Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	lieuten_governor	58		✓	0.985	0.000597	0.0139
1	lieuten_governor	58		✗	0	0	0
2	democrat_parti	41		✓	0.166	0.000199	0.000398
2	democrat_parti	41		✗	0.833	0.000199	0.000199
3	russ_feingold	24		✓	0.074	0.0113	0.145
3	russ_feingold	24		✗	0.769	0.000398	0.000597
4	congression_democrat	52		✓	0.036	0.00796	0.0909
4	congression_democrat	52		✗	0.722	0.00597	0.137
5	short_period	14		✓	0.0239	0.000796	0.0217
5	short_period	14		✗	0.721	0.0109	0.222
6	rais_monei	48		✓	0.722	0.000199	0.00299
6	rais_monei	48		✗	0.244	0	0.0306
7	democrat_presid	50		✓	0.273	0	0.0342
7	democrat_presid	50		✗	0.679	0	0.0131
8	white_hous	24		✓	0.0921	0	0.0434
8	white_hous	24		✗	0.825	0	0.039
9	unit_state	9		✓	0.033	0.000995	0.0326
9	unit_state	9		✗	0.852	0	0.0816
10	presid_bush	30		✓	0.101	0.0217	0.0537
10	presid_bush	30		✗	0.72	0.000995	0.102
11	countri_back	64		✓	0.36	0.000796	0.00179
11	countri_back	64		✗	0.63	0.000796	0.00657
12	pennsylvania_avenu	49		✓	0.188	0.000796	0
12	pennsylvania_avenu	49		✗	0.811	0	0.000199
13	oval_offic	16		✓	0.0651	0	0.000199
13	oval_offic	16		✗	0.935	0	0
14	fellow_citizen	19		✓	0.0758	0	0
14	fellow_citizen	19		✗	0.924	0	0
15	includ___NUM__	2		✓	0.0121	0.00119	0
15	includ___NUM__	2		✗	0.987	0	0
16	health_care	6		✓	0.0322	0.000597	0
16	health_care	6		✗	0.966	0.000796	0
17	energi_crisi	22		✓	0.0915	0	0.000995
17	energi_crisi	22		✗	0.907	0	0
18	georg_bush	63		✓	0.255	0.00119	0.00418
18	georg_bush	63		✗	0.74	0	0
19	bush_presid	0		✓	0.00398	0	0
19	bush_presid	0		✗	0.991	0.000796	0.00398
20	georg_bush	28		✓	0.109	0.000796	0.00398
20	georg_bush	28		✗	0.883	0	0.00299
21	dick_chenei	2		✓	0.0115	0.000199	0
21	dick_chenei	2		✗	0.981	0.000199	0.00657
22	american_dream	76		✓	0.272	0.0151	0
22	american_dream	76		✗	0.712	0	0
23	senat_obama	103		✓	0.349	0	0.0191
23	senat_obama	103		✗	0.632	0	0
24	polic_offic	194		✓	0.572	0.000199	0.00577
24	polic_offic	194		✗	0.421	0	0.000597
25	town_hall	48		✓	0.18	0.0131	0.0426
25	town_hall	48		✗	0.759	0.000199	0.00458
26	__NUM___year	20		✓	0.105	0.000398	0.00239
26	__NUM___year	20		✗	0.864	0.00259	0.0259
27	foster_care	39		✓	0.172	0	0
27	foster_care	39		✗	0.828	0	0
28	care_system	0		✓	0.00279	0	0
28	care_system	0		✗	0.997	0	0
29	health_care	6		✓	0.0237	0.00119	0
29	health_care	6		✗	0.975	0	0
30	educ_system	44		✓	0.171	0	0
30	educ_system	44		✗	0.829	0	0
31	work_hard	33		✓	0.123	0.000398	0
31	work_hard	33		✗	0.877	0	0
32	white_hous	4		✓	0.0205	0	0
32	white_hous	4		✗	0.98	0	0
33	make_progress	19		✓	0.0772	0	0.000199
33	make_progress	19		✗	0.923	0	0
34	children_health	6		✓	0.0273	0	0
34	children_health	6		✗	0.973	0	0
35	health_insur	0		✓	0.00259	0	0
35	health_insur	0		✗	0.997	0	0
36	insur_program	0		✓	0.00458	0	0
36	insur_program	0		✗	0.995	0	0
37	health_care	14		✓	0.0533	0	0
37	health_care	14		✗	0.947	0	0
38	shake_hand	4		✓	0.0185	0	0
38	shake_hand	4		✗	0.981	0	0
39	children_health	39		✓	0.146	0	0
39	children_health	39		✗	0.854	0	0
40	health_insur	0		✓	0.00358	0	0
40	health_insur	0		✗	0.996	0	0
41	insur_program	0		✓	0.00537	0	0
41	insur_program	0		✗	0.995	0	0
42	young_boi	5		✓	0.0237	0.000398	0.00239
42	young_boi	5		✗	0.974	0	0
43	town_hall	36		✓	0.119	0.115	0.0547
43	town_hall	36		✗	0.709	0.000398	0.00199
44	rate_mortgag	129		✓	0.00438	0.891	0.000199
44	rate_mortgag	129		✗	0.00378	0.101	0.000199
45	pai___MONEY__	4		✓	0.0109	0.00318	0
45	pai___MONEY__	4		✗	0.00776	0.978	0.000199
46	singl_dai	22		✓	0.528	0.0115	0.000398
46	singl_dai	22		✗	0.0177	0.442	0
47	peopl_live	35		✓	0.203	0.0119	0.00458
47	peopl_live	35		✗	0.468	0.313	0
48	white_hous	83		✓	0.502	0.00159	0.0113
48	white_hous	83		✗	0.478	0.00577	0.00159
49	georg_bush	25		✓	0.108	0.000199	0.00139
49	georg_bush	25		✗	0.884	0.000597	0.00597
50	dick_chenei	2		✓	0.0121	0	0.000199
50	dick_chenei	2		✗	0.981	0.000199	0.00617
51	american_dream	71		✓	0.263	0.00358	0
51	american_dream	71		✗	0.734	0	0
52	work_hard	18		✓	0.0758	0.000597	0
52	work_hard	18		✗	0.923	0.000995	0
53	america_great	9		✓	0.0388	0	0
53	america_great	9		✗	0.961	0.000199	0
54	american_dream	32		✓	0.127	0.00179	0
54	american_dream	32		✗	0.872	0	0
55	__NUM___centuri	4		✓	0.0215	0.000398	0.000995
55	__NUM___centuri	4		✗	0.976	0.00139	0
56	book_call	25		✓	0.0915	0.000995	0.00816
56	book_call	25		✗	0.897	0.00119	0.000796
57	share_prosper	49		✓	0.175	0.0247	0.00259
57	share_prosper	49		✗	0.794	0.00219	0.00159
58	polit_leader	16		✓	0.0599	0.00776	0.0507
58	polit_leader	16		✗	0.855	0.0235	0.00358
59	middl_class	59		✓	0.231	0.119	0.00876
59	middl_class	59		✗	0.602	0.0269	0.0117
60	real_threat	56		✓	0.0802	0.00557	0.618
60	real_threat	56		✗	0.256	0.0211	0.0193
61	hard_work	38		✓	0.697	0.0161	0.000398
61	hard_work	38		✗	0.265	0.00876	0.0123
62	good_job	114		✓	0.396	0.000398	0.000199
62	good_job	114		✗	0.603	0.000199	0
63	trade_polici	32		✓	0.122	0.00299	0.00517
63	trade_polici	32		✗	0.87	0	0
64	tax_polici	7		✓	0.0293	0.00736	0.00139
64	tax_polici	7		✗	0.955	0.00279	0.00418
65	manufactur_base	43		✓	0.082	0	0
65	manufactur_base	43		✗	0.917	0	0.00119
66	energi_polici	56		✓	0.0217	0	0
66	energi_polici	56		✗	0.978	0	0
67	oil_compani	10		✓	0.00219	0	0
67	oil_compani	10		✗	0.998	0	0
68	tax_dollar	13		✓	0.00139	0.000199	0.000199
68	tax_dollar	13		✗	0.998	0	0
69	oil_compani	17		✓	0.00557	0	0
69	oil_compani	17		✗	0.994	0	0
70	renew_energi	18		✓	0.0137	0	0
70	renew_energi	18		✗	0.986	0	0
71	white_hous	18		✓	0.038	0	0.000199
71	white_hous	18		✗	0.962	0	0
72	million_job	35		✓	0.0135	0	0
72	million_job	35		✗	0.986	0	0
73	ten_year	4		✓	0.00139	0	0
73	ten_year	4		✗	0.999	0	0
74	creat_job	28		✓	0.00438	0.000398	0
74	creat_job	28		✗	0.995	0	0
75	solar_power	2		✓	0.000597	0.000199	0
75	solar_power	2		✗	0.999	0.000398	0
76	green_bai	49		✓	0.459	0.0141	0.0888
76	green_bai	49		✗	0.439	0	0
77	health_care	11		✓	0.324	0.000995	0
77	health_care	11		✗	0.672	0.00219	0.000199
78	__NUM___million_peopl	8		✓	0.144	0	0.000995
78	__NUM___million_peopl	8		✗	0.855	0	0
79	american_solut	31		✓	0.152	0.00557	0.0107
79	american_solut	31		✗	0.831	0	0.000796
80	moral_wrong	14		✓	0.126	0	0.000597
80	moral_wrong	14		✗	0.872	0	0.00159
81	__NUM___peopl	4		✓	0.0283	0	0.000199
81	__NUM___peopl	4		✗	0.971	0	0.000597
82	health_insur	6		✓	0.0324	0	0
82	health_insur	6		✗	0.968	0	0
83	insur_compani	26		✓	0.113	0.000796	0
83	insur_compani	26		✗	0.886	0	0
84	univers_health_care	10		✓	0.0758	0	0
84	univers_health_care	10		✗	0.924	0	0
85	univers_health_care	10		✓	0.0501	0	0
85	univers_health_care	10		✗	0.95	0	0
86	democrat_parti	6		✓	0.0299	0	0
86	democrat_parti	6		✗	0.97	0	0
87	univers_health_care	24		✓	0.0943	0	0
87	univers_health_care	24		✗	0.906	0	0
88	gener_elect	11		✓	0.042	0	0.000199
88	gener_elect	11		✗	0.958	0	0
89	univers_health_care	7		✓	0.0304	0	0
89	univers_health_care	7		✗	0.97	0	0
90	special_educ	38		✓	0.137	0	0
90	special_educ	38		✗	0.863	0	0
91	__NUM___year	12		✓	0.0484	0.000597	0.000796
91	__NUM___year	12		✗	0.95	0	0
92	child_left	11		✓	0.045	0	0.000199
92	child_left	11		✗	0.954	0.000597	0
93	student_loan	27		✓	0.0965	0.0219	0.00438
93	student_loan	27		✗	0.877	0.000597	0
94	feder_govern	17		✓	0.0629	0.00975	0.0113
94	feder_govern	17		✗	0.892	0.0203	0.00418
95	common_ground	44		✓	0.15	0.000199	0.216
95	common_ground	44		✗	0.622	0.000199	0.0113
96	big_problem	33		✓	0.0915	0.000597	0.0874
96	big_problem	33		✗	0.613	0	0.208
97	global_warm	6		✓	0.0141	0	0.201
97	global_warm	6		✗	0.493	0	0.292
98	moral_author	53		✓	0.00776	0	0.511
98	moral_author	53		✗	0.0207	0	0.46
99	troop_home	14		✓	0.000398	0	0.0394
99	troop_home	14		✗	0.00239	0	0.958
100	__NUM___dai	17		✓	0	0	0.0191
100	__NUM___dai	17		✗	0	0	0.981
101	arm_servic_committe	7		✓	0	0	0.00955
101	arm_servic_committe	7		✗	0	0	0.99
102	young_men	61		✓	0.316	0	0.045
102	young_men	61		✗	0	0	0.639
103	oval_offic	45		✓	0.6	0.000398	0.00776
103	oval_offic	45		✗	0.26	0	0.132
104	young_man	129		✓	0.485	0.000597	0.0123
104	young_man	129		✗	0.487	0	0.0153
105	marin_corp	16		✓	0.0742	0.000398	0.00199
105	marin_corp	16		✗	0.907	0	0.0159
106	young_men	57		✓	0.209	0.000796	0.0253
106	young_men	57		✗	0.754	0	0.0113
107	health_care	18		✓	0.0788	0.117	0
107	health_care	18		✗	0.802	0.000995	0.000398
108	power_structur	22		✓	0.0519	0.247	0.00299
108	power_structur	22		✗	0.583	0.114	0.000199
109	special_interest	18		✓	0.045	0.116	0.000199
109	special_interest	18		✗	0.484	0.354	0.000398
110	american_peopl	22		✓	0.0476	0.0639	0.00736
110	american_peopl	22		✗	0.423	0.457	0.000398
111	prescript_drug	42		✓	0.046	0.223	0
111	prescript_drug	42		✗	0.237	0.494	0
112	energi_cost	5		✓	0.00418	0.0183	0
112	energi_cost	5		✗	0.264	0.714	0
113	american_peopl	45		✓	0.0894	0.0291	0.000398
113	american_peopl	45		✗	0.231	0.65	0
114	__NUM___billion	3		✓	0.00418	0.00259	0
114	__NUM___billion	3		✗	0.318	0.675	0
115	billion_dollar	0		✓	0.000597	0.000995	0
115	billion_dollar	0		✗	0.322	0.676	0
116	oil_compani	19		✓	0.132	0.0119	0
116	oil_compani	19		✗	0.298	0.558	0
117	health_insur	20		✓	0.329	0.0169	0
117	health_insur	20		✗	0.232	0.422	0
118	middl_class	24		✓	0.141	0.0394	0.00219
118	middl_class	24		✗	0.416	0.402	0
119	senat_mccain	106		✓	0.349	0.00119	0.44
119	senat_mccain	106		✗	0.203	0.00418	0.00199
120	good_man	24		✓	0.0557	0.00159	0.0706
120	good_man	24		✗	0.448	0.00139	0.422
121	john_mccain	21		✓	0.234	0.000199	0.00776
121	john_mccain	21		✗	0.462	0	0.296
122	american_peopl	9		✓	0.039	0.00279	0.00697
122	american_peopl	9		✗	0.662	0.000199	0.289
123	__NUM___year	11		✓	0.0454	0.00935	0.00776
123	__NUM___year	11		✗	0.66	0.00279	0.274
124	__NUM___dai	7		✓	0.031	0.0492	0.00736
124	__NUM___dai	7		✗	0.643	0.0125	0.257
125	hous_crisi	17		✓	0.115	0.234	0
125	hous_crisi	17		✗	0.588	0.0609	0.00219
126	young_girl	3		✓	0.0289	0.00179	0.000199
126	young_girl	3		✗	0.689	0.279	0.00139
127	home_foreclosur	17		✓	0.0241	0.334	0
127	home_foreclosur	17		✗	0.365	0.277	0
128	__NUM___dai	6		✓	0.0163	0.00677	0.00219
128	__NUM___dai	6		✗	0.376	0.598	0
129	peopl_work	2		✓	0.00657	0.00358	0.000199
129	peopl_work	2		✗	0.386	0.602	0.00159
130	pai___MONEY__	16		✓	0.0384	0.0304	0.00239
130	pai___MONEY__	16		✗	0.346	0.582	0.000796
131	senat_mccain	11		✓	0.629	0	0.00299
131	senat_mccain	11		✗	0.358	0.00876	0.000597
132	univers_health_care	3		✓	0.0239	0	0
132	univers_health_care	3		✗	0.976	0	0
133	senat_obama	52		✓	0.179	0	0.00438
133	senat_obama	52		✗	0.816	0	0
134	__NUM___centuri	56		✓	0.202	0.00239	0.00338
134	__NUM___centuri	56		✗	0.792	0	0.000995
135	white_hous	31		✓	0.127	0.000398	0.00139
135	white_hous	31		✗	0.87	0	0.000995
136	singl_dai	7		✓	0.0306	0.00179	0.000199
136	singl_dai	7		✗	0.966	0.000398	0.00119
137	__NUM___countri	144		✓	0.111	0.0113	0.738
137	__NUM___countri	144		✗	0.139	0	0.00119
138	special_interest	35		✓	0.539	0.248	0.000398
138	special_interest	35		✗	0.195	0.0105	0.00697
139	health_care	5		✓	0.0273	0.00537	0
139	health_care	5		✗	0.715	0.252	0
140	insur_compani	8		✓	0.0322	0.00876	0
140	insur_compani	8		✗	0.709	0.25	0
141	special_interest	22		✓	0.0876	0.0308	0.000199
141	special_interest	22		✗	0.64	0.241	0
142	health_care	9		✓	0.0416	0.00756	0
142	health_care	9		✗	0.694	0.257	0
143	presid_bush	36		✓	0.0947	0.0366	0.25
143	presid_bush	36		✗	0.411	0.208	0.000199
144	hold_fast	149		✓	0.439	0.00139	0.177
144	hold_fast	149		✗	0.222	0.00438	0.157
145	creat_equal	10		✓	0.0255	0.000199	0.000398
145	creat_equal	10		✗	0.636	0.00498	0.333
146	huddl_mass	58		✓	0.146	0.000199	0.000199
146	huddl_mass	58		✗	0.522	0	0.332
147	dark_dai	21		✓	0.0561	0	0.000199
147	dark_dai	21		✗	0.613	0	0.331
148	god_bless	110		✓	0.53	0	0.00159
148	god_bless	110		✗	0.431	0	0.037
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	2

Hillary Clinton

Cue-lag representation