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From: hubey@pegasus.montclair.edu (H. M. Hubey)
Subject: Re: 3-prisoners problem
Message-ID: <hubey.779590116@pegasus.montclair.edu>
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Date: Thu, 15 Sep 1994 00:48:36 GMT
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jhc@ix.netcom.com (James Conklin) writes:

>>Without switching, the probability is 1/3 he will win.  If he switches
>>it is 1/2.  This can be solved mathematically using Bayes' equation
>>involving the probability of something given certain conditions. It has
>>been a long while since I took a probability class, so I may have said
>>something incorrectly.
>>

Suppose we change the problem a bit. After the contestant makes his
choice we put a mark on the bottom of the box (let it be a box
instead of a door) and then we show one of the boxes which is not a
winner. Then without showing the contestant, the moderator shuffles
the other two boxes (one of which is marked i.e. the original choice).

Now whichever choice the contestant makes his odds of winning are
still 1/2.  Switching has nothing to do with it.

--
						-- Mark---
....we must realize that the infinite in the sense of an infinite totality, 
where we still find it used in deductive methods, is an illusion. Hilbert,1925
