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From: mpeppler@itf.ch (Michael Peppler)
Subject: Re: Financial Neural Networks Home Page
Message-ID: <D54Lpv.9C7@itf.ch>
Organization: ITF Management SA, Geneva, Switzerland
References: <3itdu2$fon@money.eng.warwick.ac.uk> <3j792l$5ta@ixnews4.ix.netcom.com> <3j9ko6$dro@bighorn.accessnv.com> <3jhre0$2v0@hatch.sonalysts.com>
Date: Wed, 8 Mar 1995 14:32:18 GMT
Lines: 33
Xref: glinda.oz.cs.cmu.edu comp.ai.genetic:5147 comp.ai.fuzzy:4154

In article <3jhre0$2v0@hatch.sonalysts.com>,
Anthony Cowden <cowden@PROBLEM_WITH_INEWS_GATEWAY_FILE> wrote:
>Robert Farnsworth (bobf@bighorn.accessnv.com) wrote:
>> OK, I will elaborate.
>> Neural Networks are systems which use accumulated data and various indicators
>> and various parameters of those indicators to "teach" the program.
>> There are two problems with this.
>> Backfitting to historical data is one sure way to disaster.
>> The other problem is that a trading system should be mechanical only to a
>> point and that judgement and experience should ultimately determine if the
>> trade should be taken.
>> A lot of this stuff is fun to play with, but trading futures is much less
>> complicated than system developers/sellers,goofballs,crackpots,and gurus
>> would have us believe.
>> KISS (Keep it simple stupid)
>> Bobf
>
>I take it you are a trillionaire who made his money trading futures...

Actually, my experience would tend to agree with Bob's. Simple systems
work better than complex ones over time, and it's very difficult to
trade a highly complex system as a lot has to do with the traders
confidence in his system, and that confidence can only be high when you
really understand what your system is doing.

Only my opinion, of course, but this works for me.

Michael
-- 
Michael Peppler, ITF Management SA, Fontaine 13, CH-1204 Geneva
mpeppler@itf.ch - Tel (4122) 312 1311 - Fax (4122) 312 1325
"A successful [software] tool is one that was used to do something
undreamed of by its author."   -- S. C. Johnson
