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From: minsky@media.mit.edu (Marvin Minsky)
Subject: Re: Scientific Impossibilities (was Conscious Robots NOT!)
Message-ID: <1994Oct21.160907.12919@news.media.mit.edu>
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References: <38122o$e3m@crl8.crl.com> <mreddy-191094082050@mreddy.comp.glam.ac.uk> <Cxy2EC.35J@psych.toronto.edu>
Date: Fri, 21 Oct 1994 16:09:07 GMT
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In article <Cxy2EC.35J@psych.toronto.edu> christo@psych.toronto.edu (Christopher Green) writes:
>>In article <38122o$e3m@crl8.crl.com>, azi@crl.com (Bill Pappas) wrote:
>>
>>> Does anyone know of a single example of a successful impossibility
>>> forecast in science or technology?
>>
>Of course, any apparently successful impossibility claim might turn out
>to be false tomorrow.  This is just the logical problem of proving a
>negative instance.  However, there is the famous (so I thought) case
>of the proof that an atomic-powered airplane is impossible. It was
>convincing enough to stop the American project to construct such a 
>plane and, as far as I know, stop anyone else from attempting to in any sort of
>serious way.  (As I recall, the proof turns on the fact that the weight
>of an atomic engine will require wings so large as to be unliftable by
>said engine, and so on).
>
>-- 
>Christopher D. Green                christo@psych.toronto.edu
>Department of Psychology            cgreen@vm1.yorku.ca
>York University 
>North York, Ontario M3J 1P3

I don't believe that there could be any such proof.  I'm sure you
could make an effective such airplane, especially if you don't worry
much about heavy shielding and safety in case of crash, and I'm wuite
sure that no such proof was ever established. On the other
hand, I would not be surprised if serious design bugs did indeed turn up in
that particular ill-fated project.

As I (vaguely) recall, the thing was supposed to stay up for years
and, if in-flight repairs could be perfected, it might be able to stay up
indefinitely, circling over the Sovet empire to remind them of who was
in charge.  

