Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	road_trip	57		✓	0.96	0.0231	0.0165
1	road_trip	57		✗	0	0	0
2	attornei_gener	8		✓	0.0575	0	0
2	attornei_gener	8		✗	0.934	0.00716	0.000995
3	north_carolina	32		✓	0.0868	0	0
3	north_carolina	32		✗	0.911	0.00239	0
4	presid_clinton	27		✓	0.0418	0	0.0316
4	presid_clinton	27		✗	0.926	0.000199	0
5	pretti_good	34		✓	0.05	0	0.000995
5	pretti_good	34		✗	0.942	0	0.00657
6	good_idea	0		✓	0.000995	0	0
6	good_idea	0		✗	0.992	0	0.00736
7	joe_biden	3		✓	0.00299	0.000199	0.000199
7	joe_biden	3		✗	0.99	0	0.00697
8	middl_class	119		✓	0.787	0.000796	0.133
8	middl_class	119		✗	0.0784	0.000199	0.000796
9	work_hard	18		✓	0.177	0	0.00219
9	work_hard	18		✗	0.798	0	0.0233
10	fair_share	23		✓	0.119	0	0.00358
10	fair_share	23		✗	0.87	0	0.00776
11	main_street	12		✓	0.0587	0	0.0113
11	main_street	12		✗	0.922	0	0.00836
12	wall_street	2		✓	0.0125	0	0.00239
12	wall_street	2		✗	0.966	0	0.0195
13	public_servic	15		✓	0.0285	0	0.000597
13	public_servic	15		✗	0.959	0	0.0121
14	steel_mill	14		✓	0.00577	0	0.00836
14	steel_mill	14		✗	0.973	0	0.0125
15	credit_card	50		✓	0	0	0.979
15	credit_card	50		✗	0.00478	0	0.0159
16	home_equiti	2		✓	0	0	0.0125
16	home_equiti	2		✗	0.00239	0	0.985
17	great_recess	28		✓	0	0	0.125
17	great_recess	28		✗	0	0	0.875
18	life_save	15		✓	0	0	0.0484
18	life_save	15		✗	0	0	0.952
19	republican_convent	19		✓	0	0	0.111
19	republican_convent	19		✗	0	0	0.889
20	__NUM___year	69		✓	0.00338	0	0.237
20	__NUM___year	69		✗	0	0	0.76
21	tax_cut	2		✓	0	0.000199	0.0123
21	tax_cut	2		✗	0.000995	0	0.986
22	cut_tax	73		✓	0	0.000398	0.239
22	cut_tax	73		✗	0	0	0.761
23	middl_class	7		✓	0.000398	0	0.0265
23	middl_class	7		✗	0	0	0.973
24	class_famili	0		✓	0	0	0.00358
24	class_famili	0		✗	0	0	0.996
25	busi_owner	4		✓	0	0.000199	0.0145
25	busi_owner	4		✗	0	0	0.985
26	cut_tax	15		✓	0	0	0.0436
26	cut_tax	15		✗	0	0	0.956
27	middl_class	2		✓	0	0	0.00935
27	middl_class	2		✗	0	0	0.991
28	class_famili	0		✓	0	0	0.00279
28	class_famili	0		✗	0	0	0.997
29	averag_famili	8		✓	0	0	0.0285
29	averag_famili	8		✗	0	0	0.972
30	tax_burden	4		✓	0	0.000199	0.0193
30	tax_burden	4		✗	0	0	0.98
31	tax_break	26		✓	0	0	0.0977
31	tax_break	26		✗	0	0	0.902
32	good_job	5		✓	0.000199	0	0.0227
32	good_job	5		✗	0	0	0.977
33	job_back	0		✓	0	0	0.00358
33	job_back	0		✗	0	0	0.996
34	financi_aid	20		✓	0.000597	0	0.0651
34	financi_aid	20		✗	0	0	0.934
35	roll_back	47		✓	0	0	0.149
35	roll_back	47		✗	0	0	0.851
36	wall_street	3		✓	0.0123	0	0.0127
36	wall_street	3		✗	0	0	0.975
37	construct_worker	19		✓	0.376	0	0.0398
37	construct_worker	19		✗	0.0109	0	0.573
38	de_moin	2		✓	0.115	0	0.00597
38	de_moin	2		✗	0.382	0	0.497
39	move_forward	19		✓	0.262	0	0.0273
39	move_forward	19		✗	0.451	0	0.259
40	unit_state	14		✓	0.159	0	0.0161
40	unit_state	14		✗	0.657	0	0.169
41	move_forward	74		✓	0.409	0	0.0267
41	move_forward	74		✗	0.546	0	0.0189
42	make_progress	3		✓	0.0253	0	0.00159
42	make_progress	3		✗	0.934	0	0.0392
43	make_thing	3		✓	0.0141	0	0.00478
43	make_thing	3		✗	0.942	0	0.0392
44	middl_class	6		✓	0.0105	0.000398	0.533
44	middl_class	6		✗	0.412	0	0.0438
45	bill_clinton	11		✓	0.000398	0	0.437
45	bill_clinton	11		✗	0.00657	0	0.556
46	__NUM___job	37		✓	0	0	0.128
46	__NUM___job	37		✗	0	0	0.872
47	__NUM___month	13		✓	0.00438	0	0.0456
47	__NUM___month	13		✗	0	0	0.95
48	__NUM___million_job	8		✓	0	0	0.0334
48	__NUM___million_job	8		✗	0	0	0.967
49	creat_job	17		✓	0.00378	0.000199	0.0581
49	creat_job	17		✗	0	0	0.938
50	middl_class	91		✓	0.000796	0	0.304
50	middl_class	91		✗	0	0	0.695
51	class_famili	0		✓	0	0	0.00378
51	class_famili	0		✗	0	0	0.996
52	small_busi	2		✓	0.000199	0.00119	0.00995
52	small_busi	2		✗	0	0	0.989
53	rais_tax	21		✓	0.000199	0.000597	0.0718
53	rais_tax	21		✗	0	0.000995	0.926
54	middl_class	3		✓	0.0121	0	0.0129
54	middl_class	3		✗	0.000199	0.00119	0.974
55	year_ago	48		✓	0.265	0	0.122
55	year_ago	48		✗	0.00975	0	0.604
56	construct_worker	6		✓	0.0794	0	0.0147
56	construct_worker	6		✗	0.267	0	0.639
57	long_time	13		✓	0.301	0.000199	0.00975
57	long_time	13		✗	0.327	0	0.362
58	nation_secur	70		✓	0.292	0.000199	0.0346
58	nation_secur	70		✗	0.425	0	0.248
59	__NUM___year	32		✓	0.0941	0	0.378
59	__NUM___year	32		✗	0.4	0	0.128
60	manufactur_job	69		✓	0.000199	0	0.667
60	manufactur_job	69		✗	0.000199	0	0.333
61	auto_industri	10		✓	0	0	0.0332
61	auto_industri	10		✗	0	0	0.967
62	tax_break	34		✓	0.000398	0	0.119
62	tax_break	34		✗	0	0	0.88
63	job_oversea	6		✓	0	0	0.0199
63	job_oversea	6		✗	0	0	0.98
64	unit_state	28		✓	0.0153	0	0.0876
64	unit_state	28		✗	0	0	0.897
65	small_busi	9		✓	0	0	0.0478
65	small_busi	9		✗	0.00139	0	0.951
66	manufactur_job	10		✓	0.000398	0	0.0372
66	manufactur_job	10		✗	0	0	0.962
67	__NUM___year	4		✓	0.00378	0	0.0149
67	__NUM___year	4		✗	0.000199	0	0.981
68	renew_energi	76		✓	0.000398	0	0.195
68	renew_energi	76		✗	0	0	0.805
69	wind_turbin	16		✓	0	0	0.000597
69	wind_turbin	16		✗	0	0	0.999
70	unit_state	10		✓	0	0	0.00139
70	unit_state	10		✗	0	0	0.999
71	foreign_oil	7		✓	0	0	0
71	foreign_oil	7		✗	0	0	1
72	oil_compani	52		✓	0	0	0.00318
72	oil_compani	52		✗	0	0	0.997
73	__MONEY___billion	14		✓	0	0	0.000199
73	__MONEY___billion	14		✗	0	0	1
74	corpor_welfar	2		✓	0	0	0.000199
74	corpor_welfar	2		✗	0	0	1
75	clean_coal	19		✓	0	0	0.000796
75	clean_coal	19		✗	0	0	0.999
76	construct_worker	19		✓	0	0	0.00159
76	construct_worker	19		✗	0	0	0.998
77	hundr_year	27		✓	0	0	0.00179
77	hundr_year	27		✗	0	0	0.998
78	natur_ga	4		✓	0	0	0
78	natur_ga	4		✗	0	0	1
79	move_forward	50		✓	0.76	0.000398	0.14
79	move_forward	50		✗	0	0	0.0995
80	middl_class	94		✓	0.533	0	0.00378
80	middl_class	94		✗	0.46	0	0.00358
81	class_life	0		✓	0.0103	0	0
81	class_life	0		✗	0.989	0	0.000199
82	student_loan	108		✓	0.437	0	0.0107
82	student_loan	108		✗	0.552	0	0
83	unit_state	42		✓	0.192	0	0.0113
83	unit_state	42		✗	0.793	0	0.00318
84	educ_system	69		✓	0.301	0	0
84	educ_system	69		✗	0.699	0	0
85	scienc_teacher	26		✓	0.101	0	0
85	scienc_teacher	26		✗	0.899	0	0
86	__NUM___year	4		✓	0.0209	0	0.000199
86	__NUM___year	4		✗	0.979	0	0
87	earli_childhood	3		✓	0.0179	0	0
87	earli_childhood	3		✗	0.982	0	0
88	childhood_educ	0		✓	0.00557	0	0
88	childhood_educ	0		✗	0.994	0	0
89	__NUM___million	3		✓	0.0193	0	0.00139
89	__NUM___million	3		✗	0.979	0	0
90	local_commun	11		✓	0.0607	0	0
90	local_commun	11		✗	0.939	0	0
91	commun_colleg	0		✓	0.00279	0	0
91	commun_colleg	0		✗	0.997	0	0
92	unit_state	46		✓	0.191	0	0.228
92	unit_state	46		✗	0.581	0	0
93	middl_class	45		✓	0.0211	0.000398	0.708
93	middl_class	45		✗	0.0764	0	0.194
94	__MONEY___trillion	12		✓	0	0	0.135
94	__MONEY___trillion	12		✗	0.000199	0	0.865
95	trillion_dollar	13		✓	0	0	0.0472
95	trillion_dollar	13		✗	0	0	0.953
96	american_peopl	67		✓	0.122	0	0.198
96	american_peopl	67		✗	0	0	0.68
97	tax_code	19		✓	0.00139	0.000796	0.166
97	tax_code	19		✗	0.0109	0	0.821
98	higher_incom	19		✓	0.115	0	0.0593
98	higher_incom	19		✗	0.00935	0	0.816
99	higher_tax	3		✓	0	0	0.131
99	higher_tax	3		✗	0.00517	0	0.864
100	tax_break	19		✓	0	0	0.0649
100	tax_break	19		✗	0	0	0.935
101	same_rate	18		✓	0	0	0.0633
101	same_rate	18		✗	0	0	0.937
102	bill_clinton	4		✓	0	0	0.0155
102	bill_clinton	4		✗	0	0	0.984
103	same_rate	5		✓	0	0	0.0189
103	same_rate	5		✗	0	0	0.981
104	__NUM___million	8		✓	0.00239	0	0.0271
104	__NUM___million	8		✗	0	0	0.971
105	make_sens	23		✓	0.00498	0.000199	0.0764
105	make_sens	23		✗	0.000597	0	0.918
106	tax_cut	15		✓	0.000199	0	0.0531
106	tax_cut	15		✗	0	0	0.947
107	presid_clinton	25		✓	0.00199	0	0.0834
107	presid_clinton	25		✗	0	0	0.915
108	import_thing	46		✓	0.00856	0.000199	0.147
108	import_thing	46		✗	0	0	0.845
109	__MONEY___trillion	34		✓	0	0	0.123
109	__MONEY___trillion	34		✗	0	0	0.877
110	spend___MONEY__	67		✓	0	0	0.219
110	spend___MONEY__	67		✗	0	0	0.781
111	__MONEY___trillion	0		✓	0	0	0.00418
111	__MONEY___trillion	0		✗	0	0	0.996
112	tax_cut	2		✓	0.000199	0	0.00756
112	tax_cut	2		✗	0	0	0.992
113	middl_class	81		✓	0.00139	0	0.269
113	middl_class	81		✗	0	0	0.73
114	class_famili	0		✓	0	0	0.00318
114	class_famili	0		✗	0.00139	0	0.995
115	tax_cut	20		✓	0	0	0.0697
115	tax_cut	20		✗	0	0	0.93
116	head_start	16		✓	0.000199	0	0.0589
116	head_start	16		✗	0	0	0.941
117	health_insur	4		✓	0.0133	0	0.0167
117	health_insur	4		✗	0.000398	0	0.97
118	insur_compani	53		✓	0.0107	0	0.169
118	insur_compani	53		✗	0.0135	0	0.806
119	long_haul	22		✓	0.000796	0	0.0764
119	long_haul	22		✗	0.0223	0	0.9
120	health_care	11		✓	0.0111	0	0.0426
120	health_care	11		✗	0.0217	0	0.925
121	social_secur	27		✓	0.00378	0	0.124
121	social_secur	27		✗	0.00139	0	0.871
122	wall_street	16		✓	0.0559	0	0.0539
122	wall_street	16		✗	0.00358	0	0.887
123	__NUM___year_ago	26		✓	0.428	0	0.0488
123	__NUM___year_ago	26		✗	0.0511	0	0.472
124	bin_laden	47		✓	0.146	0	0.166
124	bin_laden	47		✗	0.31	0	0.378
125	domest_polici	78		✓	0.0277	0.000597	0.525
125	domest_polici	78		✗	0.0436	0	0.403
126	foreign_affair	9		✓	0.0141	0.000199	0.0394
126	foreign_affair	9		✗	0.0575	0.000597	0.888
127	joint_chief	59		✓	0.00299	0	0.242
127	joint_chief	59		✗	0.00517	0	0.75
128	tax_cut	107		✓	0.00478	0.000398	0.348
128	tax_cut	107		✗	0	0	0.647
129	health_insur	27		✓	0.0195	0	0.087
129	health_insur	27		✗	0.00358	0	0.89
130	borrow_monei	53		✓	0.651	0	0.0543
130	borrow_monei	53		✗	0.00955	0	0.285
131	young_peopl	32		✓	0.137	0	0.0736
131	young_peopl	32		✗	0.534	0	0.255
132	person_respons	18		✓	0.0362	0	0.319
132	person_respons	18		✗	0.335	0	0.31
133	drive_forc	37		✓	0	0	0.371
133	drive_forc	37		✗	0.000199	0	0.629
134	free_enterpris	3		✓	0	0	0.000199
134	free_enterpris	3		✗	0	0	1
135	enterpris_system	0		✓	0	0	0
135	enterpris_system	0		✗	0	0	1
136	free_enterpris	6		✓	0	0	0
136	free_enterpris	6		✗	0	0	1
137	enterpris_system	0		✓	0	0	0
137	enterpris_system	0		✗	0	0	1
138	futur_gener	34		✓	0.392	0	0.000597
138	futur_gener	34		✗	0	0	0.607
139	__NUM___year_ago	51		✓	0.668	0	0.0243
139	__NUM___year_ago	51		✗	0.307	0	0.000796
140	insur_compani	56		✓	0.231	0	0.0291
140	insur_compani	56		✗	0.73	0	0.0101
141	health_insur	40		✓	0.0107	0	0.00577
141	health_insur	40		✗	0.955	0	0.0289
142	insur_plan	0		✓	0.000199	0	0.000199
142	insur_plan	0		✗	0.965	0	0.0344
143	pai_back	21		✓	0.914	0.00836	0.0167
143	pai_back	21		✗	0.0525	0	0.00876
144	pledg_allegi	41		✓	0.25	0	0
144	pledg_allegi	41		✗	0.75	0	0
145	turn_back	71		✓	0.288	0	0
145	turn_back	71		✗	0.712	0	0
146	special_interest	69		✓	0.283	0	0
146	special_interest	69		✗	0.717	0	0
147	__MONEY___million	9		✓	0.0426	0.000199	0.00179
147	__MONEY___million	9		✗	0.955	0	0
148	neg_ad	6		✓	0.0342	0	0
148	neg_ad	6		✗	0.966	0	0
149	health_care	30		✓	0.128	0.000199	0.00498
149	health_care	30		✗	0.866	0	0
150	make_decis	16		✓	0.0726	0	0.000199
150	make_decis	16		✗	0.927	0	0.000597
151	young_peopl	54		✓	0.24	0	0.00776
151	young_peopl	54		✗	0.752	0	0.000398
152	phone_call	108		✓	0.444	0	0
152	phone_call	108		✗	0.556	0	0
153	good_job	56		✓	0.242	0	0.00318
153	good_job	56		✗	0.754	0	0
154	good_teacher	13		✓	0.0607	0	0
154	good_teacher	13		✗	0.939	0	0
155	young_peopl	8		✓	0.0382	0	0
155	young_peopl	8		✗	0.962	0	0
156	troop_home	10		✓	0.0456	0	0
156	troop_home	10		✗	0.954	0	0
157	work_hard	25		✓	0.112	0	0.00119
157	work_hard	25		✗	0.886	0	0
158	unit_state	33		✓	0.142	0	0.00159
158	unit_state	33		✗	0.857	0	0
159	god_bless	9		✓	0.0448	0	0
159	god_bless	9		✗	0.955	0	0
160	move_forward	7		✓	0.0378	0.000199	0.0187
160	move_forward	7		✗	0.943	0	0
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	1

Barack Obama

Cue-lag representation