Event class: election, campaign, republican, governor, run, state, race, democratic, political, senate

Events with high posterior probability

Jim Gerlach	The liberal Americans for Democratic Action rated Gerlach's 2005 voting record at 35 points out of 100 ; the American Conservative Union ranked him at 56 points, on the same scale.
Tony Goolsby	In 2001, Phyllis Schlafly's Eagle Forum rated Goolsby 86 percent conservative, among the higher evaluations of Texas lawmakers.
Mary Landrieu	As of 2012, her lifetime rating is 21 %, which is the fourth highest rating among Democrats in the Senate.
Peter Camejo	Just over a month after the 2004 election, Camejo was elected as one of California's delegates to the National Committee of the Green Party and established the GDI,'' Greens for Democracy and Independence,'' a cadre group within the larger Green Party of California that ran candidates for local Green County Councils, another organizational effort that failed to sustain itself.
John Dendahl	At one point following Republican Bill Redmond's surprising 1997 win of a U. S. House of Representatives seat never before held by a Republican, reporter Tim Archuleta of The Albuquerque Tribune called Dendahl'' the most feared and loathed politician in New Mexico.''
Thomas M. Davis	Since 2003 on all 1,700 votes, Davis voted over 89 percent in favor of the Republican position.
Jim Jeffords	The 70-year-old incumbent decided to retire despite consensus within the political community that he had good opportunity to win re-election in 2006.
Paul C. McKain	In an online straw poll conducted in late March 2010 by WFLA radio's conservative-leaning Morning Show, McKain was the surprise winner with 42 percent of the vote, with the Republican candidate placing second at 24 percent.
Larry Langford	Gary White, the Republican who crossed party lines and voted for Langford for president, lost his seat by a landslide in the 2006 election, as voters from his heavily Republican district replaced him with Jim Carns.
Joe Straus	After several days of phone calls, e-mails, pledge cards and signature gathering, Joe Straus announced on Sunday, January 4, 2009, that he had enough votes to win the job.
Joe Knollenberg	The narrowness of his 2006 reelection bid, combined with his district's changing demographics led the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to target him for defeat.
Greg Nickels	A late 2008 poll of likely Seattle voters reflected dissatisfaction with the incumbent mayor, showing that 31 % approved of Nickels's performance as mayor while 57 % disapproved.
Cruz Bustamante	He was the most prominent Democrat to run in the 2003 California recall election to remove Governor Gray Davis, and placed second to Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, with about 2.
Christie Vilsack	A Research 2000 poll for the website Daily Kos, conducted just days after the interview, showed that Grassley led Vilsack 51-40 in a hypothetical matchup, placing Vilsack in a statistical tie with declared Democratic party candidates Roxanne Conlin and Bob Krause.
Jerry Petrowski	On March 21, 2012, Petrowski announced that he would be a candidate in the recall election to replace fellow Republican State Senator Pam Galloway, who had suddenly resigned after being targeted for recall along with Governor Scott Walker, in the 29th Senate District.
Frank Keating	He gave up that post in 1983 to run for Congress in and nearly defeated House Budget Committee chairman Jim Jones, holding him to only 52 percent of the vote as Reagan carried the district.
Rick Renzi	In preparation for the 2004 campaign, the Democratic Party in Arizona tapped Paul Babbitt, Coconino County commissioner and the brother of Bruce Babbitt, to run for the seat and pressured all other candidates with the exception of political unknown Bob Donahue to bow out of the primary in order to clear the way for Babbitt to run against Renzi without a costly primary contest.
Joe Donnelly	Due to his relatively late entrance into the contest, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) did not offer much support to Donnelly's 2004 campaign.
Ron Dellums	On June 16, 2006, after a careful ballot count, and a dispute over whether votes for unqualified write-in candidates such as George W. Bush and Homer Simpson counted towards the total, Dellums was unofficially declared the winner in the Oakland mayoral race.
Sho Dozono	At issue was a poll testing Dozono's electability, which a lobbyist had conducted on Dozono's behalf in December 2007, the month before he officially announced his candidacy.
Coleman Young	By the end of his last term, the population of Detroit had lost close to half of its peak 1950 population, though a significant part of that population loss occurred before Young was elected mayor.
Peter Hoyt Brown	A secondary independent poll conducted by 11 News / KUHF Houston Public Radio poll in late October 2009, still showed Brown with a nine point lead over his nearest opponent.
John Edwards	As Edwards had been building support essentially since his election to the Senate, he led the initial campaign fundraising, amassing over $ 7 million during the first quarter of 2003 -- more than half of which came from individuals associated with the legal profession, particularly Edwards' fellow trial lawyers, their families, and employees.
John Catsimatidis	In May 2007, he was reported to be'' systematically wooing local Republicans,'' attending various Republican fundraisers in Queens and Staten Island and stating that he would'' probably have a press conference'' to announce his intentions'' sooner rather than later'' and would consider spending between $ 30 million and $ 40 million if he ran.
Cruz Reynoso	The 1986 campaign again portrayed the targeted justices as'' soft on crime'', Reynoso believes Governor Deukmejian's decision to oppose him, Bird, and Grodin was the most important factor in that election.
Jim Bunning	Bunning was heavily favored for a second term in 2004 after his expected Democratic opponent, Governor Paul Patton, saw his career implode in a scandal over an extramarital affair, and the Democrats chose Daniel Mongiardo, a relatively unknown physician and state senator from Hazard.
Stephen Colbert	He later abandoned plans to run as a Republican due to the $ 35,000 fee required to file for the South Carolina primary, however he continued to seek a place on the Democratic ballot and on October 28, 2007, campaigned in the South Carolina state capital of Columbia, where he was presented with the key to the city by Mayor Bob Coble.
Henry Bonilla	On November 7, Bonilla faced six Democrats, including Ciro Rodriguez and Vietnam War veteran Rick Bolanos in the all-candidate special election required by the court decision on redistricting (see above).
Burt Solomons	By the time he left the House, however, Eagle Forum netted Solomons only 33 percent conservative ; most Texas Republican lawmakers received rankings below 50 percent from Eagle Forum in 2012.
Massouda Jalal	An exit poll taken during the October 2004 election showed Jalal taking about seven percent of the vote among Afghan women.
Linda Bolon	However, in 2010, Republicans saw her as a potential pick-up, although not a top tier target.
Garret Hobart	Hobart was an attractive candidate as he was from a swing state, and the Griggs victory showed that Republicans could hope to win New Jersey's electoral votes, which they had not done since 1872.
Carl Lewis	In 2011 he attempted to run for a seat as a Democrat in the New Jersey Senate, but was removed from the ballot due to the state's residency requirement.
Larry Grant (politician)	He is making great strides in organizing the party and in 2012 a record number of Democrats ran for office as a result of his recruiting efforts.
Don Novello	In 2003, he filed papers to enter the 2003 California recall election, but failed to collect enough valid signatures to qualify for the ballot.
Antonio Villaraigosa	In 2009, a poll by the Los Angeles times showed his approval rating had slipped to 55 %,'' relatively low for a sitting Mayor who faced little name opposition in his recent re-election victory.''
Zack Space	Although much more attention was paid to Brad Ellsworth's 61 percent to 39 percent defeat of John Hostettler in Indiana's 8th district, Space's victory was the largest margin of any Democrat in a Republican-held seat nationwide in 2006.
Bev Hansen	She spent most of 1992 campaigning with and for fellow GOP Assemblyman Bill Filante, who had fallen ill during his run for congress.
Dan Kapanke	A March 9, 2011 poll by Survey USA indicated that 57 % voters in Kapanke's district would vote for recall.
Sonia Sotomayor	During 1998, several Hispanic organizations organized a petition drive in New York State, generating hundreds of signatures from New Yorkers to try to convince New York Republican senator Al D'Amato to push the Senate leadership to bring Sotomayor's nomination to a vote.
Bob Dornan	However, it became even more Democratic after the 1990 Census, when it absorbed a considerably larger number of Latino voters than he had previously represented.
Ralph Nader	Michael Moore at first argued that Florida was so close that votes for any of seven other candidates could also have switched the results, but in 2004 joined the view that Nader had helped make Bush president.
Tom Foley	While Foley had usually relied on large margins in Spokane itself to carry him to victory, in 1994 he won Spokane by only 9,000 votes while Nethercutt did well enough in the rest of the district to win overall by just under 4,000 votes.
Chuck Schumer	Schumer was the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, part of the Democratic Senate Leadership, with primary responsibility for raising funds and recruiting candidates for the Democrats in the 2006 Senate election.
D. Michael Fisher	Fisher's campaign website was praised as being among the best during the 2002 election cycle.
Gary Johnson	Although Johnson had focused the majority of his campaign activities on the New Hampshire primary, he announced on November 29, 2011 that he would no longer campaign there due to his inability to gain traction with less than a month until the primary.
Jimmy Carter	Yet'' by mid-March 1976 Carter was not only far ahead of the active contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination, he also led President Ford by a few percentage points'', according to Shoup.
Duncan Hunter	He was one of many Republicans swept into office from historically Democratic districts as a result of the'' Reagan revolution'' ; Van Deerlin had been the district's only congressman since its creation in 1963.
Bobby Schilling	While initially rated as a'' lean-Democrat'' race by major sites, in September 2012, Roll Call, the Cook Political Report, and the Rothenburg Political Report upgraded the race to'' toss-up'', with Cook saying Schilling had an advantage.
Michelle Bachelet	When she left office in March 2010 her popular support was at a record 84 %, according to conservative polling institute Adimark GfK.
Stephen Lynch (politician)	Lynch's candidacy in the 2013 special election had been portrayed as an uphill battle against liberal Democratic Rep. Ed Markey, who boasted a larger war chest and several major party endorsements.
Gil Dozier	Though Dozier had planned to run for governor in the 1979 nonpartisan blanket primary in which no incumbent was listed on the ballot, his ensuing legal problems and unsavory headlines made such a race highly speculative.
Dianne Primavera	Primavera's district, which contained more registered Republicans than Democrats, was one of those targeted by Colorado Republicans hoping to make gains during the midterm 2010 legislative elections.
Lyndon LaRouche	LaRouche again entered the primary elections for the Democratic Party's nomination in 2004, setting a record for the number of consecutive presidential campaigns ; Democratic Party officials distanced themselves from him and did not allow him to participate in candidate forum debates.
Sid McMath	The soldiers forced the admission of'' The Little Rock Nine'', as the black students became known, but the troops' presence, as McMath foretold, stirred states-rights sentiment to a frenzy, made Faubus a hero to a majority of Arkansas voters, and ensured his re-election to a record six terms in office each time, ironically, with an increasing percentage of the African-American vote, of which he garnered more than 80 % in the 1964 Democratic primary.
Bernie Sanders	Polling conducted in August 2011 by Public Policy Polling found that Sanders' approval rating was 67 % and his disapproval rating 28 %, making him then the third-most popular senator in the country.
Erskine Bowles	thumb | left | 200px | President Clinton and Bowles (wearing overcoat on the left) Although initially reluctant to seek political office, Bowles reconsidered a run for the United States Senate after the September 11, 2001 attacks and, in October 2001, declared his candidacy for the Senate as a Democratic candidate.
Tom Potter	In the months following the 2004 primary election, Potter maintained a 2-1 lead over City Commissioner Jim Francesconi in polls with roughly 25 % of the electorate still undecided through October of that year.
Rick Lazio	Lazio's personal website had begun to display on Google as'' Rick for US Senate,'' indicating that he may run against Democratic incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand, however in June 2011, Lazio confirmed that he would not do so.
Jim Dunnam	In history, Dunnam will be best known as'' the leader of the Democrats in the lower chamber, distinguished for years as the sharpest and most persistent thorn in the conservative paw,'' as the New York Times reported in November, 2010.
Jay Van Andel	A strong supporter of the Republican Party, Van Andel contributed $ 2 million to the re-election campaign of President George W. Bush, and $ 475,000 to the Michigan State Republican Party (mostly for state legislature candidates) in 2004 alone.
Scott Lee Cohen	Prior to the 2010 campaign season, Cohen had not run for or held political office and was virtually unknown to voters.
Richard Codey	According to the next FDU PublicMind poll released on April 13, 2005, Gov. Codey's recognition had improved significantly since the previous August when former Gov. McGreevey announced his resignation.
Marjorie Margolies	In 2000, she decided to run, but ultimately withdrew from the Democratic Senate primary with five other candidates, for the seat of Rick Santorum, after disappointing fundraising, mother's illness, and legal trouble of her husband, Edward Mezvinsky, which ended in a conviction for fraud.
John Shelton Wilder	Nonetheless, two Republican members of the Tennessee State Senate -- enough to assure Wilder's reelection provided his traditional unanimous Democratic support in recent years -- voted for Wilder on January 11, 2005, and he was sworn in for his 18th term as lieutenant governor.
Nelson Rockefeller	Rather than formally announce his candidacy and enter the state primaries, Rockefeller spent the first half of 1968 alternating between hints that he would run, and pronouncements that he would not be a candidate.
Frank LoBiondo	The Americans for Democratic Action in 2005 did not go that far, but placed him in a higher liberal quotient than most of the Republican representatives in those two states.
Newt Gingrich	A July 2010 poll conducted by Public Policy Polling indicated that Gingrich was the leading GOP contender for the Republican nomination with 23 % of likely Republican voters saying they would vote for him.
Jim Deshaies	In 2001, Deshaies ran a tongue-in-cheek campaign urging Baseball Writers Association of America voters to elect him to the Baseball Hall of Fame, even though he knew that he was not qualified for the honor.
Charles Stenholm	However, he was a major target of the Tom DeLay - engineered redrawing of Texas' congressional districts in 2003.
Katherine Harris	In early April 2006, Harris told the Tampa Tribune that some of her ex-campaign staffers and the national Republican party were deliberately sabotaging her campaign by'' putting knives in her back'' and had warned her that if she did not back out of the campaign, she would get an'' April surprise''.
Mike D. Rogers	Despite this, in 2008, he received a rating of 50 % from the American Conservative Union, one of the most moderate voting records of a Southern Republican for that year.
Elwyn Tinklenberg	Nevertheless, Bachmann won re-election, by just under 3 percentage point s. Although he had set up a website for a 2010 run for the seat, Tinklenberg announced that he had withdrawn from the race to allow the campaign against Bachmann to be conducted in a unified manner by DFL supporters.
Sharron Angle	A June 9, 2010, Rasmussen Reports post-primary poll showed her leading incumbent Senator Harry Reid by a margin of 50 % to 39 %.
Tim Cahill (politician)	On October 1, 2010, Loscocco announced he was withdrawing from the race for Lt. Governor and was endorsing Baker, although it was too late to remove his name from the ballot as Cahill's running mate.
Isaac S. Struble	On the controversial circumstances of Congressman Struble's defeat for renomination in the Iowa GOP's 11th Congressional District nominating convention of 1890 see two contemporary newspaper articles :'' Political Notes,'' New York Times, Wednesday, July 29, 1890, p. 4 ;'' An Iowa District in Doubt : Why That Represented by Mr. Struble May Go Democratic,'' New York Times, Wednesday September 14, 1890, p. 20.
Sally J. Lieber	In 2001 a group of citizens launched an effort to recall her from office but that effort was abandoned when Lieber won the Democratic primary for the 22nd Assembly District, a seat almost guaranteed to the Democratic candidate, by way of an earlier redistricting of voters in the 22nd Assembly District.
Keith Fimian	Fimian announced his candidacy early in the year and, according to The Washington Post, had raised over $ 1,200,000 as of June 2008.
Richard M. Daley	Daley's approval rating was at an all-time low of 35 % by late 2009.
Merwin Coad	There were reports that Coad was considering a 1962 bid for either the Senate or the Iowa governorship.
Duncan Hunter	During 2007, Hunter did well in some county - and state-level straw poll s, including a victory at the first GOP Texas Straw Poll on September 1 but those results did not transfer to regular polls at national or state levels.
Bob Riley	By February 14, 2006, Riley's approval ratings had slightly decreased, with 52 % approving and 43 % disapproving of his job as governor.
Alex Penelas	As a candidate in the United States Senate election in Florida, 2004, Penelas was unable to match the popularity or fundraising levels of rivals Betty Castor and Peter Deutsch in the August 2004 primary.
Sam Sparks	In 2006 he handled a case involving the Texas Republican Party's effort to get former Congressman Tom DeLay's name removed from the ballot in the 2006 Congressional Election.
Mike Rounds	; 2006 Rounds enjoyed high popularity throughout most of his first term.
Mitch Daniels	On March 6, 2011, Daniels was the winner of an Oregon (Republican Party) straw poll.
Hillary Rodham Clinton	Republicans made the Clinton health care plan a major campaign issue of the 1994 midterm elections, which saw a net Republican gain of fifty-three seats in the House election and seven in the Senate election, winning control of both ; many analysts and pollsters found the plan to be a major factor in the Democrats' defeat, especially among independent voters.
Mike Huckabee	On February 5, 2008, Huckabee won the first contest of'' Super Tuesday'', the West Virginia GOP state convention, but only after the McCain campaign provided their delegates thereby giving Huckabee 52 % of the electorate to Mitt Romney's 47 %.
Sam Steiger	Steiger's actions in the House were staunchly conservative, earning him, in 1974, a zero rating Americans for Democratic Action and a 100 % rating from Americans for Constitutional Action.
David A. Christian	A poll conducted by the Pittsburgh Tribune Review / WPXI-TV in early February 2012 showed Christian tied for last in the Republican field, with 1 % of respondents.
John Marty	On Tuesday, February 2, 2010, Marty finished in fourth place in a precinct caucus straw poll with approximately 9.
Jeb Hensarling	After the 2010 elections and the announcement from Pence that he was stepping away from his leadership position in the House (possibly to consider a run for Governor of Indiana, US President or Vice President), Hensarling became the favorite of the Republican leadership to move into the GOP Conference Chair (the fourth leadership post upon taking the majority).
Hillary Rodham Clinton	Through 2008, she had an average lifetime 90 percent'' Liberal Quotient'' from Americans for Democratic Action and a lifetime 8 percent rating from the American Conservative Union.
Medea Benjamin	In 2000, Benjamin ran for the United States Senate on the Green Party ticket from California, basing her campaign on such issues as a living wage, education, and universal healthcare ; she garnered 3 percent of the vote.
Heather Wilson	According to the Albuquerque Journal on Thursday, November 9, 2006, Wilson possessed a 1,300-plus-vote lead with 99 % of the votes counted.
Joe Scarborough	In early 2009, Scarborough confirmed reports that he had been approached by Florida Republicans who wanted him to run for the Senate seat vacated by Republican Mel Martinez.
Carl Paladino	He also campaigned for Gingrich in New York ; Paladino's impact was noted in Niagara, Cattaraugus and Wyoming Counties, counties that Paladino had carried in 2010 ; Gingrich, despite no longer being a serious contender for the nomination, polled strongly enough to prevent Romney (who was already the presumptive nominee at the time) from gaining a majority in those counties.
Joshua Chamberlain	His victory in 1866 set the record for the most votes and the highest percentage for any Maine governor by that time.
Christine Quinn	Records showed that nearly 25 percent of those'' secret slush'' funds went to organizations in Quinn's district, and that two of the biggest recipients of the funds had contributed to Quinn's 2009 mayoral run.
Wendell Willkie	8 million votes more than Alf Landon, the 1936 Republican candidate, and he ran strong in the rural Midwest, taking 57 % of the farm vote.