Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	democrat_parti	23		✓	1	0.000199	0.000199
1	democrat_parti	23		✗	0	0	0
2	peopl_stand	59		✓	0.219	0.000796	0.000995
2	peopl_stand	59		✗	0.779	0	0
3	state_senat	138		✓	0.408	0.00597	0.0633
3	state_senat	138		✗	0.522	0	0.000597
4	social_secur	134		✓	0.308	0.302	0
4	social_secur	134		✗	0.384	0.00498	0.000597
5	__NUM___year_ago	200		✓	0.663	0.0227	0.000398
5	__NUM___year_ago	200		✗	0.283	0.0306	0
6	presid_roosevelt	5		✓	0.0187	0.0127	0.000398
6	presid_roosevelt	5		✗	0.915	0.0531	0
7	social_secur	3		✓	0.0165	0.00438	0
7	social_secur	3		✗	0.914	0.0651	0
8	presid_johnson	38		✓	0.198	0.000199	0
8	presid_johnson	38		✗	0.802	0	0
9	__NUM___year	1		✓	0.00736	0	0.000199
9	__NUM___year	1		✗	0.992	0.000199	0
10	health_problem	31		✓	0.114	0.000796	0.00736
10	health_problem	31		✗	0.878	0	0
11	presid_johnson	69		✓	0.397	0.0111	0.000796
11	presid_johnson	69		✗	0.59	0	0.000597
12	medicar_bill	8		✓	0.0352	0.0334	0.0127
12	medicar_bill	8		✗	0.906	0.0107	0.00139
13	social_secur	120		✓	0.286	0.353	0.000597
13	social_secur	120		✗	0.326	0.0342	0.000199
14	long_term	47		✓	0.173	0.0328	0.00199
14	long_term	47		✗	0.494	0.298	0
15	averag_cost	28		✓	0.157	0.00856	0.000199
15	averag_cost	28		✗	0.624	0.211	0
16	nurs_home	7		✓	0.00657	0.0191	0
16	nurs_home	7		✗	0.757	0.217	0
17	__NUM___dollar	5		✓	0.00458	0.0426	0
17	__NUM___dollar	5		✗	0.718	0.235	0
18	past_year	18		✓	0.0165	0.041	0.00259
18	past_year	18		✗	0.669	0.271	0
19	health_care	15		✓	0.0183	0.0474	0
19	health_care	15		✗	0.627	0.307	0
20	nation_commit	26		✓	0.00498	0.13	0.00199
20	nation_commit	26		✗	0.517	0.346	0
21	social_secur	3		✓	0.00955	0.475	0
21	social_secur	3		✗	0.0422	0.473	0
22	tax_cut	21		✓	0	0.0605	0
22	tax_cut	21		✗	0.0131	0.926	0
23	prescript_drug	14		✓	0.0603	0.0125	0.000796
23	prescript_drug	14		✗	0.0137	0.913	0
24	white_hous	151		✓	0.961	0.00159	0.00478
24	white_hous	151		✗	0.0267	0.00597	0
25	work_hard	12		✓	0.0595	0.000995	0
25	work_hard	12		✗	0.936	0.00299	0.000398
26	la_vega	15		✓	0.0603	0	0
26	la_vega	15		✗	0.938	0.00139	0
27	dai_ago	2		✓	0.0105	0	0
27	dai_ago	2		✗	0.989	0.000796	0
28	shake_hand	13		✓	0.0553	0.00517	0.000199
28	shake_hand	13		✗	0.939	0.000796	0
29	long_term	132		✓	0.158	0.605	0.00816
29	long_term	132		✗	0.224	0.00517	0
30	insur_premium	2		✓	0.00537	0.00517	0.000199
30	insur_premium	2		✗	0.374	0.607	0.00796
31	insur_compani	8		✓	0.0175	0.0412	0
31	insur_compani	8		✗	0.335	0.606	0.000199
32	fine_print	14		✓	0.0139	0.105	0.000199
32	fine_print	14		✗	0.243	0.637	0
33	unit_state	106		✓	0.864	0.000796	0.0318
33	unit_state	106		✗	0.0943	0.00896	0
34	white_hous	7		✓	0.0589	0	0.000597
34	white_hous	7		✗	0.925	0.000597	0.0147
35	fellow_american	9		✓	0.0537	0	0
35	fellow_american	9		✗	0.942	0.000199	0.00438
36	franklin_roosevelt	20		✓	0.0768	0.000199	0.000398
36	franklin_roosevelt	20		✗	0.92	0	0.00299
37	harri_truman	2		✓	0.00995	0	0.000199
37	harri_truman	2		✗	0.987	0	0.00259
38	lyndon_johnson	2		✓	0.0111	0	0.000199
38	lyndon_johnson	2		✗	0.986	0	0.00219
39	book_call	55		✓	0.202	0.000199	0.0137
39	book_call	55		✗	0.783	0	0.000796
40	import_work	55		✓	0.209	0.00617	0
40	import_work	55		✗	0.784	0	0.000597
41	long_term	29		✓	0.088	0.209	0.00318
41	long_term	29		✗	0.694	0.00597	0
42	work_hard	18		✓	0.0671	0.0211	0.000199
42	work_hard	18		✗	0.705	0.206	0.000597
43	long_term	57		✓	0.151	0.08	0.00318
43	long_term	57		✗	0.557	0.209	0
44	recent_year	6		✓	0.0237	0.00338	0.000597
44	recent_year	6		✗	0.689	0.28	0.00318
45	long_term	22		✓	0.153	0.00458	0.00458
45	long_term	22		✗	0.65	0.185	0.00299
46	insur_polici	2		✓	0.0941	0.000199	0.00159
46	insur_polici	2		✗	0.792	0.106	0.00637
47	phone_call	12		✓	0.0973	0.00139	0.000398
47	phone_call	12		✗	0.811	0.0874	0.00219
48	includ___NUM__	41		✓	0.133	0.0677	0.000199
48	includ___NUM__	41		✗	0.715	0.084	0
49	long_term	18		✓	0.0697	0.0249	0.00418
49	long_term	18		✗	0.756	0.145	0
50	de_moin	79		✓	0.429	0.000796	0.00119
50	de_moin	79		✗	0.562	0.00697	0.000199
51	govern_account_offic	37		✓	0.119	0.0615	0.0131
51	govern_account_offic	37		✗	0.798	0.00716	0.000796
52	long_term	20		✓	0.0617	0.0225	0.000597
52	long_term	20		✗	0.847	0.0645	0.00378
53	care_polici	1		✓	0.00577	0.000398	0
53	care_polici	1		✗	0.905	0.0852	0.00358
54	insur_compani	66		✓	0.168	0.000597	0
54	insur_compani	66		✗	0.826	0.00537	0
55	feder_tax	4		✓	0.00816	0	0.000199
55	feder_tax	4		✗	0.986	0.00517	0
56	feder_employe	12		✓	0.0263	0	0
56	feder_employe	12		✗	0.974	0	0
57	health_benefit	2		✓	0.00338	0	0
57	health_benefit	2		✗	0.997	0	0
58	consum_protect	16		✓	0.0227	0.000199	0.000398
58	consum_protect	16		✗	0.977	0	0
59	feder_employe	17		✓	0.0233	0	0
59	feder_employe	17		✗	0.977	0	0
60	health_benefit	2		✓	0.00378	0	0
60	health_benefit	2		✗	0.996	0	0
61	__NUM___million	3		✓	0.00398	0.000398	0
61	__NUM___million	3		✗	0.996	0	0
62	feder_employe	1		✓	0.00219	0	0
62	feder_employe	1		✗	0.997	0.000398	0
63	averag_rate	49		✓	0.0412	0.123	0.0109
63	averag_rate	49		✗	0.825	0.000398	0
64	past___NUM___year	4		✓	0.00577	0.0101	0.000398
64	past___NUM___year	4		✗	0.852	0.123	0.00876
65	fine_print	49		✓	0.0304	0.307	0.000199
65	fine_print	49		✗	0.536	0.126	0.000199
66	nurs_home	64		✓	0.14	0.0235	0.000199
66	nurs_home	64		✗	0.531	0.305	0
67	__NUM___dollar	4		✓	0.00279	0.0281	0.000796
67	__NUM___dollar	4		✗	0.641	0.327	0.000199
68	__NUM___year	12		✓	0.077	0.0183	0.0187
68	__NUM___year	12		✗	0.553	0.333	0.000597
69	larger_share	76		✓	0.0328	0.462	0.0233
69	larger_share	76		✗	0.157	0.318	0.00677
70	long_term	27		✓	0.00438	0.188	0.000796
70	long_term	27		✗	0.0412	0.762	0.00378
71	low_incom	17		✓	0	0.0525	0
71	low_incom	17		✗	0.0131	0.934	0
72	incom_american	0		✓	0	0.000796	0
72	incom_american	0		✗	0.0125	0.987	0
73	fine_print	44		✓	0.00975	0.0498	0
73	fine_print	44		✗	0.00378	0.937	0
74	insur_compani	4		✓	0.0251	0.00358	0.000199
74	insur_compani	4		✗	0.0131	0.958	0
75	long_term	61		✓	0.115	0.0529	0.00179
75	long_term	61		✗	0.0263	0.804	0
76	singl_dai	36		✓	0.172	0.0245	0.000199
76	singl_dai	36		✗	0.119	0.685	0
77	__NUM___year	18		✓	0.0316	0.0299	0.00557
77	__NUM___year	18		✗	0.247	0.686	0.000199
78	background_check	22		✓	0.000199	0.295	0
78	background_check	22		✗	0.000398	0.704	0
79	long_term	4		✓	0	0.00458	0
79	long_term	4		✗	0	0.995	0
80	care_worker	1		✓	0	0.00239	0
80	care_worker	1		✗	0	0.998	0
81	health_care	4		✓	0.000597	0.00478	0
81	health_care	4		✗	0	0.995	0
82	care_worker	0		✓	0	0.000597	0
82	care_worker	0		✗	0.000597	0.999	0
83	long_term	47		✓	0.0123	0.045	0.000199
83	long_term	47		✗	0	0.942	0
84	health_care	5		✓	0.00239	0.00478	0
84	health_care	5		✗	0.0121	0.981	0
85	mortgag_market	59		✓	0	0.0673	0.000199
85	mortgag_market	59		✗	0	0.933	0
86	home_equiti	10		✓	0.000199	0.00935	0.000597
86	home_equiti	10		✗	0	0.99	0
87	low_interest	4		✓	0.00318	0.00657	0.00179
87	low_interest	4		✗	0.000398	0.987	0.000597
88	home_equiti	37		✓	0.000597	0.0344	0.000199
88	home_equiti	37		✗	0.000398	0.964	0.000796
89	ident_theft	76		✓	0.0468	0.0609	0.166
89	ident_theft	76		✗	0	0.726	0.000597
90	peopl_call	65		✓	0.079	0.0878	0.0221
90	peopl_call	65		✗	0.0302	0.683	0.0983
91	year_ago	7		✓	0.0691	0.00677	0.00617
91	year_ago	7		✗	0.103	0.71	0.105
92	__NUM___year_ago	67		✓	0.5	0.0314	0.00458
92	__NUM___year_ago	67		✗	0.123	0.328	0.0127
93	propos_legisl	6		✓	0.00119	0.535	0.00338
93	propos_legisl	6		✗	0.0931	0.359	0.00756
94	foreign_countri	33		✓	0.000398	0.134	0.000398
94	foreign_countri	33		✗	0.000796	0.864	0.000796
95	social_secur	42		✓	0.00119	0.0384	0
95	social_secur	42		✗	0	0.96	0
96	tax_cut	50		✓	0	0.0384	0
96	tax_cut	50		✗	0	0.962	0
97	iraq_war	7		✓	0	0.00577	0.000398
97	iraq_war	7		✗	0	0.994	0
98	credit_card	18		✓	0	0.0167	0
98	credit_card	18		✗	0	0.983	0
99	tax_cut	12		✓	0	0.0105	0
99	tax_cut	12		✗	0	0.989	0
100	iraq_war	6		✓	0	0.00537	0.000199
100	iraq_war	6		✗	0	0.994	0
101	social_secur	8		✓	0	0.00896	0
101	social_secur	8		✗	0	0.991	0
102	trust_fund	1		✓	0	0.00219	0
102	trust_fund	1		✗	0	0.998	0
103	foreign_countri	5		✓	0	0.00537	0
103	foreign_countri	5		✗	0	0.995	0
104	fiscal_respons	10		✓	0	0.00896	0
104	fiscal_respons	10		✗	0	0.991	0
105	social_secur	5		✓	0	0.00259	0
105	social_secur	5		✗	0	0.997	0
106	trust_fund	1		✓	0	0.00239	0
106	trust_fund	1		✗	0	0.998	0
107	left_offic	4		✓	0	0.00358	0
107	left_offic	4		✗	0	0.996	0
108	balanc_budget	7		✓	0	0.00637	0
108	balanc_budget	7		✗	0	0.994	0
109	social_secur	6		✓	0	0.00577	0
109	social_secur	6		✗	0	0.994	0
110	trust_fund	1		✓	0	0.00119	0
110	trust_fund	1		✗	0	0.999	0
111	half_year	11		✓	0.000597	0.00995	0
111	half_year	11		✗	0	0.989	0
112	georg_bush	3		✓	0	0.00418	0
112	georg_bush	3		✗	0.000597	0.995	0
113	fiscal_polici	2		✓	0	0.00358	0
113	fiscal_polici	2		✗	0	0.996	0
114	lost___NUM__	3		✓	0	0.00418	0
114	lost___NUM__	3		✗	0	0.996	0
115	__NUM___year	0		✓	0.000398	0.000796	0
115	__NUM___year	0		✗	0	0.999	0
116	fiscal_respons	13		✓	0.000597	0.0119	0
116	fiscal_respons	13		✗	0	0.987	0
117	social_secur	9		✓	0.00219	0.00836	0
117	social_secur	9		✗	0.000398	0.989	0
118	trust_fund	1		✓	0.00159	0.00119	0
118	trust_fund	1		✗	0.00279	0.994	0
119	prescript_drug	16		✓	0.947	0.000398	0
119	prescript_drug	16		✗	0.00776	0.0446	0
120	drug_benefit	0		✓	0.0103	0	0
120	drug_benefit	0		✗	0.955	0.0346	0
121	pai___NUM__	14		✓	0.00119	0.00159	0
121	pai___NUM__	14		✗	0.963	0.034	0
122	drug_compani	51		✓	0.0328	0	0
122	drug_compani	51		✗	0.963	0.00438	0
123	lower_price	34		✓	0.00716	0	0
123	lower_price	34		✗	0.993	0	0
124	drug_compani	3		✓	0.000199	0	0
124	drug_compani	3		✗	1	0	0
125	bush_administr	5		✓	0	0	0
125	bush_administr	5		✗	1	0	0
126	lower_price	20		✓	0.000995	0	0
126	lower_price	20		✗	0.999	0	0
127	drug_compani	15		✓	0.000199	0	0
127	drug_compani	15		✗	1	0	0
128	lower_price	9		✓	0.000597	0	0
128	lower_price	9		✗	0.999	0	0
129	prescript_drug	97		✓	0.00876	0	0
129	prescript_drug	97		✗	0.991	0	0
130	drug_benefit	0		✓	0.000199	0	0
130	drug_benefit	0		✗	1	0	0
131	__NUM___dollar	8		✓	0.0153	0.0241	0.000597
131	__NUM___dollar	8		✗	0.96	0	0
132	care_deepli	40		✓	0.134	0	0.000199
132	care_deepli	40		✗	0.866	0	0
133	grow_number	16		✓	0.0191	0	0.000995
133	grow_number	16		✗	0.98	0	0
134	rais_children	5		✓	0.00975	0	0.00119
134	rais_children	5		✗	0.988	0	0.000995
135	half_million	22		✓	0.0661	0.000597	0.0424
135	half_million	22		✗	0.889	0	0.00239
136	million_american	0		✓	0.00597	0.00139	0.000995
136	million_american	0		✗	0.946	0.000597	0.0446
137	american_children	0		✓	0.00279	0	0.00179
137	american_children	0		✗	0.948	0.00199	0.0456
138	health_care	65		✓	0.815	0.00199	0
138	health_care	65		✗	0.183	0	0
139	small_children	5		✓	0.0281	0.000199	0.000199
139	small_children	5		✗	0.971	0.000199	0
140	year_ago	23		✓	0.0814	0.00498	0.000597
140	year_ago	23		✗	0.913	0.000199	0.000199
141	rais_children	9		✓	0.0338	0.000796	0
141	rais_children	9		✗	0.961	0.00438	0
142	york_citi	39		✓	0.114	0	0
142	york_citi	39		✗	0.882	0.00438	0
143	rais_children	3		✓	0.0129	0	0.000199
143	rais_children	3		✗	0.982	0.00438	0
144	work_full	105		✓	0.458	0	0
144	work_full	105		✗	0.542	0	0
145	full_time	0		✓	0.000597	0	0
145	full_time	0		✗	0.999	0	0
146	__NUM___billion	15		✓	0.599	0.24	0.00299
146	__NUM___billion	15		✗	0.158	0	0
147	billion_dollar	0		✓	0.000597	0.00219	0
147	billion_dollar	0		✗	0.754	0.24	0.00299
148	pass_legisl	68		✓	0.132	0.0249	0.0209
148	pass_legisl	68		✗	0.62	0.2	0.00259
149	tax_credit	30		✓	0.0585	0.149	0.00139
149	tax_credit	30		✗	0.576	0.214	0.00179
150	tax_deduct	6		✓	0.0193	0.0492	0.00219
150	tax_deduct	6		✗	0.566	0.361	0.00279
151	long_term	2		✓	0.0273	0.00697	0.00597
151	long_term	2		✗	0.551	0.404	0.00498
152	__NUM___year	60		✓	0.435	0.00557	0.326
152	__NUM___year	60		✗	0.18	0.0454	0.00836
153	father_di	12		✓	0.0418	0.00299	0.0659
153	father_di	12		✗	0.52	0.0408	0.328
154	longer_live	51		✓	0.0995	0.0396	0.0714
154	longer_live	51		✗	0.418	0.0342	0.337
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	19

Hillary Clinton

Cue-lag representation