Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	work_peopl	63		✓	0.955	0	0.0452
1	work_peopl	63		✗	0	0	0
2	harri_reid	16		✓	0.114	0	0.000199
2	harri_reid	16		✗	0.883	0	0.00279
3	pretti_good	44		✓	0.187	0.000199	0.0125
3	pretti_good	44		✗	0.799	0	0.000796
4	good_deal	0		✓	0.00398	0	0
4	good_deal	0		✗	0.983	0.000199	0.0131
5	campaign_event	26		✓	0.134	0	0.00139
5	campaign_event	26		✗	0.865	0	0.000199
6	commun_colleg	31		✓	0.13	0	0
6	commun_colleg	31		✗	0.87	0	0
7	singl_dai	15		✓	0.0724	0	0.000995
7	singl_dai	15		✗	0.927	0	0
8	commun_colleg	36		✓	0.158	0	0
8	commun_colleg	36		✗	0.842	0	0
9	year_colleg	9		✓	0.0458	0	0
9	year_colleg	9		✗	0.954	0	0
10	long_hour	29		✓	0.158	0	0.000199
10	long_hour	29		✗	0.842	0	0
11	good_job	51		✓	0.223	0	0.00876
11	good_job	51		✗	0.768	0	0
12	work_hard	25		✓	0.119	0	0.00736
12	work_hard	25		✗	0.869	0	0.00378
13	unit_state	152		✓	0.534	0	0.0595
13	unit_state	152		✗	0.405	0	0.00159
14	america_futur	49		✓	0.214	0	0.0511
14	america_futur	49		✗	0.704	0	0.0308
15	highli_educ	33		✓	0.197	0.000398	0.00637
15	highli_educ	33		✗	0.779	0	0.0177
16	unit_state	42		✓	0.208	0	0.0115
16	unit_state	42		✗	0.776	0	0.00478
17	higher_educ	52		✓	0.234	0	0
17	higher_educ	52		✗	0.766	0	0
18	past_coupl	31		✓	0.136	0	0.000995
18	past_coupl	31		✗	0.863	0	0
19	__NUM___year	7		✓	0.0362	0	0.0125
19	__NUM___year	7		✗	0.95	0	0.000995
20	student_loan	29		✓	0.125	0.000199	0.0299
20	student_loan	29		✗	0.836	0	0.00955
21	middl_class	74		✓	0.165	0.000199	0.448
21	middl_class	74		✗	0.357	0	0.0299
22	class_famili	0		✓	0.00299	0	0.00458
22	class_famili	0		✗	0.517	0.000199	0.475
23	local_busi	25		✓	0.496	0	0.00577
23	local_busi	25		✗	0.461	0	0.037
24	singl_mom	29		✓	0.169	0	0
24	singl_mom	29		✗	0.831	0	0
25	collar_worker	7		✓	0.0362	0	0
25	collar_worker	7		✗	0.964	0	0
26	law_school	19		✓	0.0812	0	0.000796
26	law_school	19		✗	0.918	0	0
27	student_loan	37		✓	0.163	0	0.00279
27	student_loan	37		✗	0.834	0	0.000398
28	colleg_educ	39		✓	0.179	0	0
28	colleg_educ	39		✗	0.821	0	0
29	good_job	22		✓	0.0985	0	0.00199
29	good_job	22		✗	0.9	0	0
30	student_loan	16		✓	0.071	0	0.000597
30	student_loan	16		✗	0.928	0	0
31	__NUM___year_ago	2		✓	0.0133	0	0.000199
31	__NUM___year_ago	2		✗	0.986	0	0.000199
32	__NUM___year_ago	20		✓	0.083	0	0.00219
32	__NUM___year_ago	20		✗	0.915	0	0
33	higher_educ	58		✓	0.247	0	0
33	higher_educ	58		✗	0.753	0	0
34	young_peopl	4		✓	0.0207	0	0.000995
34	young_peopl	4		✗	0.978	0	0
35	top_prioriti	82		✓	0.352	0	0.000398
35	top_prioriti	82		✗	0.647	0	0
36	vote_booth	21		✓	0.108	0	0
36	vote_booth	21		✗	0.892	0	0
37	colleg_educ	32		✓	0.137	0	0.000199
37	colleg_educ	32		✗	0.863	0	0
38	work_famili	4		✓	0.0199	0	0.00199
38	work_famili	4		✗	0.978	0	0.000199
39	month_ago	16		✓	0.0728	0	0.000597
39	month_ago	16		✗	0.926	0	0.000199
40	young_peopl	8		✓	0.041	0	0.000995
40	young_peopl	8		✗	0.958	0	0.000398
41	borrow_monei	39		✓	0.172	0	0.00915
41	borrow_monei	39		✗	0.819	0	0.000597
42	high_school	75		✓	0.309	0	0
42	high_school	75		✗	0.691	0	0
43	school_student	0		✓	0.00418	0	0
43	school_student	0		✗	0.996	0	0
44	loan_program	24		✓	0.178	0	0
44	loan_program	24		✗	0.822	0	0
45	colleg_educ	9		✓	0.0394	0	0
45	colleg_educ	9		✗	0.961	0	0
46	colleg_tuition	12		✓	0.0621	0	0
46	colleg_tuition	12		✗	0.938	0	0
47	commun_colleg	9		✓	0.0426	0	0
47	commun_colleg	9		✗	0.957	0	0
48	higher_educ	4		✓	0.0195	0	0
48	higher_educ	4		✗	0.98	0	0
49	america_econom	3		✓	0.0153	0.000199	0.0316
49	america_econom	3		✗	0.953	0	0
50	econom_futur	0		✓	0.00438	0	0.00358
50	econom_futur	0		✗	0.961	0	0.031
51	young_person	37		✓	0.181	0	0
51	young_person	37		✗	0.819	0	0
52	borrow_monei	10		✓	0.05	0	0.000995
52	borrow_monei	10		✗	0.949	0	0
53	good_answer	30		✓	0.134	0	0.000398
53	good_answer	30		✗	0.866	0	0
54	fight_back	45		✓	0.189	0	0.134
54	fight_back	45		✗	0.677	0	0.000398
55	econom_crisi	4		✓	0.0169	0	0.0289
55	econom_crisi	4		✗	0.822	0	0.133
56	higher_educ	42		✓	0.314	0	0
56	higher_educ	42		✗	0.686	0	0.000199
57	world_war_ii	140		✓	0.532	0	0.000398
57	world_war_ii	140		✗	0.468	0	0
58	student_loan	71		✓	0.291	0	0.000995
58	student_loan	71		✗	0.708	0	0
59	young_person	17		✓	0.08	0	0
59	young_person	17		✗	0.92	0	0
60	young_peopl	22		✓	0.103	0	0.000796
60	young_peopl	22		✗	0.897	0	0
61	work_hard	12		✓	0.0647	0	0
61	work_hard	12		✗	0.935	0	0.000199
62	colleg_educ	3		✓	0.0161	0	0
62	colleg_educ	3		✗	0.984	0	0
63	__NUM___centuri	3		✓	0.0157	0	0
63	__NUM___centuri	3		✗	0.984	0	0
64	higher_educ	30		✓	0.134	0	0
64	higher_educ	30		✗	0.866	0	0
65	american_famili	12		✓	0.0557	0.000796	0.00139
65	american_famili	12		✗	0.942	0	0
66	__NUM___million	53		✓	0.224	0.000199	0.00776
66	__NUM___million	53		✗	0.768	0.000199	0
67	colleg_educ	5		✓	0.0334	0	0.00119
67	colleg_educ	5		✗	0.963	0	0.00219
68	econom_plan	15		✓	0.000597	0	0.991
68	econom_plan	15		✗	0.00438	0	0.00398
69	__NUM___million	46		✓	0.0125	0.000199	0.143
69	__NUM___million	46		✗	0.00159	0	0.842
70	financi_aid	16		✓	0.00119	0	0.0577
70	financi_aid	16		✗	0.00239	0	0.939
71	__NUM___million	3		✓	0.00259	0	0.0103
71	__NUM___million	3		✗	0.00299	0	0.984
72	__MONEY___trillion	40		✓	0	0	0.141
72	__MONEY___trillion	40		✗	0	0	0.859
73	tax_cut	1		✓	0.000199	0	0.00816
73	tax_cut	1		✗	0	0	0.992
74	young_peopl	61		✓	0.586	0	0.0784
74	young_peopl	61		✗	0.000199	0	0.335
75	student_loan	1		✓	0.00876	0	0.0121
75	student_loan	1		✗	0.571	0	0.408
76	corpor_tax	6		✓	0.0167	0	0.17
76	corpor_tax	6		✗	0.402	0	0.411
77	young_peopl	10		✓	0.0651	0	0.0287
77	young_peopl	10		✗	0.388	0	0.518
78	econom_plan	49		✓	0.00677	0	0.51
78	econom_plan	49		✗	0.0267	0	0.456
79	make_clear	1		✓	0.0205	0.000597	0.00657
79	make_clear	1		✗	0.0334	0	0.939
80	busi_owner	48		✓	0.169	0.0141	0.146
80	busi_owner	48		✗	0.0249	0.000597	0.645
81	__NUM___million	37		✓	0.674	0.000199	0.0185
81	__NUM___million	37		✗	0.16	0.00299	0.144
82	commun_colleg	8		✓	0.197	0	0
82	commun_colleg	8		✗	0.803	0	0.000199
83	local_busi	11		✓	0.0496	0	0
83	local_busi	11		✗	0.95	0	0
84	commun_colleg	6		✓	0.0291	0	0
84	commun_colleg	6		✗	0.971	0	0
85	young_peopl	13		✓	0.0603	0	0.000796
85	young_peopl	13		✗	0.939	0	0
86	comput_programm	19		✓	0.103	0.000597	0.0105
86	comput_programm	19		✗	0.885	0	0.000199
87	clean_energi	5		✓	0.0297	0	0.0107
87	clean_energi	5		✗	0.95	0.000199	0.00955
88	middl_class	10		✓	0.0496	0	0.00438
88	middl_class	10		✗	0.933	0	0.0133
89	harri_reid	16		✓	0.0903	0	0
89	harri_reid	16		✗	0.909	0	0.000199
90	interest_rate	10		✓	0.0452	0	0
90	interest_rate	10		✗	0.955	0	0
91	student_loan	3		✓	0.0163	0	0
91	student_loan	3		✗	0.984	0	0
92	__NUM___million	24		✓	0.105	0	0.00955
92	__NUM___million	24		✗	0.885	0	0
93	thousand_dollar	4		✓	0.0257	0	0.00239
93	thousand_dollar	4		✗	0.965	0	0.00697
94	harri_reid	7		✓	0.0615	0	0.000597
94	harri_reid	7		✗	0.935	0	0.00299
95	tax_credit	7		✓	0.035	0	0.00517
95	tax_credit	7		✗	0.956	0	0.00358
96	middl_class	4		✓	0.0183	0	0.087
96	middl_class	4		✗	0.887	0	0.00736
97	class_famili	0		✓	0.00478	0	0.00975
97	class_famili	0		✗	0.891	0	0.0941
98	__NUM___year	10		✓	0.0712	0	0.00657
98	__NUM___year	10		✗	0.85	0	0.0726
99	student_loan	21		✓	0.154	0	0.000597
99	student_loan	21		✗	0.841	0	0.00398
100	taxpay_dollar	9		✓	0.045	0	0
100	taxpay_dollar	9		✗	0.954	0	0.000597
101	big_bank	2		✓	0.0127	0	0.00239
101	big_bank	2		✗	0.984	0	0.000597
102	student_loan	18		✓	0.084	0	0
102	student_loan	18		✗	0.916	0	0
103	loan_program	0		✓	0.00318	0	0.000796
103	loan_program	0		✗	0.996	0	0
104	feder_govern	9		✓	0.0117	0	0.749
104	feder_govern	9		✗	0.238	0	0.00139
105	__NUM___billion	6		✓	0.00119	0	0.0828
105	__NUM___billion	6		✗	0.166	0	0.75
106	billion_dollar	0		✓	0	0	0.000199
106	billion_dollar	0		✗	0.167	0	0.833
107	student_loan	70		✓	0.999	0	0.000796
107	student_loan	70		✗	0.000398	0	0
108	loan_program	0		✓	0.00398	0	0
108	loan_program	0		✗	0.996	0	0
109	move_forward	28		✓	0.142	0	0.0372
109	move_forward	28		✗	0.82	0	0
110	year_ago	38		✓	0.17	0	0.042
110	year_ago	38		✗	0.766	0	0.0221
111	bin_laden	19		✓	0.114	0	0.00577
111	bin_laden	19		✗	0.856	0	0.0247
112	troop_home	26		✓	0.149	0	0
112	troop_home	26		✗	0.851	0	0.000398
113	gi_bill	66		✓	0.288	0	0
113	gi_bill	66		✗	0.712	0	0
114	colleg_educ	61		✓	0.259	0	0.000199
114	colleg_educ	61		✗	0.741	0	0
115	same_thing	81		✓	0.105	0	0.684
115	same_thing	81		✗	0.211	0	0
116	econom_plan	68		✓	0	0	0.472
116	econom_plan	68		✗	0.000398	0	0.528
117	american_peopl	8		✓	0.00756	0	0.0297
117	american_peopl	8		✗	0.000199	0	0.963
118	__MONEY___trillion	7		✓	0	0	0.0336
118	__MONEY___trillion	7		✗	0	0	0.966
119	tax_cut	1		✓	0.000199	0	0.00657
119	tax_cut	1		✗	0	0	0.993
120	__MONEY___million	80		✓	0.57	0.00119	0.11
120	__MONEY___million	80		✗	0.000199	0	0.319
121	american_peopl	45		✓	0.447	0	0.0179
121	american_peopl	45		✗	0.451	0	0.0848
122	fair_share	60		✓	0.308	0.000199	0.0243
122	fair_share	60		✗	0.645	0	0.0227
123	fellow_student	98		✓	0.355	0.0195	0.105
123	fellow_student	98		✗	0.505	0.000199	0.0159
124	special_interest	109		✓	0.533	0	0.000199
124	special_interest	109		✗	0.467	0	0.000597
125	turn_back	35		✓	0.17	0	0
125	turn_back	35		✗	0.83	0	0
126	bring_home	17		✓	0.0772	0	0
126	bring_home	17		✗	0.923	0	0
127	good_job	8		✓	0.0424	0.000199	0.000995
127	good_job	8		✗	0.956	0	0
128	work_hard	21		✓	0.0991	0	0.000398
128	work_hard	21		✗	0.9	0	0.000199
129	phone_call	25		✓	0.115	0	0
129	phone_call	25		✗	0.885	0	0
130	unit_state	27		✓	0.13	0	0.000796
130	unit_state	27		✗	0.869	0	0
131	god_bless	9		✓	0.0488	0	0
131	god_bless	9		✗	0.951	0	0
132	god_bless_america	2		✓	0.0137	0	0
132	god_bless_america	2		✗	0.986	0	0
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	2

Barack Obama

Cue-lag representation