From newshub.ccs.yorku.ca!torn!cs.utexas.edu!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!malgudi.oar.net!news.ans.net!cmcl2!panix!rlr Tue Nov 24 10:51:35 EST 1992
Article 7604 of comp.ai.philosophy:
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>From: rlr@panix.com (Richard L. Rosen)
Subject: Re: The Paradox of the Unexpected Hanging
Message-ID: <1992Nov11.214805.14100@panix.com>
Date: Wed, 11 Nov 1992 21:48:05 GMT
References: <2217@sdrc.COM> <BxHv6w.KJu@ns1.nodak.edu> <BxIrtx.B98@cs.vu.nl> <1992Nov11.073859.16764JPII@tygra.Michigan.COM>
Organization: RLRCLC
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(I'm walking in in the middle and I hope I don't have the wrong "unexpected
hanging" problem here, but...)

I always thought the resolution to this whole unexpected hanging problem was
based in something no one seemed to be considering.  When the prisoner goes
through his cascading logic that "proves" that it cannot happen on any of the
available days, the system reduces it being equally unlikely (zero likelihood)
that the event will occur on any given day.  (By the same token, it is equally
LIKELY that the event will occur on any given day.)  That is precisely the
condition in which you can have surprise...

The act of proving (by whatever means) that you cannot be surprised leads to a
condition in which you can be.

(Unless, of course, I missed someone offering this analysis, in which case,
never mind...)
-- 
"Digging in the dirt, stay with me I need support		
 Digging in the dirt, find the places I got hurt		Rich Rosen
 Open up the places I got hurt..."				rlr@panix.com


