Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	georg_bush	26		✓	0.00239	0	0.998
1	georg_bush	26		✗	0	0	0
2	wall_street	54		✓	0.00139	0	0.149
2	wall_street	54		✗	0	0	0.85
3	hard_work	3		✓	0.00119	0	0.00478
3	hard_work	3		✗	0.00119	0	0.993
4	main_street	6		✓	0.000597	0	0.00697
4	main_street	6		✗	0.00219	0	0.99
5	year_ago	140		✓	0.0384	0	0.317
5	year_ago	140		✗	0.000995	0	0.644
6	state_capitol	8		✓	0.000796	0	0.0169
6	state_capitol	8		✗	0.0362	0	0.946
7	common_sens	90		✓	0.0251	0	0.085
7	common_sens	90		✗	0.00995	0	0.88
8	american_peopl	25		✓	0.0195	0	0.0219
8	american_peopl	25		✗	0.0271	0	0.932
9	work_hard	9		✓	0.00896	0	0.0157
9	work_hard	9		✗	0.041	0	0.934
10	futur_gener	4		✓	0.00159	0	0.00935
10	futur_gener	4		✗	0.0416	0	0.947
11	full_forc	30		✓	0	0	0.0585
11	full_forc	30		✗	0	0	0.941
12	statu_quo	3		✓	0.000995	0	0.00338
12	statu_quo	3		✗	0	0	0.996
13	american_peopl	23		✓	0.00279	0	0.0157
13	american_peopl	23		✗	0.000398	0	0.981
14	sit_back	37		✓	0	0	0.03
14	sit_back	37		✗	0.000199	0	0.97
15	econom_crisi	36		✓	0.00139	0	0.972
15	econom_crisi	36		✗	0	0	0.0267
16	great_depress	3		✓	0	0	0.0199
16	great_depress	3		✗	0.000199	0	0.98
17	__NUM___worker	1		✓	0	0	0.00338
17	__NUM___worker	1		✗	0	0	0.997
18	big_corpor	80		✓	0.000398	0	0.972
18	big_corpor	80		✗	0	0	0.0277
19	wall_street	29		✓	0.000995	0	0.0671
19	wall_street	29		✗	0	0	0.932
20	unit_state	37		✓	0.00239	0	0.0999
20	unit_state	37		✗	0	0	0.898
21	senat_mccain	3		✓	0	0	0.00796
21	senat_mccain	3		✗	0	0	0.992
22	georg_bush	24		✓	0	0	0.0221
22	georg_bush	24		✗	0	0	0.978
23	mccain_campaign	6		✓	0	0	0.00498
23	mccain_campaign	6		✗	0	0	0.995
24	global_warm	17		✓	0.0808	0.00239	0.178
24	global_warm	17		✗	0	0	0.739
25	make_sens	18		✓	0.00776	0.000199	0.233
25	make_sens	18		✗	0.00836	0	0.751
26	senat_mccain	14		✓	0.000398	0.000995	0.0545
26	senat_mccain	14		✗	0.00119	0	0.943
27	john_mccain	36		✓	0	0	0.0396
27	john_mccain	36		✗	0	0	0.96
28	bush_tax_cut	14		✓	0	0	0.0149
28	bush_tax_cut	14		✗	0	0	0.985
29	senat_mccain	46		✓	0.000199	0	0.0376
29	senat_mccain	46		✗	0	0	0.962
30	american_peopl	9		✓	0.000199	0	0.00677
30	american_peopl	9		✗	0	0	0.993
31	georg_bush	9		✓	0	0	0.00478
31	georg_bush	9		✗	0	0	0.995
32	senat_mccain	7		✓	0	0	0.00478
32	senat_mccain	7		✗	0	0	0.995
33	john_mccain	49		✓	0.000199	0.000398	0.0338
33	john_mccain	49		✗	0	0	0.966
34	tax_cut	6		✓	0	0.000199	0.0207
34	tax_cut	6		✗	0	0.000199	0.979
35	fortun___NUM__	4		✓	0	0.000398	0.00537
35	fortun___NUM__	4		✗	0	0	0.994
36	__MONEY___billion	10		✓	0	0.000199	0.0185
36	__MONEY___billion	10		✗	0	0	0.981
37	oil_compani	10		✓	0.000199	0	0.0167
37	oil_compani	10		✗	0	0	0.983
38	__MONEY___billion	2		✓	0.000199	0.000199	0.00637
38	__MONEY___billion	2		✗	0	0	0.993
39	wall_street_bank	4		✓	0	0	0.0527
39	wall_street_bank	4		✗	0	0	0.947
40	tax_plan	17		✓	0	0	0.222
40	tax_plan	17		✗	0	0	0.778
41	__NUM___million	11		✓	0.000199	0.000199	0.0328
41	__NUM___million	11		✗	0	0	0.967
42	class_american	3		✓	0	0	0.00736
42	class_american	3		✗	0	0	0.993
43	john_mccain	4		✓	0	0	0.00358
43	john_mccain	4		✗	0	0	0.996
44	georg_bush	5		✓	0	0	0.00199
44	georg_bush	5		✗	0	0	0.998
45	senat_mccain	5		✓	0	0	0.00338
45	senat_mccain	5		✗	0	0	0.997
46	small_thing	64		✓	0.00358	0	0.043
46	small_thing	64		✗	0	0	0.953
47	presidenti_candid	58		✓	0.654	0.00697	0.0456
47	presidenti_candid	58		✗	0.00239	0	0.291
48	year_ago	45		✓	0.133	0	0.0561
48	year_ago	45		✗	0.535	0	0.276
49	john_mccain	5		✓	0.00955	0	0.00418
49	john_mccain	5		✗	0.662	0	0.324
50	high_road	3		✓	0.0299	0.000398	0.00159
50	high_road	3		✗	0.669	0	0.299
51	white_hous	6		✓	0.033	0	0.00358
51	white_hous	6		✗	0.695	0	0.268
52	big_issu	27		✓	0.25	0.000199	0.00159
52	big_issu	27		✗	0.703	0	0.046
53	beat_back	59		✓	0.102	0	0.000398
53	beat_back	59		✗	0.898	0	0
54	american_peopl	51		✓	0.0392	0	0.00119
54	american_peopl	51		✗	0.96	0	0
55	red_state	15		✓	0.00816	0	0
55	red_state	15		✗	0.992	0	0
56	blue_state	2		✓	0.00378	0	0
56	blue_state	2		✗	0.996	0	0
57	unit_state	5		✓	0.0295	0	0.0748
57	unit_state	5		✗	0.896	0	0
58	difficult_time	58		✓	0.0109	0.000597	0.806
58	difficult_time	58		✗	0.123	0	0.0591
59	bigger_govern	115		✓	0	0	0.236
59	bigger_govern	115		✗	0	0	0.764
60	smaller_govern	2		✓	0	0	0.00199
60	smaller_govern	2		✗	0	0	0.998
61	financi_system	32		✓	0	0	0.0243
61	financi_system	32		✗	0	0	0.976
62	congress_pass	20		✓	0.00358	0.000199	0.0163
62	congress_pass	20		✗	0	0	0.98
63	wall_street	32		✓	0.00358	0	0.225
63	wall_street	32		✗	0.000597	0	0.77
64	tax_cut	21		✓	0.00279	0.0818	0.724
64	tax_cut	21		✗	0.000398	0	0.191
65	tax_break	33		✓	0.000995	0.0187	0.132
65	tax_break	33		✗	0.000597	0.0663	0.781
66	incom_tax	22		✓	0	0.896	0.00259
66	incom_tax	22		✗	0	0.0836	0.0183
67	work_parent	10		✓	0.000398	0.0287	0
67	work_parent	10		✗	0	0.971	0
68	tax_rate	28		✓	0	0.0179	0.000398
68	tax_rate	28		✗	0	0.982	0
69	senat_mccain	10		✓	0	0.00537	0.000597
69	senat_mccain	10		✗	0	0.994	0.000398
70	tax_increas	19		✓	0	0.0145	0.000199
70	tax_increas	19		✗	0	0.985	0
71	incom_tax	8		✓	0	0.00438	0
71	incom_tax	8		✗	0	0.996	0
72	payrol_tax	4		✓	0	0.00219	0
72	payrol_tax	4		✗	0	0.998	0
73	capit_gain	4		✓	0	0.00299	0
73	capit_gain	4		✗	0	0.997	0
74	gain_tax	0		✓	0	0.000199	0
74	gain_tax	0		✗	0	1	0
75	rais_tax	13		✓	0	0.00776	0.0671
75	rais_tax	13		✗	0	0.925	0
76	bring_back	41		✓	0.00378	0	0.938
76	bring_back	41		✗	0	0.000995	0.0577
77	john_mccain	14		✓	0	0	0.0209
77	john_mccain	14		✗	0	0	0.979
78	tax_break	5		✓	0	0	0.00537
78	tax_break	5		✗	0	0	0.995
79	american_job	5		✓	0	0	0.00438
79	american_job	5		✗	0	0	0.996
80	job_oversea	0		✓	0	0	0.000597
80	job_oversea	0		✗	0	0	0.999
81	trade_agreement	4		✓	0	0	0.00239
81	trade_agreement	4		✗	0	0	0.998
82	american_busi	13		✓	0.0312	0	0.0253
82	american_busi	13		✗	0	0	0.943
83	tax_credit	3		✓	0.0444	0.000199	0.00836
83	tax_credit	3		✗	0.0304	0	0.917
84	unit_state	10		✓	0.0991	0.00299	0.0442
84	unit_state	10		✗	0.0683	0	0.785
85	capit_gain	5		✓	0	0.996	0
85	capit_gain	5		✗	0	0.00438	0
86	gain_tax	0		✓	0	0.000796	0
86	gain_tax	0		✗	0	0.999	0
87	small_busi	2		✓	0	0.00139	0.00279
87	small_busi	2		✗	0	0.996	0
88	job_creation	11		✓	0	0.00577	0.0541
88	job_creation	11		✗	0	0.937	0.00338
89	__MONEY___billion	38		✓	0.000597	0.000597	0.93
89	__MONEY___billion	38		✗	0	0.0163	0.0523
90	renew_sourc	4		✓	0	0	0.0191
90	renew_sourc	4		✗	0	0.000199	0.981
91	solar_panel	26		✓	0	0	0.00935
91	solar_panel	26		✗	0	0	0.991
92	wind_turbin	2		✓	0	0	0.000597
92	wind_turbin	2		✗	0	0	0.999
93	middl_east	19		✓	0	0	0.00438
93	middl_east	19		✗	0	0	0.996
94	ten_year	2		✓	0.0111	0	0.00139
94	ten_year	2		✗	0	0	0.987
95	health_care	19		✓	0.984	0	0.00478
95	health_care	19		✗	0.0109	0	0.000199
96	health_care_system	12		✓	0.0145	0	0
96	health_care_system	12		✗	0.985	0	0
97	health_insur	13		✓	0.00378	0	0.000199
97	health_insur	13		✗	0.996	0	0
98	same_kind	29		✓	0.00736	0	0
98	same_kind	29		✗	0.993	0	0
99	health_insur	2		✓	0.000398	0	0
99	health_insur	2		✗	1	0	0
100	insur_compani	25		✓	0.00537	0	0.0121
100	insur_compani	25		✗	0.982	0	0
101	earli_childhood	72		✓	0.999	0	0
101	earli_childhood	72		✗	0.00139	0	0
102	childhood_educ	0		✓	0.000398	0	0
102	childhood_educ	0		✗	1	0	0
103	higher_standard	23		✓	0.00517	0	0
103	higher_standard	23		✗	0.995	0	0
104	spend___MONEY___billion	87		✓	0.00219	0	0.998
104	spend___MONEY___billion	87		✗	0.000199	0	0
105	iraqi_govern	8		✓	0	0	0.00716
105	iraqi_govern	8		✗	0	0	0.993
106	bin_laden	31		✓	0	0	0.00955
106	bin_laden	31		✗	0	0	0.99
107	al_qaeda	3		✓	0	0	0.000597
107	al_qaeda	3		✗	0	0	0.999
108	qaeda_terrorist	0		✓	0	0	0
108	qaeda_terrorist	0		✗	0	0	1
109	made_clear	23		✓	0	0	0.00199
109	made_clear	23		✗	0	0	0.998
110	ground_troop	6		✓	0.000199	0	0.00139
110	ground_troop	6		✗	0	0	0.998
111	__NUM___centuri	36		✓	0.0444	0	0.136
111	__NUM___centuri	36		✗	0	0	0.82
112	econom_crisi	51		✓	0.00856	0	0.869
112	econom_crisi	51		✗	0.00119	0	0.121
113	feder_budget	37		✓	0.00637	0	0.077
113	feder_budget	37		✗	0.00398	0	0.913
114	month_ago	39		✓	0.362	0	0.0225
114	month_ago	39		✗	0.0101	0	0.606
115	trade_deficit	50		✓	0.625	0.000995	0.00239
115	trade_deficit	50		✗	0.348	0	0.0237
116	work_hard	31		✓	0.152	0	0.00139
116	work_hard	31		✗	0.847	0	0
117	fellow_citizen	18		✓	0.033	0	0
117	fellow_citizen	18		✗	0.967	0	0
118	common_purpos	14		✓	0.0111	0	0
118	common_purpos	14		✗	0.989	0	0
119	energi_independ	13		✓	0.00617	0	0.00119
119	energi_independ	13		✗	0.993	0	0
120	nativ_american	87		✓	0.313	0	0.000796
120	nativ_american	87		✗	0.686	0	0
121	unit_state	148		✓	0.611	0.000199	0.117
121	unit_state	148		✗	0.271	0	0.000199
122	young_peopl	135		✓	0.573	0	0.00438
122	young_peopl	135		✗	0.422	0	0.000796
123	long_time	23		✓	0.0571	0	0.00318
123	long_time	23		✗	0.939	0	0.000995
124	cut_back	10		✓	0.0183	0	0.00498
124	cut_back	10		✗	0.974	0	0.00299
125	town_hall	52		✓	0.0408	0	0
125	town_hall	52		✗	0.959	0	0.000199
126	insur_compani	76		✓	0.033	0	0.0103
126	insur_compani	76		✗	0.957	0	0
127	fight_back	63		✓	0.101	0.000398	0.0181
127	fight_back	63		✗	0.877	0	0.00398
128	god_bless	339		✓	0.988	0	0
128	god_bless	339		✗	0.0123	0	0
129	god_bless_america	5		✓	0.0183	0	0
129	god_bless_america	5		✗	0.982	0	0
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	2

Barack Obama

Cue-lag representation