Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	__NUM___congression	69		✓	0.951	0.0384	0.0101
1	__NUM___congression	69		✗	0	0	0
2	congression_district	0		✓	0.0113	0	0
2	congression_district	0		✗	0.948	0.0344	0.00657
3	__NUM___dai	38		✓	0.213	0	0.00119
3	__NUM___dai	38		✗	0.785	0	0
4	good_luck	8		✓	0.0398	0	0.000995
4	good_luck	8		✗	0.959	0	0.000398
5	student_bodi	24		✓	0.112	0.00219	0.0547
5	student_bodi	24		✗	0.831	0	0.000597
6	polit_campaign	41		✓	0.257	0	0.000199
6	polit_campaign	41		✗	0.743	0.000199	0
7	good_thing	11		✓	0.0565	0	0
7	good_thing	11		✗	0.943	0	0
8	term_limit	13		✓	0.0605	0	0
8	term_limit	13		✗	0.94	0	0
9	polit_campaign	21		✓	0.0983	0	0.000199
9	polit_campaign	21		✗	0.901	0	0
10	state_senat	26		✓	0.114	0	0
10	state_senat	26		✗	0.886	0	0
11	home_state	13		✓	0.0589	0	0
11	home_state	13		✗	0.941	0	0
12	big_citi	21		✓	0.0935	0	0
12	big_citi	21		✗	0.906	0	0
13	small_town	4		✓	0.0197	0	0
13	small_town	4		✗	0.98	0	0
14	nativ_american	25		✓	0.115	0	0.000398
14	nativ_american	25		✗	0.885	0	0
15	common_theme	126		✓	0.492	0	0.000398
15	common_theme	126		✗	0.508	0	0
16	world_war_ii	41		✓	0.182	0	0
16	world_war_ii	41		✗	0.818	0	0
17	assembl_line	30		✓	0.128	0	0.00239
17	assembl_line	30		✗	0.87	0	0
18	gi_bill	18		✓	0.0808	0	0
18	gi_bill	18		✗	0.919	0	0
19	singl_mom	25		✓	0.113	0	0
19	singl_mom	25		✗	0.887	0	0
20	same_time	57		✓	0.246	0	0.000597
20	same_time	57		✗	0.753	0	0
21	collar_worker	48		✓	0.202	0.000199	0
21	collar_worker	48		✗	0.798	0	0
22	american_idea	165		✓	0.593	0	0.00239
22	american_idea	165		✗	0.405	0	0
23	american_dream	4		✓	0.0227	0	0
23	american_dream	4		✗	0.977	0	0
24	work_hard	18		✓	0.0806	0	0.000995
24	work_hard	18		✗	0.918	0	0
25	middl_class	39		✓	0.174	0	0.00199
25	middl_class	39		✗	0.824	0	0
26	class_life	0		✓	0.00677	0	0
26	class_life	0		✗	0.993	0	0
27	bank_account	12		✓	0.0597	0	0.000199
27	bank_account	12		✗	0.94	0	0
28	spend_time	56		✓	0.233	0.000199	0.000796
28	spend_time	56		✗	0.766	0	0
29	work_hard	26		✓	0.118	0.000199	0.0173
29	work_hard	26		✗	0.864	0	0.000796
30	higher_incom	100		✓	0.216	0	0.469
30	higher_incom	100		✗	0.305	0	0.00995
31	higher_wage	2		✓	0.0362	0	0.00418
31	higher_wage	2		✗	0.514	0	0.446
32	health_care	11		✓	0.0818	0.000199	0.0247
32	health_care	11		✗	0.513	0	0.38
33	american_idea	62		✓	0.31	0.000199	0.0985
33	american_idea	62		✗	0.388	0	0.204
34	middl_class	59		✓	0.0119	0.000398	0.712
34	middl_class	59		✗	0.0326	0	0.243
35	class_famili	0		✓	0	0	0.00955
35	class_famili	0		✗	0.038	0.000199	0.952
36	__NUM___year	25		✓	0.0273	0	0.0919
36	__NUM___year	25		✗	0.0279	0	0.853
37	financi_crisi	47		✓	0.0344	0	0.171
37	financi_crisi	47		✗	0.0215	0	0.773
38	great_depress	3		✓	0.0125	0	0.0107
38	great_depress	3		✗	0.0553	0	0.921
39	tough_time	21		✓	0.706	0	0.0179
39	tough_time	21		✗	0.0615	0	0.214
40	fought_back	10		✓	0.0503	0.000199	0.0253
40	fought_back	10		✗	0.719	0	0.205
41	creat___NUM__	3		✓	0.00279	0	0.59
41	creat___NUM__	3		✗	0.18	0	0.228
42	__NUM___million	0		✓	0.00139	0	0.0173
42	__NUM___million	0		✗	0.166	0	0.816
43	manufactur_job	6		✓	0.00358	0	0.125
43	manufactur_job	6		✗	0.0599	0	0.812
44	tough_time	33		✓	0.91	0	0.00318
44	tough_time	33		✗	0.0543	0	0.0328
45	american_peopl	3		✓	0.0205	0	0.00119
45	american_peopl	3		✗	0.95	0	0.0285
46	hard_work	93		✓	0.394	0	0.00776
46	hard_work	93		✗	0.598	0	0.000597
47	unit_state	60		✓	0.243	0	0.0167
47	unit_state	60		✗	0.738	0	0.00219
48	__NUM___centuri	76		✓	0.337	0	0
48	__NUM___centuri	76		✗	0.663	0	0
49	american_centuri	2		✓	0.0137	0.000398	0
49	american_centuri	2		✗	0.986	0	0
50	__NUM___centuri	4		✓	0.0215	0	0.000199
50	__NUM___centuri	4		✗	0.978	0	0
51	good_idea	14		✓	0.0691	0	0.0356
51	good_idea	14		✗	0.895	0	0.000199
52	polit_parti	28		✓	0.178	0.000199	0.00458
52	polit_parti	28		✗	0.813	0	0.00418
53	cut_tax	49		✓	0.000398	0.00716	0.984
53	cut_tax	49		✗	0.000398	0	0.00796
54	big_part	66		✓	0	0	0.223
54	big_part	66		✗	0	0.000199	0.776
55	cut_tax	7		✓	0	0.000199	0.0233
55	cut_tax	7		✗	0	0.000199	0.976
56	big_idea	8		✓	0.000597	0	0.0324
56	big_idea	8		✗	0	0	0.967
57	oil_compani	7		✓	0	0	0.0215
57	oil_compani	7		✗	0	0	0.979
58	insur_compani	2		✓	0	0	0.0117
58	insur_compani	2		✗	0	0	0.988
59	credit_card_compani	2		✓	0	0	0.00915
59	credit_card_compani	2		✗	0	0	0.991
60	web_site	39		✓	0.00517	0.000199	0.124
60	web_site	39		✗	0	0	0.871
61	job_growth	105		✓	0	0	0.339
61	job_growth	105		✗	0	0	0.661
62	averag_incom	4		✓	0.000199	0	0.0145
62	averag_incom	4		✗	0	0	0.985
63	middl_class	2		✓	0.000199	0	0.0113
63	middl_class	2		✗	0	0	0.988
64	class_famili	0		✓	0	0	0.00239
64	class_famili	0		✗	0	0	0.998
65	work_american	82		✓	0.00756	0.00139	0.271
65	work_american	82		✗	0	0	0.72
66	middl_class	29		✓	0.0199	0	0.1
66	middl_class	29		✗	0.00338	0.000199	0.876
67	unit_state	23		✓	0.0287	0	0.0732
67	unit_state	23		✗	0.0171	0	0.881
68	auto_industri	22		✓	0.000199	0	0.118
68	auto_industri	22		✗	0.00239	0	0.88
69	american_worker	29		✓	0.00119	0.000398	0.1
69	american_worker	29		✗	0.000199	0	0.898
70	auto_industri	27		✓	0.000796	0	0.08
70	auto_industri	27		✗	0	0	0.919
71	privat_busi	79		✓	0.0293	0.000995	0.243
71	privat_busi	79		✗	0.000199	0	0.727
72	tax_break	26		✓	0	0	0.115
72	tax_break	26		✗	0.000199	0	0.885
73	job_oversea	6		✓	0	0	0.0217
73	job_oversea	6		✗	0	0	0.978
74	tax_break	4		✓	0.000199	0	0.0155
74	tax_break	4		✗	0	0	0.984
75	unit_state	13		✓	0.0501	0	0.0416
75	unit_state	13		✗	0.000398	0	0.908
76	american_worker	5		✓	0.00816	0.000199	0.0217
76	american_worker	5		✗	0.0442	0	0.926
77	unit_state	18		✓	0.189	0	0.049
77	unit_state	18		✗	0.0448	0	0.717
78	bin_laden	57		✓	0.153	0	0.171
78	bin_laden	57		✗	0.142	0	0.534
79	good_time	22		✓	0.0404	0	0.119
79	good_time	22		✗	0.202	0	0.638
80	northern_virginia	55		✓	0.796	0.000199	0.00458
80	northern_virginia	55		✗	0.182	0	0.0173
81	construct_worker	47		✓	0.191	0	0.0629
81	construct_worker	47		✗	0.732	0	0.0139
82	unit_state	51		✓	0.274	0	0.00139
82	unit_state	51		✗	0.723	0	0.00159
83	educ_system	4		✓	0.0261	0	0
83	educ_system	4		✗	0.974	0	0.000398
84	student_loan	32		✓	0.136	0	0.000796
84	student_loan	32		✗	0.863	0	0
85	tax_credit	14		✓	0.0613	0	0
85	tax_credit	14		✗	0.939	0	0
86	pell_grant	14		✓	0.0643	0	0
86	pell_grant	14		✗	0.936	0	0
87	young_peopl	13		✓	0.0585	0	0.000199
87	young_peopl	13		✗	0.941	0	0
88	__NUM___million	15		✓	0.0681	0	0.00139
88	__NUM___million	15		✗	0.931	0	0
89	commun_colleg	7		✓	0.0336	0	0
89	commun_colleg	7		✗	0.966	0	0
90	__NUM___centuri	27		✓	0.116	0	0
90	__NUM___centuri	27		✗	0.884	0	0
91	higher_educ	3		✓	0.0175	0	0
91	higher_educ	3		✗	0.982	0	0
92	high_school	31		✓	0.143	0	0
92	high_school	31		✗	0.857	0	0
93	young_peopl	14		✓	0.0774	0	0.000398
93	young_peopl	14		✗	0.922	0	0
94	unit_state	17		✓	0.0927	0	0.000597
94	unit_state	17		✗	0.907	0	0
95	hous_market	8		✓	0.0402	0.000995	0
95	hous_market	8		✗	0.959	0	0
96	told_congress	15		✓	0.00498	0.00498	0
96	told_congress	15		✗	0.989	0.000995	0
97	low_rate	18		✓	0.00796	0	0
97	low_rate	18		✗	0.992	0	0
98	averag_famili	5		✓	0	0	0
98	averag_famili	5		✗	1	0	0
99	bad_decis	59		✓	0.00716	0.000199	0.00119
99	bad_decis	59		✗	0.991	0	0
100	health_care	31		✓	0.00318	0	0
100	health_care	31		✗	0.997	0	0.000199
101	comprehens_immigr	77		✓	0.00756	0	0
101	comprehens_immigr	77		✗	0.992	0	0
102	immigr_reform	0		✓	0	0	0
102	immigr_reform	0		✗	1	0	0
103	border_secur	19		✓	0.00239	0	0
103	border_secur	19		✗	0.998	0	0
104	afford_care_act	36		✓	0.00299	0	0
104	afford_care_act	36		✗	0.997	0	0
105	suprem_court	28		✓	0.00119	0	0
105	suprem_court	28		✗	0.999	0	0
106	health_insur	11		✓	0.000796	0	0
106	health_insur	11		✗	0.999	0	0
107	insur_compani	17		✓	0.000995	0	0
107	insur_compani	17		✗	0.999	0	0
108	fine_print	7		✓	0.000796	0	0
108	fine_print	7		✗	0.999	0	0
109	young_person	9		✓	0.674	0	0
109	young_person	9		✗	0.326	0	0
110	__NUM___year	12		✓	0.0388	0	0.000796
110	__NUM___year	12		✗	0.96	0	0
111	lower_cost	5		✓	0.0139	0	0
111	lower_cost	5		✗	0.986	0	0
112	prescript_drug	3		✓	0.000796	0	0
112	prescript_drug	3		✗	0.999	0	0
113	prevent_care	5		✓	0.000199	0	0
113	prevent_care	5		✗	1	0	0
114	health_insur	10		✓	0.000796	0	0
114	health_insur	10		✗	0.999	0	0
115	afford_care_act	37		✓	0.00259	0	0.000199
115	afford_care_act	37		✗	0.997	0	0
116	health_care	8		✓	0.0342	0	0.00458
116	health_care	8		✗	0.961	0	0.000199
117	futur_gener	66		✓	0.896	0	0.0573
117	futur_gener	66		✗	0.0454	0	0.000995
118	bush_tax_cut	19		✓	0.000199	0	0.946
118	bush_tax_cut	19		✗	0.00199	0	0.0519
119	__MONEY___trillion	14		✓	0	0	0.0547
119	__MONEY___trillion	14		✗	0	0	0.945
120	tax_cut	2		✓	0	0	0.00836
120	tax_cut	2		✗	0	0	0.992
121	web_site	27		✓	0.00358	0	0.0886
121	web_site	27		✗	0	0	0.908
122	econom_growth	69		✓	0.0119	0	0.227
122	econom_growth	69		✗	0.000597	0	0.76
123	middl_class	9		✓	0.000398	0	0.0426
123	middl_class	9		✗	0.000398	0	0.957
124	class_famili	0		✓	0	0	0.00398
124	class_famili	0		✗	0.000199	0	0.996
125	make___MONEY__	5		✓	0	0.000199	0.0179
125	make___MONEY__	5		✗	0	0	0.982
126	incom_tax	23		✓	0	0.0119	0.0782
126	incom_tax	23		✗	0	0.000199	0.91
127	small_busi	33		✓	0.000597	0.000995	0.115
127	small_busi	33		✗	0	0.00915	0.874
128	vast_major	7		✓	0.000398	0	0.0366
128	vast_major	7		✗	0.000398	0.000597	0.962
129	trillion_dollar	17		✓	0	0	0.0591
129	trillion_dollar	17		✗	0	0	0.941
130	govern_program	6		✓	0.00697	0.000199	0.0217
130	govern_program	6		✗	0	0	0.971
131	educ_system	19		✓	0.958	0	0.000796
131	educ_system	19		✗	0.00617	0	0.0346
132	bill_clinton	149		✓	0.000398	0	0.983
132	bill_clinton	149		✗	0.000995	0	0.0159
133	__NUM___million	11		✓	0.00418	0	0.0384
133	__NUM___million	11		✗	0.00119	0	0.956
134	middl_class	18		✓	0.00119	0	0.0691
134	middl_class	18		✗	0.000597	0	0.929
135	work_peopl	2		✓	0.00119	0	0.00776
135	work_peopl	2		✗	0.00119	0	0.99
136	small_busi	8		✓	0.000199	0	0.0336
136	small_busi	8		✗	0.000398	0	0.966
137	big_busi	3		✓	0.00179	0	0.0113
137	big_busi	3		✗	0.000597	0	0.986
138	neg_ad	98		✓	0.998	0	0.000199
138	neg_ad	98		✗	0.00179	0	0
139	__MONEY___million	8		✓	0.0428	0.000995	0.00398
139	__MONEY___million	8		✗	0.952	0	0
140	citizen_unit	5		✓	0.0287	0.000199	0.00179
140	citizen_unit	5		✗	0.965	0.000995	0.00358
141	singl_dai	20		✓	0.0991	0	0.00338
141	singl_dai	20		✗	0.897	0	0.000995
142	american_peopl	93		✓	0.37	0	0.0221
142	american_peopl	93		✗	0.608	0	0.000398
143	perfect_union	123		✓	0.482	0	0.00517
143	perfect_union	123		✗	0.512	0	0
144	move_forward	12		✓	0.0587	0	0.00856
144	move_forward	12		✗	0.929	0	0.00418
145	fair_share	46		✓	0.211	0	0.00597
145	fair_share	46		✗	0.78	0	0.00219
146	gi_bill	61		✓	0.26	0	0
146	gi_bill	61		✗	0.74	0	0
147	middl_class	101		✓	0.00378	0.000398	0.991
147	middl_class	101		✗	0.00438	0	0
148	class_famili	0		✓	0	0	0.00935
148	class_famili	0		✗	0.00199	0.000398	0.988
149	higher_tax	5		✓	0	0	0.0205
149	higher_tax	5		✗	0.000398	0	0.979
150	american_peopl	116		✓	0.938	0	0.0245
150	american_peopl	116		✗	0.000398	0	0.0372
151	unit_state	41		✓	0.225	0	0.00279
151	unit_state	41		✗	0.767	0	0.00498
152	god_bless	9		✓	0.0521	0	0
152	god_bless	9		✗	0.948	0	0
153	unit_state	7		✓	0.0346	0	0.00995
153	unit_state	7		✗	0.955	0	0
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	3

Barack Obama

Cue-lag representation