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From: longrich@princeton.edu (Nick Longrich)
Subject: Re: Computers--Next stage in evolution? Hmmmmmm.....
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Date: Sun, 19 Feb 1995 10:47:32 GMT
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Xref: glinda.oz.cs.cmu.edu comp.ai:27603 comp.ai.philosophy:25648 comp.ai.alife:2498

   There's been talk here about annihilation with nuclear weapons, I for
one am cynical about humanity's ability to deal out mass destruction
effectively. Take a look at a comparable event: the Cretaceous-Tertiary
impact in the Yucatan. It was about 100,000 times the size of a full-scale
nuclear war, at least in megatonnage of explosive power and caused a huge
mass extinction. Yet it "only" managed to wipe out half to seventy percent
of the species alive- amphibians, snakes, lizards, probably nearly all
insect groups, crustaceans, many different groups of mammals, several
groups of birds, various fishes, turtles, octopi, spiders, etc. etc. etc.
all survived. This was a really, really nasty event, it would appear,
because it did manage to take out a lot of other animals: terrestrial
dinosaurs, sea-reptiles, the ammonites and many highly successful groups
went extinct. But overall, despite something like years of darkness, life
went on; probably not a lot survived but enough to repopulate the planet.
This is, of course, neglecting the effects of radioactive fallout, but I'd
guess that once it became well-mized in the atmosphere and ocean, the
long-term effect would be a large increase in the mutation rate. 
   So if anybody out there wants to start WWIII, I'll bet you good money
that the birds, reptiles, fish, mammals, etc. will still be around after
it's over. Of course, I probably wouldn't be around to collect so this
would be a pointless bet. Whether humans would survive or not, however, is
a different question. If any large mammals were to survive, it almost
certainly would be us. We live in an incredible variety of environments,
eat many different foods, we have proven our ability to survive in the
depths of the Marianas trench and the depths of space, we can adapt with
incredible rapidity because of our minds. I think we might manage to be,
in our own way, extremely tenacious. All it would take would be a
population of maybe a few hundred survivors to start it all back up again.

   Now, if Homo sapiens wants to get serious about global catastrophe, we
have to use our nuclear weaponry with a little more skill. If you want to
create a cataclysmic disaster, fire the ICBMS into space, knock an
asteroid into interception orbit, and watch the whole Cretaceous-Tertiary
scenario replay itself. Now, maybe we don't equal bacteria and nematodes
for biomass, but I'd like to see them try that stunt.
