Modeling Pandemic Influenza: Computation and Simulation of Epidemics
and Other Dynamic Public Health Processes

Public health is "the science and art of preventing disease,
prolonging life and promoting health through the organised efforts of
society."  In this seminar I will review my own studies of epidemic
infectious diseases such as smallpox, dengue, and influenza using
computational approaches [eg Nature 2004 427: 344-7; PNAS 2005 102:
15259-64; Nature 2006 442: 448-52; J R Soc Interface 2007 4:
755-62]. For studies of pandemic influenza, we created a large agent
based simulation of the USA social structure, then seeded this dynamic
human social substrate with a transmissible agent with the
characteristics of influenza, and used the model to evaluate various
vaccine, drug, and social distancing control interventions. Our models
have been highly influential in the development of USA national
influenza pandemic strategies.  In this seminar I will also discuss
ongoing work on our modeling projects supported by the Bill and
Melinda Gates Foundation, the NIH, and the CDC, and I will discuss
opportunities for experts in computation and simulation to help solve
public health problems.

Bio:

Donald S. Burke, M.D. is Dean of the Graduate School of Public Health,
Director of the Center for Vaccine Research, and Associate Vice
Chancellor for Global Health at the University of Pittsburgh. He is
also first occupant of the UPMC-Jonas Salk Chair in Global Health. A
native of Cleveland, Ohio, Dr. Burke received his B.A. from Western
Reserve University and his M.D. from Harvard Medical School. He
trained in medicine at Boston City and Massachusetts General Hospitals
and in infectious diseases at the Walter Reed Army Medical
Center. Throughout his professional life he has studied prevention and
control of infectious diseases of global concern, including HIV/AIDS,
influenza, dengue, and emerging infectious diseases. He has lived six
years in Thailand, worked extensively in Cameroon, and conducted field
epidemiology and vaccine studies in numerous other developing
countries. He has approached epidemic control using from the bench to
the He now leads a trans-disciplinary team that develops computational
models and simulations of epidemic infectious diseases and uses these
simulations to evaluate prevention and control strategies. Dr. Burke
has been at the University of Pittsburgh for three years. In October
2009 he was elected to membership in the Institute of Medicine of the
National Academies.