In:= The table itself is in this node

Analysis

The two big assumptions here are that the outcomes for the various "states" (we think of D.C. as a state) are independent Bernoulli trials, and that the TradeSports quotes are reasonable proxies for the means of these trials.  Neither is a particularly believable assumption, but it's the best I can do.  Also, no attempt is made to account for non-winner-takes-all outcomes in ME, NE, or CO, nor for the vagaries of faithless electors.

Total EVs up for grabs

In:= Out= Dynamic program for the PDF over EVs

In:= The PDF and CDF

In:= In:= In:= Out= Other parameters of the distribution.  Probability of Bush loss/tie/win is 41.7%, 1.5%, 56.8%

In:= Out= In:= Log plot of the PDF

In:=      Out= The binomial distribution with the same mean, for comparison

In:= In:= Out= In:=  Out= Plot of the PDF, with the binomial distribution for comparison

In:= In:= In:=  Plot of the CDF

In:= In:= In:=  Quintiles

In:= Out= Hmm... the CDF is shockingly linear between 20% and 80%.  Is there a simple explanation for that?

The following revised dynamic program computes a PDF for a given subset of the states.

In:= The PDF of the lose/tie/win variable for a given subset of the states with a given bias

In:= The entropy of a PDF, in bits

In:=  The entropy of the lose/tie/win variable for a given subset of the states with a given bias

In:= In:= Out= The entropy of the election

In:= Out= The conditional entropy over the states l given the result for state n

In:= The conditional entropies for the various states, as percentages of the total entropy

In:= Out= The states sorted by the conditional entropies

In:= Out= The upper levels of the decision tree of the lose/tie/win variable

In:= In:= Out= Created by Mathematica  (November 1, 2004)