Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	great_deal	158		✓	0.896	0.0647	0.0396
1	great_deal	158		✗	0	0	0
2	mississippi_river	35		✓	0.089	0.071	0.128
2	mississippi_river	35		✗	0.617	0.0575	0.0376
3	half_year	79		✓	0.2	0.129	0.123
3	half_year	79		✗	0.337	0.1	0.111
4	pai_attent	67		✓	0.427	0.00139	0.0513
4	pai_attent	67		✗	0.378	0.00915	0.133
5	__NUM___centuri	61		✓	0.191	0.00836	0.0635
5	__NUM___centuri	61		✗	0.592	0.00279	0.142
6	feder_depart	30		✓	0.0862	0.00657	0.0828
6	feder_depart	30		✗	0.622	0.00697	0.196
7	__NUM___year	29		✓	0.133	0.000796	0.0151
7	__NUM___year	29		✗	0.608	0.00299	0.241
8	york_citi	43		✓	0.135	0.00338	0.0306
8	york_citi	43		✗	0.596	0.000995	0.234
9	water_system	22		✓	0.0663	0.00159	0.0157
9	water_system	22		✗	0.653	0.00199	0.261
10	long_time	6		✓	0.312	0.00418	0.00418
10	long_time	6		✗	0.599	0.000995	0.0798
11	natur_disast	190		✓	0.583	0.000597	0.0107
11	natur_disast	190		✗	0.388	0	0.0169
12	fellow_citizen	17		✓	0.0708	0.000199	0.000796
12	fellow_citizen	17		✗	0.907	0.000398	0.0203
13	homeland_secur	126		✓	0.387	0.000199	0.000995
13	homeland_secur	126		✗	0.607	0	0.00458
14	mass_transit	22		✓	0.0201	0	0
14	mass_transit	22		✗	0.98	0	0
15	transit_system	0		✓	0	0	0
15	transit_system	0		✗	1	0	0
16	homeland_secur	38		✓	0.00836	0.000398	0.0277
16	homeland_secur	38		✗	0.964	0	0
17	__MONEY___billion	30		✓	0.00219	0.00856	0.226
17	__MONEY___billion	30		✗	0.737	0.000199	0.0267
18	wast_time	4		✓	0.00219	0.00159	0.162
18	wast_time	4		✗	0.578	0.00478	0.251
19	intern_trade	42		✓	0.0201	0.00418	0.148
19	intern_trade	42		✗	0.428	0.00199	0.397
20	worker_pai	16		✓	0.0115	0.000398	0.00716
20	worker_pai	16		✗	0.439	0.00358	0.539
21	american_societi	142		✓	0.0372	0.00119	0.316
21	american_societi	142		✗	0.129	0.000597	0.516
22	drink_water	17		✓	0.00597	0	0.0185
22	drink_water	17		✗	0.153	0	0.822
23	water_system	0		✓	0.00259	0.000199	0
23	water_system	0		✗	0.159	0	0.838
24	sit_back	77		✓	0.033	0.0336	0.0376
24	sit_back	77		✗	0.088	0.000199	0.808
25	__NUM___year	106		✓	0.142	0.000398	0.0933
25	__NUM___year	106		✗	0.0559	0.000398	0.708
26	state_legislatur	30		✓	0.0233	0.000398	0.0334
26	state_legislatur	30		✗	0.151	0	0.791
27	__NUM___mile	4		✓	0.00537	0.000995	0.00736
27	__NUM___mile	4		✗	0.163	0.000398	0.822
28	york_citi	4		✓	0.00796	0.00597	0.00458
28	york_citi	4		✗	0.152	0.00119	0.828
29	fifteen_year	95		✓	0.0275	0.0603	0.00677
29	fifteen_year	95		✗	0.0834	0.00597	0.816
30	york_citi	9		✓	0.0149	0.00119	0.00119
30	york_citi	9		✗	0.107	0.0597	0.816
31	civil_war	21		✓	0.0302	0.00199	0.443
31	civil_war	21		✗	0.0511	0.00975	0.464
32	econom_benefit	87		✓	0.907	0.000199	0.000199
32	econom_benefit	87		✗	0.0527	0	0.0398
33	highwai_system	4		✓	0.00935	0	0
33	highwai_system	4		✗	0.956	0	0.0342
34	global_economi	105		✓	0.0573	0.000199	0.000398
34	global_economi	105		✗	0.942	0	0
35	creat_job	10		✓	0.00219	0	0
35	creat_job	10		✗	0.998	0	0
36	__MONEY___billion	8		✓	0.000199	0	0
36	__MONEY___billion	8		✗	1	0	0
37	__NUM___job	8		✓	0.00119	0	0
37	__NUM___job	8		✗	0.999	0	0
38	commun_leader	39		✓	0.00677	0	0.000398
38	commun_leader	39		✗	0.993	0	0
39	public_transit	131		✓	0.0167	0	0
39	public_transit	131		✗	0.983	0	0
40	transit_system	0		✓	0	0	0
40	transit_system	0		✗	1	0	0
41	foreign_oil	11		✓	0.00219	0	0
41	foreign_oil	11		✗	0.998	0	0
42	carbon_dioxid_emiss	4		✓	0	0	0
42	carbon_dioxid_emiss	4		✗	1	0	0
43	air_pollut	7		✓	0.00259	0	0
43	air_pollut	7		✗	0.997	0	0
44	modern_american	21		✓	0.0993	0.0277	0.00517
44	modern_american	21		✗	0.868	0	0
45	american_progress	0		✓	0.00458	0.00279	0
45	american_progress	0		✗	0.96	0.0275	0.00478
46	sustain_econom	147		✓	0.201	0.135	0.00677
46	sustain_econom	147		✗	0.637	0.0203	0.000199
47	econom_growth	0		✓	0.00438	0.00119	0.000199
47	econom_growth	0		✗	0.834	0.153	0.00657
48	univers_health_care	107		✓	0.412	0	0.000398
48	univers_health_care	107		✗	0.586	0	0.00159
49	energi_secur	18		✓	0.0318	0	0.0462
49	energi_secur	18		✗	0.92	0	0.00199
50	global_warm	6		✓	0.00438	0	0.17
50	global_warm	6		✗	0.778	0	0.0478
51	iraq_war	19		✓	0.00119	0.00677	0.77
51	iraq_war	19		✗	0.00975	0	0.212
52	stem_cell	18		✓	0	0	0.0338
52	stem_cell	18		✗	0	0	0.966
53	cell_research	0		✓	0.000199	0	0.000597
53	cell_research	0		✗	0	0	0.999
54	greatest_gener	45		✓	0.578	0.00119	0.0189
54	greatest_gener	45		✗	0.000597	0	0.401
55	world_war_ii	23		✓	0.205	0	0.00776
55	world_war_ii	23		✗	0.528	0	0.259
56	same_time	12		✓	0.0726	0.00617	0.00537
56	same_time	12		✗	0.709	0	0.206
57	__NUM___centuri	97		✓	0.247	0.00139	0.00279
57	__NUM___centuri	97		✗	0.741	0.000398	0.00776
58	nation_commit	23		✓	0.0249	0.000597	0.000199
58	nation_commit	23		✗	0.969	0.000597	0.00438
59	privat_sector	19		✓	0.00677	0.000199	0
59	privat_sector	19		✗	0.99	0.000796	0.00239
60	environment_degrad	41		✓	0.0203	0.000199	0.000398
60	environment_degrad	41		✗	0.977	0	0.00179
61	critic_infrastructur	57		✓	0.0145	0	0
61	critic_infrastructur	57		✗	0.985	0	0
62	feder_govern	7		✓	0.000597	0	0
62	feder_govern	7		✗	0.999	0	0
63	__MONEY___million	9		✓	0.000995	0	0
63	__MONEY___million	9		✗	0.999	0	0
64	same_time	69		✓	0.00756	0	0
64	same_time	69		✗	0.992	0	0
65	__MONEY___billion	4		✓	0.00119	0	0
65	__MONEY___billion	4		✗	0.999	0	0
66	ten_year	2		✓	0.000199	0	0
66	ten_year	2		✗	1	0	0
67	__NUM___year	144		✓	0.339	0.000597	0.00498
67	__NUM___year	144		✗	0.656	0	0
68	spend_monei	18		✓	0.0374	0	0.000199
68	spend_monei	18		✗	0.961	0	0.00159
69	feder_govern	5		✓	0.00736	0.00139	0
69	feder_govern	5		✗	0.99	0	0.000995
70	feder_budget	124		✓	0.0581	0.00657	0.000199
70	feder_budget	124		✗	0.934	0.000597	0.000398
71	control_cost	105		✓	0.0245	0	0.000199
71	control_cost	105		✗	0.975	0	0
72	nation_academi	48		✓	0.00677	0	0
72	nation_academi	48		✗	0.993	0	0
73	nation_institut	5		✓	0.000995	0	0.000199
73	nation_institut	5		✗	0.999	0	0
74	__NUM___year	80		✓	0.0527	0.00756	0.00279
74	__NUM___year	80		✗	0.937	0	0
75	addit___MONEY__	32		✓	0.00836	0.0243	0.000199
75	addit___MONEY__	32		✗	0.96	0.00716	0
76	__MONEY___billion	0		✓	0.000796	0	0
76	__MONEY___billion	0		✗	0.968	0.0312	0
77	__NUM___million	10		✓	0.00597	0.000398	0
77	__NUM___million	10		✗	0.966	0.0279	0
78	ga_price	27		✓	0.0119	0.000796	0.000199
78	ga_price	27		✗	0.967	0.0199	0
79	feder_fund	30		✓	0.0161	0.000398	0.00239
79	feder_fund	30		✗	0.975	0.00557	0.000199
80	foreign_oil	30		✓	0.0119	0	0
80	foreign_oil	30		✗	0.988	0	0
81	asian_countri	13		✓	0.000796	0	0
81	asian_countri	13		✗	0.999	0	0
82	european_countri	5		✓	0.00119	0	0.000199
82	european_countri	5		✗	0.999	0	0
83	make_progress	3		✓	0.000597	0	0.000199
83	make_progress	3		✗	0.999	0	0.000199
84	move_quickli	21		✓	0.00259	0	0
84	move_quickli	21		✗	0.997	0	0
85	nation_prioriti	10		✓	0.000597	0	0
85	nation_prioriti	10		✗	0.999	0	0
86	transport_system	17		✓	0.00119	0	0
86	transport_system	17		✗	0.999	0	0
87	public_transit	9		✓	0.000995	0	0
87	public_transit	9		✗	0.999	0	0
88	transit_system	0		✓	0	0	0
88	transit_system	0		✗	1	0	0
89	__NUM___billion	7		✓	0	0	0
89	__NUM___billion	7		✗	1	0	0
90	public_transport	4		✓	0.000995	0	0
90	public_transport	4		✗	0.999	0	0
91	incom_american	15		✓	0.00856	0.00637	0
91	incom_american	15		✗	0.985	0	0
92	senior_citizen	4		✓	0.0127	0	0
92	senior_citizen	4		✗	0.987	0.000199	0
93	public_transport	8		✓	0.00199	0	0
93	public_transport	8		✗	0.998	0	0
94	air_pollut	28		✓	0.00219	0	0
94	air_pollut	28		✗	0.998	0	0
95	public_transport	8		✓	0.000597	0	0
95	public_transport	8		✗	0.999	0	0
96	foreign_oil	12		✓	0.00119	0	0
96	foreign_oil	12		✗	0.999	0	0
97	roughli___NUM__	2		✓	0.000398	0	0
97	roughli___NUM__	2		✗	1	0	0
98	carbon_dioxid_emiss	3		✓	0.000199	0	0
98	carbon_dioxid_emiss	3		✗	1	0	0
99	public_transit	22		✓	0.00259	0	0
99	public_transit	22		✗	0.997	0	0
100	feder_fund	35		✓	0.00338	0	0.000199
100	feder_fund	35		✗	0.996	0	0
101	public_transit	2		✓	0.000398	0	0
101	public_transit	2		✗	1	0	0
102	__MONEY___billion	2		✓	0.000199	0	0
102	__MONEY___billion	2		✗	1	0	0
103	__NUM___year	41		✓	0.0269	0.000199	0.000597
103	__NUM___year	41		✗	0.972	0	0
104	sustain_develop	30		✓	0.0103	0	0
104	sustain_develop	30		✗	0.989	0	0.000597
105	local_govern	10		✓	0.00338	0	0
105	local_govern	10		✗	0.997	0	0
106	privat_sector	3		✓	0.000398	0	0
106	privat_sector	3		✗	1	0	0
107	nation_polici	4		✓	0.00179	0	0.000199
107	nation_polici	4		✗	0.998	0	0
108	gross_domest_product	46		✓	0.00597	0	0
108	gross_domest_product	46		✗	0.994	0	0
109	__NUM___unit	11		✓	0.00239	0	0
109	__NUM___unit	11		✗	0.998	0	0
110	unit_state	0		✓	0.000398	0	0
110	unit_state	0		✗	1	0	0
111	__NUM___million	4		✓	0.000597	0.000199	0
111	__NUM___million	4		✗	0.999	0	0
112	homeland_secur	62		✓	0.00876	0	0
112	homeland_secur	62		✗	0.991	0	0
113	feder_agenc	10		✓	0.00219	0	0
113	feder_agenc	10		✗	0.998	0	0
114	nation_econom	10		✓	0.00259	0	0
114	nation_econom	10		✗	0.997	0	0
115	local_govern	13		✓	0.000796	0	0
115	local_govern	13		✗	0.999	0	0
116	__NUM___centuri	12		✓	0.00219	0	0
116	__NUM___centuri	12		✗	0.998	0	0
117	local_govern	7		✓	0.00119	0	0
117	local_govern	7		✗	0.999	0	0
118	feder_govern	5		✓	0.000199	0	0
118	feder_govern	5		✗	1	0	0
119	nation_prioriti	21		✓	0.00279	0	0.00259
119	nation_prioriti	21		✗	0.995	0	0
120	trend_continu	64		✓	0.459	0.116	0.185
120	trend_continu	64		✗	0.237	0	0.00259
121	same_kind	10		✓	0.157	0.0217	0.0117
121	same_kind	10		✗	0.535	0.106	0.168
122	york_citi	10		✓	0.0778	0.00557	0.00378
122	york_citi	10		✗	0.634	0.113	0.166
123	privat_sector	109		✓	0.292	0.0121	0.049
123	privat_sector	109		✗	0.474	0.0251	0.148
124	increas_product	37		✓	0.0852	0.00239	0.0312
124	increas_product	37		✗	0.674	0.0125	0.195
125	san_diego	91		✓	0.168	0.00139	0.0631
125	san_diego	91		✗	0.569	0.000597	0.198
126	electr_power	62		✓	0.0535	0	0.117
126	electr_power	62		✗	0.575	0	0.255
127	power_system	0		✓	0.000597	0	0
127	power_system	0		✗	0.628	0	0.371
128	power_gener	3		✓	0.00677	0.00398	0.00378
128	power_gener	3		✗	0.618	0	0.367
129	roughli___MONEY__	48		✓	0.468	0.356	0
129	roughli___MONEY__	48		✗	0.144	0.00338	0.0287
130	__MONEY___billion	0		✓	0.000398	0.000796	0
130	__MONEY___billion	0		✗	0.612	0.358	0.0285
131	food_industri	19		✓	0.106	0.00657	0.00697
131	food_industri	19		✗	0.567	0.289	0.0249
132	small_busi	52		✓	0.3	0.0418	0.00219
132	small_busi	52		✗	0.411	0.231	0.0131
133	ic_cream	7		✓	0.0352	0.00716	0.0299
133	ic_cream	7		✗	0.662	0.251	0.0149
134	unit_state	76		✓	0.311	0.00617	0.0728
134	unit_state	76		✗	0.524	0.0537	0.0324
135	feder_govern	57		✓	0.151	0.0217	0.0145
135	feder_govern	57		✗	0.703	0.044	0.0653
136	dramat_increas	51		✓	0.0599	0	0.199
136	dramat_increas	51		✗	0.666	0.00159	0.0732
137	__NUM___america	8		✓	0.0215	0	0.00637
137	__NUM___america	8		✗	0.715	0.000199	0.257
138	local_busi	72		✓	0.209	0.00637	0.00537
138	local_busi	72		✗	0.693	0.000199	0.0866
139	global_market	98		✓	0.142	0.0119	0.000597
139	global_market	98		✗	0.829	0.00239	0.0147
140	great_advantag	15		✓	0.0139	0.000199	0.000796
140	great_advantag	15		✗	0.961	0.00935	0.0143
141	urban_area	26		✓	0.0448	0	0.000199
141	urban_area	26		✗	0.953	0.00139	0.000995
142	rural_area	3		✓	0.00418	0	0
142	rural_area	3		✗	0.996	0	0
143	feder_govern	4		✓	0.00139	0	0
143	feder_govern	4		✗	0.999	0	0
144	tax_incent	14		✓	0.00219	0.000199	0
144	tax_incent	14		✗	0.998	0	0
145	feder_govern	26		✓	0.00259	0	0
145	feder_govern	26		✗	0.997	0	0
146	local_commun	26		✓	0.00279	0	0
146	local_commun	26		✗	0.997	0	0
147	make_progress	12		✓	0.00736	0	0
147	make_progress	12		✗	0.993	0	0
148	__NUM___centuri	15		✓	0.00358	0.000199	0
148	__NUM___centuri	15		✗	0.996	0	0
149	clean_energi	33		✓	0.00677	0	0
149	clean_energi	33		✗	0.993	0	0
150	green_build	11		✓	0.00119	0	0
150	green_build	11		✗	0.999	0	0
151	__MONEY___billion	4		✓	0.000597	0	0
151	__MONEY___billion	4		✗	0.999	0	0
152	low_interest	5		✓	0.000199	0	0
152	low_interest	5		✗	1	0	0
153	energi_effici	6		✓	0.000398	0	0
153	energi_effici	6		✗	1	0	0
154	collar_job	25		✓	0.00418	0	0
154	collar_job	25		✗	0.996	0	0
155	energi_effici	25		✓	0.00219	0	0.000597
155	energi_effici	25		✗	0.997	0	0
156	reduc_emiss	19		✓	0.0149	0	0.0358
156	reduc_emiss	19		✗	0.949	0	0.000597
157	energi_effici	10		✓	0.000995	0	0.00179
157	energi_effici	10		✗	0.962	0	0.0352
158	nation_energi	5		✓	0.00517	0	0.133
158	nation_energi	5		✗	0.825	0	0.0368
159	__NUM___year	6		✓	0.0304	0.000199	0.0854
159	__NUM___year	6		✗	0.719	0	0.165
160	higher_standard	10		✓	0.0145	0.00896	0.119
160	higher_standard	10		✗	0.612	0	0.246
161	loan_guarante	55		✓	0.287	0.00199	0.108
161	loan_guarante	55		✗	0.304	0.000597	0.298
162	unit_state	13		✓	0.161	0.00119	0.0203
162	unit_state	13		✗	0.458	0.000597	0.359
163	make_progress	29		✓	0.306	0.000199	0.00856
163	make_progress	29		✗	0.489	0.000199	0.196
164	great_nation	51		✓	0.424	0.00179	0
164	great_nation	51		✗	0.573	0	0.000995
165	middl_class	4		✓	0.0187	0.000597	0
165	middl_class	4		✗	0.979	0.00159	0
166	rise_standard	10		✓	0.0424	0.000398	0.000796
166	rise_standard	10		✗	0.956	0	0
167	__NUM___mile	21		✓	0.0486	0.00179	0.0199
167	__NUM___mile	21		✗	0.929	0.000199	0.000796
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	125

Hillary Clinton

Cue-lag representation