Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	class_famili	43		✓	0.778	0.218	0.00418
1	class_famili	43		✗	0	0	0
2	local_resid	10		✓	0.0866	0.00139	0.0147
2	local_resid	10		✗	0.744	0.149	0.00378
3	state_repres	57		✓	0.273	0.000796	0.0687
3	state_repres	57		✗	0.636	0.00816	0.0137
4	middl_class	110		✓	0.472	0.0279	0.000199
4	middl_class	110		✗	0.496	0.00358	0.000199
5	__NUM___centuri	14		✓	0.0702	0.000796	0.000796
5	__NUM___centuri	14		✗	0.916	0.0115	0.000199
6	centuri_america	0		✓	0.00338	0	0.000995
6	centuri_america	0		✗	0.983	0.0119	0.000995
7	clean_energi	14		✓	0.0571	0.00597	0.000398
7	clean_energi	14		✗	0.926	0.00955	0.000995
8	great_depress	61		✓	0.00358	0.967	0.000398
8	great_depress	61		✗	0.0149	0.0143	0
9	vast_major	10		✓	0.00139	0.0231	0
9	vast_major	10		✗	0.00537	0.97	0
10	half_year	16		✓	0	0.0207	0
10	half_year	16		✗	0	0.979	0
11	year_ago	0		✓	0.000199	0.000597	0
11	year_ago	0		✗	0	0.999	0
12	balanc_budget	5		✓	0.000199	0.00418	0
12	balanc_budget	5		✗	0	0.996	0
13	work_hard	38		✓	0.695	0.00756	0.00617
13	work_hard	38		✗	0.00139	0.29	0
14	import_part	20		✓	0.268	0	0.0969
14	import_part	20		✗	0.616	0.0135	0.00577
15	make_america	23		✓	0.105	0.00318	0.0119
15	make_america	23		✗	0.794	0.00637	0.0788
16	american_famili	47		✓	0.000597	0.988	0
16	american_famili	47		✗	0.00179	0.00995	0
17	retir_save	2		✓	0	0.00458	0
17	retir_save	2		✗	0	0.995	0
18	save_account	0		✓	0	0.000796	0
18	save_account	0		✗	0	0.999	0
19	social_secur	46		✓	0.000995	0.0402	0
19	social_secur	46		✗	0	0.959	0
20	save_rate	22		✓	0	0.0249	0.000398
20	save_rate	22		✗	0	0.975	0
21	lowest_level	6		✓	0.000597	0.00557	0.000199
21	lowest_level	6		✗	0	0.993	0.000398
22	great_depress	3		✓	0.000398	0.00279	0
22	great_depress	3		✗	0.000597	0.996	0
23	make_monei	9		✓	0.0219	0.00856	0.00418
23	make_monei	9		✗	0.00139	0.964	0
24	health_care	19		✓	0.0372	0.0167	0
24	health_care	19		✗	0.0209	0.925	0
25	work_hard	18		✓	0.0209	0.0193	0.000199
25	work_hard	18		✗	0.0492	0.91	0
26	social_secur	84		✓	0.0169	0.12	0.000199
26	social_secur	84		✗	0.0147	0.848	0
27	younger_gener	11		✓	0.00557	0.0115	0.0197
27	younger_gener	11		✗	0.0245	0.939	0
28	blind_ey	25		✓	0.000597	0.0372	0.00816
28	blind_ey	25		✗	0.0115	0.926	0.0161
29	increas_cost	14		✓	0	0.0492	0
29	increas_cost	14		✗	0.000199	0.95	0.000796
30	hous_market	13		✓	0	0.0121	0
30	hous_market	13		✗	0	0.988	0
31	main_sourc	7		✓	0.00338	0.00517	0
31	main_sourc	7		✗	0	0.991	0
32	america_todai	12		✓	0.00159	0.0109	0.000199
32	america_todai	12		✗	0.00219	0.985	0
33	mortgag_payment	20		✓	0	0.0187	0
33	mortgag_payment	20		✗	0	0.981	0
34	bush_administr	11		✓	0.000398	0.0103	0.00139
34	bush_administr	11		✗	0	0.988	0
35	good_luck	23		✓	0.00259	0.0193	0.000199
35	good_luck	23		✗	0.000398	0.977	0.000597
36	social_secur	8		✓	0.000199	0.0101	0
36	social_secur	8		✗	0.000796	0.989	0
37	retir_save	11		✓	0	0.0103	0
37	retir_save	11		✗	0	0.99	0
38	save_account	0		✓	0	0.000199	0
38	save_account	0		✗	0	1	0
39	tax_break	21		✓	0	0.0213	0
39	tax_break	21		✗	0	0.979	0
40	drug_compani	2		✓	0	0.00179	0
40	drug_compani	2		✗	0	0.998	0
41	oil_compani	2		✓	0	0.00239	0
41	oil_compani	2		✗	0	0.998	0
42	half_year	14		✓	0	0.0103	0
42	half_year	14		✗	0	0.99	0
43	presid_bush	3		✓	0	0.00378	0
43	presid_bush	3		✗	0	0.996	0
44	american_worker	6		✓	0	0.00856	0
44	american_worker	6		✗	0	0.991	0
45	retir_plan	6		✓	0	0.00617	0
45	retir_plan	6		✗	0	0.994	0
46	presid_bush	24		✓	0.000199	0.0165	0.000597
46	presid_bush	24		✗	0	0.983	0
47	ownership_societi	14		✓	0	0.0117	0
47	ownership_societi	14		✗	0	0.988	0
48	middl_class	43		✓	0.00995	0.0376	0
48	middl_class	43		✗	0	0.952	0
49	work_hard	19		✓	0.00975	0.0185	0.000199
49	work_hard	19		✗	0.00816	0.963	0
50	retir_plan	43		✓	0.00517	0.0464	0.000796
50	retir_plan	43		✗	0.00597	0.941	0.000199
51	white_hous	47		✓	0.861	0.00259	0.047
51	white_hous	47		✗	0.00756	0.0816	0.000398
52	unit_state	13		✓	0.0617	0.00358	0.00856
52	unit_state	13		✗	0.816	0.0691	0.0408
53	american_peopl	14		✓	0.0621	0.00975	0.00179
53	american_peopl	14		✗	0.826	0.0697	0.031
54	global_economi	8		✓	0.0503	0.0205	0.000398
54	global_economi	8		✗	0.839	0.0776	0.0123
55	work_hard	13		✓	0.0619	0.0139	0.000199
55	work_hard	13		✗	0.83	0.0929	0.00139
56	american_dream	86		✓	0.26	0.0951	0.000199
56	american_dream	86		✗	0.567	0.0774	0
57	work_hard	5		✓	0.0153	0.0171	0.000597
57	work_hard	5		✗	0.797	0.17	0
58	famili_live	27		✓	0.0464	0.1	0.281
58	famili_live	27		✗	0.405	0.166	0.000995
59	older_peopl	35		✓	0.0342	0.564	0.00159
59	older_peopl	35		✗	0.122	0.256	0.0217
60	move_back	28		✓	0.0386	0.0555	0.000199
60	move_back	28		✗	0.118	0.785	0.00239
61	singl_mom	9		✓	0.815	0.000199	0.00139
61	singl_mom	9		✗	0.154	0.0293	0.000398
62	rais_children	3		✓	0.0229	0	0.000398
62	rais_children	3		✗	0.954	0.0209	0.00179
63	young_peopl	35		✓	0.133	0.0247	0.000199
63	young_peopl	35		✗	0.823	0.0195	0.000199
64	save_rate	64		✓	0.000398	0.955	0.000995
64	save_rate	64		✗	0.00139	0.0418	0
65	nest_egg	14		✓	0	0.0135	0
65	nest_egg	14		✗	0	0.986	0
66	fall_back	2		✓	0	0.00219	0
66	fall_back	2		✗	0	0.998	0
67	borrow_monei	23		✓	0	0.0221	0
67	borrow_monei	23		✗	0	0.978	0
68	foreign_countri	2		✓	0	0.00239	0
68	foreign_countri	2		✗	0	0.998	0
69	presid_bush	10		✓	0	0.00995	0
69	presid_bush	10		✗	0	0.99	0
70	tax_cut	5		✓	0	0.00478	0
70	tax_cut	5		✗	0	0.995	0
71	social_secur	23		✓	0.000597	0.0179	0
71	social_secur	23		✗	0	0.981	0
72	trust_fund	1		✓	0.000398	0.00199	0.00159
72	trust_fund	1		✗	0.000597	0.995	0
73	troop_home	6		✓	0.0927	0.00318	0.295
73	troop_home	6		✗	0.00199	0.603	0.00378
74	__MONEY___billion	36		✓	0.000398	0.392	0.00179
74	__MONEY___billion	36		✗	0.000796	0.588	0.0163
75	retir_save	5		✓	0	0.0217	0
75	retir_save	5		✗	0	0.978	0
76	tax_code	4		✓	0	0.00279	0
76	tax_code	4		✗	0	0.997	0
77	__MONEY___billion	6		✓	0	0.00358	0
77	__MONEY___billion	6		✗	0	0.996	0
78	top___NUM___percent	4		✓	0	0.00458	0
78	top___NUM___percent	4		✗	0	0.995	0
79	bottom___NUM___percent	11		✓	0	0.0115	0
79	bottom___NUM___percent	11		✗	0	0.988	0
80	retir_plan	46		✓	0.000398	0.0412	0
80	retir_plan	46		✗	0	0.958	0
81	retir_save	56		✓	0	0.0478	0
81	retir_save	56		✗	0	0.952	0
82	save_account	0		✓	0.00159	0.000398	0.000199
82	save_account	0		✗	0	0.998	0
83	includ___NUM__	2		✓	0.522	0.00119	0.000597
83	includ___NUM__	2		✗	0.00995	0.467	0
84	__NUM___worker	0		✓	0.146	0.000199	0.00159
84	__NUM___worker	0		✗	0.54	0.312	0.000796
85	singl_women	53		✓	0.371	0.00418	0
85	singl_women	53		✗	0.576	0.0494	0
86	work_full	3		✓	0.0619	0	0
86	work_full	3		✗	0.938	0	0
87	same_level	9		✓	0.000199	0	0
87	same_level	9		✗	1	0	0
88	retir_plan	6		✓	0.000398	0	0
88	retir_plan	6		✗	1	0	0
89	work_full	7		✓	0.000398	0	0
89	work_full	7		✗	1	0	0
90	work_part	5		✓	0	0	0
90	work_part	5		✗	1	0	0
91	time_job	15		✓	0.00179	0.000398	0
91	time_job	15		✗	0.998	0	0
92	singl_mom	43		✓	0.934	0.0123	0
92	singl_mom	43		✗	0.0537	0	0
93	work_hard	16		✓	0.0706	0.0175	0
93	work_hard	16		✗	0.9	0.0119	0
94	singl_dai	2		✓	0.00816	0.00557	0
94	singl_dai	2		✗	0.957	0.0293	0
95	nurs_home	10		✓	0.0356	0.104	0.000398
95	nurs_home	10		✗	0.826	0.0344	0.000199
96	social_secur	23		✓	0.0157	0.689	0
96	social_secur	23		✗	0.159	0.136	0
97	retir_account	34		✓	0	0.2	0
97	retir_account	34		✗	0.00318	0.797	0
98	recent_studi	17		✓	0.000398	0.0185	0
98	recent_studi	17		✗	0.00159	0.98	0
99	class_american	4		✓	0.000398	0.00597	0
99	class_american	4		✗	0.000199	0.993	0
100	automat_enrol	22		✓	0.0308	0.0175	0
100	automat_enrol	22		✗	0.000199	0.951	0
101	nest_egg	17		✓	0	0.0448	0
101	nest_egg	17		✗	0.000398	0.955	0
102	retir_account	30		✓	0	0.0314	0
102	retir_account	30		✗	0	0.969	0
103	work_famili	20		✓	0.000995	0.0169	0
103	work_famili	20		✗	0	0.982	0
104	tax_code	19		✓	0.000199	0.0177	0
104	tax_code	19		✗	0	0.982	0
105	social_contract	19		✓	0.00119	0.0191	0.000398
105	social_contract	19		✗	0	0.979	0
106	econom_growth	8		✓	0.000398	0.00816	0
106	econom_growth	8		✗	0.000796	0.99	0.000199
107	retir_account	21		✓	0	0.0181	0
107	retir_account	21		✗	0	0.982	0
108	class_famili	20		✓	0.000199	0.0191	0
108	class_famili	20		✗	0	0.981	0
109	tax_cut	3		✓	0	0.00378	0
109	tax_cut	3		✗	0	0.996	0
110	class_famili	51		✓	0.000199	0.049	0
110	class_famili	51		✗	0	0.951	0
111	tax_cut	6		✓	0	0.00597	0
111	tax_cut	6		✗	0	0.994	0
112	nest_egg	12		✓	0	0.00975	0
112	nest_egg	12		✗	0	0.99	0
113	retir_account	4		✓	0	0.00517	0
113	retir_account	4		✗	0	0.995	0
114	retir_save	11		✓	0	0.0115	0
114	retir_save	11		✗	0	0.988	0
115	save_plan	28		✓	0	0.0229	0.000199
115	save_plan	28		✗	0	0.977	0
116	retir_account	19		✓	0	0.0159	0
116	retir_account	19		✗	0	0.984	0
117	gener_govern	35		✓	0.00179	0.0348	0.00398
117	gener_govern	35		✗	0	0.959	0
118	tax_credit	71		✓	0.0133	0.071	0.000199
118	tax_credit	71		✗	0.000796	0.914	0.000199
119	retir_save	51		✓	0.000199	0.0511	0
119	retir_save	51		✗	0.00139	0.947	0
120	start_work	35		✓	0.424	0.0207	0.00498
120	start_work	35		✗	0.00199	0.548	0
121	social_secur	19		✓	0.292	0.00557	0
121	social_secur	19		✗	0.397	0.306	0
122	work_part	3		✓	0.314	0	0
122	work_part	3		✗	0.686	0.000398	0
123	part_time	0		✓	0.000398	0	0
123	part_time	0		✗	1	0	0
124	work_full	2		✓	0	0	0
124	work_full	2		✗	1	0	0
125	full_time	0		✓	0.000199	0	0
125	full_time	0		✗	1	0	0
126	rais_children	35		✓	0.84	0.00597	0.00199
126	rais_children	35		✗	0.152	0	0
127	small_busi	23		✓	0.18	0.00995	0
127	small_busi	23		✗	0.806	0.00458	0
128	health_care	20		✓	0.0812	0.00279	0
128	health_care	20		✗	0.908	0.00756	0
129	stai_home	33		✓	0.131	0.00299	0.0117
129	stai_home	33		✗	0.851	0.00338	0
130	retir_benefit	35		✓	0.0237	0.691	0.0874
130	retir_benefit	35		✗	0.18	0.00637	0.0111
131	retir_account	64		✓	0.0338	0.259	0.000199
131	retir_account	64		✗	0.034	0.648	0.0245
132	higher_educ	14		✓	0.183	0.0105	0.000597
132	higher_educ	14		✗	0.0609	0.721	0.0239
133	american_famili	12		✓	0.00557	0.175	0
133	american_famili	12		✗	0.0959	0.723	0.00119
134	difficult_time	17		✓	0.0316	0.0191	0.000796
134	difficult_time	17		✗	0.0872	0.861	0.000398
135	class_famili	25		✓	0.00458	0.103	0
135	class_famili	25		✗	0.0326	0.86	0
136	american_peopl	27		✓	0.00935	0.0338	0.00418
136	american_peopl	27		✗	0.0231	0.93	0
137	fiscal_respons	28		✓	0.000995	0.0583	0
137	fiscal_respons	28		✗	0.00199	0.939	0
138	tax_cut	13		✓	0	0.0161	0
138	tax_cut	13		✗	0	0.984	0
139	estat_tax	9		✓	0.000796	0.00677	0
139	estat_tax	9		✗	0	0.992	0
140	class_famili	19		✓	0	0.0175	0
140	class_famili	19		✗	0	0.982	0
141	tax_cut	4		✓	0	0.00418	0.000199
141	tax_cut	4		✗	0	0.996	0
142	defin_benefit	106		✓	0.00119	0.000995	0.994
142	defin_benefit	106		✗	0	0.00279	0.000597
143	pension_oblig	1		✓	0	0	0.00458
143	pension_oblig	1		✗	0	0.000597	0.995
144	defin_benefit	5		✓	0	0	0
144	defin_benefit	5		✗	0	0.000597	0.999
145	__MONEY___million	49		✓	0.000199	0	0.00179
145	__MONEY___million	49		✗	0	0	0.998
146	pension_benefit	2		✓	0	0	0.000199
146	pension_benefit	2		✗	0	0	1
147	dick_chenei	16		✓	0.00119	0	0.000398
147	dick_chenei	16		✗	0	0	0.998
148	__MONEY___million	4		✓	0	0	0.000398
148	__MONEY___million	4		✗	0.000796	0	0.999
149	same_amount	40		✓	0	0	0.00498
149	same_amount	40		✗	0	0	0.995
150	hard_time	51		✓	0.000398	0	0.00199
150	hard_time	51		✗	0	0	0.998
151	pension_benefit	24		✓	0	0	0.000398
151	pension_benefit	24		✗	0	0	1
152	histor_role	5		✓	0	0	0
152	histor_role	5		✗	0	0	1
153	retir_benefit	6		✓	0	0	0.000398
153	retir_benefit	6		✗	0	0	1
154	law_enforc	16		✓	0	0	0
154	law_enforc	16		✗	0	0	1
155	enforc_offic	0		✓	0	0	0
155	enforc_offic	0		✗	0	0	1
156	retir_benefit	24		✓	0.00119	0.266	0.000199
156	retir_benefit	24		✗	0	0	0.733
157	retir_save	10		✓	0	0.732	0.000796
157	retir_save	10		✗	0	0.262	0.00478
158	social_secur	7		✓	0.00119	0.0121	0.000398
158	social_secur	7		✗	0	0.986	0.000597
159	bad_idea	26		✓	0.00358	0.0241	0.000995
159	bad_idea	26		✗	0.000995	0.969	0.000995
160	social_secur	16		✓	0.000398	0.0183	0
160	social_secur	16		✗	0.000995	0.979	0.00119
161	presid_bush	12		✓	0.000597	0.0117	0
161	presid_bush	12		✗	0.000199	0.987	0.000199
162	tax_cut	7		✓	0	0.00776	0
162	tax_cut	7		✗	0	0.992	0
163	top___NUM___percent	45		✓	0.000199	0.042	0
163	top___NUM___percent	45		✗	0	0.958	0
164	tax_cut	5		✓	0	0.00517	0
164	tax_cut	5		✗	0	0.995	0
165	social_secur	6		✓	0.000597	0.00816	0
165	social_secur	6		✗	0	0.991	0
166	social_secur_benefit	17		✓	0.00557	0.0117	0.00318
166	social_secur_benefit	17		✗	0.000398	0.979	0
167	bad_deal	34		✓	0.0123	0.0302	0.00139
167	bad_deal	34		✗	0.00418	0.949	0.00259
168	fiscal_respons	16		✓	0.0189	0.0157	0
168	fiscal_respons	16		✗	0.0131	0.952	0
169	fair_tax	2		✓	0.0157	0.00338	0.00259
169	fair_tax	2		✗	0.0318	0.946	0
170	tax_polici	0		✓	0.00995	0.000398	0
170	tax_polici	0		✗	0.0476	0.94	0.00239
171	challeng_face	12		✓	0.0559	0.0111	0
171	challeng_face	12		✗	0.0529	0.88	0
172	social_secur	1		✓	0.000796	0.0342	0
172	social_secur	1		✗	0.074	0.891	0
173	cut_back	21		✓	0.00179	0.0816	0
173	cut_back	21		✗	0.00856	0.908	0
174	tax_break	3		✓	0	0.0125	0
174	tax_break	3		✗	0.000796	0.987	0
175	big_corpor	5		✓	0	0.00637	0
175	big_corpor	5		✗	0	0.994	0
176	left_offic	4		✓	0	0.00279	0
176	left_offic	4		✗	0	0.997	0
177	balanc_budget	6		✓	0	0.00577	0
177	balanc_budget	6		✗	0	0.994	0
178	social_secur	16		✓	0.000796	0.0165	0
178	social_secur	16		✗	0	0.983	0
179	georg_bush	19		✓	0.00159	0.0205	0
179	georg_bush	19		✗	0.000398	0.978	0
180	deficit_spend	8		✓	0	0.00995	0
180	deficit_spend	8		✗	0.000796	0.989	0
181	half_year	7		✓	0	0.00577	0
181	half_year	7		✗	0.000597	0.994	0
182	social_secur	12		✓	0	0.0137	0
182	social_secur	12		✗	0	0.986	0
183	trust_fund	1		✓	0	0.00119	0
183	trust_fund	1		✗	0	0.999	0
184	fiscal_respons	10		✓	0	0.00876	0
184	fiscal_respons	10		✗	0	0.991	0
185	pai_back	4		✓	0.000199	0.00259	0.000199
185	pai_back	4		✗	0	0.997	0
186	social_secur	2		✓	0	0.00318	0
186	social_secur	2		✗	0	0.997	0
187	trust_fund	1		✓	0.000199	0.00239	0
187	trust_fund	1		✗	0	0.997	0
188	social_secur	21		✓	0.0991	0.0145	0
188	social_secur	21		✗	0.000199	0.886	0
189	great_deal	18		✓	0.503	0.00736	0.00259
189	great_deal	18		✗	0.0935	0.393	0
190	small_busi	52		✓	0.137	0.073	0.000199
190	small_busi	52		✗	0.433	0.356	0.000199
191	presid_bush	224		✓	0.0939	0.403	0.194
191	presid_bush	224		✗	0.0438	0.265	0
192	retir_plan	156		✓	0.000597	0.444	0
192	retir_plan	156		✗	0	0.555	0
193	class_american	6		✓	0.00139	0.00517	0
193	class_american	6		✗	0.000597	0.993	0
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	12

Hillary Clinton

Cue-lag representation