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From: strohm@mksol.dseg.ti.com (john r strohm)
Subject: Re: market share of embedded systems
Message-ID: <1994May18.220021.11999@mksol.dseg.ti.com>
Organization: Texas Instruments, Inc
References: <CpzEHF.8p7@osuunx.ucc.okstate.edu> <Cq0EE8.8JA.3@cs.cmu.edu>
Date: Wed, 18 May 1994 22:00:21 GMT
Lines: 38

In article <Cq0EE8.8JA.3@cs.cmu.edu> fitz@frc.ri.cmu.edu writes:
>The embedded control market significantly overshadows the PC market
>(which of course overshadows the Unix/RISC market).  Computer
>companies such as IBM & Motorola recognize this and are developing
>strategies for it.  While current automobiles, etc generally use the
>68HC11 or 68HC16 - you will see the transition to chips such as the
>PowerPC.  The 68HC series will probably begin to show up in great
>volume as home controllers, smart appliances, etc.

Hardly.

One of the big names did a talk a few years ago at one of the trade shows,
and the talk was written up in "Embedded Systems Programming".  He described
the market for embedded processors as having three main segments:

  - zero cost (huge numbers of systems procured; recurring costs dominate
               the total cost picture.)

  - zero power (only a very small amount of electricity is available;
               for whatever reason, the system CANNOT be a juice hog.)

  - zero volume (i.e., only a very small number of systems procured)

Things like your typical automobile are in the "zero cost" segment.
Things like your typical Mars probe or F-22 are in the "zero volume"
segment.

The name then went on to say that, to a first approximation, the "zero
cost" segment comprised 100% of the market.

In other words, as long as the 68HC11-based automobile computer is cheaper
to manufacture than the PowerPC-based automobile computer, you aren't going
to see PowerPC chips under the hood of your Found-On-Road-Dead.

The cost of software development is basically lost in the noise, when you
consider that it is amortized over literally millions of production units,
in the "zero cost" segment.

