Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	feel_good	72		✓	0.998	0.000398	0.00179
1	feel_good	72		✗	0	0	0
2	sherrod_brown	114		✓	0.444	0	0.00378
2	sherrod_brown	114		✗	0.552	0	0
3	middl_class	62		✓	0.259	0.000199	0.0217
3	middl_class	62		✗	0.717	0	0.00159
4	singl_dai	2		✓	0.0183	0	0.000995
4	singl_dai	2		✗	0.964	0	0.0169
5	turn___NUM__	115		✓	0.457	0	0.00318
5	turn___NUM__	115		✗	0.54	0	0
6	state_senat	160		✓	0.59	0	0
6	state_senat	160		✗	0.41	0	0
7	senat_seat	0		✓	0.00378	0	0
7	senat_seat	0		✗	0.996	0	0
8	make_sens	47		✓	0.194	0	0.0318
8	make_sens	47		✗	0.774	0	0
9	tv_ad	19		✓	0.114	0.000199	0.000199
9	tv_ad	19		✗	0.882	0	0.00318
10	groceri_store	34		✓	0.146	0.0193	0.00517
10	groceri_store	34		✗	0.828	0.000199	0.000796
11	shake_hand	4		✓	0.0179	0.000995	0
11	shake_hand	4		✗	0.957	0.0193	0.00438
12	hyde_park	16		✓	0.0464	0.00318	0.0149
12	hyde_park	16		✗	0.912	0.0199	0.00398
13	state_senat	94		✓	0.603	0	0
13	state_senat	94		✗	0.397	0	0
14	unit_state	11		✓	0.0915	0	0.000597
14	unit_state	11		✗	0.908	0	0
15	state_senat	0		✓	0.00458	0	0
15	state_senat	0		✗	0.995	0	0
16	__NUM___year	3		✓	0.0161	0	0.000398
16	__NUM___year	3		✗	0.983	0	0
17	state_senat	3		✓	0.0171	0	0
17	state_senat	3		✗	0.983	0	0
18	big_citi	57		✓	0.245	0	0
18	big_citi	57		✗	0.755	0	0
19	rural_commun	2		✓	0.0159	0	0.000199
19	rural_commun	2		✗	0.984	0	0
20	senat_race	52		✓	0.221	0	0.0302
20	senat_race	52		✗	0.749	0	0
21	state_senat	12		✓	0.089	0	0
21	state_senat	12		✗	0.911	0	0
22	american_idea	20		✓	0.0945	0	0.00119
22	american_idea	20		✗	0.904	0	0
23	work_hard	10		✓	0.0478	0	0.00199
23	work_hard	10		✗	0.949	0	0.00119
24	world_war_ii	130		✓	0.494	0	0
24	world_war_ii	130		✗	0.506	0	0
25	assembl_line	16		✓	0.0746	0	0.000597
25	assembl_line	16		✗	0.925	0	0
26	gi_bill	15		✓	0.0716	0	0
26	gi_bill	15		✗	0.928	0	0
27	singl_mom	40		✓	0.173	0	0
27	singl_mom	40		✗	0.827	0	0
28	collar_worker	71		✓	0.303	0	0.000199
28	collar_worker	71		✗	0.697	0	0
29	american_dream	86		✓	0.368	0	0.000199
29	american_dream	86		✗	0.632	0	0
30	work_hard	7		✓	0.0306	0	0
30	work_hard	7		✗	0.969	0	0
31	live_wage	10		✓	0.0438	0	0
31	live_wage	10		✗	0.956	0	0
32	work_harder	93		✓	0.368	0	0.0149
32	work_harder	93		✗	0.617	0	0
33	health_care	25		✓	0.1	0	0.0816
33	health_care	25		✗	0.806	0	0.0121
34	ga_price	13		✓	0.0541	0	0.073
34	ga_price	13		✗	0.783	0	0.0898
35	state_senat	34		✓	0.311	0	0.000398
35	state_senat	34		✗	0.688	0	0.000995
36	middl_class	52		✓	0.17	0.000597	0.262
36	middl_class	52		✗	0.567	0	0.000199
37	unit_state	35		✓	0.135	0	0.108
37	unit_state	35		✗	0.552	0	0.205
38	middl_class	36		✓	0.0748	0.00139	0.318
38	middl_class	36		✗	0.339	0	0.266
39	class_struggl	0		✓	0.00259	0.000199	0.00478
39	class_struggl	0		✗	0.409	0.00139	0.582
40	middl_class	10		✓	0.0115	0	0.218
40	middl_class	10		✗	0.205	0.000199	0.566
41	poor_folk	21		✓	0.00259	0	0.248
41	poor_folk	21		✗	0.0177	0	0.732
42	middl_class	13		✓	0.184	0	0.0354
42	middl_class	13		✗	0.0187	0	0.761
43	bank_account	27		✓	0.704	0.000398	0.00975
43	bank_account	27		✗	0.176	0	0.11
44	auto_industri	42		✓	0.0468	0	0.66
44	auto_industri	42		✗	0.191	0	0.103
45	__NUM___dai	22		✓	0.365	0	0.0324
45	__NUM___dai	22		✗	0.209	0	0.394
46	american_worker	47		✓	0.0159	0.000597	0.571
46	american_worker	47		✗	0.0533	0	0.359
47	unemploy_rate	41		✓	0.00557	0	0.186
47	unemploy_rate	41		✗	0.00935	0	0.799
48	colleg_educ	45		✓	0.984	0.000199	0.000398
48	colleg_educ	45		✗	0.0133	0	0.00179
49	move_forward	43		✓	0.184	0.000199	0.0486
49	move_forward	43		✗	0.766	0	0.00119
50	polit_report	125		✓	0.492	0.00299	0.0181
50	polit_report	125		✗	0.483	0.000199	0.00338
51	polit_parti	49		✓	0.245	0	0.00418
51	polit_parti	49		✗	0.749	0	0.00199
52	move_forward	12		✓	0.0432	0.000199	0.274
52	move_forward	12		✗	0.676	0	0.00577
53	cut_tax	20		✓	0	0.00119	0.734
53	cut_tax	20		✗	0	0	0.265
54	__MONEY___trillion	9		✓	0	0	0.034
54	__MONEY___trillion	9		✗	0	0	0.966
55	bush_tax_cut	5		✓	0	0	0.0217
55	bush_tax_cut	5		✗	0	0	0.978
56	voucher_program	14		✓	0	0	0.0432
56	voucher_program	14		✗	0	0	0.957
57	wall_street_bank	43		✓	0	0	0.142
57	wall_street_bank	43		✗	0	0	0.858
58	web_site	64		✓	0.00418	0	0.209
58	web_site	64		✗	0	0	0.787
59	__NUM___year	24		✓	0.0163	0	0.0818
59	__NUM___year	24		✗	0.00199	0	0.9
60	unit_state	10		✓	0.00756	0	0.0416
60	unit_state	10		✗	0.0137	0	0.937
61	middl_class	10		✓	0.000398	0	0.0551
61	middl_class	10		✗	0.00279	0	0.942
62	job_growth	2		✓	0	0	0.0129
62	job_growth	2		✗	0.000199	0	0.987
63	financi_crisi	28		✓	0.00478	0	0.0973
63	financi_crisi	28		✗	0	0	0.898
64	great_depress	5		✓	0.00517	0	0.0185
64	great_depress	5		✗	0.00438	0	0.972
65	middl_class	43		✓	0.315	0.000796	0.0915
65	middl_class	43		✗	0.00796	0	0.585
66	fair_share	23		✓	0.378	0	0.0259
66	fair_share	23		✗	0.286	0	0.31
67	move_forward	20		✓	0.0999	0	0.0525
67	move_forward	20		✗	0.57	0	0.278
68	make_progress	6		✓	0.0297	0	0.0229
68	make_progress	6		✗	0.632	0	0.315
69	tax_break	10		✓	0.000199	0	0.667
69	tax_break	10		✗	0.00239	0	0.33
70	job_oversea	6		✓	0	0	0.0225
70	job_oversea	6		✗	0	0	0.978
71	unit_state	13		✓	0.0328	0	0.0448
71	unit_state	13		✗	0.000199	0	0.922
72	move_forward	7		✓	0.00657	0	0.0239
72	move_forward	7		✗	0.0297	0	0.94
73	clean_energi	44		✓	0	0	0.145
73	clean_energi	44		✗	0	0	0.855
74	solar_panel	5		✓	0	0	0.00179
74	solar_panel	5		✗	0	0	0.998
75	wind_turbin	2		✓	0	0	0.000597
75	wind_turbin	2		✗	0	0	0.999
76	unit_state	6		✓	0.599	0	0.0141
76	unit_state	6		✗	0	0	0.386
77	move_forward	10		✓	0.36	0	0.0169
77	move_forward	10		✗	0.561	0	0.0627
78	young_peopl	18		✓	0.147	0	0.00259
78	young_peopl	18		✗	0.845	0	0.00537
79	__NUM___million	38		✓	0.176	0.000199	0.00756
79	__NUM___million	38		✗	0.815	0	0.00159
80	commun_colleg	9		✓	0.0527	0	0
80	commun_colleg	9		✗	0.947	0	0.000199
81	young_peopl	19		✓	0.107	0	0.00139
81	young_peopl	19		✗	0.892	0	0
82	move_forward	8		✓	0.0567	0	0.00716
82	move_forward	8		✗	0.935	0	0.000995
83	health_care_system	17		✓	0.0738	0	0.0125
83	health_care_system	17		✗	0.908	0	0.00517
84	middl_class	5		✓	0.0521	0.00179	0.138
84	middl_class	5		✗	0.791	0	0.0171
85	class_famili	0		✓	0.00418	0	0.00378
85	class_famili	0		✗	0.835	0.00179	0.155
86	health_care	18		✓	0.224	0	0.000597
86	health_care	18		✗	0.772	0	0.00259
87	law_pass	1		✓	0.00398	0	0
87	law_pass	1		✗	0.994	0	0.00159
88	health_insur	24		✓	0.0223	0	0
88	health_insur	24		✗	0.978	0	0
89	insur_compani	13		✓	0.000597	0	0
89	insur_compani	13		✗	0.999	0	0
90	health_insur	23		✓	0.00219	0	0
90	health_insur	23		✗	0.998	0	0
91	insur_plan	0		✓	0	0	0
91	insur_plan	0		✗	1	0	0
92	insur_compani	24		✓	0.000796	0	0.000398
92	insur_compani	24		✗	0.999	0	0
93	health_insur	43		✓	0.00239	0	0.000398
93	health_insur	43		✗	0.997	0	0.000199
94	big_compani	26		✓	0.00199	0	0.000796
94	big_compani	26		✗	0.997	0	0.000597
95	prescript_drug	13		✓	0.000796	0	0.00219
95	prescript_drug	13		✗	0.996	0	0.00119
96	move_forward	36		✓	0.0388	0	0.807
96	move_forward	36		✗	0.152	0	0.00239
97	american_energi	6		✓	0.000398	0	0.206
97	american_energi	6		✗	0	0	0.794
98	energi_polici	0		✓	0	0	0.000398
98	energi_polici	0		✗	0	0	1
99	long_time	12		✓	0.00876	0	0.00259
99	long_time	12		✗	0	0	0.989
100	increas_product	25		✓	0.00458	0	0.0107
100	increas_product	25		✗	0.00597	0	0.979
101	foreign_oil	22		✓	0.00119	0	0.0237
101	foreign_oil	22		✗	0.00338	0	0.972
102	put_peopl	8		✓	0.546	0	0.0663
102	put_peopl	8		✗	0.00378	0	0.384
103	move_forward	8		✓	0.228	0.000199	0.0641
103	move_forward	8		✗	0.523	0	0.185
104	bin_laden	35		✓	0.212	0	0.0814
104	bin_laden	35		✗	0.601	0	0.106
105	put_peopl	51		✓	0.187	0	0.15
105	put_peopl	51		✗	0.534	0	0.128
106	move_forward	32		✓	0.0838	0.000398	0.22
106	move_forward	32		✗	0.459	0	0.237
107	tax_cut	51		✓	0.000398	0.000597	0.617
107	tax_cut	51		✗	0.00259	0.000199	0.379
108	credit_card	11		✓	0	0	0.0434
108	credit_card	11		✗	0	0	0.957
109	__MONEY___trillion	12		✓	0	0	0.047
109	__MONEY___trillion	12		✗	0	0	0.953
110	tax_cut	2		✓	0.000199	0	0.00776
110	tax_cut	2		✗	0	0	0.992
111	govern_program	71		✓	0.00219	0	0.23
111	govern_program	71		✗	0	0	0.767
112	social_secur	89		✓	0.000597	0	0.3
112	social_secur	89		✗	0	0	0.699
113	spend_cut	11		✓	0.000199	0	0.0352
113	spend_cut	11		✗	0	0	0.965
114	tax_cut	28		✓	0.00259	0.000398	0.102
114	tax_cut	28		✗	0.000199	0	0.895
115	great_thing	152		✓	0.923	0	0.0332
115	great_thing	152		✗	0.00179	0	0.042
116	special_interest	41		✓	0.233	0	0.000796
116	special_interest	41		✗	0.762	0	0.00358
117	bill_clinton	24		✓	0	0	0.997
117	bill_clinton	24		✗	0.000398	0	0.00279
118	creat___NUM__	5		✓	0	0	0.0163
118	creat___NUM__	5		✗	0	0	0.984
119	__NUM___million_job	0		✓	0	0	0.00259
119	__NUM___million_job	0		✗	0	0	0.997
120	america_great	68		✓	0.899	0.000199	0.0227
120	america_great	68		✗	0	0	0.0782
121	rug_individu	5		✓	0.0229	0.000597	0.0665
121	rug_individu	5		✗	0.815	0.000199	0.0947
122	small_busi	15		✓	0.00776	0.00896	0.71
122	small_busi	15		✗	0.121	0.000597	0.152
123	big_busi	11		✓	0.00517	0	0.0995
123	big_busi	11		✗	0.0639	0.00577	0.826
124	gi_bill	54		✓	0.943	0	0.00159
124	gi_bill	54		✗	0.0509	0	0.00458
125	highwai_system	27		✓	0.00438	0	0.956
125	highwai_system	27		✗	0.0336	0	0.00617
126	__NUM___month	45		✓	0.0997	0	0.134
126	__NUM___month	45		✗	0.0247	0	0.742
127	__MONEY___million	31		✓	0.0137	0	0.167
127	__MONEY___million	31		✗	0.0422	0	0.777
128	spend_monei	6		✓	0.00338	0	0.0374
128	spend_monei	6		✗	0.0378	0	0.921
129	privat_sector	76		✓	0.00876	0	0.294
129	privat_sector	76		✗	0.00318	0	0.694
130	put_peopl	104		✓	0.695	0	0.106
130	put_peopl	104		✗	0.00657	0	0.192
131	middl_class	13		✓	0.0834	0.000796	0.0283
131	middl_class	13		✗	0.642	0	0.245
132	senat_campaign	18		✓	0.149	0.00199	0.0191
132	senat_campaign	18		✗	0.664	0.000796	0.165
133	american_peopl	38		✓	0.32	0	0.00159
133	american_peopl	38		✗	0.67	0	0.00816
134	ordinari_peopl	6		✓	0.0392	0.000199	0.000597
134	ordinari_peopl	6		✗	0.958	0	0.00239
135	peopl_start	121		✓	0.479	0	0.000597
135	peopl_start	121		✗	0.52	0	0.000199
136	singl_dai	84		✓	0.349	0	0.0107
136	singl_dai	84		✗	0.64	0	0.000199
137	phone_call	121		✓	0.48	0	0
137	phone_call	121		✗	0.52	0	0
138	middl_class	17		✓	0.0695	0	0.0133
138	middl_class	17		✗	0.917	0	0
139	god_bless	26		✓	0.127	0	0
139	god_bless	26		✗	0.873	0	0
140	unit_state	7		✓	0.038	0	0.00836
140	unit_state	7		✗	0.954	0	0
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	6

Barack Obama

Cue-lag representation