn_back	61		✗	0.744	0	0
120	push_forward	16		✓	0.0758	0	0
120	push_forward	16		✗	0.924	0	0
121	middl_class	31		✓	0.139	0.000398	0.0281
121	middl_class	31		✗	0.833	0	0
122	american_dream	32		✓	0.175	0	0.000199
122	american_dream	32		✗	0.824	0	0
123	phone_call	25		✓	0.113	0	0
123	phone_call	25		✗	0.887	0	0
124	unit_state	36		✓	0.156	0	0.000796
124	unit_state	36		✗	0.844	0	0
125	god_bless	8		✓	0.0406	0	0
125	god_bless	8		✗	0.959	0	0
126	unit_state	7		✓	0.036	0	0.00915
126	unit_state	7		✗	0.955	0	0
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	3

Barack Obama

Cue-lag representation