Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	good_friend	83		✓	0.999	0.000597	0.000796
1	good_friend	83		✗	0	0	0
2	natur_resourc	38		✓	0.172	0	0.00458
2	natur_resourc	38		✗	0.823	0	0.000199
3	white_hous	69		✓	0.228	0.000597	0.236
3	white_hous	69		✗	0.532	0	0.00318
4	tv_set	40		✓	0.459	0.000199	0
4	tv_set	40		✗	0.54	0	0.00159
5	recent_memori	61		✓	0.264	0	0.000398
5	recent_memori	61		✗	0.736	0	0
6	vote_booth	43		✓	0.187	0	0
6	vote_booth	43		✗	0.813	0	0
7	__NUM___year_ago	37		✓	0.159	0	0.00557
7	__NUM___year_ago	37		✗	0.835	0	0
8	middl_class	25		✓	0.104	0	0.0253
8	middl_class	25		✗	0.866	0	0.00378
9	work_hard	27		✓	0.151	0	0.000199
9	work_hard	27		✗	0.848	0	0.000995
10	hard_work	2		✓	0.0117	0	0.000796
10	hard_work	2		✗	0.986	0	0.00119
11	health_care	59		✓	0.216	0.00119	0.115
11	health_care	59		✗	0.667	0	0.000995
12	middl_class	99		✓	0.273	0.000398	0.306
12	middl_class	99		✗	0.356	0.000796	0.0629
13	health_care	25		✓	0.116	0	0.0551
13	health_care	25		✗	0.533	0.000199	0.296
14	econom_crisi	13		✓	0.0581	0	0.0498
14	econom_crisi	13		✗	0.574	0	0.318
15	american_dream	28		✓	0.414	0	0.00478
15	american_dream	28		✗	0.55	0	0.032
16	auto_industri	45		✓	0.00398	0	0.955
16	auto_industri	45		✗	0.0149	0	0.0265
17	manufactur_job	12		✓	0.00438	0	0.05
17	manufactur_job	12		✗	0.0101	0	0.936
18	health_care	3		✓	0.387	0	0.00836
18	health_care	3		✗	0.0147	0	0.59
19	young_peopl	4		✓	0.279	0	0.00577
19	young_peopl	4		✗	0.391	0	0.324
20	move_forward	11		✓	0.0979	0	0.0179
20	move_forward	11		✗	0.625	0	0.259
21	hard_work	87		✓	0.499	0	0.0189
21	hard_work	87		✗	0.462	0	0.0201
22	unit_state	59		✓	0.244	0	0.0708
22	unit_state	59		✗	0.666	0	0.0193
23	tax_cut	267		✓	0.00239	0.00239	0.972
23	tax_cut	267		✗	0.000597	0	0.0225
24	wall_street	34		✓	0.000597	0	0.132
24	wall_street	34		✗	0.000398	0	0.867
25	same_kind	4		✓	0.000796	0	0.0165
25	same_kind	4		✗	0.000398	0	0.982
26	financi_crisi	6		✓	0	0	0.0227
26	financi_crisi	6		✗	0.000199	0	0.977
27	tax_cut	13		✓	0	0.000199	0.0452
27	tax_cut	13		✗	0	0	0.955
28	econom_plan	73		✓	0	0	0.246
28	econom_plan	73		✗	0	0	0.754
29	__MONEY___trillion	4		✓	0	0	0.0201
29	__MONEY___trillion	4		✗	0	0	0.98
30	tax_cut	1		✓	0	0	0.00736
30	tax_cut	1		✗	0	0	0.993
31	middl_class	22		✓	0.00259	0.000199	0.0706
31	middl_class	22		✗	0	0	0.927
32	__MONEY___trillion	20		✓	0	0	0.0689
32	__MONEY___trillion	20		✗	0	0	0.931
33	tax_plan	1		✓	0	0	0.00756
33	tax_plan	1		✗	0	0	0.992
34	rais_tax	7		✓	0	0	0.0279
34	rais_tax	7		✗	0	0	0.972
35	middl_class	2		✓	0.000398	0	0.00915
35	middl_class	2		✗	0	0	0.99
36	class_famili	0		✓	0	0	0.00318
36	class_famili	0		✗	0.000398	0	0.996
37	tax_cut	31		✓	0	0	0.104
37	tax_cut	31		✗	0	0	0.896
38	peopl_make	2		✓	0	0	0.0111
38	peopl_make	2		✗	0	0	0.989
39	__MONEY___million	3		✓	0.00119	0	0.0105
39	__MONEY___million	3		✗	0	0	0.988
40	tax_cut	26		✓	0.000199	0	0.0888
40	tax_cut	26		✗	0	0	0.911
41	creat_job	26		✓	0.00179	0	0.0876
41	creat_job	26		✗	0	0	0.911
42	tax_cut	29		✓	0.000199	0.000199	0.0979
42	tax_cut	29		✗	0	0	0.902
43	work_american	24		✓	0.000796	0.000597	0.0866
43	work_american	24		✗	0	0	0.912
44	tax_cut	7		✓	0	0.000199	0.0263
44	tax_cut	7		✗	0	0.000597	0.973
45	unit_state	47		✓	0.033	0	0.148
45	unit_state	47		✗	0	0	0.819
46	year_ago	2		✓	0.000398	0	0.0161
46	year_ago	2		✗	0.0267	0	0.957
47	middl_class	8		✓	0.00279	0.0101	0.0332
47	middl_class	8		✗	0.0121	0	0.942
48	class_famili	10		✓	0.00219	0.0195	0.0374
48	class_famili	10		✗	0.00637	0.0101	0.924
49	american_famili	74		✓	0.0597	0.343	0.144
49	american_famili	74		✗	0.000995	0.0291	0.423
50	incom_tax	6		✓	0	0.00517	0.0697
50	incom_tax	6		✗	0.00119	0.37	0.554
51	tax_cut	34		✓	0	0.000199	0.366
51	tax_cut	34		✗	0	0.0766	0.557
52	make___MONEY__	7		✓	0	0.000199	0.0702
52	make___MONEY__	7		✗	0	0.0289	0.901
53	__MONEY___million	0		✓	0.000796	0	0.00498
53	__MONEY___million	0		✗	0	0.0265	0.968
54	bill_clinton	26		✓	0.000199	0	0.115
54	bill_clinton	26		✗	0	0	0.884
55	pai_tax	34		✓	0.00119	0	0.114
55	pai_tax	34		✗	0	0	0.884
56	trillion_dollar	76		✓	0	0	0.254
56	trillion_dollar	76		✗	0	0	0.746
57	bill_clinton	34		✓	0.000199	0	0.116
57	bill_clinton	34		✗	0	0	0.884
58	__NUM___million	12		✓	0.0139	0	0.045
58	__NUM___million	12		✗	0.000199	0	0.941
59	construct_worker	36		✓	0.0362	0	0.122
59	construct_worker	36		✗	0.00697	0	0.834
60	economi_grow	87		✓	0.0673	0	0.292
60	economi_grow	87		✗	0.0107	0	0.63
61	auto_industri	69		✓	0.000796	0	0.289
61	auto_industri	69		✗	0.000398	0	0.71
62	__NUM___million_job	10		✓	0	0	0.0382
62	__NUM___million_job	10		✗	0	0	0.962
63	american_worker	26		✓	0.000597	0	0.0862
63	american_worker	26		✗	0	0	0.913
64	american_industri	6		✓	0	0	0.0213
64	american_industri	6		✗	0	0	0.979
65	auto_industri	6		✓	0	0	0.0221
65	auto_industri	6		✗	0	0	0.978
66	same_thing	19		✓	0	0	0.0617
66	same_thing	19		✗	0	0	0.938
67	manufactur_job	2		✓	0	0	0.00896
67	manufactur_job	2		✗	0	0	0.991
68	auto_industri	5		✓	0.000199	0	0.0183
68	auto_industri	5		✗	0	0	0.981
69	privat_sector	34		✓	0.000398	0	0.106
69	privat_sector	34		✗	0	0	0.893
70	tax_break	40		✓	0	0	0.139
70	tax_break	40		✗	0	0	0.861
71	job_oversea	6		✓	0	0	0.0243
71	job_oversea	6		✗	0	0	0.976
72	tax_break	5		✓	0	0	0.0233
72	tax_break	5		✗	0	0	0.977
73	unit_state	9		✓	0.00498	0	0.0322
73	unit_state	9		✗	0	0	0.963
74	american_worker	8		✓	0.000597	0	0.0275
74	american_worker	8		✗	0.000995	0	0.971
75	renew_energi	25		✓	0	0	0.0623
75	renew_energi	25		✗	0	0	0.938
76	tax_credit	17		✓	0	0	0.000398
76	tax_credit	17		✗	0	0	1
77	wind_energi	2		✓	0	0	0
77	wind_energi	2		✗	0	0	1
78	__NUM___job	24		✓	0	0	0.000597
78	__NUM___job	24		✗	0	0	0.999
79	tax_credit	6		✓	0	0	0.000199
79	tax_credit	6		✗	0	0	1
80	american_job	3		✓	0	0	0
80	american_job	3		✗	0	0	1
81	taxpay_subsidi	23		✓	0	0	0.000597
81	taxpay_subsidi	23		✗	0	0	0.999
82	oil_industri	3		✓	0	0	0.000398
82	oil_industri	3		✗	0	0	1
83	energi_sourc	14		✓	0.00557	0	0.00537
83	energi_sourc	14		✗	0	0	0.989
84	bin_laden	47		✓	0.775	0	0.208
84	bin_laden	47		✗	0.00498	0	0.0119
85	put_peopl	189		✓	0.609	0	0.127
85	put_peopl	189		✗	0.241	0	0.0231
86	__NUM___year_ago	46		✓	0.192	0	0.0826
86	__NUM___year_ago	46		✗	0.627	0	0.0981
87	presid_kennedi	7		✓	0.0281	0.000199	0.102
87	presid_kennedi	7		✗	0.694	0	0.176
88	__NUM___year	20		✓	0.0736	0	0.509
88	__NUM___year	20		✗	0.164	0	0.254
89	clean_water	22		✓	0.0103	0.000199	0.197
89	clean_water	22		✗	0.087	0	0.705
90	drink_water	3		✓	0.000995	0	0.0404
90	drink_water	3		✗	0.0679	0	0.891
91	long_overdu	3		✓	0.00318	0	0.0137
91	long_overdu	3		✗	0.0661	0	0.917
92	creat_job	9		✓	0.041	0.000199	0.0647
92	creat_job	9		✗	0.0239	0	0.87
93	make_life	3		✓	0.0589	0.000199	0.0123
93	make_life	3		✗	0.0641	0.000199	0.864
94	__NUM___million	59		✓	0.781	0.000398	0.0261
94	__NUM___million	59		✗	0.0896	0	0.103
95	commun_colleg	8		✓	0.161	0	0
95	commun_colleg	8		✗	0.839	0	0
96	__NUM___centuri	35		✓	0.152	0	0
96	__NUM___centuri	35		✗	0.848	0	0
97	higher_educ	2		✓	0.0127	0	0
97	higher_educ	2		✗	0.987	0	0
98	young_peopl	19		✓	0.0943	0	0.000995
98	young_peopl	19		✗	0.905	0	0
99	low_rate	53		✓	0.169	0	0
99	low_rate	53		✗	0.831	0	0
100	hous_market	34		✓	0.00239	0	0
100	hous_market	34		✗	0.998	0	0
101	afford_care_act	8		✓	0.000597	0	0
101	afford_care_act	8		✗	0.999	0	0
102	young_peopl	13		✓	0.00199	0	0
102	young_peopl	13		✗	0.998	0	0
103	health_care	10		✓	0.000995	0	0
103	health_care	10		✗	0.999	0	0
104	prescript_drug	10		✓	0.000398	0	0
104	prescript_drug	10		✗	1	0	0
105	health_insur	20		✓	0.00139	0	0.00279
105	health_insur	20		✗	0.996	0	0
106	health_care	37		✓	0.0937	0.000199	0.0163
106	health_care	37		✗	0.888	0	0.00159
107	good_idea	27		✓	0.271	0	0.0667
107	good_idea	27		✗	0.649	0	0.0129
108	immigr_law	39		✓	0.505	0.00199	0.0312
108	immigr_law	39		✗	0.438	0	0.0237
109	young_person	21		✓	0.275	0	0
109	young_person	21		✗	0.725	0	0
110	american_famili	51		✓	0.225	0.00378	0.00796
110	american_famili	51		✗	0.763	0	0
111	work_hard	63		✓	0.282	0	0.00915
111	work_hard	63		✗	0.708	0	0.000796
112	fair_share	21		✓	0.0901	0	0.0251
112	fair_share	21		✗	0.877	0	0.00776
113	middl_class	77		✓	0.166	0.000796	0.455
113	middl_class	77		✗	0.355	0	0.0231
114	feel_secur	4		✓	0.0173	0.000199	0.0201
114	feel_secur	4		✗	0.5	0.000597	0.462
115	__NUM___month	13		✓	0.34	0	0.00896
115	__NUM___month	13		✗	0.48	0	0.17
116	neg_ad	24		✓	0.267	0	0
116	neg_ad	24		✗	0.733	0	0
117	super_pac	16		✓	0.0762	0	0.000199
117	super_pac	16		✗	0.924	0	0
118	__MONEY___million	6		✓	0.0273	0.000199	0.074
118	__MONEY___million	6		✗	0.898	0	0.000199
119	same_argument	24		✓	0.077	0	0.275
119	same_argument	24		✗	0.583	0	0.0649
120	same_thing	5		✓	0.0179	0	0.0131
120	same_thing	5		✗	0.636	0	0.333
121	same_argument	16		✓	0.0561	0	0.0193
121	same_argument	16		✗	0.598	0	0.326
122	middl_class	53		✓	0.039	0.00657	0.559
122	middl_class	53		✗	0.115	0	0.281
123	cut_tax	31		✓	0.000398	0.00876	0.228
123	cut_tax	31		✗	0.00318	0.00637	0.754
124	feel_free	60		✓	0.997	0	0
124	feel_free	60		✗	0.00279	0.000199	0.000199
125	turn_back	21		✓	0.0955	0	0
125	turn_back	21		✗	0.904	0	0
126	good_job	14		✓	0.0635	0.000199	0.00498
126	good_job	14		✗	0.931	0	0
127	young_person	72		✓	0.301	0	0
127	young_person	72		✗	0.699	0	0
128	phone_call	204		✓	0.689	0	0
128	phone_call	204		✗	0.311	0	0
129	unit_state	39		✓	0.177	0	0.00299
129	unit_state	39		✗	0.82	0	0
130	god_bless	13		✓	0.0693	0	0
130	god_bless	13		✗	0.931	0	0
131	unit_state	5		✓	0.0245	0	0.00617
131	unit_state	5		✗	0.969	0	0
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	3

Barack Obama

Cue-lag representation