Anonymized smartphone-based mobility data has been widely adopted in devising and evaluating COVID-19 response strategies such as the targeting of public health resources. Yet little attention has been paid to measurement validity and demographic bias, due in part to the lack of documentation about which users are represented as well as the challenge of obtaining ground truth data on unique visits and demographics. We illustrate how linking large-scale administrative data can enable auditing mobility data for bias in the absence of demographic information and ground truth labels. More precisely, we show that linking voter roll data containing individual-level voter turnout for specific voting locations along with race and age can facilitate the construction of rigorous bias and reliability tests. Using data from North Carolina's 2018 general election, these tests illuminate a sampling bias that is particularly noteworthy in the pandemic context: older and non-white voters are less likely to be captured by mobility data. We show that allocating public health resources based on such mobility data could disproportionately harm high-risk elderly and minority groups.

Algorithmic risk assessments are used to inform decisions in a wide variety of high-stakes settings. Often multiple predictive models deliver similar overall performance but differ markedly in their predictions for individual cases, an empirical phenomenon known as the "Rashomon Effect." These models may have different properties over various groups, and therefore have different predictive fairness properties. We develop a framework for characterizing predictive fairness properties over the set of models that deliver similar overall performance, or "the set of good models." Our framework addresses the empirically relevant challenge of selectively labelled data in the setting where the selection decision and outcome are unconfounded given the observed data features. Our framework can be used to 1) replace an existing model with one that has better fairness properties; or 2) audit for predictive bias. We illustrate these uses cases on a real-world credit-scoring task and a recidivism prediction task.

Algorithms are commonly used to predict outcomes under a particular decision or intervention, such as predicting whether an offender will succeed on parole if placed under minimal supervision. Generally, to learn such counterfactual prediction models from observational data on historical decisions and corresponding outcomes, one must measure all factors that jointly affect the outcomes and the decision taken. Motivated by decision support applications, we study the counterfactual prediction task in the setting where all relevant factors are captured in the historical data, but it is either undesirable or impermissible to use some such factors in the prediction model. We refer to this setting as runtime confounding. We propose a doubly-robust procedure for learning counterfactual prediction models in this setting. Our theoretical analysis and experimental results suggest that our method often outperforms competing approaches. We also present a validation procedure for evaluating the performance of counterfactual prediction methods.

Algorithmic risk assessments are increasingly used to help humans make decisions in high-stakes settings, such as medicine, criminal justice and education. In each of these cases, the purpose of the risk assessment tool is to inform actions, such as medical treatments or release conditions, often with the aim of reducing the likelihood of an adverse event such as hospital readmission or recidivism. Problematically, most tools are trained and evaluated on historical data in which the outcomes observed depend on the historical decision-making policy. These tools thus reflect risk under the historical policy, rather than under the different decision options that the tool is intended to inform. Even when tools are constructed to predict risk under a specific decision, they are often improperly evaluated as predictors of the target outcome. Focusing on the evaluation task, in this paper we define counterfactual analogues of common predictive performance and algorithmic fairness metrics that we argue are better suited for the decision-making context. We introduce a new method for estimating the proposed metrics using doubly robust estimation. We provide theoretical results that show that only under strong conditions can fairness according to the standard metric and the counterfactual metric simultaneously hold. Consequently, fairness-promoting methods that target parity in a standard fairness metric may --- and as we show empirically, do --- induce greater imbalance in the counterfactual analogue. We provide empirical comparisons on both synthetic data and a real world child welfare dataset to demonstrate how the proposed method improves upon standard practice.

We propose a novel algorithm for learning fair representations that can simultaneously mitigate two notions of disparity among different demographic subgroups in the classification setting. Two key components underpinning the design of our algorithm are balanced error rate and conditional alignment of representations. We show how these two components contribute to ensuring accuracy parity and equalized false-positive and false-negative rates across groups without impacting demographic parity. Furthermore, we also demonstrate both in theory and on two real-world experiments that the proposed algorithm leads to a better utility-fairness trade-off on balanced datasets compared with existing algorithms on learning fair representations for classification.

In time-to-event prediction problems, a standard approach to estimating an interpretable model is to use Cox proportional hazards, where features are selected based on lasso regularization or stepwise regression. However, these Cox-based models do not learn how different features relate. As an alternative, we present an interpretable neural network approach to jointly learn a survival model to predict time-to-event outcomes while simultaneously learning how features relate in terms of a topic model. In particular, we model each subject as a distribution over "topics", which are learned from clinical features as to help predict a time-to-event outcome. From a technical standpoint, we extend existing neural topic modeling approaches to also minimize a survival analysis loss function. We study the effectiveness of this approach on seven healthcare datasets on predicting time until death as well as hospital ICU length of stay, where we find that neural survival-supervised topic models achieves competitive accuracy with existing approaches while yielding interpretable clinical "topics" that explain feature relationships.

Risk assessment is a growing use for machine learning models. When used in high-stakes applications, especially ones regulated by anti-discrimination laws or governed by societal norms for fairness, it is important to ensure that learned models do not propagate and scale any biases that may exist in training data. In this paper, we add on an additional challenge beyond fairness: unsupervised domain adaptation to covariate shift between a source and target distribution. Motivated by the real-world problem of risk assessment in new markets for health insurance in the United States and mobile money-based loans in East Africa, we provide a precise formulation of the machine learning with covariate shift and score parity problem. Our formulation focuses on situations in which protected attributes are not available in either the source or target domain. We propose two new weighting methods: prevalence-constrained covariate shift (PCCS) which does not require protected attributes in the target domain and target-fair covariate shift (TFCS) which does not require protected attributes in the source domain. We empirically demonstrate their efficacy in two applications.