Artificial Intelligence for Development Document No: AID/newsletter/3 Last Modified and by whom: 17/5/91 kk Distributed on: 22/5/91 Artificial Intelligence for Development Newsletter Number 3 May 1991 This newsletter is being sent by both electronic and paper mail. If you no longer wish to receive it, or have any contributions or comments on its content, please contact KK by any of the normal methods. Contributions will be particularly well received! Micro Hydro Scheme Design for Nepal Teresa Anderson (ta@ed.emf) writes: The decision support software for Micro Hydro design is a computer program which typically carries out the task of combining data supplied by a user with information in its own database, in a way prescribed by its `rule base', in order to infer conclusions about the situations described by the input data. Many scheme assessors and designers have professional expertise in only one of the disciplines contributing to micro hydro, having acquired the rest of their knowledge `on the job'. Decision support software provides an expert resource for such workers. Data drawn from a wide range of experts can build up an invaluable overall picture, with the knowledge and experience of many people stored in one system. Decision support software can take a designer through a standardised procedure, ensuring that nos stages of the process are missed. This ensures that biases peculiar to each designer are removed and provides a safety net to check fo any errors in design. It provides a method whereby all individuals in an organisation use standard procedures and standard components, and maintains a constant emphasis on the relative importance of various criteria from day to day. An added advantage is that it speeds up the process of carrying out standard calculations. A designer who is pressed for time may find it impossible to make more than a few passes through the iterative calculations associated with optimisation routines. A computer can carry out the repetitive calculations quickly and reliably, allowing the designer to see the effect of changing the values of various system parameters without wasting valuable time. Where no national hydrological data base exists, building up data from gauged small and micro hydro sites can be a first step towards recording the flow regime of the system of small rivers and streams. Decision support software for site evaluation would also generate records of data on potential sites in a standardised format. Scheme records including data such as component specifications, site layout sketches, details of breakdowns and repairs, would be invaluable to an installation and maintenance team. Recurring faults can be shown up when breakdowns are logged systematically. The specifications, price, and availability of components by various manufacturers can also be stored. The practice of repair on demand results in unnecessary loss of operation time, and therefore revenue. Routine maintenance scheduling, where equipment and civil works are checked for problems at regular intervals, can significantly reduce the number of occasions on which total shutdown of a scheme is required. Decision support software can prompt this, either on-screen, or by printing out a suggested schedule at the commissioning date. An extensive system of information files and explanations of how decisions are arrived at are essential for any interactive design software. This would be useful for building up the expertise and confidence of practitioners new to teh field, who could use the system to experiment with different designs for schemes and see how certain problems may be solved. The MICADO System The MICADO system of Decision Support software for MICro hydro Assessment scheme Design, Optimisation and record-keeping has been configured on the CRYSTAL expert system shell using LOTUS1-2-3 as a database template for frequently accessed data. The system is modular in structure, and carries out tasks such as assessment of hydrological data and demand for power, civil works calculations, and a selection of electromechanical equipment from databases of available models. the software interacts with the user via natural language, asking YES/NO questions, requesting numerical data and occasionally asking for subjective evaluations for instances in which no quantitative data is available. Information files are included which employ both text and graphics, and a HELP function can be invoked while the system is running. This general approach has such attractions that several similar suites of software for the design of small-scale hydro schemes in the developed world are now being considered. However, the conditions which obtain in developing countries require more flexibility in the mode of their solution. In operation, therefore, an experienced practitioner can override the MICADO system recommendations at all stages, if there are specific local circumstances which the software cannot take into account. In this sense the software provides decision support, rather than making inflexible recommendations to designers which may be impossible to implement given local or national conditions. The system can be run on PCs in offices by engineers running optimisation routines, or consulting scheme details, by officials of development banks assessing feasability of applications for scheme funding, or can be run on laptops by engineers in the field carrying out site and demand surveys. While the design methods and rationale have been largely dictated by the situation in Nepal, it is envisaged that the system will also have useful applications in other countries. A prototype version of the software has been taken to Nepal and runs successfully on PCs and laptops belonging to various organisations concerned with the promotion of micro-hydro designers, equipment manufacturers or operators. The software package is presently being refined ro include improvements and modifications which were suggested by potential users in Nepal. Other features are also being included on the basis of the experience of the authors working in other countries with similar conditions and problems. Field trials for the modified system are scheduled to begin in April 1990. Low cost global electronic communications networks for the developing world. Mike Jensen (mikej@uucp.gn) writes: Electronic mailbox and messaging services offer an ideal tool for enhancing communications in the less developed world. It is a cheaper and more convenient technology than facsimile or telex wherever a computer is available. However, the communications infrastructure in the less developed countries varies from very good to abysmal. As a result, the appropriate communications solution may vary from one location to the next. This paper outlines the two basic means of connecting mailboxes to the global network and discusses which method may be the most appropriate for the various circumstances. The Technology Basic communications links and messaging systems Many of the less developed countries are now installing a packet switched data line service, also called PSS/IPSS (International Packet Switched Service) which uses the internationally standardised X.25 protocol. The PTT - national post office or telephone company is almost always the operator of such a service and usually installs connection points to IPSS in the major cities. This allows modem users in these cities to make a local voice grade phone call to get on to the international packet switched network. From there commands can be issued to link up to any country with an electronic mail or database host computer connected to the X.25 network. To access such a service, the user orders a NUI (Network User ID) from the local PTT. This comprises a registration fee, monthly or quarterly rental, and usage charges to connect to the remote host. For regular users, NUI rental usually provides a significantly cheaper option than making a direct dial international phone call to the electronic host. If the host is accessed infrequently, then the cost of a NUI may not be justified. As with a normal telephone call, there is usually a substantially higher usage charge for connecting to a host outside the country. Since there are still very few internationally connected local hosts in the less developed world, this will generally be the case. The host bills separately for the use of its services but for sending messages, up to 90per cent of the cost of the international connection can be in the charges made by the local PTT for use of the NUI. Rate structures for IPSS are complex and monthly costs of using such a service to connect to a host can vary enormously from one to country to another. Rental charges for a NUI can vary from 20 dollars a quarter to 200. Some PTTs expect the NUI user to rent PTT owned modems at inflated rates. Even usage charges (which are based on time spent online and the volume of date passed down the network) can vary by a factor of five between different PTTs. Most of the developing countries do not have an IPSS service. Asia and Africa are particularly under-represented. Where it is available in these regions it is usually considerably more expensive than in the West. On top of this certain PTTs may only have an IPSS that connects to certain countries and not others. As a result, international direct dialing is often the only option. With conventional terminal software and bad telephone lines this method of connection can be expensive, unreliable and stressful for the operator. However, recent developments in PC based communications software have improved the situation. It is now possible to send messages and files over poor quality telephone lines at minimal cost using automated computer controlled connections with file compression and error checking. These programmes typically reduce the length of the long distance call by 80-95 per cent compared to the time taken for a standard interactive manually controlled session with the host. They result in completely error free transmissions, without the need for manual intervention of the operator. Using this software is more like sending a fax than going through the series of 'log on' procedures necessary connect to a remote host. Developed in the amateur and academic environment over the last 10 years much of this software is free for non-commercial use or very cheap to purchase (ECU10-ECU100), running on any IBM compatible or Macintosh. Currently there are over 10 000 such systems exchanging messages and files globally. Messages can be prepared separately on any type of word processor and a 2400 baud modem costing about ECU 200 serves to link the PC to the telephone line. The equipment does not require the installation of a separate line - existing voice or fax lines can be temporarily diverted to the modem while it places the call. Any such system can also be left switched on for longer periods, in a state ready to receive messages from other such systems. Researchers in the field can use the computer and modem in this fashion to place calls directly to others in the South using the same software. Alternatively they could make direct dial calls to a host in Europe or North America where files and messages can be stored for pick-up by the central office, or for onward transmission to other regions. This system is already being used by a number of organisations in the developing world, including Kenya, Zambia, Zimbabwe, the Phillipines and Baltic states. With the 2400 baud modem, users are reliably achieving transmission speeds of 220 characters per second (cps). Because the messages and files are automatically compressed before transmission to one third of their original size (and even more for fixed length record databases - up to 10 times) it is possible to send or receive about 40 000 characters (about 6 500 words) during a one minute call. Because the connection between the computers is all under control of the machine at each end, the only time when the full 220 cps transmission speed is not being achieved is during the first 10-15 seconds while handshaking between the two computers takes place. The file transfer protocols used between the two computers have a high level of resiliency to line noise and satellite delays, continuously adjusting the packet size to appropriate values. In addition, if the connection breaks while a file transfer is taking place, the transfer is able to pick up where it left off on the next call. This is particularly important for transporting large binary files where the chances of losing the connection over poor quality telephone lines is significant. For the cost of about ECU 1000 a high speed modem can be purchased when the volume of communication makes it more cost effective. Depending on the quality of the phone line, a modem such as the Telebit Trailblazer (TM) can transmit data 4 to 8 times faster than the 2400 baud modem. Host systems to carry this traffic into the North are currently operating 24 hours a day in London, Stockholm and Toronto supporting the high speed V.32 and PEP protocols as well as the standard V.22 (1200 baud) and V.22bis (2400 baud) protocols. These machines provide hourly gateway connections to the APC (Association for Progressive Communications) and GeoNet X.25 hosts in Brazil, Australia, Sweden, Nicaragua, US and Canada, and many countries in Europe. Messages can be sent through these machines to outbound fax and telex servers, to commercial hosts such as Dialcom, and to other networks like Janet, BitNet, and UseNet/UUCP. For many purposes, sending files and messages to directly another individual is all that is necessary, however, there is also the opportunity to 'broadcast' the message to a select group of participants. These 'mailing lists', also known as electronic conferences or bulletin boards can be publicly available to anyone on any of these networks, or restricted to a select group - for example a co-ordinating committee. The sender does not have to know the electronic address of each participant to send them each a message, instead a single message is sent to the predefined mailing list running on the host which then decides which systems to pass the message to. The list could comprise an unlimited mixture of fax numbers, telex numbers, electronic mail addresses and bulletin boards or conferences running on certain hosts. Implementation One of the biggest tasks facing an organisation needing access to the electronic network will be carrying out training in its use. Using the new communications software is definitely the most appropriate way of connecting worldwide. However it may not operate on non-standard or non-IBM/Apple equipment. As well, many users may already be familiar with an existing means of communicating with their local host. Therefore the quickest means of bringing up the network may be to leave those already connecting to the global electronic network with the tools they are using. Thereby leaving the initial phase of the project to concentrate on bringing new participants online. For someone familiar with the computer for word processing or some other basic application, a half day training workshop would be sufficient to acquaint the user with all that is necessary to send and receive files and messages. A self installing configuration is available for IBM compatibles and a running system can ideally be set up in half an hour by someone without any special skills other than basic familiarity with the keyboard. Occasionally there are a variety of problems that can crop up. Non-standard hardware configurations may need some trouble-shooting by someone familiar with the DOS operating system and DOS level commands. Hooking up the modem to a PABX type telephone system can be difficult, and may require the assistance of the phone company or PTT. Non-standard modems, telephones wired directly into the wall and operator assisted direct dialling can also be problematic for the inexperienced. For this reason it is probably best to consider each installation individually. Clearly the organisation's main office will need to install the software and evaluate it. Following approval, a couple of remote test sites could be established where setting up the link is going to simplest or access to technical support is available. When lessons have been learned from this, further sites could then be established. Attempts are being made to keep track of consultants who may already be travelling in the field and may be available for further training sessions. News from around the world Contributions to this section are particularly welcome. Personal experience from living and working in a country, or even having visited for a short time, is always interesting, and this is also a good forum to pass on informal knowledge gleaned from other sources. SatelLife groundstation in Zimbabwe Deiter Klein (dklein@edu.wpi.wpi) from SatelLife writes: that SatelLife are now operating on a test basis and have a ground station in Zimbabwe, in the care of the (medical?) library at the University of Zimbabwe. They are setting up an uplink station in St.John, NF in Canada where they will be licensed. This will be the link up for all the stations through peacenet. Groups, Bulletin Boards and Mailing Lists BCS Developing Countries Specialist Group The BCS Developing Countries Specialist Group provides a network of contacts for members interested in information technology practices in developing countries. It also holds seminars and workshops which help enhance understanding of the special issues developing countries must resolve in their approach to IT. Recent seminars have included `Geographical Information Systems (GIS) 1990', `IT Education for Developing Countries' March 1991 and the next event will be `Value Added Networks (VANS) in Developing Countries' planned for later this year. This information is taken from an article which appeared in `The Computer Bulletin' of March 1991. Anyone interested in joining the BCS developing Countries Specialist Group should contact the Group Secretary, Mike Gunner at ICL Slough, Tel. 0734 352 915 or Philip Veasey, DCSG chairman, ICL, Feltham tel. 081 890 1414. New Newsgroup After a successful vote we have established a new electronic news group to be entitled comp.society.development. The group should be coming on line very soon. Watch out for it and subscribe! The group will discuss applications of computer technology in developing countries. Topics might include: specific stories of successful (and unsuccessful) uses of computers in developing countries general discussion of the difficulties and advantages of using computers in developing countries comments from developing country computer users on their experiences requests from developing country computer users for computer-related advice news about communications, especially networks and electronic mail, to and within developing countries updates from aid agencies, volunteer groups and others active in developing countries on computer-related projects underway or under consideration discussions about appropriate hardware and software general news about books, seminars, conferences, and projects itemize General discussions of Third World politics or economics will be avoided. Latin American Mailing Lists We have information on electronic mail addresses and subscription details for many latin american mailing lists. The members are people that have a common national origin or an interest in that particular region. They exchange information and news, and discuss about topics such as politics, gourmet food, traveling, and many matters of daily life. They also serve for professional exchange or just to make new friends. The mailing lists listed are non-commercial (free access) and one member volunteers to administrate a list. Areas covered include Argentina, Brasil, Caribe, Central America, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Iberoamerica, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, Quebec, Uruguay and Venezuela. There are also professional mailinglists concerned with astronomy, health, physics, psychology and social sciences. If you would like to know more about these mailing lists, contact ER through any of the normal channels. THE LASPAU NETWORK PROJECT The LASPAU Network Project seeks to encourage computer communications for academic purposes throughout the Americas. The mission of LASPAU is to address the international education and training objectives of institutions and individuals by supporting, developing, and managing academic exchange and professional development programs with an inter-American focus. LASPAU is an association of more than four hundred institutions of higher education throughout the Americas. Established in 1964, LASPAU is affiliated with Harvard University and is governed by an inter-American board of trustees. Through a variety of specialised services, LASPAU carries out programs for several sponsors including the United States Information Agency, the United States Agency for International Development, the Fundacion Gr n Mariscal de Ayacucho of Venezuela, and multilateral funding sources such as the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank. LASPAU thus assists these sponsoring agencies as they cooperate with Latin American and Caribbean institutions, and on occasion with institutions elsewhere, that seek to assess and fulfill their educational and training needs. The organization also offers specialized educational consulting services to institutions both inside and outside the Americas. The majority of LASPAU-administered awards support graduate training at the master's level, but a significant number support doctoral, undergraduate, and non-degree study. To subscribe to this list, send an electronic message to LISTSERV at HARVARDA (or LISTSERV@HARVARDA.BITNET), with the following contents: SUB LASPAU-L (your name) Conferences Philip Machanik (philip@edu.stanford.pescadero) writes: AITEC SOUTH - Computer and Communications Expo and Conference, Harare 13-16 November 1991. This will be run in partnership with the Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries, as well as the Computer Society of Zimbabwe and the Zimbabwe Institute of Public Relations. The steering committee includes representation from the CZI, Computer Society, Computer Sellers' Association, Apple Users' Group, Government Computer Bureau and Posts and Telecommunications Corporation. The event will consist of a conference and an exposition, with international speakers. The theme is "Computers and Communications in Practice". The aim is to make it a regional event, with a combination of executive briefings and technical workshops. AITEC EAST - Similar event in Nairobi, Kenya, 26-28 June 1991. The overall conference is chaired by George Okado, Kenya Computer Institute. The conference planning committee includes Dr Edmund Katiti, president of the Uganda Computer Society, Sean Moroney, publisher of Computers in Africa, Alexander McNabb, publisher of Communications Middle East Africa, and Simon Bell, University of East Anglia (UK). Conference topics include Implementing an IT Strategy, Government Applications, Desktop Publishing, Office Productivity Applications, Computer-Aided Design/Manufacturing, Medicine and Health Applications, Public Telecoms - African ISDN Strategies and Electronic Mail. There are a few bonuses for registering by 31 May. If you want more information write to: Sean Moroney ITP Africa File Limited Angus House 13 Tilehouse Street Hitchin Hertfordshire SG5 2DU UK phone international + (44 462) 420785, fax 420786 Next meeting: Well, it looks like we have no-one lined up at the moment. Please send suggestions for future meetings to KK. Unfortunately we have no finances to pay for visiting speakers, but if you know of anyone interesting who'll be in town (or within the sort of vicinity that it wouldn't bankrupt us to get them here) and would like to speak to the group at some point, please get in touch. Perhaps you would like to give a short talk... Software library: Howard Beck Artificial Intelligence Applications Institute University of Edinburgh 80 South Bridge Edinburgh EH1 1HN 031 650 2747 hab@uk.ac.ed.aiai Newsletter, overall co-ordination,meetings: Kathleen King Department of Artificial Intelligence University of Edinburgh 80 South Bridge Edinburgh EH1 1HN 031 650 2726 kk@uk.ac.ed.aisb Contacts and Funding: Robert Muetzelfeldt Department of Forestry and Natural Resources University of Edinburgh Kings Buildings Mayfield Road Edinburgh EH9 3JU 031 650 5408 R.Muetzelfeldt@uk.ac.edinburgh Literature resource and bibliography: Ehud Reiter Department of Artificial Intelligence University of Edinburgh 80 South Bridge Edinburgh EH1 1HN 031 650 2728 reiter@uk.ac.ed.aisb Mailing Lists: Mandy Haggith Department of Artificial Intelligence University of Edinburgh 80 South Bridge Edinburgh EH1 1HN 031 650 2721 hag@uk.ac.ed.aisb