Newsgroups: comp.ai.philosophy
Path: cantaloupe.srv.cs.cmu.edu!das-news.harvard.edu!news2.near.net!MathWorks.Com!panix!ddsw1!redstone.interpath.net!news.sprintlink.net!primenet!slip252.primenet.com!gmezero
From: gmezero@primenet.com (Game Zero)
Subject: Re: Is Common Sense Explicit or Implicit?
Message-ID: <gmezero.16.00405747@primenet.com>
Sender: news@primenet.com (News)
Organization: Primenet (602)395-1111
Date: Sat, 17 Sep 1994 15:48:28 GMT
References: <357uj6$m8r@search01.news.aol.com> <3585tg$olv@search01.news.aol.com> <358ijs$bej@mp.cs.niu.edu> <pautler-150994100002@pautler.ils.nwu.edu>
X-Newsreader: Trumpet for Windows [Version 1.0 Rev B final beta #1]
Lines: 46

In article <pautler-150994100002@pautler.ils.nwu.edu> pautler@ils.nwu.edu (David Pautler) writes:

>rickert@cs.niu.edu (Neil Rickert) wrote:

>> When I am driving, I often can predict the behavior of the drivers
>> around me.  But I certainly don't do so by attempting to ascribe
>> beliefs.  Instead, I am presumably making statistical estimates based
>> on similar circumstances in my past.  Much of this happens at a
>> subconscious level, and my experience is one of intuitive judgements
>> as to the likely behavior of the other driver(s).

>Are you ascribing beliefs when you mutter "That idiot is trying to
>get all the way over to the right lane"?

>Aren't statistical estimates beliefs?  Why aren't intuitive judgements
>beliefs?


Can we possibly say that a belief is a statistical estimate as statistical 
probability approaches zero/undefined?

In an earlier example abouth the location of a particular building, it was 
stated that a "belief" about the location of the building changed when a 
friend revealed the correct location. Could this have not been a series of 
statistical probabilities?

IE--

**It is statistically improbable that a building will move.

**It is statistically probable that the Empire State Builinding is indeed a 
   building. (versus a natural landform or hallucination)

**If buildings do not move, and the Empire State Building is a building, then 
   it is statistically probable that the Empire State Building does not move.

**If the Empire State Building is here today, and it is statistically 
   improbable that it will move, then it is statistically probable that it 
   will be here tommorow.

"Faith" could possibly be determined from the level of statistical 
probability overall. I may be less likely to "believe" that something useful 
will come from Congress, say, because my statstical data from observing 
Congress shows me that useless things .have. come from Congress, whereas, I 
may "believe" a building will .not. move because I have not observed any data 
to the contrary.
