If you use our software, please cite the following paper [Bibtex]
** Abstract **

SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) is a general and widely-used diffusion model that can model the diffusion in different contexts
such as idea spreading and disease propagation. Here, we tackle the problem of inferring graph edges if we
can only observe a SEIR diffusion process spreading over the nodes of a graph. This problem is of importance in the common case
where node states can be estimated with less cost than the edges can
be found. Some applications include inferring a contact network from disease spread data, inferring a reference network from idea
spreading, or estimating influenza diffusion rates between U.S. states. We improve upon the existing approaches for this problem
in three ways: (1) we assume we are provided only with the probabilistic information about the state of each node which may also
be undersampled or incomplete; (2) we present a more general framework
that better uses trace data to model edge non-existence under SEIR
model; (3) we can infer the network at both micro and macro
scales.

Experiments on both real and synthetic data show that our method is accurate under these
challenging cases at multiple scales, and it performs consistently better
than the existing methods. For instance, we can infer a high school
human contact network at microscale by tracking influenza diffusion almost 10\% better
than the existing methods as well as the estimated networks closely mimick the full range of properties
of the true network. We also estimated the strength of the influenza
diffusion between and inside the U.S. states from Google Flu Trends
data at macroscale. Estimated rates are correlated with the human transportation rates between the states to a certain degree, and
we gain interesting insight into the influenza diffusion in U.S. such
as the importance of the less populous states in epidemics as well as
the asymmetric influenza diffusion between U.S. states.

Copyright © 2014 - All Rights Reserved - Emre Sefer