Newsgroups: comp.ai.philosophy
From: David@longley.demon.co.uk (David Longley)
Path: cantaloupe.srv.cs.cmu.edu!das-news2.harvard.edu!news2.near.net!howland.reston.ans.net!swrinde!pipex!peernews.demon.co.uk!longley.demon.co.uk!David
Subject: Re: Fragments of Behaviour 4
References: <798819208snz@longley.demon.co.uk> <798969500snz@chatham.demon.co.uk>
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Date: Thu, 27 Apr 1995 10:40:45 +0000
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In article <798969500snz@chatham.demon.co.uk>
           ohgs@chatham.demon.co.uk "Oliver Sparrow" writes:

> Fine stuff: but does not 422 lines (with, presumably, 5 x 422 of them posted
> elsewhere) merit an abstract or exec summary? 
> _________________________________________________
> 
>   Oliver Sparrow
>   ohgs@chatham.demon.co.uk
> 
Funny you should say that Oliver...

A SYSTEM SPECIFICATION FOR PROFILING BEHAVIOUR 
_______________________________________________
PROBE

AN EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
_______________________________________________
D Longley, Principal Psychologist, October 1994

These  12  volumes present a computerised system  for  monitoring  and 
managing inmate behaviour within the English Prison Service. Developed 
primarily in the Maximum Security Long Term Prison Estate between 1987 
and   1994,   the  system  is  designed  to  provide   managers   with 
comprehensive  information on the behaviour of inmates in response  to 
the  day  to  day  demands  of  residential  routines  and  day   time 
activities.  Although long-term prediction of complex dynamic  systems 
can  be  extremely  difficult, recording what  occurs  over  time  can 
provide  reliable measures of differential change. The major  products 
of the PROBE system are computer generated reports on the behaviour of 
individual   inmates  throughout  sentence,  showing  their   relative 
performance on a monthly level as well as trends over longer  periods. 
The  PROBE system also provides profiles of behaviour at the wing  and 
prison  level, thereby allowing managers to monitor long term  changes 
in the average behaviour of their population by wing or even  landing. 
Comprehensive,  and  standardised, behaviour  profiling  is  therefore 
available  from the individual inmate level over time, all the way  up 
to   comparative   profiles   between   whole   establishments,   sub-
establishments  and  wings,  over  time.  All  such  profiles  can  be 
generated  automatically by selecting an option from a local menu,  or 
by downloading a file from a central computer.

'A System Specification for Profiling Behaviour' in 12 volumes, begins 
with  a  series  of  overviews  of  PROBE  written  by  various  field 
psychologists,  along with an introduction to the academic  background 
which lies behind the system. 

Volume  1  provides  a survey of some of the key  areas  in  behaviour 
science bearing on the system. Although not comprehensive, what is not 
covered  explicitly  is covered implicitly. The  main  issues  covered 
include  the  relative merits of adopting an  entirely  behavioral  or 
third  person approach to managing inmates rather than  attempting  to 
work  to include an inmate's point of view. In other words, the  PROBE 
system  adopts  a standard, scientific approach which is based  on  an 
axiom of the predicate calculus which seems to be inapplicable  within 
psychological contexts. This is a central theme which is elaborated in 
the first three volumes. This stance is further developed by providing 
a  review  of the current state of research on the  use  of  actuarial 
(statistical) judgement rather than clinical, or personal  (intuitive) 
judgement.  The  case  is made that the latter can  only  ever  be  an 
approximation of the former at best. Most managers today are too  busy 
to  be  able  to  make  optimal  decisions  without  the  support   of 
Information  Technology and this is likely to continue to be  so.  The 
case  is  made that managers must therefore make greater use  of  such 
systems, and that behaviour scientists must invest more time in  their 
production.  This  leads  naturally  on  to  a  consideration  of  the 
appropriate  technology  to  support the actuarial stance,  and  to  a 
critical  evaluation of current practices adopted by psychologists  in 
their  design  and  evaluation methods  (largely  attempts  at  simple 
factorial  designs  which  test that differences  between  groups  are 
unlikely  to be explained on the basis of chance alone). The  case  is 
presented  that  this is possibly one of the worst  things  that  ever 
happened in psychology, and that all too few psychologists (less  than 
one  in  20) appreciate the weakness of such an approach.  The  volume 
makes the case that a more descriptive approach to data collection and 
research  must  be adopted now that systems are available  to  profile 
entire populations, and that such data should be functionally analyzed 
using  simple  regression technology with an aim to  establishing  and 
testing  point predictions, and improving on those predictions  as  is 
done  in  the rest of physical science. The volume  continues  with  a 
brief,  but comprehensive survey of the literature on 'What Works'  in 
the  way  of  programmes for prisoners, and  concludes  with  a  brief 
presentation  of a computerised system for managing,  monitoring,  and 
assessing inmates' participation in activities throughout sentence  in 
the  interests of effective inmate sentence management,  planning  and 
throughcare.

Volume 2 provides a report on a pilot of the PROBE Sentence Management 
system  introduced  in  volume  1. Conceived in 1991  and  1992  as  a 
flexible,  user  defined behaviour assessment  system,  and  developed 
between 1992 and 1993 when it ran at HMP Parkhurst and HMP  Frankland, 
the  pilot study was overseen by a DIP Steering Group commissioned  by 
the  Director  of  Inmate Programmes during a  DIP  Senior  Management 
Seminar  held at Newbold Revel in March 1992 (DIP Research Report  No. 
2, November 1992). The pilot was completed in January 1994, and volume 
2 serves as an empirical illustration of how the prototype system  ran 
in  an applied context. The volume includes reports from the  Head  of 
Inmate  Activities at HMP Parkhurst and the psychologist  who  oversaw 
the  pilot  at that prison. The volume illustrates  how  comprehensive 
management information can be provided in simple descriptive graphical 
form  as  box-plots which show the distribution of  behaviour  on  the 
landings  and  within  activities, readily  identifying  inmates  with 
scores at the upper and lower ends of the scale. The volume also shows 
how  individual  and  group based reports of  inmate  performance  and 
attendance  can be automatically generated for Heads of Residence  and 
Heads of Activities. All attainment measures are functionally  related 
to  measures  of  control,  and it is shown  how  the  PROBE  Sentence 
Management System can be used to facilitate the maintenance of control 
through  effective,  and positive Sentence Planning  by  providing  an 
infrastructure   within  which  individual  inmate  targets   can   be 
identified,  negotiated, contracted and subsequently monitored by  the 
first-line  staff who have the most contact time with inmates.  It  is 
emphasised  that  it is those staff who are responsible  for  directly 
training and supervising inmates within specific domains of expertise, 
and for want of an adequate technology, such staff's observations  and 
assessments  often go totally unrecorded. The volume  illustrates  how 
the  technology of Sentence Management can be used to  make  effective 
use of such staff's professional assessment skills in the interest  of 
recording  and shaping positive behaviour change throughout  sentence, 
allowing   decisions  to  be  subsequently  made  on  the   basis   of 
differential  levels of attainment. The case is made that since it  is 
here that the Prison Service invests in maximally, it is here that our 
technology  for  monitoring  and recording behaviour  change  must  be 
focused.   Collation,   standardisation  and   presentation   of   the 
information  recorded can be undertaken by computer.  Quality  control 
lies largely in the hands of higher management.
 
Volume  3  provides  a functional specification of  the  entire  PROBE 
system.  Part  one  covers  the logic  and  technology  of  relational 
database  technology,  showing how this relatively  recent  technology 
supports  the application of behaviour science in an applied  setting, 
and  how  such  a system can serve well as  a  Management  Information 
System. Section 1 also outlines the main elements of the PROBE system, 
explaining  how  the communications network functions to  support  the 
entire  system  and  the staff maintaining it.  Section  two  provides 
graphical illustrations of how the system has been used in support  of 
maintaining  control  within the Adult Long Term estate,  how  routine 
profiles  of inmate movements, disciplinary offending and  segregation 
histories  can be generated from local menus, and how profiles at  the 
wing  and establishment levels can be readily produced in  support  of 
operations.  Section  three  shows how the system can  be  used  as  a 
support  system  for  F2054  Sentence  Planning,  drawing  on  monthly 
Sentence  Management data to identify suitable Sentence Plan  targets. 
Thus,  whilst  section  two  outlines  the  technology  of   PROfiling 
BEhaviour,  ie  measuring  and  describing  behaviour,  section  three 
provides a technology for PROgramming BEhaviour, ie providing a  means 
of effectively managing inmate behaviour under the rubric of  Sentence 
Planning. This technology provides managers for the first time with  a 
system  which enables them to effectively manage or  programme  inmate 
activities at the individual and regime level.

Volume 4 provides a detailed description, at the computational  level, 
of  the  programming  which comprises the system.  This  is  the  main 
Technical  Specification  of the PROBE system. Sections  4  through  9 
detail  how  each class of computer system within  PROBE  is  actually 
configured, the software which runs on each system, and how each class 
of  system is scheduled to operate at different stages of the day  and 
week. This includes a detailed description of the automatic  screening 
of  candidates  for  Special  Units,  the  generation  of  comparative 
statistics  for  the dispersal prisons each week,  the  production  of 
daily quality control reports, and so on.

Volumes  5  and  6  list the fixed data  dictionaries  for  the  PROBE 
database  at Adult and Young Offender sites respectively,  along  with 
example  code  for the data entry system. These  two  volumes  specify 
precisely the predicates which are used to classify inmates, the range 
of the valid values for those predicates, and their labels. The  adult 
system  comprises  34 tables of predicates or  relations.  Development 
work  within  the  Young Offender system,  whilst  relatively  recent, 
illustrates that the system can be used as an effective substrate  for 
behaviour science and technology within any convicted population which 
is   practically  concerned  with  Sentence  Planning.  The   Sentence 
Management  records  illustrate how sophisticated  use  of  relational 
theory can be used to extend the data dictionary ad infinitum  without 
having to make structural changes to the data dictionary per se.  From 
a  technical  perspective, this may well be a unique  feature  of  the 
PROBE system.

Volume  7 lists the computer on-line help script for the system.  This 
is  basically  the  user's on-line  manual  which  provides  explicit, 
context  sensitive instructions as to how each field in  the  database 
must be maintained, e.g. the codes for an inmate's index offence,  his 
preconvictions,  and where to find these in the prisoner's record.  As 
changes  are  made to the system over time, new help  scripts  can  be 
automatically   distributed   over   the   electronic   network    and 
automatically installed.

Volume  8 provides the material for a 3 day course on PROBE.  Material 
covered   includes   basic  programming  using  the   4th   Generation 
Programming  Language  (PQL)  provided with  the  system,  illustrated 
examples  of how to use a wide range of output procedures, and how  to 
use  more advanced programming facilities such as TABFILES and  MATRIX 
operations.  In effect, in conjunction with the reference manuals  and 
other  volumes  of the System Specification, this volume  comprises  a 
comprehensive self-instruction course in the PQL programming  language 
which is the basis of all of the report writing facilities within  the 
PROBE system.

Volume  9 provides an illustration of the weekly statistics  generated 
automatically  by the system. These show comparative figures  for  the 
dispersal prisons, and for other PROBE maintaining prisons within  the 
Long Term Category B estate. These statistics include the distribution 
of  security category, sentence length, and so on across PROBE  sites, 
first for the dispersal estate, and then the other category B prisons. 
Additional comparative statistics show control indices by wing  within 
a  prison, and between prisons. Rudimentary data on inmates  who  have 
been  in  Special  Units are compared with  normal  location  inmates, 
illustrating the potential for detailed follow up.

Volume 10 provides a list of the essential procedures held within  the 
PROCEDURE  file of the Data Base Management System.  These  Procedural 
Query  Language routines are an essential part of the PROBE system  at 
each   installed  site.  As  new  systems  are  developed,  they   are 
automatically  distributed  to  all field sites  to  ensure  that  all 
facilities are standardised.

Finally, a General Index is provided. Each of the preceding volumes is 
provided  with  references,  subject  indices,  names  indices,  files 
indices and where appropriate a list of the attributes used within the 
Data  Base  Management  System. This document collates  all  of  those 
indices and references into one convenient reference volume.   

All  volumes  beyond volume 3 are essentially  technical  material.  A 
summary  of  what the system can provide as a  Management  Information 
System  can  be  gleaned from Volume 3, sections 2  and  3.  Managers' 
attention  is  drawn  to the fact that the  comparative  graphics  and 
tables covered in those sections are refreshed each Sunday night,  and 
are electronically available to Psychology Units every monday morning. 
For  specific  coverage of PROBE in support of inmate  activities  and 
Sentence Planning, the reader is referred to volume 2 and section 3 of 
volume  3. For the specific rationale behind the system given what  is 
known  about  normal human decision making and  its  constraints,  the 
reader is referred to volume 1 and to section 1 of volume 3.

The  documentation describes the PROBE system as it was  when  managed 
within  the Directorate of Inmate Programmes. The 1994  reorganization 
of  Headquarters  led  to the loss of the posts  which  developed  and 
supported PROBE. Responsibility for day to day technical management of 
the  system  now  lies with Prison Service  IT  Services,  and  policy 
responsibility with Custody Group. 

The future of the PROBE system therefore rests to a very large  extent 
in  the  hands  of  field staff and it  is  hoped  that  the  provided 
documentation  goes some way towards consolidating the  infrastructure 
which  has been built up over the past eight years. It is  also  hoped 
that  those now contributing towards the federated system will  insist 
on  the continuation of a high level of central  support,  maintenance 
and  oversight  of  the  system  sufficient  to  sustain   comparative 
profiling  which  is an essential element of  overall  system  quality 
control. Quality control and feedback being the sine qua non of  PROBE 
as a system, with the changes in system management in 1994, it must be 
emphasised that the integrity of the system now rests much more so  in 
the hands of field staff. The future integrity and standardisation  of 
the system will depend as much upon feedback to central support on the 
accuracy  of  the weekly statistical profiles made  available  on  the 
central system, as it will on local quality control. 

-- 
David Longley
