From: Cary Oler Newsgroups: sci.astro,sci.astro.amateur,rec.radio.shortwave,rec.radio.amateur.misc Subject: AURORA WARNING: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Warning Issued Date: 26 Aug 1998 05:48:57 GMT Organization: University of Lethbridge X-Newsreader: WinVN 0.93.14 Resent-From: pane@run.amulet.cs.cmu.edu /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING WATCH UPGRADED TO A WARNING. ISSUED: 23:15 UTC, 25 AUGUST /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ VALID BEGINNING AT: 06:00 UTC ON 26 AUGUST VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 28 AUGUST HIGH RISK PERIOD: 26 - 27 AUG (UTC days) MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 28 AUG PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 80, 60, 22, 12 (26 AUG - 29 AUG) (INPUT INTO THE PREDICTIVE AURORA SOFTWARE *) POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: HIGH TO VERY HIGH POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS MINOR BELT = 48 HOURS ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NIL NEAR AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD TO VERY GOOD AURORAL ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM... NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO NORTHERN KANSAS TO MISSOURI TO KENTUCKY AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN TENNESSEE TO NORTH CAROLINA. ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM... CENTRAL FRANCE TO SOUTHERN GERMANY TO NORTHERN CZECHOSLOVAKIA TO CENTRAL POLAND TO NOTHERN RUSSIA INCLUDING ALL OF GREAT BRITAIN, ALL OF IRELAND, ALL OF NORWAY, ALL OF SWEDEN AND ALL OF FINLAND. OBSERVATIONS OF STRONG ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM NEW ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. NOTE: Serious observers interested in real-time conditions are encouraged to investigate the SWARM software at: http://solar.uleth.ca/solar/www/swarm.html SYNOPSIS... A major coronal mass ejection is thought to be in-transit to the Earth following yesterdays major class X1.1/3B proton flare. The arrival of this disturbance is expected anytime between 06:00 UTC on 26 August and 24:00 UTC on 26 August, with a preference between 12:00 and 18:00 UTC on 26 August. Auroral activity is expected to rapidly reach major to severe storm levels immediately to a few hours after the arrival of the shock front associated with the coronal mass ejection. If conditions are as favorable as we expect them to become, visible auroral actiivty (at times very intense) could become visible as far south as northern California, Colorado, Kansas and North Carolina (see above). This is expected to be the strongest auroral storm so far this solar cycle. Whether it will reach that expectation remains to be seen, but the potential certainly exists. Observers in North America should therefore watch closely for activity during the extreme pre-dawn hours of 26 August and during the evening of 26/27 August. The main phase of this disturbance could approach 24 hours in duration, providing most of the Earth's middle latitude regions with a good opportunity to observe activity. The moon will also be out of the sky near and after local midnight, which will provide optimum dark-sky conditions for observing this event. As a result, auroral activity may be observed much farther south than would otherwise be possible. A low latitude auroral activity watch is also being issued to support this event. This warning will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 28 August. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. Near real-time POLAR spacecraft auroral imagery is available at: http://solar.uleth.ca/solar in the Aurora section (or see the side panel). PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO: http://solar.uleth.ca/solar/www/auroras.html ** End of Warning **