Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	great_time	178		✓	0.976	0.0121	0.0119
1	great_time	178		✗	0	0	0
2	ic_cream	25		✓	0.0874	0.000995	0.0227
2	ic_cream	25		✗	0.872	0.00995	0.00657
3	polit_parti	190		✓	0.752	0	0.000995
3	polit_parti	190		✗	0.247	0	0
4	vote_booth	43		✓	0.186	0	0
4	vote_booth	43		✗	0.814	0	0
5	__NUM___year_ago	35		✓	0.158	0	0.00657
5	__NUM___year_ago	35		✗	0.835	0	0
6	middl_class	41		✓	0.176	0.000199	0.0386
6	middl_class	41		✗	0.781	0	0.00438
7	work_hard	16		✓	0.0959	0	0.00478
7	work_hard	16		✗	0.882	0	0.0177
8	health_care	51		✓	0.204	0.000398	0.0537
8	health_care	51		✗	0.729	0	0.0133
9	american_idea	47		✓	0.199	0	0.0728
9	american_idea	47		✗	0.688	0	0.0398
10	credit_card	103		✓	0.00577	0	0.921
10	credit_card	103		✗	0.00438	0	0.0691
11	health_care	24		✓	0.145	0	0.0714
11	health_care	24		✗	0.00876	0	0.774
12	middl_class	24		✓	0.0911	0	0.0732
12	middl_class	24		✗	0.127	0	0.708
13	class_famili	0		✓	0.00736	0	0.00279
13	class_famili	0		✗	0.217	0	0.773
14	work_harder	4		✓	0.514	0	0.00418
14	work_harder	4		✗	0.219	0	0.263
15	econom_crisi	22		✓	0.0826	0	0.0716
15	econom_crisi	22		✗	0.614	0	0.232
16	american_dream	30		✓	0.398	0	0
16	american_dream	30		✗	0.601	0	0.000597
17	__NUM___year_ago	10		✓	0.046	0	0.000199
17	__NUM___year_ago	10		✗	0.954	0	0
18	__NUM___year_ago	16		✓	0.0768	0	0.00139
18	__NUM___year_ago	16		✗	0.922	0	0
19	work_hard	27		✓	0.118	0	0.00995
19	work_hard	27		✗	0.871	0	0.000398
20	develop_countri	66		✓	0.247	0.000995	0.113
20	develop_countri	66		✗	0.633	0	0.00597
21	unit_state	78		✓	0.366	0	0.0673
21	unit_state	78		✗	0.55	0	0.0167
22	work_hard	18		✓	0.0806	0	0.0458
22	work_hard	18		✗	0.806	0	0.0679
23	__NUM___year	27		✓	0.0521	0	0.445
23	__NUM___year	27		✗	0.401	0	0.102
24	auto_industri	10		✓	0.0175	0	0.163
24	auto_industri	10		✗	0.292	0	0.528
25	health_care	3		✓	0.224	0	0.00697
25	health_care	3		✗	0.304	0	0.465
26	young_peopl	12		✓	0.445	0	0.00338
26	young_peopl	12		✗	0.494	0	0.0575
27	hard_work	15		✓	0.111	0	0.00179
27	hard_work	15		✗	0.876	0	0.0107
28	unit_state	32		✓	0.147	0	0.00338
28	unit_state	32		✗	0.845	0	0.00378
29	run_mate	8		✓	0.036	0	0.00179
29	run_mate	8		✗	0.957	0	0.00557
30	good_peopl	16		✓	0.077	0	0.00478
30	good_peopl	16		✗	0.915	0	0.00358
31	roll_back	39		✓	0	0	0.991
31	roll_back	39		✗	0.00219	0	0.00637
32	wall_street	9		✓	0.000597	0	0.033
32	wall_street	9		✗	0.000597	0	0.966
33	tax_break	31		✓	0	0	0.105
33	tax_break	31		✗	0	0	0.895
34	web_site	42		✓	0.000398	0	0.136
34	web_site	42		✗	0	0	0.863
35	econom_plan	12		✓	0	0	0.0432
35	econom_plan	12		✗	0	0	0.957
36	__MONEY___trillion	4		✓	0	0	0.0183
36	__MONEY___trillion	4		✗	0	0	0.982
37	tax_cut	1		✓	0.000199	0	0.00657
37	tax_cut	1		✗	0	0	0.993
38	run_mate	23		✓	0.207	0	0.0695
38	run_mate	23		✗	0	0	0.723
39	put_forward	5		✓	0.0189	0	0.0183
39	put_forward	5		✗	0.198	0	0.765
40	pretti_good	25		✓	0.526	0	0.0273
40	pretti_good	25		✗	0.188	0	0.258
41	good_deal	0		✓	0.00736	0.000199	0.000995
41	good_deal	0		✗	0.711	0	0.28
42	pai___NUM___percent	3		✓	0.0101	0.00179	0.086
42	pai___NUM___percent	3		✗	0.624	0.000199	0.278
43	tax_plan	26		✓	0	0	0.676
43	tax_plan	26		✗	0	0	0.324
44	rais_tax	3		✓	0	0.000199	0.0103
44	rais_tax	3		✗	0	0	0.989
45	middl_class	2		✓	0	0	0.00856
45	middl_class	2		✗	0	0.000199	0.991
46	class_famili	0		✓	0	0.000199	0.00418
46	class_famili	0		✗	0	0	0.996
47	media_outlet	30		✓	0.0257	0.000199	0.0927
47	media_outlet	30		✗	0.000199	0	0.881
48	middl_class	49		✓	0.00458	0	0.185
48	middl_class	49		✗	0.00179	0	0.808
49	tax_cut	10		✓	0	0	0.0442
49	tax_cut	10		✗	0	0	0.956
50	averag_person	10		✓	0	0	0.0374
50	averag_person	10		✗	0	0	0.963
51	__MONEY___million	6		✓	0.000796	0	0.0259
51	__MONEY___million	6		✗	0	0	0.973
52	tax_cut	6		✓	0	0.000199	0.0259
52	tax_cut	6		✗	0.000199	0	0.974
53	middl_class	62		✓	0.0169	0.000199	0.211
53	middl_class	62		✗	0	0	0.772
54	creat_job	32		✓	0.00617	0	0.12
54	creat_job	32		✗	0.00338	0	0.87
55	middl_class	27		✓	0.0203	0	0.0975
55	middl_class	27		✗	0.00577	0	0.876
56	move_forward	6		✓	0.00935	0	0.0229
56	move_forward	6		✗	0.0239	0	0.944
57	econom_plan	60		✓	0.00259	0	0.218
57	econom_plan	60		✗	0.000796	0	0.779
58	prescript_drug	114		✓	0.995	0	0.000398
58	prescript_drug	114		✗	0.00219	0	0.00199
59	bui_insur	52		✓	0.00577	0	0
59	bui_insur	52		✗	0.994	0	0
60	health_care	39		✓	0.0406	0	0.00159
60	health_care	39		✗	0.958	0	0
61	good_deal	13		✓	0.0484	0	0.000796
61	good_deal	13		✗	0.95	0	0.000995
62	prescript_drug	57		✓	0.0251	0	0
62	prescript_drug	57		✗	0.975	0	0
63	afford_care_act	12		✓	0.000796	0	0
63	afford_care_act	12		✗	0.999	0	0
64	bottom_line	34		✓	0.00259	0	0.000398
64	bottom_line	34		✗	0.997	0	0
65	save_monei	6		✓	0.000398	0	0.000796
65	save_monei	6		✗	0.998	0	0.000398
66	insur_compani	13		✓	0.000796	0	0.115
66	insur_compani	13		✗	0.883	0	0.000995
67	tax_cut	16		✓	0	0.000398	0.887
67	tax_cut	16		✗	0.00119	0	0.112
68	rich_folk	2		✓	0	0	0.0139
68	rich_folk	2		✗	0.000199	0	0.986
69	tax_cut	5		✓	0.000597	0	0.0185
69	tax_cut	5		✗	0	0	0.981
70	__NUM___year_ago	85		✓	0.136	0	0.243
70	__NUM___year_ago	85		✗	0.000199	0	0.621
71	middl_class	11		✓	0.000796	0	0.161
71	middl_class	11		✗	0.00716	0	0.831
72	class_famili	0		✓	0	0	0.00697
72	class_famili	0		✗	0.00378	0	0.989
73	lower_tax	12		✓	0	0	0.0426
73	lower_tax	12		✗	0	0	0.957
74	middl_class	2		✓	0	0	0.0101
74	middl_class	2		✗	0	0	0.99
75	class_famili	0		✓	0.000199	0	0.00239
75	class_famili	0		✗	0	0	0.997
76	pai___MONEY__	40		✓	0.000398	0.00279	0.13
76	pai___MONEY__	40		✗	0	0	0.867
77	feder_tax	3		✓	0.000597	0.048	0.0113
77	feder_tax	3		✗	0.000199	0.00279	0.937
78	presid_obama	2		✓	0.0945	0.674	0.00219
78	presid_obama	2		✗	0.000995	0.0517	0.177
79	small_busi	47		✓	0.000796	0.142	0.0348
79	small_busi	47		✗	0.000796	0.72	0.102
80	incom_tax	16		✓	0	0.00955	0.0123
80	incom_tax	16		✗	0	0.857	0.121
81	full_disclosur	21		✓	0.0225	0.00139	0.0533
81	full_disclosur	21		✗	0.000597	0.799	0.123
82	tax_cut	21		✓	0.000398	0.00139	0.32
82	tax_cut	21		✗	0.000796	0.537	0.141
83	top___NUM___percent	57		✓	0	0	0.621
83	top___NUM___percent	57		✗	0	0.00338	0.375
84	trillion_dollar	32		✓	0	0	0.113
84	trillion_dollar	32		✗	0	0	0.887
85	middl_class	32		✓	0.000199	0	0.107
85	middl_class	32		✗	0	0	0.893
86	class_famili	0		✓	0	0	0.00259
86	class_famili	0		✗	0.000199	0	0.997
87	bill_clinton	32		✓	0	0	0.1
87	bill_clinton	32		✗	0	0	0.9
88	pretti_good	10		✓	0.0105	0	0.0408
88	pretti_good	10		✗	0	0	0.949
89	creat___NUM__	2		✓	0.000199	0	0.0157
89	creat___NUM__	2		✗	0.00358	0	0.98
90	__NUM___million	0		✓	0.000995	0	0.00418
90	__NUM___million	0		✗	0.00358	0	0.991
91	construct_worker	40		✓	0.00458	0	0.13
91	construct_worker	40		✗	0.000796	0	0.865
92	extra_monei	13		✓	0	0	0.0517
92	extra_monei	13		✗	0	0	0.948
93	basic_necess	22		✓	0.00398	0	0.073
93	basic_necess	22		✗	0	0	0.923
94	__NUM___year	19		✓	0.0394	0	0.0693
94	__NUM___year	19		✗	0.00338	0	0.888
95	unit_state	131		✓	0.0983	0	0.391
95	unit_state	131		✗	0.00637	0	0.505
96	auto_industri	14		✓	0	0	0.146
96	auto_industri	14		✗	0.00617	0	0.848
97	american_worker	23		✓	0.000597	0	0.0846
97	american_worker	23		✗	0.000398	0	0.914
98	auto_industri	8		✓	0	0	0.0291
98	auto_industri	8		✗	0	0	0.971
99	privat_sector	9		✓	0	0	0.0285
99	privat_sector	9		✗	0	0	0.972
100	tax_break	37		✓	0	0	0.12
100	tax_break	37		✗	0	0	0.88
101	job_oversea	5		✓	0	0	0.0171
101	job_oversea	5		✗	0	0	0.983
102	tax_break	12		✓	0	0	0.0378
102	tax_break	12		✗	0	0	0.962
103	unit_state	21		✓	0.00836	0	0.0673
103	unit_state	21		✗	0	0	0.924
104	american_worker	5		✓	0.000398	0	0.0205
104	american_worker	5		✗	0.00338	0	0.976
105	wind_energi	35		✓	0	0	0.0919
105	wind_energi	35		✗	0	0	0.908
106	renew_energi	33		✓	0	0	0.00199
106	renew_energi	33		✗	0	0	0.998
107	good_american	3		✓	0	0	0
107	good_american	3		✗	0	0	1
108	american_job	0		✓	0	0	0
108	american_job	0		✗	0	0	1
109	foreign_oil	12		✓	0	0	0.000199
109	foreign_oil	12		✗	0	0	1
110	__MONEY___billion	12		✓	0	0	0.000597
110	__MONEY___billion	12		✗	0	0	0.999
111	taxpay_subsidi	2		✓	0	0	0.000199
111	taxpay_subsidi	2		✗	0	0	1
112	oil_compani	2		✓	0	0	0
112	oil_compani	2		✗	0	0	1
113	make_monei	3		✓	0	0	0
113	make_monei	3		✗	0	0	1
114	tax_break	11		✓	0.000796	0	0.00677
114	tax_break	11		✗	0	0	0.992
115	renew_energi	6		✓	0.0153	0	0.000398
115	renew_energi	6		✗	0.000796	0	0.983
116	unit_state	5		✓	0.303	0	0.0125
116	unit_state	5		✗	0.0151	0	0.669
117	bin_laden	39		✓	0.704	0	0.0287
117	bin_laden	39		✗	0.264	0	0.00398
118	troop_home	16		✓	0.0919	0	0.00159
118	troop_home	16		✗	0.896	0	0.0105
119	tax_break	28		✓	0.0157	0	0.848
119	tax_break	28		✗	0.126	0	0.00995
120	put_peopl	86		✓	0.841	0	0.0195
120	put_peopl	86		✗	0.0894	0	0.0505
121	rural_commun	17		✓	0.136	0	0.00159
121	rural_commun	17		✗	0.857	0	0.00577
122	educ_system	48		✓	0.22	0	0
122	educ_system	48		✗	0.78	0	0
123	local_school	9		✓	0.041	0	0
123	local_school	9		✗	0.959	0	0
124	school_district	0		✓	0.00398	0	0
124	school_district	0		✗	0.996	0	0
125	creat___NUM__	15		✓	0.0591	0	0.0314
125	creat___NUM__	15		✗	0.909	0	0
126	__NUM___million	0		✓	0.00438	0	0.000597
126	__NUM___million	0		✗	0.965	0	0.0297
127	commun_colleg	8		✓	0.071	0	0
127	commun_colleg	8		✗	0.929	0	0
128	higher_educ	30		✓	0.151	0	0
128	higher_educ	30		✗	0.849	0	0
129	__NUM___centuri	11		✓	0.0503	0	0.000597
129	__NUM___centuri	11		✗	0.949	0	0
130	young_peopl	62		✓	0.252	0	0.00119
130	young_peopl	62		✗	0.746	0	0
131	prescript_drug	26		✓	0.0742	0	0
131	prescript_drug	26		✗	0.926	0	0
132	prevent_care	3		✓	0	0	0
132	prevent_care	3		✗	1	0	0
133	health_insur	27		✓	0.00239	0	0
133	health_insur	27		✗	0.998	0	0
134	suprem_court	7		✓	0.00657	0	0
134	suprem_court	7		✗	0.993	0	0
135	move_forward	25		✓	0.165	0.000398	0.0585
135	move_forward	25		✗	0.776	0	0
136	health_care	60		✓	0.261	0.000398	0.122
136	health_care	60		✗	0.586	0	0.0314
137	__NUM___month	25		✓	0.297	0	0.272
137	__NUM___month	25		✗	0.304	0	0.126
138	__MONEY___million	22		✓	0.0521	0.000398	0.183
138	__MONEY___million	22		✗	0.402	0	0.363
139	econom_plan	68		✓	0.00119	0	0.579
139	econom_plan	68		✗	0.000199	0	0.419
140	creat_job	20		✓	0.0297	0	0.0687
140	creat_job	20		✗	0.000796	0	0.901
141	middl_class	18		✓	0.212	0.000398	0.0424
141	middl_class	18		✗	0.0281	0	0.717
142	american_peopl	34		✓	0.794	0	0.000199
142	american_peopl	34		✗	0.201	0	0.00438
143	peopl_start	0		✓	0.00796	0	0
143	peopl_start	0		✗	0.992	0	0.000398
144	pai_attent	1		✓	0.00995	0	0.000995
144	pai_attent	1		✗	0.989	0	0.000398
145	work_hard	42		✓	0.178	0	0.00318
145	work_hard	42		✗	0.818	0	0.000597
146	same_kind	9		✓	0.0428	0	0.00159
146	same_kind	9		✗	0.953	0	0.00259
147	singl_mom	13		✓	0.0818	0	0
147	singl_mom	13		✗	0.918	0	0
148	same_kind	3		✓	0.0185	0	0.00179
148	same_kind	3		✗	0.98	0	0
149	collar_worker	17		✓	0.0963	0	0
149	collar_worker	17		✗	0.904	0	0
150	hard_time	14		✓	0.0625	0.00259	0.0322
150	hard_time	14		✗	0.903	0	0
151	turn_back	71		✓	0.325	0	0
151	turn_back	71		✗	0.675	0	0.000199
152	good_job	6		✓	0.0281	0.000199	0
152	good_job	6		✗	0.972	0	0.000199
153	good_teacher	5		✓	0.0277	0	0
153	good_teacher	5		✗	0.972	0	0
154	bring_home	16		✓	0.0702	0	0
154	bring_home	16		✗	0.93	0	0
155	work_hard	24		✓	0.11	0	0.00119
155	work_hard	24		✗	0.889	0	0
156	phone_call	29		✓	0.12	0	0
156	phone_call	29		✗	0.88	0	0
157	unit_state	35		✓	0.154	0	0.000995
157	unit_state	35		✗	0.845	0	0
158	god_bless	9		✓	0.0466	0	0
158	god_bless	9		✗	0.953	0	0
159	unit_state	5		✓	0.0247	0	0.00677
159	unit_state	5		✗	0.969	0	0
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	5

Barack Obama

Cue-lag representation