Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	high_school	139		✓	1	0	0
1	high_school	139		✗	0	0	0
2	good_luck	6		✓	0.0297	0	0.000597
2	good_luck	6		✗	0.97	0	0
3	attornei_gener	84		✓	0.364	0	0.000199
3	attornei_gener	84		✗	0.635	0	0
4	feel_free	18		✓	0.0828	0	0
4	feel_free	18		✗	0.917	0	0
5	abraham_lincoln	38		✓	0.171	0	0.00119
5	abraham_lincoln	38		✗	0.828	0	0
6	neg_ad	93		✓	0.384	0	0
6	neg_ad	93		✗	0.616	0	0
7	polit_parti	147		✓	0.547	0	0.000398
7	polit_parti	147		✗	0.453	0	0
8	polit_campaign	59		✓	0.249	0	0
8	polit_campaign	59		✗	0.751	0	0
9	state_senat	62		✓	0.265	0	0
9	state_senat	62		✗	0.735	0	0
10	big_citi	96		✓	0.397	0	0
10	big_citi	96		✗	0.603	0	0
11	small_town	2		✓	0.0143	0	0
11	small_town	2		✗	0.986	0	0
12	live_wage	46		✓	0.196	0	0
12	live_wage	46		✗	0.804	0	0
13	presidenti_campaign	45		✓	0.199	0	0.0267
13	presidenti_campaign	45		✗	0.775	0	0
14	town_hall	67		✓	0.299	0	0.00239
14	town_hall	67		✗	0.699	0	0.000199
15	same_thing	28		✓	0.12	0	0.121
15	same_thing	28		✗	0.758	0	0.00179
16	nation_media	29		✓	0.167	0.000398	0.0225
16	nation_media	29		✗	0.748	0	0.0623
17	state_senat	43		✓	0.272	0	0
17	state_senat	43		✗	0.728	0	0.000199
18	meet_peopl	25		✓	0.115	0	0
18	meet_peopl	25		✗	0.885	0	0
19	world_war_ii	36		✓	0.153	0	0
19	world_war_ii	36		✗	0.847	0	0
20	assembl_line	20		✓	0.0913	0	0.00119
20	assembl_line	20		✗	0.907	0	0
21	gi_bill	12		✓	0.0521	0	0
21	gi_bill	12		✗	0.948	0	0
22	singl_mom	13		✓	0.0633	0	0
22	singl_mom	13		✗	0.937	0	0
23	same_time	42		✓	0.184	0	0
23	same_time	42		✗	0.816	0	0
24	collar_job	23		✓	0.107	0	0
24	collar_job	23		✗	0.893	0	0
25	american_ideal	51		✓	0.216	0	0.00239
25	american_ideal	51		✗	0.782	0	0
26	same_stori	46		✓	0.216	0.000199	0.000199
26	same_stori	46		✗	0.784	0	0
27	hard_work	73		✓	0.3	0	0.00915
27	hard_work	73		✗	0.691	0	0
28	health_care	59		✓	0.235	0.000796	0.0543
28	health_care	59		✗	0.705	0	0.00418
29	__NUM___year	39		✓	0.18	0	0.0496
29	__NUM___year	39		✗	0.734	0	0.0358
30	vend_machin	74		✓	0.385	0	0
30	vend_machin	74		✗	0.615	0	0
31	spend_time	47		✓	0.195	0.000199	0.00159
31	spend_time	47		✗	0.803	0	0
32	middl_class	41		✓	0.167	0.000995	0.102
32	middl_class	41		✗	0.729	0	0.00119
33	work_harder	97		✓	0.439	0	0.0133
33	work_harder	97		✗	0.541	0	0.00736
34	health_care	17		✓	0.0786	0	0.0314
34	health_care	17		✗	0.872	0	0.0179
35	__NUM___year	28		✓	0.115	0	0.0903
35	__NUM___year	28		✗	0.753	0	0.0422
36	econom_crisi	26		✓	0.123	0	0.0645
36	econom_crisi	26		✗	0.709	0	0.104
37	tough_time	13		✓	0.202	0	0.000796
37	tough_time	13		✗	0.783	0	0.0137
38	fellow_american	14		✓	0.0772	0	0.000796
38	fellow_american	14		✗	0.92	0	0.00159
39	american_dream	13		✓	0.0599	0	0.000199
39	american_dream	13		✗	0.94	0	0
40	work_peopl	12		✓	0.0637	0	0.00697
40	work_peopl	12		✗	0.929	0	0
41	basic_idea	3		✓	0.0173	0	0.00259
41	basic_idea	3		✗	0.974	0	0.00617
42	work_hard	56		✓	0.238	0	0.0157
42	work_hard	56		✗	0.744	0	0.00179
43	middl_class	21		✓	0.0921	0.000199	0.0318
43	middl_class	21		✗	0.862	0	0.0135
44	put_peopl	34		✓	0.174	0	0.00736
44	put_peopl	34		✗	0.805	0	0.0129
45	work_hard	41		✓	0.195	0	0.00398
45	work_hard	41		✗	0.799	0	0.00199
46	unit_state	38		✓	0.169	0	0.0187
46	unit_state	38		✗	0.81	0	0.00239
47	econom_futur	68		✓	0.281	0.000597	0.0551
47	econom_futur	68		✗	0.656	0	0.00776
48	tax_cut	49		✓	0.0945	0.00896	0.489
48	tax_cut	49		✗	0.359	0.000597	0.0482
49	commun_colleg	30		✓	0.603	0	0
49	commun_colleg	30		✗	0.397	0	0
50	pell_grant	2		✓	0.0119	0	0.000398
50	pell_grant	2		✗	0.988	0	0
51	cut_back	2		✓	0.00259	0	0.765
51	cut_back	2		✗	0.23	0	0.00219
52	middl_class	12		✓	0.00836	0	0.214
52	middl_class	12		✗	0.044	0	0.733
53	roll_back	13		✓	0.000199	0	0.0935
53	roll_back	13		✗	0	0	0.906
54	insur_compani	10		✓	0.00458	0	0.0332
54	insur_compani	10		✗	0.000199	0	0.962
55	oil_compani	2		✓	0	0	0.00995
55	oil_compani	2		✗	0.00478	0	0.985
56	credit_card	68		✓	0	0	0.248
56	credit_card	68		✗	0	0	0.752
57	tax_cut	9		✓	0	0	0.0326
57	tax_cut	9		✗	0	0	0.967
58	middl_class	12		✓	0.0111	0	0.0426
58	middl_class	12		✗	0	0	0.946
59	wall_street	7		✓	0.0121	0	0.0281
59	wall_street	7		✗	0.00975	0	0.95
60	singl_dai	68		✓	0.593	0	0.0884
60	singl_dai	68		✗	0.0143	0	0.304
61	middl_class	4		✓	0.0149	0	0.0555
61	middl_class	4		✗	0.546	0	0.384
62	economi_grow	6		✓	0.0163	0	0.0476
62	economi_grow	6		✗	0.51	0	0.426
63	conveni_store	91		✓	0.114	0.0129	0.435
63	conveni_store	91		✗	0.137	0	0.301
64	pai_tax	52		✓	0.000597	0.000199	0.401
64	pai_tax	52		✗	0.00378	0.000199	0.594
65	__NUM___year	24		✓	0.0103	0	0.0874
65	__NUM___year	24		✗	0.00139	0	0.901
66	tax_relief	21		✓	0.000199	0.0157	0.0842
66	tax_relief	21		✗	0.000597	0	0.899
67	__NUM___year	55		✓	0.307	0	0.137
67	__NUM___year	55		✗	0.000796	0	0.555
68	student_loan	33		✓	0.243	0	0.0673
68	student_loan	33		✗	0.255	0	0.434
69	tax_hike	97		✓	0.00458	0.000199	0.644
69	tax_hike	97		✗	0.00537	0	0.346
70	tax_cut	190		✓	0.000398	0.000398	0.586
70	tax_cut	190		✗	0	0	0.413
71	top___NUM___percent	9		✓	0	0	0.0326
71	top___NUM___percent	9		✗	0	0	0.967
72	tax_rate	20		✓	0	0.000199	0.0657
72	tax_rate	20		✗	0	0	0.934
73	bill_clinton	6		✓	0	0	0.0245
73	bill_clinton	6		✗	0	0	0.976
74	__NUM___million	16		✓	0.00716	0	0.0563
74	__NUM___million	16		✗	0	0	0.937
75	pai_tax	35		✓	0	0	0.122
75	pai_tax	35		✗	0	0	0.878
76	tax_break	18		✓	0	0	0.0571
76	tax_break	18		✗	0	0	0.943
77	warren_buffett	4		✓	0	0	0.0159
77	warren_buffett	4		✗	0	0	0.984
78	tax_break	2		✓	0	0	0.0129
78	tax_break	2		✗	0	0	0.987
79	mitt_romnei	4		✓	0	0	0.0149
79	mitt_romnei	4		✗	0	0	0.985
80	tax_break	2		✓	0.000199	0	0.0107
80	tax_break	2		✗	0	0	0.989
81	trillion_dollar	14		✓	0	0	0.0488
81	trillion_dollar	14		✗	0	0	0.951
82	tax_break	93		✓	0.000199	0	0.313
82	tax_break	93		✗	0	0	0.687
83	make_sens	24		✓	0.00537	0	0.0752
83	make_sens	24		✗	0	0	0.919
84	tax_cut	23		✓	0	0	0.0814
84	tax_cut	23		✗	0	0	0.919
85	bush_tax_cut	11		✓	0	0	0.0404
85	bush_tax_cut	11		✗	0	0	0.96
86	__MONEY___trillion	7		✓	0	0	0.0237
86	__MONEY___trillion	7		✗	0	0	0.976
87	tax_cut	3		✓	0	0	0.0143
87	tax_cut	3		✗	0	0	0.986
88	big_part	13		✓	0.000398	0	0.0448
88	big_part	13		✗	0	0	0.955
89	make_sens	28		✓	0.0213	0	0.0854
89	make_sens	28		✗	0.000199	0	0.893
90	work_hard	16		✓	0.0121	0	0.0569
90	work_hard	16		✗	0.0167	0	0.914
91	tax_hike	5		✓	0.000398	0	0.0424
91	tax_hike	5		✗	0.00139	0	0.956
92	same_thing	29		✓	0.0183	0	0.101
92	same_thing	29		✗	0.000796	0	0.88
93	middl_class	41		✓	0.0131	0	0.149
93	middl_class	41		✗	0.00537	0	0.832
94	vast_major	29		✓	0.00378	0.000199	0.114
94	vast_major	29		✗	0.00219	0	0.88
95	tax_cut	11		✓	0.00736	0.000199	0.0372
95	tax_cut	11		✗	0.00418	0.000199	0.951
96	work_hard	19		✓	0.575	0	0.0261
96	work_hard	19		✗	0.0103	0	0.389
97	make_progress	51		✓	0.287	0	0.0734
97	make_progress	51		✗	0.439	0	0.201
98	middl_class	57		✓	0.0308	0.000398	0.671
98	middl_class	57		✗	0.0794	0	0.218
99	auto_industri	18		✓	0	0	0.163
99	auto_industri	18		✗	0.00239	0	0.834
100	__NUM___million_job	10		✓	0	0	0.0382
100	__NUM___million_job	10		✗	0	0	0.962
101	great_american	31		✓	0.000995	0	0.104
101	great_american	31		✗	0	0	0.895
102	american_industri	0		✓	0	0	0.00299
102	american_industri	0		✗	0	0	0.997
103	great_american	2		✓	0.000199	0	0.00995
103	great_american	2		✗	0	0	0.99
104	american_worker	0		✓	0	0	0.00239
104	american_worker	0		✗	0.000199	0	0.997
105	american_manufactur	9		✓	0	0	0.0338
105	american_manufactur	9		✗	0	0	0.966
106	__NUM___year	2		✓	0.00139	0	0.00836
106	__NUM___year	2		✗	0	0	0.99
107	auto_industri	5		✓	0.00199	0	0.0191
107	auto_industri	5		✗	0.00119	0	0.978
108	de_moin	48		✓	0.445	0.000398	0.0866
108	de_moin	48		✗	0.00199	0	0.466
109	tax_break	21		✓	0.00119	0	0.477
109	tax_break	21		✗	0.00935	0	0.512
110	creat_job	14		✓	0.0101	0	0.0583
110	creat_job	14		✗	0.00776	0	0.924
111	unit_state	5		✓	0.0215	0	0.0165
111	unit_state	5		✗	0.0173	0	0.945
112	auto_industri	39		✓	0.0227	0	0.137
112	auto_industri	39		✗	0.0177	0	0.823
113	unit_state	21		✓	0.663	0	0.0239
113	unit_state	21		✗	0.0368	0	0.277
114	tax_credit	30		✓	0.369	0	0.000995
114	tax_credit	30		✗	0.602	0	0.0283
115	student_loan	29		✓	0.149	0	0.00219
115	student_loan	29		✗	0.848	0	0.000995
116	__NUM___million	7		✓	0.0346	0.000199	0.00259
116	__NUM___million	7		✗	0.961	0	0.00199
117	commun_colleg	18		✓	0.0939	0	0
117	commun_colleg	18		✗	0.906	0	0
118	__NUM___million	34		✓	0.144	0	0.00617
118	__NUM___million	34		✗	0.85	0	0
119	commun_colleg	8		✓	0.0438	0	0
119	commun_colleg	8		✗	0.956	0	0
120	local_busi	10		✓	0.0424	0	0.000199
120	local_busi	10		✗	0.957	0	0
121	higher_educ	7		✓	0.0342	0	0
121	higher_educ	7		✗	0.966	0	0
122	__NUM___centuri	7		✓	0.0402	0	0
122	__NUM___centuri	7		✗	0.96	0	0
123	save___MONEY__	51		✓	0.193	0	0
123	save___MONEY__	51		✗	0.807	0	0
124	hous_market	10		✓	0.00159	0	0
124	hous_market	10		✗	0.998	0	0
125	health_care	38		✓	0.00856	0.000199	0.00119
125	health_care	38		✗	0.99	0	0
126	vast_major	46		✓	0.0257	0	0.00119
126	vast_major	46		✗	0.973	0	0.000398
127	american_feel	2		✓	0.00975	0	0
127	american_feel	2		✗	0.99	0	0
128	health_insur	6		✓	0.00139	0	0
128	health_insur	6		✗	0.999	0	0
129	insur_compani	9		✓	0	0	0
129	insur_compani	9		✗	1	0	0
130	fine_print	7		✓	0.000398	0	0
130	fine_print	7		✗	1	0	0
131	health_insur	5		✓	0.00179	0	0
131	health_insur	5		✗	0.998	0	0
132	bui_health	18		✓	0.00159	0	0
132	bui_health	18		✗	0.998	0	0
133	health_insur	0		✓	0	0	0
133	health_insur	0		✗	1	0	0
134	__NUM___million	11		✓	0.00517	0	0.000597
134	__NUM___million	11		✗	0.994	0	0
135	young_peopl	1		✓	0.000398	0	0.000199
135	young_peopl	1		✗	0.999	0	0.000398
136	insur_plan	12		✓	0.000995	0	0.000398
136	insur_plan	12		✗	0.998	0	0.000597
137	polit_battl	23		✓	0.812	0.000199	0.00259
137	polit_battl	23		✗	0.185	0	0
138	__NUM___year_ago	2		✓	0.158	0	0.000796
138	__NUM___year_ago	2		✗	0.84	0	0.000398
139	__NUM___year_ago	3		✓	0.0177	0	0.000199
139	__NUM___year_ago	3		✗	0.981	0	0.000796
140	move_forward	5		✓	0.0243	0	0.00557
140	move_forward	5		✗	0.969	0	0.000796
141	health_care	15		✓	0.0667	0.000398	0.0304
141	health_care	15		✗	0.898	0	0.00498
142	put_peopl	60		✓	0.248	0	0.138
142	put_peopl	60		✗	0.592	0	0.0213
143	move_forward	69		✓	0.153	0.000199	0.369
143	move_forward	69		✗	0.37	0	0.108
144	cut_spend	59		✓	0.00119	0.000199	0.61
144	cut_spend	59		✗	0.00378	0	0.385
145	__NUM___year	40		✓	0.0392	0	0.129
145	__NUM___year	40		✗	0.00199	0	0.83
146	govern_program	34		✓	0.0259	0	0.122
146	govern_program	34		✗	0.0203	0	0.831
147	__NUM___centuri	21		✓	0.754	0	0.0113
147	__NUM___centuri	21		✗	0.042	0	0.193
148	tax_cut	22		✓	0.000398	0.000597	0.957
148	tax_cut	22		✗	0.00418	0	0.0378
149	past_decad	3		✓	0.000398	0	0.0165
149	past_decad	3		✗	0.00179	0.000597	0.981
150	bring_back	48		✓	0.0151	0	0.162
150	bring_back	48		✗	0.000199	0	0.823
151	construct_worker	4		✓	0.00338	0	0.0189
151	construct_worker	4		✗	0.0135	0	0.964
152	health_care	8		✓	0.00816	0	0.0287
152	health_care	8		✗	0.0149	0	0.948
153	auto_industri	4		✓	0.00199	0	0.0169
153	auto_industri	4		✗	0.0197	0	0.961
154	middl_class	35		✓	0.929	0	0.00498
154	middl_class	35		✗	0.0183	0	0.0482
155	class_life	0		✓	0.0569	0	0
155	class_life	0		✗	0.943	0	0.000398
156	work_hard	34		✓	0.157	0	0.0149
156	work_hard	34		✗	0.827	0	0.000199
157	__NUM___month	120		✓	0.353	0	0.245
157	__NUM___month	120		✗	0.396	0	0.00617
158	econom_theori	58		✓	0.111	0	0.39
158	econom_theori	58		✗	0.309	0	0.19
159	creat_job	75		✓	0.0625	0.000796	0.419
159	creat_job	75		✗	0.0945	0	0.423
160	middl_class	20		✓	0.0665	0.000199	0.0661
160	middl_class	20		✗	0.134	0.000398	0.733
161	american_famili	171		✓	0.894	0.00438	0.0157
161	american_famili	171		✗	0.0726	0	0.0131
162	middl_class	6		✓	0.035	0	0.00418
162	middl_class	6		✗	0.935	0.00279	0.0235
163	bank_account	12		✓	0.0804	0	0.000398
163	bank_account	12		✗	0.915	0.00139	0.00279
164	neg_ad	105		✓	0.429	0	0.000398
164	neg_ad	105		✗	0.57	0	0
165	singl_dai	110		✓	0.425	0	0.00637
165	singl_dai	110		✗	0.568	0	0
166	phone_call	77		✓	0.316	0	0
166	phone_call	77		✗	0.684	0	0
167	god_bless	36		✓	0.153	0	0
167	god_bless	36		✗	0.847	0	0
168	unit_state	5		✓	0.0237	0	0.00517
168	unit_state	5		✗	0.971	0	0
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	3

Barack Obama

Cue-lag representation