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In this subsection we recast the robust inference problem as a parameter
estimation problem. Consider a transformed Bayesian network
with transparent variables z'i. Each transparent variable
has values 1, 2, ..., |z'i|;. Suppose z'i is a random
variable with distribution thetaij = p(z'i = j).
Call Theta the vector of all thetaij.
Suppose xq is queried; the objective is to find:
p(xq = a | e) = maxTheta [p(xq = a, e)/p(e)]
Notice that the optimization procedure has to be repeated for each of the
values of the queried variable.
To solve the robust inference problem,
we must maximize the posterior log-likelihood for Theta:
L(Theta) = log [p(xq = a, e)/p(e)]
= logp(xq = a, e) - logp(e).
This problem is similar to the problem of learning Bayesian network
parameters Theta given data e. We are then lead to propose algorithms
for robust inference that are based on the literature of learning Bayesian
networks. Several interior-point algorithms exist in this category;
here we present a few techniques properly adapted for robust inferences.
© Fabio Cozman[Send Mail?]
Fri May 30 15:55:18 EDT 1997